AntonioMartin
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 4:13 am

My condolences to the loved ones of those who died and to those that met someone on this flight.

Yes, the calls to ground the 737-8 MAX remind me of the DC-10 case in the 70s.

I guess we'll see what happens.
 
pintail21
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 4:25 am

CO953 wrote:
hamiltondaniel wrote:
CO953 wrote:

People are getting dumber. The smartphone has screwed up the average attention span. Secondly, the generation of airline pilots who nursed shot-up P-47s back to base with 50mm cannon holes all through the airframe, missing an elevator and an aileron and a canopy, is gone. People don't work mechanical problems as instinctively anymore because they're not exposed to them. No one fixes a toaster anymore. (Almost) no one rigs a carburetor with a coathanger. Kids don't play much sandlot baseball anymore.



Ah, yes, it was always better in the Stone Age...

Besides not knowing what sandlot baseball has to do with anything, I'll simply point out that the generation you're so intent on admiring through rose-tinted glasses crashed a lot more airplanes. Today's aircraft are the safest that have ever flown, and today's pilots are the safest that have ever flown them. Yes, planes still come down. Yes, when they do it's still usually because of the pilot. Both things happen much, much less frequently than they used to. Your central thesis of generational degradation doesn't have any statistical basis, and it smacks of forgetting that the Good Old Days never really existed.

Would you rather get on a commercial airliner tomorrow, or back in 1950?

We have no idea what caused this crash. I doubt it was not spending enough time fixing toasters. Stick to the data.


My point was that with the increase of automation in all aspects of life, people are increasingly out of touch with how to fix a malfunctioning device on the fly. I don't know how old you are, but I'm old enough to have jumped out of a car at a stop light and rig a flooding carburetor with a nail I found on my floorboard, and get back behind the driver's seat before the light turned green. Girlfriend at the time was impressed and stopped ragging me (as much) about my old cars.

My statistical basis of generational degradation can be somewhat proved through the simple experiment of sitting at a traffic intersection and counting how many cars get through the average left-turn arrow now, compared to 20 years ago when they weren't bobbing their heads up and down and poking at a device, and every third car introduces an unacceptable delay due to distraction. Back then, people drove. Now, people browse, and drive when they feel like it. This is a major cause of traffic.congestion.

Sticking to data without peripheral vision can drive one straight into a lake, as has happened more than once with people fixated on GPS directions. I'm not trying to take this off-topic, because my points certainly weren't. Sandlot baseball in neighborhoods everywhere was the de-facto farm team for American pros. Look at how many American citizens play for Major League Baseball teams now, as opposed to 50 years ago. Akin to fewer GA pilots learning the craft. That's what it had to do with the topic, to spell it out. To take it back firmly to "data," Boeing has recommended that pilots perform what sometimes is called a "kludge," by disabling a system (MCAS) which, in essence, is malfunctioning because it is fighting the pilots. That doesn't seem much better than my jumping out of my car to rig my carburetor before the engine catches fire from a stuck float, does it? In fact, what we see here is a "kludge" of a "kludge." A double-kludge. The first kludge is the MCAS to prevent the engine nacelles from stalling the aircraft, and the second kludge is for the pilots to figure out that the first kludge is malfunctioning and to disable it before it crashes the plane. I know that sounds harsh, but isn't that close to what we're dealing with here?

In the old days, I think the average pilot had disassembled more farm equipment and was more practiced in cause and effect, especially in mechanized countries.
Fixing an appliance exercises the brain. Too bad too few people do it anymore. This shrinks the pilot pool, in my opinion. Just my 2 cents.

I won't take this discussion any farther, but it does circle back to overloading the pilots with the necessity to diagnose a glitchy system and - while the world waits for the Lion Air conclusion - successfully implement the "Boeing Kludge" at low altitude and not crash the aircraft. I don't feel like we are in a good spot. Boeing, NTSB, FAA, had better put the pedal to the metal here, for a number of reasons.


You realize that pilots in those days had mishap rates that are 10+x worse than today’s sketchiest airline right?

Planes are complex. Screen your hires and train your pilots and maintainers and enforce standards.

Remember the reason why MCAS has a bad rep is because Lion Air maintenance botched a repair and had no oversight and dispatched an aircraft that wasn’t flight worthy. Let at least some facts combs out before you go into hysterics people!
 
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kmz
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 4:29 am

Ethiopian just grounded their -8 fleet

https://twitter.com/flyethiopian/status ... 19360?s=21
 
1989worstyear
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 4:33 am

AMollenhauer9 wrote:
braniff2hav wrote:
American Airlines is cancelling some 737 flights for tomorrow, 11Mar. I see two cancelled out of MSY to DFW, DFW LAX, DFW SEA, SLC, MSP and many other routes.


None of these are MAX aircraft. They had to cancel some 737-800 flights for other reasons.


Might be why:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-amer ... SKCN1QO2IP
Stuck at age 15 thanks to the certification date of the A320-200 and my parents' decision to postpone having a kid by 3 years. At least there's Dignitas...
 
Flaps
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 4:41 am

GalaxyFlyer wrote:
Amazing. 18 pages of opinions, suggestions and ideas of criminal prosecution based not ONE fact of what happened beyond airplane hit Planet Earth shortly after departure. The only fact known—Newton was right. No CVR, no FDR, no maintenance records, no preliminary report—NOTHING.

GF

Probably the most intelligent post yet in this entire 18 page pile of drivel.

Forcing myself to read through this entire thread has not only given me a headache but also left me wondering whether to laugh, cry or bang my head against a wall. I just have to keep reminding myself that while I used to come here looking for insight and intelligent debate I now come only for the comedic and entertainment value it provides. It's really a shame what this once fine site has become. I don't really blame the site or the moderators. I think its just a sad reflection of our society over all. Every day we seem to get dumber and more righteous in our stupidity and ignorance than the day before.

Oh well, it is what it is.
 
seat64k
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 4:42 am

Please take your bickering about grounding or not grounding to the relevant thread:

https://www.airliners.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1417545

(Edit: correct url)
 
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Francoflier
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 5:00 am

Flaps wrote:
GalaxyFlyer wrote:
Amazing. 18 pages of opinions, suggestions and ideas of criminal prosecution based not ONE fact of what happened beyond airplane hit Planet Earth shortly after departure. The only fact known—Newton was right. No CVR, no FDR, no maintenance records, no preliminary report—NOTHING.

GF

Probably the most intelligent post yet in this entire 18 page pile of drivel.

Forcing myself to read through this entire thread has not only given me a headache but also left me wondering whether to laugh, cry or bang my head against a wall. I just have to keep reminding myself that while I used to come here looking for insight and intelligent debate I now come only for the comedic and entertainment value it provides. It's really a shame what this once fine site has become. I don't really blame the site or the moderators. I think its just a sad reflection of our society over all. Every day we seem to get dumber and more righteous in our stupidity and ignorance than the day before.

Oh well, it is what it is.


So your theory is that absolutely nothing should be done about the fact that 346 people died within 6 months in the same, brand new, aircraft in eerily similar circumstances?
We should all just pretend it didn't happen and authorities should not do anything about the possibility that it might happen again?

Isn't safety about eliminating unknown risk until it is understood?

It might be completely unrelated to MCAS, the MAX or the Lionair accident, but until we can confirm so, isn't the safe thing to do prevent possible harm in the light of serious doubt?

I wouldn't want to be the regulator who decides to do nothing after this while a similar event, even non-fatal, happens within the next few weeks or months... I'm pretty sure they're all busy evaluating the risk to their careers right about now.
I'll do my own airline. With Blackjack. And hookers. In fact, forget the airline.
 
mysfit
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 5:06 am

No one is saying nothing should be done.

There is a wide spectrum from doing nothing on one end and grounding on the other. They are trying to strike a reasonable balance.

It's not easy. The histrionics don't help anyone though.
 
prinxe1
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 5:11 am

hongkongflyer wrote:
prinxe1 wrote:
hongkongflyer wrote:

That is a bad point. Double check the alatitude of the airport and you will find how low the plane was actually flying above the land


I was thinking the same thing with the terrain. I wonder how high the terrain in that area around the airport is since all the other flights do go up fast and do a right turn bank. Looking at the raw flight24 data it looks like the plane dropped about 400ft from 8100ft to 7200ft after take off. Since the plane was so close to the ground maybe it dropped again and ran into the terrain or maybe the plane just ran into the terrain at that altitude. The speed of the plane never seem to drop and kept on increasing in the flight24 data. If you look at the crash site pictures there is pretty much just mounds of dirt and smalls peieces of plane which indicates a high speed impact with the ground and a post crash fire.


Clearly the plane crashed at a flat area, not into a terrain

the area looks flat but it could slightly elevated ground vs the altitude from where it took off from
 
NWNightfly
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 5:17 am

Magog wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
I never want to see "So easy a child could fly it" in Boeing's marketing material...

I’d love to see that.


Not to inject too much levity into a somber discussion, but I can imagine some airlines would love to see that, too. They could dispense with their cockpit crews almost entirely, and just ask passengers at the gate for a show of hands as to who uses Prepar3D or X-Plane, then draw straws for who gets to be Captain and First Officer for that flight.
 
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zeke
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 5:18 am

CX Flyboy wrote:
Sorry if this has been asked elsewhere before but does the MCAS function have an inhibit based on altitude or time after takeoff? or is it operating immediately whenever airborne?


MCAS operates when flaps are retracted at higher speeds.
Human rights lawyers are "ambulance chasers of the very worst kind.'" - Sky News
 
mysfit
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 5:26 am

Sun up, good weather and apparent difficulty controlling the plane based on the comments from the plane behind.

Certainly sounds like the engines were working and at a high rate of speed.

I dismiss the intentional act theory as very. Very unlikely.

A look out the window or their instruments should have told them they were heading down rapidly. I'm going to assume they were fully aware they were headed down. But was that the result of issues they couldn't control, and did their actions somehow lead to that condition. I suspect something happened and it snowballed quickly. Finding out that sequence is critical to preventing more crashes

This is just my opinion, and I am aware I've rejected numerous possibilities out of hand. Something where the holes in the cheese line up and the result of more than one, single issue. We need data.
 
Yonderlust
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 5:26 am

AMollenhauer9 wrote:
braniff2hav wrote:
American Airlines is cancelling some 737 flights for tomorrow, 11Mar. I see two cancelled out of MSY to DFW, DFW LAX, DFW SEA, SLC, MSP and many other routes.


None of these are MAX aircraft. They had to cancel some 737-800 flights for other reasons.


I heard it was due to overhead bin reconfigerations with Oasis.
 
rbavfan
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 5:28 am

So Lion Air flight crashed 12 min after T-O and Ethiopian Airlines crashed 12 min after T-O. Bith having control issues. Does not look good for Boeing.
 
mysfit
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 5:32 am

I thought today's crash was 6 minutes into flight.
 
LTC8K6
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 5:33 am

rbavfan wrote:
So Lion Air flight crashed 12 min after T-O and Ethiopian Airlines crashed 12 min after T-O. Bith having control issues. Does not look good for Boeing.


If the Ethiopian flight had taken off from RDU and only gained 1,000 feet of altitude before crashing, would you be linking it to the Lion Air crash?
 
NWNightfly
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 5:36 am

rbavfan wrote:
So Lion Air flight crashed 12 min after T-O and Ethiopian Airlines crashed 12 min after T-O. Bith having control issues. Does not look good for Boeing.


The Ethiopian flight crashed 6 min after T-O, but what's a 100% error among friends? :roll:
 
SDFspectator
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 5:58 am

A couple of remarks before the rest of this. I'm not a pilot. I'm not an engineer. I'm not a role model. This is pure speculation. The field elevation is listed as 7656 feet, not 7200 that flightradar has. Things to note are that the runway does run downhill, so that the initial altitude reading may be higher than an airplane that has run the full length of the runway for takeoff. I'm not going to correct up to the real altitude so that everybody who looks at the data from flight radar can do their own comparison if they'd like.

Image

Here's a chart of elapsed time from start of the flightradar data. The airplane becomes airborne for ~15 seconds before settling back onto the runway, where it remained for 10 more seconds.. Initial climb is attained at roughly 93 knots. At this density altitude, the plane would need a large CL and high alpha to liftoff. If the pilot was not smooth with the controls, the likelihood of a the tailskid contacting the runway is high, and depending on the pitch rate, it's entirely possible that the strike may have exceeded the capabilities of the crush cartridge and support structure of the tailskid.

IF the tailskid structure were to fail upwards, there is a chance that the jack-screw assembly could be damaged. Here you can see the cable drum on the jackscrew above the tail skid. Image

An interesting thing to note is that the airplane is still on the ground at 195s elapsed time, very near the end of the runway. The airplane appears to have settled back to the runway again before becoming airborne again after 195 seconds elapsed time. The location per flight radar, line 64 of data is 8.98077N 38.81242E Image

Damage to the jack-screw would likely result in an aircraft very card to handle with the subsequent loss of trim ability and automated trimming systems. Below is a link to a failed takeoff run where the pilot rotated too early, just to show that it is possible to over rotate the thing.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=30&v=Kle80KB_s3I

Note that the RAM aircraft was a 700 without a tail skid. An 800 would have tapped the skid.
 
smartplane
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 6:15 am

BigPlaneGuy13 wrote:
It is also being reported that Boeing will now delay the reveal of the 777X:

https://www.cnn.com/2019/03/10/business/boeing-777x-debut-postponed/index.html

Not least because the X also incorporates MCAS (or similar)?
 
Pluto707
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 6:18 am

As Forbes said: Boeing is embracing outsourcing as a way of lowering costs; so, do all these subcontractors deliver the same quality ? As everything in this age, the hunt for the lowest price is cutting the quality and reliability... I just saw an article, so in simple words: Boeing discovered that the new bigger and more eco-engines did not quite fit on this type of 737 and so they developped software to deal with the new negative load that these engines are causing... this is not how problems should be solved, however in the hunt for lowering fuel costs it was the easiest and quickest way, they could not change the whole concept of a 737, couldnt they...
 
oschkosch
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 6:40 am

Interesting to see China and a few other nations/airlines take the decision of a grounding into their own hands. Very positive reaction IMHO, they are being proactive, unlike the FAA or Boeing.

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ZaphodHarkonnen
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 6:47 am

smartplane wrote:
BigPlaneGuy13 wrote:
It is also being reported that Boeing will now delay the reveal of the 777X:

https://www.cnn.com/2019/03/10/business/boeing-777x-debut-postponed/index.html

Not least because the X also incorporates MCAS (or similar)?


Ummmmm, the B777 is a full FBW system. Totally different to the combination of systems on the older design of the B737. The most plausible reason for a delay is to not cause more PR grief in the middle of a major investigation. Rollouts can wait, the work will still continue behind the scenes.
 
Passions
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 6:49 am

Just looking at pics of the wreckage field, can the CVR/FDR survive such high speed impacts? If they are destroyed, we may never know what downed this plane.
 
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AirlineCritic
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 6:53 am

SDFspectator wrote:
Here's a chart of elapsed time from start of the flightradar data. The airplane becomes airborne for ~15 seconds before settling back onto the runway, where it remained for 10 more seconds.. Initial climb is attained at roughly 93 knots. At this density altitude, the plane would need a large CL and high alpha to liftoff. If the pilot was not smooth with the controls, the likelihood of a the tailskid contacting the runway is high, and depending on the pitch rate, it's entirely possible that the strike may have exceeded the capabilities of the crush cartridge and support structure of the tailskid.


Very interesting, thanks for this. The question though is if we can rely on the FR data to this extent. And if the runway slopes down (or up), might that have played a role?

Do we know what is the exact moment FR switches to air pressure and field elevation as opposed to "0" altitude? Gear weight switches? Speed? Something else?
 
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Starlionblue
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 6:58 am

oschkosch wrote:
Interesting to see China and a few other nations/airlines take the decision of a grounding into their own hands. Very positive reaction IMHO, they are being proactive, unlike the FAA or Boeing.

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Or it is a kneejerk reaction based on incomplete information. A bit too soon to tell IMHO.
"There are no stupid questions, but there are a lot of inquisitive idiots." - John Ringo
 
oschkosch
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 7:02 am

Starlionblue wrote:
oschkosch wrote:
Interesting to see China and a few other nations/airlines take the decision of a grounding into their own hands. Very positive reaction IMHO, they are being proactive, unlike the FAA or Boeing.

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Or it is a kneejerk reaction based on incomplete information. A bit too soon to tell IMHO.
our corporate travel management has now also issued an internal warning against flying the Max. All flights on them to e rebooked immediately. Same as other people here have reported.

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LN-KGL
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 7:02 am

Can these problems with the 737Max danger Boeing's future?
 
SDFspectator
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 7:03 am

Sorry, my post seems to have lost the tail-skid/jackscrew picture and it won't let me edit to show it Image
 
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Starlionblue
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 7:12 am

LN-KGL wrote:
Can these problems with the 737Max danger Boeing's future?


They might endanger their short term stability and market position if a worst-case scenario plays out. Note the below is pure speculation as to a possible worst-case scenario.

If MCAS is found to be a Very Bad Thing (TM) and there is no other reasonable solution to the flight control design, this could force Boeing to go back to the drawing board and redesign the entire control system from scratch. At that point they might as well design an entirely new aircraft, which would take years and cost billions. Meanwhile, the customers holding a backlog of almost 5000 aircraft would want compensation. More billions.

Not a good day out...

Having said that, I very much doubt Boeing would go bankrupt. It is a massive company and commercial aircraft is only one part of it. Furthermore, they're one of the most important defence contractors, so the US government would very much not want them to fail.

oschkosch wrote:
Starlionblue wrote:
oschkosch wrote:
Interesting to see China and a few other nations/airlines take the decision of a grounding into their own hands. Very positive reaction IMHO, they are being proactive, unlike the FAA or Boeing.

Gesendet von meinem SM-G950F mit Tapatalk


Or it is a kneejerk reaction based on incomplete information. A bit too soon to tell IMHO.
our corporate travel management has now also issued an internal warning against flying the Max. All flights on them to e rebooked immediately. Same as other people here have reported.

Gesendet von meinem SM-G950F mit Tapatalk


And your company is not alone. But there simply isn't enough information at this point to know if such a decision will ultimately prove prescient or an overreaction.
"There are no stupid questions, but there are a lot of inquisitive idiots." - John Ringo
 
TTailedTiger
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 7:14 am

tdlewis90 wrote:
I've always had my suspicions about the design of the engine and the new winglets. There must be a bad wash-out from either one or both of those components which is causing false readings with the flight controls. These false readings are obviously worrisome enough for the pilots to react and it is in that reaction we are seeing dire consequences. I am only hypothesising as we don't know the exact cause of this tragic incident.

This is only coming from a rudimentary physics and engineering background but looking back at the history of aviation, whenever there is change in aircraft design or a advanced new aircraft, regrettably their are always teething problems. What is most distressing is that these problems almost always end with the tragic loss of life. Case in point the DC-10, original 737's, De Havilland Comet, L-1011 etc etc

I concur with China's stance by ordering the grounding of their fleet. I think Boeing needs to send out a world wide directive to ground all 737Max planes until the issue has been identified and a

It takes my mind back to when I flew on the A380 for the first time in 2010, I was due to fly back to Melbourne via Changi on SQ when QF had that monumental engine failure. It was down to the imperious airmanship displayed by that very experience flight crew that they managed to guide that wounded bird back safely. Every airline grounded their A380's who had the RR engines fitted to their aircraft.


Oh my. You really think the winglets would be the cause of a crash?
 
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Finn350
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 7:21 am

LN-KGL wrote:
Can these problems with the 737Max danger Boeing's future?


No, as even if the 2nd crash is MCAS related, the issue can most likely be mitigated with a software fix. Everybody knows that basic 737 design is 50 years old, and age shows when new features are implemented..
 
benjjk
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 7:24 am

SDFspectator wrote:
A couple of remarks before the rest of this. I'm not a pilot. I'm not an engineer. I'm not a role model. This is pure speculation. The field elevation is listed as 7656 feet, not 7200 that flightradar has. Things to note are that the runway does run downhill, so that the initial altitude reading may be higher than an airplane that has run the full length of the runway for takeoff. I'm not going to correct up to the real altitude so that everybody who looks at the data from flight radar can do their own comparison if they'd like.

Image

Here's a chart of elapsed time from start of the flightradar data. The airplane becomes airborne for ~15 seconds before settling back onto the runway, where it remained for 10 more seconds.. Initial climb is attained at roughly 93 knots. At this density altitude, the plane would need a large CL and high alpha to liftoff. If the pilot was not smooth with the controls, the likelihood of a the tailskid contacting the runway is high, and depending on the pitch rate, it's entirely possible that the strike may have exceeded the capabilities of the crush cartridge and support structure of the tailskid.

IF the tailskid structure were to fail upwards, there is a chance that the jack-screw assembly could be damaged. Here you can see the cable drum on the jackscrew above the tail skid. Image

An interesting thing to note is that the airplane is still on the ground at 195s elapsed time, very near the end of the runway. The airplane appears to have settled back to the runway again before becoming airborne again after 195 seconds elapsed time. The location per flight radar, line 64 of data is 8.98077N 38.81242E Image

Damage to the jack-screw would likely result in an aircraft very card to handle with the subsequent loss of trim ability and automated trimming systems. Below is a link to a failed takeoff run where the pilot rotated too early, just to show that it is possible to over rotate the thing.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=30&v=Kle80KB_s3I

Note that the RAM aircraft was a 700 without a tail skid. An 800 would have tapped the skid.


Sorry but the FR24 data is not anywhere near accurate enough for that kind of analysis. They show a runway overrun for nearly every takeoff at my local airport. And no 737 can get airborne at 95kts of groundspeed, especially at that density altitude.
 
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seahawk
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 7:24 am

SDFspectator wrote:
A couple of remarks before the rest of this. I'm not a pilot. I'm not an engineer. I'm not a role model. This is pure speculation. The field elevation is listed as 7656 feet, not 7200 that flightradar has. Things to note are that the runway does run downhill, so that the initial altitude reading may be higher than an airplane that has run the full length of the runway for takeoff. I'm not going to correct up to the real altitude so that everybody who looks at the data from flight radar can do their own comparison if they'd like.

Image

Here's a chart of elapsed time from start of the flightradar data. The airplane becomes airborne for ~15 seconds before settling back onto the runway, where it remained for 10 more seconds.. Initial climb is attained at roughly 93 knots. At this density altitude, the plane would need a large CL and high alpha to liftoff. If the pilot was not smooth with the controls, the likelihood of a the tailskid contacting the runway is high, and depending on the pitch rate, it's entirely possible that the strike may have exceeded the capabilities of the crush cartridge and support structure of the tailskid.

IF the tailskid structure were to fail upwards, there is a chance that the jack-screw assembly could be damaged. Here you can see the cable drum on the jackscrew above the tail skid. Image

An interesting thing to note is that the airplane is still on the ground at 195s elapsed time, very near the end of the runway. The airplane appears to have settled back to the runway again before becoming airborne again after 195 seconds elapsed time. The location per flight radar, line 64 of data is 8.98077N 38.81242E Image

Damage to the jack-screw would likely result in an aircraft very card to handle with the subsequent loss of trim ability and automated trimming systems. Below is a link to a failed takeoff run where the pilot rotated too early, just to show that it is possible to over rotate the thing.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=30&v=Kle80KB_s3I

Note that the RAM aircraft was a 700 without a tail skid. An 800 would have tapped the skid.


Investigators would probably be aware of a tail strike right now. Scratches and parts on the runway would be telling.
 
marcelh
Posts: 678
Joined: Wed Jun 19, 2013 12:43 pm

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 7:26 am

pintail21 wrote:
Remember the reason why MCAS has a bad rep is because Lion Air maintenance botched a repair and had no oversight and dispatched an aircraft that wasn’t flight worthy. Let at least some facts combs out before you go into hysterics people!

Boeing should have told all their customers about MCAS in the first place. Should the crash of JT610 also have happened with an 737-800? I don’t want to downplay the faults which have been made by Lion Air maintenance and standards, but sh.t happens. If a critical system doesn’t work properly and nobody knows about it, who is to blame?
 
fsabo
Posts: 197
Joined: Fri Dec 04, 2015 8:41 pm

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 7:33 am

Finn350 wrote:
LN-KGL wrote:
Can these problems with the 737Max danger Boeing's future?


No, as even if the 2nd crash is MCAS related, the issue can most likely be mitigated with a software fix. Everybody knows that basic 737 design is 50 years old, and age shows when new features are implemented..


I think you are correct, but let me be devil's advocate for the sake of debate.

What if the root cause ends up being the altered flight characteristics due to the placement of the larger engines? They are the reason MCAS is there. Suppose the first crash was due to MCAS malfunction. Now suppose the second crash is due to MCAS being inactive.

So now we have an aircraft that has flight characteristics beyond the abilities of the old flight control system. To be safe, the flight control system needs to be modernized. Again, just speculating...
 
2175301
Posts: 1505
Joined: Wed May 16, 2007 11:19 am

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 8:03 am

marcelh wrote:
Boeing should have told all their customers about MCAS in the first place. Should the crash of JT610 also have happened with an 737-800? I don’t want to downplay the faults which have been made by Lion Air maintenance and standards, but sh.t happens. If a critical system doesn’t work properly and nobody knows about it, who is to blame?


Boeing did tell every airline about MCAS and the changes. They also told the FAA in advance; and the FAA agreed that within the USA that specific Pilot training was not required for that change as it was similar to a system on the previous generation 737, and the response procedure did not change.

European Aviation authorities agreed and went along with not requiring Pilot training on that item

But, every airline was told. Now, many of them just followed the what the FAA said was allowed. The Pilots were not trained. The Maintenance people were trained.

Some airlines decided that they should train their Pilots on this and did. That is why you have airlines with pilots who were surprised by the news about the MCAS and pilots from other airlines who knew about it.

Boeing told the Airlines. The FAA and the European equivalent did not require any specific Pilot training on the change.

The Airlines decided if they wanted to train their pilots or not. Some did, most did not.

I hope that helps clear things up.

Have a great day,
 
cuban8
Posts: 231
Joined: Wed Sep 09, 2009 7:17 pm

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 8:07 am

From the sources I have in Ethiopian who were following the 737- 8MAX departure.

Normal takeoff performed.
Once airborne, they reported to the tower they were experiencing unreliable airspeed and requested immediate return.
Last information was that the airplane was uncontrollable.
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Redd
Posts: 1025
Joined: Mon Jan 07, 2013 3:40 am

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 8:08 am

jetblueguy22 wrote:
Redd wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
Wait, so not knowing the exact reason for a crash, the night that it happens, is reason for grounding?

These comments are getting less and less logical as they go.


Once again, look at the Comet, it had an inherent design flaw. If they had grounded the airplane earlier and had done the pressure hull tests it could have saved many lives. The fact that a brand new 737 has crashed twice in such a short period of time is the ultimate RED FLAG, and since we already know there are issues with the MAX, we can conclude that they may be more serious ones. Or, there may not be. But two crashes in such a short period of time, at the same/similar stages of flight indicates a good chance that there is.

Should more people potentially die before someone makes the decision?

The red flag in your post is the fact that you don’t think aviation safety has changed since the days of the comet.


Apparently people who are much more knowledgeable than you or I, have decided that the red flags are serious enough to ground the aircraft.

From what strange place did you draw the conclusion that I don't think aviation aviation has changed since the comet? I believe in learning from mistakes made in the past not to repeat them in the present or future, most thinking people would tell you that that's sound advice.
 
User avatar
MrBren
Posts: 257
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 11:44 am

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 8:10 am

MrBren wrote:
Time to ground all 737MAX, too many casualties.


So finally precaution prevails.
 
marcelh
Posts: 678
Joined: Wed Jun 19, 2013 12:43 pm

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 8:10 am

2175301 wrote:
marcelh wrote:
Boeing should have told all their customers about MCAS in the first place. Should the crash of JT610 also have happened with an 737-800? I don’t want to downplay the faults which have been made by Lion Air maintenance and standards, but sh.t happens. If a critical system doesn’t work properly and nobody knows about it, who is to blame?


Boeing did tell every airline about MCAS and the changes. They also told the FAA in advance; and the FAA agreed that within the USA that specific Pilot training was not required for that change as it was similar to a system on the previous generation 737, and the response procedure did not change.

European Aviation authorities agreed and went along with not requiring Pilot training on that item

But, every airline was told. Now, many of them just followed the what the FAA said was allowed. The Pilots were not trained. The Maintenance people were trained.

Some airlines decided that they should train their Pilots on this and did. That is why you have airlines with pilots who were surprised by the news about the MCAS and pilots from other airlines who knew about it.

Boeing told the Airlines. The FAA and the European equivalent did not require any specific Pilot training on the change.

The Airlines decided if they wanted to train their pilots or not. Some did, most did not.

I hope that helps clear things up.

Have a great day,

Ah, thanks! FAA and EASA didn’t require specific training. It’s interesting why they didn’t.
 
MartijnNL
Posts: 741
Joined: Sun Jan 01, 2017 11:44 am

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 8:24 am

According to the Seattle Times article (posted about ten pages ago) 104 Boeing 737 Max aircraft are grounded at the moment: 96 in China, 6 of Ethiopian Airlines and 2 of Cayman Airlines.
Last edited by MartijnNL on Mon Mar 11, 2019 8:25 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
User avatar
SomebodyInTLS
Posts: 1728
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 12:31 pm

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 8:24 am

marcelh wrote:
pintail21 wrote:
Remember the reason why MCAS has a bad rep is because Lion Air maintenance botched a repair and had no oversight and dispatched an aircraft that wasn’t flight worthy. Let at least some facts combs out before you go into hysterics people!

Boeing should have told all their customers about MCAS in the first place. Should the crash of JT610 also have happened with an 737-800? I don’t want to downplay the faults which have been made by Lion Air maintenance and standards, but sh.t happens. If a critical system doesn’t work properly and nobody knows about it, who is to blame?


AFAIK there is no evidence of a "botched repair" in the Lion Air case. Two things still need to be answered there: 1) why MCAS was designed and implemented in a way that could cause trouble under certain circumstances and 2) what was actually behind the spurious air data which kicked MCAS into action in the first place.

No one here seems to have considered that you don't need to have MCAS be a common factor between Lion Air and Ethiopian if the root cause of both is actually avionics issues producing faulty air data...
Last edited by SomebodyInTLS on Mon Mar 11, 2019 8:33 am, edited 1 time in total.
"As with most things related to aircraft design, it's all about the trade-offs and much more nuanced than A.net likes to make out."
 
User avatar
SQ789
Posts: 651
Joined: Thu Mar 16, 2017 11:51 am

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 8:31 am

There is some 737 MAX grounding was made by most airlines. These now includes all from Cayman Airways, All airlines from China, Ethiopian Airlines and recently Miat Mongolian according to Wikipedia.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethiopian ... Flight_302
If it's not Boeing, I'm not going!
 
User avatar
Finn350
Posts: 1578
Joined: Tue Jul 09, 2013 4:57 am

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 8:33 am

Here is a FlightGlobal article that is quite relevant regarding the training changes since Lion Air crash. For some reason, the software update schedule has been delayed (estimated to be available last December in 8 weeks)
https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... so-454255/
 
JoeCanuck
Posts: 4704
Joined: Mon Dec 19, 2005 3:30 am

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 8:34 am

Correct me if I'm wrong, from what I recall of the flightradar24 plot, the aircraft didn't get much higher than 1000 -1500' agl. Would they have retracted the flaps that low?
What the...?
 
User avatar
Finn350
Posts: 1578
Joined: Tue Jul 09, 2013 4:57 am

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 8:38 am

JoeCanuck wrote:
Correct me if I'm wrong, from what I recall of the flightradar24 plot, the aircraft didn't get much higher than 1000 -1500' agl. Would they have retracted the flaps that low?


FR24 has only first 3 minutes of the flight recorded, the rest of the flight was out of their coverage.

The pilots reported they had unreliable airspeed straight after the take-off, which might have resulted in the pilots retracting the flaps and MCAS to kick-in, with possibly faulty AoA data.
 
Brozzy
Posts: 1
Joined: Sun Mar 10, 2019 7:11 pm

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 8:40 am

Wow, condolences to the families of everyone involved.

I was on this exact plane in december, ET 323 ADD - MOI.
I remember being a bit puzzled by the landing in MOI. The MAX8 seemed to have a much higher landing speed than the 737-8 i am used to.
Landed pretty late on the runway and the smell of brakes was strong when we left the plane.
Other than that my first MAX8 experience was entirely normal. Felt like a 737-8.

Sucks that a new plane type has these problems. I hope the authorities takes it seriously and goes over the MAX with a fine tooth comb after this. Hopefully this is the last accident with the type.
 
ELBOB
Posts: 295
Joined: Sun Jun 21, 2015 6:56 am

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 8:43 am

benjjk wrote:
Sorry but the FR24 data is not anywhere near accurate enough for that kind of analysis. They show a runway overrun for nearly every takeoff at my local airport. And no 737 can get airborne at 95kts of groundspeed, especially at that density altitude.


Do you have any idea of how ADS-B operates?

The 'overruns' at your local airport are probably Mode-S aircraft that FR24 is trying to triangulate because they don't emit position data.

For an aircraft with full ADS-B Out like the 737 Max, FR24 doesn't derive any data. What it logs is what is transmitted from the aircraft.
 
JoeCanuck
Posts: 4704
Joined: Mon Dec 19, 2005 3:30 am

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 8:47 am

Finn350 wrote:
JoeCanuck wrote:
Correct me if I'm wrong, from what I recall of the flightradar24 plot, the aircraft didn't get much higher than 1000 -1500' agl. Would they have retracted the flaps that low?


FR24 has only first 3 minutes of the flight recorded, the rest of the flight was out of their coverage.

The pilots reported they had unreliable airspeed straight after the take-off, which might have resulted in the pilots retracting the flaps and MCAS to kick-in, with possibly faulty AoA data.


It seems odd to me that the pilots would retract flaps as a reaction to unreliable speed readings...especially so soon after takeoff. What is the standard or average flaps retraction altitude above ground level, on a typical flight?
What the...?
 
meesh42
Posts: 25
Joined: Sat Feb 02, 2019 5:05 pm

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 8:51 am

JQ321 wrote:
Hopefully not related at all to the JT610 Crash . However, all 737MAX Aircraft should be grounded till the cause is determined as seen in these two crashes there may be a design flaw. My condolences to all affected.



100% agree, until the problem is found, ground all of them, its too small a gap in time to carry on flying them, as well as how popular the plane is at the moment

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