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lightsaber
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 5:43 pm

MD80Ttail wrote:
I consider myself a very average pilot with average stick and rudder skills. I was probably at my sharpest when I flew the MU2 all night delivering checks back when people wrote checks. The point is though even when I was building hours trying to get hired at a major I had more than 200 hrs. My “first” job as a CFI I had more than 200hrs. Looking back then vs now there is no way at 200 hrs I could handle a major emergency. Could I now? I certainly have a lot more experience and knowledge now than I did many meany years ago at 200hrs. The company I worked for wouldn’t even hire comeone to fly checks at less than 1,000hrs.

I’d be willing to be if the average passenger knew how little experience some flight crews have they would be panicked. I have flown with plenty of 1500hr guys and gals so far behind the plane it scared me. I can’t imagine having 200 hrs and flying a mainline plane. I’m lucky I didn’t kill myself in the MU2 with 1,000hrs.

The old (WW2 era) rule of thumb is 600 hours to master the skills needed for an emergency.

If the copilot (I assume) only had 200 hours, that is scary.

Lightsaber
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Flightsimboy
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 5:44 pm

WIederling wrote:
Flightsimboy wrote:
I stand corrected. However the max 1000 hours experience is a step in the right direction.


How are you actually expected to get to 1000hours on the MAX before you are allowed to do commercial flying?
borrow one for joyriding?


Not my decision but the DGCA. You would be better off asking them.
LAX772LR - "Answer to goofy question:" in response to my question about the B737-MAX8 being grounded. 48 hours later all B737-MAX8 grounded worldwide. Go figure!!
 
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 5:45 pm

WIederling wrote:
Flightsimboy wrote:
I stand corrected. However the max 1000 hours experience is a step in the right direction.


How are you actually expected to get to 1000hours on the MAX before you are allowed to do commercial flying?
borrow one for joyriding?

The article says the Indian DGCA requires a minimum 1000hours Total for PIC and 500 Hours total for FO flying the 737MAX. Its the same for the NG anyway.
 
WIederling
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 5:47 pm

smokeybandit wrote:
Somehow I doubt anyone is "overlooking" that fact.


For some it just seems to have lesser weight than airlines or Boeing's money :-)
Murphy is an optimist
 
ytz
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 5:48 pm

scbriml wrote:
KarlB737 wrote:
I believe that one point has been over looked here. 350 of the 737-8 MAX have been put into service. 348 are still flying OK as of today.


One point that seems to be overlooked by many people is that we have 300+ dead bodies on our hands.


They aren't overlooking it. They don't care. They'd happily risk adding another 300 to the count before admitting that precaution is warranted. It's amazing what people justify when their wallet, ego, pride, etc. is on the line.

I have to wonder which carriers some of these folks work for and what the safety culture is there and what they'd let pass to make their numbers.
 
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Moose135
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 5:50 pm

MD80Ttail wrote:
Back on topic and perhaps a new thread should be made.....but no one with 200 hrs should be in the cockpit of any passenger plane with the name Boeing, Airbus, Bombardier(now Airbus) ect ect ect. That’s not safe. That’s not ok. The fact it’s done astounds me. It’s also one of the many reasons flying outside of the US is more dangerous overall including Europe.


And yet, the US Air Force will take someone off the street with no flight experience, put them through training, and sit them in the cockpit of a large, multi-engine cargo, tanker, or bomber aircraft - or even in a high performance, single-seat, fighter/attack aircraft, with only a couple of hundred hours experience. It's been a hundred years, but when I went through UPT with the Air Force, I graduated (rated pilot) with 185 hours flight time. Another 65 hours (half of that sitting in the jump seat watching the other co-pilot trainee) and I was a fully certified KC-135 copilot. Maybe I didn't belong there either...or maybe it's not about the hours, but the quality of the training.

Oh, and just wondering, how did Jacob van Zanten's 11K+ hours serve him in preventing the Tenerife disaster?
Last edited by Moose135 on Mon Mar 11, 2019 5:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.
KC-135 - Passing gas and taking names!
 
smokeybandit
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 5:53 pm

ytz wrote:
scbriml wrote:
KarlB737 wrote:
I believe that one point has been over looked here. 350 of the 737-8 MAX have been put into service. 348 are still flying OK as of today.


One point that seems to be overlooked by many people is that we have 300+ dead bodies on our hands.


They aren't overlooking it. They don't care. They'd happily risk adding another 300 to the count before admitting that precaution is warranted. It's amazing what people justify when their wallet, ego, pride, etc. is on the line.

I have to wonder which carriers some of these folks work for and what the safety culture is there and what they'd let pass to make their numbers.


Cool thing about humans. They can mentally multitask. This site is about aviation discussion. And that seems to be what discussion is focusing on.
 
9w748capt
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 5:55 pm

Avgeek21 wrote:
9w748capt wrote:
Is that for real? The FO had 200 hours, period? Surely they mean 200 hours on the 737 (max or not). Surely you can't become a commercial pilot anywhere in the world with just 200 flying hours? ET is an excellent airline and I'd expect them to have the same standards as anyone else. They have many foreign pilots as well which will make some of you happy. Seems like the captain of this flight was an Ethiopian national though, which I'm sure will lead many of you to just jump to conclusions about that.


Don't know this obsession with hours. Speaking from experience over in Europe I joined a renowned national flag carrier with 185:20hr TOTAL time. That's a CPL (IR+ME) and add to that your usual simulator hours both in training and typerating. I started linetraining with those 185:20hrs and was released on the line with 235 hrs TOTAL time. Never had any training issues, retakes or fails. Just because other parts of the world do it differently doesn't make one or the other better or worse. With the right training, attitude and company ethos it's a non issue in my opinion. I'm now left seat on a 737. Pretty common in Europe at least.


Good to know. I honestly had no idea if this that number of hours was a huge anomaly or not. I'll admit I'm rather unfamiliar even what the US requirements are hours-wise. And I have the utmost respect for ET - I very much doubt they would've put an unqualified FO in the cockpit of a real-life commercial flight.
 
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SheikhDjibouti
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 6:02 pm

OA412 wrote:
Eyewitnesses are notoriously unreliable, not just in aircraft investigation, but also with respect to violent crime. It makes sense. Watching an aircraft fall out of the sky or watching a person get shot are stress inducing experiences. Your not going to be thinking entirely rationally, no matter how hard you try. Your brain will necessarily fill in gaps, or you'll simply remember things that never actually happened. In fact, there's a name for it, the Mandela Effect (also sometimes referred to as alternate realities). It's not that alternate realities actually exist, but that our memories just aren't as good as we think they are. Sometimes we remember things that never actually happened, like believing a famous person who is still alive (i.e. Mandela), died many years ago.

Mea culpa - I'm just as guilty of that myself, like for instance even today I have this crazy idea that Nelson Mandela died on 5th December 2013.

I'm sorry - I've never been able to resist an open goal. :lol:
Nothing to see here; move along please.
 
IADCA
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 6:08 pm

KarlB737 wrote:
MD80Ttail wrote:
We have no idea what caused the ET accident but the experience of the pilots, maintenance and operating culture of the airline does. If they let people with 200 hrs fly the darn planes how much experience do you think their maintenance people have??


I believe that one point has been over looked here. 350 of the 737-8 MAX have been put into service. 348 are still flying OK as of today.


The MAX has been in service well under 2 years, and most of the 350 frames have done much less than that. Even if you use the mathematical fiction that all 350 had been flying for 2 full years, you're talking about a loss rate of almost .6% of the active fleet in 2 years, or almost .3% per year. Might not sound like much until you realize that an equivalent rate would be 4.5 hull losses per year for the 777 or approximately 20 hull losses every single year for the 737NG. And again, that's actually a gross underestimation of the loss rate so far, so that "348 out of 350 are still flying ok" is not a comforting statistic. It might end up being meaningless as the frame might not have been at all at fault here, but that's not a number that helps me sleep: quite the opposite, actually.
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 6:09 pm

Res eye witness being unreliable:

This is somewhat a linguistic problem. The denigration of eye witnesses is, to my mind totally inappropriate. Investigators are trained to interview eye witnesses and extract as accurately as possible what they actually saw, not their interpretation. If it was as impossible as people seem to suggest accident investigators would simply not bother and tell eye witnesses to shut up and get lost. Particularly when evidence is sparse and causes unknown every bit of data is of potential use. If one of us were to witness a serious plane crash (I have seen one) it is useful to immediately put into words (mentally) what you saw. You don't need to make sense of the data. Just confirm in your own mind what you saw immediately, and leave the interpretation to experts. I saw some phenomena as a child during an earthquake that didn't make sense. I always wondered why until decades later an earthquake scientist explained to me why I saw it like I did. We now have two eye witnesses on the ground, they have reported what they saw. Investigators will break down what they said into specific pieces of data, and determine what the meaning of what they reported. There is about a dozen data points. It is useful. It is not gospel.
Last edited by frmrCapCadet on Mon Mar 11, 2019 6:15 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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achmafooma
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 6:11 pm

From Reuters: "Half a dozen witnesses interviewed by Reuters in the farmland where the plane came down reported smoke billowing out behind, while four of them also described a loud sound. 'It was a loud rattling sound. Like straining and shaking metal,' said Turn Buzuna, a 26-year-old housewife and farmer who lives about 300 meters (328 yards) from the crash site."

Ethiopian plane smoked and shuddered before deadly plunge:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ethi ... SKBN1QS1LJ
 
StormRider
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 6:11 pm

WIederling wrote:
Flightsimboy wrote:
I stand corrected. However the max 1000 hours experience is a step in the right direction.


How are you actually expected to get to 1000hours on the MAX before you are allowed to do commercial flying?
borrow one for joyriding?

Not max but on 737 itself.

"The minimum experience level of crew operating B737 Max aircraft to fly as PIC (Pilot-in-Command) is 1,000 hours and co-pilot is 500 hours on Boeing 737 NG aircraft type," the regulator said.
https://www.news18.com/news/india/only- ... 63707.html
 
Etheereal
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 6:14 pm

scbriml wrote:
KarlB737 wrote:
I believe that one point has been over looked here. 350 of the 737-8 MAX have been put into service. 348 are still flying OK as of today.


One point that seems to be overlooked by many people is that we have 300+ dead bodies on our hands.

Ours? Oh so its your fault those two 3M8 are down? I see..

Officers yes, this post over here.
JetBuddy wrote:
"737 slides off the runway" is the new "Florida man"..

:lol:
 
ikramerica
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 6:14 pm

log0008 wrote:
nachopants wrote:
I have been reading this thread like many of us day & night.

There's one thing I haven't seen considered.

If MCAS is about countering a "predicted stall" and the pilots were already reporting "air speed trouble" .... could it have kicked in purely because the plane though it was stalling, even though it wasn't, perhaps because of failing engines?


If MCAS is involved it will definitely be because the aircraft thought it was stalling when it wasn't however this is most likely due to a failed Sensor which feeds the system.

We dont know that. We honestly don’t know it wasn’t stalling...
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
MD80Ttail
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 6:23 pm

Moose135 wrote:
MD80Ttail wrote:
Back on topic and perhaps a new thread should be made.....but no one with 200 hrs should be in the cockpit of any passenger plane with the name Boeing, Airbus, Bombardier(now Airbus) ect ect ect. That’s not safe. That’s not ok. The fact it’s done astounds me. It’s also one of the many reasons flying outside of the US is more dangerous overall including Europe.


And yet, the US Air Force will take someone off the street with no flight experience, put them through training, and sit them in the cockpit of a large, multi-engine cargo, tanker, or bomber aircraft - or even in a high performance, single-seat, fighter/attack aircraft, with only a couple of hundred hours experience. It's been a hundred years, but when I went through UPT with the Air Force, I graduated (rated pilot) with 185 hours flight time. Another 65 hours (half of that sitting in the jump seat watching the other co-pilot trainee) and I was a fully certified KC-135 copilot. Maybe I didn't belong there either...or maybe it's not about the hours, but the quality of the training.

Oh, and just wondering, how did Jacob van Zanten's 11K+ hours serve him in preventing the Tenerife disaster?


I assure you Lion Air and ET’s training do not rival the USAF. Further I qualified my comments by saying mainline pax planes.

Highly experienced pilots do screw up. For VanZanten it was his personality that was the problem not his experience. Same as driving.

Picture a school bus. Technically a 16yo or let’s say even a 22yo—neither of which has ever driven at all—can study every handbook and learn about the motor and brakes / air brakes and about the tires ect ect. They can sit in some classroom time. They can drive the school bus sim. They can even drive a smaller “trainer” model of the bus. After 150 or 200hrs of bus and driving training put them on the road in a major city like LA or London or Addis Ababa and let them drive around a few times with an experienced instructor next to them. Then load up the bus with 50 kids and send this brand new driver with only 150-200hrs total time behind the wheel....any wheel....and see how they do. Now maybe they do well and are talented and mature and nothing bad happens. Maybe they crash and kill a bunch of kids. Maybe they crash into another school bus or even two and kill a whole lotta kids.

I don’t think very many parents would be ok letting someone that never had a driver’s lic driving their kids school bus in a major city.

Now I know some will say well heck this doesn’t apply to commercial plane they have an experienced captain sitting next to them. A plane is a bit harder to “drive” than a bus IMHO. What if that very experienced captain has a heart attack or stroke?

Would you rather have a driver with 10 years of experience and many thousands of miles if not a couple 100 thousand miles of experience driving that school bus in the snow, rain, traffic and high winds or do you really think the 150-200hr driver is equally as good as a more exeprienced one? Sure there are one offs, VanZantens driving school busses with maybe a million miles experience that do something stupid and people get hurt but it’s a lot more likely the more experienced “driver” will have a better outcome than a less experienced “driver” —especially in bad weather.

The same thing goes with surgeons. There are some talented and gifted heart surgeons just out of their residency but if you need a heart transplant do you want the guy that’s done 5 transplants or the guy that’s done 5,000 in his career.

Do you want the cop that’s brand spanking new responding to the multiple shooter hostage situation or would you rather a cop that’s been on the beat 5-10-15 years?

Past performance is not always indicative of future results but it’s a very good predictor.

To the people that said I can’t prove otherwise....I can.

BEA Stains crash 1972 / Trident It’s reasonably certain a more experienced FO and FE would not have been intimidated by the overbearing captain that most likely became incapataited and retracted the droops too early causing the plane to crash

Air Florida 90 / neither pilot had experience flying in the snow

There are more but I’m out of time at the moment.
Last edited by MD80Ttail on Mon Mar 11, 2019 6:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
Norlander
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 6:24 pm

From this article on The Guardian's website.

Image

The top right is the last radar signal received from the flight, the bottom is the crash site.
Longtime Lurker
 
WIederling
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 6:25 pm

ikramerica wrote:
log0008 wrote:
nachopants wrote:
I have been reading this thread like many of us day & night.

There's one thing I haven't seen considered.

If MCAS is about countering a "predicted stall" and the pilots were already reporting "air speed trouble" .... could it have kicked in purely because the plane though it was stalling, even though it wasn't, perhaps because of failing engines?


If MCAS is involved it will definitely be because the aircraft thought it was stalling when it wasn't however this is most likely due to a failed Sensor which feeds the system.

We dont know that. We honestly don’t know it wasn’t stalling...


for a 737 class airplane:
How does it sound when you do a nosedive in clean configuration?
What happens to the engines?
Will things come off?
Murphy is an optimist
 
MD80Ttail
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 6:25 pm

9w748capt wrote:
Avgeek21 wrote:
9w748capt wrote:
Is that for real? The FO had 200 hours, period? Surely they mean 200 hours on the 737 (max or not). Surely you can't become a commercial pilot anywhere in the world with just 200 flying hours? ET is an excellent airline and I'd expect them to have the same standards as anyone else. They have many foreign pilots as well which will make some of you happy. Seems like the captain of this flight was an Ethiopian national though, which I'm sure will lead many of you to just jump to conclusions about that.


Don't know this obsession with hours. Speaking from experience over in Europe I joined a renowned national flag carrier with 185:20hr TOTAL time. That's a CPL (IR+ME) and add to that your usual simulator hours both in training and typerating. I started linetraining with those 185:20hrs and was released on the line with 235 hrs TOTAL time. Never had any training issues, retakes or fails. Just because other parts of the world do it differently doesn't make one or the other better or worse. With the right training, attitude and company ethos it's a non issue in my opinion. I'm now left seat on a 737. Pretty common in Europe at least.


Good to know. I honestly had no idea if this that number of hours was a huge anomaly or not. I'll admit I'm rather unfamiliar even what the US requirements are hours-wise. And I have the utmost respect for ET - I very much doubt they would've put an unqualified FO in the cockpit of a real-life commercial flight.



Never said the FO wasn’t qualified. My argument is at 200hrs total time the FO cannot have enough experience to act as an equal to the Captain in any flight deck.
 
Scorpio
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 6:27 pm

MD80Ttail wrote:
[but no one with 200 hrs should be in the cockpit of any passenger plane with the name Boeing, Airbus, Bombardier(now Airbus) ect ect ect. That’s not safe. That’s not ok. The fact it’s done astounds me. It’s also one of the many reasons flying outside of the US is more dangerous overall including Europe. (Wait is that racist?? It’s a fact too)

Please name one accident in Europe that was caused by a pilot who had fewer than the minimum number of required hours of flying in North America, where that lack of experience played a role.

One. We'll be waiting.
 
pintail21
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 6:37 pm

SmokinL1011 wrote:
Whether grounding the Max 8 fleet is justified or reasonable at this point or not, certainly there can be simulator training for MAX 8 pilots to go through the same conditions as the Lion Air flight the day before the crash, the crashed Lion Air flight and now the Ethiopian crash?


How exactly can you replicate the flight in the sim if there are no facts that point to a possible cause? The smoking gun in the Lion Air crash was found, but the chain of why each mistake happened (like signing off on a bad repair) will still take time to discover.

The only thing we know about this crash is the pilots had a major problem on their hands and it crashed and killed everyone. The data recorders were just found and they are probably still cleaning them. The facts will come out and any action between now and the facts coming out is pure speculation and panic.
 
ytz
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 6:37 pm

Moose135 wrote:
MD80Ttail wrote:
Back on topic and perhaps a new thread should be made.....but no one with 200 hrs should be in the cockpit of any passenger plane with the name Boeing, Airbus, Bombardier(now Airbus) ect ect ect. That’s not safe. That’s not ok. The fact it’s done astounds me. It’s also one of the many reasons flying outside of the US is more dangerous overall including Europe.


And yet, the US Air Force will take someone off the street with no flight experience, put them through training, and sit them in the cockpit of a large, multi-engine cargo, tanker, or bomber aircraft - or even in a high performance, single-seat, fighter/attack aircraft, with only a couple of hundred hours experience. It's been a hundred years, but when I went through UPT with the Air Force, I graduated (rated pilot) with 185 hours flight time. Another 65 hours (half of that sitting in the jump seat watching the other co-pilot trainee) and I was a fully certified KC-135 copilot. Maybe I didn't belong there either...or maybe it's not about the hours, but the quality of the training.

Oh, and just wondering, how did Jacob van Zanten's 11K+ hours serve him in preventing the Tenerife disaster?


"I had to get thousands of hours before they let me touch a passenger airplane, therefore, anybody who doesn't have thousands of hours before touching a passenger airplane is unqualified."

Absolutely agree with you. Same thing in Canada. We have winged pilots in the RCAF with less than 300 hrs. And they are operationally flying Hercs with about ~400 hrs when they start. And we'll put 80 paratroopers in the back with them driving from the right seat.

Some people can't imagine it, because they've not done it. I'd take a 200 hr pilot from a rigorous training program over a 1000 hr pilot who spent all his time teaching teenagers to land cessnas.
 
Sokes
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 6:43 pm

Are Indonesian/ Ethiopian pilots with few flight hours limited to fly MAXs only?
Does Indonesian Airlines/ Lion Air maintain their non-MAXs in developed nations?
Why can't the world be a little bit more autistic?
 
Heinkel
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 6:44 pm

MD80Ttail wrote:
Germanwings. If the FO had followed a path of building hours the same as done in the US his mental instability would have become apparent before crashing mainline plane.

Says who?

Dr. Freud? No mental instability will occur beyond 1.500 flight hours?
Last edited by Heinkel on Mon Mar 11, 2019 6:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
pintail21
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 6:48 pm

frmrCapCadet wrote:
Res eye witness being unreliable:

This is somewhat a linguistic problem. The denigration of eye witnesses is, to my mind totally inappropriate. Investigators are trained to interview eye witnesses and extract as accurately as possible what they actually saw, not their interpretation. If it was as impossible as people seem to suggest accident investigators would simply not bother and tell eye witnesses to shut up and get lost. Particularly when evidence is sparse and causes unknown every bit of data is of potential use. If one of us were to witness a serious plane crash (I have seen one) it is useful to immediately put into words (mentally) what you saw. You don't need to make sense of the data. Just confirm in your own mind what you saw immediately, and leave the interpretation to experts. I saw some phenomena as a child during an earthquake that didn't make sense. I always wondered why until decades later an earthquake scientist explained to me why I saw it like I did. We now have two eye witnesses on the ground, they have reported what they saw. Investigators will break down what they said into specific pieces of data, and determine what the meaning of what they reported. There is about a dozen data points. It is useful. It is not gospel.


Trained investigator here. Nobody is saying anything bad about eyewitnesses, it’s just that their memories aren’t reliable as you would think. The biggest thing is like you said investigators know to not take their accounts as gospel and use interview techniques to figure out what they know and to figure out what they misremembered. If a witness says they saw the plane on fire, you can talk to then and ask about the fire, if they actually saw flames or just smoke or just fuel, then go to the wreckage to find proof of a precrash fire to verify the testimony was accurate. Reporters don’t have that training, they put the quote on the page and run with it because they aren’t trained to deal with witness testimony, they’re reporting what witnesses said.
 
AviationBob
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 6:50 pm

MD80Ttail wrote:
9w748capt wrote:
Avgeek21 wrote:

Don't know this obsession with hours. Speaking from experience over in Europe I joined a renowned national flag carrier with 185:20hr TOTAL time. That's a CPL (IR+ME) and add to that your usual simulator hours both in training and typerating. I started linetraining with those 185:20hrs and was released on the line with 235 hrs TOTAL time. Never had any training issues, retakes or fails. Just because other parts of the world do it differently doesn't make one or the other better or worse. With the right training, attitude and company ethos it's a non issue in my opinion. I'm now left seat on a 737. Pretty common in Europe at least.


Good to know. I honestly had no idea if this that number of hours was a huge anomaly or not. I'll admit I'm rather unfamiliar even what the US requirements are hours-wise. And I have the utmost respect for ET - I very much doubt they would've put an unqualified FO in the cockpit of a real-life commercial flight.



Never said the FO wasn’t qualified. My argument is at 200hrs total time the FO cannot have enough experience to act as an equal to the Captain in any flight deck.


Totally agree! The US requires 1500 hours to sit in the right seat of a CRJ, I thought they inadvertently dropped off a zero when saying how much total time the FO had. 200 hours !?!? Are you kidding me?

I agree the 737 Max should be looked at with suspicion, but so should the low pilot standards in these developing countries since both crashes have that in common also. Its probably a combination of the two, strange behavior from the 737 Max combined with pilots not experienced, or well trained enough to know how to handle it properly.
 
rideforever
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 6:52 pm

If airlines/ manufacturers wish to fly with little pilot input then they need several more external sensors, when one fails there is comfortable redundancy.
If the pilots are in charge then they should more easily be able to disconnect a maximum of computer direction easily.
At the moment it seems financial pressures are pushing in the automation direction, but a lack of willingness to be open about it (for fear of frightening the pilots / passengers) ... is causing a confused picture, with several systems procedures priorities and mid-air realities colliding.
This is not a winning combination.
Of course I would not particularly like to see the day when the aircraft pilots and passengers are all robotic !
 
SkyGrunt
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 6:57 pm

MD80Ttail wrote:
I consider myself a very average pilot with average stick and rudder skills. I was probably at my sharpest when I flew the MU2 all night delivering checks back when people wrote checks. The point is though even when I was building hours trying to get hired at a major I had more than 200 hrs. My “first” job as a CFI I had more than 200hrs. Looking back then vs now there is no way at 200 hrs I could handle a major emergency. Could I now? I certainly have a lot more experience and knowledge now than I did many meany years ago at 200hrs. The company I worked for wouldn’t even hire comeone to fly checks at less than 1,000hrs.

I’d be willing to be if the average passenger knew how little experience some flight crews have they would be panicked. I have flown with plenty of 1500hr guys and gals so far behind the plane it scared me. I can’t imagine having 200 hrs and flying a mainline plane. I’m lucky I didn’t kill myself in the MU2 with 1,000hrs.
Dude the AC had 8,000. Yeah I get it that it's a two person job but the 200 hour guy is going to do what he / she is told, full stop so if they are running a checklist then they will do it. We all start somewhere and that's enough to not condemn the FO. I was right seating an A310 with not much more than that and I've been okay and now a Captain. Point is that we don't know jack about what happened here.

Now this is a broader point to the ANet community at large, but all we have is some website 'data' that's far from verified and a LOT of keyboard pilots. Everyone take a breath. As for grounding the MAX fleet I can see both arguments so I'm very conflicted on it. I think if the preliminary signs point to a major design flaw, Boeing will be compelled both ethically and legally to work with the various regulatory bodies to ground all MAX until it can be fixed / redesigned. I agree that if that's the case then it will be a big deal.

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Finn350
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 7:01 pm

The quality of this thread is deteriorating. While the FO experience probably is a factor in the crash, there are now tens of posts regarding that which don’t any longer contribute to the discussion. And there are other similar subject matters earlier in this thread with similar consequences.
Last edited by Finn350 on Mon Mar 11, 2019 7:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
Scorpio
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 7:01 pm

AviationBob wrote:
Totally agree! The US requires 1500 hours to sit in the right seat of a CRJ, I thought they inadvertently dropped off a zero when saying how much total time the FO had. 200 hours !?!? Are you kidding me?

Never leave North America, because this is standard practice pretty much everywhere outside North America. Even renowned airlines like Cathay Pacific hire pilots for the A330 or 777 fleets with fewer than 250 hours total time.
 
TTailedTiger
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 7:04 pm

SkyGrunt wrote:
MD80Ttail wrote:
I consider myself a very average pilot with average stick and rudder skills. I was probably at my sharpest when I flew the MU2 all night delivering checks back when people wrote checks. The point is though even when I was building hours trying to get hired at a major I had more than 200 hrs. My “first” job as a CFI I had more than 200hrs. Looking back then vs now there is no way at 200 hrs I could handle a major emergency. Could I now? I certainly have a lot more experience and knowledge now than I did many meany years ago at 200hrs. The company I worked for wouldn’t even hire comeone to fly checks at less than 1,000hrs.

I’d be willing to be if the average passenger knew how little experience some flight crews have they would be panicked. I have flown with plenty of 1500hr guys and gals so far behind the plane it scared me. I can’t imagine having 200 hrs and flying a mainline plane. I’m lucky I didn’t kill myself in the MU2 with 1,000hrs.
Dude the AC had 8,000. Yeah I get it that it's a two person job but the 200 hour guy is going to do what he / she is told, full stop so if they are running a checklist then they will do it. We all start somewhere and that's enough to not condemn the FO. I was right seating an A310 with not much more than that and I've been okay and now a Captain. Point is that we don't know jack about what happened here.

Now this is a broader point to the ANet community at large, but all we have is some website 'data' that's far from verified and a LOT of keyboard pilots. Everyone take a breath. As for grounding the MAX fleet I can see both arguments so I'm very conflicted on it. I think if the preliminary signs point to a major design flaw, Boeing will be compelled both ethically and legally to work with the various regulatory bodies to ground all MAX until it can be fixed / redesigned. I agree that if that's the case then it will be a big deal.

Sent from my BBD100-2 using Tapatalk


Going to do what he/she is told? That is quite scary that you think that is ok. That's not how it works in the US. If the FO thinks what the captain is doing is wrong then they are required to challenge it and take control if necessary. Here the FO is not a trainee or apprentice. They are a crew member that flys the plane just as much as the captain.
Last edited by TTailedTiger on Mon Mar 11, 2019 7:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
TheRacingElf
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 7:04 pm

achmafooma wrote:
From Reuters: "Half a dozen witnesses interviewed by Reuters in the farmland where the plane came down reported smoke billowing out behind, while four of them also described a loud sound. 'It was a loud rattling sound. Like straining and shaking metal,' said Turn Buzuna, a 26-year-old housewife and farmer who lives about 300 meters (328 yards) from the crash site."

Ethiopian plane smoked and shuddered before deadly plunge:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ethi ... SKBN1QS1LJ


Engine surge/compressor stall due to lack of airflow in a stall situation maybe?
 
ytz
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 7:05 pm

AviationBob wrote:
MD80Ttail wrote:
9w748capt wrote:

Good to know. I honestly had no idea if this that number of hours was a huge anomaly or not. I'll admit I'm rather unfamiliar even what the US requirements are hours-wise. And I have the utmost respect for ET - I very much doubt they would've put an unqualified FO in the cockpit of a real-life commercial flight.



Never said the FO wasn’t qualified. My argument is at 200hrs total time the FO cannot have enough experience to act as an equal to the Captain in any flight deck.


Totally agree! The US requires 1500 hours to sit in the right seat of a CRJ, I thought they inadvertently dropped off a zero when saying how much total time the FO had. 200 hours !?!? Are you kidding me?

I agree the 737 Max should be looked at with suspicion, but so should the low pilot standards in these developing countries since both crashes have that in common also. Its probably a combination of the two, strange behavior from the 737 Max combined with pilots not experienced, or well trained enough to know how to handle it properly.


Low time =/= low standards. If that's the criteria, you would be grounding most of the military pilots worldwide.

Those airline training programs that train those right seaters are closer to a military flying training program than a CPL course at your local flying club. The US insists on 1500 hr FOs because American carriers don't want to train pilots from scratch anymore. There's a big difference in 200 hrs from Lufthansa flying academy than say 200 hrs that got you your CPL in Joe's Flying Club.
Last edited by ytz on Mon Mar 11, 2019 7:06 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
trent768
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 7:07 pm

Sokes wrote:
Are Indonesian/ Ethiopian pilots with few flight hours limited to fly MAXs only?
Does Indonesian Airlines/ Lion Air maintain their non-MAXs in developed nations?

I think they have their own MRO facility and also sent their plane to Garuda Maintenence Facility (GMF). Fyi, KL also recently sent some of their A330 to GMF for maintenance, so did Oman Air. So yeah, GMF is credible.
 
TWA902fly
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 7:07 pm

I don't get this argument about the 1,500 hour rule in the US. Until it was passed (recently, 2013), the minimum in the US was 250 hours, with plenty of pilots getting hired right at that limit. And aviation in the US was still safe. It's almost like the people pointing out this rule have forgotten how recently this rule was implemented. The 1,500 hour rule itself was triggered by the Colgan Air crash... in which both Captain and FO had over 1,500 hours. Training in the US tends to be good, and its completely possible that ET's training program is also up to international standards - and pilots graduating from that program would have had the chance to fly in the US up until 6 years ago. I'm not arguing for a hypothetical that someone with 1,500 hours has a better chance of getting out of an emergency than someone with 250 hours - that is probably true - experience is important - I'm pointing out the hypocrisy of the argument that US aviation is the safest in the world, and is supposedly be attributed to this very recent 1,500 rule. It sounds more like aviation in the US is so safe because of good training (which up until recently was deemed good enough to grant an ATP license to someone with 250 hours) - and if this is true - if ET's training program is as good as it appears to be, it may very well be up to international standards (and US standards up to 6 years ago) (And I say this as a US Citizen).

'902
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 7:07 pm

Moose135 wrote:
MD80Ttail wrote:
Back on topic and perhaps a new thread should be made.....but no one with 200 hrs should be in the cockpit of any passenger plane with the name Boeing, Airbus, Bombardier(now Airbus) ect ect ect. That’s not safe. That’s not ok. The fact it’s done astounds me. It’s also one of the many reasons flying outside of the US is more dangerous overall including Europe.


And yet, the US Air Force will take someone off the street with no flight experience, put them through training, and sit them in the cockpit of a large, multi-engine cargo, tanker, or bomber aircraft - or even in a high performance, single-seat, fighter/attack aircraft, with only a couple of hundred hours experience. It's been a hundred years, but when I went through UPT with the Air Force, I graduated (rated pilot) with 185 hours flight time. Another 65 hours (half of that sitting in the jump seat watching the other co-pilot trainee) and I was a fully certified KC-135 copilot. Maybe I didn't belong there either...or maybe it's not about the hours, but the quality of the training.

Oh, and just wondering, how did Jacob van Zanten's 11K+ hours serve him in preventing the Tenerife disaster?


I know this thread has taken a pilot training curve, but I'd respectfully submit that American military pilot training cannot be compared to civil training. I don't think it's a fair or accurate comparison in the least when you contemplate how pilot training is conducted these days in civil aviation. A former colleague of mine, who was also a pilot with 25k+ hours and type rated in dozens or aircraft, also a former Navy pilot a jillion years ago, is a noted pilot training expert. He’s said that in the military, you have ONE way of doing things, you screen for certain regimented aptitudes in a way that a starting civil pilot just doesn’t have to endure. Moreover, when you factor in the differences in how CFIs train, teach, and prepare, and further factor in flight schools’ respective programs, AND further consider HOW people learn, you have a hodge podge of widely disparate training inputs.

The ab initio programs that are common in Europe seek to stratify these differences and, I’d say they do generally a darn fine job of it. I’d also say that there are cultural reasons for this as well (the maturation of CRM, particularly among Western carriers—the spate of earlier KE crashes, for instance, called into question the human factors involved in questioning authority and an open exchange on a flight deck), but generally speaking, experience is—and will always be—the best teacher.

Marvin Renslow, the captain of CO3407, had about 3,400 total hours but slipped through a system designed to weed out failure because it didn’t vigorously do what it was supposed to. And based on his demonstrated airmanship, you could have had a 200 hour pilot do that. YES, we need qualitative hours, yes, we should exploit quantitative factors as well. FAR117 was well intentioned, but is a regulatory band-aid to some deeper issues that lay in cultural, social, educational, regulatory, and pragmatic issues that all deal with pilot training.

We’ll know in time what happened with ET302, but as with every crash, they’re preventable and there are always great lessons to be learned to apply to the future.
 
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sergegva
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 7:10 pm

MD80Ttail wrote:
We do not know what caused the accident on the fatal flight but we do know MCAS can be disabled by following proper procedures for trim issues.

According to several messages posted on the topic dedicated to the Lion Air crash, including some written by (alleged) 737 and A320 pilots, there are significant differences between a runaway trim case and the behaviour of the MCAS when it comes into action. So much so that it is not at all obvious that a pilot would immediately activate the anti-runaway trim procedure in such a situation.
 
giopan1975
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 7:11 pm

MCAS obstructs an airman from trusting one of his basic instincts and perform pitch and thrust when unreliable speed indication is noted.
This is not normal.
Certifying a commercial airplane that works on unsuitable engines for its design is also not normal. It is also suspicious and also scary when a US manufacturer who are named Boeing are involved.
737max should all be scraped tommorow, not grounded. Scrapped.
And certifiers sued for bribery and homicide.
And this has nothing to do with the cause of this accident.
 
SkyGrunt
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 7:12 pm

TTailedTiger wrote:
SkyGrunt wrote:
MD80Ttail wrote:
I consider myself a very average pilot with average stick and rudder skills. I was probably at my sharpest when I flew the MU2 all night delivering checks back when people wrote checks. The point is though even when I was building hours trying to get hired at a major I had more than 200 hrs. My “first” job as a CFI I had more than 200hrs. Looking back then vs now there is no way at 200 hrs I could handle a major emergency. Could I now? I certainly have a lot more experience and knowledge now than I did many meany years ago at 200hrs. The company I worked for wouldn’t even hire comeone to fly checks at less than 1,000hrs.

I’d be willing to be if the average passenger knew how little experience some flight crews have they would be panicked. I have flown with plenty of 1500hr guys and gals so far behind the plane it scared me. I can’t imagine having 200 hrs and flying a mainline plane. I’m lucky I didn’t kill myself in the MU2 with 1,000hrs.
Dude the AC had 8,000. Yeah I get it that it's a two person job but the 200 hour guy is going to do what he / she is told, full stop so if they are running a checklist then they will do it. We all start somewhere and that's enough to not condemn the FO. I was right seating an A310 with not much more than that and I've been okay and now a Captain. Point is that we don't know jack about what happened here.

Now this is a broader point to the ANet community at large, but all we have is some website 'data' that's far from verified and a LOT of keyboard pilots. Everyone take a breath. As for grounding the MAX fleet I can see both arguments so I'm very conflicted on it. I think if the preliminary signs point to a major design flaw, Boeing will be compelled both ethically and legally to work with the various regulatory bodies to ground all MAX until it can be fixed / redesigned. I agree that if that's the case then it will be a big deal.

Sent from my BBD100-2 using Tapatalk


Going to do what he/she is told? That is quite scary that you think that is ok. That's not how it works in the US. If the FO thinks what the captain is doing is wrong then they are required to challenge it and take control if necessary. Here the FO is not a trainee or apprentice. They are a crew member that flys the plane just as much as the captain.


Perhaps I was unclear, yes the FO will fly and have input. Yes, it's a crew and they should work together but in the end the PIC makes the final call (barring anything completely unsafe of course). Point is that if the Captain wants the FO to run the checklist or take control while he / she runs it, after the initial actions, that is their prerogative.

My larger point was that a blanket statement that a 200 hour pilot is incapable of being a FO is not true.

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Last edited by SkyGrunt on Mon Mar 11, 2019 7:12 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
MD80Ttail
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 7:12 pm

“”Dude the AC had 8,000. Yeah I get it that it's a two person job but the 200 hour guy is going to do what he / she is told, full stop””

You sir or madame have just proved my point. At 200hrs he’s going to do what he’s told by the 8,000hr pilot. Like a trained animal in a circus act. That’s NOT how the US system works and IMO not how any commercial aviation system should work. It’s all about CRM and the two people up front being equals when solving problems. No one should ever be put in or create a cockpit environment where one pilot is telling the other what to do. One pilot should not be put in the roll of only doing as told. Both are a recipe for disaster and it’s been proven time and time again. I’m glad at 200hrs you were fine in the right seat on an A310. When I had 200 hrs I would have told you I was competent enough to be in the right seat of a mainline plane too. Now with some experience behind me...a lot actually....it would scare the crud out of me to sit in the right seat of anything hauling pax at 200 hrs. I’m close to retirement but not so old to understand the value of CRM at 150-200hrs total time a FO cannot be an equal and productive member of the flight deck team. He or she is a trained circus animal. I’m willing to admit at 200hrs some FOs might have every failure mode and check list commited to memory and that’s great. Still doesn’t mean they are proficient and ready to be at the controls of a mainline pax aircraft. The fact you say well they have an 8k hour guy with them blows my mind. People die. Stroke out. Become incapacitated. To me following that argument makes me say let’s just go to single pilot planes and maybe train a flight attendant with some basic flying skills Incase the captain goes tango uniform.
 
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Mortyman
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 7:13 pm

zkojq wrote:
lowbank wrote:
For all those people talking of engine failure. Three examples of double engine loss spring to mind.

A330 which ran out of fuel at 33,000 feet and glided to land in the Azores. Few elements of luck meant they were close enough.
777 fuel lines iced up on approach to Heathrow, landed short of the runway.
Miracle of the Hudson,

Even with no engines all these planes could be controlled by the pilots.

I don’t get the feeling from initial reports it’s an engine issue.

:checkmark: Whilst a double flameout/failure is incredibly unlikely, even if it does happen, the flight crew will be able to take control and make a forced landing somewhere. Looking at the photos of the wreckage, the crash site seems to be reasonably flat, so I would expect that the flight crew would have been able to pull of a reasonably successful forced landing. I'm sure that there would be fatalities, but we would be talking about something comparable to the TK737 that crashed in AMS a few years ago, not a catastrophic accident where noone survives and the aircraft is destroyed beyond recognition.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turkish_A ... light_1951

sandyb123 wrote:
If (and it is an if at this stage) EASA decides to ground the Boeing 737 MAX aircraft then this will be a tough gig for Norwegian. I have noted a number of public concerns posted to Norwegian over the weekend about the MAX aircraft. They only have 8 in service, but given their already tough trading it could hit their operations and financials hard if they have to ground 15% of their short haul fleet.


Don't they still have one stuck on the ground in Iran awaiting parts after an engine failure?



No, that one was flown home on 26th of February and is back in service.
 
TTailedTiger
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 7:16 pm

MD80Ttail wrote:
“”Dude the AC had 8,000. Yeah I get it that it's a two person job but the 200 hour guy is going to do what he / she is told, full stop””

You sir or madame have just proved my point. At 200hrs he’s going to do what he’s told by the 8,000hr pilot. Like a trained animal in a circus act. That’s NOT how the US system works and IMO not how any commercial aviation system should work. It’s all about CRM and the two people up front being equals when solving problems. No one should ever be put in or create a cockpit environment where one pilot is telling the other what to do. One pilot should not be put in the roll of only doing as told. Both are a recipe for disaster and it’s been proven time and time again. I’m glad at 200hrs you were fine in the right seat on an A310. When I had 200 hrs I would have told you I was competent enough to be in the right seat of a mainline plane too. Now with some experience behind me...a lot actually....it would scare the crud out of me to sit in the right seat of anything hauling pax at 200 hrs. I’m close to retirement but not so old to understand the value of CRM at 150-200hrs total time a FO cannot be an equal and productive member of the flight deck team. He or she is a trained circus animal. I’m willing to admit at 200hrs some FOs might have every failure mode and check list commited to memory and that’s great. Still doesn’t mean they are proficient and ready to be at the controls of a mainline pax aircraft. The fact you say well they have an 8k hour guy with them blows my mind. People die. Stroke out. Become incapacitated. To me following that argument makes me say let’s just go to single pilot planes and maybe train a flight attendant with some basic flying skills Incase the captain goes tango uniform.


Exactly. Well said. :checkmark:
 
bob75013
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 7:19 pm

Jouhou wrote:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ethiopia-airplane/after-ethiopia-crash-horror-some-nations-ground-boeing-737-max-8s-idUSKBN1QS15F

If the witness account is accurate, it wasn't an mcas issue. Of course those frequently aren't but it does seem to match the combination of scattered goods and scorched parts (although that might just be from crashing on dry land)



GARA-BOKKA, Ethiopia (Reuters) - The Ethiopian Airlines plane that crashed killing 157 people was making a strange rattling noise and trailed smoke and debris as it swerved above a field of panicked cows before hitting earth, according to witnesses."

If true there should be debris along the flight path -- no? Any reports of it?

"
 
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 7:20 pm

SheikhDjibouti wrote:
OA412 wrote:
Eyewitnesses are notoriously unreliable, not just in aircraft investigation, but also with respect to violent crime. It makes sense. Watching an aircraft fall out of the sky or watching a person get shot are stress inducing experiences. Your not going to be thinking entirely rationally, no matter how hard you try. Your brain will necessarily fill in gaps, or you'll simply remember things that never actually happened. In fact, there's a name for it, the Mandela Effect (also sometimes referred to as alternate realities). It's not that alternate realities actually exist, but that our memories just aren't as good as we think they are. Sometimes we remember things that never actually happened, like believing a famous person who is still alive (i.e. Mandela), died many years ago.

Mea culpa - I'm just as guilty of that myself, like for instance even today I have this crazy idea that Nelson Mandela died on 5th December 2013.

I'm sorry - I've never been able to resist an open goal. :lol:

Oh dear lord! Touche!
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YoungDon
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 7:25 pm

TWA902fly wrote:
I don't get this argument about the 1,500 hour rule in the US. Until it was passed (recently, 2013), the minimum in the US was 250 hours, with plenty of pilots getting hired right at that limit. And aviation in the US was still safe. It's almost like the people pointing out this rule have forgotten how recently this rule was implemented. The 1,500 hour rule itself was triggered by the Colgan Air crash... in which both Captain and FO had over 1,500 hours. Training in the US tends to be good, and its completely possible that ET's training program is also up to international standards - and pilots graduating from that program would have had the chance to fly in the US up until 6 years ago. I'm not arguing for a hypothetical that someone with 1,500 hours has a better chance of getting out of an emergency than someone with 250 hours - that is probably true - experience is important - I'm pointing out the hypocrisy of the argument that US aviation is the safest in the world, and is supposedly be attributed to this very recent 1,500 rule. It sounds more like aviation in the US is so safe because of good training (which up until recently was deemed good enough to grant an ATP license to someone with 250 hours) - and if this is true - if ET's training program is as good as it appears to be, it may very well be up to international standards (and US standards up to 6 years ago) (And I say this as a US Citizen).

'902


Preach. Many pilots, including myself, were hired right around 250 hours before Colgan 3407 and the change to FOs being required to hold an ATP. Hours aren't the end-all, be all of pilot training any more than driving experience inherently makes you a good driver. Plenty of good drivers with little experience (though I'd argue, not as many in the past due to the fact that many young people do not want to drive), and plenty of bad ones with a ton of experience. It's a mix of the aptitude and skill of the person, the quality of the training, and the pilot's experience that affects safety. Focusing too much on one of those factors while ignoring the others indicates a lack of exposure to other training regimes worldwide, as well as bias as far as why some pilots are better than others.

There is more than one way to train pilots and the US does pilot training based on historical precedent more than any other reason - basically hours have always been seen as the primary factor in pilot proficiency here. However, I doubt any real statistical analysis has been done that actually proves that a high-hour pilot generally performs better than an intensively trained low-hour one. Even if that was proven it ignores all other factors causing differences in pilot skill levels.
 
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 7:28 pm

While I do agree that eyewitnesses can be unreliable I personally find these eyewitnesses to be more credible than most. They live within a flight path and know full well the normal operations of aircraft, within that context. Reading their descriptions I find them to be credible. Even more so from the fact that there are several eye witnesses with similar statements. (I will allow that they could have had confirmation bias while talking with each other in the aftermath of the crash and prior to questioning.) Two witnesses stated clothing, paper and other debris was departing the aircraft prior to the crash. That should be something easily verifiable by investigators and would be a very important clue to what happened.

Also keep in mind that this is one of the hot and high airports - not easy on the engines.
 
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 7:29 pm

TheRacingElf wrote:
achmafooma wrote:
From Reuters: "Half a dozen witnesses interviewed by Reuters in the farmland where the plane came down reported smoke billowing out behind, while four of them also described a loud sound. 'It was a loud rattling sound. Like straining and shaking metal,' said Turn Buzuna, a 26-year-old housewife and farmer who lives about 300 meters (328 yards) from the crash site."

Ethiopian plane smoked and shuddered before deadly plunge:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ethi ... SKBN1QS1LJ


Engine surge/compressor stall due to lack of airflow in a stall situation maybe?

Basic thing while investigating accidents or crimes; eye witnesses are highly unreliable. Nothing can be said till there is forensic evidence in the hands of investigators.
 
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 7:32 pm

747megatop wrote:
TheRacingElf wrote:
achmafooma wrote:
From Reuters: "Half a dozen witnesses interviewed by Reuters in the farmland where the plane came down reported smoke billowing out behind, while four of them also described a loud sound. 'It was a loud rattling sound. Like straining and shaking metal,' said Turn Buzuna, a 26-year-old housewife and farmer who lives about 300 meters (328 yards) from the crash site."

Ethiopian plane smoked and shuddered before deadly plunge:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ethi ... SKBN1QS1LJ


Engine surge/compressor stall due to lack of airflow in a stall situation maybe?

Basic thing while investigating accidents or crimes; eye witnesses are highly unreliable. Nothing can be said till there is forensic evidence in the hands of investigators.


very well said, perfect.
 
Luftkof37
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 7:34 pm

As experience is almost always a major factor in any mishap, souls lost or not, imagine what will be at issue when they start using non-humans in the cockpit. Look at Sioux City and The Hudson... can they program those skills into a computer?
It is coming whether we like it or not as money runs all.
 
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 7:34 pm

giopan1975 wrote:
MCAS obstructs an airman from trusting one of his basic instincts and perform pitch and thrust when unreliable speed indication is noted.
This is not normal.
Certifying a commercial airplane that works on unsuitable engines for its design is also not normal. It is also suspicious and also scary when a US manufacturer who are named Boeing are involved.
737max should all be scraped tommorow, not grounded. Scrapped.
And certifiers sued for bribery and homicide.
And this has nothing to do with the cause of this accident.


Well, this could be a tragic by-product of trying to upgrade a warmed-over 50 year old airframe instead of having designed a new clean sheet airplane. WN drove the train on the NG from the start--Boeing should have taken that singular opportunity to thank them but tell them that their fleet commonality wasn't going to dictate much necessary airframe improvements for the 737. So then you have Frankenstein at work, with the 737-900ER, and then the MAX with shoehorning a significantly different engine on it and having to programatically compensate for aerodynamic compromise. Separate rant altogether about how Boeing's desire to placate a major customer in WN actually hurt them in the long run. And we may--*may*--be seeing the ultimate price for that now, which would be tragic.

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