acechip
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 1:59 am

airtechy wrote:
In the context of trying to understand what happened here, it would be helpful if we knew exactly when the pilot made his request to return because of aircraft problems (I don't think it has been confirmed if he said "control problems") to better construct a "timeline". If he made the request before the point where the flaps would normally be retracted, that would seem to toss MCAS being the issue as it is locked out until they are retracted (unless there is something in the control loops we don't know about). Also if the autopilot had been selected, I believe that precludes the MCAS as it only works when it is off (manual flight). I don't know if Live ATC records at that airport, or if it is timestamped.

If would be interesting to hear from MAX pilots as to when the autopilot is selected, but I am led to believe that it is soon after the gear is raised.

I don't think I would hesitate to fly a MAX8 flight, but if the pilot was standing in the cockpit door greeting passengers I would probably ask him if he knew what MCAS was.

More importantly, whether s/he knows how to switch the stab buttons off. Isn't it ironical that the system that was designed to prevent instability needs to be switched off to regain stability.
 
RJWNL
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 1:59 am

flynlr wrote:
anyone have lat and long coordinates of actual impact site?

The most precise I have been able to find is journalists that visited the site saying on Twitter it is East of Bishoftu near the village of Ejere, which is at 8.782542, 39.262834
 
flyer737sw
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 2:00 am

I can see Boeing completely deal away with the MCAS.
In what phase of flight would this system ever need to be used is beyond me? This system was designed primarily for power on stalls per say. Not to mention, most airlines are allowed to activate autopilot at 500-1,000 AGL, which would deactivate this system anyway.
If your stab trim number is set for takeoff then what is the issue? Sure, once on climb out and the plane is accelerating and creating lift then a nose down trim is required but this is nothing new.
I also wonder, if when the MCAS system
Is activated, if any alert is set.
 
AA777
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 2:04 am

United1 wrote:
First my condolences to all of the families/friends of the crew and passengers on that flight...I can not even begin to imagine how difficult of a time this is for all of them.

To everyone calling for the MAX to be grounded perhaps we should just take a step back and see what the investigation from this crash and the Lion Air crash turn up. Since the MAX took its first flight there have been incidents involving 737NG & A320ceo aircraft that haven't been fully explained either (MS804 comes to mind.) Yet they are perfectly safe aircraft when flown and maintained properly. Despite all of the engine issues on the NEO and these two MAX crashes both types have proved themselves statistically to be safe reliable aircraft.


I am not sure that those statistics hold up for the MAX.... where are your stats coming from? TWO disasters with hundreds dead, in a matter of 6 months, with only 350 or so aircraft delivered. Of course there have been incidents with the 737NG and A320 series, but given how many of those planes are in service. The 738 (NG) has had 6 accidents/crashes with over 20 years of service. The A320 has had 13 fatal accidents/crashes, with 30 years of service. The 737 MAX has had two massively fatal crashes within two years. I dont think those statistics look good. If we keep this rate up, with a crash every six months, there would be 40 deadly crashes in 20 years. That's not a good record.
 
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hongkongflyer
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 2:04 am

prinxe1 wrote:
hongkongflyer wrote:
Finn350 wrote:

Good point, but there is loss of altitude in the climb phase, and while troubleshooting that they could have ended in (seemingly) controlled flight into terrain.


That is a bad point. Double check the alatitude of the airport and you will find how low the plane was actually flying above the land


I was thinking the same thing with the terrain. I wonder how high the terrain in that area around the airport is since all the other flights do go up fast and do a right turn bank. Looking at the raw flight24 data it looks like the plane dropped about 400ft from 8100ft to 7200ft after take off. Since the plane was so close to the ground maybe it dropped again and ran into the terrain or maybe the plane just ran into the terrain at that altitude. The speed of the plane never seem to drop and kept on increasing in the flight24 data. If you look at the crash site pictures there is pretty much just mounds of dirt and smalls peieces of plane which indicates a high speed impact with the ground and a post crash fire.


Clearly the plane crashed at a flat area, not into a terrain
 
acechip
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 2:05 am

flyer737sw wrote:
I can see Boeing completely deal away with the MCAS.
In what phase of flight would this system ever need to be used is beyond me? This system was designed primarily for power on stalls per say. Not to mention, most airlines are allowed to activate autopilot at 500-1,000 AGL, which would deactivate this system anyway.
If your stab trim number is set for takeoff then what is the issue? Sure, once on climb out and the plane is accelerating and creating lift then a nose down trim is required but this is nothing new.
I also wonder, if when the MCAS system
Is activated, if any alert is set.

On a related note, here is a question. What if the temporary fix was to restrict the engine thrust a bit? Would it prevent the nose up attitude and minimise the tendencies of MCAS kicking in ? (Apart from this not being in line with the payload/range considerations of the airplane design etc)
 
hivue
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 2:15 am

brunoguemes wrote:
I do not understand what is being discussed. Why wouldn't a great plane also be easy to fly and intuitive?


If that ware the case generally then we'd all be flying to work and the grocery store instead of driving.

It's my understanding that modern 4th and 5th generation military jet fighters are pretty easy to fly. I believe they were designed this way because the pilots have to devote so much of their time and energy to the weapons and defensive systems that they can't be wasting any of it on a hard to fly airplane. But the way the airplanes are made easy to fly is to design them inherently unstable and build in (at great cost) stability with computers and FBW.
"You're sitting. In a chair. In the SKY!!" ~ Louis C.K.
 
wjcandee
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 2:18 am

airtechy wrote:
I don't know if Live ATC records at that airport, or if it is timestamped.


It doesn't.
 
Avgeek21
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 2:20 am

airtechy wrote:
If would be interesting to hear from MAX pilots as to when the autopilot is selected, but I am led to believe that it is soon after the gear is raised.


I personally always fly manually up to 10,000ft. MAX or NG. But most guys/girls select it typically around acceleration altitude. (800ft AGL minimum)
Last edited by Avgeek21 on Mon Mar 11, 2019 2:21 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
acechip
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 2:21 am

AA777 wrote:
United1 wrote:
First my condolences to all of the families/friends of the crew and passengers on that flight...I can not even begin to imagine how difficult of a time this is for all of them.

To everyone calling for the MAX to be grounded perhaps we should just take a step back and see what the investigation from this crash and the Lion Air crash turn up. Since the MAX took its first flight there have been incidents involving 737NG & A320ceo aircraft that haven't been fully explained either (MS804 comes to mind.) Yet they are perfectly safe aircraft when flown and maintained properly. Despite all of the engine issues on the NEO and these two MAX crashes both types have proved themselves statistically to be safe reliable aircraft.


I am not sure that those statistics hold up for the MAX.... where are your stats coming from? TWO disasters with hundreds dead, in a matter of 6 months, with only 350 or so aircraft delivered. Of course there have been incidents with the 737NG and A320 series, but given how many of those planes are in service. The 738 (NG) has had 6 accidents/crashes with over 20 years of service. The A320 has had 13 fatal accidents/crashes, with 30 years of service. The 737 MAX has had two massively fatal crashes within two years. I dont think those statistics look good. If we keep this rate up, with a crash every six months, there would be 40 deadly crashes in 20 years. That's not a good record.


I feel that this zeal to ensure backward compatibility for cost considerations is one of the problems. Regulators must take a call on what constitutes a new aircraft type. The A320neo PW issue is also an equally uncomfortable situation to have, frankly.
 
wjcandee
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 2:22 am

JAAlbert wrote:

Could blocked pitot tubes alone have caused such an accident?


Not if the pilot who had more than 200 hours took control, and remembered the proper thrust setting/deck angle combination at which the thing should normally fly.

I wonder what happens in a task-saturation environment in a transport-category aircraft where the person in the right seat has 200TT.
 
hivue
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 2:22 am

hongkongflyer wrote:
Clearly the plane crashed at a flat area, not into a terrain


In this context "terrain" is anything that isn't air.
"You're sitting. In a chair. In the SKY!!" ~ Louis C.K.
 
flyer737sw
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 2:25 am

Also, is this the point where automation has gone to far?
Classic case is GPS cell phone driving! Situational awareness is out the door.
 
ltbewr
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 2:28 am

Let us also recall the 'rudder issues' crashes (UA 585, US 427 near PIT) of previous versions of the 737 that took years and a plane (Eastwind 517) that 'survived' a rudder control problem, was examined and helped determined what was happening.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_737_rudder_issues
Perhaps similar research needs to be done as to the 737MAX's with close calls during initial climb to consider possible reasons for the lost of Lion Air and ET's 737MAX's.
 
hamiltondaniel
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 2:29 am

CO953 wrote:

People are getting dumber. The smartphone has screwed up the average attention span. Secondly, the generation of airline pilots who nursed shot-up P-47s back to base with 50mm cannon holes all through the airframe, missing an elevator and an aileron and a canopy, is gone. People don't work mechanical problems as instinctively anymore because they're not exposed to them. No one fixes a toaster anymore. (Almost) no one rigs a carburetor with a coathanger. Kids don't play much sandlot baseball anymore.



Ah, yes, it was always better in the Stone Age...

Besides not knowing what sandlot baseball has to do with anything, I'll simply point out that the generation you're so intent on admiring through rose-tinted glasses crashed a lot more airplanes. Today's aircraft are the safest that have ever flown, and today's pilots are the safest that have ever flown them. Yes, planes still come down. Yes, when they do it's still usually because of the pilot. Both things happen much, much less frequently than they used to. Your central thesis of generational degradation doesn't have any statistical basis, and it smacks of forgetting that the Good Old Days never really existed.

Would you rather get on a commercial airliner tomorrow, or back in 1950?

We have no idea what caused this crash. I doubt it was not spending enough time fixing toasters. Stick to the data.
 
GalaxyFlyer
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 2:30 am

Amazing. 18 pages of opinions, suggestions and ideas of criminal prosecution based not ONE fact of what happened beyond airplane hit Planet Earth shortly after departure. The only fact known—Newton was right. No CVR, no FDR, no maintenance records, no preliminary report—NOTHING.

GF
Last edited by GalaxyFlyer on Mon Mar 11, 2019 2:32 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
hivue
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 2:30 am

flyer737sw wrote:
I can see Boeing completely deal away with the MCAS.


In that case the airplane would lose its certification. To regain certification, Boeing would have to come up with a fix for the problem that MCAS currently addresses.
"You're sitting. In a chair. In the SKY!!" ~ Louis C.K.
 
LeoNYC
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 2:32 am

adnoguez wrote:
I’m socked. I’m not an airliner expert but I do work with some serious numbers. Two airplanes crashed at take off, both brand new 737MAX, that’s way beyond luck. It’s almost impossible by common statistics. Statistically they should ground 737 MaX, it’s a serious anomaly. I also undestand that we need more data to link issues; it’s a dilemma.
But both accidents had something else in common - both were flown by shitty airlines with poor safety record and a long history of violations. This would be a pure speculation but I have a feeling that whenever the pilots get a brand new airplane with the many new features and interfaces, the rigid training and regulations make a huge difference. In other words, there is a reason why so many European and US airlines now flying 737 MAX did not seem to have any issues, it's because they take training and the introduction of the new airlines into service with great care and take huge safety precautions. And if you look how many planes were delivered already and are flying, it's a substantial number: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_B ... es_by_year

American Airlines has 24 planes in active service, which is as much as some small airlines have in total: https://www.planespotters.net/productio ... us=current

Certainly, need to wait and see what the investigation will show.
 
kalvado
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 2:34 am

ltbewr wrote:
Let us also recall the 'rudder issues' crashes (UA 585, US 427 near PIT) of previous versions of the 737 that took years and a plane (Eastwind 517) that 'survived' a rudder control problem, was examined and helped determined what was happening.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_737_rudder_issues
Perhaps similar research needs to be done as to the 737MAX's with close calls during initial climb to consider possible reasons for the lost of Lion Air and ET's 737MAX's.

were there such close calls to begin with?
Lion was a pretty isolated hero to zero event, with exactly 2 flights affected and analyzed. ET previous flights are said to be uneventful.
People are speculating about MCAS being the issue; I would expect some new three or four-letter word to become hot this time
 
Bhoy
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 2:34 am

China has grounded the 737Max fleet domestically.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/ ... SApp_Other

[quite]China’s aviation authorities have ordered the country’s airlines to ground their Boeing 737 Max 8 jets after a crash in Ethiopia killed 157 people.

The disaster was the second involving the new aircraft in the last four months. In October, a Lion Air plane crashed into the sea off the Indonesian capital of Jakarta, killing all 189 onboard.

On Sunday, Ethiopian Airlines flight ET 302, on its way to Nairobi from Addis Ababa, crashed six minutes after take-off. The cause of the crash is unknown, but Cayman Airlines has suspended operations of its two Boeing 737 Max 8 planes while investigations into the cause of the disaster continued.

China’s civil aviation administration (CAAC) issued a notice on Monday at 9am local time requesting domestic airlines suspend the commercial operation of the Boeing 737- Max 8 aircraft before 6pm.

Referring to the Boeing 737 Max 8 as a Boeing 737-8, the CAAC said it made the decision “in view of the fact that the two air crashes were newly delivered Boeing 737-8 aircraft” and had “certain similarities.”

The regulator said the grounding of the planes was “in line with our pCrinciple of zero tolerance for safety hazards and strict control of safety risks”. The CAA said it would be contacting US aviation authorities and Boeing before restoring flights of the aircraft.

Roughly 60 of the Boeing 737 Max 8 planes have been delivered to about a dozen Chinese airlines since the new craft was released. (Continues)[/quote]
 
cdin844
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 2:35 am

LeoNYC wrote:
But both accidents had something else in common - both were flown by shitty airlines with poor safety record and a long history of violations.


This has been discussed at length and I don’t think ethiopian Airlines actually has a poor safety record?
 
kalvado
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 2:37 am

hivue wrote:
flyer737sw wrote:
I can see Boeing completely deal away with the MCAS.


In that case the airplane would lose its certification. To regain certification, Boeing would have to come up with a fix for the problem that MCAS currently addresses.

SOmeone else mentioned that solution is being developed, without extra details. I don't see a simple one here, but Boeing definitely has more skill and data than entire forum combined.
 
LeoNYC
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 2:37 am

GalaxyFlyer wrote:
Amazing. 18 pages of opinions, suggestions and ideas of criminal prosecution based not ONE fact of what happened beyond airplane hit Planet Earth shortly after departure. The only fact known—Newton was right. No CVR, no FDR, no maintenance records, no preliminary report—NOTHING.

GF
Yes. And take this article from 2010. And notice the similar circumstance - a new airplane (for this airline) at the time.

https://www.france24.com/en/20100125-ai ... boeing-737

The tragic crash of the Ethiopian Airlines Boeing 737 on Monday is all the more shocking for both the airline’s excellent safety record and the fact that the aeroplane was relatively new, an industry expert tells FRANCE 24.
ADVERTISING

Ethiopian Airlines, who lost a jet in a crash off the coast of Lebanon on Monday, is one of Africa's fastest growing airlines whose safety record has been “a beacon” for the rest of Africa.
 
LeoNYC
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 2:38 am

cdin844 wrote:
LeoNYC wrote:
But both accidents had something else in common - both were flown by shitty airlines with poor safety record and a long history of violations.


This has been discussed at length and I don’t think ethiopian Airlines actually has a poor safety record?
You are right. I stand corrected. It does not objectively, statistically, have a poor safety record, but it had a similar and major deadline crash in 2010.
 
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Francoflier
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 2:39 am

wjcandee wrote:
I wonder what happens in a task-saturation environment in a transport-category aircraft where the person in the right seat has 200TT.


THAT is a very good question.

And if this is the event that finally makes authorities reconsider whether it is a good idea to put a 200 hour wonder straight off a Cessna into the right seat of a transport category jet just because they were pressured to do so by airlines trying to bypass a pilot shortage and paying their crew decent wages, then maybe some good could come out of this tragedy.

[/rant]
I'll do my own airline. With Blackjack. And hookers. In fact, forget the airline.
 
hz747300
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 2:41 am

cdin844 wrote:
LeoNYC wrote:
But both accidents had something else in common - both were flown by shitty airlines with poor safety record and a long history of violations.


This has been discussed at length and I don’t think ethiopian Airlines actually has a poor safety record?


Seemingly no, most of their incidents seem to be hijackings. But the crash in Lebanon was determined to be poor CRM, no?
Keep on truckin'...
 
PlanesNTrains
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 2:43 am

traindoc wrote:
Clearly 2 crashes of the 737 MAX in 6 months raises all kinds of questions and red flags! And it may be a while before we get concrete answers. However, for me, I will avoid the MAX until we have those answers. Which means my flight, on a UA MAX 9, from MCO-IAH in early April will be changed, even if it costs me a change fee!


I would tell them point blank that you are uncomfortable flying in an unsafe plane and want the change fee waived. If they don’t do it, get on Twitter.
-Dave


MAX’d out on MAX threads. If you are starting a thread, and it’s about the MAX - stop. There’s already a thread that covers it.
 
dampfnudel
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 2:45 am

GalaxyFlyer wrote:
Amazing. 18 pages of opinions, suggestions and ideas of criminal prosecution based not ONE fact of what happened beyond airplane hit Planet Earth shortly after departure. The only fact known—Newton was right.

GF

People have a right to be concerned, within reason of course. Especially if their travel plans in the near future include the MAX. I know some here will say I’ll fly the MAX tomorrow without hesitation. That’s fine, but that doesn’t mean you speak for everyone. Hopefully, the investigation will connect the dots and we’ll know for sure if we have a case of Boeing biting off more than it could chew with the MAX or something else, perhaps something much more manageable and far less damaging. For Boeing’s sake, I’m hoping that it’s something else.
A313 332 343 B703 712 722 732 73G 738 739 741 742 744 752 762 76E 764 772 AT5 CR9 D10 DHH DHT F27 GRM L10 M83 TU5

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ikramerica
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 2:47 am

AA777 wrote:
United1 wrote:
First my condolences to all of the families/friends of the crew and passengers on that flight...I can not even begin to imagine how difficult of a time this is for all of them.

To everyone calling for the MAX to be grounded perhaps we should just take a step back and see what the investigation from this crash and the Lion Air crash turn up. Since the MAX took its first flight there have been incidents involving 737NG & A320ceo aircraft that haven't been fully explained either (MS804 comes to mind.) Yet they are perfectly safe aircraft when flown and maintained properly. Despite all of the engine issues on the NEO and these two MAX crashes both types have proved themselves statistically to be safe reliable aircraft.


I am not sure that those statistics hold up for the MAX.... where are your stats coming from? TWO disasters with hundreds dead, in a matter of 6 months, with only 350 or so aircraft delivered. Of course there have been incidents with the 737NG and A320 series, but given how many of those planes are in service. The 738 (NG) has had 6 accidents/crashes with over 20 years of service. The A320 has had 13 fatal accidents/crashes, with 30 years of service. The 737 MAX has had two massively fatal crashes within two years. I dont think those statistics look good. If we keep this rate up, with a crash every six months, there would be 40 deadly crashes in 20 years. That's not a good record.

You and others talk of “only” 350 delivered. 350 is a large number for some programs.

But I do think grounding all Max might be warranted, but only to inspect all AoA sensors and pitot tubes, and to make sure all pilots at each airline are aware of what to do in a runaway trim situation.

Then again, maybe all pilots for all types should get a refresher in that problem specific to their aircraft.
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
PlanesNTrains
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 2:54 am

GalaxyFlyer wrote:
Amazing. 18 pages of opinions, suggestions and ideas of criminal prosecution based not ONE fact of what happened beyond airplane hit Planet Earth shortly after departure. The only fact known—Newton was right. No CVR, no FDR, no maintenance records, no preliminary report—NOTHING.

GF


Well, we know a few things from reports etc:

1. The plane radioed that they were having control issues right after departure. I believe it was unreliable airspeed data.

2. The FR24 data (fwiw) as analyzed by Rheiwalder indicates a similar pattern to JT610.

3. I personally cannot discount the fact that two MAX aircraft encountered control issues shortly after takeoff and ended up diving to the ground.

They may not be facts as outlined in a final report but it’s not just “a plane crashed”.
-Dave


MAX’d out on MAX threads. If you are starting a thread, and it’s about the MAX - stop. There’s already a thread that covers it.
 
CO953
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 2:56 am

hamiltondaniel wrote:
CO953 wrote:

People are getting dumber. The smartphone has screwed up the average attention span. Secondly, the generation of airline pilots who nursed shot-up P-47s back to base with 50mm cannon holes all through the airframe, missing an elevator and an aileron and a canopy, is gone. People don't work mechanical problems as instinctively anymore because they're not exposed to them. No one fixes a toaster anymore. (Almost) no one rigs a carburetor with a coathanger. Kids don't play much sandlot baseball anymore.



Ah, yes, it was always better in the Stone Age...

Besides not knowing what sandlot baseball has to do with anything, I'll simply point out that the generation you're so intent on admiring through rose-tinted glasses crashed a lot more airplanes. Today's aircraft are the safest that have ever flown, and today's pilots are the safest that have ever flown them. Yes, planes still come down. Yes, when they do it's still usually because of the pilot. Both things happen much, much less frequently than they used to. Your central thesis of generational degradation doesn't have any statistical basis, and it smacks of forgetting that the Good Old Days never really existed.

Would you rather get on a commercial airliner tomorrow, or back in 1950?

We have no idea what caused this crash. I doubt it was not spending enough time fixing toasters. Stick to the data.


My point was that with the increase of automation in all aspects of life, people are increasingly out of touch with how to fix a malfunctioning device on the fly. I don't know how old you are, but I'm old enough to have jumped out of a car at a stop light and rig a flooding carburetor with a nail I found on my floorboard, and get back behind the driver's seat before the light turned green. Girlfriend at the time was impressed and stopped ragging me (as much) about my old cars.

My statistical basis of generational degradation can be somewhat proved through the simple experiment of sitting at a traffic intersection and counting how many cars get through the average left-turn arrow now, compared to 20 years ago when they weren't bobbing their heads up and down and poking at a device, and every third car introduces an unacceptable delay due to distraction. Back then, people drove. Now, people browse, and drive when they feel like it. This is a major cause of traffic.congestion.

Sticking to data without peripheral vision can drive one straight into a lake, as has happened more than once with people fixated on GPS directions. I'm not trying to take this off-topic, because my points certainly weren't. Sandlot baseball in neighborhoods everywhere was the de-facto farm team for American pros. Look at how many American citizens play for Major League Baseball teams now, as opposed to 50 years ago. Akin to fewer GA pilots learning the craft. That's what it had to do with the topic, to spell it out. To take it back firmly to "data," Boeing has recommended that pilots perform what sometimes is called a "kludge," by disabling a system (MCAS) which, in essence, is malfunctioning because it is fighting the pilots. That doesn't seem much better than my jumping out of my car to rig my carburetor before the engine catches fire from a stuck float, does it? In fact, what we see here is a "kludge" of a "kludge." A double-kludge. The first kludge is the MCAS to prevent the engine nacelles from stalling the aircraft, and the second kludge is for the pilots to figure out that the first kludge is malfunctioning and to disable it before it crashes the plane. I know that sounds harsh, but isn't that close to what we're dealing with here?

In the old days, I think the average pilot had disassembled more farm equipment and was more practiced in cause and effect, especially in mechanized countries.
Fixing an appliance exercises the brain. Too bad too few people do it anymore. This shrinks the pilot pool, in my opinion. Just my 2 cents.

I won't take this discussion any farther, but it does circle back to overloading the pilots with the necessity to diagnose a glitchy system and - while the world waits for the Lion Air conclusion - successfully implement the "Boeing Kludge" at low altitude and not crash the aircraft. I don't feel like we are in a good spot. Boeing, NTSB, FAA, had better put the pedal to the metal here, for a number of reasons.
Last edited by CO953 on Mon Mar 11, 2019 3:16 am, edited 9 times in total.
 
CX Flyboy
Posts: 6118
Joined: Sun Dec 26, 1999 6:10 pm

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 3:01 am

Sorry if this has been asked elsewhere before but does the MCAS function have an inhibit based on altitude or time after takeoff? or is it operating immediately whenever airborne?
 
airtechy
Posts: 704
Joined: Sun Dec 24, 2006 7:35 am

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 3:02 am

Avgeek21 wrote:
airtechy wrote:
If would be interesting to hear from MAX pilots as to when the autopilot is selected, but I am led to believe that it is soon after the gear is raised.


I personally always fly manually up to 10,000ft. MAX or NG. But most guys/girls select it typically around acceleration altitude. (800ft AGL minimum)


Thanks for the reply! Sounds like to a certain degree it is up to the pilot.
 
PlanesNTrains
Posts: 9527
Joined: Tue Feb 01, 2005 4:19 pm

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 3:09 am

LeoNYC wrote:
cdin844 wrote:
LeoNYC wrote:
But both accidents had something else in common - both were flown by shitty airlines with poor safety record and a long history of violations.


This has been discussed at length and I don’t think ethiopian Airlines actually has a poor safety record?
You are right. I stand corrected. It does not objectively, statistically, have a poor safety record, but it had a similar and major deadline crash in 2010.


So nine years ago a crew screwed up and that somehow makes them a poor airline?
-Dave


MAX’d out on MAX threads. If you are starting a thread, and it’s about the MAX - stop. There’s already a thread that covers it.
 
Flightsimboy
Posts: 1772
Joined: Sun Sep 11, 2005 12:49 pm

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 3:12 am

About time!!

Breaking: China Grounding Boeing 737 MAX Aircraft

https://www.fliegerfaust.com/aviation-n ... 57248.html
LAX772LR - "Answer to goofy question:" in response to my question about the B737-MAX8 being grounded. 48 hours later all B737-MAX8 grounded worldwide. Go figure!!
 
adnoguez
Posts: 5
Joined: Mon Jan 08, 2018 4:28 am

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 3:13 am

absolute numbers looks scary given the industry standards.
 
GalaxyFlyer
Posts: 3147
Joined: Fri Jan 01, 2016 4:44 am

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 3:18 am

And you make your judgements on the MAX’s design from how many years in aviation engineering?

GF
 
JAAlbert
Posts: 1931
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2006 12:43 pm

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 3:18 am

traindoc wrote:
Clearly 2 crashes of the 737 MAX in 6 months raises all kinds of questions and red flags! And it may be a while before we get concrete answers. However, for me, I will avoid the MAX until we have those answers. Which means my flight, on a UA MAX 9, from MCO-IAH in early April will be changed, even if it costs me a change fee!


Living in the USA, I just don't have a worry flying the MAX. I have not heard the US-4 (SWA included) make any mention of operational issues involving the MAX. Perhaps they're all in a grand conspiracy to conceal the truth (and hide that the earth is truly flat) but aside from such notions, we love to complain in the US, and post our complaints on social media. I think we'd have heard of of problems with the MAX from our domestic carriers if such issues arose.

We must have some MAX pilots on this forum, gents and ladies, what is your preliminary assessment and what has been your experience with the MAX?

It seems to me that this accident (as most do) has a multitude of failures that led to a catastrophic ending. Just blaming the MCAS - if it played any part - doesn't seem to solve the mystery.

What is clear from what little we know now is that the pilots experienced difficulties as early as lift off and they never gained sufficient altitude. Without altitude these pilots had no time or space to correct the issue(s) they were facing. It must have been an awful six minutes for the flight crew.
 
BigPlaneGuy13
Posts: 23
Joined: Fri Nov 16, 2018 2:01 am

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 3:22 am

Flightsimboy wrote:
About time!!

Breaking: China Grounding Boeing 737 MAX Aircraft

https://www.fliegerfaust.com/aviation-n ... 57248.html


It is also being reported that Boeing will now delay the reveal of the 777X:

https://www.cnn.com/2019/03/10/business/boeing-777x-debut-postponed/index.html
 
CO953
Posts: 511
Joined: Tue Jan 08, 2013 4:05 am

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 3:24 am

JAAlbert wrote:
traindoc wrote:
Clearly 2 crashes of the 737 MAX in 6 months raises all kinds of questions and red flags! And it may be a while before we get concrete answers. However, for me, I will avoid the MAX until we have those answers. Which means my flight, on a UA MAX 9, from MCO-IAH in early April will be changed, even if it costs me a change fee!


Living in the USA, I just don't have a worry flying the MAX. I have not heard the US-4 (SWA included) make any mention of operational issues involving the MAX. Perhaps they're all in a grand conspiracy to conceal the truth (and hide that the earth is truly flat) but aside from such notions, we love to complain in the US, and post our complaints on social media. I think we'd have heard of of problems with the MAX from our domestic carriers if such issues arose.

We must have some MAX pilots on this forum, gents and ladies, what is your preliminary assessment and what has been your experience with the MAX?

It seems to me that this accident (as most do) has a multitude of failures that led to a catastrophic ending. Just blaming the MCAS - if it played any part - doesn't seem to solve the mystery.

What is clear from what little we know now is that the pilots experienced difficulties as early as lift off and they never gained sufficient altitude. Without altitude these pilots had no time or space to correct the issue(s) they were facing. It must have been an awful six minutes for the flight crew.


I agree with earlier posters that it's exceedingly unlikely that they took off without flaps. But contaminated fuel always has to be considered, too. Amid the discussion of MCAS, which without question needs fixing yesterday even without this new tragedy, sure there are many other things that could have caused this.
 
Flightsimboy
Posts: 1772
Joined: Sun Sep 11, 2005 12:49 pm

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 3:27 am

BigPlaneGuy13 wrote:
Flightsimboy wrote:
About time!!

Breaking: China Grounding Boeing 737 MAX Aircraft

https://www.fliegerfaust.com/aviation-n ... 57248.html


It is also being reported that Boeing will now delay the reveal of the 777X:

https://www.cnn.com/2019/03/10/business/boeing-777x-debut-postponed/index.html


I was thinking of the Mar 13 reveal. It does make sense to have that delayed.
LAX772LR - "Answer to goofy question:" in response to my question about the B737-MAX8 being grounded. 48 hours later all B737-MAX8 grounded worldwide. Go figure!!
 
falconkutscher
Posts: 18
Joined: Wed Dec 05, 2012 4:23 pm

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 3:30 am

MikeAlpha95 wrote:
Does someone knows the SOP's from Ethiopian ? On which FL/Altitude does they engage the AP?

Because as already mentioned: Autopilot on --> no MCAS


Acc to ET SOP: On 737 usualy 400 ft, but you may handfly as long as you want.
 
phugoid1982
Posts: 53
Joined: Sat Sep 10, 2016 4:02 am

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 3:38 am

I would imagine requiring all commercial pilots to have Aeronautical Engineering degrees would be overkill to gain a better grasp of the physics of flight but can any commercial pilots shed some light on how rigorous ground schools are on average in exposing pilots to Flight Mechanics given how the MCAS system affects static and dynamic stability of the MAX s well as the extra lift from the nacelles ohaving a destabilizing effect during AOA perturbations.

I refer specifically to concepts like Longitudinal Stability, Aerodynamic Center, Neutral point, Phugoid, Short Period Modes as well as lateral directional dynamics, Dutch Roll, Spiral Etc...

Just trying to to a grasp what the average pilot with a non technical background gets exposed to. Thanks
Last edited by phugoid1982 on Mon Mar 11, 2019 3:56 am, edited 2 times in total.
 
Flightsimboy
Posts: 1772
Joined: Sun Sep 11, 2005 12:49 pm

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 3:49 am

LAX772LR wrote:
Flightsimboy wrote:
Will a third crash of a Boeing 737 Max 8 with an operator for less than three months and crashing less than ten minutes after take off, actually have them take note?

Answer to goofy question:
if the contributing factors were similar, yes. If not, no.
Only way to know, is find out what the contributing factors ACTUALLY are, and not just assume them to be the same based on the fact that it's the same aircraft.


Not so goofy anymore, eh!!

China grounds Boeing 737 MAX planes after Ethiopian air crash

https://www-m.cnn.com/2019/03/10/africa ... cnn.com%2F
LAX772LR - "Answer to goofy question:" in response to my question about the B737-MAX8 being grounded. 48 hours later all B737-MAX8 grounded worldwide. Go figure!!
 
braniff2hav
Posts: 159
Joined: Mon Nov 02, 2015 9:20 pm

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 3:50 am

American Airlines is cancelling some 737 flights for tomorrow, 11Mar. I see two cancelled out of MSY to DFW, DFW LAX, DFW SEA, SLC, MSP and many other routes.
 
AMollenhauer9
Posts: 43
Joined: Mon Apr 25, 2016 9:21 pm

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 3:53 am

braniff2hav wrote:
American Airlines is cancelling some 737 flights for tomorrow, 11Mar. I see two cancelled out of MSY to DFW, DFW LAX, DFW SEA, SLC, MSP and many other routes.


None of these are MAX aircraft. They had to cancel some 737-800 flights for other reasons.
 
Bobloblaw
Posts: 2406
Joined: Fri Jan 13, 2012 1:15 pm

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 3:57 am

braniff2hav wrote:
American Airlines is cancelling some 737 flights for tomorrow, 11Mar. I see two cancelled out of MSY to DFW, DFW LAX, DFW SEA, SLC, MSP and many other routes.



Well are they MAXs?
 
GSOflyerDL
Posts: 16
Joined: Wed Jan 23, 2019 10:00 pm

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 3:58 am

Flightsimboy wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
Flightsimboy wrote:
Will a third crash of a Boeing 737 Max 8 with an operator for less than three months and crashing less than ten minutes after take off, actually have them take note?

Answer to goofy question:
if the contributing factors were similar, yes. If not, no.
Only way to know, is find out what the contributing factors ACTUALLY are, and not just assume them to be the same based on the fact that it's the same aircraft.


Not so goofy anymore, eh!!

China grounds Boeing 737 MAX planes after Ethiopian air crash

https://www-m.cnn.com/2019/03/10/africa ... cnn.com%2F


No need to sound so positively giddy about the grounding by the Chinese. 157 souls perished today, let’s not forget that.
DL Diamond Medallion 360
 
Flightsimboy
Posts: 1772
Joined: Sun Sep 11, 2005 12:49 pm

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 4:04 am

GSOflyerDL wrote:
Flightsimboy wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
Answer to goofy question:
if the contributing factors were similar, yes. If not, no.
Only way to know, is find out what the contributing factors ACTUALLY are, and not just assume them to be the same based on the fact that it's the same aircraft.


Not so goofy anymore, eh!!

China grounds Boeing 737 MAX planes after Ethiopian air crash

https://www-m.cnn.com/2019/03/10/africa ... cnn.com%2F


No need to sound so positively giddy about the grounding by the Chinese. 157 souls perished today, let’s not forget that.


Nothing positively giddy here. It is out of respect of those who perished that I commented on the jet being grounded and was called Goofy. It was a simple return of the news to the poster that all of China has grounded the jet. What amazes me in these threads the very fact that souls have been lost is irrelevant. Just a shame.
LAX772LR - "Answer to goofy question:" in response to my question about the B737-MAX8 being grounded. 48 hours later all B737-MAX8 grounded worldwide. Go figure!!
 
tdlewis90
Posts: 1
Joined: Mon Mar 11, 2019 3:47 am

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 4:07 am

I've always had my suspicions about the design of the engine and the new winglets. There must be a bad wash-out from either one or both of those components which is causing false readings with the flight controls. These false readings are obviously worrisome enough for the pilots to react and it is in that reaction we are seeing dire consequences. I am only hypothesising as we don't know the exact cause of this tragic incident.

This is only coming from a rudimentary physics and engineering background but looking back at the history of aviation, whenever there is change in aircraft design or a advanced new aircraft, regrettably their are always teething problems. What is most distressing is that these problems almost always end with the tragic loss of life. Case in point the DC-10, original 737's, De Havilland Comet, L-1011 etc etc

I concur with China's stance by ordering the grounding of their fleet. I think Boeing needs to send out a world wide directive to ground all 737Max planes until the issue has been identified and a

It takes my mind back to when I flew on the A380 for the first time in 2010, I was due to fly back to Melbourne via Changi on SQ when QF had that monumental engine failure. It was down to the imperious airmanship displayed by that very experience flight crew that they managed to guide that wounded bird back safely. Every airline grounded their A380's who had the RR engines fitted to their aircraft.

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