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flyingbird
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 2:29 pm

GalaxyFlyer wrote:
AirFiero wrote:
Wait,, folks, isn’t the flightradar data showing altitude AGL? If so, it reached an altitude of 8,XXX *above ground level*.


No, it’s AMSL, as in Above. Mean. Sea. Level. And stop using FR24 data which is not FDR data—not designed to be used as people here want to use it. The NTSB doesn’t use it.

GF

It's not FR24 data. It's data from the transponder of the crashed aircraft. FR24 just made it public. It's not designed for air crash investigation, but it indicates same basic flight data before FDR data is available. And yes FR24 has provided data to BEA (French air crash investigators) several times.
Last edited by flyingbird on Mon Mar 11, 2019 2:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
blockski
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 2:30 pm

trnswrld wrote:
I always wonder how and why witnesses are so unreliable. I know not everyone knows about aircraft, but how hard is it to fully understand and comprehend what you’re seeing? Just weird how so many people claim to see fire and smoke when they really didn’t. I know I know it would be a very intense situation to see an aircraft crash in front of you, but still.
Now I will say IF this witness is right and there was smoke, then that changes things a lot here.


There are lots of reasons why humans are unreliable witnesses, and lot of science to back up why that is. Here's a good summary (focused on criminal trials), but the same things would be true of an airplane crash: https://arstechnica.com/science/2017/07 ... ten-wrong/

While human vision is good, there are plenty of conditions—low lighting, distance, and sudden actions—that make it difficult to accurately perceive what's going on. And we don't always focus on the things that would make us a good eyewitness; if someone's waving a gun around, we tend to look at the gun, not their face. And even if they're not waving a gun, we may believe that they were if the visual information we recall is ambiguous, but we know there was a robbery happening.

Faced with partial information, research indicates that our brain's response isn't to commit what information we do have to memory. Instead, our brains attempt to create a coherent picture that makes sense. This often involves filling in details using past experience as a guide. The resulting memory may be satisfyingly complete, but it can come at the cost of incorrect information.


So, you get a situation like this, where someone sees a plane crash. They know that's not supposed to happen, and their memory can 'fill in' details about smoke or something else based on their own incomplete memories.

The part about the gun is also relevant. When someone is startled like this, they tend to focus on a specific thing and will often miss lots of other details. There's the classic gorilla suit and the basketball team experiment, too - people focus on one thing and can completely miss other very obvious things: http://www.theinvisiblegorilla.com/gori ... iment.html
 
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keesje
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 2:32 pm

kruiseri wrote:
william wrote:
flyingturtle wrote:

The Habsheim air show crash. And the Hudson miracle. In both cases, the airplane fought the pilots and didn't allow them to stall the aircraft.


David


How so in the USAirways case?


In that case, didn't Sullivan state that since he knew that the plane would not stall it helped him a lot as he could pull the stick all the way, ie make the plane fly at the lowest possible safe speed to the impact.

So yes, the A320 FBW saved 150+ lives.


The FBW system many times per second recalculates the aircraft flight envelope for e.g. aircraft position, height, wind, temperature, engine spool up time under the conditions, airspeed and safe recovery, if a swam enters an engine. That envelope is changing all the time and no pilot can monitor and control everything continuously.

Sometimes they try on non- FBW aircraft (Elmendorf C-17, Toronto Nimrod) but you can't. https://youtu.be/8EUr-5fOLvE

After the Germanwings suicide crash, discussions came up again, if the aircraft should allow the pilot to crash aircraft. Or intervene at the calculated latest possible moment, like your car.. It will come up again.
Last edited by keesje on Mon Mar 11, 2019 2:39 pm, edited 2 times in total.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
RJWNL
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 2:33 pm

flyingbird wrote:
benjjk wrote:
Sorry but the FR24 data is not anywhere near accurate enough for that kind of analysis. They show a runway overrun for nearly every takeoff at my local airport. And no 737 can get airborne at 95kts of groundspeed, especially at that density altitude.


Why are people questioning the ADS-B data?
It's not data that FR24 is guessing or making up.
It's data transmitted by the transponder.
Instead of complaining about the data source, try to understand it!

At 93 knots, the ground flag changed to airborne. The trigger for this is the front gear. So it indicated that the front wheels went off from ground at that point.
Why? We don't know. Maybe it doesn't make sense, but once again, it's not FR24 guessing, it's what the transponder was transmitting. There must be a reason why the transponder transmitted this data!


Lets assume the FR24 data you are using is 100% raw ADS-B data (which is often not the case since they will extrapolate if they are missing data frames). Even then the ADS-B data could be slightly off. How often are the different variables updated by the computers sending the data packets? Could be 93 knots is older data since the updated information didn't make that packet?
 
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HeyTK
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 2:34 pm

Aeronews: THIS INFO (via www.pprune.org) is in line with what Ethiopian Airlines’ CEO stated in the press conference held on Sunday: the pilots of flight #ET302 reported technical difficulties after take-off and asked the ATC to return. The permission was given, but they never made it back...


Image
Last edited by HeyTK on Mon Mar 11, 2019 2:34 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
Planetalk
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 2:34 pm

THS214 wrote:
Starlionblue wrote:
trnswrld wrote:

Ok understood, but I guess what is throwing me off is what is stopping the pilots from literally just flying the aircraft? they have all the visual references in the world....its day light, its clear. Will the aircraft not respond to control column inputs?


In general, yes. The first rule is to fly the aircraft.

However, there are exceptions. In a FBW Airbus, if you're in Normal Law pulling back further will lead to a stall, the aircraft will not pitch up further. Note that this is not a bad thing...

MartijnNL wrote:
Not true. Fake news. Debunked up thread.


Wait. It has been debunked that air travel is safer than driving?


Air travel is safer than driving. But when you limit driving only to the airport things change.


Indeed. This must be one of the most common examples of misuse of statistics on earth. Of course it is in airlines' interest to have the statistics abused in this way.

Note how air safety statistics are always quoted per km. Obviously air travel will look extroidanarily safe that way. However on a per journey basis things become much murkier. Because air journeys are obviously a tiny tiny fraction of car journeys. If you're on a short car journey, comparative safety is likely to be statistically insignificant, the car may even be safer. If you use a train, then it's definitely safer than the plane.

I feel quite sure I am safer on my drive to the airport than on some airlines in the world.

Back to the thread, truly tragic and my thoughts with those who lost their lives and their families. I've flown the airline and Ethiopia is a wonderful country. Shouldn't need to say that but there's some ignorant nonsense on this thread.

Decisions will hopefully be taken on the basis of safety. Not protecting a brand. Rather sad to see some on this thread more bothered about a corporation than actual human lives. It seems some regulators out there, but who I expect are more clued up on this than most contributers here, and are taking a different route view of whether grounding is justified. A worldwide grounding may well be forced, once the public see other countries grounding it and refusing to fly it will be very hard for any airline to insist there is no problem.
 
imthedreamliner
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 2:35 pm

Let's say Lion Air crash was caused by bad data fed to MCAS. Immediately after the crash everyone ( airlines, pilots, aviation enthusiasts ) knew about the MCAS system. Every MAX operator should have immediately informed/trained their pilots what to do in case of such a failure. There is enough time ( a few months ? ) between 2 crash. I am sure the pilot of the Ethiopian flight was aware of the MCAS and how to over ride it in case of a bad AOA sensor reading. How is it possible that the same accident can happen in the same way ? I just do not get it. 6 minutes of time is enough to disengage MCAS ( or turn it off ) and start flying the plane because this crew was 99% informed about the Lion air crash, what caused it and what to do under similar circumstances.

I have a feeling that this crash had a different cause. Hope we find out quickly.
 
maninch
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 2:36 pm

Richard28 wrote:
Richard28 wrote:
reports are coming in that one of the Black Boxes has now been recovered - don't know which one.



https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-47521744


According to that report both boxes have been found : "The devices recovered at the crash site were the Boeing 737 Max 8's cockpit voice recorder and digital flight data recorder."
 
Curiousflyer
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 2:37 pm

I hope the black boxes will help understand the problem. If I am not mistaken, the CVR transcript for Lion Air has still not been released or even commented upon by the investigators, has it not been a while now?
 
flyingbird
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 2:39 pm

RJWNL wrote:
flyingbird wrote:
benjjk wrote:
Sorry but the FR24 data is not anywhere near accurate enough for that kind of analysis. They show a runway overrun for nearly every takeoff at my local airport. And no 737 can get airborne at 95kts of groundspeed, especially at that density altitude.


Why are people questioning the ADS-B data?
It's not data that FR24 is guessing or making up.
It's data transmitted by the transponder.
Instead of complaining about the data source, try to understand it!

At 93 knots, the ground flag changed to airborne. The trigger for this is the front gear. So it indicated that the front wheels went off from ground at that point.
Why? We don't know. Maybe it doesn't make sense, but once again, it's not FR24 guessing, it's what the transponder was transmitting. There must be a reason why the transponder transmitted this data!


Lets assume the FR24 data you are using is 100% raw ADS-B data (which is often not the case since they will extrapolate if they are missing data frames). Even then the ADS-B data could be slightly off. How often are the different variables updated by the computers sending the data packets? Could be 93 knots is older data since the updated information didn't make that packet?


The data on FR24 web page can be extrapolated. The data published on twitter and in the blog post are just raw ADS-B frames from the transponder. There is no reason why the data should be off. It's a modern aircraft with modern electronics. Data comes from the FMS computer in cockpit and is transmitted in real time.
 
ytz
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 2:41 pm

VSMUT wrote:
ZeeZoo wrote:
And if it really turns out to be a design flaw, then it could have a major impact on Boeing's next airplane. Much has been said about the 797 becoming a 757 and 767 sized plane, but if the 737MAX runs into major problems, they will have no options but to switch focus to a 737 replacement ASAP.


Would you trust an airplane from an OEM designed in haste, as a response, to a flaw that killed the cash cow product line for them?

They had better be extremely transparent and forthcoming on this MAX investigation or they are going to have major issues selling their next line of new airplanes.
 
prinxe1
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 2:42 pm

Finn350 wrote:
LN-KGL wrote:
Can these problems with the 737Max danger Boeing's future?


No, as even if the 2nd crash is MCAS related, the issue can most likely be mitigated with a software fix. Everybody knows that basic 737 design is 50 years old, and age shows when new features are implemented..

A Software fix doesn't always fix everything
 
prinxe1
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 2:42 pm

Finn350 wrote:
LN-KGL wrote:
Can these problems with the 737Max danger Boeing's future?


No, as even if the 2nd crash is MCAS related, the issue can most likely be mitigated with a software fix. Everybody knows that basic 737 design is 50 years old, and age shows when new features are implemented..

A Software fix doesn't always fix everything
 
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zkojq
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 2:43 pm

lowbank wrote:
For all those people talking of engine failure. Three examples of double engine loss spring to mind.

A330 which ran out of fuel at 33,000 feet and glided to land in the Azores. Few elements of luck meant they were close enough.
777 fuel lines iced up on approach to Heathrow, landed short of the runway.
Miracle of the Hudson,

Even with no engines all these planes could be controlled by the pilots.

I don’t get the feeling from initial reports it’s an engine issue.

:checkmark: Whilst a double flameout/failure is incredibly unlikely, even if it does happen, the flight crew will be able to take control and make a forced landing somewhere. Looking at the photos of the wreckage, the crash site seems to be reasonably flat, so I would expect that the flight crew would have been able to pull of a reasonably successful forced landing. I'm sure that there would be fatalities, but we would be talking about something comparable to the TK737 that crashed in AMS a few years ago, not a catastrophic accident where noone survives and the aircraft is destroyed beyond recognition.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turkish_A ... light_1951

sandyb123 wrote:
If (and it is an if at this stage) EASA decides to ground the Boeing 737 MAX aircraft then this will be a tough gig for Norwegian. I have noted a number of public concerns posted to Norwegian over the weekend about the MAX aircraft. They only have 8 in service, but given their already tough trading it could hit their operations and financials hard if they have to ground 15% of their short haul fleet.


Don't they still have one stuck on the ground in Iran awaiting parts after an engine failure?
First to fly the 787-9
 
Trin
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 2:44 pm

SheikhDjibouti wrote:
CLTRampRat wrote:
Hello everyone,
I do not have time to dig through the thread at this time, would anyone be willing to post the last recorded FPM descent rate?
Thank you.

The FDR data is not available yet
The FR24 data ceased several minutes before the crash.

Some people have looked at the crash site and concluded the aircraft must have been higher than believed, after which it came down nearly vertical, and fast (e.g. 400 kts)

It seems as if only one person here believes the crater (positioned on a gently sloping hillside) could equally be due to a much shallower impact (say 30°) but at high speed (e.g 400 kts). Anything shallower than 25° could have resulted in a degree of bounce, or at the very least an elongated debris field.


Yep. What also has to be brought into consideration for this crash (unlike the Lion Air crash) is the type of substrate the aircraft crashed into. In places in Africa (and I believe in Ethiopia), there is a soil type called fesh-fesh, which is basically fine dust lying feet-thick on the ground that is impossible to move through and would displace quite readily during a plane impact. I'm not saying that is what happened to create the horrific crater we see in the pictures, but just to exemplify the fact that there are many different soil types and that would also have a bearing on crater size/displacement of substrate/debris field.
 
Etheereal
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 2:45 pm

qf789 wrote:

Great, i cant wait till we get preliminary info.
 
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zkojq
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 2:47 pm

Erebus wrote:
People have debated here that the JT610 aircraft was not flight-worthy and should not have taken off if there was a persistent sensor issue that remained improperly resolved. But still, there's always a first time for everything and unfortunately, it appears that ET302 didn't make it to the ground for maintenance to have a look.

:checkmark: People saying that JT610 shouldn't have been dispatched are missing the point completely. The fact is that sensors break - that's an operational reality. If you go to avherald.com and search unreliable airspeed, you get links to quite a few incidents over the past few months:

http://avherald.com/h?article=4bf90724/0000&opt=0

http://avherald.com/h?article=4c42862a&opt=0

http://avherald.com/h?article=4c120172&opt=0

http://avherald.com/h?article=4c116cf5&opt=0

http://avherald.com/h?article=4be73246&opt=0

http://avherald.com/h?article=4bb4f5b3&opt=0

http://avherald.com/h?article=4bd98557&opt=0

The point is that, regardless of whether the airspeed system began malfunctioning on a previous flight or between leaving the gate and takeoff, once failed the crew will now be dealing with two issues 1) unreliable airspeed and 2)MCAS trimming against them. Potentially serious consequences await.

MD80Ttail wrote:
Shakes head. No one with this low of time should be flying pax in scheduled service or flying any type of mainline aircraft. I know that’s how it’s done everywhere but the USA.....there is a reason we have the safest air travel system in the world.


Easyjet has been putting people with ~250hours in the right seat of their aircraft for nearly 20 years. The airline has a perfect safety record. The airline also has a training department that is used to training up newcomers who have very low total time.
First to fly the 787-9
 
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keesje
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 2:48 pm

On LionAir, the opportunistic way the focus was gently moved to the LionAir maintenance track record right after the crash made me feel sick.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jeremybogaisky/2018/11/28/lion-air-crash-report-raises-questions-about-maintenance-and-pilots-actions/

When MCAS showed up, no-one ever apologized / looked back. The questionable Lion Air maintenance track record was / is too convenient to distract & confuse. Then drag it out (further research) & they loose interest. Stock price is about perceptions, not realities.
Last edited by keesje on Mon Mar 11, 2019 2:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
ytz
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 2:50 pm

RB211trent wrote:
Seems to me people are more concerned about damaging Boeing and the 737.


Indeed. The level of ignorance and veiled racism in this thread is astonishing.

I'm in the air force in my country. I've been involved in flight safety and crash investigations. I know that if we had two crashes with such similar profiles, there would absolutely be severe operational restrictions while the investigation is going on. That'd be the minimum. If not, flat out grounding. It's remarkable to me sometimes, how much less precautionary civilian regulators and OEMs are.
 
Etheereal
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 2:55 pm

Starlionblue wrote:
trnswrld wrote:
Starlionblue wrote:

That's not even remotely how it works. In all modern airliners, mode awareness is key. Know what the aircraft is doing, and what it means.


Ok understood, but I guess what is throwing me off is what is stopping the pilots from literally just flying the aircraft? they have all the visual references in the world....its day light, its clear. Will the aircraft not respond to control column inputs?


In general, yes. The first rule is to fly the aircraft.

However, there are exceptions. In a FBW Airbus, if you're in Normal Law pulling back further will lead to a stall, the aircraft will not pitch up further. Note that this is not a bad thing...

MartijnNL wrote:
Starlionblue wrote:
Frankly, you could fly any aircraft on the least safe airline operating within the dodgiest regulatory regime in the world and you'd still be safer than on the drive to the airport.

Not true. Fake news. Debunked up thread.


You're saying that flying for some reputedly dodgy airline is less safe than driving a car?

I think you mean Alternate law, you cannot stall like that in Normal mode.
 
estorilm
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 2:55 pm

flyingturtle wrote:
estorilm wrote:
This is absurd - it is widely known that one of Sullenberger's primary reasons for starting the APU was specifically to retain full flight protections including alpha floor. It didn't fight him - he knew the system would prevent a stall.

You're totally wrong about the air show crash by the way; the pilots specifically stated that part of the routine was to "disable alpha floor". They flew the pass 3x lower than they were supposed to as well. Seems obvious.


1. You seem to have a different understanding of "fight the pilot". I want a safety system to fight me when I'm about to do something unsafe, whether it is intentional or unintentional.

2. Do you have a source for your statement that they disabled alpha prot?


David

In training, pilots are demonstrated the bank angle protections, alpha floor protections, etc. The instructing pilot literally tells the PF to input FULL sidestick deflection, this is done for roll and pitch (there are videos of it on youtube).

It sounds unnatural, but it's just part of training. Pulling full aft will give you maximum lift at minimum speed without a risk of stalling the plane. You could perform the maneuver manually, but it'll never be as good as the computer - and if you screw up, the ramifications are obviously severe.

Besides, Airbus did this not because they're "better" than the pilot, but because any further deflection and the plane will fall out of the sky anyways. Kinda a win-win really - why would you ever need to go past that threshold and intentionally stall? I don't see any negatives. On the positive side of things, in a stressful environment like the Hudson ditching, I don't have to look at airspeed or anything else - I can pull full aft and keep the plane centered while looking outside and KNOW that I won't stall.

Disabled alpha prot:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_France_Flight_296
"...as they approached the airfield, they would extend third-stage flap, lower the landing gear, and line up for level flight at 100 feet (30 m). The captain would slow the aircraft to its minimum flying speed with maximum angle of attack, disable the "alpha floor" (the function that would otherwise automatically increase engine thrust when the angle of attack reached 15°) and rely on the first officer to adjust the engine thrust manually to maintain 100 feet."
 
ytz
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 3:00 pm

Amsterdam wrote:
Listen gentlemen

Its really easy

If you are Boeing and one of the big guys in the top of Boeing, then for sure you have the grounding option on the table.

Whoever is saying grouding the fleet is crazy or whatever show that they should never be in a high position in Boeing.

Of course, Boeing is now in a state of doubt. They wont ground the max fleet immediately. But thinking Boeing will not talk about this within the top management is nonsense.


If I were Boeing's CEO I'd ask for outright grounding of some very severe ops restrictions.

If another MAX thunders in during the next few months, the fate of Boeing's Commercial Airplane business will be in doubt. This isn't the 1960s where the public tolerates crashes with some regularity.
 
brunoguemes
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 3:00 pm

smittythepirate wrote:
mcogator wrote:
Wow, Boeing Corp stock is down over 11% in premarket open.


Not sure if this is actually a surprise to anybody


An order of 16 MAX's is being reviewd. And this is just the first news I found as I woke up. :(

https://www.nst.com.my/news/nation/2019 ... ng-737-max
 
estorilm
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 3:03 pm

brunoguemes wrote:
smittythepirate wrote:
mcogator wrote:
Wow, Boeing Corp stock is down over 11% in premarket open.


Not sure if this is actually a surprise to anybody


An order of 16 MAX's is being reviewd. And this is just the first news I found as I woke up. :(

https://www.nst.com.my/news/nation/2019 ... ng-737-max

Unfortunately - passenger perception plays a huge role in all of this for a given airline as well.
 
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ExperimentalFTE
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 3:04 pm

imthedreamliner wrote:
Let's say Lion Air crash was caused by bad data fed to MCAS. Immediately after the crash everyone ( airlines, pilots, aviation enthusiasts ) knew about the MCAS system. Every MAX operator should have immediately informed/trained their pilots what to do in case of such a failure. There is enough time ( a few months ? ) between 2 crash. I am sure the pilot of the Ethiopian flight was aware of the MCAS and how to over ride it in case of a bad AOA sensor reading. How is it possible that the same accident can happen in the same way ? I just do not get it. 6 minutes of time is enough to disengage MCAS ( or turn it off ) and start flying the plane because this crew was 99% informed about the Lion air crash, what caused it and what to do under similar circumstances.

I have a feeling that this crash had a different cause. Hope we find out quickly.


I completely disagree! If erroneous data is detected and announced to the crew, how come critical flight control component continues using that erroneous data and how come we now depend on the crew to disengage critical flight control component before it drives the aircraft into ground by using that data, hmmmm.

Very strange philosophy for airplane certified in 21st century!
 
N212R
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 3:07 pm

prinxe1 wrote:
A Software fix doesn't always fix everything


What tangled webs they design when first they flatter to refine.
 
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smittythepirate
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 3:15 pm

brunoguemes wrote:
smittythepirate wrote:
mcogator wrote:
Wow, Boeing Corp stock is down over 11% in premarket open.


Not sure if this is actually a surprise to anybody


An order of 16 MAX's is being reviewd. And this is just the first news I found as I woke up. :(

https://www.nst.com.my/news/nation/2019 ... ng-737-max


This whole article feels like click and bait. For starters it was a MoU for 8 787s and 8 737 Max. Second, they aren't even scheduled to get the Max until next year and the article mentions no decision would be made immediately.

Either way this is off topic and should not be discussed in the crash thread.
www.jbweather.com
 
trnswrld
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 3:20 pm

smokeybandit wrote:
trnswrld wrote:
I always wonder how and why witnesses are so unreliable. I know not everyone knows about aircraft, but how hard is it to fully understand and comprehend what you’re seeing? Just weird how so many people claim to see fire and smoke when they really didn’t. I know I know it would be a very intense situation to see an aircraft crash in front of you, but still.
Now I will say IF this witness is right and there was smoke, then that changes things a lot here.


Eye witnesses are actually quite unreliable.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions ... 7794f57f0f


That’s what I said.
 
AirBoat
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 3:24 pm

Is it possible to load a 737 max to aft of aft cg limits?
It should not be possible. I was on a 737 800 with a delay due to luggage being offloaded and the LCG being recalculated. is this correct?
If you are loaded tail heavy, the aircraft could fly ok with flaps out when the Longitudinal centre of lift is further back, but when the flaps come in, the aircraft would be uncontrollable, with not enough down elevator authority.
This is very unlikely but should be crossed off the list. Do these aircraft have load cells in the oleos to warn against out of CG loading?
regards
FXL
 
pjc747
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 3:24 pm

ExperimentalFTE wrote:
imthedreamliner wrote:
Let's say Lion Air crash was caused by bad data fed to MCAS. Immediately after the crash everyone ( airlines, pilots, aviation enthusiasts ) knew about the MCAS system. Every MAX operator should have immediately informed/trained their pilots what to do in case of such a failure. There is enough time ( a few months ? ) between 2 crash. I am sure the pilot of the Ethiopian flight was aware of the MCAS and how to over ride it in case of a bad AOA sensor reading. How is it possible that the same accident can happen in the same way ? I just do not get it. 6 minutes of time is enough to disengage MCAS ( or turn it off ) and start flying the plane because this crew was 99% informed about the Lion air crash, what caused it and what to do under similar circumstances.

I have a feeling that this crash had a different cause. Hope we find out quickly.


I completely disagree! If erroneous data is detected and announced to the crew, how come critical flight control component continues using that erroneous data and how come we now depend on the crew to disengage critical flight control component before it drives the aircraft into ground by using that data, hmmmm.

Very strange philosophy for airplane certified in 21st century!


You have to assume the problem is obvious. We don't know the cause of this crash yet, but if it proves to be the same as the Lion Air crash, then it is only the second occurrence of this problem. It may not be replicable in the Boeing test facilities.
 
RJWNL
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 3:25 pm

flyingbird wrote:

The data on FR24 web page can be extrapolated. The data published on twitter and in the blog post are just raw ADS-B frames from the transponder. There is no reason why the data should be off. It's a modern aircraft with modern electronics. Data comes from the FMS computer in cockpit and is transmitted in real time.


I very much doubt ADS-B will use instantaneous data because then it would be all over the place due to vibrations, wind etc. There will always be some averaging out to give a reliable figure indicating the general trend for the past one or several time-frames. Eventhough the aircraft is quite "modern" some of the technology and standards used will be older.
 
michi
Posts: 266
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 3:26 pm

There is still a lot of focus on the MCAS. Still, there are other questions not answered yet.

These are my questions which I have after collection all the information in the news. Of course, the information might not be reliable, incomplete (as FR24 coverage is poor in that area) and even fake. But still, there are question that should be asked. They might even help in looking somewhere else for clues.

The pilots apparently did notice something is wrong. They apparently declared emergency and told ATC that they have unreliable airspeed. This is quite good, as the most difficult part with unreliable airspeed is the detection of unreliable air data. The pilots obviously did detect it.

But what caused the unreliable airspeed?

Did they climb normal or not?
Despite the discussion wether the FR24 data is reliable, it is still not known for sure which altitude they have reached.

In case they did not climb that much, as it is being interpreted by the data available so far, what caused the degraded climb performance?
When having unreliable air data, pilots fly pitch and power. With specific pitch and power values, climb performance should be a no factor, even in ADD.

The pilots apparently reported difficulties in controlling the aircraft.
During unreliable speed scenarios controlling the aircraft is not the main task or issue, as all the controls should work normal. Something was obviously wrong. Is there a combination of events making control of the aircraft difficult and leaves you with unreliable air data and less than normal power?
Flock of birds hitting the aircraft at Radom, Engines and Pitots?

MCAS is using AOA. This sensor does not affect IAS. But the pilots apparently had unreliable airspeed, as noted above.

Since the pilots knew (at wich timespan after takeoff?) that they had unreliable airspeed, they should have followed the respective procedure. This normally includes the instruction to not move the flaps until you have stabilized the aircraft and did troubleshoot the problem.
When does the Boeing FCOM procedure for unreliable air speed ask for cleaning up the aircraft?
Also not cleaning up the aircraft prevents MCAS kicking in, as it only activates when the flaps are up (plus all the other engagement conditions).

Just by asking a few questions I think there is more to the story than MCAS kicking in. The trouble started way earlier during the flight, where you normally are not in a high AOA situation.
 
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Carlos01
Posts: 172
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 3:29 pm

Two Boeing 737-8MAXs and one Boeing 767 freighter (Atlas Air 3591) crash with very high speed nose down straight into terrain. In all three cases, the data- and voice recorders have been recovered, but so far nothing has been released which would shed any light into any of these - extremely weird - events. It can be that none of the disasters have anything to do with each other, but at the same time I have to wonder. Planes shouldn't just fall out of the sky like that, for no apparent reason, nose down full speed, explode into millions of small pieces on impact. Even if the 767 was at landing, and the other 2 on take-off. At least the 767 shouldn't have an MCAS-system, right?

Just thinking out loud by myself, could someone have found a way for new type of terrorism? Either remotely or before the flight, program the plane to nose-down at a certain point? Would that be even technically possibly, if someone had the right level of access? This is just so weird, something really doesn't seem right.
 
seat64k
Posts: 611
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 3:30 pm

trnswrld wrote:
I always wonder how and why witnesses are so unreliable. I know not everyone knows about aircraft, but how hard is it to fully understand and comprehend what you’re seeing? Just weird how so many people claim to see fire and smoke when they really didn’t. I know I know it would be a very intense situation to see an aircraft crash in front of you, but still.
Now I will say IF this witness is right and there was smoke, then that changes things a lot here.


It's not just eye-witnesses. The problem is our memories in general. Two major problems:

1) We don't remember nearly as much as we would like to think. And where there are gaps, our brains just fill in the gaps drawing on previous experience and/or expectations of the situation, or what ever we have in memory somewhere that will fit somehow. Our brains are literally making stuff up and committing it to memory. And as time passes and real memories become faded, they're vulnerable to being distorted or intruded on. And the brain will happily spin whatever narrative it needs to to make sense of it all.

2) We cant distinguish between real memories and the stuff our brains come up with.

When we see something like a plane crashing in real life, it is almost certainly the first time we've witnessed something like this. But we already have memories of a dozen plane crashes in movies, with all the usual special effects. So when we witness a real life plane crash - a much less pyrotechnic affair than what we've come to expect, the very real memory of it makes no sense at all to our brains, and it will happy fill in the "missing" data, and two hours later we remember smoke and flames were there were none.
 
Oliver2020
Posts: 192
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 3:30 pm

Seeing as to how this accident happened immediately after takeoff. What are the possibility the flaps were never set to begin with? I am aware of the takeoff configuration warning, but I also just read of a crash where the pilots completely ignored an audible configuration warning for 40 seconds during the takeoff roll. Before someone says the news reported they were airborne and reported speed problems remember the news can't identify an AC from a hole in the ground(EX if it hadn't been for the lion air accident the news would most likely be reporting the AC as an Airbus 737 / tupolev 747-400 and sadly that's probably not sarcasm) so unless it's from a legit source investigating the crash I'd be hesitant to take any news source as legit information, mind you one article I just is claiming Boeing is doomed due to these 2 crashes( click ate/ sensationalism much---sarcasm kinda)
Last edited by Oliver2020 on Mon Mar 11, 2019 3:34 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
AntonioMartin
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 3:31 pm

While its true several countries in Africa have had a checkered record in the past, many have improved their safety standard. I haven't even heard of any incidents, (praise the Lord) and hope not to, in the Congo for a while! We will have to wait and see to know what happened here, I guess, whether it was the pilots, the company, the flight area or Boeing (ie "the airplane") to blame.

That said, it does remind me of the DC-10 situation during the 70s...

Rip those in the aircraft and my condolences to their loved ones, friends and to the airline and airport staff..my thoughts are also with rescuers and area people who witnessed the loss of life and carnage.
Last edited by AntonioMartin on Mon Mar 11, 2019 3:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
kiowa
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 3:31 pm

Not to blame the accident on the crew or the 737 but what are the hiring standards in Ethiopia for a commercial pilot? Can they hire a F/O right off the street with no flying experience?
 
khobar95
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 3:32 pm

How many Max 9's and 10's are in service? If any, do they differ somehow from the Max 8's?
 
Etheereal
Posts: 374
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 3:33 pm

ytz wrote:
Amsterdam wrote:
Listen gentlemen

Its really easy

If you are Boeing and one of the big guys in the top of Boeing, then for sure you have the grounding option on the table.

Whoever is saying grouding the fleet is crazy or whatever show that they should never be in a high position in Boeing.

Of course, Boeing is now in a state of doubt. They wont ground the max fleet immediately. But thinking Boeing will not talk about this within the top management is nonsense.


If I were Boeing's CEO I'd ask for outright grounding of some very severe ops restrictions.

If another MAX thunders in during the next few months, the fate of Boeing's Commercial Airplane business will be in doubt. This isn't the 1960s where the public tolerates crashes with some regularity.

Thankfully you're not the CEO, because that call makes no sense.

Also i hope you have the funds to cover all the money loss due those "groundings" you've been begging for.
 
boerje
Posts: 49
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 3:36 pm

kiowa wrote:
Not to blame the accident on the crew or the 737 but what are the hiring standards in Ethiopia for a commercial pilot? Can they hire a F/O right off the street with no flying experience?


ET is allowed to fly to US so take a guess if FAA would ok that.
 
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CitizenJustin
Posts: 668
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 3:41 pm

ytz wrote:
ACCS300 wrote:
Although I did admire the MAX I'd be a bit hesitant to fly one until I know more about this horrific crash. As a frequent Canadian domestic flyer, it's gonna be a challenge avoiding the MAX here soon with big orders from AC and Westjet and few if any new NEOs for Canadian carriers in the future.


I really hope AC is thinking of cancelling their MAX order and getting NEOs instead. A dozen and a half dead Canadians. And on the face of it, looks like something is wrong with the aircraft. Either it's build, how training was done by Boeing, manuals, whatever....

I know I am not going to feel comfortable putting myself or a family member on a 737 Max until they absolutely have figured out what's going on. And at the rate this is going, all but guaranteed, there will be another 737 Max crash within months.


So dramatic. You’re already predicting the next crash too. Western nations haven’t had any issues with the Max, and I’d get on one today if need be. What if it turns out that this accident is pilot error, having nothing to do with the plane? I have a feeling you’d still want AC to switch to the NEO.
 
trent768
Posts: 144
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 3:41 pm

ytz wrote:
RB211trent wrote:
Seems to me people are more concerned about damaging Boeing and the 737.


Indeed. The level of ignorance and veiled racism in this thread is astonishing.

I'm in the air force in my country. I've been involved in flight safety and crash investigations. I know that if we had two crashes with such similar profiles, there would absolutely be severe operational restrictions while the investigation is going on. That'd be the minimum. If not, flat out grounding. It's remarkable to me sometimes, how much less precautionary civilian regulators and OEMs are.

Because for some of them, it happened in "a poor country where the goal of every airline is to kill their passengers". Somehow, I get the feeling that some poster implicitly stated that the 300 deaths is insignificant when compared to the financial damage airlines and Boeing will suffer. I dare them to say that in front of my parent's friend, who only have their son's arm to bury.
 
VV
Posts: 1837
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 3:46 pm

A330freak wrote:
I'm saddened to hear about this. As unlikely as it may be, I hope there are survivors.

Below is a screenshot of the flight radar data for those who haven't looked at the FR24 link upthread.
Image
(Taken from this tweet)
https://twitter.com/flightradar24/statu ... 3613764609

A few observations/notes
-When the aircraft is on the ground, FR24 shows the altitude as 0 ft. Wikipedia lists the airport height as 7625 ft, taking that into account, if the FR24 data is accurate, the aircraft didn't climb much in the first few minutes

-The FR24 data isn't complete, the last signal has a timestamp of 5:41 UTC whereas news outlets report that it crashed around 5:44 UTC. In the tweet I linked to, FR24 also acknowledges that coverage is limited in the area.

-Playing back previous flights of ET302 shows the flight generally does a right turn quite quickly after departure. As can be seen above, this does not happen on this flight.


Is the picture correct?
 
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LaunchDetected
Posts: 317
Joined: Fri Jul 13, 2012 4:42 pm

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 3:47 pm

The comments toward Ethiopian training and maintenance shows the lack of knowledge, the latent racism and surely an underlying Boeing fanboyism.

Shameful display. We saw the same kind of comments for the Lion Air crash.
Caravelle lover
 
AeroplaneFreak
Posts: 295
Joined: Mon Sep 18, 2006 6:19 pm

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 3:53 pm

ytz wrote:
ACCS300 wrote:
I know I am not going to feel comfortable putting myself or a family member on a 737 Max until they absolutely have figured out what's going on. And at the rate this is going, all but guaranteed, there will be another 737 Max crash within months.


WOW! "All but guaranteed" and what is your evidence for this?
 
JFKIceman
Posts: 38
Joined: Sun Mar 18, 2018 9:00 pm

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 3:55 pm

kiowa wrote:
Not to blame the accident on the crew or the 737 but what are the hiring standards in Ethiopia for a commercial pilot? Can they hire a F/O right off the street with no flying experience?



They do have their own flight academy
 
AirFiero
Posts: 1548
Joined: Wed Aug 28, 2013 11:43 pm

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 3:59 pm

In fairness to the people in this thread saying all MAX’s should be grounded, now three countries including China seem to agree...

China Grounds 737 MAX 8 (Update)
https://www.avweb.com/eletter/archives/ ... ail#232395
 
9w748capt
Posts: 1756
Joined: Sat Feb 02, 2008 10:27 am

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 3:59 pm

Is that for real? The FO had 200 hours, period? Surely they mean 200 hours on the 737 (max or not). Surely you can't become a commercial pilot anywhere in the world with just 200 flying hours? ET is an excellent airline and I'd expect them to have the same standards as anyone else. They have many foreign pilots as well which will make some of you happy. Seems like the captain of this flight was an Ethiopian national though, which I'm sure will lead many of you to just jump to conclusions about that.
 
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trinidadeG
Posts: 220
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2009 7:43 am

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 4:03 pm

DGCA rules out grounding of Boeing 737 Max 8 planes in India
After reviewing the matter regarding safety issues post accident of Boeing 737 Max 8 Ethiopian Airline, the Director General of Civil Aviation today, ruled out grounding of Boeing 737 Max 8 planes in India. Currently, SpiceJet has 12 and Jet AirwaysNSE 1.71 % has 5 Boeing 737 Max 8 planes.

However, the aviation watchdog has ordered additional compliance actions for all Boeing 737 Max 8 planes. As an additional safety measure, the DGCA also said that only pilots with 1,000 hours of experience can fly Boeing 737 Max aircraft used by Indian airlines. The new norms will come into effect from March 12.

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/in ... 362666.cms
 
SmokinL1011
Posts: 138
Joined: Mon Jun 19, 2006 1:43 am

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 4:07 pm

Whether grounding the Max 8 fleet is justified or reasonable at this point or not, certainly there can be simulator training for MAX 8 pilots to go through the same conditions as the Lion Air flight the day before the crash, the crashed Lion Air flight and now the Ethiopian crash?
Last edited by SmokinL1011 on Mon Mar 11, 2019 4:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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