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Starlionblue
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Wed Mar 13, 2019 6:27 am

navjotgill45 wrote:
Apologies if asked before, thread too longto check. I'm still confused as to why MCAS would even operate in an AoA disagree situation. Surely the certifiers would have considered a "faulty airpseed/AoA etc" situation? Would love to be enlightened on this by knowledgeble posters (pilots/mechanics etc.)?


The trick is knowing that the airspeed and/or AoA is faulty. This is notoriously hard for a system to know. If a system "believes" the sensor data to be correct, it will act accordingly.

The only way to mitigate the issue is with multiple redundant sensors, and even then unreliable airspeed situations are something aircrew need to be keenly aware of.
"There are no stupid questions, but there are a lot of inquisitive idiots." - John Ringo
 
32andBelow
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Wed Mar 13, 2019 6:28 am

Starlionblue wrote:
Reefwiz wrote:
spacecadet wrote:

No, he chose to quote one witness - as did Reuters. Let's see what the actual pattern is among the other witnesses when asked non-leading questions that aren't designed to get matching answers by someone not in the media.



Just to be accurate, Reuters interviewed SIX villagers. FOUR reported seeing smoke trailing the aircraft and TWO heard metallic rattling noises in addition to seeing the smoke. Sounds to me like a hull breech by lithium batteries, compressed gas cylinders, hazardous materials or an old fashioned b0mb....probably in cargo hold.


They could very well have discussed it amongst themselves, strengthening and spreading a meme about the perceived sequence of events.

Again, because it bears repeating. Eyewitness accounts are notoriously unreliable, especially if they are coming from non-experts on the matter at hand. The brain plays tricks on us every day.

But 1000 a net posters spouting about some system they’d rent trained in is more reliable?
 
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Finn350
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Wed Mar 13, 2019 6:34 am

LTC8K6 wrote:
Finn350 wrote:
RandallStephens wrote:
Two different witness accounts. What I like is that they're not using big words to describe what they saw, they are using plain folk speech. To me that's believable.


https://youtu.be/DnCtVuLn5iY

https://youtu.be/3A9uHGqiyUA

Does mcas make a plane burn, too?


"Before falling down, the plane rotated two times in the air, and it had some smoke coming from the back then, it hit the ground and and exploded."

From the translation it is not clear what he meant. I would interpret that the plane was cartwheeling in the ground, and had some smoke coming as result of the cartwheeling, and then exploded. I don't see how it could have rotated two times when still airborne.


Aerial photos don't seem to show any evidence of cartwheeling along the ground, though.
You just never know about witness testimony.


That is true, and considering the fragmentation it probably was a very high velocity impact. Still I don’t understand rotating two times thing. Along which axis?
 
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Starlionblue
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Wed Mar 13, 2019 6:39 am

32andBelow wrote:
Starlionblue wrote:
Reefwiz wrote:


Just to be accurate, Reuters interviewed SIX villagers. FOUR reported seeing smoke trailing the aircraft and TWO heard metallic rattling noises in addition to seeing the smoke. Sounds to me like a hull breech by lithium batteries, compressed gas cylinders, hazardous materials or an old fashioned b0mb....probably in cargo hold.


They could very well have discussed it amongst themselves, strengthening and spreading a meme about the perceived sequence of events.

Again, because it bears repeating. Eyewitness accounts are notoriously unreliable, especially if they are coming from non-experts on the matter at hand. The brain plays tricks on us every day.

But 1000 a net posters spouting about some system they’d rent trained in is more reliable?


Just because I said that eyewitness accounts are notoriously unreliable, does not mean I think that all the posts about MCAS are reliable. :roll:
"There are no stupid questions, but there are a lot of inquisitive idiots." - John Ringo
 
Miquel787
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Wed Mar 13, 2019 6:45 am

AvFanNJ wrote:
Miquel787 wrote:
So much opinions here, so much speculation about the cause of the accident.I am very sorry for all the victims from the crash and if there is a problem with the 737 MAX Boeing should fix it very promptly.

But i also feel sorry for Boeing.These events will ruin and haunt the company for a long time.Boeing doesn.t build planes to fall out of the sky.I think safety is always their primary concern. I saw so many mumbo jumbo stories in the press.So many dumb and brainless reactions on Facebook like 'kill Boeing or Ban Boeing airplanes, or those idiots who build them in Renton should be shot" These comments were all there..

I.m not a pilot or working in aviation.But i love aviation.Boeing or Airbus, they all build great machines.But airplanebuilding is complex. And if mistakes were made,they will be fixed.I hope the cause will quickly be found and it will fly again.I.m not going to specuate because i.don.t know anything about the technical systems.Let the investigators do their job and we have to wait and see what the outcome of this tragic accident is.

I still fly Boeing airplanes in the future, no doubt about it.

Thank you for one of the more and unfortunately few rational posts on this topic in here. It's truly sad to see how unhinged some of the posters are. I've seldom seen such anger in the civil aviation forum with folks not only attacking Boeing and making judgements before all the facts are in but also throwing barbs at other members. Truly horrified at the nastiness I'm seeing. I understand folks being reticent about flying on a MAX right now but making rash indictments of the company for shortchanging safety for profits is premature until we have a root cause or causes for these crashes. I guess we can expect some of that from diehard fanboys and haters but really none of this banter is valid until the facts are in. No denying this is crisis time at Boeing but a lot of this outrage is a knee-jerk reaction lacking as yet, a clear rationale. If the FAA links this latest crash to the October one, the plane will be grounded but until then, U.S. airlines are flying it safely and I for one see no reason myself to avoid flying on it. Sure, those nervous about it should avoid it because flying should be about peace of mind. And I also think there are bunch of posters in here who need to turn it down, at least until a judgement has been rendered.

Thanx,I couldn.t agree more with you.
 
SuperEighty
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Wed Mar 13, 2019 6:48 am

[/quote]

Perhaps the recent focus and training on MCAS caused the ETH crew to assume that was the problem with their plane, but maybe it wasn't.

Maybe the crew even did the takeoff a different way?[/quote]


I was just thinking about that possibility. As MAX pilots, surely reading, hearing and learning plenty from Lion Air 610 they hyper focused on MCAS but misdiagnosed their problem.


-SuperEighty
 
NASBWI
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Wed Mar 13, 2019 6:51 am

In the second YouTube video posted just above (witness accounts), the gentleman is quoted as saying that “the nose went up” and then “the plane went side to side” before the “nose went down” and “tail went up”.

Without trying to speculate too much, and smoke notwithstanding: does anyone else feel that the airplane’s behavior (if proven accurate) is consistent with a stall? Usually, in an aerodynamic stall, one wing may stall before the other, causing the ‘dip’ that appears to have been described.

The conflict in my thinking is that in most stall events, the nose remains high unless there’s enough altitude to drop the nose. Perhaps with over a thousand feet, the nose may have dropped in time to tragically nose-in? Kind of like the National incident? But I’m still left wondering about the high speed with which it impacted. If there’s little forward speed, the plane would have most likely hit the ground flat, like AF447. But with greater forward speed, why would a stall occur?
Fierce, Fabulous, and Flawless ;)
 
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Starlionblue
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Wed Mar 13, 2019 6:53 am

NASBWI wrote:
In the second YouTube video posted just above (witness accounts), the gentleman is quoted as saying that “the nose went up” and then “the plane went side to side” before the “nose went down” and “tail went up”.

Without trying to speculate too much, and smoke notwithstanding: does anyone else feel that the airplane’s behavior (if proven accurate) is consistent with a stall? Usually, in an aerodynamic stall, one wing may stall before the other, causing the ‘dip’ that appears to have been described.

The conflict in my thinking is that in most stall events, the nose remains high unless there’s enough altitude to drop the nose. Perhaps with over a thousand feet, the nose may have dropped in time to tragically nose-in? Kind of like the National incident? But I’m still left wondering about the high speed with which it impacted. If there’s little forward speed, the plane would have most likely hit the ground flat, like AF447. But with greater forward speed, why would a stall occur?


Stalls can occur at any speed and are dependent on AoA only. Aircraft can be stalled with the nose pointing straight at the ground.
"There are no stupid questions, but there are a lot of inquisitive idiots." - John Ringo
 
sibibom
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Wed Mar 13, 2019 6:54 am

Bobloblaw wrote:
MillwallSean wrote:
downdata wrote:
The new reporting does say this is "causing U.S. investigators to hold intense behind-the-scenes talks to bring the remains to America, the Wall Street Journal reported", so even at the surface level, there seems to be some contention there.


Hmm, this is getting out of control.
If we cant trust national bodys and believe that corporate interests yield to much power, then present system of certification will break down and lead to alot of complications. Not sure I am to happy with that.
Also not to sure I understand anyones motive here. The Ethiopians choose where to send it. it is their investigation and their choice.
Why would the NTSB push to bring the boxes to the US should the Ethiopians want it done in the UK. the UK is as good as the NTSB so the rationale for this would give raise to a lot of unwarranted and unnecessary speculation. Whats hidden? Whos interests are protected?
And if that's the start or the cooperation between the assisting Americans and the lead agents from Ethiopia it doesn't bode well for the investigation.

Id say a lot of the blame for this can be placed squarely on the the FAA. They have been questioned, in regards to their independence, and that might be the issue here. A belief that there is a risk for bias should it be sent to the US.
However this is the American NTSB whom I haven't heard people question in regards to competence or bias. Anyway, if this becomes a trend it doesn't bode well for the neutrality and expertise that's expected from all the worlds investigating bodies.

Touch wood this is just the media making a hen out of a feather.

Why should the black boxes be analyzed in the UK?


Cos they are equally capable of investigating and its Ethiopian's prerogative. They are genuinely worried about being made a scapegoat of a biased investigation just like Lion Air was vilified publically even before the investigation has reached its conclusion.
 
Maslyukov
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Wed Mar 13, 2019 6:59 am

SwissCanuck wrote:
log0008 wrote:


FR24 knows when an aircraft is on the ground and reports it as 0 feet not if you were to take it as AGL the graph would say the aircraft went from 0 to 8000ft in less than 1 minute, completely impossible.


Actually to put this to bed, according to the raw data it went from 0 to 7200ft in less than 2 seconds. As someone else stated, we're looking at a smoothened plot, as the display is designed to cater to a flight of 1-17hrs.






Please see ADDIS elevation, I flew from there, windy, mountains around and it’s at 7200f ...
 
ClubCX
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Wed Mar 13, 2019 7:07 am

Could it be that the NTSB is under pressure to provide facts to diffuse this controversial situation?
 
ELBOB
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Wed Mar 13, 2019 7:11 am

PlanesNTrains wrote:
Boeing had a decision to make in 2011 - clean sheet or re-engine. They chose re-engine. Within "re-engine" they had complete flexibility to spend as much or as little as they wanted to develop what became the MAX. That decision is entirely on their shoulders and is completely independent of the NG development.


No, it is directly tied to the 737NG. The wingbox of the Max is the one designed for the 737-X in 1996, with the same MLG hinge points and bays. Within that constraint of undercarriage length the position of the engine could only be forward of or above the wing.

Why did they use the same wingbox and short MLG? Because Southwest wanted commonality *again*.
 
alyusuph
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Wed Mar 13, 2019 7:15 am

And now India is banning the Max from its Air Space https://bit.ly/2F8De4X
I am not an Airbus or Boeing fan, just an aircraft fan
 
PlanesNTrains
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Wed Mar 13, 2019 7:23 am

ELBOB wrote:
PlanesNTrains wrote:
Boeing had a decision to make in 2011 - clean sheet or re-engine. They chose re-engine. Within "re-engine" they had complete flexibility to spend as much or as little as they wanted to develop what became the MAX. That decision is entirely on their shoulders and is completely independent of the NG development.


No, it is directly tied to the 737NG. The wingbox of the Max is the one designed for the 737-X in 1996, with the same MLG hinge points and bays. Within that constraint of undercarriage length the position of the engine could only be forward of or above the wing.

Why did they use the same wingbox and short MLG? Because Southwest wanted commonality *again*.


This is insane. The assertion in this conversation was that the NG was a mistake - that WN pressured Boeing and Boeing should have told them to pound sand and go clean sheet. If you are saying that the NG was a mistake, unsafe, not a commercial success, or any other nonsense, then you have issues that I can't solve. If you are saying that Boeing's decision to make the MAX the way they made the MAX was a mistake, fine. But that mistake is entirely independent of them choosing to introduce the NG. There was nothing stopping them from doing nothing, doing the MAX as-is, doing a more refined MAX, doing a clean-sheet, picking their nose, etc. Blaming WN for pressuring Boeing back in 199X to create what became their most successful aircraft ever seems absolutely laughable.
-Dave


MAX’d out on MAX threads. If you are starting a thread, and it’s about the MAX - stop. There’s already a thread that covers it.
 
fearofflight
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Wed Mar 13, 2019 7:33 am

Keep it civil guys. Yes, we do not have sufficient information, only circumstancial evidence of 2 MAX crashing within the last 6 months. It is not clear whether MCAS is at fault. Check out these additional reports of 'surprise' nose down manoeuvres after engaging(!) the auto pilot https://apnews.com/0cd5389261f34b01a7cbdb1a12421e27 we need much more information, but from what we know it seems it was a bad idea to put these bigger engines on the old design and then fixing it with a 'software enhancement' . C'mon boeing..
 
Bobloblaw
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Wed Mar 13, 2019 7:35 am

sibibom wrote:
Bobloblaw wrote:
MillwallSean wrote:

Hmm, this is getting out of control.
If we cant trust national bodys and believe that corporate interests yield to much power, then present system of certification will break down and lead to alot of complications. Not sure I am to happy with that.
Also not to sure I understand anyones motive here. The Ethiopians choose where to send it. it is their investigation and their choice.
Why would the NTSB push to bring the boxes to the US should the Ethiopians want it done in the UK. the UK is as good as the NTSB so the rationale for this would give raise to a lot of unwarranted and unnecessary speculation. Whats hidden? Whos interests are protected?
And if that's the start or the cooperation between the assisting Americans and the lead agents from Ethiopia it doesn't bode well for the investigation.

Id say a lot of the blame for this can be placed squarely on the the FAA. They have been questioned, in regards to their independence, and that might be the issue here. A belief that there is a risk for bias should it be sent to the US.
However this is the American NTSB whom I haven't heard people question in regards to competence or bias. Anyway, if this becomes a trend it doesn't bode well for the neutrality and expertise that's expected from all the worlds investigating bodies.

Touch wood this is just the media making a hen out of a feather.

Why should the black boxes be analyzed in the UK?


Cos they are equally capable of investigating and its Ethiopian's prerogative. They are genuinely worried about being made a scapegoat of a biased investigation just like Lion Air was vilified publically even before the investigation has reached its conclusion.

There own no reason to indulge Ethiopia’s paranoia and have the black boxes evaluated in the UK.
 
sibibom
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Wed Mar 13, 2019 7:44 am

Bobloblaw wrote:
sibibom wrote:
Bobloblaw wrote:
Why should the black boxes be analyzed in the UK?


Cos they are equally capable of investigating and its Ethiopian's prerogative. They are genuinely worried about being made a scapegoat of a biased investigation just like Lion Air was vilified publically even before the investigation has reached its conclusion.

There own no reason to indulge Ethiopia’s paranoia and have the black boxes evaluated in the UK.


You do realise the world has changed. Bullying and intimidating by the US to protect its own interest will no longer work. Its China that leads the grounding and except Canada every other player with a stake has followed their lead.
 
Bobloblaw
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Wed Mar 13, 2019 7:48 am

sibibom wrote:
Bobloblaw wrote:
sibibom wrote:

Cos they are equally capable of investigating and its Ethiopian's prerogative. They are genuinely worried about being made a scapegoat of a biased investigation just like Lion Air was vilified publically even before the investigation has reached its conclusion.

There own no reason to indulge Ethiopia’s paranoia and have the black boxes evaluated in the UK.


You do realise the world has changed. Bullying and intimidating by the US to protect its own interest will no longer work. Its China that leads the grounding and except Canada every other player with a stake has followed their lead.

What do you mean the world has changed? It is not bullying and intimidation to refuse Ethiopia’s insistence that black boxes be evaluated in the U.K. but your unhinged reponse does begin to confirm my suspicion that some of the hysteria over the Max8 is just anti Americanism
 
Andy33
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Wed Mar 13, 2019 7:48 am

Bobloblaw wrote:
sibibom wrote:
Bobloblaw wrote:
Why should the black boxes be analyzed in the UK?


Cos they are equally capable of investigating and its Ethiopian's prerogative. They are genuinely worried about being made a scapegoat of a biased investigation just like Lion Air was vilified publically even before the investigation has reached its conclusion.

There own no reason to indulge Ethiopia’s paranoia and have the black boxes evaluated in the UK.

There's no "indulging" going on here. Ethiopia is a sovereign nation, and is automatically the lead in the investigation (crash on their territory, plane and airline on their registry) and is entirely entitled to subcontract any aspect of the investigation to whatever organisation it chooses. Nobody has the right to take that away from them.
The probablility of the downloads and analysis being done in Europe was raised on this thread about 20 hours ago, with the very sensible comment that having the lead investigators and the analysis team in approximately the same time zone (Ethiopia is UTC+3, UK is UTC - changing to UTC+1 in just over 2 weeks) so they could talk to each other without one or other staying up all night would aid the conclusion of the investigation.
 
rideforever
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Wed Mar 13, 2019 7:50 am

From Wikipedia 737 Max Engine Development:

In August 2011, Boeing had to choose between 66 in (168 cm) or 68 in (173 cm) fan diameters necessitating few landing gear changes to maintain a 17 in (43 cm) ground clearance beneath the new engines; Boeing Commercial Airplanes chief executive officer Jim Albaugh stated "with a bigger fan you get more efficiency because of the bypass ratio [but also] more weight and more drag", with more airframe changes.[49] The smaller Leap-1B engine will weigh less and have a lower frontal area but a lower bypass ratio leading to a higher thrust specific fuel consumption than the 78 in (200 cm) Leap-1A of the A320neo.
In November 2011, Boeing selected the larger fan diameter, necessitating a 6–8 in (150–200 mm) longer nose landing gear.[50][51]
In May 2012, Boeing further enlarged the fan to 69.4 in (176 cm) paired with a smaller engine core within minor design changes before the mid-2013 final configuration.

Article from May 2012 "Boeing tweaks engine for new 737 Max"
http://www.chinaaviationdaily.com/news/19/19335.html
 
navjotgill45
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Wed Mar 13, 2019 7:51 am

Starlionblue wrote:
navjotgill45 wrote:
Apologies if asked before, thread too longto check. I'm still confused as to why MCAS would even operate in an AoA disagree situation. Surely the certifiers would have considered a "faulty airpseed/AoA etc" situation? Would love to be enlightened on this by knowledgeble posters (pilots/mechanics etc.)?


The trick is knowing that the airspeed and/or AoA is faulty. This is notoriously hard for a system to know. If a system "believes" the sensor data to be correct, it will act accordingly.

The only way to mitigate the issue is with multiple redundant sensors, and even then unreliable airspeed situations are something aircrew need to be keenly aware of.


Forgive me, but as far as I know, in JT610 the captain's PFD was the faulty one, while the FO's PFD was accurate (please correct if wrong). Both can't be accurate, therefore one had to be incorrect. In this case wouldn't the logical step be deactivation of the MCAS so the pilots can figure out what is going on to rectify (or contain) the situation? Or is MCAS designed to only recieve data from the left-hand side AoA sensors while disregarding other data?

Thanks.
 
PlanesNTrains
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Wed Mar 13, 2019 7:56 am

Bobloblaw wrote:
sibibom wrote:
Bobloblaw wrote:
There own no reason to indulge Ethiopia’s paranoia and have the black boxes evaluated in the UK.


You do realise the world has changed. Bullying and intimidating by the US to protect its own interest will no longer work. Its China that leads the grounding and except Canada every other player with a stake has followed their lead.

What do you mean the world has changed? It is not bullying and intimidation to refuse Ethiopia’s insistence that black boxes be evaluated in the U.K. but your unhinged reponse does begin to confirm my suspicion that some of the hysteria over the Max8 is just anti Americanism


I'd think having the UK do it would just make things better all the way around. However, I agree with some of the anti-Americanism sentiment. In the end, we can all spin these things whichever way to match our worldview, but assuming that the US is the only one with interests in "managing" this investigation and grounding would be naive at best.
-Dave


MAX’d out on MAX threads. If you are starting a thread, and it’s about the MAX - stop. There’s already a thread that covers it.
 
vfw614
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Wed Mar 13, 2019 7:59 am

Bobloblaw wrote:
sibibom wrote:
Bobloblaw wrote:
Why should the black boxes be analyzed in the UK?


Cos they are equally capable of investigating and its Ethiopian's prerogative. They are genuinely worried about being made a scapegoat of a biased investigation just like Lion Air was vilified publically even before the investigation has reached its conclusion.

There own no reason to indulge Ethiopia’s paranoia and have the black boxes evaluated in the UK.


Ethiopia does not have the means to do it themselves so they need to subcontract the work. Given the fact that the US authorities have demonstrated a somewhat novel interpretation of the role and function of the FAA as an aviation safety authority (e.g. with regard to burden of proof and risk assessment procedures), if I were Ethiopia the last institution I would like to touch the data recorders would be an US agency like the NTSB. Besides, it is absolutely none of the US business how Ethiopia conducts the investigation of a crash on its territory involving an Ethiopian registered aircraft. Or does the German police investigate car crashes in the US involving German-built cars?
Last edited by vfw614 on Wed Mar 13, 2019 8:19 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
Bobloblaw
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Wed Mar 13, 2019 8:04 am

vfw614 wrote:
Bobloblaw wrote:
sibibom wrote:

Cos they are equally capable of investigating and its Ethiopian's prerogative. They are genuinely worried about being made a scapegoat of a biased investigation just like Lion Air was vilified publically even before the investigation has reached its conclusion.

There own no reason to indulge Ethiopia’s paranoia and have the black boxes evaluated in the UK.


Ethiopia does not have the means to do it themselves so they need to subcontract the work. Given the fact that the FAA has demonstrated a somewhat novel interpretation of the role and function of an aviation safety authority (e.g. with regard to burden of proof and risk assessment procedures), if I were Ethiopia the last institution I would like to touch the data recorders would be the US FAA. Besides, it is absolutely none of the US business how Ethiopia conducts the investigation of a crash on its territory involving an Ethiopian registered aircraft. Or does the German police investigate car crashes in the US involving German-built cars?

Ethiopia’s request is unprecedented. Why should precedent be changed?
 
PlanesNTrains
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Wed Mar 13, 2019 8:05 am

vfw614 wrote:
Bobloblaw wrote:
sibibom wrote:

Cos they are equally capable of investigating and its Ethiopian's prerogative. They are genuinely worried about being made a scapegoat of a biased investigation just like Lion Air was vilified publically even before the investigation has reached its conclusion.

There own no reason to indulge Ethiopia’s paranoia and have the black boxes evaluated in the UK.


Ethiopia does not have the means to do it themselves so they need to subcontract the work. Given the fact that the FAA has demonstrated a somewhat novel interpretation of the role and function of an aviation safety authority (e.g. with regard to burden of proof and risk assessment procedures), if I were Ethiopia the last institution I would like to touch the data recorders would be the US FAA. Besides, it is absolutely none of the US business how Ethiopia conducts the investigation of a crash on its territory involving an Ethiopian registered aircraft. Or does the German police investigate car crashes in the US involving German-built cars?


There's the FAA and there's the NTSB. Typically, IINM, the NTSB would be invited to observe the investigation. Can you clarify what role that the FAA plays vs the NTSB? When there's a crash, does the FAA participate in the investigation with the NTSB?
-Dave


MAX’d out on MAX threads. If you are starting a thread, and it’s about the MAX - stop. There’s already a thread that covers it.
 
sibibom
Posts: 359
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Wed Mar 13, 2019 8:16 am

PlanesNTrains wrote:
Bobloblaw wrote:
sibibom wrote:

You do realise the world has changed. Bullying and intimidating by the US to protect its own interest will no longer work. Its China that leads the grounding and except Canada every other player with a stake has followed their lead.

What do you mean the world has changed? It is not bullying and intimidation to refuse Ethiopia’s insistence that black boxes be evaluated in the U.K. but your unhinged reponse does begin to confirm my suspicion that some of the hysteria over the Max8 is just anti Americanism


I'd think having the UK do it would just make things better all the way around. However, I agree with some of the anti-Americanism sentiment. In the end, we can all spin these things whichever way to match our worldview, but assuming that the US is the only one with interests in "managing" this investigation and grounding would be naive at best.


I have no anti-American bias, rather you can blame me of an anti-China bias cos probably I am that. However, I am finding FAA's stance disregarding passenger safety when literally everyone else has taken safety first approach very biased. Boeing is single biggest exporter in the US, actions of FAA suggests protectionism. You are free to disagree, however, I am entitled my opinions based on actions I have seen so far, and there are many here who will agree (just as there are many who will disagree).
 
PlanesNTrains
Posts: 9527
Joined: Tue Feb 01, 2005 4:19 pm

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Wed Mar 13, 2019 8:23 am

sibibom wrote:
PlanesNTrains wrote:
Bobloblaw wrote:
What do you mean the world has changed? It is not bullying and intimidation to refuse Ethiopia’s insistence that black boxes be evaluated in the U.K. but your unhinged reponse does begin to confirm my suspicion that some of the hysteria over the Max8 is just anti Americanism


I'd think having the UK do it would just make things better all the way around. However, I agree with some of the anti-Americanism sentiment. In the end, we can all spin these things whichever way to match our worldview, but assuming that the US is the only one with interests in "managing" this investigation and grounding would be naive at best.


I have no anti-American bias, rather you can blame me of an anti-China bias cos probably I am that. However, I am finding FAA's stance disregarding passenger safety when literally everyone else has taken safety first approach very biased. Boeing is single biggest exporter in the US, actions of FAA suggests protectionism. You are free to disagree, however, I am entitled my opinions based on actions I have seen so far, and there are many here who will agree (just as there are many who will disagree).


I was replying to Bob's comments and not yours.

As far as your comments, I would take exception with the bolded portion above. Do you honestly believe that the FAA is not for passenger safety, and do you honestly believe that literally everyone else is acting on safety first? Have you considered that the FAA has actually reviewed the facts and decided that their position is correct, or that a variety of countries have grounded the MAX for fear of being called out as anti-safety (or simply because countries around them have made it impossible to fly them anyhow)?

It is so much more complex than yes or no, black or white. I have no doubt that the FAA is doing a bit of CYA. I also have no doubt that these much-vaunted safety-first countries are often acting out of their own interests and not fear of planes falling from the sky. That's life.
Last edited by PlanesNTrains on Wed Mar 13, 2019 8:28 am, edited 1 time in total.
-Dave


MAX’d out on MAX threads. If you are starting a thread, and it’s about the MAX - stop. There’s already a thread that covers it.
 
vfw614
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Wed Mar 13, 2019 8:29 am

PlanesNTrains wrote:
vfw614 wrote:
Bobloblaw wrote:
There own no reason to indulge Ethiopia’s paranoia and have the black boxes evaluated in the UK.


Ethiopia does not have the means to do it themselves so they need to subcontract the work. Given the fact that the FAA has demonstrated a somewhat novel interpretation of the role and function of an aviation safety authority (e.g. with regard to burden of proof and risk assessment procedures), if I were Ethiopia the last institution I would like to touch the data recorders would be the US FAA. Besides, it is absolutely none of the US business how Ethiopia conducts the investigation of a crash on its territory involving an Ethiopian registered aircraft. Or does the German police investigate car crashes in the US involving German-built cars?


There's the FAA and there's the NTSB. Typically, IINM, the NTSB would be invited to observe the investigation. Can you clarify what role that the FAA plays vs the NTSB? When there's a crash, does the FAA participate in the investigation with the NTSB?


I have clarified my post. As per the WSJ, "Washington" is making a push to have the NTSB investigate. Now, why would "Washington" try to influence the decision of a sovereign nation who should lead the investigation? And why should Ethiopia be inclined to entrust the investigation to a US state agency like the NTSB in the light of how the accident thus far has been handled by the US' aviation safety regulator FAA (which reminds of the old joke "What - one wrong-way driver? I see hundreds in front of me.")
 
SimonL
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Wed Mar 13, 2019 8:29 am

Have the plane crashed in Sweden the black boxes also would have been sent to England for analysis. It can be so simple that Ethiopia has an agreement with the UK to do the analysis in case of a crash..
 
PlanesNTrains
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Wed Mar 13, 2019 8:30 am

SimonL wrote:
Have the plane crashed in Sweden the black boxes also would have been sent to England for analysis. It can be so simple that Ethiopia has an agreement with the UK to do the analysis in case of a crash..


What's sad is we just need things to get moving. There isn't time for this back and forth nonsense - if Ethiopia wants it done in the UK, throw them on an A350 and get them there asap.
-Dave


MAX’d out on MAX threads. If you are starting a thread, and it’s about the MAX - stop. There’s already a thread that covers it.
 
PlanesNTrains
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Wed Mar 13, 2019 8:32 am

vfw614 wrote:
PlanesNTrains wrote:
vfw614 wrote:

Ethiopia does not have the means to do it themselves so they need to subcontract the work. Given the fact that the FAA has demonstrated a somewhat novel interpretation of the role and function of an aviation safety authority (e.g. with regard to burden of proof and risk assessment procedures), if I were Ethiopia the last institution I would like to touch the data recorders would be the US FAA. Besides, it is absolutely none of the US business how Ethiopia conducts the investigation of a crash on its territory involving an Ethiopian registered aircraft. Or does the German police investigate car crashes in the US involving German-built cars?


There's the FAA and there's the NTSB. Typically, IINM, the NTSB would be invited to observe the investigation. Can you clarify what role that the FAA plays vs the NTSB? When there's a crash, does the FAA participate in the investigation with the NTSB?


I have clarified my post. As per the WSJ, "Washington" is making a push to have the NTSB investigate. Now, why would "Washington" try to influence the decision of a sovereign nation who should lead the investigation? And why should Ethiopia be inclined to entrust the investigation to a US state agency like the NTSB in the light of how the accident thus far has been handled by the US' aviation safety regulator FAA (which reminds of the old joke "What - one wrong-way driver? I see hundreds in front of me.")


Because "Washington" is clearly going to look out for its best interests, and I would love for ET to get the black boxes on the next flight to London so we can get this show on the road.
-Dave


MAX’d out on MAX threads. If you are starting a thread, and it’s about the MAX - stop. There’s already a thread that covers it.
 
Atlwarrior
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Wed Mar 13, 2019 8:42 am

Of course Boeing will protect its interests. That is how pending litigation and product image works. I think it highly unfair and a great hasty generalization to make it an Anti- American arguement though since the aircraft is a global product. Furthermore, Boeing have friends in high places.
 
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scbriml
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Wed Mar 13, 2019 8:48 am

32andBelow wrote:
Small
Explosion that made the plane uncontrollable. It was at 1000ft. How big do you think the field would be?


We don't know how high ET302 was before it fell out of the sky since it was out of FR24 coverage.

Bobloblaw wrote:
Why should the black boxes be analyzed in the UK?


Why shouldn't they? Ethiopia is the lead investigator, it's perfectly within their remit to have the boxes analysed by a party of their chosing. The NTSB isn't the be all and end all of accident investigation.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
vfw614
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Wed Mar 13, 2019 8:49 am

I have no issues with Boeing protecting its interests. But there are numerous aspects of Boeing's crisis management thus far that makes the responsible department look like a troupe of amateurs that has excelled in throwing oil in the fire. And that is not exactly protecting Boeing's interests, but harming them.
 
WIederling
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Wed Mar 13, 2019 9:04 am

Bobloblaw wrote:
......... but your unhinged reponse does begin to confirm my suspicion that some of the hysteria over the Max8 is just anti Americanism

you made a typo, it is:
Anti _American Interventionism_

Most nations appear to be fed up with the US throwing their weight around.
Look up "blow back"
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blowback_ ... ligence%29
as applied in a more general term.
Murphy is an optimist
 
quentinc
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Wed Mar 13, 2019 9:08 am

The Bloomberg report says:
U.S. officials wanted to have the recorders sent to the National Transportation Safety Board on grounds that American government experts would provide the most reliable and accurate data downloads, according to the report. The U.S. hadn’t received a final decision as of late Tuesday, according to the Journal.


By now, you'd imagine both officials and journalists would be aware that the recorders were digital. The idea that only the American government can read a flight data recorder... Why would anyone even suggest such a thing?
 
Aviation737
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Wed Mar 13, 2019 9:26 am

Here comes the conspiracy theorist claiming that the NTSB, FAA or even Boeing is going to tamper the evidence... I can already see it. If the official report for both crashes doesn't put any blame on Boeing at all, some people are going to be piss and probably say something along the lines of how the investigators are paid by Boeing to cover up the whole thing...
 
vfw614
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Wed Mar 13, 2019 9:31 am

U.S. officials wanted to have the recorders sent to the National Transportation Safety Board on grounds that American government experts would provide the most reliable and accurate data downloads, according to the report. The U.S. hadn’t received a final decision as of late Tuesday, according to the Journal.


The British will be very pleased to hear that US officials regard them as unfit to download data, let alone cary out an investigation.

The U.S. hadn’t received a final decision as of late Tuesday, according to the Journal.


Decision as in "the US decides what Ethiopia has to do"?

My oh my, talk about a bull in a china shop.
 
Virtual737
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Wed Mar 13, 2019 9:31 am

Aviation737 wrote:
Here comes the conspiracy theorist claiming that the NTSB, FAA or even Boeing is going to tamper the evidence... I can already see it. If the official report for both crashes doesn't put any blame on Boeing at all, some people are going to be piss and probably say something along the lines of how the investigators are paid by Boeing to cover up the whole thing...


Having a competent 3rd party involved in the investigation would go a long way to dampen those conspiracy theories.
 
WIederling
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Wed Mar 13, 2019 9:42 am

Aviation737 wrote:
Here comes the conspiracy theorist claiming that the NTSB, FAA or even Boeing is going to tamper the evidence... I can already see it. If the official report for both crashes doesn't put any blame on Boeing at all, some people are going to be piss and probably say something along the lines of how the investigators are paid by Boeing to cover up the whole thing...


Easy to come by.
The investigations include all involved parties.
That includes representatives from the US via the manufacturer and certification authority.

Thus without some plan for a subterfuge the demand to have the US lead the investigation doesn't make much sense.

Ethiopia is in the lead and have free choosing to delegate.
Murphy is an optimist
 
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Spiderguy252
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Wed Mar 13, 2019 9:45 am

The likes of Southwest (and maybe RyanAir) have held the 737 program hostage for too long. We're seeing the dark side of free market economics with Boeing still prattling around the 737 in the 2020s at the behest of these carriers unwilling to spend the dime to look forward.

How many more incidents will it take to make this right?
Vahroone
 
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Lingon
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Wed Mar 13, 2019 9:48 am

NASBWI wrote:
In the second YouTube video posted just above (witness accounts), the gentleman is quoted as saying that “the nose went up” and then “the plane went side to side” before the “nose went down” and “tail went up”.

Without trying to speculate too much, and smoke notwithstanding: does anyone else feel that the airplane’s behavior (if proven accurate) is consistent with a stall? Usually, in an aerodynamic stall, one wing may stall before the other, causing the ‘dip’ that appears to have been described.


It sounds plausible to me too.

What about the following scenario ( I have no idea if it is unrealistic, I'm an engineer, not a pilot)

- Similar problems from start as the Lion Air case, pitch and power due to unreliable airspeed
- Retracting flaps getting nose down from MCAS, this crew knew what to do and used the cutout switches
- Flying pitch and power without MCAS, plane pitched up, they stalled and fell down and the altitude wasn't enough to recover.

Without the MCAS, would the aircraft pitch up fast enough to make this scenario plausible or is it just bonkers?
 
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keesje
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Wed Mar 13, 2019 9:55 am

Aviation737 wrote:
Here comes the conspiracy theorist claiming that the NTSB, FAA or even Boeing is going to tamper the evidence... I can already see it. If the official report for both crashes doesn't put any blame on Boeing at all, some people are going to be piss and probably say something along the lines of how the investigators are paid by Boeing to cover up the whole thing...


I think the Ethiopians can have a good reference in how the LionAir crash was handled. And then make a choice which authorities to involve. A party less close to the FAA and Boeing might add value to the process. And help prevent attention getting steered away from the investigation.

https://www.airliners.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1407217&start=2850#p21177955
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
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enzo011
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Wed Mar 13, 2019 10:11 am

The optics of saying the AAIB isn't fit to download the data from the recorders, or at least will not be able to do it as well, as the NTSB smacks of arrogance where egos should be left at the door. I could understand if Ethiopia was considering sending the recorders to Russia or China but this is the UK we are talking about.
 
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SomebodyInTLS
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Wed Mar 13, 2019 10:41 am

vfw614 wrote:
U.S. officials wanted to have the recorders sent to the National Transportation Safety Board on grounds that American government experts would provide the most reliable and accurate data downloads, according to the report. The U.S. hadn’t received a final decision as of late Tuesday, according to the Journal.


The British will be very pleased to hear that US officials regard them as unfit to download data, let alone cary out an investigation.

The U.S. hadn’t received a final decision as of late Tuesday, according to the Journal.


Decision as in "the US decides what Ethiopia has to do"?

My oh my, talk about a bull in a china shop.


Did you ever see Criminal Minds: Beyond Borders? My oh my... that got made so some people in the US must think like that.
"As with most things related to aircraft design, it's all about the trade-offs and much more nuanced than A.net likes to make out."
 
uta999
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Wed Mar 13, 2019 10:52 am

If MCAS is proven to be the probable cause, what is involved in removing it completely from all active 737MAX and future production models? Would it need re-certifying and its own type rating, thus further training?

There is no way to prove a simple software upgrade works or not, unless there is another crash.
Your computer just got better
 
Bongodog49
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Wed Mar 13, 2019 11:19 am

Bobloblaw wrote:
vfw614 wrote:
Bobloblaw wrote:
There own no reason to indulge Ethiopia’s paranoia and have the black boxes evaluated in the UK.


Ethiopia does not have the means to do it themselves so they need to subcontract the work. Given the fact that the FAA has demonstrated a somewhat novel interpretation of the role and function of an aviation safety authority (e.g. with regard to burden of proof and risk assessment procedures), if I were Ethiopia the last institution I would like to touch the data recorders would be the US FAA. Besides, it is absolutely none of the US business how Ethiopia conducts the investigation of a crash on its territory involving an Ethiopian registered aircraft. Or does the German police investigate car crashes in the US involving German-built cars?

Ethiopia’s request is unprecedented. Why should precedent be changed?


Firstly, it is not a "request" Ethiopia is a sovereign nation, the decision as to who leads the investigation is entirely in their hands. As to unprecedented, this will not by any means be the 1st time the investigation into a crash hasn't been conducted by Nation that built it.
 
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scbriml
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Wed Mar 13, 2019 11:36 am

Bobloblaw wrote:
Ethiopia’s request is unprecedented. Why should precedent be changed?


What on Earth makes you think it's unprecedented? It certainly isn't. :shakehead:
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
max999
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Wed Mar 13, 2019 12:02 pm

Bobloblaw wrote:
sibibom wrote:
Bobloblaw wrote:
Why should the black boxes be analyzed in the UK?


Cos they are equally capable of investigating and its Ethiopian's prerogative. They are genuinely worried about being made a scapegoat of a biased investigation just like Lion Air was vilified publically even before the investigation has reached its conclusion.

There own no reason to indulge Ethiopia’s paranoia and have the black boxes evaluated in the UK.


Perhaps if Boeing offered Ethiopian discounts for future purchases, then the US could convince them to send the black boxes to America. :rotfl: :dollarsign: :dollarsign: :dollarsign:
All the things I really like to do are either immoral, illegal, or fattening.
 
Bricktop
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Wed Mar 13, 2019 12:19 pm

Instead of getting into a urinating contest over who gets to look at the data, download it and share it already. Observers can watch the download. That will shut most people up. I say most, because there's a pathetic anti-American contingent here that will never be assuaged under any circumstances.

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