slowrambler
Posts: 138
Joined: Sat Nov 09, 2013 11:07 pm

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Thu Mar 14, 2019 12:24 pm

slider wrote:
I'm just going to say it--I'm not keen on how the Ethiopians have handled this. Not a timely disposition of critical post-crash evidence. Not accusing them of chicanery, but I don't think they're facing enough scrutiny for these unacceptable delays.

Thankfully, the NTSB will be a party to the investigation.


What are you accusing them of, then?
 
vfw614
Posts: 3795
Joined: Mon Dec 10, 2001 12:34 am

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Thu Mar 14, 2019 12:29 pm

Apparently of wasting time in discussions with US officials who pestered them to let the NTSB do the investigation against Ethiopia's wishes to have the investigation done by an European agency....
 
estorilm
Posts: 707
Joined: Fri Jan 16, 2009 3:07 am

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Thu Mar 14, 2019 12:39 pm

trpmb6 wrote:
felipekk wrote:
Which other systems are disabled if the crew toggled the cutoff switch as per the procedure to disable MCAS?


All automatic pitch trim functions stop and the pilots would have to manually trim the aircraft - something they are trained to handle.

Yup, but they are not trained (nor does anyone know) what the MAX will do if you get it slow and high AoA without MCAS. I kinda think at TOGA power it could be very difficult to lower the nose before critical angle of attack is achieved.

Personally I believe MCAS might even be too slow if you're rapidly approaching a stall at high power levels (even though, if failed while in normal flight, it seems to be operating far too fast) - thus we have another dilemma.
 
User avatar
JetBuddy
Posts: 2219
Joined: Wed Dec 25, 2013 1:04 am

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Thu Mar 14, 2019 12:40 pm

Is it possible that the variations in air speed and climb rate is because of a "loop" in the systems between MCAS and Auto Throttle?

For example, whenever MCAS pushes the nose down, throttles retard a bit not to gain too much speed. And then this cycle continues.

I believe these systems are independent of each other, but that might also be part of the problem.
 
Asiaflyer
Posts: 861
Joined: Fri May 11, 2007 11:50 am

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Thu Mar 14, 2019 12:41 pm

vfw614 wrote:
Apparently of wasting time in discussions with US officials who pestered them to let the NTSB do the investigation against Ethiopia's wishes to have the investigation done by an European agency....

Considered how the Lion Air crach has been handeled, it is fully understandable that the Ethiopians wants a third party to take a look at the black boxes.
SQ,MI,MH,CX,KA,CA,CZ,MU,KE,OZ,QF,NZ,FD,JQ,3K,5J,IT,AI,IC,QR,SK,LF,KL,AF,LH,LX,OS,SR,BA,SN,FR,WF,1I,5T,VZ,VX,AC,NW,UA,US,
 
felipekk
Posts: 13
Joined: Tue Dec 04, 2018 4:06 pm

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Thu Mar 14, 2019 12:46 pm

trpmb6 wrote:
felipekk wrote:
Which other systems are disabled if the crew toggled the cutoff switch as per the procedure to disable MCAS?


All automatic pitch trim functions stop and the pilots would have to manually trim the aircraft - something they are trained to handle.


What about the Speed Trim System? Could it be that disabling the MCAS disabled another system which then lead them to lose control of the aircraft?
 
User avatar
SomebodyInTLS
Posts: 1728
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 12:31 pm

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Thu Mar 14, 2019 1:02 pm

felipekk wrote:
trpmb6 wrote:
felipekk wrote:
Which other systems are disabled if the crew toggled the cutoff switch as per the procedure to disable MCAS?


All automatic pitch trim functions stop and the pilots would have to manually trim the aircraft - something they are trained to handle.


What about the Speed Trim System? Could it be that disabling the MCAS disabled another system which then lead them to lose control of the aircraft?


I forgot to post another thought I had a while ago: what if MCAS was triggered legitimately but pilots now think they have to cut it to fly safely...?
"As with most things related to aircraft design, it's all about the trade-offs and much more nuanced than A.net likes to make out."
 
estorilm
Posts: 707
Joined: Fri Jan 16, 2009 3:07 am

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Thu Mar 14, 2019 1:03 pm

felipekk wrote:
trpmb6 wrote:
felipekk wrote:
Which other systems are disabled if the crew toggled the cutoff switch as per the procedure to disable MCAS?


All automatic pitch trim functions stop and the pilots would have to manually trim the aircraft - something they are trained to handle.


What about the Speed Trim System? Could it be that disabling the MCAS disabled another system which then lead them to lose control of the aircraft?

STS would be disabled, but considering they were in the middle of an emergency - I highly doubt it had any bearing on the crash. I've mentioned it a few times, but lately I'm thinking they may have disabled MCAS successfully, but due to unreliable airspeed they got the plane slow. With no augmentation, I think she could have done some pretty bizarre stuff at that point.
 
aaexecplat
Posts: 504
Joined: Tue Sep 29, 2009 2:49 pm

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Thu Mar 14, 2019 1:21 pm

estorilm wrote:
trpmb6 wrote:
felipekk wrote:
Which other systems are disabled if the crew toggled the cutoff switch as per the procedure to disable MCAS?


All automatic pitch trim functions stop and the pilots would have to manually trim the aircraft - something they are trained to handle.

Yup, but they are not trained (nor does anyone know) what the MAX will do if you get it slow and high AoA without MCAS. I kinda think at TOGA power it could be very difficult to lower the nose before critical angle of attack is achieved.

Personally I believe MCAS might even be too slow if you're rapidly approaching a stall at high power levels (even though, if failed while in normal flight, it seems to be operating far too fast) - thus we have another dilemma.


Ding Ding Ding. And before anyone says "that barely every comes into play!", let me present to you the fairly common occurrence of Go-Arounds. I would not want to be the PIC on a MAX in a GA with auto trim disabled.
 
User avatar
trpmb6
Posts: 2712
Joined: Thu Apr 19, 2018 5:45 pm

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Thu Mar 14, 2019 1:39 pm

The more its discussed and the more I think about the data available... I'm just not convinced MCAS was in play. At this point I'm more concerned that they may have hit the trim cutoff switches prematurely with the fear that they were experiencing an MCAS issue.
 
ranold76
Posts: 47
Joined: Thu Mar 13, 2014 11:41 pm

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Thu Mar 14, 2019 1:59 pm

I have a simple question...
When you have AP disabled, A/T disabled, auto trim disabled and aware of your surroundings.... how hard is it to hand fly the B38M?
Also, how much difference than a likewise NG variant? eg; climbing, leveling off, landing AoA and speed etc.
Thanks
 
jetmechanicdave
Moderator
Posts: 222
Joined: Thu May 17, 2012 4:27 pm

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Thu Mar 14, 2019 1:59 pm

Just a reminder if your post does not fall within the forum rules it will be deleted. This includes off topic posts and personal attacks. If you are not aware of the forum rules I highly encourage you to read them. Thanks :)
Aircraft Mechanic and Airliners.net Forum Moderator
 
User avatar
casinterest
Posts: 9233
Joined: Sat Feb 12, 2005 5:30 am

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Thu Mar 14, 2019 2:00 pm

trpmb6 wrote:
The more its discussed and the more I think about the data available... I'm just not convinced MCAS was in play. At this point I'm more concerned that they may have hit the trim cutoff switches prematurely with the fear that they were experiencing an MCAS issue.




I read a report that they think the AoA sensors had a 20 degree disagreement in Lion Air 601, and this is what Boeing is working on in their software fix to handle.

That issue would present as soon as you took off, and if you turned off autopilot to fly the plane, the MCAS still kicks in unless you disable the trim stabilizers. I think what Boeing is trying to fix in software is to handle the disagreement, and make sure the pilots know that MCAS is still active though documentation and training. They may also modify the MCAS behavior in other ways to let the pilots know that an auto system is still engaged even though autopilot is off.

So I think MCAS was in play in both crashes once the Auto Pilot was off.
Last edited by casinterest on Thu Mar 14, 2019 2:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
MD80Ttail
Posts: 159
Joined: Wed Dec 07, 2016 1:22 am

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Thu Mar 14, 2019 2:00 pm

Based on the info we have currently no matter the problem having a 200hr total time FO lowers the chances of any successful outcome.
 
MD80Ttail
Posts: 159
Joined: Wed Dec 07, 2016 1:22 am

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Thu Mar 14, 2019 2:04 pm

ranold76 wrote:
I have a simple question...
When you have AP disabled, A/T disabled, auto trim disabled and aware of your surroundings.... how hard is it to hand fly the B38M?
Also, how much difference than a likewise NG variant? eg; climbing, leveling off, landing AoA and speed etc.
Thanks



Addmittingly I am drawing a conclusion with what I’m about to proffer without having a final report......but......no matter the root cause of this and the JT crash I really feel both accidents will show the need for more actual stick and rudder time for pilots. We truly don’t get enough IMO. I’m close to retirement and I honestly will admit I’m not as sharp hand flying as I was when I was banking hrs before flying mainline planes. Several other accidents have trended this way world wide. Lack of hands on flying might really be a root root root cause.
Last edited by MD80Ttail on Thu Mar 14, 2019 2:05 pm, edited 2 times in total.
 
SimonL
Posts: 41
Joined: Tue Mar 12, 2019 3:38 pm

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Thu Mar 14, 2019 2:07 pm

Well.... in order to gain 8000 hours you have to pass 200... And having a guy flying 1000 hour GA and doing his training on his own is not necessary safer than having the airline taking a guy with 0 hours and train him from the beginning.

But yes of course, an experienced pilot is often better than an inexperienced.
 
planecane
Posts: 1134
Joined: Thu Feb 09, 2017 4:58 pm

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Thu Mar 14, 2019 2:11 pm

Spiderguy252 wrote:
FlapsOne wrote:
Spiderguy252 wrote:
The likes of Southwest (and maybe RyanAir) have held the 737 program hostage for too long. We're seeing the dark side of free market economics with Boeing still prattling around the 737 in the 2020s at the behest of these carriers unwilling to spend the dime to look forward.

How many more incidents will it take to make this right?


I see. Interesting how dozens have ordered them, Southwest don’t have that many and Ryanair have the grand total of 0 MAX aircraft. Free market economics are leading product innovation in industries throughout the globe. Tell me comrade, how would the People’s 737 look like if it wasn’t for the likes of Southwest?


It doesn't matter how many SouthWest or RyanAir have in their fleet at the current time - it is well known that SouthWest are to the 737 program what Emirates are to the A380, and were the primary reason why Boeing decided to push ahead with an update over a new frame in the first place. And RyanAir got a custom model of their own - the 737 MAX 200.

Free market economics is quite clearly the way to go in the global economy - I was merely alluding to the fact that it's not without its dark side, as we have seen with this hodge podge airframe update that has resulted in a toll of 340+ deaths so far.


Umm.... It is well known that the American Airlines order is the primary reason Boeing decided to update the 737. If they didn't, AA was not going to wait for a clean sheet and would have gone all Airbus for narrowbodies. Southwest wasn't clamoring for an update and likely could have been convinced to wait for a 2025 clean sheet.
 
ytz
Posts: 3529
Joined: Thu Jun 25, 2009 12:31 am

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Thu Mar 14, 2019 2:13 pm

Yep. And this is part of the problem with an MCAS type bandaid. You now have pilots worried about issues and pulling the trigger on the MCAS while in a phase of flight where they would be closest to stalling. Add in possible erroneous indications on airspeed and altitude and you have a really dangerous situation for the crew where they can't make informed decisions leading to safe outcomes.
 
frmrCapCadet
Posts: 3127
Joined: Thu May 29, 2008 8:24 pm

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Thu Mar 14, 2019 2:14 pm

That the two recording devices are read correctly, and all possible data recovered is more important than how quickly it is done. Obviously for Boeing and owners of grounded planes the quicker this gets resolved the better. Name calling at Ethiopia is not appropriate at this point.
Buffet: the airline business...has eaten up capital...like..no other (business)
 
Elementalism
Posts: 458
Joined: Sat Jun 10, 2017 4:03 am

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Thu Mar 14, 2019 2:15 pm

SimonL wrote:
Well.... in order to gain 8000 hours you have to pass 200... And having a guy flying 1000 hour GA and doing his training on his own is not necessary safer than having the airline taking a guy with 0 hours and train him from the beginning.

But yes of course, an experienced pilot is often better than an inexperienced.


Lots of executive level or charter airlines where these guys can build hours flying king airs or small jets. 200 hours in the right seat is borderline criminal imo. Was this his first flight? If not how many hours did he have when he started flying in the right seat?
 
phugoid1982
Posts: 58
Joined: Sat Sep 10, 2016 4:02 am

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Thu Mar 14, 2019 2:19 pm

"Software patch" seems like a band aid. I don't feel like going through this whole thread but has Boeing even considered adding a third AOA probe to adjudicate AOA discrepancies?
 
MSPNWA
Posts: 3413
Joined: Thu Apr 23, 2009 2:48 am

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Thu Mar 14, 2019 2:23 pm

ytz wrote:
Yep. And this is part of the problem with an MCAS type bandaid. You now have pilots worried about issues and pulling the trigger on the MCAS while in a phase of flight where they would be closest to stalling. Add in possible erroneous indications on airspeed and altitude and you have a really dangerous situation for the crew where they can't make informed decisions leading to safe outcomes.


No, that scenario exposes how hysteria and speculation leads to a more dangerous situation than decisions made on facts and reason.
 
SimonL
Posts: 41
Joined: Tue Mar 12, 2019 3:38 pm

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Thu Mar 14, 2019 2:39 pm

I can do the same thing in Sweden. Apply for the ATPL program and ~3 years later i will be qualified to fly airliners and i will not have much more than 200 hours.
 
User avatar
airkas1
Head Screener
Posts: 7870
Joined: Sat Dec 20, 2003 7:01 am

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Thu Mar 14, 2019 2:40 pm

Not sure if mentioned yet, but the NTSB will be assisting the BEA with the analysis and downloading of the flight recorders.

https://twitter.com/ntsb_newsroom/statu ... 60068?s=21
 
ec99
Posts: 262
Joined: Mon Mar 16, 2015 2:18 pm

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobip

Thu Mar 14, 2019 2:47 pm

downdata wrote:
France Has Black Boxes (7:47 a.m.)

The voice and data recorders from the crashed Ethiopian Airlines Boeing 737 Max have arrived in France, a spokesman for the French BEA air-accident investigation office said.

:bouncy: so airbus now has the blackboxes


So I get why they didn't want to send the blackboxes to DC but sending them to France seems like the next worst option. The French Government is reading the boxes. The french government owns 11% of Airbus. Airbus employes tens of thousands of French workers. This would be like Apple leading the investigation into exploding Samsung phones. The french Government stands to benefit financially and politically from a finding that the 737 Max has a inherent problem.

This is just not how one would want an impartial investigation to work.
 
MD80Ttail
Posts: 159
Joined: Wed Dec 07, 2016 1:22 am

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Thu Mar 14, 2019 2:52 pm

I think this is very significant. We have a worldwide grounding of the Max due to this crash. Irreparable harm has been done to the poor souls on board, Boeing, 737, many airlines and great stress placed on the flying public. All of this comes down to the actions and / or reactions of the pilots. One of which had only 200hrs total time. We have no idea If this accident is even related to MCAS. No new information is to be had for 5-10 days. Everything comes down to how this flight crew handeled what started as a routine flight. I think we can agree everything was normal until at least V1–theoretically anyways.

So that’s where we are here and in the world. We know other airlines has pitch and A/P issues with the Max and it was reported. Each time a successful outcome was had for the flight and the pax. JT’s flight crew’s before the fatal flight handled the problem successfully at least one if not three previous times. We need to figure out what dynamic did not allow the fatal flights crew to mitigate whatever problem the plane was throwing at them. Both flights were apparently normal at first and then a problem occurred. That problem may have been MCAS. Once the crew experienced the problem...even MCAS....why couldn’t they have a safe and successful outcome?
Last edited by MD80Ttail on Thu Mar 14, 2019 2:53 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
ytz
Posts: 3529
Joined: Thu Jun 25, 2009 12:31 am

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Thu Mar 14, 2019 2:59 pm

MD80Ttail wrote:
I think this is very significant. We have a worldwide grounding of the Max due to this crash. Irreparable harm has been done to the poor souls on board, Boeing, 737, many airlines and great stress placed on the flying public. All of this comes down to the actions and / or reactions of the pilots. One of which had only 200hrs total time. We have no idea If this accident is even related to MCAS. No new information is to be had for 5-10 days. Everything comes down to how this flight crew handeled what started as a routine flight. I think we can agree everything was normal until at least V1–theoretically anyways.

So that’s where we are here and in the world. We know other airlines has pitch and A/P issues with the Max and it was reported. Each time a successful outcome was had for the flight and the pax. JT’s flight crew’s before the fatal flight handled the problem successfully at least one if not three previous times. We need to figure out what dynamic did not allow the fatal flights crew to mitigate whatever problem the plane was throwing at them. Both flights were apparently normal at first and then a problem occurred. That problem may have been MCAS. Once the crew experienced the problem...even MCAS....why couldn’t they have a safe and successful outcome?


Unless you have definitive proof that the FO didn't react properly, this is seriously defamatory to the dead.

Airplanes have to be designed to be operated by someone licensed. You shouldn't have to rely on a 1500 hr ATPL to prevent the aircraft from lawndarting. If you and other Boeing boosters want to insist that the definition should be extended to 1500 hrs minimum, I hope Boeing is ready to give up tens of billions in worldwide sales. Maybe Boeing should just be restricted to selling in the US. Would you be happy with that outcome?
 
User avatar
william
Posts: 3151
Joined: Thu Jun 10, 1999 1:31 pm

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Thu Mar 14, 2019 3:03 pm

With respect and condolences to the dead and family. The thought of loosing a loved one is sometimes too much to bear.

There are 44 pages in this thread filled with nothing but regurgitation of the same topics. The FO's 200 hour flight time is just one of them..................................Those 200 hours had better been in a 737.
 
PixelPilot
Posts: 254
Joined: Tue Jan 16, 2018 1:19 am

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobip

Thu Mar 14, 2019 3:04 pm

ec99 wrote:
downdata wrote:
France Has Black Boxes (7:47 a.m.)

The voice and data recorders from the crashed Ethiopian Airlines Boeing 737 Max have arrived in France, a spokesman for the French BEA air-accident investigation office said.

:bouncy: so airbus now has the blackboxes


So I get why they didn't want to send the blackboxes to DC but sending them to France seems like the next worst option. The French Government is reading the boxes. The french government owns 11% of Airbus. Airbus employes tens of thousands of French workers. This would be like Apple leading the investigation into exploding Samsung phones. The french Government stands to benefit financially and politically from a finding that the 737 Max has a inherent problem.

This is just not how one would want an impartial investigation to work.


This will only add another layer of antitrust/people dismissing the outcome.
Not a good choice if you ask me.
 
dtw2hyd
Posts: 7093
Joined: Wed Jan 09, 2013 12:11 pm

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Thu Mar 14, 2019 3:08 pm

VeeCee wrote:
If the reports are true that the NTSB was "pressuring" Ethiopian official to give them the FDR and CVR, then the only incompetence I'm seeing right now is from the NTSB. Upon being told that they didn't want it read in DC, the NTSB should have done everything it could to facilitate delivery to another capable agency.


NTSB is a very professional organization. Itself has been fighting FAA-Customer cozy relationship in the type certification process and FAA constantly ignoring their recommendations because those don't meet the cost per body count threshold.

It is sad to see NTSB getting the blame.
 
ytz
Posts: 3529
Joined: Thu Jun 25, 2009 12:31 am

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobip

Thu Mar 14, 2019 3:09 pm

PixelPilot wrote:
ec99 wrote:
downdata wrote:
France Has Black Boxes (7:47 a.m.)

The voice and data recorders from the crashed Ethiopian Airlines Boeing 737 Max have arrived in France, a spokesman for the French BEA air-accident investigation office said.

:bouncy: so airbus now has the blackboxes


So I get why they didn't want to send the blackboxes to DC but sending them to France seems like the next worst option. The French Government is reading the boxes. The french government owns 11% of Airbus. Airbus employes tens of thousands of French workers. This would be like Apple leading the investigation into exploding Samsung phones. The french Government stands to benefit financially and politically from a finding that the 737 Max has a inherent problem.

This is just not how one would want an impartial investigation to work.


This will only add another layer of antitrust/people dismissing the outcome.
Not a good choice if you ask me.


What the rest of the world thinks is irrelevant. The only relevant audience is the Ethiopian public. As long as the think the investigation is credible, the Ethiopian government will be fine.

And personally, I think it's just fine whether it's the NTSB, CAA, EASA, etc. I am sure they are all sharing data and working together to figure it out.
 
CO953
Posts: 515
Joined: Tue Jan 08, 2013 4:05 am

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Thu Mar 14, 2019 3:11 pm

ytz wrote:
Yep. And this is part of the problem with an MCAS type bandaid. You now have pilots worried about issues and pulling the trigger on the MCAS while in a phase of flight where they would be closest to stalling. Add in possible erroneous indications on airspeed and altitude and you have a really dangerous situation for the crew where they can't make informed decisions leading to safe outcomes.


And this is the conundrum that has bothered me from the beginning, and which may be difficult to engineer around:

It's one thing to have enough altitude for stall recovery, but if MCAS kicks in - or is locked out by pilots because it seems to be making matters worse - you have a situation where pilots are quickly trying to first, diagnose, and then second, correct a nose-dive situation too close to the ground, with little time to lose, making a crash more likely. The very act of turning MCAS off may then trigger the destabilizing pitch-up caused by the engine-nacelle drag. Seems like an evil complication of the flight envelope at low altitude. And some higher-time pilots may, through a moment's hesitation, fail the clusterf*k test, and some lower-time ones may pass by seat-of-the-pants luck.
:sigh:
Last edited by CO953 on Thu Mar 14, 2019 3:14 pm, edited 2 times in total.
 
gloom
Posts: 315
Joined: Thu Jun 30, 2016 4:24 pm

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Thu Mar 14, 2019 3:13 pm

vfw614 wrote:
Apparently of wasting time in discussions with US officials who pestered them to let the NTSB do the investigation against Ethiopia's wishes to have the investigation done by an European agency....


There was never such discussions. Plane crashed on Ethiopian ground, been flying under Ethiopian flag ;) and it's Ethiopia's choice to pick their partners. US partners (NTSB and Boeing) will be part of it anyways, but probably they felt there was more to add to transparency of the process. Was it justified? Probably no, but then the questions arose from other MAX crash, so I guess even at a cost of days, it's still worth it. And it was their decision, anyways.

Cheers,
Adam
 
ytz
Posts: 3529
Joined: Thu Jun 25, 2009 12:31 am

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Thu Mar 14, 2019 3:13 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
VeeCee wrote:
If the reports are true that the NTSB was "pressuring" Ethiopian official to give them the FDR and CVR, then the only incompetence I'm seeing right now is from the NTSB. Upon being told that they didn't want it read in DC, the NTSB should have done everything it could to facilitate delivery to another capable agency.


NTSB is a very professional organization. Itself has been fighting FAA-Customer cozy relationship in the type certification process and FAA constantly ignoring their recommendations because those don't meet the cost per body count threshold.

It is sad to see NTSB getting the blame.


This. Truly sad to see NTSB taking some collateral reputational hits. They are unimpeachable on their professionalism. The FAA, however, might have to answer some questions when this is all over.
 
PixelPilot
Posts: 254
Joined: Tue Jan 16, 2018 1:19 am

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobip

Thu Mar 14, 2019 3:16 pm

ytz wrote:
PixelPilot wrote:
ec99 wrote:

So I get why they didn't want to send the blackboxes to DC but sending them to France seems like the next worst option. The French Government is reading the boxes. The french government owns 11% of Airbus. Airbus employes tens of thousands of French workers. This would be like Apple leading the investigation into exploding Samsung phones. The french Government stands to benefit financially and politically from a finding that the 737 Max has a inherent problem.

This is just not how one would want an impartial investigation to work.


This will only add another layer of antitrust/people dismissing the outcome.
Not a good choice if you ask me.


What the rest of the world thinks is irrelevant. The only relevant audience is the Ethiopian public. As long as the think the investigation is credible, the Ethiopian government will be fine.

And personally, I think it's just fine whether it's the NTSB, CAA, EASA, etc. I am sure they are all sharing data and working together to figure it out.


It is quite relevant actually when you allow a direct competitor to investigate a problem. Seems like conflict of interest to me.
Wasn't Airbus that trained Lion Air btw? Unless I am confusing something here.
 
osiris30
Posts: 2655
Joined: Sat Sep 30, 2006 10:16 am

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Thu Mar 14, 2019 3:17 pm

mandala499 wrote:
flybucky wrote:
Well, after further analysis, I now believe the FR24's "airborne" point is wrong, because I looked up the GPS coordinates for that point, and it is less than 2000 ft from the start of the takeoff roll. However, notice that spot is 22 ft higher than the start of the takeoff roll, so I'm guessing that was enough altitude change for FR24's computer to consider it "airborne". (The altitude resolution is 25 ft)

---

I think the real airborne point was at 25s, which was 174 knots, and when the Vertical Speed started to increase significantly. I can't explain the Altitude drop at 27s—it does not make sense since Vertical Speed was not negative.

As suspected. It just didn't make sense for the aircraft to be airborne at such a low speed.

Angle of attack during the rotation can produce these altitude deviations, and incorrect AOA correction... the VSI didn't show this because it's based on the inertial reference system...

The airport elevation is 7500ft or so, but with barometer pressure at 1029mb at the time of the accident, the altitude showing 7200ft would indicate the numbers used was based on the altitude on a 1013mb barometer setting. The pilots would have used 1029, but the default ADS-B altitude transmitted uses 1013mb...


So how does this sound:

Incorrect airpseed reading, pilot think they are Vr but really aren't.
Pull back and nose lifts.
Air/Ground trigger (flight is now 'airborne')
Nose is being held off by pilots fighting to get in the air, not sure why they aren't.
AC continues accelerating down runway.
V increases to where the AC can rotate properly and go.

At this point pilots are royally confused in AC. Probably should have aborted take off but thought they were well past Vr when they really were not.

Then... who knows.
I don't care what you think of my opinion. It's my opinion, so have a nice day :)
 
gloom
Posts: 315
Joined: Thu Jun 30, 2016 4:24 pm

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobip

Thu Mar 14, 2019 3:20 pm

PixelPilot wrote:
It is quite relevant actually when you allow a direct competitor to investigate a problem. Seems like conflict of interest to me.


What would be more conflicting:
a) NTSB reading, supporting etc
b) BEA reading, supporting with support from NTSB (guaranteed by US-built plane)?

You just opted for A being more credible. How's that?

Wasn't Airbus that trained Lion Air btw? Unless I am confusing something here.


Is it a question, thesis, or what? You know we're talking over 150 dead here, 180 in other similar crash, and all readers deserve fact verification by poster, right? Otherwise, it's not a credible anymore.

Cheers,
Adam
Last edited by gloom on Thu Mar 14, 2019 3:21 pm, edited 2 times in total.
 
seb76
Posts: 51
Joined: Tue May 20, 2008 5:02 pm

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Thu Mar 14, 2019 3:23 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
VeeCee wrote:
If the reports are true that the NTSB was "pressuring" Ethiopian official to give them the FDR and CVR, then the only incompetence I'm seeing right now is from the NTSB. Upon being told that they didn't want it read in DC, the NTSB should have done everything it could to facilitate delivery to another capable agency.


NTSB is a very professional organization. Itself has been fighting FAA-Customer cozy relationship in the type certification process and FAA constantly ignoring their recommendations because those don't meet the cost per body count threshold.

It is sad to see NTSB getting the blame.


I would not see this as a blame. Whoever reads the contents of the FDR and CVR is not relevant after all, as long as those doing it take all necessary precautions to proceed in the less destructive way to ensure the maximum of data can be recovered.
I'm quite confident that the BEA will keep the NTSB in the loop and share all the raw data they collect to allow them to work in the best conditions. I think it's also clear for everyone, also in EU and Kenya that the NTSB is not the FAA just like the BEA is not the DGAC. They are not a regulating authority: their role is to investigate, tell the truth (convenient or not) and issue recommendations with the objective of making air travel safer for everybody.
 
mrbots
Posts: 31
Joined: Tue Mar 12, 2019 5:31 pm

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Thu Mar 14, 2019 3:23 pm

Does it really matter where the FDR and CVR go? How do you bias flight data and voice recordings? There'd be third parties present either way. It's not like the NTSB, EASA, BEA, etc. don't deal with each other and work together regularly. The boxes should have been on their way anywhere capable immediately after they were discovered. Whatever has been holding up getting the boxes to someone for two days needs to be investigated. I don't care if it was Trump, NTSB, Ethiopia, BEA, etc. this shit should not happen after an accident. People died, loved ones are in grieving, and companies are losing money by the second, not the time for pissing matches.
 
MD80Ttail
Posts: 159
Joined: Wed Dec 07, 2016 1:22 am

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Thu Mar 14, 2019 3:24 pm

ytz wrote:
MD80Ttail wrote:
I think this is very significant. We have a worldwide grounding of the Max due to this crash. Irreparable harm has been done to the poor souls on board, Boeing, 737, many airlines and great stress placed on the flying public. All of this comes down to the actions and / or reactions of the pilots. One of which had only 200hrs total time. We have no idea If this accident is even related to MCAS. No new information is to be had for 5-10 days. Everything comes down to how this flight crew handeled what started as a routine flight. I think we can agree everything was normal until at least V1–theoretically anyways.

So that’s where we are here and in the world. We know other airlines has pitch and A/P issues with the Max and it was reported. Each time a successful outcome was had for the flight and the pax. JT’s flight crew’s before the fatal flight handled the problem successfully at least one if not three previous times. We need to figure out what dynamic did not allow the fatal flights crew to mitigate whatever problem the plane was throwing at them. Both flights were apparently normal at first and then a problem occurred. That problem may have been MCAS. Once the crew experienced the problem...even MCAS....why couldn’t they have a safe and successful outcome?


Unless you have definitive proof that the FO didn't react properly, this is seriously defamatory to the dead.

Airplanes have to be designed to be operated by someone licensed. You shouldn't have to rely on a 1500 hr ATPL to prevent the aircraft from lawndarting. If you and other Boeing boosters want to insist that the definition should be extended to 1500 hrs minimum, I hope Boeing is ready to give up tens of billions in worldwide sales. Maybe Boeing should just be restricted to selling in the US. Would you be happy with that outcome?



My point about the FOs 200hr Total time is not about weather he or she did anything wrong or not. Even IF he or she did everything right my point is a 200hr total time pilot does not provide for the best possible outcomes for the fight and passenger. Most likely he or she didn’t do anything wrong. I have never once said that. My concern, and I believe it’s very valid, is at 200hrs total time it’s impossible to bring anything more than standard normal operations experience to the flight deck. A pilot with more hours would have a bigger “tool bag” from which to draw experience from in problem solving. Why everyone has so much vitriol for what to me is extremely obvious I have no idea.

Put another way I just checked my car computer and in the last 10,000 miles I’ve averaged a speed of 36 mph. I’m guessing that’s pretty avaerge for most folks in my area with a mix of Highway and city driving. 36mph multipled by 200hrs is 7,200 miles driven. So it’s ok for a pilot that has the equivalent of 7,200 miles in their entire lifetime of “driving” experience to be considered safe and fully vetted to fly a mainline pax aircraft wide or narrow body, domestic or international and is equally as good and expeienced as someone with 8,000hrs??? I don’t think you can even get a license to drive a school bus in most places with 50 kids on board with a lifetime experience of 7,200 miles behind the wheel. This is a huge issue.
 
PixelPilot
Posts: 254
Joined: Tue Jan 16, 2018 1:19 am

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobip

Thu Mar 14, 2019 3:25 pm

gloom wrote:
PixelPilot wrote:
It is quite relevant actually when you allow a direct competitor to investigate a problem. Seems like conflict of interest to me.


What would be more conflicting:
a) NTSB reading, supporting etc
b) BEA reading, supporting with support from NTSB (guaranteed by US-built plane)?

You just opted for A being more credible. How's that?

Wasn't Airbus that trained Lion Air btw? Unless I am confusing something here.


Is it a question, thesis, or what? You know we're talking over 150 dead here, 180 in other similar crash, and all readers deserve fact verification by poster, right? Otherwise, it's not a credible anymore.

Cheers,
Adam


I was thinking more in the lines of AAIB.
As for the airbus training of Lion Air Group I'll try to dig up what I am referring to. Can't find the article.
 
Waterbomber2
Posts: 448
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 3:44 am

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobip

Thu Mar 14, 2019 3:33 pm

ec99 wrote:
downdata wrote:
France Has Black Boxes (7:47 a.m.)

The voice and data recorders from the crashed Ethiopian Airlines Boeing 737 Max have arrived in France, a spokesman for the French BEA air-accident investigation office said.

:bouncy: so airbus now has the blackboxes


So I get why they didn't want to send the blackboxes to DC but sending them to France seems like the next worst option. The French Government is reading the boxes. The french government owns 11% of Airbus. Airbus employes tens of thousands of French workers. This would be like Apple leading the investigation into exploding Samsung phones. The french Government stands to benefit financially and politically from a finding that the 737 Max has a inherent problem.

This is just not how one would want an impartial investigation to work.


I disagree.
It avoids any form of evidence tampering as the NTSB and Ethiopian investigators will be watching closely.
The BEA hasn't always been perfect but they are a very respectable entity.
The NTSB is also a very respectable entity, but the way the FAA ran the Lion Air show with Boeing was despicable, so I think that the Ethiopian investigators are doing a very good job of ensuring that all angles are covered.
 
ytz
Posts: 3529
Joined: Thu Jun 25, 2009 12:31 am

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobip

Thu Mar 14, 2019 3:36 pm

PixelPilot wrote:
ytz wrote:
PixelPilot wrote:

This will only add another layer of antitrust/people dismissing the outcome.
Not a good choice if you ask me.


What the rest of the world thinks is irrelevant. The only relevant audience is the Ethiopian public. As long as the think the investigation is credible, the Ethiopian government will be fine.

And personally, I think it's just fine whether it's the NTSB, CAA, EASA, etc. I am sure they are all sharing data and working together to figure it out.


It is quite relevant actually when you allow a direct competitor to investigate a problem. Seems like conflict of interest to me.
Wasn't Airbus that trained Lion Air btw? Unless I am confusing something here.


Relevant to who? You? Me? We're not the target audience. If the Ethiopian public is happy with the French leading the inquiry, then so am I.
 
User avatar
trpmb6
Posts: 2712
Joined: Thu Apr 19, 2018 5:45 pm

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Thu Mar 14, 2019 3:38 pm

casinterest wrote:
trpmb6 wrote:
The more its discussed and the more I think about the data available... I'm just not convinced MCAS was in play. At this point I'm more concerned that they may have hit the trim cutoff switches prematurely with the fear that they were experiencing an MCAS issue.




I read a report that they think the AoA sensors had a 20 degree disagreement in Lion Air 601, and this is what Boeing is working on in their software fix to handle.

That issue would present as soon as you took off, and if you turned off autopilot to fly the plane, the MCAS still kicks in unless you disable the trim stabilizers. I think what Boeing is trying to fix in software is to handle the disagreement, and make sure the pilots know that MCAS is still active though documentation and training. They may also modify the MCAS behavior in other ways to let the pilots know that an auto system is still engaged even though autopilot is off.

So I think MCAS was in play in both crashes once the Auto Pilot was off.


I suppose I should clarify that a primary driver in my thought here is that, in my opinion, they wouldn't have retracted flaps. I suppose it's possible they retracted flaps fairly quickly, but I just don't believe that to be the case. There are other posts upstream that detail the scenario a little bit better, but it seems like they had control issues before they would have retracted flaps, and if that is the case, it wasn't MCAS related.
 
LTC8K6
Posts: 1534
Joined: Fri Jun 05, 2009 8:36 pm

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Thu Mar 14, 2019 3:43 pm

I'm happy with the BEA. I think they handled AF447 well.
 
ytz
Posts: 3529
Joined: Thu Jun 25, 2009 12:31 am

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Thu Mar 14, 2019 3:44 pm

MD80Ttail wrote:
ytz wrote:
MD80Ttail wrote:
I think this is very significant. We have a worldwide grounding of the Max due to this crash. Irreparable harm has been done to the poor souls on board, Boeing, 737, many airlines and great stress placed on the flying public. All of this comes down to the actions and / or reactions of the pilots. One of which had only 200hrs total time. We have no idea If this accident is even related to MCAS. No new information is to be had for 5-10 days. Everything comes down to how this flight crew handeled what started as a routine flight. I think we can agree everything was normal until at least V1–theoretically anyways.

So that’s where we are here and in the world. We know other airlines has pitch and A/P issues with the Max and it was reported. Each time a successful outcome was had for the flight and the pax. JT’s flight crew’s before the fatal flight handled the problem successfully at least one if not three previous times. We need to figure out what dynamic did not allow the fatal flights crew to mitigate whatever problem the plane was throwing at them. Both flights were apparently normal at first and then a problem occurred. That problem may have been MCAS. Once the crew experienced the problem...even MCAS....why couldn’t they have a safe and successful outcome?


Unless you have definitive proof that the FO didn't react properly, this is seriously defamatory to the dead.

Airplanes have to be designed to be operated by someone licensed. You shouldn't have to rely on a 1500 hr ATPL to prevent the aircraft from lawndarting. If you and other Boeing boosters want to insist that the definition should be extended to 1500 hrs minimum, I hope Boeing is ready to give up tens of billions in worldwide sales. Maybe Boeing should just be restricted to selling in the US. Would you be happy with that outcome?



My point about the FOs 200hr Total time is not about weather he or she did anything wrong or not. Even IF he or she did everything right my point is a 200hr total time pilot does not provide for the best possible outcomes for the fight and passenger. Most likely he or she didn’t do anything wrong. I have never once said that. My concern, and I believe it’s very valid, is at 200hrs total time it’s impossible to bring anything more than standard normal operations experience to the flight deck. A pilot with more hours would have a bigger “tool bag” from which to draw experience from in problem solving. Why everyone has so much vitriol for what to me is extremely obvious I have no idea.


Because the rest of us see this as a red herring. "Could the 200 hr FO have crashed the plane? I don't know. I am just asking what if he crashed the plane." This is some Fox News worthy line of discussion.

Given your time in the cockpit, one would think you'd know enough about aviation safety that you'd know that crashes happen more than one reason. I would also think as a fellow aviator you'd have more respect for the dead than to question their professionalism before their bodies have been buried.

You also dodged my question. Is it your sincere belief that the operation of all 737s should be restricted only to FOs who have 1500 hrs? And if that is the case, are you okay with severe restrictions on Boeing's sales?
 
User avatar
placeholder
Posts: 21
Joined: Sun Jul 30, 2017 1:44 am

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobip

Thu Mar 14, 2019 3:48 pm

ec99 wrote:
downdata wrote:
France Has Black Boxes (7:47 a.m.)

The voice and data recorders from the crashed Ethiopian Airlines Boeing 737 Max have arrived in France, a spokesman for the French BEA air-accident investigation office said.

:bouncy: so airbus now has the blackboxes


So I get why they didn't want to send the blackboxes to DC but sending them to France seems like the next worst option. The French Government is reading the boxes. The french government owns 11% of Airbus. Airbus employes tens of thousands of French workers. This would be like Apple leading the investigation into exploding Samsung phones. The french Government stands to benefit financially and politically from a finding that the 737 Max has a inherent problem.

This is just not how one would want an impartial investigation to work.


So just for my understanding if an AF B777 Crashes and the Boxes Go back to France for evaluation and finding the cause for the Crash they're also biased then ?

The BEA might be Governement owned but i would expect the NTSB to participate and control in finding the Cause for what happened to the poor 150+ Souls on Board.

The amount of accusations and wild guessing in this Thread is so skyhigh that reading it is almost painful for a sane Person, so Please let them investigate and stop the wild Theorys and Guessing....

Cant be that hard...
Old Eurowings 1993 until 2010, gone but never forgotten !

Flown on: A319/320/321, A300, A310, A342/343/346, A380, DC10, MD-11, MD-82/83, B733/734/735/738, B752/753, B742/744, RJ85/100, ATR-42/72. DHC8-1/2/3/4, L410, Twin Otter
 
dtw2hyd
Posts: 7093
Joined: Wed Jan 09, 2013 12:11 pm

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Thu Mar 14, 2019 3:51 pm

mrbots wrote:
Does it really matter where the FDR and CVR go? How do you bias flight data and voice recordings? There'd be third parties present either way. It's not like the NTSB, EASA, BEA, etc. don't deal with each other and work together regularly. The boxes should have been on their way anywhere capable immediately after they were discovered. Whatever has been holding up getting the boxes to someone for two days needs to be investigated. I don't care if it was Trump, NTSB, Ethiopia, BEA, etc. this shit should not happen after an accident. People died, loved ones are in grieving, and companies are losing money by the second, not the time for pissing matches.


End of the day it is probably some guy from Honeywell actually downloading the data. Rest all is posturing and politics.
 
osiris30
Posts: 2655
Joined: Sat Sep 30, 2006 10:16 am

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Thu Mar 14, 2019 3:54 pm

phugoid1982 wrote:
"Software patch" seems like a band aid. I don't feel like going through this whole thread but has Boeing even considered adding a third AOA probe to adjudicate AOA discrepancies?


Won't happen in anywhere near the time needed. The entire FCS would have to be rewritten and validated. That is a fix that would take years and frankly would add very little actual safety vs. perceived safety.

Authority limits and proper alerting in the cockpit solve 99% of the issue. A rare issue. Leaving 1% of a small fraction of a percent of flights where there may be a problem. At which point there are other things just as likely to fail and long before that point statistically the humans flying the machine will fail.
I don't care what you think of my opinion. It's my opinion, so have a nice day :)
 
LTC8K6
Posts: 1534
Joined: Fri Jun 05, 2009 8:36 pm

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Thu Mar 14, 2019 3:55 pm

Supposedly BEA will only report to Ethiopian authorities.

But I'm sure we will get leaks.

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos