pugman211
Posts: 462
Joined: Thu Dec 20, 2012 1:55 pm

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Tue Mar 12, 2019 8:05 pm

casinterest wrote:
pugman211 wrote:
casinterest wrote:

The end of all of this, is that if you don't trust the data, fly the plane manually.


If you fly manually, I believe MCAS can engage without warning or prompting if triggered.


Per the below article,. it will reengage if you use the electric trim.

That is why there is a procedure for turning the Trim off Manually.


Sorry, I quoted you thinking you meant leaving the electric trim on and fly manually. Yes, there is the cut out procedure to fall back on.
 
Elementalism
Posts: 380
Joined: Sat Jun 10, 2017 4:03 am

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Tue Mar 12, 2019 8:05 pm

Airspeed issues could also result in control issues at low speed? And would like to see what is found by unreliable airspeed. There can be an interpretation on that. Was it reading unreliably or was there an engine problem and they were not able to reliably maintain or build airspeed?
 
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Carlos01
Posts: 140
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Tue Mar 12, 2019 8:06 pm

trpmb6 wrote:
I'll be pretty blunt. Quite certain Boeing and the FAA believe the previous AD released is adequate for safety. Follow the checklist and hit the trim cutoff switch.

Also.. how the hell is that racist?


Feel free to be as blunt as you like, I really don't mind. But I think everyone here knows, that Boeing and the FAA simply cannot instruct to ground the MAX. That would open so many cans of worms, that they will just not do it. And that again is worth for them more than hundreds of innocent lives. Apparently.

The racism is two-fold. First of all, the people who died in these crashes don't really matter, because they are just some random Asian and African, who's counting. And secondly, presuming that these crashes are due to the retarded countries where the airlines are based, rather than considering that actually the Boeing product might be to blame.

And for the record, I have been a huge fan of Boeing all my life, for which reason I am taking this very personally. Not to mention I have at least two takeoffs every flippin' week.
 
mjoelnir
Posts: 8361
Joined: Sun Feb 03, 2013 11:06 pm

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Tue Mar 12, 2019 8:07 pm

JoeCanuck wrote:
Carlos01 wrote:

This is the part I still don't understand. Everyone keeps saying "safety first", "safety is our top priority" and all that crap, and yet actions are the complete opposite. You want to save the faux horror, and keep on flying until we know more. Fine. But what if there will be another deadly crash while we wait? Is that seriously "ok"? Shit happens? Human life really means that little to you and other likeminded people?

It seems to me that Boeing, their fanboys, and the FAA are completely indifferent to the fact that hundreds of people have been killed, and it could be their fault! Well ok, not the fanboys, but the other two. Seriously, this so-what attitude is just unbelievable, even racist.


Almost very aircraft accident is treated like this. It's not just Boeing and the FAA. Grounding is the exception, not the rule, for everybody.

Making this a Boeing vs everyone else thing, is ridiculous.


That is pretty uninformed. It may be the rule for the FAA never to inconvenience an USA producer by grounding their frame before the data forces them to do it. The UK has been used to ground frames as a precautionary measure while an accident is researched all the way back to the Comet 1.
 
CO953
Posts: 511
Joined: Tue Jan 08, 2013 4:05 am

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Tue Mar 12, 2019 8:11 pm

trpmb6 wrote:
Trin wrote:
estorilm wrote:


One of the most pointed and impressively simple questions I've seen so far on here. My thoughts EXACTLY. It is high time that we got some answers as to the basic handling characteristics of this airframe, and what was discovered ruing testing/modeling that made the need for MCAS (or, if you are being pedantic - 'enhanced MCAS' on the MAX) to be implemented/allowed such aggressive and exclusive/recurring control of certain situations.



The Max is not inherently unstable (like some fighter planes may be to achieve better maneuverability as someone upthread quipped). It will fly straight and level under normal conditions just like the NG will. What differs is the behavior as you approach edge of the flight envelope. The closer to stall you get in a max the harder it is to recover in relation to the NG* Note, this does not mean that you cannot recover from that portion of the envelope, only that it does not behave, or feel like the NG does. To help assist, and to maintain type ratings, the MCAS was introduced to adjust horizontal stab trim automatically. The result was that as you approach these edges of the flight envelope you would perceive virtually no difference in aircraft behavior between the Max and the NG.


And this is the fly in the ointment here. If the MAX does not "like to fly" as well as the NG in the same edge-of-envelope areas, then Boeing knowingly chose to continue with a design that was aerodynamically inferior to its predecessor.

Game this out: Pretend that all of the airlines who dumped the MD-11 so quickly had instead stuck with them like Delta sticks with its MDs. How many landing rollover crashes would we have had by now, with hundreds or even thousands of dead passengers? The outcry would have been so severe that the MD-11 would have been grounded, and likely retired. All because MD went in pursuit of a little more gas mileage and made the horizontal stabilizer too small for the airframe, as opposed to the DC-10.

Now picture that you've got 5,000 MD-11s on order when the landing issue becomes clear. What does McDonnell-Douglas do? What do the NTSB/FAA do? Do they wait for 3 or 4 inverted balls of fire before grounding the MD-11? And what happens with the 5,000 pending MD-11 orders?

Now we see the huge downside of the current Airbus/Boeing duopoly. Half the world's future orders are in the Boeing basket, There's no Lockheed or MD-D or Convair to pick up the slack and let those orders jump elsewhere. The MAX is a fait accompli, and It will take a huge governmental/carrier effort to drag Boeing kicking and screaming toward a solution that elevates true safety over the huge hit to Boeing's bottom line that would happen were major airframe changes to be implemented for the purpose of eliminating MCAS, such as a new landing gear, repositioned engines, etc., as opposed to software tweaks.

Make no mistake, the resolution of this issue is a huge historical moment in the age of duopoly. Will the world's airlines and passengers be forced to eat the MAX as is - or nearly as is - with some software fig leaf, all because the momentum of the project is too great to disrupt, and the world's airlines can't easily take their business to a competitor, due to lack of capacity and designs?

What a mess. I had more faith in a multi-manufacturer world. Now we get to choose from Spam, Spam, or Spam.
 
JoeCanuck
Posts: 4704
Joined: Mon Dec 19, 2005 3:30 am

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Tue Mar 12, 2019 8:12 pm

pugman211 wrote:
casinterest wrote:

The end of all of this, is that if you don't trust the data, fly the plane manually.


If you fly manually, I believe MCAS can engage without warning or prompting if triggered.


Not if you hit the cutoff switches or lower flaps.
What the...?
 
SimonL
Posts: 39
Joined: Tue Mar 12, 2019 3:38 pm

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Tue Mar 12, 2019 8:14 pm

estorilm wrote:
Curiousflyer wrote:
A big difference in this crash is that the Lion Air plane was apparently not airworthy, it had major issues on its earlier flight and should not have been sent on this suicide mission. Of course it would be good to see a CVR transcript and anyone can now tell that it is being held from the public at a time where major questions are raising. Horrible attitude from the Lion Air crash investigators.
The Ethiopian aircraft on the other hand seemed to be in good shape when it left for its last flight, had been recently checked, and Ethiopian at least have a better reputation (and although some people would question the first officer's lack of experience, the captain at least had plenty). So this is a much more significant crash, it is less likely to be blamed on the airline and its pilots, and we meed to understand more about it.
I think grounding those planes will also kick Boeing's and and the FAA's butts, they seem to need this.

I don't know why people fixate on this so much (Lion Air's MX).

Parts break on aircraft constantly, usually in the air. The issue is if said part, sensor, or system failing can lead to a dangerous situation or crash. The grounding isn't just about the Lion Air crash, it's about the systems in the aircraft at this point.

If that same inop part failed in flight on another aircraft, who the hell cares about Lion Air's mx issues - now they're a couple miles in the air in the exact same potentially dangerous situation. Their mx is literally completely irrelevant. Sure slap them with a fine, and it'll hurt their reputation - but as far as the MAX's safety is concerned, you can't have single-point failures like that.

Just my $.02


Agree. A system that can cause erratic behavior on climbout due to the failure of a single sensor is a very poorly designed system that shouldnt be allowed on an airliner regardless if there are methods to deal with it or not. Because it still creates a situation where the only thing preventing a disaster is that the pilots reacts correctly in a stressful situation with possibly confusing data presented to them.
 
aden23
Posts: 23
Joined: Thu May 03, 2018 11:12 pm

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Tue Mar 12, 2019 8:15 pm

For those interested in an *extraordinarily* thorough read about MCAS, aircraft design, and CRM, this article is hard to beat:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/422439 ... ort?page=3

It was released after the Lion Air crash, but provides unparalleled insight into the issues.

Note: you may have to register for free to access it.
 
estorilm
Posts: 622
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Tue Mar 12, 2019 8:16 pm

Elementalism wrote:
Airspeed issues could also result in control issues at low speed? And would like to see what is found by unreliable airspeed. There can be an interpretation on that. Was it reading unreliably or was there an engine problem and they were not able to reliably maintain or build airspeed?

This has been my train of thought lately, thought not quite the same cause.

As is typically the case, there's usually a number of contributing factors to a crash. We can assume unreliable airspeed is one of them (and another link in the chain of events would be whatever failed and caused that fault to begin with) - but subsequent to that, it's very possible that they got too slow. I don't think an engine failure is likely, as we have some FR24 data showing high-ish speeds, and they called in with control problems and unreliable airspeed. I'd certainly assume an engine failure would have been mentioned (probably first) if it had occurred.

Anyways, if they got slow, I have my doubts as to the MAX's handling characteristics at that point - at least after they apply TOGA thrust.

Who knows - maybe we even have the opposite of Lion Air here, and the faulty airspeed data PREVENTED MCAS from avoiding a stall? It's all speculation at this point really.
 
JoeCanuck
Posts: 4704
Joined: Mon Dec 19, 2005 3:30 am

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Tue Mar 12, 2019 8:17 pm

trpmb6 wrote:
JoeCanuck wrote:
Carlos01 wrote:

This is the part I still don't understand. Everyone keeps saying "safety first", "safety is our top priority" and all that crap, and yet actions are the complete opposite. You want to save the faux horror, and keep on flying until we know more. Fine. But what if there will be another deadly crash while we wait? Is that seriously "ok"? Shit happens? Human life really means that little to you and other likeminded people?

It seems to me that Boeing, their fanboys, and the FAA are completely indifferent to the fact that hundreds of people have been killed, and it could be their fault! Well ok, not the fanboys, but the other two. Seriously, this so-what attitude is just unbelievable, even racist.


Almost very aircraft accident is treated like this. It's not just Boeing and the FAA. Grounding is the exception, not the rule, for everybody.

Making this a Boeing vs everyone else thing, is ridiculous.



I'll be pretty blunt. Quite certain Boeing and the FAA believe the previous AD released is adequate for safety. Follow the checklist and hit the trim cutoff switch.

Also.. how the hell is that racist?


Racist?
What the...?
 
michi
Posts: 249
Joined: Thu Jul 15, 2004 9:18 pm

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Tue Mar 12, 2019 8:19 pm

Stall is AOA dependend. Not speed!

You can stall an aircraft at any speed.
 
CO953
Posts: 511
Joined: Tue Jan 08, 2013 4:05 am

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Tue Mar 12, 2019 8:20 pm

Curiousflyer wrote:
A big difference in this crash is that the Lion Air plane was apparently not airworthy, it had major issues on its earlier flight and should not have been sent on this suicide mission. Of course it would be good to see a CVR transcript and anyone can now tell that it is being held from the public at a time where major questions are raising. Horrible attitude from the Lion Air crash investigators. They might have blood on their hands.
The Ethiopian aircraft on the other hand seemed to be in good shape when it left for its last flight, had been recently checked, and Ethiopian at least have a better reputation (and although some people would question the first officer's lack of experience, the captain at least had plenty). So this is a much more significant crash, it is less likely to be blamed on the airline and its pilots, and we meed to understand more about it.
I think grounding those planes will also kick Boeing's and and the FAA's butts, they seem to need this. Because they might have blood on their hands too, maybe because of the government shutdown, which leaves blood on Trump's hands too, the monster. Including eight Americans.


34 pages to finally learn that President Trump crashed the MAX.
Thanks for clearing that up for us.
:yes:
 
rideforever
Posts: 23
Joined: Mon Mar 11, 2019 1:06 pm

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Tue Mar 12, 2019 8:27 pm

New Guidance :
Aircraft may command 2.5 degs nosedown for 9.5 seconds repeating after 5 secs break (in unusual circumstances).
Please pull out fuses if you notice this happening.
Have a safe trip.
 
AntonioMartin
Posts: 507
Joined: Thu Jul 27, 2017 11:58 am

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Tue Mar 12, 2019 8:29 pm

trent768 wrote:
ytz wrote:
RB211trent wrote:
Seems to me people are more concerned about damaging Boeing and the 737.


Indeed. The level of ignorance and veiled racism in this thread is astonishing.

I'm in the air force in my country. I've been involved in flight safety and crash investigations. I know that if we had two crashes with such similar profiles, there would absolutely be severe operational restrictions while the investigation is going on. That'd be the minimum. If not, flat out grounding. It's remarkable to me sometimes, how much less precautionary civilian regulators and OEMs are.

Because for some of them, it happened in "a poor country where the goal of every airline is to kill their passengers". Somehow, I get the feeling that some poster implicitly stated that the 300 deaths is insignificant when compared to the financial damage airlines and Boeing will suffer. I dare them to say that in front of my parent's friend, who only have their son's arm to bury.

Very sorry for your loss..
 
Curiousflyer
Posts: 542
Joined: Sun Oct 22, 2006 3:19 am

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Tue Mar 12, 2019 8:40 pm

CO953 wrote:
Curiousflyer wrote:
A big difference in this crash is that the Lion Air plane was apparently not airworthy, it had major issues on its earlier flight and should not have been sent on this suicide mission. Of course it would be good to see a CVR transcript and anyone can now tell that it is being held from the public at a time where major questions are raising. Horrible attitude from the Lion Air crash investigators. They might have blood on their hands.
The Ethiopian aircraft on the other hand seemed to be in good shape when it left for its last flight, had been recently checked, and Ethiopian at least have a better reputation (and although some people would question the first officer's lack of experience, the captain at least had plenty). So this is a much more significant crash, it is less likely to be blamed on the airline and its pilots, and we meed to understand more about it.
I think grounding those planes will also kick Boeing's and and the FAA's butts, they seem to need this. Because they might have blood on their hands too, maybe because of the government shutdown, which leaves blood on Trump's hands too, the monster. Including eight Americans.


34 pages to finally learn that President Trump crashed the MAX.
Thanks for clearing that up for us.
:yes:


Someone mentioned it before me so I don't need the praise, I am just reformulating. But without the shutdown maybe a fix could have been approved, and even sought after, by the FAA earlier. While this fix is not worked upon and approved, this plane should not fly. Trump tweets that the Max is too sophisticated but we all understand that Trump is not sophisticated enough and that it is starting to cost American lives.
 
osiris30
Posts: 2655
Joined: Sat Sep 30, 2006 10:16 am

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Tue Mar 12, 2019 8:59 pm

Z88 wrote:
This thread contains much explanation and speculation about MCAS and whether it aligns with the limited amount of available information.

MCAS aside, is there another plausible malfunction that fits what is known, including the Flightradar24 data and the condition of the impact site?


Misconfigured aircraft
Flight control failure
Pilot Error
Structural Failure
Minor explosive device severing control lines
Incorrect performed maintenance
Manufacturing defect

I mean... pretty much ANYTHING is still on the table except a safe return to the airport. That is why the constant discussion of MCAS is infuriating.
I don't care what you think of my opinion. It's my opinion, so have a nice day :)
 
phugoid1982
Posts: 52
Joined: Sat Sep 10, 2016 4:02 am

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Tue Mar 12, 2019 9:08 pm

hamiltondaniel wrote:
phugoid1982 wrote:

If I remember correctly, the MD-11 was designed to have a much smaller static margin and thus much less trim drag to improve fuel efficiency which made it a big more difficult to handle especially during landing hence the multiple landing accidents. It seem like the quest for greater and greater efficiency and increased automation in an attempt to remove pilots from the loop has come at a cost to safety.



Unfairly quoting you specifically when it's no less than 50% of the posters on this thread making the same argument that "too much automation is coming at a cost to safety" Even so.

Enough. It's simply not statistically accurate to say that. Automation is the reason that airplanes are as safe as they are. Human factors are still, by far, the most common reason for accidents.

Is automation perfect? Of course not. It must and can be improved. But it's already vastly better than the alternative. The Back-to-the-Stone-Age dialogue developing around this aircraft is absurd as it is entirely unrelated to the evidence; the evidence tells us that automation improves safety.


Fair enough. I should've phrased that better and not gotten caught up in the fervor. I do agree that from a statistical point of view that air travel is much safer than it was ever before. There is no denying that. However, the use of automation has necessitated a comprehensive review of the role pilots play in commanding aircraft. It has become a much more "Supervisory" role as a systems engineer. However, I'm under the impression that pilot training has attempted to get guys in the air quicker without the necessary in-depth knowledge of the systems that are there to aid them. I'm not a luddite and I'm certainly not saying that we go back to reversible push-pull rod cable controls but there must be some middle ground. Also, to my second point, maybe taking a 50 year old design that was designed to basically be its era's regional jet and continuing to modify it beyond its intended capability as a knee-jerk reaction to the market and then adapting a software fix to address its stability deficiencies wasn't the best move.
 
smartplane
Posts: 903
Joined: Fri Aug 03, 2018 9:23 pm

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Tue Mar 12, 2019 9:11 pm

osiris30 wrote:
Z88 wrote:
This thread contains much explanation and speculation about MCAS and whether it aligns with the limited amount of available information.

MCAS aside, is there another plausible malfunction that fits what is known, including the Flightradar24 data and the condition of the impact site?


Misconfigured aircraft
Flight control failure
Pilot Error
Structural Failure
Minor explosive device severing control lines
Incorrect performed maintenance
Manufacturing defect

I mean... pretty much ANYTHING is still on the table except a safe return to the airport. That is why the constant discussion of MCAS is infuriating.

Except, the urgent software and hardware changes initiated within 2 weeks of the Lion crash, promised for April 2019, are primarily MCAS related. When were the majority of operators, owners and airworthiness authorities advised? After a second crash?
 
PixelPilot
Posts: 244
Joined: Tue Jan 16, 2018 1:19 am

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Tue Mar 12, 2019 9:14 pm

smartplane wrote:
osiris30 wrote:
Z88 wrote:
This thread contains much explanation and speculation about MCAS and whether it aligns with the limited amount of available information.

MCAS aside, is there another plausible malfunction that fits what is known, including the Flightradar24 data and the condition of the impact site?


Misconfigured aircraft
Flight control failure
Pilot Error
Structural Failure
Minor explosive device severing control lines
Incorrect performed maintenance
Manufacturing defect

I mean... pretty much ANYTHING is still on the table except a safe return to the airport. That is why the constant discussion of MCAS is infuriating.

Except, the urgent software and hardware changes initiated within 2 weeks of the Lion crash, promised for April 2019, are primarily MCAS related. When were the majority of operators, owners and airworthiness authorities advised? After a second crash?


Somebody in this post stated that ET chief said that pilots were trained about the MCAS after Lion Air crash.
 
planecane
Posts: 753
Joined: Thu Feb 09, 2017 4:58 pm

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Tue Mar 12, 2019 9:20 pm

Curiousflyer wrote:
CO953 wrote:
Curiousflyer wrote:
A big difference in this crash is that the Lion Air plane was apparently not airworthy, it had major issues on its earlier flight and should not have been sent on this suicide mission. Of course it would be good to see a CVR transcript and anyone can now tell that it is being held from the public at a time where major questions are raising. Horrible attitude from the Lion Air crash investigators. They might have blood on their hands.
The Ethiopian aircraft on the other hand seemed to be in good shape when it left for its last flight, had been recently checked, and Ethiopian at least have a better reputation (and although some people would question the first officer's lack of experience, the captain at least had plenty). So this is a much more significant crash, it is less likely to be blamed on the airline and its pilots, and we meed to understand more about it.
I think grounding those planes will also kick Boeing's and and the FAA's butts, they seem to need this. Because they might have blood on their hands too, maybe because of the government shutdown, which leaves blood on Trump's hands too, the monster. Including eight Americans.


34 pages to finally learn that President Trump crashed the MAX.
Thanks for clearing that up for us.
:yes:


Someone mentioned it before me so I don't need the praise, I am just reformulating. But without the shutdown maybe a fix could have been approved, and even sought after, by the FAA earlier. While this fix is not worked upon and approved, this plane should not fly. Trump tweets that the Max is too sophisticated but we all understand that Trump is not sophisticated enough and that it is starting to cost American lives.


I wasn't aware that Boeing was shut down by the government shutdown. Boeing's release indicates that they've been working on the fix since Lion Air.

The bottom line to me is that IF this ET crash was caused by MCAS, there is NO EXCUSE for the pilots to have not been aware of what to do. I'm not a pilot and with all of the publicity since Lion Air, I know what to do. You'd think a MAX pilot would cutoff the automatic trim the second that the aircraft seemed to keep trimming nose down and the pilots had to fight it.
 
Okie
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Joined: Wed Jul 16, 2003 11:30 am

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Tue Mar 12, 2019 9:25 pm

planecane wrote:
The bottom line to me is that IF this ET crash was caused by MCAS, there is NO EXCUSE for the pilots to have not been aware of what to do. I'm not a pilot and with all of the publicity since Lion Air, I know what to do. You'd think a MAX pilot would cutoff the automatic trim the second that the aircraft seemed to keep trimming nose down and the pilots had to fight it.


This got Okie to wondering what happened to WN to add 2nd AOA sensor.
Linked article also indicates that AOA problem can be displayed on heads down display but some operators did not choose that option.

https://theaircurrent.com/aviation-safe ... max-fleet/

Okie

Edit: So we know WN has the display. Do the other US operators have that option?
Last edited by Okie on Tue Mar 12, 2019 9:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
User avatar
trpmb6
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Tue Mar 12, 2019 9:27 pm

planecane wrote:
Curiousflyer wrote:
CO953 wrote:

34 pages to finally learn that President Trump crashed the MAX.
Thanks for clearing that up for us.
:yes:


Someone mentioned it before me so I don't need the praise, I am just reformulating. But without the shutdown maybe a fix could have been approved, and even sought after, by the FAA earlier. While this fix is not worked upon and approved, this plane should not fly. Trump tweets that the Max is too sophisticated but we all understand that Trump is not sophisticated enough and that it is starting to cost American lives.


I wasn't aware that Boeing was shut down by the government shutdown. Boeing's release indicates that they've been working on the fix since Lion Air.

The bottom line to me is that IF this ET crash was caused by MCAS, there is NO EXCUSE for the pilots to have not been aware of what to do. I'm not a pilot and with all of the publicity since Lion Air, I know what to do. You'd think a MAX pilot would cutoff the automatic trim the second that the aircraft seemed to keep trimming nose down and the pilots had to fight it.


I said it earlier and I'll say it again. The government shut down does not impact the implementation of AD's. It may have impacted STCs or other certification efforts (such as new aircraft) but anything that would have been a change to existing aircraft in the air would have been deemed an essential function and would have worked. (And for any naysayers, I've confirmed this multiple times through different sources)
 
ferren
Posts: 9
Joined: Mon Nov 05, 2018 5:38 pm

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Tue Mar 12, 2019 9:28 pm

the discussion is a little bit monotonic, so as a person who does not know abou aircraft certification procedures, I want to ask experts...

to simplify the question, it looks that 737max cerfification procedure was somehow “simplified” based on the similarity with NG..did they test aircraft behavior in similar conditions as both crashed flights( unreliable speed/aoa, possible mcas) or was it simulated only? are the reports from the certification flights public?
Secondary questions, are current recommendations based on real flight tests or again simulation only?
thanks for the answer....
 
Morvious
Posts: 648
Joined: Sat Feb 19, 2005 8:36 pm

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Tue Mar 12, 2019 9:30 pm

planecane wrote:
The bottom line to me is that IF this ET crash was caused by MCAS, there is NO EXCUSE for the pilots to have not been aware of what to do. I'm not a pilot and with all of the publicity since Lion Air, I know what to do. You'd think a MAX pilot would cutoff the automatic trim the second that the aircraft seemed to keep trimming nose down and the pilots had to fight it.


If we can assume this is a valid work around for whatever is causing the handling issues.

They don’t know what 100% happened in both crashes, hence the precaution with the grounding untill more is known.
have a good day,

HereThen
 
osiris30
Posts: 2655
Joined: Sat Sep 30, 2006 10:16 am

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Tue Mar 12, 2019 9:31 pm

smartplane wrote:
osiris30 wrote:
Z88 wrote:
This thread contains much explanation and speculation about MCAS and whether it aligns with the limited amount of available information.

MCAS aside, is there another plausible malfunction that fits what is known, including the Flightradar24 data and the condition of the impact site?


Misconfigured aircraft
Flight control failure
Pilot Error
Structural Failure
Minor explosive device severing control lines
Incorrect performed maintenance
Manufacturing defect

I mean... pretty much ANYTHING is still on the table except a safe return to the airport. That is why the constant discussion of MCAS is infuriating.

Except, the urgent software and hardware changes initiated within 2 weeks of the Lion crash, promised for April 2019, are primarily MCAS related. When were the majority of operators, owners and airworthiness authorities advised? After a second crash?


And my house was supposed to be painted by now too, so maybe that's the cause.... Care to point out the urgent software and hardware changes initiated? I know of revisions to MCAS software that as I understand has been underway for quite a while but not yet made it to see the light of day. What hardware changes? And what does ANY of that have to do with this crash? Please show your working on this one because I am confused at how you arrived at a seemingly random answer.
I don't care what you think of my opinion. It's my opinion, so have a nice day :)
 
osiris30
Posts: 2655
Joined: Sat Sep 30, 2006 10:16 am

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Tue Mar 12, 2019 9:32 pm

PixelPilot wrote:
smartplane wrote:
osiris30 wrote:

Misconfigured aircraft
Flight control failure
Pilot Error
Structural Failure
Minor explosive device severing control lines
Incorrect performed maintenance
Manufacturing defect

I mean... pretty much ANYTHING is still on the table except a safe return to the airport. That is why the constant discussion of MCAS is infuriating.

Except, the urgent software and hardware changes initiated within 2 weeks of the Lion crash, promised for April 2019, are primarily MCAS related. When were the majority of operators, owners and airworthiness authorities advised? After a second crash?


Somebody in this post stated that ET chief said that pilots were trained about the MCAS after Lion Air crash.


The Ethiopian CEO said it in the press himself. That's as horse's mouth as we are likely to get at this time.
I don't care what you think of my opinion. It's my opinion, so have a nice day :)
 
User avatar
stl07
Posts: 1344
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Tue Mar 12, 2019 9:35 pm

JoeCanuck wrote:
trpmb6 wrote:
JoeCanuck wrote:

Almost very aircraft accident is treated like this. It's not just Boeing and the FAA. Grounding is the exception, not the rule, for everybody.

Making this a Boeing vs everyone else thing, is ridiculous.



I'll be pretty blunt. Quite certain Boeing and the FAA believe the previous AD released is adequate for safety. Follow the checklist and hit the trim cutoff switch.

Also.. how the hell is that racist?


Racist?

I'm assuming this is in relation to the CNN report yesterday where on TV they interviewed an "aviation expert" who claimed that this isn't going to happen in America because America has better training and better maintenance (than those 3rd world countries-unspoken but understood addition) which is the most ridiculous claim I've ever heard, considering Ethipoian is one of the most respected airlines in the world, some people on this forum have the same attitude too.
Interesting how every thread is spammed with "bring back paid membership, there are too many spammers"
 
osiris30
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Tue Mar 12, 2019 9:43 pm

stl07 wrote:
JoeCanuck wrote:
trpmb6 wrote:


I'll be pretty blunt. Quite certain Boeing and the FAA believe the previous AD released is adequate for safety. Follow the checklist and hit the trim cutoff switch.

Also.. how the hell is that racist?


Racist?

I'm assuming this is in relation to the CNN report yesterday where on TV they interviewed an "aviation expert" who claimed that this isn't going to happen in America because America has better training and better maintenance (than those 3rd world countries-unspoken but understood addition) which is the most ridiculous claim I've ever heard, considering Ethipoian is one of the most respected airlines in the world, some people on this forum have the same attitude too.


Every aviation expert on TV is an abject f***ing moron... and that may be unkind to morons.
I don't care what you think of my opinion. It's my opinion, so have a nice day :)
 
Curiousflyer
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Tue Mar 12, 2019 9:46 pm

Posters have been claiming that the government shutdown and the prior MX issues of the Lion Air crashed plane are not strong reasons to explain why the Lion Air issue has not been sufficiently explained and mitigated before the Ethiopian crash. I will rest that case until further detail comes up.
 
Boeing787Guy
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Tue Mar 12, 2019 9:47 pm

[*]
Curiousflyer wrote:
.... because of the government shutdown, which leaves blood on Trump's hands too, the monster. Including eight Americans.


Well, only took 34 pages before Trump gets blamed, sad. The shutdown had ZERO to do with this as others have said.. ADs were absolutely processed during the shutdown
 
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stl07
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Tue Mar 12, 2019 9:48 pm

osiris30 wrote:
stl07 wrote:
JoeCanuck wrote:

Racist?

I'm assuming this is in relation to the CNN report yesterday where on TV they interviewed an "aviation expert" who claimed that this isn't going to happen in America because America has better training and better maintenance (than those 3rd world countries-unspoken but understood addition) which is the most ridiculous claim I've ever heard, considering Ethipoian is one of the most respected airlines in the world, some people on this forum have the same attitude too.


Every aviation expert on TV is an abject f***ing moron... and that may be unkind to morons.

I groaned the minute they said they are bringing up an expert to help explain. At least Anderson Cooper or Jake Tapper reading off a screen about the incident isn't a blatant lie
Last edited by stl07 on Tue Mar 12, 2019 9:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Interesting how every thread is spammed with "bring back paid membership, there are too many spammers"
 
GalaxyFlyer
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Tue Mar 12, 2019 9:49 pm

ferren wrote:
the discussion is a little bit monotonic, so as a person who does not know abou aircraft certification procedures, I want to ask experts...

to simplify the question, it looks that 737max cerfification procedure was somehow “simplified” based on the similarity with NG..did they test aircraft behavior in similar conditions as both crashed flights( unreliable speed/aoa, possible mcas) or was it simulated only? are the reports from the certification flights public?
Secondary questions, are current recommendations based on real flight tests or again simulation only?
thanks for the answer....


I’m fairly certain they discovered the stall sick force gradient problem during actual stall testing with the engines. The fix was also tested in flight. Not Boeing, but the information is likely proprietary and not public.

GF
 
32andBelow
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Tue Mar 12, 2019 9:49 pm

stl07 wrote:
JoeCanuck wrote:
trpmb6 wrote:


I'll be pretty blunt. Quite certain Boeing and the FAA believe the previous AD released is adequate for safety. Follow the checklist and hit the trim cutoff switch.

Also.. how the hell is that racist?


Racist?

I'm assuming this is in relation to the CNN report yesterday where on TV they interviewed an "aviation expert" who claimed that this isn't going to happen in America because America has better training and better maintenance (than those 3rd world countries-unspoken but understood addition) which is the most ridiculous claim I've ever heard, considering Ethipoian is one of the most respected airlines in the world, some people on this forum have the same attitude too.

I agree and I think small explosive is a glaringly obvious solution.
 
mrbots
Posts: 19
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Tue Mar 12, 2019 9:52 pm

Okie wrote:
planecane wrote:
The bottom line to me is that IF this ET crash was caused by MCAS, there is NO EXCUSE for the pilots to have not been aware of what to do. I'm not a pilot and with all of the publicity since Lion Air, I know what to do. You'd think a MAX pilot would cutoff the automatic trim the second that the aircraft seemed to keep trimming nose down and the pilots had to fight it.


This got Okie to wondering what happened to WN to add 2nd AOA sensor.
Linked article also indicates that AOA problem can be displayed on heads down display but some operators did not choose that option.

https://theaircurrent.com/aviation-safe ... max-fleet/

Okie

Edit: So we know WN has the display. Do the other US operators have that option?


Interesting article.

That same article says that AA has it on both NG and MAX.
 
planecane
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Tue Mar 12, 2019 9:55 pm

Morvious wrote:
planecane wrote:
The bottom line to me is that IF this ET crash was caused by MCAS, there is NO EXCUSE for the pilots to have not been aware of what to do. I'm not a pilot and with all of the publicity since Lion Air, I know what to do. You'd think a MAX pilot would cutoff the automatic trim the second that the aircraft seemed to keep trimming nose down and the pilots had to fight it.


If we can assume this is a valid work around for whatever is causing the handling issues.

They don’t know what 100% happened in both crashes, hence the precaution with the grounding untill more is known.

It seems pretty likely based on the FDR data that the handling issues were caused by MCAS commanding nose down. whether or not the pilots would have successfully landed with the sensory issues is another question. Of course, I'm referring to the Lion Air crash.
 
osiris30
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Tue Mar 12, 2019 10:06 pm

planecane wrote:
Morvious wrote:
planecane wrote:
The bottom line to me is that IF this ET crash was caused by MCAS, there is NO EXCUSE for the pilots to have not been aware of what to do. I'm not a pilot and with all of the publicity since Lion Air, I know what to do. You'd think a MAX pilot would cutoff the automatic trim the second that the aircraft seemed to keep trimming nose down and the pilots had to fight it.


If we can assume this is a valid work around for whatever is causing the handling issues.

They don’t know what 100% happened in both crashes, hence the precaution with the grounding untill more is known.

It seems pretty likely based on the FDR data that the handling issues were caused by MCAS commanding nose down. whether or not the pilots would have successfully landed with the sensory issues is another question. Of course, I'm referring to the Lion Air crash.


Have you seen the FDR data? I didn't think it had been published yet...
I don't care what you think of my opinion. It's my opinion, so have a nice day :)
 
IADCA
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Tue Mar 12, 2019 10:07 pm

32andBelow wrote:
stl07 wrote:
JoeCanuck wrote:

Racist?

I'm assuming this is in relation to the CNN report yesterday where on TV they interviewed an "aviation expert" who claimed that this isn't going to happen in America because America has better training and better maintenance (than those 3rd world countries-unspoken but understood addition) which is the most ridiculous claim I've ever heard, considering Ethipoian is one of the most respected airlines in the world, some people on this forum have the same attitude too.

I agree and I think small explosive is a glaringly obvious solution.


Which you previously pushed by saying this flight was going to Nigeria. Forgive me if I take your posts with a mine full of salt.
 
planecane
Posts: 753
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Tue Mar 12, 2019 10:10 pm

osiris30 wrote:
planecane wrote:
Morvious wrote:

If we can assume this is a valid work around for whatever is causing the handling issues.

They don’t know what 100% happened in both crashes, hence the precaution with the grounding untill more is known.

It seems pretty likely based on the FDR data that the handling issues were caused by MCAS commanding nose down. whether or not the pilots would have successfully landed with the sensory issues is another question. Of course, I'm referring to the Lion Air crash.


Have you seen the FDR data? I didn't think it had been published yet...


They published those graphs showing the nose down trim commands and the pilots applied control column and trim switch inputs.
 
1010101
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Tue Mar 12, 2019 10:11 pm

This article https://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/us_5c88 ... 0ddae54075 has two reports of a sudden pitch down after the autopilot is engaged. This would support the notion that something more than MCAS is involved.

Edited to add this direct link to the pilot asrs report. https://www.documentcloud.org/documents ... 10/a486269
Last edited by 1010101 on Tue Mar 12, 2019 10:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
jollo
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Tue Mar 12, 2019 10:18 pm

I'll second a question already asked many times in this thread, but yet never really answered if I'm not mistaken: what are the main differences between the certification process for a new design vs. for a "derivative" like the MAX ? What would it take for the FAA to reject a "derivative" application because modifications vs. the originally certified design went a bit too far?

Also, a question from a (non aviation) automation professional: any automation feature requiring positive action from a human controller to prevent a catastrophic runaway in case of a single sensor failure is unsafe, and would not pass a semi-serious design review anywhere in the world. An acceptable behavior for an automatic control, when sensor data is degraded enough (usually after at least two redundant sensor failures) and a safe shutdown is not possible, would be to hand full manual control back to the human supervisor. Where does MCAS stand in this spectrum?
 
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caoimhin
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Tue Mar 12, 2019 10:18 pm

osiris30 wrote:
Z88 wrote:
This thread contains much explanation and speculation about MCAS and whether it aligns with the limited amount of available information.

MCAS aside, is there another plausible malfunction that fits what is known, including the Flightradar24 data and the condition of the impact site?


Misconfigured aircraft
Flight control failure
Pilot Error
Structural Failure
Minor explosive device severing control lines
Incorrect performed maintenance
Manufacturing defect

I mean... pretty much ANYTHING is still on the table except a safe return to the airport. That is why the constant discussion of MCAS is infuriating.


Thanks for this my man. After 30+ pages of MCAS discussion, I was beginning to think I had missed the report conclusively associating MCAS with this incident.
 
WIederling
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Tue Mar 12, 2019 10:22 pm

1010101 wrote:
This article https://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/us_5c88 ... 0ddae54075 has two reports of a sudden pitch down after the autopilot is engaged. This would support the notion that something more than MCAS is involved.


Some reports coming in that Chinese pilots saw excessive AoA on 737MAX on a more or less regular basis:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/as ... c311a0d595

MCAS is the/one path to hell on MAX. But it is not the entry portal. That still is vague.
Murphy is an optimist
 
Miquel787
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Tue Mar 12, 2019 10:22 pm

So much opinions here, so much speculation about the cause of the accident.I am very sorry for all the victims from the crash and if there is a problem with the 737 MAX Boeing should fix it very promptly.

But i also feel sorry for Boeing.These events will ruin and haunt the company for a long time.Boeing doesn.t build planes to fall out of the sky.I think safety is always their primary concern. I saw so many mumbo jumbo stories in the press.So many dumb and brainless reactions on Facebook like 'kill Boeing or Ban Boeing airplanes, or those idiots who build them in Renton should be shot" These comments were all there..

I.m not a pilot or working in aviation.But i love aviation.Boeing or Airbus, they all build great machines.But airplanebuilding is complex. And if mistakes were made,they will be fixed.I hope the cause will quickly be found and it will fly again.I.m not going to specuate because i.don.t know anything about the technical systems.Let the investigators do their job and we have to wait and see what the outcome of this tragic accident is.

I still fly Boeing airplanes in the future, no doubt about it.
 
hamiltondaniel
Posts: 45
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Tue Mar 12, 2019 10:33 pm

WIederling wrote:
1010101 wrote:
This article https://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/us_5c88 ... 0ddae54075 has two reports of a sudden pitch down after the autopilot is engaged. This would support the notion that something more than MCAS is involved.


Some reports coming in that Chinese pilots saw excessive AoA on 737MAX on a more or less regular basis:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/as ... c311a0d595

MCAS is the/one path to hell on MAX. But it is not the entry portal. That still is vague.


That's not accurate, according to your own linked Washington Post article. Nobody said "reports of excessive AoA on a more or less regular basis"; here's the passage in question:

“They have had difficulty making a decision, so we took the lead,” CAAC Deputy Director Li Jian told reporters in Beijing, referring to a lack of stronger FAA measures regarding the 737 Max. Li added that the plane’s software may encounter serious problems when coupled with unreliable sensor readings and suggested that this has been happening to Chinese pilots. “These kinds of situations have already happened many times,” Li said, without giving more details, according to state media.

No details. State media. Sound familiar?

Take what the CAAC says with a grain of salt. We're in the middle of a (stupid, but that's off-topic) trade war with China. They also just debuted their own domestic 737 competitor and have obvious reasons to want to tarnish the reputation of the aircraft.

If the 737 is getting into "excessive AoA on a more or less regular basis" I would expect plenty of pilots coming forward to say so.

It's worth repeating, somehow (and someone should also probably tell the current president so he can stop stepping all over his own federal investigators): we have no idea if MCAS has anything to do with this accident.
 
WIederling
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Tue Mar 12, 2019 10:36 pm

1010101 wrote:
This article https://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/us_5c88 ... 0ddae54075 has two reports of a sudden pitch down after the autopilot is engaged. This would support the notion that something more than MCAS is involved.

Edited to add this direct link to the pilot asrs report. https://www.documentcloud.org/documents ... 10/a486269


Interpretation:
MCAS trimmed high and the activated autopilot corrected that ASAP.
This would indicate that MCAS and flight displays get wrong ( increased AoA) information
while the AP gets the correct one. That is a real can of worms, man!
Murphy is an optimist
 
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GEUltraFan9XGTF
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Tue Mar 12, 2019 10:39 pm

Tinfoil hat time: could China be hacking Boeings? Is it feasible? Tampering with the onboard computer?
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PacificBeach
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Tue Mar 12, 2019 10:40 pm

Chinese aren't the only ones that have reported issues:
https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/20 ... 737-max-8/

"Airline pilots on at least two flights have reported that an automated system seemed to cause their Boeing planes to tilt down suddenly, the same problem suspected of contributing to a deadly crash in Indonesia.

The pilots said that soon after engaging the autopilot on Boeing 737 Max 8 planes, the nose tilted down sharply. In both cases, they recovered quickly after disconnecting the autopilot."
 
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Erebus
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Tue Mar 12, 2019 10:41 pm

michi wrote:
As nobody answered before, I would like to repost some observations and questions.

There is a lot of focus on the MCAS. Still, there are other questions not answered yet.

Those questions came up after reading all the information in the news (and this thread). This information might not be reliable, incomplete (as FR24 coverage is poor in that area) and even fake. But still, there are question that should be asked. They might even help in looking somewhere else for clues.

The pilots apparently did notice something is wrong after being airborne. They apparently declared emergency and told ATC that they have unreliable airspeed. This is quite good, as the most difficult part with unreliable airspeed is the detection of unreliable air data. The pilots obviously did detect it.

But what caused the unreliable airspeed? (Remark: no tech history is known so far!)

Did they climb normal or not?
Despite the discussion wether the FR24 data is reliable or not, it is still not known for sure which altitude they have reached. The FR24 data and the eyewitness suggest a low altitude flight. Did they have an energy problem of some sort?

In case they did not climb that much, as it is being interpreted by the data available so far, what caused the degraded climb performance?
When having unreliable air data, pilots fly pitch and power. With specific pitch and power values, climb performance should be a no factor, even in ADD.

The pilots apparently reported difficulties in controlling the aircraft.
During unreliable speed scenarios controlling the aircraft is not the main task or issue, as all the controls should work normal. Something was obviously wrong. Is there a combination of events making control of the aircraft difficult and leaves you with unreliable air data and less than normal power?
Flock of birds hitting the aircraft at Radom, Engines and Pitots?

MCAS is using AOA. This sensor does not affect IAS. But the pilots apparently had unreliable airspeed, as noted above.

Since the pilots apparently knew (at wich timespan after takeoff is unclear as far as I am aware) that they had unreliable airspeed, they should have followed the respective procedure. This normally includes the instruction to not move the flaps until you have stabilized the aircraft and did troubleshoot the problem.
When does the Boeing FCOM procedure for unreliable air speed ask for cleaning up the aircraft? Any B737 driver around?
Also not cleaning up the aircraft prevents MCAS kicking in, as it only activates when the flaps are up (plus all the other engagement conditions).

Just by asking a few questions I think there is more to the story than MCAS kicking in. The trouble started way earlier during the flight.

The MCAS is a "tool" preventing the real bad, when everything else already went south. Apparently the trouble started earlier at stage where MCAS should not kick in per design (Flaps extended). The problems they had might have caused a situation where MCAS ultimately kicked in. But in this case it is way to early to claim MCAS as the root cause for this crash.

To me it does not look like Lionair with what is known so far.


Edit: a little n was missing somewhere


You are asking the same questions to which I too would like to see answers. But I would only add that there's probably still more to Lion Air than just an MCAS malfunction and it is possible that there is still a common source for the problem in both cases.



osiris30 wrote:
I mean... pretty much ANYTHING is still on the table except a safe return to the airport. That is why the constant discussion of MCAS is infuriating.


I must say that the constant discussion of MCAS is slightly infuriating me as well, but I don't think it is a reason we'll agree upon. JT610 MCAS malfunction was a symptom, not the cause. My opinion has always been that whatever that caused the MCAS to activate has not been determined with certainty, be it bad sensors or flight computers etc. It is also slightly disconcerting that the fixes are aimed at just the MCAS or so, if I have understood it correctly.
 
FlyingLaw1
Posts: 52
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Tue Mar 12, 2019 10:42 pm

Would it be possible to open a different thread disseminating the facts?
 
WIederling
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Tue Mar 12, 2019 10:44 pm

GEUltraFan9XGTF wrote:
Tinfoil hat time: could China be hacking Boeings? Is it feasible? Tampering with the onboard computer?

KISS. with a range of possible explanations the simplest one tends to be the right one.
What is known about MCAS, Boeing, FAA and the MAX in general and the associated warts of disinterest
would show a Chinese hack to be overly complex and thus improbable.
Murphy is an optimist

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