osiris30
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 18, 2019 10:28 pm

vfw614 wrote:
osiris30 wrote:
vfw614 wrote:

"Until the BEA (or NTSB) says it" - here you go:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D18ysBLX4AEDwR2.jpg:large

I am waiting with bated breath with what argument this one will be discredited...


Without weighing in on your argument, they released that on behalf of the Ethiopian authorities, as I believe they are not part of the investigation team and the wording says 'the investigation team noticed...'

Be careful with wording on PR pieces. It is often intentionally vague.




From what exactly do you get the idea that it was released on behalf of the Ethiopian authorities? You mean BEA is releasing a statement in which they THANK the Ethiopians for their trust after being ordered to do that? Sure. Nothing in that press release indicates that it is not a BEA release, but an EIAB release published by BEA. All BEA says that it was released in coordination with (not: on behalf of) the Ethiopians - which is unsurprising as BEA would need some sort of approval to release preliminary information from those who own the data.

It should also be noted that bits and pieces from inside BEA have been leaked already (I am mentioning this now because REUTERS - which you apparently trust - has cited one such source: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ethi ... SKCN1QZ1R9) and this leaked information appears to be rather consistent in hinting at similarities with JT610.



The BEA made several tweets "on behalf of the invesitgation team". Go check their Twitter. I do NOT believe the BEA is currently a party to the investigation
I don't care what you think of my opinion. It's my opinion, so have a nice day :)
 
vfw614
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 18, 2019 10:32 pm

I am not talking about any past Tweets. The press release is clear. It is not sent out on behalf of anyone, its is on BEA letterhead and it names an BEA employee as a contact.
 
dragon6172
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 18, 2019 10:34 pm

PW100 wrote:
Anyone any ideas on this question: What angle rate could one normally expect with hand turning the trim wheel?

PW100 wrote:
. . . then it's vital to flick Stab Cut Switch immediately. Now the crew have to revert back to manual trim wheel. What's the normal rate your average pilot can obtain using the wheel?
From previous posts in this thread:
* MCAS rate: 0.27 deg/sec
* Control Column Electric Trim Switch: 1 deg/sec
* Manual Trim Wheel: ?? deg/sec.

Can a pilot spin the wheel fast enough to raise the nose, and at the same time maintain enough pulling force on the control column? Probably that would require one pilot pulling hard, and the other one spinning the wheel. Requires very good CRM - and quick, as time is definitely on their side.

Closest I can come up with is around 0.5 degree per full turn. Somewhere around 30-40 turns end to end. Manual trim has more authority (around 17 degrees end to end) than electric trim (around 10.5 degrees end to end). I think that math comes out to roughly 0.5 degree per turn? So I guess how fast can you turn the wheel?
Phrogs Phorever
 
XRAYretired
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 18, 2019 10:45 pm

wjcandee wrote:
anfromme wrote:
Note how the release states that the data extraction was monitored by the Ethiopian authorities, the BEA and the NTSB, and how the investigation team noted clear similarities between ET302 and JT610. The "team", to me, would mean Ethopia, BEA and NTSB.


That's what the Ethiopian AIB wants you to think. Whether that's true or not is unclear. Note the disclaimers in bold at the bottom of the page. Clearly part of the quid pro quo for going to the BEA was this kind of politician-like stuff. BEA makes it very clear that all they did was download and verify the data, and that's it, and the EAIB said thank you very much and buh-bye. Make no mistake: the Ethiopian AIB, meaning the Ethiopian Government, meaning the owner of the airline -- whose people are proven past liars -- is running this investigation.

Like I have said all along, is it possible that somehow they managed to duplicate the Lion Air accident -- this time after being completely-aware of the MCAS system? Yeah, it is. It's too soon to eliminate anything. But it's also too soon to give this airline and its pilots a pass as if they were victims. And I hope that the EAIB will realize that, unlike when they lawn-darted a perfectly-good airplane in Beirut, the whole world depends upon them getting this right, and they should have one of the AAIB (Britain), the BEA (France) or the NTSB (US), thoroughly-involved in the investigation and there to support the conclusions of the EAIB, which is not by itself a credible honest broker of the facts, as proven by its past conduct.

Me, personally, being in the wordsmithing and BS-detecting business myself, I read this press release, with its vague wording and boldface disclaimers, and bootlicking the Ethiopian entity, as saying, "The Ethiopians asked us to release this so it wouldn't look like we were taking over the investigation and to make it crystal clear that it is their investigation, but at the same time lending the credibility of our organization to these vague statements." And, having done so, to put a big disclaimer on the bottom essentially that, "We're not saying that we ourselves are making any conclusions". The term "investigative team" is suspect when they don't define what the team is except to make clear that their role was to download and verify the data, then give it to the EAIB and walk away. (Remember, "I did not have sexual relations with that woman, Ms. Lewinsky?" Clinton used a specific term that he and his surrogates then ducked defining on the basis that the President shouldn't have to do so because it was so distasteful, thereby telling a boldfaced lie while at the same time technically telling the truth. That's how that game works.)

So how is the BEA part of the "investigative team" again? It's not nearly definitive enough in English. It is possible that it is clearer or more-definitive in French.

Moreover, a broad brush statement that the "data looks similar" is not the kind of statement that the NTSB, for example, would normally make, precisely because people will leap to conclusions about what it means. Compare the Atlas press release, for example. Detailed, with zero conclusions. Here, it's all conclusions with no detail. This smells, and as it now appears that only "one data stream" "looks similar", all this may be saying is that the AOA sensor on this plane was defective, too, not that the accident sequence has anything to do with that. Notice that they say absolutely-nothing about whether MCAS engaged or whether the aircraft configuration was such that it would be inhibited. Those would be useful facts -- ones that they currently know -- that they are for some reason shielding while they say meaningless things like, "This looks similar to the Lion Air accident."

It could well be that this is another MCAS incident, which would be awful. But it continues to be a fair statement that everything the EAIB says has to be taken with a grain of salt and with independent analysis, because they have proven that -- at least with respect to the last major fatal accident they investigated involving Ethiopian -- putting the truth first is not their sole mission.


EAIB are lead investigator in accordance with international treaties. NTSB are part of the investigation team and BEA may still have some parts to play. I would be confident that neither NTSB or BEA would sign off on any investigation reports or conclusions they were not satisfied with and could go as so far as to issue a minority report should they deem it necessary.

The rest of the world will rightly expect and require a full and assured investigation to be completed. Any shenanigans by any party involved will likely be obvious and further damage any remaining trust in them.

I would suggest bad-mouthing the Ethiopians is not contributing to a satisfactory conclusion everyone wants (and is contrary to the message from your Boeing champions that you are not helping).

Ray
 
Bongodog49
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 18, 2019 10:46 pm

chicawgo wrote:
PW100 wrote:
Moose135 wrote:

I'm a huge fan of Boeing, and I think it's absolutely horrible that an airline wouldn't spend the extra money to equip their aircraft with an extra AOA vane and an AOA disagree light, so their pilots know this problem is happening...


What's next, should a stickshaker and pusher also come as optional items, not required for safe operation? It's absolutely horrible to put such a choice on the table in the first place.


This is a standard part of the industry.

Anti-lock brakes weren't standard in cars for at least two decades after they were introduced. Neither were side impact airbags. How about the modern lane departure and frontal crash radar systems? Those aren't standard in most cars today. All of these features no doubt save tens of thousands of lives per year. Are car manufacturers "murderers" (as others have suggested) because they don't make them standard? Price makes a difference and customers have the ability to choose between cost and features. If they aren't willing to take the additional risk by saving money, then don't buy a car at all.


If a car has unreliable speed indication it's inconvenient but non fatal, if however an aeroplane has unreliable speed or aoa data, it has a tendency to drop out of the sky, completely different scenario.
 
Backseater
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 18, 2019 10:57 pm

PW100 wrote:
Anyone any ideas on this question: What angle rate could one normally expect with hand turning the trim wheel?

PW100 wrote:
. . . then it's vital to flick Stab Cut Switch immediately. Now the crew have to revert back to manual trim wheel. What's the normal rate your average pilot can obtain using the wheel?
From previous posts in this thread:
* MCAS rate: 0.27 deg/sec
* Control Column Electric Trim Switch: 1 deg/sec
* Manual Trim Wheel: ?? deg/sec.

Can a pilot spin the wheel fast enough to raise the nose, and at the same time maintain enough pulling force on the control column? Probably that would require one pilot pulling hard, and the other one spinning the wheel. Requires very good CRM - and quick, as time is definitely on their side.

What I gathered in articles I read, 240 manual turns to go from full nose down to full nose up I.e. 30degrees. So 80 turns from -5 deg to 0 deg. Plan ahead if you are going to spin by hand!
 
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anfromme
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 18, 2019 11:02 pm

wjcandee wrote:
anfromme wrote:
Note how the release states that the data extraction was monitored by the Ethiopian authorities, the BEA and the NTSB, and how the investigation team noted clear similarities between ET302 and JT610. The "team", to me, would mean Ethopia, BEA and NTSB.


That's what the Ethiopian AIB wants you to think. Whether that's true or not is unclear. Note the disclaimers in bold at the bottom of the page. Clearly part of the quid pro quo for going to the BEA was this kind of politician-like stuff. BEA makes it very clear that all they did was download and verify the data, and that's it

No. They're clearly saying here they, together with the EAIB and the NTSB verified the data as well.
As per international treaties, the investigation team definitely includes NTSB alongside EAIB, with BEA also being a part of the team as they're assisting where EAIB is lacking the technical know-how. Those three authorities are explicitly mentioned as having jointly verified the data, before it is mentioned that during verification similarities were apparent.
So to conclude that the "investigation team" mentioned in the press release only consists of the people from EAIB when the investigation is a joint effort of at least EAIB, BEA and NTSB at this point seems more far-fetched (until proven otherwise) than to assume that the "investigation team" is the group of authorities that we know are part of the investigation.

On a side note: It seems like you're pretending like this is the first time anybody of note has ever indicated parallels between ET302 and JT610 when even the FAA itself has noted these parallels, based on both satellite data and evidence from the wreckage.

wjcandee wrote:
It could well be that this is another MCAS incident, which would be awful. But it continues to be a fair statement that everything the EAIB says has to be taken with a grain of salt and with independent analysis, because they have proven that -- at least with respect to the last major fatal accident they investigated involving Ethiopian -- putting the truth first is not their sole mission.

Well, firstly, we have both the BEA and NTSB on board here who would be within their rights to contradict any statements from EAIB they disagree with, rather than issueing press releases on BEA letterheads. Don't forget the BEA was the very authority who with ET409 delivered the findings Ethiopian Airlines wasn't happy with.
Secondly, if you place such high emphasis on prior misconduct, you should also have a look at "737 rudder problems" and thus declare Ethiopian, EAIB, FAA and Boeing equally unreliable.
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wjcandee
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 18, 2019 11:07 pm

XRAYretired wrote:
I would suggest bad-mouthing the Ethiopians is not contributing to a satisfactory conclusion everyone wants (and is contrary to the message from your Boeing champions that you are not helping).


I don't know what a "Boeing champion" is. I think Boeing made a grievous mistake here in designing and implementing the system, abandoning a simple design philosophy, and apparently putting marketing and sales ahead of solid, well-thought-out engineering. I also think that if the contours of the issue are what seems to have been explained (and that this Ethiopian incident doesn't reveal some other defect), then this is something that can be fixed now with a software change, new manuals and additional training and maybe reengineering in the future. The fundamental design of the aircraft is sound, and this, like many other problems discovered after EIS, should be pretty-straightforward to deal with. I don't think that regulatory authorities are going to be satisfied with anything short of a high-bar of proof that the problem is solved, which I believe is going to mean a much-longer grounding of these aircraft than anyone expects.

Nobody is just "bad-mouthing" "the Ethiopians". I am saying a specific thing: the Ethiopian Accident Investigation Bureau has proven itself, during its investigation into the last major accident involving Ethiopian Airlines, which is 100-percent owned by the same government, as being a feckless group with multiple agendas, to the point that they lied (and there is no other word for it) about the cause of that accident, and continue to promote that lie to the exclusion of the solidly-evidence-based conclusions of all other authorities who have examined the same evidence, including the Libyan government and the BEA. If it embarrasses the national carrier in which so many Ethiopians take great pride, the Ethiopian Government was willing to just lie. And there is no reason to believe that it will be any different now -- UNLESS people hold them accountable for their past conduct and shout it from the rooftops, so that the Government makes the political calculation that transparency and the recovery of credibility are more important than potentially-offending voters by disclosing the horrible truth.

They need to be called out and held accountable, so that the world can have confidence in the conclusion.
Last edited by wjcandee on Mon Mar 18, 2019 11:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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anfromme
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 18, 2019 11:07 pm

Backseater wrote:
What I gathered in articles I read, 240 manual turns to go from full nose down to full nose up I.e. 30degrees. So 80 turns from -5 deg to 0 deg. Plan ahead if you are going to spin by hand!


If that is the case, it's potentially a problem at low altitudes even if you do manage to turn off MCAS after its second activation.
MCAS can deliver a maximum trim input of 2.5° each time it actives, so it could reach 5° with just two activation cycles. You manage to switch MCAS off using the cutout switches - but then you have to manually counter the MCAS trim.
That sequence of tasks (deal with unreliable airspeed info, realise you hit MCAS, switch MCAS off, manually counter-trim) at least sounds like it could be tough to achieve just after take-off at low altitude. Any pilots with first-hand experience to confirm/disspell this?
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wjcandee
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 18, 2019 11:11 pm

anfromme wrote:
No. They're clearly saying here they, together with the EAIB and the NTSB verified the data as well.


Okay. Last time. After that I'm not debating it any longer.

YES they are saying that they verified that the data they gave to the EAIB was accurate.

They are NOT clearly saying that they agree with the characterization stated by EAIB. And, as I said, it would be unusual for them to make a characterization like this, on their own, this early in the investigation. And that this is particularly so when the characterization is designed to be interpreted in a much-broader-way than what they can later say they intended.
Last edited by wjcandee on Mon Mar 18, 2019 11:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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SheikhDjibouti
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 18, 2019 11:14 pm

Planetalk wrote:
Considering their deliberate attempts to shift the focus of the LionAir investigation and deny the plane had a problem...….,

caoimhin wrote:
I'm not defending the company, except to the extent that this particular poster has made an extreme statement, as a conclusion, absent any factual support. Although his seething hatred of Boeing is well-established, an accusation of "premeditated murder" is ludicrous. As if Boeing had the specific intent to cause two crashes. If he's got evidence that Boeing made specific decisions with the deliberate goal of killing 300+ souls, I'd love to see it. Since such evidence doesn't exist, maybe he should try to obscure his favouritism by focusing on what is factually known, rather than what he'd like to believe.
"I'm not defending the company..." :lol:

osiris30 wrote:
Frankly those postings are bordering on something someone could take legal action against.
Bring it on! :box:

The elements of common law murder are: Unlawful / killing / through criminal act or omission /of a human / by another human / with malice aforethought.

Please consider all of those elements.

I'll help y'all out with what is probably the trickiest one;

Originally malice aforethought carried its everyday meaning. The courts broadened the scope of murder by eliminating the requirement of actual premeditation and deliberation as well as true malice. All that was required for malice aforethought to exist is that the perpetrator act with one of the four states of mind that constitutes "malice".
One of the four states of mind recognized as constituting "malice" is:
"Reckless indifference to an unjustifiably high risk to human life (sometimes described as an "abandoned and malignant heart")"

Now tell me how that doesn't describe exactly what Boeing have done in this case. :roll:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Murder#Degrees_of_murder
Nothing to see here; move along please.
 
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anfromme
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 18, 2019 11:23 pm

wjcandee wrote:
YES they are saying that they verified that the data they gave to the EAIB was accurate.

They are NOT clearly saying that they agree with the characterization stated by EAIB. And, as I said, it would be unusual for them to make a characterization like this, on their own, this early in the investigation.

Well, as I said before, to conclude that the "investigation team" mentioned in the press release only consists of the people from EAIB when the investigation is a joint effort of at least EAIB, BEA and NTSB at this point seems more far-fetched (until proven otherwise) than to assume that the "investigation team" is the group of authorities that we know are part of the investigation.
I'm sure we'll find out soon enough anyway what the NTSB's position is.

On a side note: If BEA's Twitter feed is to be believed, the BEA was primarily involved in getting the data read/verified. This does not sound like they're a part of the next steps of the investigation (unless called upon again):
https://twitter.com/BEA_Aero/status/1107700962364252160
The Ethiopian accident investigation bureau has left @BEA_Aero after 3 days of coordinated technical work with our investigators and 1 day of debriefing.




wjcandee wrote:
They need to be called out and held accountable, so that the world can have confidence in the conclusion.

It's fair that any deviation from sound and proper practise during the investigation should be called out, regardless of who commits it. And it's fair to point out prior misconduct in these areas.
And the EAIB as well as ET have been called out regarding ET409. Multiple times. By the BEA and the NTSB, among others.

However, your posts tend to place a slightly different emphasis, as you're basically spreading doubt on any statement that is drawing parallels between JT610 and ET302, even coming from - as in this latest instance - the BEA, who are assisting the investigations, just like the NTSB is.
So in response to a clear statement from the BEA, released under their own letterhead, drawing a parallel it seems you'd rather not see drawn, you are at length shouting from the rooftops about how EAIB did something wrong following a crash nine years ago.
Last edited by anfromme on Mon Mar 18, 2019 11:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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zeke
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 18, 2019 11:29 pm

wjcandee wrote:
So how is the BEA part of the "investigative team" again? It's not nearly definitive enough in English. It is possible that it is clearer or more-definitive in French.


The state of occurrence is normally the lead authority for the overall investigation with the state of manufacturer of the airframe, engines, and manufacturers as observers.

The state of occurrence can delegate part or all of the investigation to another party, here they have done it to the BEA for the CVR and FDR. This is very common due to not many countries having the equipment to download and validate the data. The BEA in turn would produce a report with the validated CVR and FDR readout to the state of investigation.

The CVR FDR readout is only part of the picture, Maintenance records, pilot records, airfield information, ATC transmissions, radar data etc also need to be collected and validated.

Under the established ICAO convention only the state of investigation can approve the release of information. If the BEA makes a statement it will be done with the approval of the state of investigation.
Human rights lawyers are "ambulance chasers of the very worst kind.'" - Sky News
 
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SheikhDjibouti
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 18, 2019 11:34 pm

chicawgo wrote:
PW100 wrote:
What's next, should a stickshaker and pusher also come as optional items, not required for safe operation? It's absolutely horrible to put such a choice on the table in the first place.

Anti-lock brakes weren't standard in cars for at least two decades after they were introduced. Neither were side impact airbags. How about the modern lane departure and frontal crash radar systems? Those aren't standard in most cars today. All of these features no doubt save tens of thousands of lives per year. Are car manufacturers "murderers" (as others have suggested) because they don't make them standard? Price makes a difference and customers have the ability to choose between cost and features. If they aren't willing to take the additional risk by saving money, then don't buy a car at all.

Another false analogy (I'm losing count...)

Anti-lock brakes and side impact airbags "make a safe car safer"™

Despite Boeing's incredibly crass statement, MCAS does not "make a safe plane safer" in quite the same way.

The correct analogy is a car maker fitting anti-lock brakes because totally unknown to you they installed a system whereby if the speedometer fails, the car immediately enters a skid.
So to remedy this, they fitted anti-lock brakes to control said skid.
Firstly, that is a long way from "making a safe car safer"
Secondly, offering it as an option in such circumstances counts as criminally negligent.

The phrase "an accident waiting to happen" springs to mind.... :roll:
Nothing to see here; move along please.
 
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7BOEING7
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 18, 2019 11:34 pm

Backseater wrote:
PW100 wrote:
Anyone any ideas on this question: What angle rate could one normally expect with hand turning the trim wheel?

PW100 wrote:
. . . then it's vital to flick Stab Cut Switch immediately. Now the crew have to revert back to manual trim wheel. What's the normal rate your average pilot can obtain using the wheel?
From previous posts in this thread:
* MCAS rate: 0.27 deg/sec
* Control Column Electric Trim Switch: 1 deg/sec
* Manual Trim Wheel: ?? deg/sec.

Can a pilot spin the wheel fast enough to raise the nose, and at the same time maintain enough pulling force on the control column? Probably that would require one pilot pulling hard, and the other one spinning the wheel. Requires very good CRM - and quick, as time is definitely on their side.

What I gathered in articles I read, 240 manual turns to go from full nose down to full nose up I.e. 30degrees. So 80 turns from -5 deg to 0 deg. Plan ahead if you are going to spin by hand!


That 240 turns sounds a bit high. There's a total of about 17 units of trim (NG) and it's been a while but I'd say about 3 turns or less to cover a unit

Hand cranking one guy (but handles are offset so two can play at once) could probably due around 1 turn/sec. But heh, why not trim to where you want it before you hit the cutout switches?
 
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caoimhin
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Mon Mar 18, 2019 11:52 pm

SheikhDjibouti wrote:
Planetalk wrote:
Considering their deliberate attempts to shift the focus of the LionAir investigation and deny the plane had a problem...….,

caoimhin wrote:
I'm not defending the company, except to the extent that this particular poster has made an extreme statement, as a conclusion, absent any factual support. Although his seething hatred of Boeing is well-established, an accusation of "premeditated murder" is ludicrous. As if Boeing had the specific intent to cause two crashes. If he's got evidence that Boeing made specific decisions with the deliberate goal of killing 300+ souls, I'd love to see it. Since such evidence doesn't exist, maybe he should try to obscure his favouritism by focusing on what is factually known, rather than what he'd like to believe.
"I'm not defending the company..." :lol:

osiris30 wrote:
Frankly those postings are bordering on something someone could take legal action against.
Bring it on! :box:

The elements of common law murder are: Unlawful / killing / through criminal act or omission /of a human / by another human / with malice aforethought.

Please consider all of those elements.

I'll help y'all out with what is probably the trickiest one;

Originally malice aforethought carried its everyday meaning. The courts broadened the scope of murder by eliminating the requirement of actual premeditation and deliberation as well as true malice. All that was required for malice aforethought to exist is that the perpetrator act with one of the four states of mind that constitutes "malice".
One of the four states of mind recognized as constituting "malice" is:
"Reckless indifference to an unjustifiably high risk to human life (sometimes described as an "abandoned and malignant heart")"

Now tell me how that doesn't describe exactly what Boeing have done in this case. :roll:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Murder#Degrees_of_murder


I practise law in another common law jurisdiction, but I have a basic familiarity with American criminal law, which I presume you are referencing and (to my knowledge, incorrectly) applying.

You are describing “murder”, which can occur given recklessness. “Premeditated murder” is a different criminal charge, typically called “first degree murder” in the US.

So, to your legal analysis above, yes, “malice aforethought” is an element of murder of all degrees, distinguishing it from manslaughter. Premeditation is its own element of first degree murder in most US jurisdictions, and (to my knowledge) requires a specific intent to kill, above and beyond recklessness.
 
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scbriml
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Tue Mar 19, 2019 12:02 am

Moose135 wrote:
I'm a huge fan of Boeing, and I think it's absolutely horrible that an airline wouldn't spend the extra money to equip their aircraft with an extra AOA vane and an AOA disagree light, so their pilots know this problem is happening...


Not at all, given that the plane is certified as being safe without that option.

It's also been disputed that an extra AOA vane is actually an option (yes, I know the AOA Disagree indicator is).

osiris30 wrote:
Without weighing in on your argument, they released that on behalf of the Ethiopian authorities, as I believe they are not part of the investigation team and the wording says 'the investigation team noticed...'

Be careful with wording on PR pieces. It is often intentionally vague.


The wording seems pretty clear...

"As part of the recovery process, correct data extraction from both the FDR and CVR was verified by the Ethiopian Accident Investigation Bureau, BEA and NTSB."

So the data was verified by the EAIB, BEA and NTSB. It then says...

"During the verification process of the FDR data, clear similarities were noted..."

wjcandee wrote:
That's what the Ethiopian AIB wants you to think. Whether that's true or not is unclear. Note the disclaimers in bold at the bottom of the page. Clearly part of the quid pro quo for going to the BEA was this kind of politician-like stuff. BEA makes it very clear that all they did was download and verify the data, and that's it, and the EAIB said thank you very much and buh-bye. Make no mistake: the Ethiopian AIB, meaning the Ethiopian Government, meaning the owner of the airline -- whose people are proven past liars -- is running this investigation.


No, the BEA clearly says the data was verified by EAIB, BEA and NTSB and during that verification process the similarities were noted.

The NTSB are fully involved in this investigation. If they were being sidelined in the manner that you're suggesting, I'm sure they would have made it known. Do you not think?

osiris30 wrote:
In Washington, however, U.S. officials told Reuters that the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration and U.S. National Transportation Safety Board have not validated the data yet.

When investigators, after reviewing black box data, return to Addis Ababa and start conducting interpretive work, the NTSB and FAA will assist in verification and validation of the data, an official said.

A second source said little information had been circulated between parties about the contents of data and voice recordings.

Okay. I mean it's only Reuters.. We all know how disruptable they are!


Are you saying the BEA is lying? The Reuters article says it was last updated 12 hours ago. What time was the BEA PR released?

zeke wrote:
If the BEA makes a statement it will be done with the approval of the state of investigation.


Hence the two lines at the end of the PR to confirm that the information was released with the authority of the EAIB, per ICAO standards.
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MrJayhawk
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Tue Mar 19, 2019 12:09 am

Question: a lot has been discussed regarding the AoA vanes and other sensors for airspeed indication. Short of a bird strike or other physical damage, how long do these typically last before maintenance or replacement is required?
 
dragon6172
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Tue Mar 19, 2019 12:25 am

Backseater wrote:
What I gathered in articles I read, 240 manual turns to go from full nose down to full nose up I.e. 30degrees. So 80 turns from -5 deg to 0 deg. Plan ahead if you are going to spin by hand!

You're right. I was reading the wrong thing when I said 30-40 turns earlier. I dont know where you get 30 degrees though? Manual trim end to end is only 17 degrees? 70 turns is a lot but it's not like you're turning a large wheel.

anfromme wrote:
If that is the case, it's potentially a problem at low altitudes even if you do manage to turn off MCAS after its second activation.
MCAS can deliver a maximum trim input of 2.5° each time it actives, so it could reach 5° with just two activation cycles. You manage to switch MCAS off using the cutout switches - but then you have to manually counter the MCAS trim.
That sequence of tasks (deal with unreliable airspeed info, realise you hit MCAS, switch MCAS off, manually counter-trim) at least sounds like it could be tough to achieve just after take-off at low altitude. Any pilots with first-hand experience to confirm/disspell this?


That is why the pilots would be smart to use the electric trim switch on the control column to bring it back to a more normal trim position before flipping the cutout switches. As I've posted before, it actually says such in the procedure:

"Initially, higher control forces may be needed to overcome any stabilizer nose down trim already applied. Electric stabilizer trim can be used to neutralize control column pitch forces before moving the STAB TRIM CUTOUT switches to CUTOUT. Manual stabilizer trim can be used before and after the STAB TRIM CUTOUT switches are moved to CUTOUT."
Phrogs Phorever
 
Backseater
Posts: 478
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Tue Mar 19, 2019 12:32 am

I was wrong of course, not 30 but 17. The value 240 must also be wrong. Searching more I found a range from 40 to 268.
But I defer to 7BOEING7 with around 50, he is the expert.
 
United1
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Tue Mar 19, 2019 1:07 am

SheikhDjibouti wrote:
Planetalk wrote:
Considering their deliberate attempts to shift the focus of the LionAir investigation and deny the plane had a problem...….,

caoimhin wrote:
I'm not defending the company, except to the extent that this particular poster has made an extreme statement, as a conclusion, absent any factual support. Although his seething hatred of Boeing is well-established, an accusation of "premeditated murder" is ludicrous. As if Boeing had the specific intent to cause two crashes. If he's got evidence that Boeing made specific decisions with the deliberate goal of killing 300+ souls, I'd love to see it. Since such evidence doesn't exist, maybe he should try to obscure his favouritism by focusing on what is factually known, rather than what he'd like to believe.
"I'm not defending the company..." :lol:

osiris30 wrote:
Frankly those postings are bordering on something someone could take legal action against.
Bring it on! :box:

The elements of common law murder are: Unlawful / killing / through criminal act or omission /of a human / by another human / with malice aforethought.

Please consider all of those elements.

I'll help y'all out with what is probably the trickiest one;

Originally malice aforethought carried its everyday meaning. The courts broadened the scope of murder by eliminating the requirement of actual premeditation and deliberation as well as true malice. All that was required for malice aforethought to exist is that the perpetrator act with one of the four states of mind that constitutes "malice".
One of the four states of mind recognized as constituting "malice" is:
"Reckless indifference to an unjustifiably high risk to human life (sometimes described as an "abandoned and malignant heart")"

Now tell me how that doesn't describe exactly what Boeing have done in this case. :roll:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Murder#Degrees_of_murder


If anything were to be brought before a court (and it's highly unlikely that will occur) it would be under US federal law. At most you could go for involuntary manslaughter which basically involves proving that you caused the death of someone via negligence but without intent. I know that "blame America first" is fashionable right now but using your scenario under US law you would have to prove that Boeing employees literally sat around a table and purposely designed the MAX to kill people. While I do personally believe there is a design flaw/training issue with the base model MAX I don't think Boeing did anything they thought would intentionally harm anyone. There are quite a few companies that have produced products with design flaws (Boeing, Airbus, IKEA, Toyota and Sara Lee come to mind) that have resulted in peoples death. That is tragic but you learn, fix the problem, pay the fine and move on... It is inconceivable to me that Boeing a company that has produced tens of thousands of aircraft and moved billions of people safely around the world would intentionally jeopardize any ones life.
I know the voices in my head aren't real but sometimes their ideas are just awesome!!!
 
speedking
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Tue Mar 19, 2019 1:07 am

Backseater wrote:
I was wrong of course, not 30 but 17. The value 240 must also be wrong. Searching more I found a range from 40 to 268.
But I defer to 7BOEING7 with around 50, he is the expert.


And from low altitude and high speed, one has maybe 30 seconds until fiery death. Better spin that wheel fast!
 
dragon6172
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Tue Mar 19, 2019 1:21 am

speedking wrote:
Backseater wrote:
I was wrong of course, not 30 but 17. The value 240 must also be wrong. Searching more I found a range from 40 to 268.
But I defer to 7BOEING7 with around 50, he is the expert.


And from low altitude and high speed, one has maybe 30 seconds until fiery death. Better spin that wheel fast!


Or you could use the electric trim switch to reduce the nose down forces before turning it off and going manual. You know, like the procedure says.
Phrogs Phorever
 
speedking
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Tue Mar 19, 2019 1:31 am

dragon6172 wrote:
speedking wrote:
Backseater wrote:
I was wrong of course, not 30 but 17. The value 240 must also be wrong. Searching more I found a range from 40 to 268.
But I defer to 7BOEING7 with around 50, he is the expert.


And from low altitude and high speed, one has maybe 30 seconds until fiery death. Better spin that wheel fast!


Or you could use the electric trim switch to reduce the nose down forces before turning it off and going manual. You know, like the procedure says.


Yes. Fast brains are in many cases better than fast hand. But if you switch it off, don't stall it in high speed climb. There is now nothing to protect you from the thing you have not been trained to.
 
MD80Ttail
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Tue Mar 19, 2019 2:31 am

speedking wrote:
dragon6172 wrote:
speedking wrote:

There is now nothing to protect you from the thing you have not been trained to.


Every pilot should be trained not to stall an airplane from their very first single engine training flight. Every pilot should know how to recover from a stall.

Most commercial pilots, especially US owned carriers, have thousands of hours of experience which is training.
 
berari
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Tue Mar 19, 2019 3:04 am

mxaxai wrote:
s5daw wrote:
Dude, they left a hole in the ground with next to 0 identifiable airplane parts.

And, it appears, next to 0 identifiable human parts. A funeral for the Ethiopian victims today was done with empty caskets. All victims' next of kin received only a symbolic bag of dirt from the crash site.

Identification of human remains via DNA tests is expected to take 6 months or more.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/ ... al-service


I just watched the footage of the funeral ceremony, and it includes the interview of the Captain's parents as well as other crew members' relatives. Expression of grief at wakes and funerals in Ethiopia is quite open and heavy. The funeral was attended by grief stricken crew in uniform, and if you look closely, you will see the fabric of Ethiopian crew including non-Ethiopian employees.

Here's a link to the video:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ujbxgEuBKAY&feature=youtu.be

While we debate and speculate on what happened or who's at fault and what the financial/technical ramifications will be, we tend to overlook the impact to an airline, its surviving crew and how it moves on.
 
PixelPilot
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Tue Mar 19, 2019 3:05 am

So if AOA is the similarity between the accidents then what could be the issue?

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ethi ... SKCN1QZ1R9
 
sgrow787
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Tue Mar 19, 2019 4:28 am

According to a story in the Seattle Times, Boeing really can't fingerpoint to the FAA, since ODA has put the majority of the certification process in the hands of manufacturers:

https://www.seattletimes.com/business/d ... r-the-faa/

"... But in 2005, the power shift accelerated.

That year, the George W. Bush administration changed the certification process to allow Boeing and other companies the authority to appoint their own designees.

The FAA also moved more of the oversight function out of the agency and into the companies themselves. Under a process known as Organization Designation Authorization, or ODA, companies that had received special approval by the FAA could create in-house bodies that oversee the designees who were working on certification."
 
hivue
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Tue Mar 19, 2019 4:42 am

PixelPilot wrote:
So if AOA is the similarity between the accidents then what could be the issue?

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ethi ... SKCN1QZ1R9


I wonder if the ET crew thought they were approaching stall -- when they really weren't, the airplane was just going on bad AoA information -- and tried to power out of it, accounting for the low altitude and very high airspeed?
"You're sitting. In a chair. In the SKY!!" ~ Louis C.K.
 
vahancrazy
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Tue Mar 19, 2019 4:56 am

Last update on avherald suggest a healthy respinsability on ET: http://avherald.com/h?article=4c534c4a&opt=0

Ethiopian Airlines had been equipped with one Boeing 737-700 NG simulator only when the first MAX aircraft were put into service, the first 737-8 MAX simulator was put into service mid January 2019. Only in March 2019 a trim runaway lesson was included in the NG and MAX training syllabus. Flight crew are scheduled to go through a simulator session every 6 months (as per industry standards), the accident flight crew may thus not yet have received training on a stabilizer trim runaway (in the NG or MAX Simulator).

I mean, if that is true, ET was way slow to react!


Then I wonder, should it not be responsability of Boeing to inform of mandatory training to fix skills against a softer reminder of update?
Beaware, if Boeing had sent me their reminder about MAX new procedures, I would push every MAX pilot in the airline to work it during simulator (in house or outside) before flying again a MAX.
Last edited by vahancrazy on Tue Mar 19, 2019 5:21 am, edited 2 times in total.
 
rheinwaldner
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Tue Mar 19, 2019 5:19 am

osiris30 wrote:
Frankly those postings are bordering on something someone could take legal action against.

I can find articles, that state that upcoming damage claims could fall in the category of "punitive damage".
Many things are difficult, all things are possible!
 
mjoelnir
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Tue Mar 19, 2019 5:33 am

vahancrazy wrote:
Last update on avherald suggest a healthy respinsability on ET: http://avherald.com/h?article=4c534c4a&opt=0

Ethiopian Airlines had been equipped with one Boeing 737-700 NG simulator only when the first MAX aircraft were put into service, the first 737-8 MAX simulator was put into service mid January 2019. Only in March 2019 a trim runaway lesson was included in the NG and MAX training syllabus. Flight crew are scheduled to go through a simulator session every 6 months (as per industry standards), the accident flight crew may thus not yet have received training on a stabilizer trim runaway (in the NG or MAX Simulator).

I mean, if that is true, ET was way slow to react!


Then I wonder, should it not be responsability of Boeing to inform of mandatory training to fix skills against a softer reminder of update?
Beaware, if Boeing had sent me their reminder about MAX new procedures, I would push every MAX pilot in the airline to work it during simulator (in house or outside) before flying again a MAX.


If that is true ET was very fast to react, faster than the USA airlines for example, who still have to get their MAX simulators. ET seems to have got its MAX simulator before any of the USA airlines and started training on them.

The only difference training Boeing has mandated in regards to the MAX for NG pilots is contained in an i-pad tutorial. In regards to mandated simulator training, where would the pilots do it? There seem to be only very few MAX simulators available.
 
vahancrazy
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Tue Mar 19, 2019 5:39 am

mjoelnir wrote:
vahancrazy wrote:
Last update on avherald suggest a healthy respinsability on ET: http://avherald.com/h?article=4c534c4a&opt=0

Ethiopian Airlines had been equipped with one Boeing 737-700 NG simulator only when the first MAX aircraft were put into service, the first 737-8 MAX simulator was put into service mid January 2019. Only in March 2019 a trim runaway lesson was included in the NG and MAX training syllabus. Flight crew are scheduled to go through a simulator session every 6 months (as per industry standards), the accident flight crew may thus not yet have received training on a stabilizer trim runaway (in the NG or MAX Simulator).

I mean, if that is true, ET was way slow to react!


Then I wonder, should it not be responsability of Boeing to inform of mandatory training to fix skills against a softer reminder of update?
Beaware, if Boeing had sent me their reminder about MAX new procedures, I would push every MAX pilot in the airline to work it during simulator (in house or outside) before flying again a MAX.


If that is true ET was very fast to react, faster than the USA airlines for example, who still have to get their MAX simulators. ET seems to have got its MAX simulator before any of the USA airlines and started training on them.

The only difference training Boeing has mandated in regards to the MAX for NG pilots is contained in an i-pad tutorial. In regards to mandated simulator training, where would the pilots do it? There seem to be only very few MAX simulators available.


Fair point.

Edited: I missed the second paragraph
 
rheinwaldner
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Tue Mar 19, 2019 5:51 am

PW100 wrote:
There are around 7000 737NG in service worldwide, each doing on average 6 hrs per day. That's a total of 42000 hrs per day. They reach 140K every 10 days.

Isn't it every 3.3 days?
Many things are difficult, all things are possible!
 
AvFanNJ
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Tue Mar 19, 2019 5:56 am

WIederling wrote:
mm320cap wrote:
It’s horribly sad that it took a massive loss of life to uncover the issue (or issues). But when people say that modern airplanes have become too complex to fly, they should probably ask the people that do the flying.


I think this is a terrible statement.

The crash was premeditated murder.
It was not about uncovering hidden issues.
The crashes happened because a massive issue has been covered up, carefully hidden from view.
Think about it: when embedding the cert authority does not deliver enough advantage and easement!

Not only disagreeing with a pilot's insight but putting out the outrageous notion that Boeing intentionally set out to kill folks with the MAX. I could agree with much of your post but framing it that way is absurd and an insult to forum members. Boeing AND the FAA screwed up royally but let's not make an Agatha Christie style plot out of it. Crucial shortcuts were taken by Boeing in a rush to get the MAX certified and the FAA failed to provide proper oversight. That much we know but do you really think BCA would deliberately derail its own corporate well-being by intentionally foisting a bad product onto the market? At worst it's criminal negligence and manslaughter might apply but Boeing WILL pay dearly for this fiasco with corporate treasure and possible prison terms for some. Terrible about all those lives lost but BCA surely didn't intend them dead; it just made some very bad calls on the way to implement and certify the MAX and the FAA failed to properly scrutinize the process by delegating far too much to Boeing. It's a sad and tragic lesson learned but please don't elevate it to willful and wanton murder.
 
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remcor
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Tue Mar 19, 2019 6:06 am

berari wrote:
I just watched the footage of the funeral ceremony, and it includes the interview of the Captain's parents as well as other crew members' relatives. Expression of grief at wakes and funerals in Ethiopia is quite open and heavy. The funeral was attended by grief stricken crew in uniform, and if you look closely, you will see the fabric of Ethiopian crew including non-Ethiopian employees.

Here's a link to the video:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ujbxgEuBKAY&feature=youtu.be

While we debate and speculate on what happened or who's at fault and what the financial/technical ramifications will be, we tend to overlook the impact to an airline, its surviving crew and how it moves on.


Sad, thanks for sharing this. I’ve flown ET a few times both transiting through ADD and domestically when I took a vacation in Ethiopia a few years ago. I’ve always found Ethiopians to be lovely people and ET, outwardly at least, to be a pretty decent airline.
 
mjoelnir
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Tue Mar 19, 2019 6:17 am

AvFanNJ wrote:
WIederling wrote:
mm320cap wrote:
It’s horribly sad that it took a massive loss of life to uncover the issue (or issues). But when people say that modern airplanes have become too complex to fly, they should probably ask the people that do the flying.


I think this is a terrible statement.

The crash was premeditated murder.
It was not about uncovering hidden issues.
The crashes happened because a massive issue has been covered up, carefully hidden from view.
Think about it: when embedding the cert authority does not deliver enough advantage and easement!

Not only disagreeing with a pilot's insight but putting out the outrageous notion that Boeing intentionally set out to kill folks with the MAX. I could agree with much of your post but framing it that way is absurd and an insult to forum members. Boeing AND the FAA screwed up royally but let's not make an Agatha Christie style plot out of it. Crucial shortcuts were taken by Boeing in a rush to get the MAX certified and the FAA failed to provide proper oversight. That much we know but do you really think BCA would deliberately derail its own corporate well-being by intentionally foisting a bad product onto the market? At worst it's criminal negligence and manslaughter might apply but Boeing WILL pay dearly for this fiasco with corporate treasure and possible prison terms for some. Terrible about all those lives lost but BCA surely didn't intend them dead; it just made some very bad calls on the way to implement and certify the MAX and the FAA failed to properly scrutinize the process by delegating far too much to Boeing. It's a sad and tragic lesson learned but please don't elevate it to willful and wanton murder.


Very nice sentiments. But Boeing got a wake up call, the Lion air crash and than Boeing doubled down.
 
Pluto707
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Tue Mar 19, 2019 6:40 am

In brief: Snapping for a patch to deal with shortcomings, is flirting with safety, that is a no go thing in aviation. These accidents also deliver proof that Boeing does not have the same amount of experience in electronic guided flight systems, as Airbus has...
 
zippy
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Tue Mar 19, 2019 6:42 am

SheikhDjibouti wrote:
Anti-lock brakes and side impact airbags "make a safe car safer"™

Despite Boeing's incredibly crass statement, MCAS does not "make a safe plane safer" in quite the same way.


Sure, ABS is considered an "active safety" technology and airbags are typically considered "passive safety" technology. Neither will do you much good if the car is otherwise unsafe. A car that has poor tires won't benefit much from ABS much like car with a weak unibody won't benefit from airbags.

SheikhDjibouti wrote:
The correct analogy is a car maker fitting anti-lock brakes because totally unknown to you they installed a system whereby if the speedometer fails, the car immediately enters a skid.
So to remedy this, they fitted anti-lock brakes to control said skid.
Firstly, that is a long way from "making a safe car safer"
Secondly, offering it as an option in such circumstances counts as criminally negligent.

The phrase "an accident waiting to happen" springs to mind.... :roll:


Said technology already exists in the automotive space and it's typically called something like 'stability control'. Essentially a car can be quite safe under normal driving conditions but once you reach the limits of traction it may be unpredictable. While failure modes are typically of the fail-safe variety, a bad sensor can indeed cause dangerous problems. Thanks for the reminder, this is something I actually need to fix on my car. There are a variety of inputs for the stability control system including: wheel speed of each wheel, yaw rate, steering wheel position, and vehicle speed. The yaw sensor on this car has a finite lifetime but is also in an area prone to water ingress. After a few hours of driving in warm weather the yaw sensor (there's no redundancy) will provide invalid readings that aren't interpreted as "car is in a skid" instead of "yaw sensor is sending invalid values". The computer, of course, engages the brakes in something of a panic stop — trust me, it's unpleasant when you're driving down I-5 and this happens.

Is the auto manufacturer behaving in a criminal manner in this case? IMO, no, because the car itself is nearly twenty years old and it's reasonable to expect that things will fail with age. Am I criminally negligent for continuing to drive this car? Sure, if I were to take it on long trips where I know the behavior will be triggered. The problem is that in the case of the 737 MAX this failure isn't due to the age of the equipment, and it's not something that any of the involved parties (outside of Boeing) knew about. That's where the questions of liability come from.
 
boerje
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Tue Mar 19, 2019 7:12 am

zippy wrote:

Said technology already exists in the automotive space and it's typically called something like 'stability control'. Essentially a car can be quite safe under normal driving conditions but once you reach the limits of traction it may be unpredictable. While failure modes are typically of the fail-safe variety, a bad sensor can indeed cause dangerous problems. Thanks for the reminder, this is something I actually need to fix on my car. There are a variety of inputs for the stability control system including: wheel speed of each wheel, yaw rate, steering wheel position, and vehicle speed. The yaw sensor on this car has a finite lifetime but is also in an area prone to water ingress. After a few hours of driving in warm weather the yaw sensor (there's no redundancy) will provide invalid readings that aren't interpreted as "car is in a skid" instead of "yaw sensor is sending invalid values". The computer, of course, engages the brakes in something of a panic stop — trust me, it's unpleasant when you're driving down I-5 and this happens.

Is the auto manufacturer behaving in a criminal manner in this case? IMO, no, because the car itself is nearly twenty years old and it's reasonable to expect that things will fail with age. Am I criminally negligent for continuing to drive this car? Sure, if I were to take it on long trips where I know the behavior will be triggered. The problem is that in the case of the 737 MAX this failure isn't due to the age of the equipment, and it's not something that any of the involved parties (outside of Boeing) knew about. That's where the questions of liability come from.


When the ESC (or ESP or DSC) activates in your car you will see a ESC warning light but for some reason when the MCAS activates in a 737 MAX there is no MCAS warning for the pilots. Strange as I'd think the pilots would like to know what is happening and why.
 
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SomebodyInTLS
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Tue Mar 19, 2019 7:35 am

[double post]
Last edited by SomebodyInTLS on Tue Mar 19, 2019 7:38 am, edited 1 time in total.
"As with most things related to aircraft design, it's all about the trade-offs and much more nuanced than A.net likes to make out."
 
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SomebodyInTLS
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Tue Mar 19, 2019 7:36 am

SheikhDjibouti wrote:
However, in this case I also see the possibility that "grandfathering" will be put under the microscope, and if that happens things will get really interesting.


Probably not all that interesting... It's not like they'll retrospectively un-certify a bunch of aircraft, but they might tighten up the rules and make it harder to grandfather things without recertification where changes have been made.
"As with most things related to aircraft design, it's all about the trade-offs and much more nuanced than A.net likes to make out."
 
zippy
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Tue Mar 19, 2019 7:43 am

boerje wrote:
When the ESC (or ESP or DSC) activates in your car you will see a ESC warning light but for some reason when the MCAS activates in a 737 MAX there is no MCAS warning for the pilots. Strange as I'd think the pilots would like to know what is happening and why.


Sure, you get visual and auditory notifications, unfortunately when the stability control engages (at least with the ATE Mk60 unit on my car) it cannot be turned off until the car thinks it's no longer in a skid. At least on my car there's only a "stability control" light and it can mean malfunction or function. That one light doesn't indicate what action is being taken, nor does it indicate the source of the problem. The coarse indication is nice, but having an actionable resolution is nicer. There are much lower quality standards in the automotive world, likely because a single car wreck is likely to hurt a much smaller number of people.
 
WIederling
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Tue Mar 19, 2019 7:56 am

anfromme wrote:
If that is the case, it's potentially a problem at low altitudes even if you do manage to turn off MCAS after its second activation.
MCAS can deliver a maximum trim input of 2.5° each time it actives, so it could reach 5° with just two activation cycles. You manage to switch MCAS off using the cutout switches - but then you have to manually counter the MCAS trim.


Actually If you have understood the mechanics of MCAS action you would trim electric by hand and
switch off trim hard when reaching a workable position.

Reality broke on the "know and understand" thing
due to lack of information ( that was intentionally not provided ).
Murphy is an optimist
 
WIederling
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Tue Mar 19, 2019 7:59 am

zippy wrote:
There are much lower quality standards in the automotive world, likely because a single car wreck is likely to hurt a much smaller number of people.


It is in scope of low user qualification. Automotive trend is doing things automagically.
Murphy is an optimist
 
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SheikhDjibouti
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Tue Mar 19, 2019 8:57 am

SomebodyInTLS wrote:
SheikhDjibouti wrote:
However, in this case I also see the possibility that "grandfathering" will be put under the microscope, and if that happens things will get really interesting.

Probably not all that interesting... It's not like they'll retrospectively un-certify a bunch of aircraft, but they might tighten up the rules and make it harder to grandfather things without recertification where changes have been made.

I'm sure you're right except I thought grandfathering was already invalidated where "changes have been made"

Is that not precisely why Boeing instigated MCAS, to make the MAX appear to handle just like an NG (i.e. disguising any change)?

Is that not why MCAS was initially proposed with a 0.6deg nose down trim, because the change in aerodynamic performance was only minimal - except that isn't actually true.?

Is that not why minimal extra training was mandated, to persuade the world that the MAX was barely any different from what came before it?

Is that not why a third AoA sensor and additional software to manage the situation was only offered as an option, because fitting it as standard would be equivalent to admitting there were significant changes?

Is that not why Boeing obscured so many details because drawing attention to them could have prejudiced automatic grandfathering?

Each item in itself is possibly trivial, but taken as a package it obviously scared Boeing enough to want to hide it.

I don't have the relevant experience in this field to make a definitive judgement, but I've seen plenty of others on these forums who think they know the answer.
Ultimately lawyers will decide whether these changes constitute enough to invalidate grandfathering for the MAX.
And that is why it will never go to court.

In the absence of proper legal consideration. I predict grandfathering will be relaxed just enough to permit the MAX to fly again (because the world needs it....), and then it will tightened up for all future designs because it is "the right thing to do". The cognitive dissonance caused by such regulatory gymnastics will become an object lesson for future generations to laugh at. Meanwhile those of us alive today will have to hang our heads in shame.
Nothing to see here; move along please.
 
XRAYretired
Posts: 486
Joined: Fri Mar 15, 2019 11:21 am

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Tue Mar 19, 2019 9:05 am

-[url]http://boeing.com/commercial/737max/737-max-update.page#/current
[/url]

Statement Boeing CEO. Nothing unexpected.
 
asdf
Posts: 324
Joined: Tue Mar 18, 2014 12:03 am

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Tue Mar 19, 2019 9:07 am

chicawgo wrote:
...Are car manufacturers "murderers" (as others have suggested) because they don't make them standard? Price makes a difference and customers have the ability to choose between cost and features. If they aren't willing to take the additional risk by saving money, then don't buy a car at all.


well
they told us that they dont build in such features (...wich safed thousands of live ...) because "the pilot should fly the plane not the computer".

but this obviously was not the reason

they simply wanted to increase profit
probably at the expense of the passengers and the crews
 
Pluto707
Posts: 37
Joined: Sun Mar 10, 2019 2:59 pm

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Tue Mar 19, 2019 9:22 am

https://www.seattletimes.com/business/b ... 0Usl53CXMA

When i look at the picture, obviously some budgetary cuts at B ? Is this how professional test are effectuated ? My tubes for my goldfish aquarium are better then these, some collection of different lengths and diameters fixed together, no tension rings, some leakage...not important to determine pressures at sensors ?
 
rideforever
Posts: 23
Joined: Mon Mar 11, 2019 1:06 pm

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Tue Mar 19, 2019 9:46 am

XRAYretired wrote:

I was feeling better before I heard this.
Why are they rushing out a software fix from the aftermath of LionAir ? They are not changing their plans in respect of the 2nd crash ?
That is brazen.
I find this guy quite fake and plastic, the lights are on but sincerity is not home.

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