MD80Ttail
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Thu Mar 14, 2019 4:01 pm

ytz wrote:
MD80Ttail wrote:
ytz wrote:

Unless you have definitive proof that the FO didn't react properly, this is seriously defamatory to the dead.

Airplanes have to be designed to be operated by someone licensed. You shouldn't have to rely on a 1500 hr ATPL to prevent the aircraft from lawndarting. If you and other Boeing boosters want to insist that the definition should be extended to 1500 hrs minimum, I hope Boeing is ready to give up tens of billions in worldwide sales. Maybe Boeing should just be restricted to selling in the US. Would you be happy with that outcome?



My point about the FOs 200hr Total time is not about weather he or she did anything wrong or not. Even IF he or she did everything right my point is a 200hr total time pilot does not provide for the best possible outcomes for the fight and passenger. Most likely he or she didn’t do anything wrong. I have never once said that. My concern, and I believe it’s very valid, is at 200hrs total time it’s impossible to bring anything more than standard normal operations experience to the flight deck. A pilot with more hours would have a bigger “tool bag” from which to draw experience from in problem solving. Why everyone has so much vitriol for what to me is extremely obvious I have no idea.


Because the rest of us see this as a red herring. "Could the 200 hr FO have crashed the plane? I don't know. I am just asking what if he crashed the plane." This is some Fox News worthy line of discussion.

Given your time in the cockpit, one would think you'd know enough about aviation safety that you'd know that crashes happen more than one reason. I would also think as a fellow aviator you'd have more respect for the dead than to question their professionalism before their bodies have been buried.

You also dodged my question. Is it your sincere belief that the operation of all 737s should be restricted only to FOs who have 1500 hrs? And if that is the case, are you okay with severe restrictions on Boeing's sales?


Yes I believe there should a minimum number of hours TT, PIC, Complex, twin and actual IMC time before any pilot is put into any mainline aircraft. I think that’s obvious by my comments but if it helps I unequivocally state my opinion—done.

Your question about restricting Boeing’s sales is irrelevant as the same low time pilots go into Airbus and many other manufacturers of aircraft. It’s not for Boeing, Airbus, FAA, NTSB, USA or me to put restrictions on airlines operating outside of the US. Yes, I’m aware some of these low TT pilots fly into and out of US airspace. They are technically qualified and that’s fine by me. The issue is up to the respective airlines and their direct regulatory bodies to decide. A company that makes a hammer really has no say as to the quality of the carpenter that is going to use it. In this case the issue should be decided by the respective airlines, countries and free market flying public. I have flown on both ET and JT as was as many other airlines. Several blacklisted into the EU. I did so with full knowledge.

I do know crashes happen for more than one reason. Frankly MCAS is a red herring. It might be a problem. Most likely is a problem. However, it shouldn’t bring down the plane. The pilots should be able to maintain control and land safely. I think so far JT definitely had MCAS issues but am quite certain the accident would not have happened at most airlines, certainly not first world airlines bc the plane would never have been dispatched. That makes me a racist I guess so whatever. I truly believe most airlines would not have dispatched that plane. I believe in JT we will find training, proficiency hand flying, maintenance and design will all be factors. With ET I’m having a hard time believing based on what we know so far MCAS was responsible for the flight control problems bc the problems apparently started at VR. Speculation. But reasonable. Was it part of the problem? Perhaps likely.

You will never convince me a 200hr pilot belongs in the cockpit of a mainline plane anywhere. Yes I know it’s done. Yes the stats are pretty good overall. Yes it will continue. Yes I understand why. Most likely the FO didn’t do anything wrong. Followed what he was taught. I believe the odds of a better outcome would have been greater with a more experienced crew overall. That’s not to say we still wouldn’t have had a crash.
 
Heinkel
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobip

Thu Mar 14, 2019 4:08 pm

PixelPilot wrote:
Wasn't Airbus that trained Lion Air btw? Unless I am confusing something here.


How can Airbus train Lion Air crew to fly Boeing aircraft?
 
barney captain
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Thu Mar 14, 2019 4:10 pm

If the FO only had 200 hours of total flight time - and assuming this wasn't his first flight with the airline - that means he was in the right seat of the MAX with even less. Completely unacceptable imo. I'm not suggesting s/he played any role in the crash - but if there are FO's out there currently with less than 200 hours flying these aircraft, they are more of a liability than an asset. Far more.

I understand there are accelerated training programs that are very successful, and while I'm not suggesting they need the US requirement of 1500 hours, less than 200 is simply not enough - even with those programs.
Last edited by barney captain on Thu Mar 14, 2019 4:13 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Southeast Of Disorder
 
mrbots
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Thu Mar 14, 2019 4:12 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
mrbots wrote:
Does it really matter where the FDR and CVR go? How do you bias flight data and voice recordings? There'd be third parties present either way. It's not like the NTSB, EASA, BEA, etc. don't deal with each other and work together regularly. The boxes should have been on their way anywhere capable immediately after they were discovered. Whatever has been holding up getting the boxes to someone for two days needs to be investigated. I don't care if it was Trump, NTSB, Ethiopia, BEA, etc. this shit should not happen after an accident. People died, loved ones are in grieving, and companies are losing money by the second, not the time for pissing matches.


End of the day it is probably some guy from Honeywell actually downloading the data. Rest all is posturing and politics.


Right! That's what's agitating, it's been two days and they're just now getting somewhere because...??? Whether it was Washington trying to influence, Ethiopia throwing darts at anwhere but the US, Europeans (besides France) opting out to steer clear, or some other posturing, it's crap. I just hate policitical BS, especially when it interferes with what should have none. It should be pick the closest investigative body capable and get it there ASAP.
 
WIederling
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Thu Mar 14, 2019 4:16 pm

CARST wrote:
What I don't get here ... and perhaps someone has an explanation for me...

8A) Or are we looking into something completely different here?
8B) Might we have a way bigger problem with the MAX, that is not only related to a failing MCAS in case of a faulty AOA sensor?


MCAS works (badly ) as expected from the design.
Changing AoA sensor and effecting no change would indicate that the cause is further down the signal path.

It has been mentioned that there is done some postprocessing on all sensor input.
Does the system actually munge all sensors plus GPS together computes a synthetic triple and then hands it out as two fake sets of data that are presented as "this directly from hardware input left" and "this directly from hardware input right" ?
Murphy is an optimist
 
osiris30
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Thu Mar 14, 2019 4:18 pm

LTC8K6 wrote:
Supposedly BEA will only report to Ethiopian authorities.

But I'm sure we will get leaks.


The BEA's data will go to all parties involved in the investigation.

Ethiopian authorities, Boeing, NTSB, Engine makers, and anyone else who may have officially been joined as a 'party' to the investigation (which is not entirely clear who is on the exhaustive list at this time).
I don't care what you think of my opinion. It's my opinion, so have a nice day :)
 
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qf789
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Thu Mar 14, 2019 4:22 pm

Again can we just debate the topic without making it personal. Also please keep the swearing out of the discussion. If you have a issue with another user please report the post rather than taking matters into your own hands
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SomebodyInTLS
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Thu Mar 14, 2019 4:23 pm

WIederling wrote:
CARST wrote:
What I don't get here ... and perhaps someone has an explanation for me...

8A) Or are we looking into something completely different here?
8B) Might we have a way bigger problem with the MAX, that is not only related to a failing MCAS in case of a faulty AOA sensor?


MCAS works (badly ) as expected from the design.
Changing AoA sensor and effecting no change would indicate that the cause is further down the signal path.

It has been mentioned that there is done some postprocessing on all sensor input.
Does the system actually munge all sensors plus GPS together computes a synthetic triple and then hands it out as two fake sets of data that are presented as "this directly from hardware input left" and "this directly from hardware input right" ?


Pretty sure it's not that bad. Somewhere in the middle of the Lion Air thread things got quite technical (circuit diagrams and everything) about how the data is handled. It revealed the MCAS dependence on one input, and shows how airspeed and AoA is interpreted by individual port & starboard units based on sensor input from both sides. I think there is some cross-talk between airspeed and AoA calculation - which may interest some in this thread - but GPS is not in the mix.
"As with most things related to aircraft design, it's all about the trade-offs and much more nuanced than A.net likes to make out."
 
Elementalism
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Thu Mar 14, 2019 4:23 pm

ytz wrote:
MD80Ttail wrote:
I think this is very significant. We have a worldwide grounding of the Max due to this crash. Irreparable harm has been done to the poor souls on board, Boeing, 737, many airlines and great stress placed on the flying public. All of this comes down to the actions and / or reactions of the pilots. One of which had only 200hrs total time. We have no idea If this accident is even related to MCAS. No new information is to be had for 5-10 days. Everything comes down to how this flight crew handeled what started as a routine flight. I think we can agree everything was normal until at least V1–theoretically anyways.

So that’s where we are here and in the world. We know other airlines has pitch and A/P issues with the Max and it was reported. Each time a successful outcome was had for the flight and the pax. JT’s flight crew’s before the fatal flight handled the problem successfully at least one if not three previous times. We need to figure out what dynamic did not allow the fatal flights crew to mitigate whatever problem the plane was throwing at them. Both flights were apparently normal at first and then a problem occurred. That problem may have been MCAS. Once the crew experienced the problem...even MCAS....why couldn’t they have a safe and successful outcome?


Unless you have definitive proof that the FO didn't react properly, this is seriously defamatory to the dead.

Airplanes have to be designed to be operated by someone licensed. You shouldn't have to rely on a 1500 hr ATPL to prevent the aircraft from lawndarting. If you and other Boeing boosters want to insist that the definition should be extended to 1500 hrs minimum, I hope Boeing is ready to give up tens of billions in worldwide sales. Maybe Boeing should just be restricted to selling in the US. Would you be happy with that outcome?


In the US 200 hours isnt even allowed for a commercial license to fly right seat for cargo. Need a min of 250. There is a reason why the FAA requires so many hours to fly passengers. More hours means more experience. More experience gives a higher chance of a positive outcome should a crisis in the cockpit happen. Not even sure why this is debatable. And it is really weird to hear people talk about grounding the Max just in case there is a design flaw because of passenger safety. Then dismiss the hour requirement which is set for passenger safety.

This is the equivalent of hiring a college grad to perform a senior level position. Nobody in their right mind would do such a thing due to the lack of experience.
 
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Finn350
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Thu Mar 14, 2019 4:27 pm

MD80Ttail wrote:
My point about the FOs 200hr Total time is not about weather he or she did anything wrong or not. Even IF he or she did everything right my point is a 200hr total time pilot does not provide for the best possible outcomes for the fight and passenger. Most likely he or she didn’t do anything wrong. I have never once said that. My concern, and I believe it’s very valid, is at 200hrs total time it’s impossible to bring anything more than standard normal operations experience to the flight deck. A pilot with more hours would have a bigger “tool bag” from which to draw experience from in problem solving. Why everyone has so much vitriol for what to me is extremely obvious I have no idea.

Put another way I just checked my car computer and in the last 10,000 miles I’ve averaged a speed of 36 mph. I’m guessing that’s pretty avaerge for most folks in my area with a mix of Highway and city driving. 36mph multipled by 200hrs is 7,200 miles driven. So it’s ok for a pilot that has the equivalent of 7,200 miles in their entire lifetime of “driving” experience to be considered safe and fully vetted to fly a mainline pax aircraft wide or narrow body, domestic or international and is equally as good and expeienced as someone with 8,000hrs??? I don’t think you can even get a license to drive a school bus in most places with 50 kids on board with a lifetime experience of 7,200 miles behind the wheel. This is a huge issue.


Let's put it this way: MCAS implementation will likely be at least a contributing factor if not the root cause of this accident based on the similarities between this flight and Lion air flight. What about the pilot experience then? If Boeing 737MAX is such a complex machine to fly that 200 flying hours is not adequate experience to fly it safely, then Boeing should have had for example 2,500 flying hours experience as a requirement for the 737 MAX pilots. In that case contributing factor to the accident would be inadequate pilot requirements as stated by the manufacturer.
 
Elementalism
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Thu Mar 14, 2019 4:36 pm

Finn350 wrote:
MD80Ttail wrote:
My point about the FOs 200hr Total time is not about weather he or she did anything wrong or not. Even IF he or she did everything right my point is a 200hr total time pilot does not provide for the best possible outcomes for the fight and passenger. Most likely he or she didn’t do anything wrong. I have never once said that. My concern, and I believe it’s very valid, is at 200hrs total time it’s impossible to bring anything more than standard normal operations experience to the flight deck. A pilot with more hours would have a bigger “tool bag” from which to draw experience from in problem solving. Why everyone has so much vitriol for what to me is extremely obvious I have no idea.

Put another way I just checked my car computer and in the last 10,000 miles I’ve averaged a speed of 36 mph. I’m guessing that’s pretty avaerge for most folks in my area with a mix of Highway and city driving. 36mph multipled by 200hrs is 7,200 miles driven. So it’s ok for a pilot that has the equivalent of 7,200 miles in their entire lifetime of “driving” experience to be considered safe and fully vetted to fly a mainline pax aircraft wide or narrow body, domestic or international and is equally as good and expeienced as someone with 8,000hrs??? I don’t think you can even get a license to drive a school bus in most places with 50 kids on board with a lifetime experience of 7,200 miles behind the wheel. This is a huge issue.


Let's put it this way: MCAS implementation will likely be at least a contributing factor if not the root cause of this accident based on the similarities between this flight and Lion air flight. What about the pilot experience then? If Boeing 737MAX is such a complex machine to fly that 200 flying hours is not adequate experience to fly it safely, then Boeing should have had for example 2,500 flying hours experience as a requirement for the 737 MAX pilots. In that case contributing cause to the accident would be inadequate pilot requirements as stated by the manufacturer.


It isnt up to Boeing to set the rules for each countries flight requirements. Common sense prevails and sub 200 hour pilots in mainline aircraft is not commonsense. Anyways that policy is set by respective govts\aviation authority. If the govts are going to be so irresponsible they will allow a sub 200 hours FO in a mainline craft. Then the people in that country need to voice their complaints to change the policy. I am really surprised the EU allows an airline to fly into their space with pilots with so little experience.

I am now interested in knowing how many hours this FO had when he first started flying mainline aircraft. If he is at 200 now. That means he started with even lower flight time. I have dabbled in GA and have about 75 hours in single engine piston. Hard to believe I nearly have half the hours of a pilot sitting right seat in a mainline aircraft.
 
WIederling
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Thu Mar 14, 2019 4:37 pm

Elementalism wrote:
This is the equivalent of hiring a college grad to perform a senior level position. Nobody in their right mind would do such a thing due to the lack of experience.


the requirements shift from 250 to 1500 hours came about in 2013.
Under the pretext of increasing safety ( ref Colgan, both pilots had hours to no end.)
with a designed in intention of advantaging military pilots transfering into civil life:
https://www.faa.gov/news/press_releases ... wsId=14838
( its in the catalog presented in the link )

Could you please show the resultant significant increase in commercial flying safety?

Only thing visible is pilot shortage and thus airlines having to scrape the bottom coming up with
pilots that have the hours but are apparently sub par in effectively gained competence.
Murphy is an optimist
 
LTC8K6
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Thu Mar 14, 2019 4:38 pm

osiris30 wrote:
LTC8K6 wrote:
Supposedly BEA will only report to Ethiopian authorities.

But I'm sure we will get leaks.


The BEA's data will go to all parties involved in the investigation.

Ethiopian authorities, Boeing, NTSB, Engine makers, and anyone else who may have officially been joined as a 'party' to the investigation (which is not entirely clear who is on the exhaustive list at this time).


My understanding is that Ethiopian investigators are at BEA and will handle the data, not BEA.

BEA is just going to extract it for them.
 
mxaxai
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Thu Mar 14, 2019 4:41 pm

Elementalism wrote:
I am now interested in knowing how many hours this FO had when he first started flying mainline aircraft. If he is at 200 now. That means he started with even lower flight time. I have dabbled in GA and have about 75 hours in single engine piston. Hard to believe I nearly have half the hours of a pilot sitting right seat in a mainline aircraft.

You know that (a) much of that time is spent in business jets, not in single engine pistons and (b) simulator training is a large part of modern commercial training, right?

Btw, why the distinction to "mainline" aircraft? Is it that much better if a 110-seat regional aircraft crashes?
 
hivue
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Thu Mar 14, 2019 4:41 pm

osiris30 wrote:
LTC8K6 wrote:
Supposedly BEA will only report to Ethiopian authorities.

But I'm sure we will get leaks.


The BEA's data will go to all parties involved in the investigation.

Ethiopian authorities, Boeing, NTSB, Engine makers, and anyone else who may have officially been joined as a 'party' to the investigation (which is not entirely clear who is on the exhaustive list at this time).


What makes you think that? Has the Lion Air CVR data gone to "all parties involved?" If it has, why have we not seen any leaks of that, especially given the recently significantly increased profile of the whole MAX issue.
"You're sitting. In a chair. In the SKY!!" ~ Louis C.K.
 
cc2314
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Thu Mar 14, 2019 4:43 pm

It's becoming very repetitive, the 200hr topic.If it were a contributing factor its all in hindsight,so it took a catastrophic crash for us all to note how inadequate 200hrs actually is.
There is also a possibility this was a failure no amount of experience could help you with.
Deleted
 
Elementalism
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Thu Mar 14, 2019 4:45 pm

WIederling wrote:
Elementalism wrote:
This is the equivalent of hiring a college grad to perform a senior level position. Nobody in their right mind would do such a thing due to the lack of experience.


the requirements shift from 250 to 1500 hours came about in 2013.
Under the pretext of increasing safety ( ref Colgan, both pilots had hours to no end.)
with a designed in intention of advantaging military pilots transfering into civil life:
https://www.faa.gov/news/press_releases ... wsId=14838
( its in the catalog presented in the link )

Could you please show the resultant significant increase in commercial flying safety?

Only thing visible is pilot shortage and thus airlines having to scrape the bottom coming up with
pilots that have the hours but are apparently sub par in effectively gained competence.


Are you really arguing less experience and training requirements will result in a better outcome?? In what other realm is that the case?
 
SkyGrunt
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Thu Mar 14, 2019 4:49 pm

ytz wrote:
MD80Ttail wrote:
ytz wrote:

Unless you have definitive proof that the FO didn't react properly, this is seriously defamatory to the dead.

Airplanes have to be designed to be operated by someone licensed. You shouldn't have to rely on a 1500 hr ATPL to prevent the aircraft from lawndarting. If you and other Boeing boosters want to insist that the definition should be extended to 1500 hrs minimum, I hope Boeing is ready to give up tens of billions in worldwide sales. Maybe Boeing should just be restricted to selling in the US. Would you be happy with that outcome?



My point about the FOs 200hr Total time is not about weather he or she did anything wrong or not. Even IF he or she did everything right my point is a 200hr total time pilot does not provide for the best possible outcomes for the fight and passenger. Most likely he or she didn’t do anything wrong. I have never once said that. My concern, and I believe it’s very valid, is at 200hrs total time it’s impossible to bring anything more than standard normal operations experience to the flight deck. A pilot with more hours would have a bigger “tool bag” from which to draw experience from in problem solving. Why everyone has so much vitriol for what to me is extremely obvious I have no idea.


Because the rest of us see this as a red herring. "Could the 200 hr FO have crashed the plane? I don't know. I am just asking what if he crashed the plane." This is some Fox News worthy line of discussion.

Given your time in the cockpit, one would think you'd know enough about aviation safety that you'd know that crashes happen more than one reason. I would also think as a fellow aviator you'd have more respect for the dead than to question their professionalism before their bodies have been buried.

You also dodged my question. Is it your sincere belief that the operation of all 737s should be restricted only to FOs who have 1500 hrs? And if that is the case, are you okay with severe restrictions on Boeing's sales?


I am with you on this one. There are two lines of thought that are really troubling me. One, the 200 hour pilot was sitting next to an 8,000 pilot and had at least basic knowledge of the systems and procedures. I am sure that they worked together and tried to solve the problem. We have no idea what this pilot did but some are completely transfixed on the hour number. I get it of course, the human mind wants to find something or point of failure so that we can make sense of what happened but it's unfair at this point to do this.

Since I am ranting now as well, the second one is that people have to get over this conspiracy theory that the NTSB is secretly working for Boeing and wants to doctor the data. The NTSB will be involved and consists of professionals and folks who genuinely want to figure this out and make travel safe for all. There is a culture of cooperation in place among these agencies (NTSB, AIB, TSB, etc) with everyone working for the safety and advancement of aviation across the globe. Stop this nonsense.
 
LTC8K6
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Thu Mar 14, 2019 4:54 pm

Is this like having a Colonel as the pilot and a Private E-1 as the co-pilot? Wherein the Private is very unlikely to ever question the Colonel's actions or orders?
 
ec99
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobip

Thu Mar 14, 2019 4:54 pm

placeholder wrote:
ec99 wrote:
downdata wrote:
France Has Black Boxes (7:47 a.m.)

The voice and data recorders from the crashed Ethiopian Airlines Boeing 737 Max have arrived in France, a spokesman for the French BEA air-accident investigation office said.

:bouncy: so airbus now has the blackboxes


So I get why they didn't want to send the blackboxes to DC but sending them to France seems like the next worst option. The French Government is reading the boxes. The french government owns 11% of Airbus. Airbus employes tens of thousands of French workers. This would be like Apple leading the investigation into exploding Samsung phones. The french Government stands to benefit financially and politically from a finding that the 737 Max has a inherent problem.

This is just not how one would want an impartial investigation to work.


So just for my understanding if an AF B777 Crashes and the Boxes Go back to France for evaluation and finding the cause for the Crash they're also biased then ?

The BEA might be Governement owned but i would expect the NTSB to participate and control in finding the Cause for what happened to the poor 150+ Souls on Board.

The amount of accusations and wild guessing in this Thread is so skyhigh that reading it is almost painful for a sane Person, so Please let them investigate and stop the wild Theorys and Guessing....

Cant be that hard...


Um... I pointed out an inherent conflict of interest. No conjecture, guessing or wild theories. This isn't how one would choice to investigate an industrial accident if one had more options. If you disagree with that we are operating in different realities. Obviously here there are few options since there are only a couple countries with the ability/expertise to recover black box data.

For a question, why did the Germans feel uncomfortable recovering the data but the french were good with it? Do they have any more experience with his type of Black box? I'd guess it's just the Germans displaying a little extra caution but don't know for sure.
 
Elementalism
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Thu Mar 14, 2019 4:56 pm

LTC8K6 wrote:
Is this like having a Colonel as the pilot and a Private E-1 as the co-pilot? Wherein the Private is very unlikely to ever question the Colonel's actions or orders?


Wont know until they can hear the pilots interacting. There was a flight in Pakistan that the seniority differences in an A320 or A321 caused an issue. The senior captain admonished the inexperienced FO early in the flight, humiliating him several times and thus the FO didnt speak up while the captain drove them into the side of a mountain.
 
hivue
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobip

Thu Mar 14, 2019 5:00 pm

ec99 wrote:
For a question, why did the Germans feel uncomfortable recovering the data but the french were good with it? Do they have any more experience with his type of Black box? I'd guess it's just the Germans displaying a little extra caution but don't know for sure.


They said they don't have the technical facilities to do the job.
"You're sitting. In a chair. In the SKY!!" ~ Louis C.K.
 
planecane
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Thu Mar 14, 2019 5:02 pm

SkyGrunt wrote:
ytz wrote:
MD80Ttail wrote:


My point about the FOs 200hr Total time is not about weather he or she did anything wrong or not. Even IF he or she did everything right my point is a 200hr total time pilot does not provide for the best possible outcomes for the fight and passenger. Most likely he or she didn’t do anything wrong. I have never once said that. My concern, and I believe it’s very valid, is at 200hrs total time it’s impossible to bring anything more than standard normal operations experience to the flight deck. A pilot with more hours would have a bigger “tool bag” from which to draw experience from in problem solving. Why everyone has so much vitriol for what to me is extremely obvious I have no idea.


Because the rest of us see this as a red herring. "Could the 200 hr FO have crashed the plane? I don't know. I am just asking what if he crashed the plane." This is some Fox News worthy line of discussion.

Given your time in the cockpit, one would think you'd know enough about aviation safety that you'd know that crashes happen more than one reason. I would also think as a fellow aviator you'd have more respect for the dead than to question their professionalism before their bodies have been buried.

You also dodged my question. Is it your sincere belief that the operation of all 737s should be restricted only to FOs who have 1500 hrs? And if that is the case, are you okay with severe restrictions on Boeing's sales?


I am with you on this one. There are two lines of thought that are really troubling me. One, the 200 hour pilot was sitting next to an 8,000 pilot and had at least basic knowledge of the systems and procedures. I am sure that they worked together and tried to solve the problem. We have no idea what this pilot did but some are completely transfixed on the hour number. I get it of course, the human mind wants to find something or point of failure so that we can make sense of what happened but it's unfair at this point to do this.

Since I am ranting now as well, the second one is that people have to get over this conspiracy theory that the NTSB is secretly working for Boeing and wants to doctor the data. The NTSB will be involved and consists of professionals and folks who genuinely want to figure this out and make travel safe for all. There is a culture of cooperation in place among these agencies (NTSB, AIB, TSB, etc) with everyone working for the safety and advancement of aviation across the globe. Stop this nonsense.


Also, Boeing wants/needs to know the actual cause as well. Doctoring data to reduce liability for this accident does nothing for them if there is a design flaw. If they keep selling a model with a fundamental flaw, there will be more crashes and the 737 MAX will have all orders cancelled and the program will fail.
 
MD80Ttail
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Thu Mar 14, 2019 5:02 pm

In 200hrs TT its entirely possible the FO had never had an actual non simulated rto or even flown a missed in actual operations. I’m trying to remember the last time I did a go around in actual operations......it happens yes but not really that often. Trust me you can get busy in a hurry especially with toga thrust and add to that whatever reason caused the missed in the beginning.
Last edited by MD80Ttail on Thu Mar 14, 2019 5:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
osiris30
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Thu Mar 14, 2019 5:02 pm

hivue wrote:
osiris30 wrote:
LTC8K6 wrote:
Supposedly BEA will only report to Ethiopian authorities.

But I'm sure we will get leaks.


The BEA's data will go to all parties involved in the investigation.

Ethiopian authorities, Boeing, NTSB, Engine makers, and anyone else who may have officially been joined as a 'party' to the investigation (which is not entirely clear who is on the exhaustive list at this time).


What makes you think that? Has the Lion Air CVR data gone to "all parties involved?" If it has, why have we not seen any leaks of that, especially given the recently significantly increased profile of the whole MAX issue.


What makes me think that is international treaties that govern this stuff. Why haven't you seen leaks? Maybe some people take confidential information seriously and like their jobs?

It's not like the investigative team is 1000s of people.
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Elementalism
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Thu Mar 14, 2019 5:03 pm

mxaxai wrote:
Elementalism wrote:
I am now interested in knowing how many hours this FO had when he first started flying mainline aircraft. If he is at 200 now. That means he started with even lower flight time. I have dabbled in GA and have about 75 hours in single engine piston. Hard to believe I nearly have half the hours of a pilot sitting right seat in a mainline aircraft.

You know that (a) much of that time is spent in business jets, not in single engine pistons and (b) simulator training is a large part of modern commercial training, right?

Btw, why the distinction to "mainline" aircraft? Is it that much better if a 110-seat regional aircraft crashes?



Generally due to the size of the aircraft. Though some regional jets are approaching the size of mainline from a generation ago(A220-100, E190).
 
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobip

Thu Mar 14, 2019 5:04 pm

ec99 wrote:
placeholder wrote:
ec99 wrote:

So I get why they didn't want to send the blackboxes to DC but sending them to France seems like the next worst option. The French Government is reading the boxes. The french government owns 11% of Airbus. Airbus employes tens of thousands of French workers. This would be like Apple leading the investigation into exploding Samsung phones. The french Government stands to benefit financially and politically from a finding that the 737 Max has a inherent problem.

This is just not how one would want an impartial investigation to work.


So just for my understanding if an AF B777 Crashes and the Boxes Go back to France for evaluation and finding the cause for the Crash they're also biased then ?

The BEA might be Governement owned but i would expect the NTSB to participate and control in finding the Cause for what happened to the poor 150+ Souls on Board.

The amount of accusations and wild guessing in this Thread is so skyhigh that reading it is almost painful for a sane Person, so Please let them investigate and stop the wild Theorys and Guessing....

Cant be that hard...


Um... I pointed out an inherent conflict of interest. No conjecture, guessing or wild theories. This isn't how one would choice to investigate an industrial accident if one had more options. If you disagree with that we are operating in different realities. Obviously here there are few options since there are only a couple countries with the ability/expertise to recover black box data.

For a question, why did the Germans feel uncomfortable recovering the data but the french were good with it? Do they have any more experience with his type of Black box? I'd guess it's just the Germans displaying a little extra caution but don't know for sure.


I might have written it a bit hard to understand from what i exactly meant in conjunction to your Post.
It wasnt exactly pointed towards you with the Theorys and Guessing in this Thread, it was more pointed towards the People in this thread constantly sniffing a Conspiracy Theory against Boeing or the US or whatever...
The Point mentioned towards you was the Fact that you indirectly said that the BEA is Biased towards Boeing because Airbus has stakes in the BEA, thats why i asked if it would be the same for example that an Investigation in the Case of an French Plane Crashing which was built in the US is also biased, just based on what you said in your Post.

I dont know why the Germans declined an Investigation of the Black Boxes in the End, i dont work for the BFU or have any insight so far why they decided against it.
It might have something to do with Politics and the already crumbling relationship between the US and Germany right now, but i personally think that Politics have the least priority when a Plane Crash happened where over 150 innocent People died.
I dont even care whos investigating this Crash, i hope they just find out the cause for it so that it doesnt happen again and relatives get answers for the big "WHY?" and the Grounding of the MAX gets lifted.
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osiris30
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobip

Thu Mar 14, 2019 5:05 pm

ec99 wrote:
placeholder wrote:
ec99 wrote:

So I get why they didn't want to send the blackboxes to DC but sending them to France seems like the next worst option. The French Government is reading the boxes. The french government owns 11% of Airbus. Airbus employes tens of thousands of French workers. This would be like Apple leading the investigation into exploding Samsung phones. The french Government stands to benefit financially and politically from a finding that the 737 Max has a inherent problem.

This is just not how one would want an impartial investigation to work.


So just for my understanding if an AF B777 Crashes and the Boxes Go back to France for evaluation and finding the cause for the Crash they're also biased then ?

The BEA might be Governement owned but i would expect the NTSB to participate and control in finding the Cause for what happened to the poor 150+ Souls on Board.

The amount of accusations and wild guessing in this Thread is so skyhigh that reading it is almost painful for a sane Person, so Please let them investigate and stop the wild Theorys and Guessing....

Cant be that hard...


Um... I pointed out an inherent conflict of interest. No conjecture, guessing or wild theories. This isn't how one would choice to investigate an industrial accident if one had more options. If you disagree with that we are operating in different realities. Obviously here there are few options since there are only a couple countries with the ability/expertise to recover black box data.

For a question, why did the Germans feel uncomfortable recovering the data but the french were good with it? Do they have any more experience with his type of Black box? I'd guess it's just the Germans displaying a little extra caution but don't know for sure.


Or maybe just maybe the Germans were honest? Maybe they don't have the tools and expertise like they said. Maybe they haven't written the process for these new boxes yet. I wouldn't want my first experiment to be on something this important.
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rheinwaldner
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Thu Mar 14, 2019 5:06 pm

SomebodyInTLS wrote:
I forgot to post another thought I had a while ago: what if MCAS was triggered legitimately but pilots now think they have to cut it to fly safely...?

This could certainly be a possibility, your thought brought me to this:
What if the speed was unreliable, MCAS triggered wrongly, it was switched off correctly then, but now without the protection the unreliable speed memory items didn't work anymore? Say a high speed established and now the lost pitch stability started to haunt them while trying to keep a steady pitch?

This would be pretty bad, because it means that switching off MCAS would make the aircraft uncontrollable at certain corners of the flight envelope.
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ytz
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Thu Mar 14, 2019 5:11 pm

SkyGrunt wrote:


I am with you on this one. There are two lines of thought that are really troubling me. One, the 200 hour pilot was sitting next to an 8,000 pilot and had at least basic knowledge of the systems and procedures. I am sure that they worked together and tried to solve the problem. We have no idea what this pilot did but some are completely transfixed on the hour number. I get it of course, the human mind wants to find something or point of failure so that we can make sense of what happened but it's unfair at this point to do this.


Not going to say a 200 hr FO doesn't bother me. And it could well be a contributing factor in the end. But that is absolutely irrelevant to the decision to ground the fleet. Last I checked, the Lion Air crash didn't involve a 200 hr FO. What is relevant there is the similarity between the two crashes (similar instrument errors reported, similar phase of flight, similar crash attitude/profiles).

On the broader topic. If the folks here are arguing that safe operation of Boeing airplanes isn't possible without 1500 hrs of experience, then Boeing should let their customers know that and take the hits that follow. We can talk about experience enhancing safety. But OEMs also have an obligation to make sure their airplanes are as easy to operate as possible for a reasonably trained individual. And reasonably trained to me isn't a 1500 hr US ATPL holder.
 
WIederling
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Thu Mar 14, 2019 5:13 pm

Elementalism wrote:
LTC8K6 wrote:
Is this like having a Colonel as the pilot and a Private E-1 as the co-pilot? Wherein the Private is very unlikely to ever question the Colonel's actions or orders?


Wont know until they can hear the pilots interacting. There was a flight in Pakistan that the seniority differences in an A320 or A321 caused an issue. The senior captain admonished the inexperienced FO early in the flight, humiliating him several times and thus the FO didnt speak up while the captain drove them into the side of a mountain.


The double 747 crash was a seniority/ossification thing.
AF447 has a vector into personal relations: one of the younger pilots seems to have "done" the girlfriend of the other copilot the night before.
Being old and having done something for ages does not necessarily lead to more valuable experience.
( Though I am aware that in the US gaining "experience" in a more or less
unguided fashion is the established training method.)

Solving skills are not solely linked to experience.
Actually I find that I have more success on "new to the domain" problems than things I have experience with.
experience is comparable to solving by rote. Issue: rote solutions are available to known problems only.
Murphy is an optimist
 
hivue
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Thu Mar 14, 2019 5:20 pm

rheinwaldner wrote:
This would be pretty bad, because it means that switching off MCAS would make the aircraft uncontrollable at certain corners of the flight envelope.


For sure. The whole reason for Boeing coming up with MCAS was because the airplane could become "uncontrollable at certain corners of the flight envelope."
"You're sitting. In a chair. In the SKY!!" ~ Louis C.K.
 
ytz
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Thu Mar 14, 2019 5:20 pm

planecane wrote:
Also, Boeing wants/needs to know the actual cause as well. Doctoring data to reduce liability for this accident does nothing for them if there is a design flaw. If they keep selling a model with a fundamental flaw, there will be more crashes and the 737 MAX will have all orders cancelled and the program will fail.


Absolutely. I really don't get the angle of a lot of pro-Boeing folks in this discussion. It is in Boeing's long term interest to not have any more accidents with the Max.

They've had 2 similar crashes with ~360 in service. But at 50 deliveries a month, if there was truly some kind of issues (be it technical, handling, training, etc.), the likelihood that another crash would have happened in the next 6 months is pretty high. Rather ground now than ground later with 700 delivered frames.
 
cuban8
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Thu Mar 14, 2019 5:21 pm

After all these years, it’s interesting to see that after every plane crash there’s always a discussion about the crews flight hours. That being said nobody talks about the quality of these flight hours.

I’ve been flying for the last 20 years pretty much worldwide with all kind of nationalities, flight experiences and backgrounds.

I’ve had American pilots with 2000-3000 hrs who had mostly flown in Florida and California. They were among the worst pilots I’ve ever flown with. Completely clueless flying in sandstorms in Nothern Africa.

I’ve flown with Middle Eastern F-16 pilot (squadron leader) with a combined military/civilian experience of 5000 hours. While his flying was decent, his English level, CRM and general communication were horrific.

I’ve also flown with 200 hour pilots with backgrounds from Switzerland, Austria and Scandinavian countries who could fly difficult approaches is snow or sandstorms.

My point is, sure we can look at the hours and backgrounds but in the end you can never know the quality of the experience. To gain experience today you need a very good connection or some really deep pockets (or both).

The only way assess a pilot capability is to put him/her through a good selection process. The hours will give you an expectation of proficiency, but not much more than that.

P.S. I’ve been flying with excellent American and military pilots too, just wanted to make a point.
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Curiousflyer
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Thu Mar 14, 2019 5:30 pm

WIederling wrote:
AF447 has a vector into personal relations: one of the younger pilots seems to have "done" the girlfriend of the other copilot the night before.


Where does that funny one come from? There are a ton of rumors of too much partying in Rio for that crew before the flight, but is there a single reliable source?
 
scythemk
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Thu Mar 14, 2019 5:49 pm

hivue wrote:
rheinwaldner wrote:
This would be pretty bad, because it means that switching off MCAS would make the aircraft uncontrollable at certain corners of the flight envelope.


For sure. The whole reason for Boeing coming up with MCAS was because the airplane could become "uncontrollable at certain corners of the flight envelope."


My understanding is that MCAS was implemented to make the handling resemble that of the 737NG in high thrust situations where the engine mounting caused upward pitch. It was a patch of sorts to make this handling difference transparent to the pilots and I believe was a condition required for it to be certified as essentially the same type rating as 737NG instead of its own type rating.

It's not because the plane became "uncontrollable". There's nothing that MCAS does while in operation that the pilot couldn't do themselves.
 
WIederling
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Thu Mar 14, 2019 6:07 pm

Curiousflyer wrote:
Where does that funny one come from? There are a ton of rumors of too much partying in Rio for that crew before the flight, but is there a single reliable source?


obviously nothing beyond say so.
but it perfectly fits in with one pilot more or less passively sitting by ( see how you manage this )
while the other borked the craft. CRM gone poof.
Murphy is an optimist
 
Trin
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Thu Mar 14, 2019 6:14 pm

osiris30 wrote:
So how does this sound:

Incorrect airpseed reading, pilot think they are Vr but really aren't.
Pull back and nose lifts.
Air/Ground trigger (flight is now 'airborne')
Nose is being held off by pilots fighting to get in the air, not sure why they aren't.
AC continues accelerating down runway.
V increases to where the AC can rotate properly and go.

At this point pilots are royally confused in AC. Probably should have aborted take off but thought they were well past Vr when they really were not.

Then... who knows.


I mean - I think at this point that may indeed be where we're at, yeah.......at least until some hard data from the FDR is released. The confusion in your scenario after they *finally* achieve takeoff would be high and also very dangerous given the low altitude. Sort of puts me in mind of Aeroperu 603 or Birgenair 301......although with the addition of MCAS into the bargain.
 
MrBretz
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Thu Mar 14, 2019 6:28 pm

Trin wrote:
osiris30 wrote:
So how does this sound:

Incorrect airpseed reading, pilot think they are Vr but really aren't.
Pull back and nose lifts.
Air/Ground trigger (flight is now 'airborne')
Nose is being held off by pilots fighting to get in the air, not sure why they aren't.
AC continues accelerating down runway.
V increases to where the AC can rotate properly and go.

At this point pilots are royally confused in AC. Probably should have aborted take off but thought they were well past Vr when they really were not.

Then... who knows.


I mean - I think at this point that may indeed be where we're at, yeah.......at least until some hard data from the FDR is released. The confusion in your scenario after they *finally* achieve takeoff would be high and also very dangerous given the low altitude. Sort of puts me in mind of Aeroperu 603 or Birgenair 301......although with the addition of MCAS into the bargain.


But if this were the situation, wouldn’t the flaps be extended so MCAS would not come into play?
 
slider
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Thu Mar 14, 2019 6:36 pm

osiris30 wrote:
LTC8K6 wrote:
Supposedly BEA will only report to Ethiopian authorities.

But I'm sure we will get leaks.


The BEA's data will go to all parties involved in the investigation.

Ethiopian authorities, Boeing, NTSB, Engine makers, and anyone else who may have officially been joined as a 'party' to the investigation (which is not entirely clear who is on the exhaustive list at this time).


Exactly right. And that includes any aviation authority for any victim onboard of all nationalities as well.
 
asdf
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Thu Mar 14, 2019 6:37 pm

MrBretz wrote:
Trin wrote:
osiris30 wrote:
So how does this sound:

Incorrect airpseed reading, pilot think they are Vr but really aren't.
Pull back and nose lifts.
Air/Ground trigger (flight is now 'airborne')
Nose is being held off by pilots fighting to get in the air, not sure why they aren't.
AC continues accelerating down runway.
V increases to where the AC can rotate properly and go.

At this point pilots are royally confused in AC. Probably should have aborted take off but thought they were well past Vr when they really were not.

Then... who knows.


I mean - I think at this point that may indeed be where we're at, yeah.......at least until some hard data from the FDR is released. The confusion in your scenario after they *finally* achieve takeoff would be high and also very dangerous given the low altitude. Sort of puts me in mind of Aeroperu 603 or Birgenair 301......although with the addition of MCAS into the bargain.


But if this were the situation, wouldn’t the flaps be extended so MCAS would not come into play?


unreliable airspeed
pitch&power mode
flaps UP on climb at 210kts
http://www.b737mrg.net/downloads/b737mr ... 737-NG.pdf

but you need a reliable AoA
if you dont have a AoA info
and you dont have a speed info

well
sorry
 
hivue
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Thu Mar 14, 2019 6:41 pm

scythemk wrote:
hivue wrote:
rheinwaldner wrote:
This would be pretty bad, because it means that switching off MCAS would make the aircraft uncontrollable at certain corners of the flight envelope.


For sure. The whole reason for Boeing coming up with MCAS was because the airplane could become "uncontrollable at certain corners of the flight envelope."


My understanding is that MCAS was implemented to make the handling resemble that of the 737NG in high thrust situations where the engine mounting caused upward pitch. It was a patch of sorts to make this handling difference transparent to the pilots and I believe was a condition required for it to be certified as essentially the same type rating as 737NG instead of its own type rating.

It's not because the plane became "uncontrollable". There's nothing that MCAS does while in operation that the pilot couldn't do themselves.


My understanding (gleaned months ago from the Lion Air thread so no documentation; anyone with documentation feel free to correct me) is that during the flight test campaign it was discovered that at certain points in the envelope the more forwardly located engines generated unanticipated (during the design and development phases) lift of a sufficiently robust nature to generate a nose-up moment, from where a stall could ensue. A stall is uncontrolled flight. The airplane was deemed not certifiable with this undesirable characteristic so MCAS was put together to mitigate it -- even though the situation likely would never be encountered in normal airline operations.
"You're sitting. In a chair. In the SKY!!" ~ Louis C.K.
 
Curiousflyer
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Thu Mar 14, 2019 6:45 pm

WIederling wrote:
Curiousflyer wrote:
Where does that funny one come from? There are a ton of rumors of too much partying in Rio for that crew before the flight, but is there a single reliable source?


obviously nothing beyond say so.
but it perfectly fits in with one pilot more or less passively sitting by ( see how you manage this )
while the other borked the craft. CRM gone poof.


But if it is not proved and is just a rumor, I assume it never happened and does not "fit" anywhere. Without proof, they should be given the benefit of the doubt. There are some more obvious causes to the AF 447 crash and cockpit atmosphere does still seem to be only an assumption.

Similarly with this Ethiopian crash, maybe the first officer's lack of experience made him not of much help but at this stage, there is no proof, and there too there are other (more?) likely causes, and hopefully the black boxes will tell.
 
VeeCee
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Thu Mar 14, 2019 6:51 pm

planecane wrote:
Also, Boeing wants/needs to know the actual cause as well. Doctoring data to reduce liability for this accident does nothing for them if there is a design flaw. If they keep selling a model with a fundamental flaw, there will be more crashes and the 737 MAX will have all orders cancelled and the program will fail.


You and me and the majority of posters and airlines etc know this. Boeing genuinely wants to know if there is a problem so they can fix it. The NTSB has proven to be independent and trustworthy. The BEA wants to know too. They don't WANT to ban planes from their airspace. And every bit of new information we gain about aircraft safety benefits ALL manufacturers.

But public perception matters. If we want the public to have faith in the industry and trust the system to keep them safe, then you have to listen to the public. It can't be a one way street. In this case it's easy. There was more than one facility capable of reading the FDR and CVR. Choose one that helps alleviate concerns about bias in favor of the manufacturer.
 
jayeshrulz
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Thu Mar 14, 2019 6:54 pm

barney captain wrote:
If the FO only had 200 hours of total flight time - and assuming this wasn't his first flight with the airline - that means he was in the right seat of the MAX with even less. Completely unacceptable imo. I'm not suggesting s/he played any role in the crash - but if there are FO's out there currently with less than 200 hours flying these aircraft, they are more of a liability than an asset. Far more.

I understand there are accelerated training programs that are very successful, and while I'm not suggesting they need the US requirement of 1500 hours, less than 200 is simply not enough - even with those programs.


From what I could say from my 5 years of flying a Jet far more complex than Boeing - experience certainly counts - but not to such an extend that warrants the first officer out of the cockpit. Unless you fly on type - you wont have any experience. Then you wont reach toward being an asset.
The only rule of 1500 to fly a jet I have seen is in the North America. And that's more paranoia than help tbh. Unless you could be so sure that if the FO had more experience the outcome would be different, I respectfully disagree to your statement.


Elementalism wrote:
ytz wrote:
MD80Ttail wrote:
I think this is very significant. We have a worldwide grounding of the Max due to this crash. Irreparable harm has been done to the poor souls on board, Boeing, 737, many airlines and great stress placed on the flying public. All of this comes down to the actions and / or reactions of the pilots. One of which had only 200hrs total time. We have no idea If this accident is even related to MCAS. No new information is to be had for 5-10 days. Everything comes down to how this flight crew handeled what started as a routine flight. I think we can agree everything was normal until at least V1–theoretically anyways.

So that’s where we are here and in the world. We know other airlines has pitch and A/P issues with the Max and it was reported. Each time a successful outcome was had for the flight and the pax. JT’s flight crew’s before the fatal flight handled the problem successfully at least one if not three previous times. We need to figure out what dynamic did not allow the fatal flights crew to mitigate whatever problem the plane was throwing at them. Both flights were apparently normal at first and then a problem occurred. That problem may have been MCAS. Once the crew experienced the problem...even MCAS....why couldn’t they have a safe and successful outcome?


Unless you have definitive proof that the FO didn't react properly, this is seriously defamatory to the dead.

Airplanes have to be designed to be operated by someone licensed. You shouldn't have to rely on a 1500 hr ATPL to prevent the aircraft from lawndarting. If you and other Boeing boosters want to insist that the definition should be extended to 1500 hrs minimum, I hope Boeing is ready to give up tens of billions in worldwide sales. Maybe Boeing should just be restricted to selling in the US. Would you be happy with that outcome?


I couldn't agree more. Heck, Boeing doesn't even require a Multi Engine CPL for doing a 737 type rating.

In my country, we count the hours post line release. So tomorrow if I ask a newly released FO how many hours does he/she have, their answer is usully the hours post line release. I am suspecting - that might have been the case here.
But seeing how assumptions are going on in this thread, I'd rather not add another to the mix.
Keep flying, because the sky is no limit!
 
MrBretz
Posts: 396
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Thu Mar 14, 2019 7:02 pm

Asdf said “unreliable airspeed
pitch&power mode
flaps UP on climb at 210kts
http://www.b737mrg.net/downloads/b737mr ... 737-NG.pdf

but you need a reliable AoA
if you dont have a AoA info
and you dont have a speed info

well
sorry”

So you struggle to get in the air, you retract the flaps, all h... is breaking lose, you are at low altitude, then MCAS kicks in and points the nose down.....gads.
 
barney captain
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Thu Mar 14, 2019 7:03 pm

In my country, we count the hours post line release. So tomorrow if I ask a newly released FO how many hours does he/she have, their answer is usully the hours post line release. I am suspecting - that might have been the case here.
But seeing how assumptions are going on in this thread, I'd rather not add another to the mix.


If that's the case then it makes far more sense and is reasonable.

200 hours total time (actually it would have been less) is not enough to safely and effectively be an asset to the cockpit.
Southeast Of Disorder
 
osiris30
Posts: 2655
Joined: Sat Sep 30, 2006 10:16 am

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Thu Mar 14, 2019 7:17 pm

MrBretz wrote:
Trin wrote:
osiris30 wrote:
So how does this sound:

Incorrect airpseed reading, pilot think they are Vr but really aren't.
Pull back and nose lifts.
Air/Ground trigger (flight is now 'airborne')
Nose is being held off by pilots fighting to get in the air, not sure why they aren't.
AC continues accelerating down runway.
V increases to where the AC can rotate properly and go.

At this point pilots are royally confused in AC. Probably should have aborted take off but thought they were well past Vr when they really were not.

Then... who knows.


I mean - I think at this point that may indeed be where we're at, yeah.......at least until some hard data from the FDR is released. The confusion in your scenario after they *finally* achieve takeoff would be high and also very dangerous given the low altitude. Sort of puts me in mind of Aeroperu 603 or Birgenair 301......although with the addition of MCAS into the bargain.


But if this were the situation, wouldn’t the flaps be extended so MCAS would not come into play?


Yes. But pilots believing something is wrong may withdraw flaps early. If the above is correct take off should have been aborted.
I don't care what you think of my opinion. It's my opinion, so have a nice day :)
 
osiris30
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Thu Mar 14, 2019 7:20 pm

asdf wrote:
MrBretz wrote:
Trin wrote:

I mean - I think at this point that may indeed be where we're at, yeah.......at least until some hard data from the FDR is released. The confusion in your scenario after they *finally* achieve takeoff would be high and also very dangerous given the low altitude. Sort of puts me in mind of Aeroperu 603 or Birgenair 301......although with the addition of MCAS into the bargain.


But if this were the situation, wouldn’t the flaps be extended so MCAS would not come into play?


unreliable airspeed
pitch&power mode
flaps UP on climb at 210kts
http://www.b737mrg.net/downloads/b737mr ... 737-NG.pdf

but you need a reliable AoA
if you dont have a AoA info
and you dont have a speed info

well
sorry


AoA doesn't depend on speed. Two separate instruments. We have no indication AoA was inop.

Invalid airpeed can be ballparked from GPS speed (which was functioning based on ADS-B).

Pitch and power requires no airspeed indicator at all.

Fly pitch & power.

MCAS kicks in. Run auto-trim cut off. Trim manually.

The last one is an added complication, BUT, in light of ALL the talk in the community (including professionally) after Lion Air, that should have been a given.
I don't care what you think of my opinion. It's my opinion, so have a nice day :)
 
osiris30
Posts: 2655
Joined: Sat Sep 30, 2006 10:16 am

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Thu Mar 14, 2019 7:25 pm

LTC8K6 wrote:
osiris30 wrote:
LTC8K6 wrote:
Supposedly BEA will only report to Ethiopian authorities.

But I'm sure we will get leaks.


The BEA's data will go to all parties involved in the investigation.

Ethiopian authorities, Boeing, NTSB, Engine makers, and anyone else who may have officially been joined as a 'party' to the investigation (which is not entirely clear who is on the exhaustive list at this time).


My understanding is that Ethiopian investigators are at BEA and will handle the data, not BEA.

BEA is just going to extract it for them.


It doesn't matter. Everyone involved in the investigation is privy to the data by international treaty. If the NTSB wants to be there, they have every right to be there, same with Boeing and anyone else who is officially 'party' to the investigation. This is not a grey area. This is well defined and has been the protocol for decades.
I don't care what you think of my opinion. It's my opinion, so have a nice day :)

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