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trpmb6
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 8:50 pm

randomdude83 wrote:
Could a wonderful member of this form recap for the rest of us that don’t want to read through the speculation posts just the facts so far that’s Been officially released on this incident. We really appreciate it!


CVR and FDR have both been recovered.

Some international authorities have grounded Max 8s the FAA has just issued a continued airworthiness notice.

FR24 data stops short of the final crash site because they have limited coverage in the area.

It does appear the crew had initiated some sort of maneuver to return to airport.

Several eyewitnesses came forward. Some described white smoke. Others described seeing paper and clothing departing aircraft.

The aircraft appears to have never gained more than 1000 feet in altitude from origin - but this is based on very limited data.
 
MKIAZ
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 8:51 pm

ikramerica wrote:
Does it make sense for ET to temporarily ground the Max? Yes. They are wise to examine all aspects of their operation to understand what happened.

Is it wise for Cayman? Who knows, probably not. But they only have 2.

Is it wise for China? No. Its pretty obviously political during trade negotiations that have gone sour. If China were actually concerned about safety they would wait to find out more about the ET accident, then decide. They made their decision before they could possibly know anything.


I tend to see it the other way. It could definitely be political - but so could the lack of a grounding from the FAA.

The point of a grounding is that hey something's not right, we're going to ground the fleet WHILE we find out what is wrong, not let it keep flying and hope we don't have any more crashes while we try to figure out what is going on.

While I'm willing to concede that China may have some political motivations for the grounding, I think their approach of being cautious is warranted given the facts we know today.
 
Trin
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 8:54 pm

randomdude83 wrote:
Could a wonderful member of this form recap for the rest of us that don’t want to read through the speculation posts just the facts so far that’s Been officially released on this incident. We really appreciate it!


Very few facts available so far. The jet crashed about ~8 mins after takeoff. There were no survivors. FR24 data is sparse and doesn't continue until the termination of the flight due to their radar network being geographically limited in the area of the incident. Between page 1-12 of this thread, some folks did post some rudimentary graphing of what FR24 data was available (and it DID *seem* to show discrepancies in vertical speed swinging from +2,000FPM to -2,000FPM), but again the data is sparse and does not continue through the last few minutes of flight.

There were some rumors that the flight had reported unreliable airspeed, and that they had declared an emergency/requested return to airport, but to the best of my knowledge these are more rumor than fact.

Eyewitnesses at the scene of the crash have reported things such as the plane flying low and trailing smoke and debris before crashing, but many also believe that the smoke and debris people saw happened AFTER impact with the ground. There is a very large and deep crater at the scene of the crash and - save for the mangled engines - there are VERY few pieces of large wreckage. Most of the airframe was fragmented into small debris from the power of the impact.

The FDR and CVR have been recovered and are en route to a facility. The FAA and NTSB are on scene currently. I believe Boeing's team will arrive there tomorrow (Tues) - which given time zone differences could be overnight Monday night in the US timezones.

Trin
 
IADCA
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 8:56 pm

trpmb6 wrote:

Actually we kind of do know that they tried to turn. Look at this picture from the previous page. The guardian's website has it labeled. The top left dot is origin, top right is the last radar ping. Bottom dot is the location of crash site.


We know that they turned. We don't know that they "tried" to turn. When there are so many possible scenarios in play, the difference there could be important.

ikramerica wrote:
IADCA wrote:
KarlB737 wrote:

I believe that one point has been over looked here. 350 of the 737-8 MAX have been put into service. 348 are still flying OK as of today.


The MAX has been in service well under 2 years, and most of the 350 frames have done much less than that. Even if you use the mathematical fiction that all 350 had been flying for 2 full years, you're talking about a loss rate of almost .6% of the active fleet in 2 years, or almost .3% per year. Might not sound like much until you realize that an equivalent rate would be 4.5 hull losses per year for the 777 or approximately 20 hull losses every single year for the 737NG. And again, that's actually a gross underestimation of the loss rate so far, so that "348 out of 350 are still flying ok" is not a comforting statistic. It might end up being meaningless as the frame might not have been at all at fault here, but that's not a number that helps me sleep: quite the opposite, actually.

2 is not a significant enough number out of 350 to manufacture such a trend line or extrapolate anything with such a high degree of certainty to apply it to another type.

For all we know, there could be 0 hull losses in the next 10 years, with 3000 in service by then and a hull loss rate of 0.01% per year.

Does it make sense for ET to temporarily ground the Max? Yes. They are wise to examine all aspects of their operation to understand what happened.

Is it wise for Cayman? Who knows, probably not. But they only have 2.

Is it wise for China? No. Its pretty obviously political during trade negotiations that have gone sour. If China were actually concerned about safety they would wait to find out more about the ET accident, then decide. They made their decision before they could possibly know anything.


Oh, absolutely 2 is not enough to extrapolate from confidently to ground an aircraft based solely on that fact. I was just pointing out that 2/350 is not a low rate - for whatever that is worth - in contrast to what the poster I was responding to seemed to believe. It could be that the ET crash had zero to do with the plane being a MAX, but until we know more I doubt the "oh, there are 348 still flying" is going to give much comfort in the other direction.
 
GalaxyFlyer
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 8:59 pm

michi wrote:
the captain starts flying solo and becomes an instructor


Good CRM should prevent that from happening.


CRM requires resources, what resources does a 200 hour pilot offer? Little experience beyond blind compliance and whatever was passed on in simulated emergencies. Can you give the hand flying of a damaged plane to the 200-hour pilot? Can you let him run QRH procedures without monitoring the actions taken while hand flying the plane. Would you trust a 200-hour pilot to land in CAT I mins without autopilot and the captain dead?

GF
 
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BobleBrave
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 9:02 pm

ClubCX wrote:
ikramerica wrote:
Is it wise for China? No. Its pretty obviously political during trade negotiations that have gone sour. If China were actually concerned about safety they would wait to find out more about the ET accident, then decide. They made their decision before they could possibly know anything.

China has just produced its own competitor to the 737 MAX and is using this as an opportunity to promote it and frame the American plane as inferior.


You dont know that for a fact, by that logic, chinese government could easily say : "only american and american submissive countries do not want to ground the MAX".
You dont know what happened and why that plane carshed : fact
It is reasonable to ground a plane that might have an important flaw until you know for sure : fact
The absence of economic and symbolic blowback for the Chinese gov might have helped in this decision but thats all you can assume for now, the rest is just mere (american) speculation.
Bob le Brave
 
Curiousflyer
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 9:04 pm

BaconButty wrote:
oschkosch wrote:
FAA has announced they will issue a CANIC for the Max.....Sounds fishy to me!


https://mobile.twitter.com/FAANews/stat ... 3244750849

Gesendet von meinem SM-G950F mit Tapatalk

They should issue a Precautionary Air Notice for the International Community.


Brilliant. I am a bit into this mode!
 
Ciurlionis
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 9:06 pm

Only a speculation or just a question, but could it be that too early retracted flaps cod be a reason for 737 MAX accidents?

MCAS kicks in immediately as soon as flaps are retracted in flight.
 
RJWNL
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 9:09 pm

trpmb6 wrote:
Actually we kind of do know that they tried to turn. Look at this picture from the previous page. The guardian's website has it labeled. The top left dot is origin, top right is the last radar ping. Bottom dot is the location of crash site.

The location of the crash site as previously given by The Guardian and other media is not correct. This should be 8°52'38.04"N 39°15'4.28"E as determined by michi a few pages back. Not exactly an immediate turn back but there's a 10000 ft peak in the middle of it all and other terrain which might have made a turn back a bit more complicated?
 
airtechy
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 9:09 pm

There were two Youtube videos that went into great detail about the training that Easyjet pilots got that qualified them as FO's on A320's at 200 hours...starting from 0 hours. I think they were pulled for copyright issues, but may be on the web somewhere.

Not everyone made it through the training, but for those that did Easyjet can be sure they were all trained the same way and according to their procedures. Seems to me that is a better way than hiring pilots with 1,500 hours that you have only have hours to go by. Also, the left seat guys got there through the same training ... just now with more time ... so their CRM should be fine with the low time guys.
 
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CitizenJustin
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 9:11 pm

Now we have people calling for the entire MAX fleet to be scrapped. Surely comments like this indicate some sort of bias. I wonder what these people will say if it turns out pilot error is the cause?
 
washingtonflyer
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 9:17 pm

Do we know the orientation of the crash based on photos or people's datamining the crash photos and maps? In other words given the lack of FR24 data, can we state if the plane was headed west or northwest or east? With the crash site pinpointed in post #1171, do we assume the plane - at some point, made a 180 turn towards ADD and that is where it went down?


Theoretical track....

Image
 
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casinterest
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 9:20 pm

trpmb6 wrote:
casinterest wrote:
trpmb6 wrote:
Everything about this flight seems fishy to me. Hot and high airport. Trouble to climb out. Doubt they would have retracted flaps if they were having trouble climbing so it doesn't seem like an MCAS issue. High speed impact so they should have had enough speed to climb out. None of this makes sense.


Hot would not be the description I would use for Addis Ababa. They are currently running 50-70 F. High , yes. 7600 feet up.

It is a confusing issue, but as we have seen in many crashes it make sense once all the data comes in. Waiting for that data will take time.


Addis Ababa is one of the quintessential Hot and High Airports.


I get what you are saying, but to me it is an or operation not an and. That is the engineer side. I agree it makes the list.
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
Etheereal
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 9:21 pm

BaconButty wrote:
oschkosch wrote:
FAA has announced they will issue a CANIC for the Max.....Sounds fishy to me!


https://mobile.twitter.com/FAANews/stat ... 3244750849

Gesendet von meinem SM-G950F mit Tapatalk

They should issue a Precautionary Air Notice for the International Community.

Caution: The Boeing 737-3M8 will crash (like any other aircraft).

Is that what you mean by caution?
 
uta999
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 9:23 pm

Could the co-pilot who was very new on type, have retracted the flaps instead of selecting gear up?

The fact that the aircraft appears to have remained within 1000’ of the ground, could mean there were no flaps during the critical climb out.

Something similar to the BEA Trident crash at Staines, near LHR. The captain failed to notice because he was having a heart attack.
Your computer just got better
 
cpd
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 9:26 pm

BaconButty wrote:
oschkosch wrote:
FAA has announced they will issue a CANIC for the Max.....Sounds fishy to me!


https://mobile.twitter.com/FAANews/stat ... 3244750849

Gesendet von meinem SM-G950F mit Tapatalk

They should issue a Precautionary Air Notice for the International Community.


Isn't it a bit premature for the FAA to be issuing any statements or directives when the facts of this incident are not known? Talk about jumping to conclusions.

Some of the witness reports suggest an explosion - but we can't really say one way or the other. The only way for all the operators at the moment is to proceed with caution.
 
Etheereal
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 9:26 pm

CitizenJustin wrote:
Now we have people calling for the entire MAX fleet to be scrapped. Surely comments like this indicate some sort of bias. I wonder what these people will say if it turns out pilot error is the cause?

They'll still find something so they can twist the facts so their headcannon still applies.
 
Boeingphan
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 9:28 pm

I've read all 26 pages but I recall a post earlier, and I'm not about to look it back up cause my head is spinning, but some pilots were concerned with the compressor stalls in the Max. I believe I read that they were concerned with the surging and voraciousness of the stalls. I'm wondering if this is a part of the issue. You have reduced power from the stall, you'd have the smoke/flames coming out the back, you'd have the shaking and what not from the engine surging. Just trying to piece something else together.
 
Etheereal
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 9:35 pm

Boeingphan wrote:
I've read all 26 pages but I recall a post earlier, and I'm not about to look it back up cause my head is spinning, but some pilots were concerned with the compressor stalls in the Max. I believe I read that they were concerned with the surging and voraciousness of the stalls. I'm wondering if this is a part of the issue. You have reduced power from the stall, you'd have the smoke/flames coming out the back, you'd have the shaking and what not from the engine surging. Just trying to piece something else together.

Im not sure if i understand, but not all stall(s) are caused by low power; high AoA (meaning lower lift and increased drag) also can come to play.
 
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trpmb6
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 9:37 pm

RJWNL wrote:
trpmb6 wrote:
Actually we kind of do know that they tried to turn. Look at this picture from the previous page. The guardian's website has it labeled. The top left dot is origin, top right is the last radar ping. Bottom dot is the location of crash site.

The location of the crash site as previously given by The Guardian and other media is not correct. This should be 8°52'38.04"N 39°15'4.28"E as determined by michi a few pages back. Not exactly an immediate turn back but there's a 10000 ft peak in the middle of it all and other terrain which might have made a turn back a bit more complicated?



Hmm... Yes.. I agree. I plotted the coordinates and it looks like it's pretty much a straight line with the FR24 data. Except this is the weird part... It seems to me the debris field and subsequent crater indicate a northward impact.
 
ikramerica
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 9:38 pm

ClubCX wrote:
ikramerica wrote:
Is it wise for China? No. Its pretty obviously political during trade negotiations that have gone sour. If China were actually concerned about safety they would wait to find out more about the ET accident, then decide. They made their decision before they could possibly know anything.

China has just produced its own competitor to the 737 MAX and is using this as an opportunity to promote it and frame the American plane as inferior.

Not to get too much OT, but after Trump walked out on Kim, Xi canceled his meeting with Trump, and Trump made greater demands on Kim. Tariff negotiations also broke down.

Grounding the Max and preventing more deliveries would be a way of hurting the trade deficit further.

And China was hoping that other major countries would follow suit. May even be pressuring belt and road partners to ground the Max.

But its all about safety...
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
IADCA
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 9:44 pm

Etheereal wrote:
Boeingphan wrote:
I've read all 26 pages but I recall a post earlier, and I'm not about to look it back up cause my head is spinning, but some pilots were concerned with the compressor stalls in the Max. I believe I read that they were concerned with the surging and voraciousness of the stalls. I'm wondering if this is a part of the issue. You have reduced power from the stall, you'd have the smoke/flames coming out the back, you'd have the shaking and what not from the engine surging. Just trying to piece something else together.

Im not sure if i understand, but not all stall(s) are caused by low power; high AoA (meaning lower lift and increased drag) also can come to play.


Compressor stalls are engine stalls, not airframe stalls. Messed-up engines don't produce the same thrust.
 
edu2703
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 9:48 pm

GOL Airlines decides for grouding its MAX 8 fleet. Just hours after releasing a statement saying they wouldn't ground any MAX 8 aircraft. A new statement will be released shortly.
Last edited by edu2703 on Mon Mar 11, 2019 9:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
ikramerica
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 9:48 pm

cpd wrote:
BaconButty wrote:
oschkosch wrote:
FAA has announced they will issue a CANIC for the Max.....Sounds fishy to me!


https://mobile.twitter.com/FAANews/stat ... 3244750849

Gesendet von meinem SM-G950F mit Tapatalk

They should issue a Precautionary Air Notice for the International Community.


Isn't it a bit premature for the FAA to be issuing any statements or directives when the facts of this incident are not known? Talk about jumping to conclusions.

Some of the witness reports suggest an explosion - but we can't really say one way or the other. The only way for all the operators at the moment is to proceed with caution.

We honestly don’t know. There could be an uncontained engine failure that cause wing damage during a crucial climb stage that was unrecoverable. That’s of course if the “explosion” aspect isnt just bad witness reports.

Defect in the LEAP? Ground the NEO too? We dont know anything.

Then of course there is terrorism as an option.
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
mxaxai
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 9:50 pm

uta999 wrote:
Could the co-pilot who was very new on type, have retracted the flaps instead of selecting gear up?

The fact that the aircraft appears to have remained within 1000’ of the ground, could mean there were no flaps during the critical climb out.

Something similar to the BEA Trident crash at Staines, near LHR. The captain failed to notice because he was having a heart attack.

That is certainly possible.

However, it is very unlikely.

The reported ground speed quickly reaches over 250 knots and goes up to ~380 knots. Even accounting for altitude and wind, the 737 is able to fly at such speeds without flaps. In fact, at such speeds the flaps should be retracted.
 
Elshad
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 9:51 pm

uta999 wrote:
Could the co-pilot who was very new on type, have retracted the flaps instead of selecting gear up?

The fact that the aircraft appears to have remained within 1000’ of the ground, could mean there were no flaps during the critical climb out.

Something similar to the BEA Trident crash at Staines, near LHR. The captain failed to notice because he was having a heart attack.


Hmm, the gear lever located in the centre on the MAX compared to off-centre towards the right on the NG, so it would actually seem less likely on the MAX in terms of proximity to the flap lever on the right of the throttle quadrant.
 
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anfromme
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 9:53 pm

MD80Ttail wrote:
JT prefers to take theirs off-roading and swimming. They are a dumpster fire of an airline on so many levels.

Eu hrs haven’t change and neither has their accident rates. Whereas the US has a perfect record the last decade.


And yet you have failed to point out a single instance of a EU-registered plane crashing where the FO's hours were even a contributing, not to mention directly causing, factor.
Of note: Even in the US before the regulation change you'll be hard-pressed to find an instance where FO's hours were a factor. As has been pointed out, none of the pilots in the Colgan crash that prompted regulation changes had below the new minium of 1,500 hours of flying experience.

Also, of course we all know about JT904, and we all know Lion Air was on the EU's blacklist the for the better part of a decade.
And again: You do NOT see brand-new planes in short succession driven into the ground/sea in clear weather. That's a completely different story to JT904. It's also a different story to ET409.
It's just not something that happens any more anywhere in the world, regardless of the different levels of training.

On a side note: Funny what aspects of a rather lengthy post of mine you choose to reply to.
42
 
many321
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 10:00 pm

Etheereal wrote:
Funny part of that is that AA is so out of touch with their own OPS, they dont even know what planes they fly at all. AA does NOT fly the 3M9 but the 8 instead, specially to Quito. Im not sure if UA flies the max9,


UA does fly the MAX9 they use it for domestic routes, and just recently started short International OPS to SAL. I was about to book a flight, and looking forward to fly the MAX9, though after this. I know I'll be call a wuss, until the main reason for both crashes are found, I'm not risking my or my elderly mother's life.
Last edited by many321 on Mon Mar 11, 2019 10:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
Mortyman
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 10:00 pm

Pluto707 wrote:
This never ending quest for cheaper flying just became lethal...


What is that supposed to mean ? ET is a full service carrier.
 
Blotto
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 10:03 pm

washingtonflyer wrote:
Do we know the orientation of the crash based on photos or people's datamining the crash photos and maps? In other words given the lack of FR24 data, can we state if the plane was headed west or northwest or east? With the crash site pinpointed in post #1171, do we assume the plane - at some point, made a 180 turn towards ADD and that is where it went down?


Theoretical track....

Image


For what we know so far, that map is wrong. Crash site most likely is a few miles east of the big mountain in the middle of the map
 
IADCA
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 10:08 pm

Blotto wrote:
washingtonflyer wrote:
Do we know the orientation of the crash based on photos or people's datamining the crash photos and maps? In other words given the lack of FR24 data, can we state if the plane was headed west or northwest or east? With the crash site pinpointed in post #1171, do we assume the plane - at some point, made a 180 turn towards ADD and that is where it went down?


For what we know so far, that map is wrong. Crash site most likely is a few miles east of the big mountain in the middle of the map


That's true (media reports put it near Ejere), but it doesn't markedly change the way the track works. It'd just be a tighter turn than shown on the image.
 
UALWN
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 10:09 pm

MD80Ttail wrote:
Eu hrs haven’t change and neither has their accident rates. Whereas the US has a perfect record the last decade.

Perfect record in the US in the last decade? I can recall at least five accidents in the last 10 years: FedEx (Tokyo), AA (Jamaica), DL (LGA), and, very recently, WN (PHL) and Atlas Air (IAH)...
AT7/111/146/Avro/CRJ/CR9/EMB/ERJ/E75/F50/100/L15/DC9/D10/M8X/717/727/737/747/757/767/777/787/AB6/310/32X/330/340/350/380
 
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Francoflier
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 10:10 pm

ikramerica wrote:
ClubCX wrote:
ikramerica wrote:
Is it wise for China? No. Its pretty obviously political during trade negotiations that have gone sour. If China were actually concerned about safety they would wait to find out more about the ET accident, then decide. They made their decision before they could possibly know anything.

China has just produced its own competitor to the 737 MAX and is using this as an opportunity to promote it and frame the American plane as inferior.

Not to get too much OT, but after Trump walked out on Kim, Xi canceled his meeting with Trump, and Trump made greater demands on Kim. Tariff negotiations also broke down.

Grounding the Max and preventing more deliveries would be a way of hurting the trade deficit further.

And China was hoping that other major countries would follow suit. May even be pressuring belt and road partners to ground the Max.

But its all about safety...


Please stop making up your own reality just because you can't live with the idea that maybe, possibly, there might be something wrong with the airplane and that Boeing unwillingly screwed the pooch... perhaps.

Unfortunately, that possibility is very much there, and China has decided to guard against it. Others may decide differently, but I can bet you there isn't a single aviation authority out there not at least considering it.

The safest course of action is to avoid risk until it is at least identified, quantified and addressed. If Boeing and the Max are cleared, then at worst all it's cost is delays, a bit of lost revenue and some frustrated passengers.

Quit pretending there isn't a potential issue for the sake of defending a corporation, especially in the wake of so many deaths. Surely, your pride can't hurt as much as the sorrow of those who lost loved ones for no good reason.
I'll do my own airline. With Blackjack. And hookers. In fact, forget the airline.
 
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FredrikHAD
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 10:18 pm

trpmb6 wrote:
RJWNL wrote:
trpmb6 wrote:
Actually we kind of do know that they tried to turn. Look at this picture from the previous page. The guardian's website has it labeled. The top left dot is origin, top right is the last radar ping. Bottom dot is the location of crash site.

The location of the crash site as previously given by The Guardian and other media is not correct. This should be 8°52'38.04"N 39°15'4.28"E as determined by michi a few pages back. Not exactly an immediate turn back but there's a 10000 ft peak in the middle of it all and other terrain which might have made a turn back a bit more complicated?



Hmm... Yes.. I agree. I plotted the coordinates and it looks like it's pretty much a straight line with the FR24 data. Except this is the weird part... It seems to me the debris field and subsequent crater indicate a northward impact.

I looked up the site based on images at AVH. The dark rectangular piece of land it came down on is situated in a north-south direction. I interpret the images such that the impact was in the upper/left (=northern) part of the field. The debris was then spread to the south in the direction of the impact. Judging from the crater, the impact was almost vertical, but some forward motion was still preserved.

The AVH images were taken with the camera facing ~70 degrees (east north-east), incidentally the same as the runway direction at ADD.

Link to Google Earth showing the site:

https://earth.app.goo.gl/fmNXTs

There seems to be no mountains in the flight path, even if there are smaller ridges and hills. They came down west of a peak, but it seems they could have passed by it just as well (given level flight, which was not the case obviously, just clarifying they didn’t go into a hill side) as the ground is level on the site and also southwards. There is another mountain in the area, but not in the probable flight path. It would seem they took off from RWY 07R, continued east for a couple of minutes and just after FR24 coverage ran out, they turned south, but then stayed on heading 180 more or less for a minute or two. On the map of the ”Theoretical flight path” that washingtonflier posted, the crash site would be east of the question mark in the right part of the image.

/Fredrik
Last edited by FredrikHAD on Mon Mar 11, 2019 10:44 pm, edited 2 times in total.
 
washingtonflyer
Posts: 1609
Joined: Sun Sep 08, 2013 9:45 pm

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 10:20 pm

Blotto wrote:
washingtonflyer wrote:
Do we know the orientation of the crash based on photos or people's datamining the crash photos and maps? In other words given the lack of FR24 data, can we state if the plane was headed west or northwest or east? With the crash site pinpointed in post #1171, do we assume the plane - at some point, made a 180 turn towards ADD and that is where it went down?


Theoretical track....

Image


For what we know so far, that map is wrong. Crash site most likely is a few miles east of the big mountain in the middle of the map


If 8°52'38.04"N 39°15'4.28"E is the correct location (obviously the Observer map is wrong (no surprise), and it would put the crash site about 7 miles north of Ejere or 18 miles ENE or Bishoftu. Again, it would be interesting to know the orientation of the crash pattern - headed south, south east, west? I guess we can look at photos and shadows and take estimates. Of coursed, at 8 degrees north at what is near the equinox in the calendar, we won't have long shadows until the extreme parts of the day.

A straight line map from ADD shows the crash site to be 30 miles from the airport. Does that seem to be a significant distance to travel in 6 minutes (and six minutes after takeoff)?
 
marktci
Posts: 199
Joined: Wed Aug 05, 2009 4:05 am

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 10:21 pm

Because I had to look it up, I figured I'd post what the FAA means by a CANIC (I assume some know and some don't):

a. A CANIC is used to notify civil airworthiness authorities of other countries of pending
significant safety actions. A significant safety action can be defined as, but not limited to, the
following:
(1) Urgent safety situations;
(2) The pending issuance of an Emergency AD;
(3) A safety action that affects many people, operators;
(4) A Special Federal Aviation Regulation (SFAR);
(5) Other high interest event (e.g., a special certification review).


http://rgl.faa.gov/Regulatory_and_Guida ... 040_1C.pdf
 
User avatar
piedmontf284000
Posts: 468
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 10:23 pm

cpd wrote:
BaconButty wrote:
oschkosch wrote:
FAA has announced they will issue a CANIC for the Max.....Sounds fishy to me!


https://mobile.twitter.com/FAANews/stat ... 3244750849

Gesendet von meinem SM-G950F mit Tapatalk

They should issue a Precautionary Air Notice for the International Community.


Isn't it a bit premature for the FAA to be issuing any statements or directives when the facts of this incident are not known? Talk about jumping to conclusions.

Some of the witness reports suggest an explosion - but we can't really say one way or the other. The only way for all the operators at the moment is to proceed with caution.


The FAA admits as much by making the following statement:

“External reports are drawing similarities between this accident and the Lion Air Flight 610 accident on October 29, 2018,” the FAA said in its notice. “However, this investigation has just begun and to date we have not been provided data to draw any conclusions or take any actions.”

It is still too early for mandates but with the CAAC, Indonesia, and multiple airlines grounding the airplane, they had do something and not just sit idle.

The FAA also made the announcement in the same statement that they stand by the aircraft by reiterating that it is airworthy. If they honestly felt it wasn't they would keep it on the ground.

The investigation is going to take a major u-turn in my opinion. Everybody is jumping the gun on this one. This air crash has a lot of elements none of which are anymore more conclusive then the next. Unfortunately we live in a instantaneous society where everybody wants to know immediately what caused the crash. Add to that social media, which creates a layer of confusion and made up facts that makes the situation even worse.
 
KingOrGod
Posts: 158
Joined: Mon Jan 16, 2017 3:19 pm

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 10:29 pm

piedmontf284000 wrote:
cpd wrote:
BaconButty wrote:
They should issue a Precautionary Air Notice for the International Community.


Isn't it a bit premature for the FAA to be issuing any statements or directives when the facts of this incident are not known? Talk about jumping to conclusions.

Some of the witness reports suggest an explosion - but we can't really say one way or the other. The only way for all the operators at the moment is to proceed with caution.

...If they honestly felt it wasn't they would keep it on the ground....

The investigation is going to take a major u-turn in my opinion. Everybody is jumping the gun on this one.


The FAA cannot say anything else as they certified it.

It's the prerogative of respective agencies to decide what they will do safety wise, and I don't see it as jumping the gun. If it is not the same cause, they appear as over-protective. If it is the same cause, they will have been justified. There is nothing at all to lose. Nothing.

I was not prepared to fly Max after Lion air, and I am certainly no more eager now.
 
aircatalonia
Posts: 642
Joined: Wed Nov 28, 2007 12:50 pm

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 10:35 pm

1. The two accidents are unrelated
2. Both accidents are related: pilots don't know/can't disable auto-trim (or however is called).
3. Both accidents are related in a way we don't yet understand.
 
TTailedTiger
Posts: 2595
Joined: Sun Aug 26, 2018 5:19 am

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 10:38 pm

Francoflier wrote:
ikramerica wrote:
ClubCX wrote:
China has just produced its own competitor to the 737 MAX and is using this as an opportunity to promote it and frame the American plane as inferior.

Not to get too much OT, but after Trump walked out on Kim, Xi canceled his meeting with Trump, and Trump made greater demands on Kim. Tariff negotiations also broke down.

Grounding the Max and preventing more deliveries would be a way of hurting the trade deficit further.

And China was hoping that other major countries would follow suit. May even be pressuring belt and road partners to ground the Max.

But its all about safety...


Please stop making up your own reality just because you can't live with the idea that maybe, possibly, there might be something wrong with the airplane and that Boeing unwillingly screwed the pooch... perhaps.

Unfortunately, that possibility is very much there, and China has decided to guard against it. Others may decide differently, but I can bet you there isn't a single aviation authority out there not at least considering it.

The safest course of action is to avoid risk until it is at least identified, quantified and addressed. If Boeing and the Max are cleared, then at worst all it's cost is delays, a bit of lost revenue and some frustrated passengers.

Quit pretending there isn't a potential issue for the sake of defending a corporation, especially in the wake of so many deaths. Surely, your pride can't hurt as much as the sorrow of those who lost loved ones for no good reason.


And if turns out that Boeing isn’t at fault? Then what? Is it ok to ruin someone's public image based on a hunch?
 
SJPBR
Posts: 122
Joined: Wed Dec 07, 2016 11:54 pm

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 10:40 pm

G3 also grounded Max. Just saw in Brazilian news

edited:typo
 
TheDigitalOne
Posts: 1
Joined: Mon Dec 29, 2014 5:40 am

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 10:43 pm

How long after the Indonesia crash did it take to get the initial CVR and FDR reports?
 
User avatar
Francoflier
Posts: 5412
Joined: Wed Oct 31, 2001 12:27 pm

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 10:47 pm

TTailedTiger wrote:
And if turns out that Boeing isn’t at fault? Then what? Is it ok to ruin someone's public image based on a hunch?


Public image? You gotta be kidding me.

The news coverage and the hundreds of victims have taken care of Boeing's public image already. There is little China's or anybody else's civil aviation authority can do to hurt it further at the moment.

And a company's 'public image' is just about the last thing regulators think about when making these decisions, as it should certainly should.
I'll do my own airline. With Blackjack. And hookers. In fact, forget the airline.
 
TTailedTiger
Posts: 2595
Joined: Sun Aug 26, 2018 5:19 am

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 10:49 pm

Francoflier wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
And if turns out that Boeing isn’t at fault? Then what? Is it ok to ruin someone's public image based on a hunch?


Public image? You gotta be kidding me.

The news coverage and the hundreds of victims have taken care of Boeing's public image already. There is little China's or anybody else's civil aviation authority can do to hurt it further at the moment.

And a company's 'public image' is just about the last thing regulators think about when making these decisions, as it should certainly should.


You do not know the cause of this accident. Stop saying that it is Boeing's fault .
 
chicawgo
Posts: 443
Joined: Tue Nov 29, 2011 5:09 pm

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 10:49 pm

many321 wrote:
Etheereal wrote:
Funny part of that is that AA is so out of touch with their own OPS, they dont even know what planes they fly at all. AA does NOT fly the 3M9 but the 8 instead, specially to Quito. Im not sure if UA flies the max9,


UA does fly the MAX9 they use it for domestic routes, and just recently started short International OPS to SAL. I was about to book a flight, and looking forward to fly the MAX9, though after this. I know I'll be call a wuss, until the main reason for both crashes are found, I'm not risking my or my elderly mother's life.


Better not drive to the airport then. Nor should you fly at all. Honestly, you nor your elderly mother should leave the house at all.
 
marktci
Posts: 199
Joined: Wed Aug 05, 2009 4:05 am

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 10:52 pm

TTailedTiger wrote:
Francoflier wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
And if turns out that Boeing isn’t at fault? Then what? Is it ok to ruin someone's public image based on a hunch?


Public image? You gotta be kidding me.

The news coverage and the hundreds of victims have taken care of Boeing's public image already. There is little China's or anybody else's civil aviation authority can do to hurt it further at the moment.

And a company's 'public image' is just about the last thing regulators think about when making these decisions, as it should certainly should.


You do not know the cause of this accident. Stop saying that it is Boeing's fault .


Nowhere did he say it was Boeing's fault.
 
IADCA
Posts: 2187
Joined: Mon Feb 26, 2007 12:24 am

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 10:58 pm

TTailedTiger wrote:
Francoflier wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
And if turns out that Boeing isn’t at fault? Then what? Is it ok to ruin someone's public image based on a hunch?


Public image? You gotta be kidding me.

The news coverage and the hundreds of victims have taken care of Boeing's public image already. There is little China's or anybody else's civil aviation authority can do to hurt it further at the moment.

And a company's 'public image' is just about the last thing regulators think about when making these decisions, as it should certainly should.


You do not know the cause of this accident. Stop saying that it is Boeing's fault .


Mate, he literally said "maybe, possibly" in one post and then said absolutely nothing about fault lying with Boeing in the post you just responded to. From that bit of the exchange, if anyone here looks like he's trying to drive a premature conclusion as to any potential culpability here, it's you. It's likely that's not your actual intent, but - ironically, given the context - my point is that the perception does matter.

I find it weird that people on this site seem to be pushing for one conclusion or another (again, not saying that's necessarily you) in the absence of almost all evidence that would point in any particular direction and when the CVR and FDR have been recovered - suggesting a wealth of data that will become public in due course. The rush from various parties to blame the pilots, clear the pilots of blame, blame Boeing, clear Boeing of blame: weird and childish. I don't know who the people doing that expect they'll be convincing.
 
Morvious
Posts: 657
Joined: Sat Feb 19, 2005 8:36 pm

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 11:00 pm

Blaming a plane is one thing, blaming the co-pilot based on his flying hours alone, who just died in a tradigy is something else.

Lets wait before more information is released.
have a good day,

HereThen
 
TTailedTiger
Posts: 2595
Joined: Sun Aug 26, 2018 5:19 am

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 11:03 pm

IADCA wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
Francoflier wrote:

Public image? You gotta be kidding me.

The news coverage and the hundreds of victims have taken care of Boeing's public image already. There is little China's or anybody else's civil aviation authority can do to hurt it further at the moment.

And a company's 'public image' is just about the last thing regulators think about when making these decisions, as it should certainly should.


You do not know the cause of this accident. Stop saying that it is Boeing's fault .


Mate, he literally said "maybe, possibly" in one post and then said absolutely nothing about fault lying with Boeing in the post you just responded to. From that bit of the exchange, if anyone here looks like he's trying to drive a premature conclusion as to any potential culpability here, it's you. It's likely that's not your actual intent, but - ironically, given the context - my point is that the perception does matter.

I find it weird that people on this site seem to be pushing for one conclusion or another (again, not saying that's necessarily you) in the absence of almost all evidence that would point in any particular direction and when the CVR and FDR have been recovered - suggesting a wealth of data that will become public in due course. The rush from various parties to blame the pilots, clear the pilots of blame, blame Boeing, clear Boeing of blame: weird and childish. I don't know who the people doing that expect they'll be convincing.


He said "The news coverage and the hundreds of victims have taken care of Boeing's public image already".

He is saying that the public already assumes it is Boeing's fault yet he wants to exacerbate the situation by grounding the worldwide fleet even though there is no evidence that demands such action.
 
User avatar
Erebus
Posts: 1167
Joined: Tue Oct 20, 2015 2:40 am

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 11, 2019 11:04 pm

chicawgo wrote:
many321 wrote:
Etheereal wrote:
Funny part of that is that AA is so out of touch with their own OPS, they dont even know what planes they fly at all. AA does NOT fly the 3M9 but the 8 instead, specially to Quito. Im not sure if UA flies the max9,


UA does fly the MAX9 they use it for domestic routes, and just recently started short International OPS to SAL. I was about to book a flight, and looking forward to fly the MAX9, though after this. I know I'll be call a wuss, until the main reason for both crashes are found, I'm not risking my or my elderly mother's life.


Better not drive to the airport then. Nor should you fly at all. Honestly, you nor your elderly mother should leave the house at all.


Quite insulting. He was not calling for a grounding of the aircraft but only that he would avoid flying on it which in the present circumstances is not unreasonable at all. People have varying levels of comfort regarding their personal safety, and if you feel comfortable about it, good for you. Would you tell it to the family of a victim that the MAX is absolutely safe to fly and if they don't they're better off not leaving the house?

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