slider
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Wed Mar 13, 2019 12:23 pm

PlanesNTrains wrote:
downdata wrote:
Per Bloomberg: Ethiopia wanted to send the flight-data and cockpit-voice recorders to the UK AAIB instead of NTSB in the US
.


Makes sense to me, and probably the best decision for everybody.

hamiltondaniel wrote:
I'm going to officially proclaim myself the logic checker of this thread. Somebody needs to.


Nice knowing ya.

slider wrote:
trpmb6 wrote:


Furthermore, the market dictated the development of the MAX not the other way around. It's not like Boeing went out and said, here's the max, take it or leave it. They developed what the market wanted. The market didn't want to wait for a new single aisle aircraft and it didn't want to pay the sticker price of a new single aisle aircraft.


I utterly disagree. They capitulated to the "market" in the sense they gave in to WN when the NG was being developed in the first place. Boeing has a history of allowing far too much latitude in carriers' ordering options. When the NG was launched, they gave in to WN for their "need" to have type commonality, and the die was cast...and it shouldn't have been. As a consequence, design took a back seat to sales--globally. And that continues today because they perpetuated an aging airframe with new engines even then.

Now, the development costs for a modified variant are obviously much less, so we all understand Boeing's approach, but it remains questionable as to whether they ought to have made a clean sheet decision even then, even considering the monster development to do so. IF--and I say this cautiously--this ET302 accident is related to the MCAS system, there are some roots to follow back and that would be even more tragic. A bridge too far, Boeing. IF that's the case.

*Sidenote....has anyone found bag data for this airplane yet? Load shift? Unlikely but a thought.


To be blunt, this is bullshit. If you are going to claim that a decision a quarter century ago to develop a 737 derivative that became a massive commercial success with an impeccable safety record is somehow responsible for the crashes we are discussing, then I think you've lost perspective.

Boeing had a decision to make in 2011 - clean sheet or re-engine. They chose re-engine. Within "re-engine" they had complete flexibility to spend as much or as little as they wanted to develop what became the MAX. That decision is entirely on their shoulders and is completely independent of the NG development. Yes, had they gone clean-sheet in the 90s then we wouldn't be having this discussion for obvious reasons, but that's irrelevant to reality. Reality is Boeing had options and the MAX is what they chose in 2011.

To blame anything in our current discussion on Boeing capitulating to WN back in the early 90's is simply gratuitous and self-serving.


Competitive pressures absolutely led Boeing to not do a clean sheet design. Now, I don't blame them entirely here given the cost of doing such a thing. But it's completely reasonable to say that WN's massive launch order for the NG led Boeing down that path. It's not bullshit at all. They got caught with their pants down, made the best of it (and believe me, I love the 737NG, make no mistake), but subsequent industry pressures forced their hand, I'm convinced. Hence, the 739, and, now, the MAX. It's a compromised design.

And you're making a gigantic leap of illogic (and putting words in my mouth) if you're conflating "massive commercial success with an impeccable safety record" and these crashes. But events sometimes do unfold over the span of years from seeds planted in the past.
 
WIederling
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Wed Mar 13, 2019 12:27 pm

uta999 wrote:
If MCAS is proven to be the probable cause, what is involved in removing it completely from all active 737MAX and future production models? Would it need re-certifying and its own type rating, thus further training?

There is no way to prove a simple software upgrade works or not, unless there is another crash.


Data sanitation and increasing reliability of sensors _and_ working "fault detection".
MCAS in its imbecilic simplicity works as intended.
If it is an acceptable remedy for changed behavior of the MAX airframe is another question.

As I wrote before MCAS action is the path to hell but the entrance portal is some major cook up in data processing.
to wit: Changing AoA did not help
A range of other similar sensor issue reports have come out of the workworks after the second crash.
( US pilots and Chinese pilots that reported to their respective CA).
Why only now public? pilots must have accumulated some incidents before the Lion Air crash. gagged/demoted by FAA?
Murphy is an optimist
 
PixelPilot
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Wed Mar 13, 2019 12:33 pm

Aviation737 wrote:
Here comes the conspiracy theorist claiming that the NTSB, FAA or even Boeing is going to tamper the evidence... I can already see it. If the official report for both crashes doesn't put any blame on Boeing at all, some people are going to be piss and probably say something along the lines of how the investigators are paid by Boeing to cover up the whole thing...


lol that's how I am reading some responses.
Few haters here need serious life check.
 
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SheikhDjibouti
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Wed Mar 13, 2019 12:33 pm

Bricktop wrote:
Instead of getting into a urinating contest over who gets to look at the data, download it and share it already. Observers can watch the download. That will shut most people up. I say most, because there's a pathetic anti- pro-American contingent here that will never be assuaged under any circumstances.

Fixed it for ya. :checkmark:
Nothing to see here; move along please.
 
estorilm
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Wed Mar 13, 2019 12:34 pm

NASBWI wrote:
In the second YouTube video posted just above (witness accounts), the gentleman is quoted as saying that “the nose went up” and then “the plane went side to side” before the “nose went down” and “tail went up”.

Without trying to speculate too much, and smoke notwithstanding: does anyone else feel that the airplane’s behavior (if proven accurate) is consistent with a stall? Usually, in an aerodynamic stall, one wing may stall before the other, causing the ‘dip’ that appears to have been described.

The conflict in my thinking is that in most stall events, the nose remains high unless there’s enough altitude to drop the nose. Perhaps with over a thousand feet, the nose may have dropped in time to tragically nose-in? Kind of like the National incident? But I’m still left wondering about the high speed with which it impacted. If there’s little forward speed, the plane would have most likely hit the ground flat, like AF447. But with greater forward speed, why would a stall occur?

If true, that's exactly what I've been saying the last couple days. Not so much anything to do with MCAS, but perhaps the aircraft's questionable handling characteristics pre-stall which required MCAS in the first place.

But who knows, as most of us are aware - eyewitness accounts are notoriously inaccurate. With that being said, it is a rather unusually vivid account of what you'd expect an aircraft to do stall-wise, at least coming from a random bystander.
 
YoungDon
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Wed Mar 13, 2019 12:36 pm

Bobloblaw wrote:
sibibom wrote:
Bobloblaw wrote:
There own no reason to indulge Ethiopia’s paranoia and have the black boxes evaluated in the UK.


You do realise the world has changed. Bullying and intimidating by the US to protect its own interest will no longer work. Its China that leads the grounding and except Canada every other player with a stake has followed their lead.

What do you mean the world has changed? It is not bullying and intimidation to refuse Ethiopia’s insistence that black boxes be evaluated in the U.K. but your unhinged reponse does begin to confirm my suspicion that some of the hysteria over the Max8 is just anti Americanism


Please, that's just the same good ole boy jingoism we've seen creeping back over the past decade or so here in the US. Woe is us, and everyone's against us right?

If they want to have the Brits do the analysis, more power to them, it's their prerogative as a sovereign nation to do so. Not a big deal either way.
 
Bricktop
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Wed Mar 13, 2019 12:45 pm

SheikhDjibouti wrote:
Bricktop wrote:
Instead of getting into a urinating contest over who gets to look at the data, download it and share it already. Observers can watch the download. That will shut most people up. I say most, because there's a pathetic anti- pro-American contingent here that will never be assuaged under any circumstances.

Fixed it for ya. :checkmark:

If that's your only edit, we have a deal. Let's stop the BS and get the analysis done as quickly and transparently as possible. It's absurd that Lion Air's investigation is taking so long. Makes one wonder about what's going on there.
 
YoungDon
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Wed Mar 13, 2019 12:45 pm

WIederling wrote:
Bobloblaw wrote:
......... but your unhinged reponse does begin to confirm my suspicion that some of the hysteria over the Max8 is just anti Americanism

you made a typo, it is:
Anti _American Interventionism_

Most nations appear to be fed up with the US throwing their weight around.
Look up "blow back"
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blowback_ ... ligence%29
as applied in a more general term.


It's obvious, and many of my fellow Americans refuse to see that. There's an obvious attitude of But I'm used to seeing these types that think they're God, both in the cockpit and at the FAA, so the fact they're rearing their heads here playing the victim is unsurprising.

The NTSB does great work, but they're not the only folks in the world capable of competent aircraft investigation.
 
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trpmb6
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Wed Mar 13, 2019 12:50 pm

Speaking as an American it makes perfect sense to have the boxes read out in the UK. Why waste time shipping across the atlantic? NTSB can observe in the UK like they have done for many other accidents. Not unprecedented at all and I think the WSJ report is overblown and possibly a misinterpretation of what is being said from up above, ie: make sure we have a team available to observe the read out. Though, I also don't find it odd that the NTSB would want to assist/take lead in any investigation either.
Last edited by trpmb6 on Wed Mar 13, 2019 12:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
FlapsOne
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Wed Mar 13, 2019 12:52 pm

Spiderguy252 wrote:
The likes of Southwest (and maybe RyanAir) have held the 737 program hostage for too long. We're seeing the dark side of free market economics with Boeing still prattling around the 737 in the 2020s at the behest of these carriers unwilling to spend the dime to look forward.

How many more incidents will it take to make this right?


I see. Interesting how dozens have ordered them, Southwest don’t have that many and Ryanair have the grand total of 0 MAX aircraft. Free market economics are leading product innovation in industries throughout the globe. Tell me comrade, how would the People’s 737 look like if it wasn’t for the likes of Southwest?
 
raffy
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Wed Mar 13, 2019 1:00 pm

I am wondering about the MCAS (Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System) on the 737 MAX planes. Its purpose, from what I've read on it so far, is to automatically pitch the nose of the aircraft forward if it detects that the plane's angle of attack is too high such that it is about to stall. IMO, it would be very unnerving to me as a pilot (and I do have a private pilot's license, so I do know a little about flying) to have the airplane fight you while applying control pressure. It seems that the CG of the MAX airplanes is a bit farther forward than previous 737 generations, which means that the plane may have a tendency to fly at a higher angle of attack and be more prone to stall than the previous versions. However, a pilot should be trained to compensate for this when learning to fly and getting certified in the 737 MAX, and not need a computerized automatic system to prevent him from doing something stupid. Just my opinion - maybe those of you who are airline transport pilots and have flown this plane can shed more light on this.

I wouldn't be surprised if they find that the MCAS played a significant role in one, if not both, of these recent 737 MAX crashes.
 
Bricktop
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Wed Mar 13, 2019 1:00 pm

WIederling wrote:
Bobloblaw wrote:
......... but your unhinged reponse does begin to confirm my suspicion that some of the hysteria over the Max8 is just anti Americanism

you made a typo, it is:
Anti _American Interventionism_

Most nations appear to be fed up with the US throwing their weight around.
Look up "blow back"
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blowback_ ... ligence%29
as applied in a more general term.

The prosecution presents Exhibit A, a serial offender, Your Honor . Confusing leadership with throwing their weight around. Some people prefer debating societies to taking action. The American "get her done" attitude is offensive to these passive types. And then some are Koenige of conspiracy theories as one sees frequently here. Let the Brits have the boxes, let them download the data, and let's move on it. And until that's done, I am out of this thread. All the armchair bloviating and finger pointing makes for a terribly unedifying experience.
 
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PW100
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Wed Mar 13, 2019 1:03 pm

7BOEING7 wrote:
If the Chinese or anybody were concerned about all these supposed issues the data should have been downloaded and sent to the manfacturer/regulatory agency. Facts and data not rumor.

And what makes you believe that they did not do just that . . .?

I see similar type reports (Occurrence Reporting - from reportable incidents) from my own company to both OEM and regulators, but (luckily) have not seen even one end up on the internet. So the FACT that we do not see them on the internet or in the media, does not mean they do not exist. Like you said, facts and data not rumour.
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musicrab
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Wed Mar 13, 2019 1:05 pm

Looks like another thread is needed "Where should black box recorders be sent to after an accident". I really hope they're not still sitting on a shelf gathering dust.
 
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PW100
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Wed Mar 13, 2019 1:06 pm

LTC8K6 wrote:
maui19 wrote:
There is something that has been nagging at me about both these crashes. In both cases, the pilots were struggling with the aricraft, but did seem to be overcoming the problem (MCAS) as shown by their continuing to climb, albeit haltingly. But at the end, both planes encountered something that caused them to nosedive. I feel like this is a big piece of the puzzle is yet to be identified. Perhaps the final problem occurs when they try to turn the AC to return to the airport. I think there's more to this than just MCAS and a bad sensor. But who knows.


ET302 only managed to gain about 1,000 feet, so it didn't climb much.


The FR24 data cuts out well before the crash. Therefore we have no indication on the height reached during the short flight. It appears the flight did not reach more than 1000 ft in the initial 3 minutes of flight, but I have not seen any data for the last 3 minutes of flight. Do you have that data?
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SomebodyInTLS
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Wed Mar 13, 2019 1:07 pm

Bobloblaw wrote:
It is not bullying and intimidation to refuse Ethiopia’s insistence that black boxes be evaluated in the U.K.


And there in that single sentence - irrefutable proof of your entitled jingoism plain for all to see!

You have absolutely no right to refuse anything since they have no obligation to ask your permission. It's their business, not yours.
"As with most things related to aircraft design, it's all about the trade-offs and much more nuanced than A.net likes to make out."
 
estorilm
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Wed Mar 13, 2019 1:08 pm

I kinda agree with sending this to the UK. Normally it wouldn't matter, but with this being a brand new aircraft which was recently certified by the FAA (granted, also EASA) there's clearly something to hide if there's even the slightest connection between these two crashes. For me, that includes an MCAS-related incident, as well as an incident where design changes ie. movement of the engines contributed to a difficult stall recovery or unusually poor / dangerous stall characteristics. Either way you slice it, that looks bad for a few folks over here unfortunately.

A contributing factor here is the fact that US operators (as well as Canada, who have stated they're going to defer to the US/FAA) are the only ones still flying the plane and it seems the FAA wants to make sure that doesn't change. That tends to draw a more vivid line in the sand, if you will.
 
VeeCee
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Wed Mar 13, 2019 1:22 pm

trpmb6 wrote:
Speaking as an American it makes perfect sense to have the boxes read out in the UK. Why waste time shipping across the atlantic? NTSB can observe in the UK like they have done for many other accidents. Not unprecedented at all and I think the WSJ report is overblown and possibly a misinterpretation of what is being said from up above, ie: make sure we have a team available to observe the read out. Though, I also don't find it odd that the NTSB would want to assist/take lead in any investigation either.


Honestly it's the best for Boeing, the NTSB and the FAA. It's also a canny move by Ethiopia. Let's say the NTSB takes the lead and concludes that it was entirely pilot error. There is still the lingering doubt among other countries and carriers that they were influenced by Boeing. And frankly, I think they'd have a hard time convincing their own citizens that it was an impartial investigation. Let's not forget that our current administration considers Ethiopia a "shit hole country." You can't honestly tell me that some people in our government wouldn't absolutely put Boeing profit over a few dozen dead Africans.

NTSB has strong ties with the AAIB and will probably be involved in every step. Boeing gets an investigation that will be believed whichever way it goes, and the FAA gets the same thing.
 
cledaybuck
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Wed Mar 13, 2019 1:25 pm

SomebodyInTLS wrote:
It's their business, not yours.
This attitude sucks too. The authorities from multiple counties/agencies need to be working cooperatively to get answers as soon as possible. It is everybody's business.
As we celebrate mediocrity, all the boys upstairs want to see, how much you'll pay for what you used to get for free.
 
cledaybuck
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Wed Mar 13, 2019 1:30 pm

VeeCee wrote:
trpmb6 wrote:
Speaking as an American it makes perfect sense to have the boxes read out in the UK. Why waste time shipping across the atlantic? NTSB can observe in the UK like they have done for many other accidents. Not unprecedented at all and I think the WSJ report is overblown and possibly a misinterpretation of what is being said from up above, ie: make sure we have a team available to observe the read out. Though, I also don't find it odd that the NTSB would want to assist/take lead in any investigation either.


Honestly it's the best for Boeing, the NTSB and the FAA. It's also a canny move by Ethiopia. Let's say the NTSB takes the lead and concludes that it was entirely pilot error. There is still the lingering doubt among other countries and carriers that they were influenced by Boeing. And frankly, I think they'd have a hard time convincing their own citizens that it was an impartial investigation. Let's not forget that our current administration considers Ethiopia a "shit hole country." You can't honestly tell me that some people in our government wouldn't absolutely put Boeing profit over a few dozen dead Africans.

NTSB has strong ties with the AAIB and will probably be involved in every step. Boeing gets an investigation that will be believed whichever way it goes, and the FAA gets the same thing.
I have absolutely no qualms with taking what the NTSB says at face value. I think they have proven themselves over the years to be a reputable agency for safety. Of course, the NTSB has no regulatory authority. I wonder if the max would already be grounded in the US if the NTSB was making decisions instead of the FAA?
As we celebrate mediocrity, all the boys upstairs want to see, how much you'll pay for what you used to get for free.
 
VeeCee
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Wed Mar 13, 2019 1:37 pm

cledaybuck wrote:
VeeCee wrote:
trpmb6 wrote:
Speaking as an American it makes perfect sense to have the boxes read out in the UK. Why waste time shipping across the atlantic? NTSB can observe in the UK like they have done for many other accidents. Not unprecedented at all and I think the WSJ report is overblown and possibly a misinterpretation of what is being said from up above, ie: make sure we have a team available to observe the read out. Though, I also don't find it odd that the NTSB would want to assist/take lead in any investigation either.


Honestly it's the best for Boeing, the NTSB and the FAA. It's also a canny move by Ethiopia. Let's say the NTSB takes the lead and concludes that it was entirely pilot error. There is still the lingering doubt among other countries and carriers that they were influenced by Boeing. And frankly, I think they'd have a hard time convincing their own citizens that it was an impartial investigation. Let's not forget that our current administration considers Ethiopia a "shit hole country." You can't honestly tell me that some people in our government wouldn't absolutely put Boeing profit over a few dozen dead Africans.

NTSB has strong ties with the AAIB and will probably be involved in every step. Boeing gets an investigation that will be believed whichever way it goes, and the FAA gets the same thing.
I have absolutely no qualms with taking what the NTSB says at face value. I think they have proven themselves over the years to be a reputable agency for safety. Of course, the NTSB has no regulatory authority. I wonder if the max would already be grounded in the US if the NTSB was making decisions instead of the FAA?


I have no problems with the NTSB either. But perception and politics matter, and this is hardly the first time it's been a consideration.

It's a good question though about the FAA. And I wonder if it's short sighted. There are,what, 70ish 737Max operating in the US? Barely a blip on operations. But grounding them goes against their mandate to promote the development of encouraging American civil aeronautics businesses. If indeed it's a design problem, their future decisions will always be questioned as subservience to industry.
 
slider
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Wed Mar 13, 2019 1:39 pm

PlanesNTrains wrote:
ELBOB wrote:
PlanesNTrains wrote:
Boeing had a decision to make in 2011 - clean sheet or re-engine. They chose re-engine. Within "re-engine" they had complete flexibility to spend as much or as little as they wanted to develop what became the MAX. That decision is entirely on their shoulders and is completely independent of the NG development.


No, it is directly tied to the 737NG. The wingbox of the Max is the one designed for the 737-X in 1996, with the same MLG hinge points and bays. Within that constraint of undercarriage length the position of the engine could only be forward of or above the wing.

Why did they use the same wingbox and short MLG? Because Southwest wanted commonality *again*.


This is insane. The assertion in this conversation was that the NG was a mistake - that WN pressured Boeing and Boeing should have told them to pound sand and go clean sheet. If you are saying that the NG was a mistake, unsafe, not a commercial success, or any other nonsense, then you have issues that I can't solve. If you are saying that Boeing's decision to make the MAX the way they made the MAX was a mistake, fine. But that mistake is entirely independent of them choosing to introduce the NG. There was nothing stopping them from doing nothing, doing the MAX as-is, doing a more refined MAX, doing a clean-sheet, picking their nose, etc. Blaming WN for pressuring Boeing back in 199X to create what became their most successful aircraft ever seems absolutely laughable.


One more comment on this. Your haughty dismissal of this is actually quite funny. It's common knowledge WN insisted on commonality. One such minor but important example? The famous L1 door. Boeing had a slate of improvements lined up for the NG, among them improving and changing the L1 door mechanism from the ancient rotating gate pushrod to something more akin to the Airbus design...one driver? Mechanical simplicity and the fact that airline employees were getting OJIs from that twisting motion, a terribly unergonomic design. WN scotched that completely. The fact Boeing permitted that to happen, and a proliferation of a monstrously large degree of buyer customization, really clouded things for them in the minds of many. Fewer options. And some of that history is how the MAX ultimately became a variant and derivative.
 
pyates2104
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Wed Mar 13, 2019 1:42 pm

Unfortunately, this thread appears to have gotten political very quickly... The NTSB itself I believe is beyond reproach and will carry out a thorough, unbiased investigation, the NTSB is one of only a handful of such authorities to be capable of doing so... in my humble opinion. The FAA is responsible for implementing safety regulations So far as I'm aware, we have no direct evidence that the crash was caused by an MCAS failure, we can surmise, probably correctly that the aircraft stalled and the crew failed to recover. Lack of crew training or crew error is probably a contributing factor if not the primary one. Now MCAS is definitely a suspect in the investigation and I'm sure it will be looked at, however even if the MCAS system failed AND the crew was not aware of how it operated, they should still have recovered from the situation by carrying out a runaway trim procedure which I believe is a memory checklist. As highlighted in numerous accidents, there is usually more that one cause for an accident and unfortunately human flight crew error accounts for around 80%. The software update announced by Boeing was meant to further enhance the system and limit the possibility of it CONTRIBUTING to an accident. The lack of experience (notice I don't say hours) of some airliner pilots in dealing with emergencies and actually flying the aircraft is, in my opinion, frightening and has been exaggerated by poor pilot training and certification in some regions.

Bottom line is we don't know yet what caused this accident, there are no proven grounds to ground the fleet (unless more info is available we don't know about) and countries have acted in a cautious way when grounding the type. I'm no Boeing fanboy, but I do feel until we have the facts, we should not rush to judgement.
 
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PW100
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Wed Mar 13, 2019 1:43 pm

vfw614 wrote:
Ethiopia does not have the means to do it themselves so they need to subcontract the work. Given the fact that the US authorities have demonstrated a somewhat novel interpretation of the role and function of the FAA as an aviation safety authority (e.g. with regard to burden of proof and risk assessment procedures), if I were Ethiopia the last institution I would like to touch the data recorders would be an US agency like the NTSB. Besides, it is absolutely none of the US business how Ethiopia conducts the investigation of a crash on its territory involving an Ethiopian registered aircraft. Or does the German police investigate car crashes in the US involving German-built cars?


While it's true that here remains question marks (even in the USA) over the relationship between FAA and industry (Boeing), NTSB independence is not at question. It is important to understand the field of authority of FAA and NTSB.
Immigration officer: "What's the purpose of your visit to the USA?" Spotter: "Shooting airliners with my Canon!"
 
lying07
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Wed Mar 13, 2019 1:51 pm

Is it possible that the reason there was fire in the tail, is because MCAS is trying to push the nose down while the pilot is trying to push it up, and the consistent, extreme opposite-direction motions cause enough friction via the elevator in the tail to cause the fire?
 
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PW100
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Wed Mar 13, 2019 1:58 pm

VeeCee wrote:
trpmb6 wrote:
Speaking as an American it makes perfect sense to have the boxes read out in the UK. Why waste time shipping across the atlantic? NTSB can observe in the UK like they have done for many other accidents. Not unprecedented at all and I think the WSJ report is overblown and possibly a misinterpretation of what is being said from up above, ie: make sure we have a team available to observe the read out. Though, I also don't find it odd that the NTSB would want to assist/take lead in any investigation either.


Honestly it's the best for Boeing, the NTSB and the FAA. It's also a canny move by Ethiopia. Let's say the NTSB takes the lead and concludes that it was entirely pilot error. There is still the lingering doubt among other countries and carriers that they were influenced by Boeing. And frankly, I think they'd have a hard time convincing their own citizens that it was an impartial investigation. Let's not forget that our current administration considers Ethiopia a "shit hole country." You can't honestly tell me that some people in our government wouldn't absolutely put Boeing profit over a few dozen dead Africans.

NTSB has strong ties with the AAIB and will probably be involved in every step. Boeing gets an investigation that will be believed whichever way it goes, and the FAA gets the same thing.


Maybe I'm reading this wrong, but it is my understanding that Ethiopia is not outsourcing the investigation itself, just the download of the FDR (and CVR) memory modules.
Immigration officer: "What's the purpose of your visit to the USA?" Spotter: "Shooting airliners with my Canon!"
 
osiris30
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Wed Mar 13, 2019 1:59 pm

raffy wrote:
I am wondering about the MCAS (Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System) on the 737 MAX planes. Its purpose, from what I've read on it so far, is to automatically pitch the nose of the aircraft forward if it detects that the plane's angle of attack is too high such that it is about to stall. IMO, it would be very unnerving to me as a pilot (and I do have a private pilot's license, so I do know a little about flying) to have the airplane fight you while applying control pressure. It seems that the CG of the MAX airplanes is a bit farther forward than previous 737 generations, which means that the plane may have a tendency to fly at a higher angle of attack and be more prone to stall than the previous versions. However, a pilot should be trained to compensate for this when learning to fly and getting certified in the 737 MAX, and not need a computerized automatic system to prevent him from doing something stupid. Just my opinion - maybe those of you who are airline transport pilots and have flown this plane can shed more light on this.

I wouldn't be surprised if they find that the MCAS played a significant role in one, if not both, of these recent 737 MAX crashes.


Better never fly any Airbus aircraft after the 310 then because as a pilot you would find it unnerving when the aircraft applies protections and fights your inputs. Alpha protection is NOT new in the industry:. Every Airbus after the 310 has had it. The max has it, the 787 has it, I believe the 777 have it and maybe the 764 (not sure there). The c series has it and so do the ejets iirc.

In short EVERY aircraft made today has stall protection automation. And it has saved more lives than it has ever cost I am quite sure
I don't care what you think of my opinion. It's my opinion, so have a nice day :)
 
felipekk
Posts: 13
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Wed Mar 13, 2019 2:01 pm

Lingon wrote:
What about the following scenario ( I have no idea if it is unrealistic, I'm an engineer, not a pilot)

- Similar problems from start as the Lion Air case, pitch and power due to unreliable airspeed
- Retracting flaps getting nose down from MCAS, this crew knew what to do and used the cutout switches
- Flying pitch and power without MCAS, plane pitched up, they stalled and fell down and the altitude wasn't enough to recover.

Without the MCAS, would the aircraft pitch up fast enough to make this scenario plausible or is it just bonkers?


I was thinking something similar. The last step could also be some other difficult-to-recover-scenario created by another system that is disabled by the cutout switch (if the switch disables other systems... perhaps STS?)
 
Trin
Posts: 167
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Wed Mar 13, 2019 2:03 pm

Personally, I think it is in everyone's best interests if the black boxes are taken to the NEAREST lab capable of reading them. That certainly wouldn't be on the North American continent. These devices need to be downloaded immediately and the data disseminated immediately for the health of the flying public.

However (and this may threaten me with the Ban Hammer, but seeing as plenty others have chimed in on it.....) I, personally, think that shipping them off to the US would be a mistake currently. Everything around this entire incident is becoming HYPER politicized. Hell - Trump has jumped on the bandwagon and due to that the CEO of Boeing felt the need to initiate a phonecall to him in person yesterday. US Senators spent yesterday immediately calling for all MAXs to be grounded in congress. Americans (and hopefully others) for sure would complain if an Airbus crash's data recorders were sent right back to Airbus' home country to be handled, downloaded and picked apart by the handful of conglomerates that basically own, certify and employ Airbus. It is no different with the EA crash and the Boeing data recorders.

More widely than just in the United States, the world as a whole right now has a rancorous problem with Big Money and conglomerates owning far too many processes that SHOULD be left to impartial groups. It doesn't matter if you are talking aviation, education, hotel management, security services, healthcare.........far too many of the bodies that we BELIEVE we should be able to rely on to be impartial and pragmatic in their approach to issues end up actually being in the pockets of some suit who answers to some >insert your Head of State here< person/monarch/president/dictator.

And before I get flamed for being a tinfoil-hat-wearing-screaming-liberal-millennial-mad-vegetarian-on-a-bicycle, I am in my late 30s, a dual citizen of two different countries on two different continents, and not involved in any way in politics or the aviation industry.

Trin
 
PlanesNTrains
Posts: 9526
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Wed Mar 13, 2019 2:06 pm

slider wrote:
PlanesNTrains wrote:
ELBOB wrote:

No, it is directly tied to the 737NG. The wingbox of the Max is the one designed for the 737-X in 1996, with the same MLG hinge points and bays. Within that constraint of undercarriage length the position of the engine could only be forward of or above the wing.

Why did they use the same wingbox and short MLG? Because Southwest wanted commonality *again*.


This is insane. The assertion in this conversation was that the NG was a mistake - that WN pressured Boeing and Boeing should have told them to pound sand and go clean sheet. If you are saying that the NG was a mistake, unsafe, not a commercial success, or any other nonsense, then you have issues that I can't solve. If you are saying that Boeing's decision to make the MAX the way they made the MAX was a mistake, fine. But that mistake is entirely independent of them choosing to introduce the NG. There was nothing stopping them from doing nothing, doing the MAX as-is, doing a more refined MAX, doing a clean-sheet, picking their nose, etc. Blaming WN for pressuring Boeing back in 199X to create what became their most successful aircraft ever seems absolutely laughable.


One more comment on this. Your haughty dismissal of this is actually quite funny. It's common knowledge WN insisted on commonality. One such minor but important example? The famous L1 door. Boeing had a slate of improvements lined up for the NG, among them improving and changing the L1 door mechanism from the ancient rotating gate pushrod to something more akin to the Airbus design...one driver? Mechanical simplicity and the fact that airline employees were getting OJIs from that twisting motion, a terribly unergonomic design. WN scotched that completely. The fact Boeing permitted that to happen, and a proliferation of a monstrously large degree of buyer customization, really clouded things for them in the minds of many. Fewer options. And some of that history is how the MAX ultimately became a variant and derivative.


I’m not arguing about WN’s involvement in the NG. I’m saying that Boeing CHOSE to build the MAX as-is versus any other version or option they could have. That they CHOSE to move forward with the NG-limited MAX versus any other option (which likely would have inches into re-certification) is on them. Blaming decisions made decades earlier that proved wildly successful for that generation’s aircraft is a contorted way of blaming WN for a disaster in Ethiopia.
-Dave


MAX’d out on MAX threads. If you are starting a thread, and it’s about the MAX - stop. There’s already a thread that covers it.
 
osiris30
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Wed Mar 13, 2019 2:10 pm

estorilm wrote:
I kinda agree with sending this to the UK. Normally it wouldn't matter, but with this being a brand new aircraft which was recently certified by the FAA (granted, also EASA) there's clearly something to hide if there's even the slightest connection between these two crashes. For me, that includes an MCAS-related incident, as well as an incident where design changes ie. movement of the engines contributed to a difficult stall recovery or unusually poor / dangerous stall characteristics. Either way you slice it, that looks bad for a few folks over here unfortunately.

A contributing factor here is the fact that US operators (as well as Canada, who have stated they're going to defer to the US/FAA) are the only ones still flying the plane and it seems the FAA wants to make sure that doesn't change. That tends to draw a more vivid line in the sand, if you will.


No issues boxes going to the UK. So long as they make sure the people touching that have all the right bits and bobs (I only say that because I don't know the make and model of the FDR in max. Don't want a delay getting equipment).

That said please do not conflate the NTSB and FAA. To my mind the NTSB is above all the bullshit. I can understand why Ethiopian wants the boxes sent to the UK for local optics. But the industry has never really had an issue with the NTSB or AAIB. Both are very trustworthy.

Frankly so are the FAA and EASA (when it comes to certifying aircraft). The proof is in the pudding of decades of forward progress on air safety.

What I am curious about now is:. If the FDR and CVR show this wasn't a fault with the type, who are the conspiracy theorist going to blame now.
I don't care what you think of my opinion. It's my opinion, so have a nice day :)
 
PlanesNTrains
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Wed Mar 13, 2019 2:17 pm

slider wrote:
PlanesNTrains wrote:
downdata wrote:
Per Bloomberg: Ethiopia wanted to send the flight-data and cockpit-voice recorders to the UK AAIB instead of NTSB in the US
.


Makes sense to me, and probably the best decision for everybody.

hamiltondaniel wrote:
I'm going to officially proclaim myself the logic checker of this thread. Somebody needs to.


Nice knowing ya.

slider wrote:

I utterly disagree. They capitulated to the "market" in the sense they gave in to WN when the NG was being developed in the first place. Boeing has a history of allowing far too much latitude in carriers' ordering options. When the NG was launched, they gave in to WN for their "need" to have type commonality, and the die was cast...and it shouldn't have been. As a consequence, design took a back seat to sales--globally. And that continues today because they perpetuated an aging airframe with new engines even then.

Now, the development costs for a modified variant are obviously much less, so we all understand Boeing's approach, but it remains questionable as to whether they ought to have made a clean sheet decision even then, even considering the monster development to do so. IF--and I say this cautiously--this ET302 accident is related to the MCAS system, there are some roots to follow back and that would be even more tragic. A bridge too far, Boeing. IF that's the case.

*Sidenote....has anyone found bag data for this airplane yet? Load shift? Unlikely but a thought.


To be blunt, this is bullshit. If you are going to claim that a decision a quarter century ago to develop a 737 derivative that became a massive commercial success with an impeccable safety record is somehow responsible for the crashes we are discussing, then I think you've lost perspective.

Boeing had a decision to make in 2011 - clean sheet or re-engine. They chose re-engine. Within "re-engine" they had complete flexibility to spend as much or as little as they wanted to develop what became the MAX. That decision is entirely on their shoulders and is completely independent of the NG development. Yes, had they gone clean-sheet in the 90s then we wouldn't be having this discussion for obvious reasons, but that's irrelevant to reality. Reality is Boeing had options and the MAX is what they chose in 2011.

To blame anything in our current discussion on Boeing capitulating to WN back in the early 90's is simply gratuitous and self-serving.


Competitive pressures absolutely led Boeing to not do a clean sheet design. Now, I don't blame them entirely here given the cost of doing such a thing. But it's completely reasonable to say that WN's massive launch order for the NG led Boeing down that path. It's not bullshit at all. They got caught with their pants down, made the best of it (and believe me, I love the 737NG, make no mistake), but subsequent industry pressures forced their hand, I'm convinced. Hence, the 739, and, now, the MAX. It's a compromised design.

And you're making a gigantic leap of illogic (and putting words in my mouth) if you're conflating "massive commercial success with an impeccable safety record" and these crashes. But events sometimes do unfold over the span of years from seeds planted in the past.


I’m giving credit to Boeing for making a financially rewarding decision in the 90’s when they likely had no idea they’d still be churning these things out into the 2030’s.

I’m laying Blame on Boeing for choosing to design the MAX versus [other options].
-Dave


MAX’d out on MAX threads. If you are starting a thread, and it’s about the MAX - stop. There’s already a thread that covers it.
 
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scbriml
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Wed Mar 13, 2019 2:23 pm

Bobloblaw wrote:
It is not bullying and intimidation to refuse Ethiopia’s insistence that black boxes be evaluated in the U.K.


It's not anyone's right to refuse Ethiopia's decision as to where they want the boxes analysed. It's their choice, nobody else's. Stop digging, man.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
mrbots
Posts: 45
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Wed Mar 13, 2019 2:35 pm

I think everyone is reading too much in to the arguing over where to send the boxes. I believe the location to send the CVR and FDR is just being sensationalized by the news for clicks (like seemingly all news in the US). I can't see it being unprecedented and the NTSB and UK's agency have to work together regularly.

Also, people keep repeating it, but you basically have to discount whatever a person says they saw. I've been involved in an accident investigation with several eye witnesses (not at all related to aircraft though) and the best thing to do in an accident where there is physical data (a crashed plane, data boxes, etc.) is to get their statements and file them, then come back at the end and see if any of them were close. Witnesses generally aren't lying or being deceitful but the human brain just isn't good at comprehending and storing what's happening in unfamiliar situations. From my investigation for example, one witness said they heard a loud bang, another said it was eerily quiet. Even people that overheard someone say what happened over the radio clearly didn't comprehend what they were hearing. Everyone basically reiterated: "(A building) fell down? What do you mean (a building) fell down?"
 
uta999
Posts: 753
Joined: Mon Jun 14, 2010 11:10 am

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Wed Mar 13, 2019 2:38 pm

What's involved in 'ditching' MCAS altogether? Change of CoG, new tail, rear fuselage plug, rear fuel tank?
Your computer just got better
 
GalaxyFlyer
Posts: 3931
Joined: Fri Jan 01, 2016 4:44 am

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Wed Mar 13, 2019 2:39 pm

slider wrote:
trpmb6 wrote:
PlanesNTrains wrote:

I'm not a big fan of the MAX but how do you fault Boeing/WN for the NG when it was an incredible market success? Are you saying it would have been even more successful and profitable had they done a clean sheet back in the 90's?

With the MAX, it is what it is. Aside from what we know about the MCAS system, it doesn't seem to be an abject failure - just not the best.



Furthermore, the market dictated the development of the MAX not the other way around. It's not like Boeing went out and said, here's the max, take it or leave it. They developed what the market wanted. The market didn't want to wait for a new single aisle aircraft and it didn't want to pay the sticker price of a new single aisle aircraft.


I utterly disagree. They capitulated to the "market" in the sense they gave in to WN when the NG was being developed in the first place. Boeing has a history of allowing far too much latitude in carriers' ordering options. When the NG was launched, they gave in to WN for their "need" to have type commonality, and the die was cast...and it shouldn't have been. As a consequence, design took a back seat to sales--globally. And that continues today because they perpetuated an aging airframe with new engines even then.

Now, the development costs for a modified variant are obviously much less, so we all understand Boeing's approach, but it remains questionable as to whether they ought to have made a clean sheet decision even then, even considering the monster development to do so. IF--and I say this cautiously--this ET302 accident is related to the MCAS system, there are some roots to follow back and that would be even more tragic. A bridge too far, Boeing. IF that's the case.

*Sidenote....has anyone found bag data for this airplane yet? Load shift? Unlikely but a thought.


All good, EXCEPT, the FAA stipulated WN could NOT fly 737 Classics, NG and MAXs all on the same program, so Classics were gone.


gf
 
PixelPilot
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Wed Mar 13, 2019 2:40 pm

Boxes shipped to UK is probably the best decision from Boeing standpoint.
Gives the outcome better credibility in this messed up political / social media terror environment and that's exactly what they need.
And I'm pretty sure NTSB will have access to all the data anyway.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Wed Mar 13, 2019 2:47 pm

musicrab wrote:
Looks like another thread is needed "Where should black box recorders be sent to after an accident". I really hope they're not still sitting on a shelf gathering dust.


Seriously, why is this getting so much attention here? Don't care if they are sending it to UK, France of US. I am sure they are all capable to reading this and report on the findings. There are well known international procedures for an aircraft incident investigations and they need to be observed. This has nothing or at least should not have anything to do with nationality, but everything to find out the problem why this a/c went down.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
asdf
Posts: 496
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Wed Mar 13, 2019 2:48 pm

uta999 wrote:
What's involved in 'ditching' MCAS altogether? Change of CoG, new tail, rear fuselage plug, rear fuel tank?


new certification
new pilot ratings
needs 10 years till in service
no way to compete to the NEO you can buy cash&carry from the shelf

they got into that MCAS drama because they had pressure to deliver
- very soon
- a bird with no need for new pilot rating
- a bird with the big engines that do not fit on the actual frame
 
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speedygonzales
Posts: 643
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Wed Mar 13, 2019 2:49 pm

uta999 wrote:
What's involved in 'ditching' MCAS altogether? Change of CoG, new tail, rear fuselage plug, rear fuel tank?

Probably a new nacelle that generates less lift at high AoA.
Ignorance kills. :tombstone:
 
Etheereal
Posts: 354
Joined: Tue Nov 29, 2016 11:44 am

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Wed Mar 13, 2019 2:53 pm

musicrab wrote:
Looks like another thread is needed "Where should black box recorders be sent to after an accident". I really hope they're not still sitting on a shelf gathering dust.

We also need a thread for the theories, since there's almost no data from the crash, yet people have managed to blame WN, Trump, Boeing and MCAS among others..

eisenbach wrote:
I just got the message that EASA issued an Emergency Airworthiness Directive, grounding The Boeing Company, Commercial Airplanes Group Models 737-8 and 737-9 aeroplanes

You got the message wrong, the grounding is for the Max8 and 9, not the 800 and 900. Also, that comment belongs into the grounding thread.
 
TravelbyAir
Posts: 8
Joined: Tue Feb 26, 2019 3:24 am

Autopilot, not MCAS?

Wed Mar 13, 2019 2:56 pm

Max pilots have reported uncommanded nose down almost immediately after engaging autopilot, in conjunction with speed fluctuation. A new twist?
http://www.cbs8.com/story/40115742/pilots-have-reported-issues-in-us-with-new-boeing-jet
 
Flaps
Posts: 1578
Joined: Sat Feb 05, 2000 1:11 pm

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Wed Mar 13, 2019 2:57 pm

So just to be clear....If an Airbus crashes in Panama or Guatemala and those authorities ask that the black boxes be sent to the US for analysis, all of you Euros are going to be good with that? No questions asked? All good with you? No conspiracy theories? Riiiigght.....Got it.

Thus far the only value displayed by this thread is its shear entertainment quality.
 
ilovelamp
Posts: 331
Joined: Tue Dec 05, 2017 12:45 am

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Wed Mar 13, 2019 2:59 pm

I’ve received word that AA has notified their pilots that ALL US operated MAXes have a dual AoA system for redundancy. The Lion Air CEO has confirmed their delivered MAXes only had a single AoA system. No confirmation on the setup for the Ethiopian jets yet.

Just another piece to the puzzle.


ILL
 
Planejoe
Posts: 2
Joined: Fri Sep 28, 2012 3:11 pm

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Wed Mar 13, 2019 3:01 pm

I have been following this forum since the beginning. I heard new information today on CNBC Squawk Box. The president of the pilots union in American stated that the Max 8s at American Airlines have an optional feature in two AOA displays in the cockpit whereas most have one. Never herd that before. Is that the reason there have been no incidents in the US? Link to statement below.
https://www.cnbc.com/video/2019/03/13/w ... -says.html
 
Etheereal
Posts: 354
Joined: Tue Nov 29, 2016 11:44 am

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Wed Mar 13, 2019 3:02 pm

osiris30 wrote:
What I am curious about now is:. If the FDR and CVR show this wasn't a fault with the type, who are the conspiracy theorist going to blame now.

Trust me, they'll ignore it and still blame Boeing and the FAA being in cahoots with the UK due Brexit (Its kinda funny since people here are up in arms advocating for the UK to get the investigation, but when No deal goes tru, they'll be on arms so that France and or Germany do the investigation instead, lol).

Also, since BA plans to buy some 777X, they're gonna say that Boeing gave them a special discount just for "their troubles" :stirthepot:
 
gloom
Posts: 326
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Wed Mar 13, 2019 3:03 pm

speedygonzales wrote:
uta999 wrote:
What's involved in 'ditching' MCAS altogether? Change of CoG, new tail, rear fuselage plug, rear fuel tank?

Probably a new nacelle that generates less lift at high AoA.


I believe also for increased rotational force from engines (more drag on idle, more thrust on full, engine further forward and up). Anyone able to confirm/deny?

Cheers,
Adam
 
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Finn350
Posts: 1594
Joined: Tue Jul 09, 2013 4:57 am

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Wed Mar 13, 2019 3:09 pm

ilovelamp wrote:
I’ve received word that AA has notified their pilots that ALL US operated MAXes have a dual AoA system for redundancy. The Lion Air CEO has confirmed their delivered MAXes only had a single AoA system. No confirmation on the setup for the Ethiopian jets yet.

Just another piece to the puzzle.


ILL


That is referring to number of cockpit displays only. All 737 MAX have dual AoA sensors and the same MCAS implementation.
 
quentinc
Posts: 3
Joined: Wed Jun 10, 2009 6:41 am

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Wed Mar 13, 2019 3:15 pm

Flaps wrote:
So just to be clear....If an Airbus crashes in Panama or Guatemala and those authorities ask that the black boxes be sent to the US for analysis, all of you Euros are going to be good with that? No questions asked? All good with you? No conspiracy theories? Riiiigght.....Got it.

Thus far the only value displayed by this thread is its shear entertainment quality.



Take a look at the report on PR-MBK....

https://reports.aviation-safety.net/200 ... PR-MBK.pdf

that crashed in Brazil.... as the report states,,, the FDRs were sent to the NTSB, who downloaded the information and assisted in the investigation. No "Euros" complained. Why would they?
 
SwissCanuck
Posts: 167
Joined: Tue Jan 14, 2014 8:06 am

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Wed Mar 13, 2019 3:16 pm

Flaps wrote:
So just to be clear....If an Airbus crashes in Panama or Guatemala and those authorities ask that the black boxes be sent to the US for analysis, all of you Euros are going to be good with that? No questions asked? All good with you? No conspiracy theories? Riiiigght.....Got it.

Thus far the only value displayed by this thread is its shear entertainment quality.


... are you talking to money? Cuz it sounds like you're talking to money. I don't think there's any here.

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