Flightsimboy
Posts: 1772
Joined: Sun Sep 11, 2005 12:49 pm

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 4:14 pm

trinidadeG wrote:
DGCA rules out grounding of Boeing 737 Max 8 planes in India
After reviewing the matter regarding safety issues post accident of Boeing 737 Max 8 Ethiopian Airline, the Director General of Civil Aviation today, ruled out grounding of Boeing 737 Max 8 planes in India. Currently, SpiceJet has 12 and Jet AirwaysNSE 1.71 % has 5 Boeing 737 Max 8 planes.

However, the aviation watchdog has ordered additional compliance actions for all Boeing 737 Max 8 planes. As an additional safety measure, the DGCA also said that only pilots with 1,000 hours of experience can fly Boeing 737 Max aircraft used by Indian airlines. The new norms will come into effect from March 12.

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/in ... 362666.cms


The numbers increase. Glad to see this preventive action being taken up front. It was such a crime here on a.net to even mention a grounding. Again like the comment "It's just the CAAC" the next comment would be "it's just the DGCA". Sigh!
LAX772LR - "Answer to goofy question:" in response to my question about the B737-MAX8 being grounded. 48 hours later all B737-MAX8 grounded worldwide. Go figure!!
 
RogerMurdock
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 4:14 pm

SmokinL1011 wrote:
Whether grounding the Max 8 fleet is justified or reasonable at this point or not, certainly there can be simulator training for MAX 8 pilots to go through the same conditions as the Lion Air flight the day before the crash, the crashed Lion Air flight and now the Ethiopian crash?


Lion air, maybe, if MCAS logic is in the sim (note that there aren’t very many MAX sims in existence right now). Ethiopian, we don’t know enough yet about what actually happened to model it.
 
estorilm
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 4:14 pm

SmokinL1011 wrote:
Whether grounding the Max 8 fleet is justified or reasonable at this point or not, certainly there can be simulator training for MAX 8 pilots to go through the same conditions as the Lion Air flight the day before the crash, the crashed Lion Air flight and now the Ethiopian crash?

Apparently there are VERY few MAX simulators available, ironically due to the apparent commonality of the platform with the NG and that not much has changed.
 
smokeybandit
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 4:19 pm

 
Etheereal
Posts: 343
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 4:22 pm

Flightsimboy wrote:
trinidadeG wrote:
DGCA rules out grounding of Boeing 737 Max 8 planes in India
After reviewing the matter regarding safety issues post accident of Boeing 737 Max 8 Ethiopian Airline, the Director General of Civil Aviation today, ruled out grounding of Boeing 737 Max 8 planes in India. Currently, SpiceJet has 12 and Jet AirwaysNSE 1.71 % has 5 Boeing 737 Max 8 planes.

However, the aviation watchdog has ordered additional compliance actions for all Boeing 737 Max 8 planes. As an additional safety measure, the DGCA also said that only pilots with 1,000 hours of experience can fly Boeing 737 Max aircraft used by Indian airlines. The new norms will come into effect from March 12.

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/in ... 362666.cms


The numbers increase. Glad to see this preventive action being taken up front. It was such a crime here on a.net to even mention a grounding. Again like the comment "It's just the CAAC" the next comment would be "it's just the DGCA". Sigh!

I think u read his post wrong, what he said is that the news pointed out that India will not ground the 3M8, but will keep its eyes on the plane.
JetBuddy wrote:
"737 slides off the runway" is the new "Florida man"..

:lol:
 
Flightsimboy
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 4:25 pm

Etheereal wrote:
Flightsimboy wrote:
trinidadeG wrote:
DGCA rules out grounding of Boeing 737 Max 8 planes in India
After reviewing the matter regarding safety issues post accident of Boeing 737 Max 8 Ethiopian Airline, the Director General of Civil Aviation today, ruled out grounding of Boeing 737 Max 8 planes in India. Currently, SpiceJet has 12 and Jet AirwaysNSE 1.71 % has 5 Boeing 737 Max 8 planes.

However, the aviation watchdog has ordered additional compliance actions for all Boeing 737 Max 8 planes. As an additional safety measure, the DGCA also said that only pilots with 1,000 hours of experience can fly Boeing 737 Max aircraft used by Indian airlines. The new norms will come into effect from March 12.

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/in ... 362666.cms


The numbers increase. Glad to see this preventive action being taken up front. It was such a crime here on a.net to even mention a grounding. Again like the comment "It's just the CAAC" the next comment would be "it's just the DGCA". Sigh!

I think u read his post wrong, what he said is that the news pointed out that India will not ground the 3M8, but will keep its eyes on the plane.


I stand corrected. However the max 1000 hours experience is a step in the right direction.
LAX772LR - "Answer to goofy question:" in response to my question about the B737-MAX8 being grounded. 48 hours later all B737-MAX8 grounded worldwide. Go figure!!
 
AirFiero
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 4:25 pm

RogerMurdock wrote:
SmokinL1011 wrote:
Whether grounding the Max 8 fleet is justified or reasonable at this point or not, certainly there can be simulator training for MAX 8 pilots to go through the same conditions as the Lion Air flight the day before the crash, the crashed Lion Air flight and now the Ethiopian crash?


Lion air, maybe, if MCAS logic is in the sim (note that there aren’t very many MAX sims in existence right now). Ethiopian, we don’t know enough yet about what actually happened to model it.


As I understand it, the MCAS system is something automatic and with no pilot control? If I have that wrong, please provide the correct information.
 
GRJGeorge
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 4:26 pm

According to AvHerald.com a total of 9 incidents were reported involving the Max in the last 3 months alone...also reasonably high amount for such a low in service type...
Majority had to do with indications received in the flightdeck of something wrong...no clarity though on the site if the indications were correct...various stages of flight though.
Airlines involved: Air Canada x 4, American, Norwegian, Aerolinas Argentina, TUI and SpiceJet
 
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trinidadeG
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 4:26 pm

Flightsimboy wrote:
trinidadeG wrote:
DGCA rules out grounding of Boeing 737 Max 8 planes in India
After reviewing the matter regarding safety issues post accident of Boeing 737 Max 8 Ethiopian Airline, the Director General of Civil Aviation today, ruled out grounding of Boeing 737 Max 8 planes in India. Currently, SpiceJet has 12 and Jet AirwaysNSE 1.71 % has 5 Boeing 737 Max 8 planes.

However, the aviation watchdog has ordered additional compliance actions for all Boeing 737 Max 8 planes. As an additional safety measure, the DGCA also said that only pilots with 1,000 hours of experience can fly Boeing 737 Max aircraft used by Indian airlines. The new norms will come into effect from March 12.

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/in ... 362666.cms


The numbers increase. Glad to see this preventive action being taken up front. It was such a crime here on a.net to even mention a grounding. Again like the comment "It's just the CAAC" the next comment would be "it's just the DGCA". Sigh!


Increase??
Please read my post again. India will NOT be grounding its MAXs.. I think regulators have been sharing information with each other since the crash.. Stuff that isn't available to the general public (and the good folk on these threads) yet, perhaps.
Last edited by trinidadeG on Mon Mar 11, 2019 4:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
YouGeeElWhy
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 4:28 pm

smokeybandit wrote:
WN might, but the public is going to turn on them soon. The hysteria has already started with the general population on twitter and facebook. We live in an age where groups think the world is flat and vaccines are harmful, what chance does the Max8 have.
 
Etheereal
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 4:29 pm

YouGeeElWhy wrote:
smokeybandit wrote:
WN might, but the public is going to turn on them soon. The hysteria has already started with the general population on twitter and facebook. We live in an age where groups think the world is flat and vaccines are harmful, what chance does the Max8 have.

What hysteria? You think social networks really matter that much ? At the end of the day, people WILL need to reach their destination, and AA specially will have the 3M8 available for them, just as SW has theirs, and Copa has the M9.
JetBuddy wrote:
"737 slides off the runway" is the new "Florida man"..

:lol:
 
smokeybandit
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 4:31 pm

Right, you'll have people saying "I'm not flying them!" about the same time they board their flight.
 
F9Animal
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 4:33 pm

Etheereal wrote:
ytz wrote:
Amsterdam wrote:
Listen gentlemen

Its really easy

If you are Boeing and one of the big guys in the top of Boeing, then for sure you have the grounding option on the table.

Whoever is saying grouding the fleet is crazy or whatever show that they should never be in a high position in Boeing.

Of course, Boeing is now in a state of doubt. They wont ground the max fleet immediately. But thinking Boeing will not talk about this within the top management is nonsense.


If I were Boeing's CEO I'd ask for outright grounding of some very severe ops restrictions.

If another MAX thunders in during the next few months, the fate of Boeing's Commercial Airplane business will be in doubt. This isn't the 1960s where the public tolerates crashes with some regularity.

Thankfully you're not the CEO, because that call makes no sense.

Also i hope you have the funds to cover all the money loss due those "groundings" you've been begging for.


Okay, so let's look at your idea here. Profits over life? Let's just say in the next week another MAX goes down. And they find a major issue... I would hope you have the funds to pay for the massive recalls of the MAX, lawsuits, and loss of orders.

I'm not being snarky by the way. I am just looking at both sides of the issue. Grounding will be costly, but the worst case scenario would be that the planes are found to be a non issue and a crew issue. During the groundings, all airlines operating the MAX have the time to go through the planes and inspect them. If MCAS is the issue, Boeing and the MAX operators can all get on the same page, and maybe find a way to fix it properly. Lion Air at this point should have never happened. If this flight turns into the same issue, then its going to be a major blow to Boeing and its profits.
I Am A Different Animal!!
 
YouGeeElWhy
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 4:37 pm

Etheereal wrote:
YouGeeElWhy wrote:
smokeybandit wrote:
WN might, but the public is going to turn on them soon. The hysteria has already started with the general population on twitter and facebook. We live in an age where groups think the world is flat and vaccines are harmful, what chance does the Max8 have.

What hysteria? You think social networks really matter that much ? At the end of the day, people WILL need to reach their destination, and AA specially will have the 3M8 available for them, just as SW has theirs, and Copa has the M9.
Social media is exactly how hysteria happens. Whatsapp, Facebook, Twitter are all mechanisms of a modern day lynch mobs.


I have doubts about that article too.
Many passengers have taken to social media to tell Southwest that they do not want to fly on any of their MAX 8 aircraft due to safety concerns. Concerns are spreading across the industry. While American Airlines does not have the MAX 8 variant they do have the MAX 9. Waivers are not available for their flights and have told their passengers via Twitter “Your safety is our first priority. We completely understand. We don’t fly 737 Max 8 but we fly 737 Max 9. There are 14 in our fleet. If you prefer not to fly on one we completely understand and will do what is best in our capabilities to find alternative travel arrangements. “

Huh???
 
ytz
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 4:40 pm

Etheereal wrote:
ytz wrote:
Amsterdam wrote:
Listen gentlemen

Its really easy

If you are Boeing and one of the big guys in the top of Boeing, then for sure you have the grounding option on the table.

Whoever is saying grouding the fleet is crazy or whatever show that they should never be in a high position in Boeing.

Of course, Boeing is now in a state of doubt. They wont ground the max fleet immediately. But thinking Boeing will not talk about this within the top management is nonsense.


If I were Boeing's CEO I'd ask for outright grounding of some very severe ops restrictions.

If another MAX thunders in during the next few months, the fate of Boeing's Commercial Airplane business will be in doubt. This isn't the 1960s where the public tolerates crashes with some regularity.

Thankfully you're not the CEO, because that call makes no sense.

Also i hope you have the funds to cover all the money loss due those "groundings" you've been begging for.


I hope Boeing has the funds to cover the coming lawsuits. And possibly personal liability for some of their engineers and execs, if they really did pass over a technical flaw. I expect, we'll see some quiet departures once the immediate story is out of the limelight.....

And yes, this is looking like a worrisome trend to me. Not some random completely uncorrelated incidents. That makes this risk of another incident above zero in the coming months. And god forbid that happens, there will be lots of questions about not just Boeing but the coziness of Western regulators in giving them a type certificate with what now seems to be some substantial changes from the original type cert.


CitizenJustin wrote:
ytz wrote:
ACCS300 wrote:
Although I did admire the MAX I'd be a bit hesitant to fly one until I know more about this horrific crash. As a frequent Canadian domestic flyer, it's gonna be a challenge avoiding the MAX here soon with big orders from AC and Westjet and few if any new NEOs for Canadian carriers in the future.


I really hope AC is thinking of cancelling their MAX order and getting NEOs instead. A dozen and a half dead Canadians. And on the face of it, looks like something is wrong with the aircraft. Either it's build, how training was done by Boeing, manuals, whatever....

I know I am not going to feel comfortable putting myself or a family member on a 737 Max until they absolutely have figured out what's going on. And at the rate this is going, all but guaranteed, there will be another 737 Max crash within months.


So dramatic. You’re already predicting the next crash too. Western nations haven’t had any issues with the Max, and I’d get on one today if need be. What if it turns out that this accident is pilot error, having nothing to do with the plane? I have a feeling you’d still want AC to switch to the NEO.


Planes fly in more than just Western nations. An OEM should be designing their airplane to be as easy to fly as possible. You shouldn't need a 1500 hr American FO to avoid planting an airplane like a lawn dart. And if that's the case, Boeing's sales should be restricted entirely to country's that have such training requirements. I doubt that would make them happy.
 
Superboi
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 4:41 pm

estorilm wrote:
SmokinL1011 wrote:
Whether grounding the Max 8 fleet is justified or reasonable at this point or not, certainly there can be simulator training for MAX 8 pilots to go through the same conditions as the Lion Air flight the day before the crash, the crashed Lion Air flight and now the Ethiopian crash?

Apparently there are VERY few MAX simulators available, ironically due to the apparent commonality of the platform with the NG and that not much has changed.


I think this may also be a critical issue in these two crashes, having aircraft with some significant dynamic characteristics difference flying under one type rating (and training) due to commercial pressures. For example I know the S-76C and S-76D are required to have different type rating because of such difference. I believe crew going to fly 73NG and 73MAX should have different training
 
RossW
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 4:42 pm

Comair (SA) have now grounded their MAX aircaft

https://www.reuters.com/article/ethiopi ... SL3N20Y3E5
 
akb88
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 4:46 pm

Call me a wuss but I just made changes to my flights to avoid the MAX. Flying with 757-300 with Icelandar to Copenhagen and then A320/1 with SAS to Athens instead of Norwegian where there was a good chance I'd be on the MAX. Spent quite a lot of money on this but I feel it's worth it.
Shame about the no WIFI on the short haul flights with SAS though.
 
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OA412
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 4:47 pm

seat64k wrote:
trnswrld wrote:
I always wonder how and why witnesses are so unreliable. I know not everyone knows about aircraft, but how hard is it to fully understand and comprehend what you’re seeing? Just weird how so many people claim to see fire and smoke when they really didn’t. I know I know it would be a very intense situation to see an aircraft crash in front of you, but still.
Now I will say IF this witness is right and there was smoke, then that changes things a lot here.


It's not just eye-witnesses. The problem is our memories in general. Two major problems:

1) We don't remember nearly as much as we would like to think. And where there are gaps, our brains just fill in the gaps drawing on previous experience and/or expectations of the situation, or what ever we have in memory somewhere that will fit somehow. Our brains are literally making stuff up and committing it to memory. And as time passes and real memories become faded, they're vulnerable to being distorted or intruded on. And the brain will happily spin whatever narrative it needs to to make sense of it all.

2) We cant distinguish between real memories and the stuff our brains come up with.

When we see something like a plane crashing in real life, it is almost certainly the first time we've witnessed something like this. But we already have memories of a dozen plane crashes in movies, with all the usual special effects. So when we witness a real life plane crash - a much less pyrotechnic affair than what we've come to expect, the very real memory of it makes no sense at all to our brains, and it will happy fill in the "missing" data, and two hours later we remember smoke and flames were there were none.

:checkmark: Eyewitnesses are notoriously unreliable, not just in aircraft investigation, but also with respect to violent crime. It makes sense. Watching an aircraft fall out of the sky or watching a person get shot are stress inducing experiences. Your not going to be thinking entirely rationally, no matter how hard you try. Your brain will necessarily fill in gaps, or you'll simply remember things that never actually happened. In fact, there's a name for it, the Mandela Effect (also sometimes referred to as alternate realities). It's not that alternate realities actually exist, but that our memories just aren't as good as we think they are. Sometimes we remember things that never actually happened, like believing a famous person who is still alive (i.e. Mandela), died many years ago.
Hughes Airwest - Top Banana In The West
 
Etheereal
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 4:49 pm

YouGeeElWhy wrote:
Etheereal wrote:
YouGeeElWhy wrote:
WN might, but the public is going to turn on them soon. The hysteria has already started with the general population on twitter and facebook. We live in an age where groups think the world is flat and vaccines are harmful, what chance does the Max8 have.

What hysteria? You think social networks really matter that much ? At the end of the day, people WILL need to reach their destination, and AA specially will have the 3M8 available for them, just as SW has theirs, and Copa has the M9.
Social media is exactly how hysteria happens. Whatsapp, Facebook, Twitter are all mechanisms of a modern day lynch mobs.


I have doubts about that article too.
Many passengers have taken to social media to tell Southwest that they do not want to fly on any of their MAX 8 aircraft due to safety concerns. Concerns are spreading across the industry. While American Airlines does not have the MAX 8 variant they do have the MAX 9. Waivers are not available for their flights and have told their passengers via Twitter “Your safety is our first priority. We completely understand. We don’t fly 737 Max 8 but we fly 737 Max 9. There are 14 in our fleet. If you prefer not to fly on one we completely understand and will do what is best in our capabilities to find alternative travel arrangements. “

Huh???

You prob didnt understand me, im not talking that social media doesnt cause hysteria, but that the average US passenger doesnt pay mind to social media to that extent, and they will take whatever means to get a cheap flight to their destination.

Funny part of that is that AA is so out of touch with their own OPS, they dont even know what planes they fly at all. AA does NOT fly the 3M9 but the 8 instead, specially to Quito. Im not sure if UA flies the max9, but Copa does, and Copa uses them on LAX, MIA and JFK(?)
JetBuddy wrote:
"737 slides off the runway" is the new "Florida man"..

:lol:
 
Brandon757
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 4:50 pm

smokeybandit wrote:

I love how the article states that AA does not fly the MAX8, but they do fly the MAX9. Ummmm no.
 
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LaunchDetected
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 4:51 pm

Where i live (somewhere in Europe), Ethiopian Airlines is seen by the public as an unsafe airline just because there is written « Ethiopian ». I use this to distinguish the aviation enthusiast from the uninformed commentator.

ytz wrote:
I hope Boeing has the funds to cover the coming lawsuits.


Filling lawsuits is the main activity of Boeing, sure they have the budget for that. :expressionless:
Last edited by LaunchDetected on Mon Mar 11, 2019 4:52 pm, edited 2 times in total.
Caravelle lover
 
YouGeeElWhy
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 4:51 pm

akb88 wrote:
Call me a wuss but I just made changes to my flights to avoid the MAX. Flying with 757-300 with Icelandar to Copenhagen and then A320/1 with SAS to Athens instead of Norwegian where there was a good chance I'd be on the MAX. Spent quite a lot of money on this but I feel it's worth it.
Shame about the no WIFI on the short haul flights with SAS though.
Shame about those two Max8s pankcaking into the ground. I hope you can survive a couple of hours without connectivity. :roll:
 
alan3
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 4:51 pm

Here's a revolutionary thought. Let's wait and find out what happened before:

1. Insulting the entire airline and its pilots, not to mention entire continents
2. Calling for all airlines not only to ground their MAX fleets but cancel all future orders

I'm sure they are working around the clock to get some answers.

I'm booked on an AC MAX in May and I'm not even thinking about changing my reservation. How many thousands of MAX flights fly are there every day? (Actually not just a rhetorical question I'm genuinely interested)
Last edited by alan3 on Mon Mar 11, 2019 4:54 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
sciing
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 4:51 pm

MD80Ttail wrote:
“”I will start my TR on the NG/MAX in a few months and so it would be nice if there was not a general problem with the Max.
First Job and also less than 250h.””

Shakes head. No one with this low of time should be flying pax in scheduled service or flying any type of mainline aircraft. I know that’s how it’s done everywhere but the USA.....there is a reason we have the safest air travel system in the world.

Yep the US system is proven the best. With FAA supervising it could never happen that serious design flaws gets certification. Li-batteries would be always tested for thermal runaways by production issues. An automatic safety system would not rely on single sensor input and the functionallity would be explained to all pilots.
 
TTailedTiger
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 4:53 pm

Flightsimboy wrote:
trinidadeG wrote:
DGCA rules out grounding of Boeing 737 Max 8 planes in India
After reviewing the matter regarding safety issues post accident of Boeing 737 Max 8 Ethiopian Airline, the Director General of Civil Aviation today, ruled out grounding of Boeing 737 Max 8 planes in India. Currently, SpiceJet has 12 and Jet AirwaysNSE 1.71 % has 5 Boeing 737 Max 8 planes.

However, the aviation watchdog has ordered additional compliance actions for all Boeing 737 Max 8 planes. As an additional safety measure, the DGCA also said that only pilots with 1,000 hours of experience can fly Boeing 737 Max aircraft used by Indian airlines. The new norms will come into effect from March 12.

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/in ... 362666.cms


The numbers increase. Glad to see this preventive action being taken up front. It was such a crime here on a.net to even mention a grounding. Again like the comment "It's just the CAAC" the next comment would be "it's just the DGCA". Sigh!



Increase? Go back and read. The DGCA did not ground the 737Max.
 
AirBoat
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 4:54 pm

being an eyewitness is an acquired or learned skill.
as a structural engineer with a degree and close to 40 years experience, when I visit a building site, I can very quickly see most big errors.
this is due to the fact that I have a frame of reference. i.e. I know what to expect and any missing or incorrect items stand out.
an untrained observer simply does not know what he is seeing and can not judge it properly. this goes for the aircraft speed, size, angle of attack etc. using information from an untrained observer is simply a waste of time. only very basic information should be used.
as for judging sizes, a trained observer will look for some known object he knows the size of and try and get to the size of what he is looking at. the untrained observer will simply guess.
regards
fxl
 
MD80Ttail
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 4:57 pm

sciing wrote:
MD80Ttail wrote:
“”I will start my TR on the NG/MAX in a few months and so it would be nice if there was not a general problem with the Max.
First Job and also less than 250h.””

Shakes head. No one with this low of time should be flying pax in scheduled service or flying any type of mainline aircraft. I know that’s how it’s done everywhere but the USA.....there is a reason we have the safest air travel system in the world.

Yep the US system is proven the best. With FAA supervising it could never happen that serious design flaws gets certification. Li-batteries would be always tested for thermal runaways by production issues. An automatic safety system would not rely on single sensor input and the functionallity would be explained to all pilots.


Only a few countries even have the expertise to design and manufacture an aircraft on the scale of a 737. The US is one of them and in the history commercial aviation the most prolific. The batteries didn’t kill anyone and it was pushing the edge new technology. It’s clear the pilots of the Lion Air flight couldn’t handle flying the plane. The previous flight crew landed just fine with the same issue. We have no idea what caused the ET accident but the experience of the pilots, maintenance and operating culture of the airline does.

If they let people with 200 hrs fly the darn planes how much experience do you think their maintenance people have??
 
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Jouhou
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 4:58 pm

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ethi ... SKBN1QS15F

If the witness account is accurate, it wasn't an mcas issue. Of course those frequently aren't but it does seem to match the combination of scattered goods and scorched parts (although that might just be from crashing on dry land)
 
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Finn350
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 5:04 pm

Jouhou wrote:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ethiopia-airplane/after-ethiopia-crash-horror-some-nations-ground-boeing-737-max-8s-idUSKBN1QS15F

If the witness account is accurate, it wasn't an mcas issue. Of course those frequently aren't but it does seem to match the combination of scattered goods and scorched parts (although that might just be from crashing on dry land)


“The plane was very close to the ground and it made a turn. We looked and saw papers falling off the plane,” Malka Galato, the farmer whose land the plane crashed on, told Reuters from the rural area where horse-drawn carriages ply rough roads.

“Cows that were grazing in the fields ran in panic ... There was smoke and sparks coming from the back of the plane.”

The plane tried to climb but failed, then swerved sharply trailing white smoke and objects including clothes before crashing, said farmer Tamirat Abera, who was walking nearby.


It is not clear whether "smoke and sparks" refer to after the plane hit the ground or before it. To me it would be more logical that smoke and sparks came after the plane had hit the ground.
 
Avgeek21
Posts: 58
Joined: Mon Mar 04, 2019 5:44 am

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 5:07 pm

9w748capt wrote:
Is that for real? The FO had 200 hours, period? Surely they mean 200 hours on the 737 (max or not). Surely you can't become a commercial pilot anywhere in the world with just 200 flying hours? ET is an excellent airline and I'd expect them to have the same standards as anyone else. They have many foreign pilots as well which will make some of you happy. Seems like the captain of this flight was an Ethiopian national though, which I'm sure will lead many of you to just jump to conclusions about that.


Don't know this obsession with hours. Speaking from experience over in Europe I joined a renowned national flag carrier with 185:20hr TOTAL time. That's a CPL (IR+ME) and add to that your usual simulator hours both in training and typerating. I started linetraining with those 185:20hrs and was released on the line with 235 hrs TOTAL time. Never had any training issues, retakes or fails. Just because other parts of the world do it differently doesn't make one or the other better or worse. With the right training, attitude and company ethos it's a non issue in my opinion. I'm now left seat on a 737. Pretty common in Europe at least.
 
dtw2hyd
Posts: 7116
Joined: Wed Jan 09, 2013 12:11 pm

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 5:07 pm

MD80Ttail wrote:
...
If they let people with 200 hrs fly the darn planes how much experience do you think their maintenance people have??


Does "Aveos" ring the bell?

The way redundancy is designed, assuming PIC has 5000 hrs and FO has 500 hrs. If the PIC side sensor fails, the 500 hr FO becomes PF. 5000 hrs experience crew member has to sit tight and watch in horror.

Am I wrong?
 
buzzard302
Posts: 156
Joined: Sat Jun 06, 2015 12:06 pm

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 5:09 pm

Amateur opinion here. The MAX planes are more high tech than the last variant. The pilots and maintenance may or may not be up to speed. It could be a problem with the plane, it could be a problem with the airline. It could be a combination of both. Regardless of the root cause, Boeing has to quickly play clean up as their reputation and financials depend on it. Even if it turns out to be 100% the airlines fault, I'd expect Boeing to play an active role in the investigation in order to come out as clean as possible.
 
StormRider
Posts: 97
Joined: Wed Feb 13, 2019 11:12 pm

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 5:13 pm

MD80Ttail wrote:
... It’s clear the pilots of the Lion Air flight couldn’t handle flying the plane. The previous flight crew landed just fine with the same issue. We have no idea what caused the ET accident but the experience of the pilots, maintenance and operating culture of the airline does.

you say clearly Lion Air pilots were at fault (but previous Lion Air pilots were fine?). So do we have the investigation report from the LionAir crash already?
as you said we have no idea what caused the ET but still based on inexperience of FO you have apportioned blame on the pilots completely (captain had 8000 hours)?
It is likely some pilot error or inexperience with the Max 8 contributed (as always with a combination of factors) but we don't know for sure yet!
 
ytz
Posts: 3529
Joined: Thu Jun 25, 2009 12:31 am

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 5:13 pm

Avgeek21 wrote:
9w748capt wrote:
Is that for real? The FO had 200 hours, period? Surely they mean 200 hours on the 737 (max or not). Surely you can't become a commercial pilot anywhere in the world with just 200 flying hours? ET is an excellent airline and I'd expect them to have the same standards as anyone else. They have many foreign pilots as well which will make some of you happy. Seems like the captain of this flight was an Ethiopian national though, which I'm sure will lead many of you to just jump to conclusions about that.


Don't know this obsession with hours. Speaking from experience over in Europe I joined a renowned national flag carrier with 185:20hr TOTAL time. That's a CPL (IR+ME) and add to that your usual simulator hours both in training and typerating. I started linetraining with those 185:20hrs and was released on the line with 235 hrs TOTAL time. Never had any training issues, retakes or fails. Just because other parts of the world do it differently doesn't make one or the other better or worse. With the right training, attitude and company ethos it's a non issue in my opinion. I'm now left seat on a 737. Pretty common in Europe at least.


Biased to what they know. They think these guys are just puttering around in Cessnas shooting a few approaches here and there before they get dropped into the right seat of a 737. Quality of your training time matters as much if not more than total time.
 
ytz
Posts: 3529
Joined: Thu Jun 25, 2009 12:31 am

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 5:15 pm

buzzard302 wrote:
Amateur opinion here. The MAX planes are more high tech than the last variant. The pilots and maintenance may or may not be up to speed. It could be a problem with the plane, it could be a problem with the airline. It could be a combination of both. Regardless of the root cause, Boeing has to quickly play clean up as their reputation and financials depend on it. Even if it turns out to be 100% the airlines fault, I'd expect Boeing to play an active role in the investigation in order to come out as clean as possible.


Swiss cheese model. Most likely a combination of both. But that would mean Boeing doesn't have the clean hands that a lot of their defenders here are pushing.
 
HaulSudson
Posts: 70
Joined: Tue Feb 12, 2019 6:02 pm

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 5:17 pm

sciing wrote:
MD80Ttail wrote:
“”I will start my TR on the NG/MAX in a few months and so it would be nice if there was not a general problem with the Max.
First Job and also less than 250h.””

Shakes head. No one with this low of time should be flying pax in scheduled service or flying any type of mainline aircraft. I know that’s how it’s done everywhere but the USA.....there is a reason we have the safest air travel system in the world.

Yep the US system is proven the best. With FAA supervising it could never happen that serious design flaws gets certification. Li-batteries would be always tested for thermal runaways by production issues. An automatic safety system would not rely on single sensor input and the functionallity would be explained to all pilots.


Brilliant.
 
2175301
Posts: 1506
Joined: Wed May 16, 2007 11:19 am

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 5:19 pm

F9Animal wrote:
Lion Air at this point should have never happened. If this flight turns into the same issue, then its going to be a major blow to Boeing and its profits.


Normally you are more reasonable F9Animal.

Its been a while since I followed the Lion Air crash thread; but, my memory is that issues with airline procedures had been identified as contributing causes; and no single failure of a system like MCAS should crash an aircraft. While MCAS is certainly to be identified as a contributing factor in the Lion Air crash. It is just as likely that inadequate training, procedures, and loss of situational awareness will be identified as the major reasons (Root Causes) behind the Lion Air Crash.

Similar findings for the Ethiopian Crash may come out (and if the Pilots did not know how to turn off the MCAS system that is clearly in the training/pilot error grouping at this time).

So, Please explain to me how you see it that if it turns out that both Ethiopian and Lion air turn out to be principally things within the airline and pilots control... that Boeing will take a major blow?

Such speculation does not help this thread...

Lets see what comes out of the investigation. Now that they have the CVR and FDR we might find ourselves with some key information within a few days (or at least the investigation team will) that may steer them totally away from any involvement of the MCAS.

Boeing will accept fault for what part they are responsible for. They have done so in the past. However, please keep in mind that design error is rarely the cause of a crash or significant damage to an aircraft in the last decade or so. I believe that improper assembly (assembly mistakes) rates higher.

Honeywell was responsible for burning and destroyed a new Ethiopian Airlines 787 in 2014 due to assembly error of an emergency locator beacon. Very fortunately it happened on the ground and not in the air with passengers and crew - which was only by chance. Honeywell accepted that they were responsible (I understand that every employee in that division and new employee gets to watch a video of the event and investigation; and have emphasized that they have to be doubly careful on assembly).

Was the 787 battery shorting issue more a responsibility of Boeing - or GS Yuasa, as GS Yuasa had assured Boeing that the failure rate was much lower and their quality higher than what happened in real life.

So lets wait and see what the investigation finds. Even if its a component failure... it may be primarily the responsibility of a supplier and not Boeing.

Have a great day,
 
KarlB737
Posts: 2757
Joined: Sat Mar 20, 2004 9:51 pm

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 5:21 pm

MD80Ttail wrote:
We have no idea what caused the ET accident but the experience of the pilots, maintenance and operating culture of the airline does. If they let people with 200 hrs fly the darn planes how much experience do you think their maintenance people have??


I believe that one point has been over looked here. 350 of the 737-8 MAX have been put into service. 348 are still flying OK as of today. While I would guess this will end up being a pilot experience problem as reflected by MD80tail above I prefer to withhold final judgement (as others have rightly recommended) until the facts are on the table. The orange boxes (yes I said orange) boxes have been obtained and I predict some info will surface real soon and then we will have the truth. Therefore, a grounding I believe is premature especially since I believe the cause will be known real soon.
 
AviationBob
Posts: 14
Joined: Sun Mar 10, 2019 1:14 pm

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 5:21 pm

I am just as suspicious of the Pilot training and maintenance practices in these crashes as I am with a potential problem inherent in the 737 Max design. Especially knowing that Lion Air didn’t remove their plane from service when they should have and that Ethiopian is allowing an inexperienced 200 hour FO to sit in the right seat.
 
smokeybandit
Posts: 1076
Joined: Mon Mar 17, 2014 3:24 pm

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 5:22 pm

RossW wrote:
Comair (SA) have now grounded their MAX aircaft

https://www.reuters.com/article/ethiopi ... SL3N20Y3E5


Their lone aircraft.
 
kalvado
Posts: 2024
Joined: Wed Mar 01, 2006 4:29 am

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 5:23 pm

alan3 wrote:
How many thousands of MAX flights fly are there every day? (Actually not just a rhetorical question I'm genuinely interested)

With 350 frames in service and (fairly optimistic) 6 legs per day, that would be 2000 flights a day.
Nominal crash rate today is 1 in 20 million flights worldwide, that is roughly 1 crash in 10k days~30 years for the fleet that big.
 
akb88
Posts: 153
Joined: Sat Feb 09, 2019 2:44 am

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 5:26 pm

YouGeeElWhy wrote:
akb88 wrote:
Call me a wuss but I just made changes to my flights to avoid the MAX. Flying with 757-300 with Icelandar to Copenhagen and then A320/1 with SAS to Athens instead of Norwegian where there was a good chance I'd be on the MAX. Spent quite a lot of money on this but I feel it's worth it.
Shame about the no WIFI on the short haul flights with SAS though.
Shame about those two Max8s pankcaking into the ground. I hope you can survive a couple of hours without connectivity. :roll:


My post came out wrong, obviously nothing compares to the horror of what happened to those poor people.
 
MD80Ttail
Posts: 159
Joined: Wed Dec 07, 2016 1:22 am

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 5:27 pm

StormRider wrote:
MD80Ttail wrote:
... It’s clear the pilots of the Lion Air flight couldn’t handle flying the plane. The previous flight crew landed just fine with the same issue. We have no idea what caused the ET accident but the experience of the pilots, maintenance and operating culture of the airline does.

you say clearly Lion Air pilots were at fault (but previous Lion Air pilots were fine?). So do we have the investigation report from the LionAir crash already?
as you said we have no idea what caused the ET but still based on inexperience of FO you have apportioned blame on the pilots completely (captain had 8000 hours)?
It is likely some pilot error or inexperience with the Max 8 contributed (as always with a combination of factors) but we don't know for sure yet!


We do have prelim reports stating the Lion aircraft had problems on previous flights and we know those flight crews landed safely. We do not know what caused the accident on the fatal flight but we do know MCAS can be disabled by following proper procedures for trim issues.

I haven’t apportioned blame on the ET crew. They may have done everything properly. They may have made zero mistakes. My point is 200hrs pilots are at a substantially less advantage to be part of a solution...especially one that may require prior experience to handle. Don’t for a min think a 200 hr pilot would have landed successfully in the Hudson, or commanded UA232 to a survivable landing. High time pilots can and do screw up. That’s all the more reason not to let absurdly low time pilots fly mainline planes.

Even if the ET crew did everything properly and by the book the passengers would have been better served and had a potentially better outcome with a more experienced crew. As a commercial pilot...I’ve flown with good and bad btw......if somthing major happens I personally much rather have someone sitting next to me with more than 200 hrs. Does it matter 99.9 percent of the times?? Nope. But I don’t get paid for the 99.9 percent of times. I get paid for that that .00001 percent and I get paid for my experience, seasoning and knowledge.
 
MD80Ttail
Posts: 159
Joined: Wed Dec 07, 2016 1:22 am

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 5:33 pm

I consider myself a very average pilot with average stick and rudder skills. I was probably at my sharpest when I flew the MU2 all night delivering checks back when people wrote checks. The point is though even when I was building hours trying to get hired at a major I had more than 200 hrs. My “first” job as a CFI I had more than 200hrs. Looking back then vs now there is no way at 200 hrs I could handle a major emergency. Could I now? I certainly have a lot more experience and knowledge now than I did many meany years ago at 200hrs. The company I worked for wouldn’t even hire comeone to fly checks at less than 1,000hrs.

I’d be willing to be if the average passenger knew how little experience some flight crews have they would be panicked. I have flown with plenty of 1500hr guys and gals so far behind the plane it scared me. I can’t imagine having 200 hrs and flying a mainline plane. I’m lucky I didn’t kill myself in the MU2 with 1,000hrs.
Last edited by MD80Ttail on Mon Mar 11, 2019 5:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
kalvado
Posts: 2024
Joined: Wed Mar 01, 2006 4:29 am

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 5:34 pm

MD80Ttail wrote:
StormRider wrote:
MD80Ttail wrote:
... It’s clear the pilots of the Lion Air flight couldn’t handle flying the plane. The previous flight crew landed just fine with the same issue. We have no idea what caused the ET accident but the experience of the pilots, maintenance and operating culture of the airline does.

you say clearly Lion Air pilots were at fault (but previous Lion Air pilots were fine?). So do we have the investigation report from the LionAir crash already?
as you said we have no idea what caused the ET but still based on inexperience of FO you have apportioned blame on the pilots completely (captain had 8000 hours)?
It is likely some pilot error or inexperience with the Max 8 contributed (as always with a combination of factors) but we don't know for sure yet!


We do have prelim reports stating the Lion aircraft had problems on previous flights and we know those flight crews landed safely. We do not know what caused the accident on the fatal flight but we do know MCAS can be disabled by following proper procedures for trim issues.

I haven’t apportioned blame on the ET crew. They may have done everything properly. They may have made zero mistakes. My point is 200hrs pilots are at a substantially less advantage to be part of a solution...especially one that may require prior experience to handle. Don’t for a min think a 200 hr pilot would have landed successfully in the Hudson, or commanded UA232 to a survivable landing. High time pilots can and do screw up. That’s all the more reason not to let absurdly low time pilots fly mainline planes.

Even if the ET crew did everything properly and by the book the passengers would have been better served and had a potentially better outcome with a more experienced crew. As a commercial pilot...I’ve flown with good and bad btw......if somthing major happens I personally much rather have someone sitting next to me with more than 200 hrs. Does it matter 99.9 percent of the times?? Nope. But I don’t get paid for the 99.9 percent of times. I get paid for that that .00001 percent and I get paid for my experience, seasoning and knowledge.

Of course experience matters. But every pilot - you included - at some point was flying the jet for the first time.
A question often asked - how much hours earned dusting crops in Cessna contributes to a jet experience? I don't know. For me age is a factor, and while pilots under 20 get certified, I still wonder about some things I did at that age (technical stuff, not drinking or something along those lines). But then yes, at some point there has to be a first revenue flight in a jet for any pilot - and a good thing there is a grey-haired guy in a left seat during that flight..
 
mxaxai
Posts: 1155
Joined: Sat Jun 18, 2016 7:29 am

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 5:39 pm

Finn350 wrote:
“The plane was very close to the ground and it made a turn. We looked and saw papers falling off the plane,” Malka Galato, the farmer whose land the plane crashed on, told Reuters from the rural area where horse-drawn carriages ply rough roads.

“Cows that were grazing in the fields ran in panic ... There was smoke and sparks coming from the back of the plane.”

The plane tried to climb but failed, then swerved sharply trailing white smoke and objects including clothes before crashing, said farmer Tamirat Abera, who was walking nearby.


It is not clear whether "smoke and sparks" refer to after the plane hit the ground or before it. To me it would be more logical that smoke and sparks came after the plane had hit the ground.

"trailing ... clothes" would imply that (1) something opened up the fuselage and (2a) separated people from their clothing or more likely (2b) damaged suitcases and exposed their contents to the airstream. However, I cannot see any debris in front of the impact crater. I also haven't seen any reports of large debris being found in other places. The crater implies an impact at high velocity. It is thus unlikely that the aircraft disintegrated before impact.

The clothes were most likely seen flying after the crash.

"White smoke" could be any kind of dispersed fluid - fuel, hydraulics, water. But I'd bet on condensed humidity / clouds.
Wikipedia wrote:
Condensation of water vapor in wing tip vortices is most common on aircraft flying at high angles of attack, such as fighter aircraft in high g maneuvers, or airliners taking off and landing on humid days.


"Tried to climb but failed" could mean that the nose was pointing up or that the aircraft was pulling out of a dive but couldn't complete the maneuver before impact. This would be in line with possible high g maneuvers and visible condensation.

"Swerved sharply" must've been after the impact. You can't swerve sharply and then bury your plane as deep as this one. I could imagine the plane to briefly "cartwheel" (and then disintegrate) during the impact if a wingtip caught a tree or hit the ground first. This could look like a fast turn into the ground.
Quite likely if the wings weren't level, which "it made a turn" already hints at. I doubt that they saw a proper turn.
 
User avatar
scbriml
Posts: 17487
Joined: Wed Jul 02, 2003 10:37 pm

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 5:39 pm

KarlB737 wrote:
I believe that one point has been over looked here. 350 of the 737-8 MAX have been put into service. 348 are still flying OK as of today.


One point that seems to be overlooked by many people is that we have 300+ dead bodies on our hands.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
WIederling
Posts: 8888
Joined: Sun Sep 13, 2015 2:15 pm

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 5:42 pm

Flightsimboy wrote:
I stand corrected. However the max 1000 hours experience is a step in the right direction.


How are you actually expected to get to 1000hours on the MAX before you are allowed to do commercial flying?
borrow one for joyriding?
Murphy is an optimist
 
smokeybandit
Posts: 1076
Joined: Mon Mar 17, 2014 3:24 pm

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 5:43 pm

scbriml wrote:
KarlB737 wrote:
I believe that one point has been over looked here. 350 of the 737-8 MAX have been put into service. 348 are still flying OK as of today.


One point that seems to be overlooked by many people is that we have 300+ dead bodies on our hands.


Somehow I doubt anyone is "overlooking" that fact.

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