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JohnKrist
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Sun Mar 10, 2019 1:27 pm

anshabhi wrote:
Was it carrying a UN delegation or something?


Probably not, as a former UN emplyee I travelled a lot with UN passport, and I was a regular Joe Sixpack in UN
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KCaviator
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Sun Mar 10, 2019 1:27 pm

Bobloblaw wrote:
KCaviator wrote:
Has there been another type of aircraft that has killed this many people so shortly after entry into service?

In 1964-65 the 727 had a horrible safety record at first. Let’s count the number of accidents as opposed to people. Reason is the mid 1960s had load factors in the 50% range. Had the 727s been full, then yes. In 1959-60 the Electra had at lest two crashes due to design flaw


Still, we’re talking the 1960s here. It’s 2019. A brand new state of the art (although it’s more lipstick on a pig) aircraft shouldn’t have this kind of track record already.
 
AngMoh
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Sun Mar 10, 2019 1:28 pm

smokeybandit wrote:
A320FlyGuy wrote:
Also, the pilot was in communication with the airport and reported control difficulty...if there had been engine failure, you can be sure it would have been mentioned.

.


Too soon to say that there weren't engine problems. We're relying on a CEO's quotes right now


My problem with that theory is that you should have a double engine failure
727 732 733 734 735 73G 738 739 739ER 742 743 744 752 753 762 772 77E 773 77W 788 A300 A310 A319 A320 A321 A332 A333 A343 A345 A346 A359 A35K A388 DC-9 DC-10 MD11 MD81 MD82 MD87 F70 ERJ145 E170 E175 E190 E195 ATR72 Q400 CRJ200 CRJ700 CRJ900 BAE146 RJ85
 
dtwpilot225
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Sun Mar 10, 2019 1:29 pm

I can’t belive the first thing people are saying on this thread is ground the max! What if there was a terrorist on board, should we still ground it then?
We have no idea what caused this crash can we wait a couple days for our knee jerk reactions?
People died here
 
AngMoh
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Sun Mar 10, 2019 1:30 pm

smokeybandit wrote:
A320FlyGuy wrote:
Also, the pilot was in communication with the airport and reported control difficulty...if there had been engine failure, you can be sure it would have been mentioned.

.


Too soon to say that there weren't engine problems. We're relying on a CEO's quotes right now


My problem with a theory of engine failure is that you should have a double engine failure. A single engine failure should enable a return to the field for an emergency landing. That is a straight certification requirement and something every pilot is trained for.
727 732 733 734 735 73G 738 739 739ER 742 743 744 752 753 762 772 77E 773 77W 788 A300 A310 A319 A320 A321 A332 A333 A343 A345 A346 A359 A35K A388 DC-9 DC-10 MD11 MD81 MD82 MD87 F70 ERJ145 E170 E175 E190 E195 ATR72 Q400 CRJ200 CRJ700 CRJ900 BAE146 RJ85
 
marcelh
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Sun Mar 10, 2019 1:31 pm

MD80Ttail wrote:
In all likelihood this has nothing to do specifically with the Max.

Speculation
 
Cubsrule
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Sun Mar 10, 2019 1:32 pm

Buffalomatt1027 wrote:
While the plane definitely might have major flaw when taking off ...... maybe it also has to do with pilot training. Are they missing something training wise went the speed indicators are giving them issues?

Does southwest, united, AA, and other major airlines train their pilots differently or prepare them for a air speed issue when taking off?


AA, UA, and WN (and most other operators) would not have been flying the JT airplane in the condition it was in.
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
 
washingtonflyer
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Sun Mar 10, 2019 1:33 pm

At least nobody has mentioned suicide.... yet.
 
dmsolovyev
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Sun Mar 10, 2019 1:33 pm

Image

A general view shows the scene of the Ethiopian Airlines Flight ET 302 plane crash, near the town of Bishoftu, southeast of Addis Ababa, Ethiopia March 10, 2019. REUTERS/Tiksa Negeri
 
awthompson
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Sun Mar 10, 2019 1:35 pm

aircatalonia wrote:
AirlineCritic wrote:
. What seems to be central at this point is that the aircraft didn't climb much, its altitude was erratic, then it impacted terrain.


The crash site is around 60km (37 miles) south-east of the Ethiopian capital. How do you know it didnt climb much?


Available data shows the aircraft only climbed 1400 feet in the first three minutes of flight with numerous vertical speed fluctuations.
Profile is abnormal from shortly after becoming airborne.

NOTE: Ignore the graphical representation of the flight which has 'smoothed out' flightradar's transition from AGL to ASL a difference of over 7000ft.
Instead look at the data table itself.
 
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glideslope
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Sun Mar 10, 2019 1:37 pm

trnswrld wrote:
BobMUC wrote:
smokeybandit wrote:

And no safety/emergency personnel. Just a guy in a suit pulling out a piece of debris


There are other photos:

Image
https://bilder.bild.de/fotos-skaliert/d ... 0.bild.jpg


My gosh, the airplane is literally almost 100% disintegrated. Just gone!


Agreed. Looking at that scene and the terrain I hope the CVR and FDR are recoverable. The velocity must have been massive. Very troubling.

Gods speed to all.
To know your Enemy, you must become your Enemy.” Sun Tzu
 
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Btblue
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Sun Mar 10, 2019 1:38 pm

I think it's perfectly reasonable to draw conclusions between this flight, and the LionAir crash last year.

Same aircraft type.
Same stage in the flight envelope.
Similar data feedback indicating fluctuations in airspeed and altitude.
Similar crash entry profile resulting in total destruction of the airframe.

Do we know what nationality the pilots were? Was their first language English? A possible CRM issue?

Lots of variables but also similarities. Sincere condolences to the airline and families caught up in this absolutely tragic accident. Godspeed to you all.

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AirlineCritic
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Sun Mar 10, 2019 1:39 pm

FWIW, I'm bothered by the ground-the-max-without-knowing-what-happened crowd. But I have to say I'm also bothered by the rather defensive and repeated posts from the other side. It *is* clear that losing two brand new aircraft within months is a remarkable deviation from the safety record we've been used to.

And some of the arguments from the defence side make very little sense. Not picking on you Cubsrule but pointing out an issue:

Cubsrule wrote:
AA, UA, and WN (and most other operators) would not have been flying the JT airplane in the condition it was in.


It is possibly true that other airlines might have done a better maintenance job. Depending on what actually was wrong... but, no matter what, the argument above makes very little sense. Obviously aircraft and sensors and sensor-reading computers and wiring can _also_ break while in the air. So clearly, AA, UA and WN could easily get a non-working AoA sensor system on one of their flights. It is what one does *after* this happens that determines whether the flight continues safely. Piloting technique, having the training to do the right thing, the plane itself being able to deal with single failures, etc.

Can you guys on both sides just stop? The arguments either way are very silly.
 
falconkutscher
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Sun Mar 10, 2019 1:40 pm

smokeybandit wrote:
dmsolovyev wrote:
The photo above looks a bit strange to me. Just few hours after the crash it should be damn hot to stand there. Also I don’t see any fire or smoke.


And no safety/emergency personnel. Just a guy in a suit pulling out a piece of debris


The guy in a suit is the CEO of ET (Mr. DEWOLDE), posing for the press (and contaminating the crash site)...
 
MikeAlpha95
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Sun Mar 10, 2019 1:40 pm

Good we have so many NTSB agents and pilots in the forum who have years of experience and know the reasons for the crash just a few seconds after it happened.

... of wait

Guys wtf...
 
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zkojq
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Sun Mar 10, 2019 1:42 pm

New airplanes don't just fall out of the sky for no reason. There are what, 6000+ 737NGs in service today? Between May 2017 and today none of them had a catastrophic air-accidents yet the 737MAX, of which ~300 have been delivered (two had been delivered as of May 2017 IIRC) has had two catastrophic crashes in that same period. Whilst I'm not saying that the crashes are related, statistically speaking, the claim that they are unrelated to one and other certainly seems dubious.

And yes, I am aware of a fatality following a 737-8NG having a dip in a Micronesian lagoon.

V1 cuts are the most event that flight crew have to practice for in crew cyclic. To automatically assume that the crew was unable to fly with one engine inoperative is very unwise. Similarly, the chances of a dual engine failure on climbout seems rather remote.

RalXWB wrote:
colingally wrote:
I find it weird the CEO of Ethiopian Airlines can stand in the middle of an active investigation area...


Nikki Lauda did the same after one of his 767s crashed in Thailand back in 1991.

Niki would probably have dared Boeing's chief pilot to hand fly a circuit with MCAS trimming against them throughout. :scratchchin:
Last edited by zkojq on Sun Mar 10, 2019 1:46 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Flightsimboy
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Sun Mar 10, 2019 1:42 pm

Will a third crash of a Boeing 737 Max 8 with an operator for less than three months and crashing less than ten minutes after take off, actually have them take note? In both cases Lion Air and Ethiopian the pilots requested to return to the airport after take off and both plunged from around the same height. Fly Dubai though same family sounds eerily familiar. Nose down into the ground.
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george77300
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Sun Mar 10, 2019 1:43 pm

osiris30 wrote:
dopplerd wrote:
Based on the fr24 raw data this does NOT appear to be MCAS related, unless there is another unreported MCAS mode that is different than what Boeing has stated post Lion Air crash. MCAS is not operating if flaps are down. The climb on this aircraft was only a few hundred feet AGL when the first descent occurs. In this part of the flight there should be flaps down, MCAS off, and a healthy rate of climb.

I suppose it is possible they took off with flaps up and had MCAS engage at 200 feet AGL but that would be very much in the pilot error bucket not airplane design flaw.


I am quoting this because more people need to see this comment.


Again quoting for visibility. Almost 0% chance it’s been caused by the same factors. Something entirely different from a multitude of options. This is not a case to ground the entire fleet before details emerge.

It could be one of many issues and you should wait for the investigation to take place. Addis is high up with mountainous terrain. It could be a whole host of issues and pilot error entirely possible. ET did have an accident on a 737NG leaving BEY not so long ago which was pilot error. Wait for factual information before jumping to conclusions.
 
giopan1975
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Sun Mar 10, 2019 1:43 pm

There doesnt seem to be initiation of any turn to return to the airport.
Did the CEO mention control difficulties or just "difficulties" reported to ATC??
 
downdata
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Sun Mar 10, 2019 1:43 pm

Imagine if this was the MC21 or C919 in their 2nd year of service, everyone on this board would be calling for their grounding and shut down of assembly lines...
 
AngMoh
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Sun Mar 10, 2019 1:44 pm

glideslope wrote:
trnswrld wrote:

My gosh, the airplane is literally almost 100% disintegrated. Just gone!


Agreed. Looking at that scene and the terrain I hope the CVR and FDR are recoverable. The velocity must have been massive. Very troubling.

Gods speed to all.


I was wondering the same: are the CVR and FDR still intact? They are critical for finding out what happened.

According to one newspaper article I saw, the pilot reported problems and was cleared by the tower for a return and an emergency landing.
727 732 733 734 735 73G 738 739 739ER 742 743 744 752 753 762 772 77E 773 77W 788 A300 A310 A319 A320 A321 A332 A333 A343 A345 A346 A359 A35K A388 DC-9 DC-10 MD11 MD81 MD82 MD87 F70 ERJ145 E170 E175 E190 E195 ATR72 Q400 CRJ200 CRJ700 CRJ900 BAE146 RJ85
 
nachopants
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Sun Mar 10, 2019 1:44 pm

 
smokeybandit
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Sun Mar 10, 2019 1:45 pm

downdata wrote:
Imagine if this was the MC21 or C919 in their 2nd year of service, everyone on this board would be calling for their grounding and shut down of assembly lines...


As opposed to just half the people on this board calling for the MAX to be grounded?
 
VC10er
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Sun Mar 10, 2019 1:45 pm

I still don’t think I would hesitate to board a 737MAX. I’m not afraid of flying at all. If one day my number is up, then it’s up.
However if the 737MAX gets grounded, it will be because there will be something more than just a coincidence. Experts would (I assume) agree that the possibility of a risk with this airframe or engine or something before a dramatic step.
This is not the first time where eerie situations happened within a short amount of time.
787 batteries, even the fact there was a virtually unbelievable suspicious time frame between 9/11 and the AA A300 crash, to this day I find that to be such a crazy circumstance. (No I don’t think that there was a conspiracy or terrorism - just shocking and unbelievable timing)
To Most the Sky is The Limit, For me, the Sky is Home.
 
Scarebus34
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Sun Mar 10, 2019 1:47 pm

Yes, there is a procedure to recover from an MCAS fault, however, on departure the margin for error is so slim. Not a lot of room to recover.

(With that said, not making any conclusions as to this accident)
 
juliuswong
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Sun Mar 10, 2019 1:47 pm

Rest in Peace for all those onboard the ill fated flight. Just got out of training to read this horrible news. Feeling deja vu with recebt JT604.

It is just too early to speculate what went wrong with the flight until investigation is concluded. I sure hope JT604 investigation can be concluded soon to give us some answer and what improvement or prevention we can make to make flying safer.

ET is one of three biggies in African market (the other two being KQ and SA), they have a massive hub in ADD, and consistently profitable with latest fleet amd technology, not sure for now how this crash will impact them.

If you have a religion, pray for those departed and their family and loved ones.
Last edited by juliuswong on Sun Mar 10, 2019 1:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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GRJGeorge
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Sun Mar 10, 2019 1:51 pm

Aesma wrote:
I'm not on the grounding bandwagon, but then again I'm in France, not that many 737Max flying here, and I don't have a flight scheduled on one, nor anyone I know.

Are people here scheduled to fly soon on one and if so what are your thoughts ?


Yes...in fact on ET...on Thursday 14th March this week.
Actually feeling very eerie about this now...have flown to Kenya (MBA) on Wednesday night with ET on JNB-ADD, specifically chosen the night flight to experience first Max flight...on ET-AVK, guess then the one delivered after the crashed one. Also boarded the morning for ADD-MBA right next to that morning's ET302 flight.
So guess will have to see if my return flight remains Max.
Must say, when departing JNB we were going out reasonably low for a while, but i figured it had to do with possibly being heavily loaded (having seen the stuff checked in while queue) and almost full out of a high altitude airport on a long(ish) flight for narrowbody. Also a strange vibrating sound at first, which i've never experienced on NG before.
 
ArtV
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Sun Mar 10, 2019 1:53 pm

Scarebus34 wrote:
Yes, there is a procedure to recover from an MCAS fault, however, on departure the margin for error is so slim. Not a lot of room to recover.

(With that said, not making any conclusions as to this accident)


That is the exact issue that is being ignored - at that stage of the flight, flaps would have been extended and MCAS would not have been active - unless there was pilot error and flaps retracted too early.
 
sibibom
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Sun Mar 10, 2019 1:55 pm

Firstly RIP all the souls who lost their lives.

Secondly, we need to know what caused this crash, it may be a different issue as compared to Lion Air plane.

But in case its the same issue, grounding should be very much on the table.

B787s and A320Neos were indeed grounded to varying degrees due to issues and with just 400 Maxes it isn't going to be a very big logistical nightmare in the larger scheme of things.

Personally don't think MAXes have design flaws, however software issue could be a cause, that may not be the most difficult thing to fix (its all speculation at the moment)
 
osiris30
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Sun Mar 10, 2019 1:55 pm

VC10er wrote:
I still don’t think I would hesitate to board a 737MAX. I’m not afraid of flying at all. If one day my number is up, then it’s up.
However if the 737MAX gets grounded, it will be because there will be something more than just a coincidence. Experts would (I assume) agree that the possibility of a risk with this airframe or engine or something before a dramatic step.
This is not the first time where eerie situations happened within a short amount of time.
787 batteries, even the fact there was a virtually unbelievable suspicious time frame between 9/11 and the AA A300 crash, to this day I find that to be such a crazy circumstance. (No I don’t think that there was a conspiracy or terrorism - just shocking and unbelievable timing)


Agreed. Humans are very good at connecting unrelated events and finding patterns that don't exist it is part of how we work. I am more B than A but can honestly say the following:. If that was a 320neo and Lionair too, I would not be calling for a grounding.

Firstly there is a good deal of evidence the Lionair plane should have not been flying at all. Properly diagnosis the issues with that frame would have prevented the crash. Due to hardware failure a flight control system MAY have malfunctioned on that flight. On this flight that system should not have been active at this stage of flight.

Again the only similarities are the type of aircraft and the fact there was some altitude instability. What people forget is there have been COUNTLESS accidents on other flights that had altitude instability and control problems.
I don't care what you think of my opinion. It's my opinion, so have a nice day :)
 
Ferminios
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Sun Mar 10, 2019 1:55 pm

I really hope that the black boxes are quickly recovered. Grounding the 737MAX right now based on the information that's public is a bit premature - keep in mind as well that those that are drawing conclusions on FR24 data have a limited dataset that apparently does not cover the entire flight (see FR24 tweet https://twitter.com/flightradar24/statu ... 3613764609 )

Ruling out a grounding altogether is not correct either in my view. I'm sure that a grounding will be on the table as a serious option with the authorities should the recorders uncover parallels with JT610. Having two airframes of the same type crash in a similar way in an industry that operates on a safety first basis should provide enough basis to do that. I can't imagine in such a scenario that commercial reasons outweigh the potential further loss of life.
 
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Mortyman
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Sun Mar 10, 2019 1:56 pm

8 crew … Isn't that a lot for a Boeing 737 ?
 
anshabhi
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Sun Mar 10, 2019 1:58 pm

F35s were grounded twice following serious accidents so why not B38M too?

Mortyman wrote:
8 crew … Isn't that a lot for a Boeing 737 ?


2 pilots, 6 FAs for a Full Service Carrier with business cabin and food seems fine.
Last edited by anshabhi on Sun Mar 10, 2019 2:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
Pavlakakos
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Sun Mar 10, 2019 1:58 pm

MrBren wrote:
Time to ground all 737MAX, too many casualties.


Grounding entire fleets are not viable options. There are companies which have an all-737 fleet. Would you shut them down?

What is needed with urgency is the that investigation proceeds at record paces. AFAIK the final report on Lion 610 has not yet been released. I believe it's in Boeing's best interests to investigate ASAP before the plane gets a Comet-like or DC10-like reputation.

And imagine, if a serious percentage of a-netters call for a fleet grounding, what should the average Mr. Flying Joe think of?
 
nachopants
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Sun Mar 10, 2019 2:00 pm

Mortyman wrote:
8 crew … Isn't that a lot for a Boeing 737 ?


Here is a quote from the Lion Air accident

"The flight's captain was an Indian national, who had flown with the airline for more than seven years and had about 6,000 hours of flight experience; and the co-pilot was an Indonesian who had about 5,000 hours of flight experience. The six flight attendants were also Indonesian"
 
Gulfstream500
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Sun Mar 10, 2019 2:00 pm

If this is truly a coincidence, and it’s two different mechanical issues, then I (and much of the general public) will truly be wondering why airlines have not grounded the plane yet (especially WN, AA, and AC). If it’s the same mechanical failure twice (in the more unlikely scenario), I will be wondering why Boeing and the airlines have not tried to fix the planes. Regardless, airlines and Boeing should be taking steps to insure the safety of their airplanes.
Last edited by Gulfstream500 on Sun Mar 10, 2019 2:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Can someone please start a wikipedia list of failed startup airlines? I am interested in seeing just how long it would be...
 
RogerMurdock
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Sun Mar 10, 2019 2:01 pm

Btblue wrote:
I think it's perfectly reasonable to draw conclusions between this flight, and the LionAir crash last year.
...
Same stage in the flight envelope.


Not at all the same stage in the flight envelope. MCAS, which was the final cause of the LionAir crash, can only operate with flaps retracted.
 
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zkojq
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Sun Mar 10, 2019 2:02 pm

PW100 wrote:
MD80Ttail wrote:
Again just ground Ethiopian and Lion Air. Looking at crash percentages that’s a better argument than grounding the Max. (Sarcasm). But that’s essentially the argument pro grounding folks are making. Why don’t they make the argument to ground the airlines..


Perhaps because the common denominator of these crashes, is not the airline, not the crash area (Asia, Africa), but rather the [exact] airplane type . . . ?


Right, but mentioning that is politically incorrect it seems. Whilst I'm not one calling for the MAX to be grounded, I do take issue with all the people insisting that it is not an option. In light of all the safety 'scandals' of recent years; 787 battery fires, 737MAX's MCAS, P&W GTF IFSDs and the durability of alloys inside the Rolls Royce Trent 1000s, it would be refreshing to see aviation authorities taking a more proactive approach to certification and to stop trusting everything that OEMs tell them.
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EightyFour
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Sun Mar 10, 2019 2:02 pm

Aesma wrote:
I'm not on the grounding bandwagon, but then again I'm in France, not that many 737Max flying here, and I don't have a flight scheduled on one, nor anyone I know.

Are people here scheduled to fly soon on one and if so what are your thoughts ?


I will (likely) fly on a DY MAX-8 with my wife in little over a week and I have absolutely no qualms or second thoughts about boarding and flying. I do get the feeling that most of the "ground now" crowd are more interested in scoring some cheap rhetorical points along partisan lines than the safety of the flying public.
 
PC12Fan
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Sun Mar 10, 2019 2:03 pm

First off, RIP to all victims of ET302.

I have to say that - I kinda agree with both sides here. If there were MAX aircraft going down at like, a once a week pace then yea, worldwide fleet should be grounded. But to say right now they should be grounded is simply a massive over reaction.

That said, from what limited info I have seen (vertical instability in same phases of flight) it's definitely a time to say - be aware of the situation. There is enough to make us say, "wait a second", you know? Have a proactive plan in case - God forbid - there is another incident.

People don't plan to fail.
Just when I think you've said the stupidest thing ever, you keep talkin'!
 
osiris30
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Sun Mar 10, 2019 2:04 pm

Gulfstream500 wrote:
If this is truly a coincidence, and it’s two different mechanical issues, then I (and much of the general public) will truly be wondering why airlines have not grounded the plane yet (especially WN, AA, and AC). If it’s the same mechanical failure twice (in the more unlikely scenario), I will be wondering why Boeing and the airlines have not tried to fix the planes.


You do realize WN, AA and AC would not have dispatched the Lion Air aircraft right. That aircraft should not have been in the air after 2 prior flights had issues too. It SHOULD have had more thorough MX.

As for this flight:. What it was pilot error. What if they took off without flaps and that left mcas active. What if it wasn't a mechanical problem at all.

There are a lot of possible explanations for this flight but no one is willing to explore them because.... I dun know...
I don't care what you think of my opinion. It's my opinion, so have a nice day :)
 
zoom321
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Sun Mar 10, 2019 2:04 pm

Very few things cause a brand new jet to crash at such high speed.
LionAir was due to MCAS falsely thinking it was in a stall pushing down the nose. But some say MCAS is not likely to be applicable here due to the likely flap setting.
What if this involves a real stall ? Due to the thin air plus the fact that Max is more prone to stall & harder to recover from one ? That's why B added MCAS didn't they ?
So the pilot tried to recover, including pushing down the nose ? but failed. Remember B tells everyone it's no harder to recover a Max than an NG, so no pilots received the proper training required to recover a Max.
 
giopan1975
Posts: 57
Joined: Wed Jun 03, 2009 7:55 pm

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Sun Mar 10, 2019 2:06 pm

Crash site points to a high speed dive similar to that of Lionair
 
flyingbird
Posts: 134
Joined: Thu Mar 03, 2005 7:21 pm

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Sun Mar 10, 2019 2:06 pm

log0008 wrote:
PW100 wrote:
flyingbird wrote:
No, it does not. The transponder data is AMSL. Airport is at 7600 feet so the aircraft never climbed more than 1000 feet.

https://twitter.com/flightradar24/statu ... 8317362177



Look at the graph:
* Blue line represents altitude;
* Blue line starts a 0 ft altitude, so clearly that is AGL;
* Blue line goes upto at least 8000 ft above runway (which is at 0 ft in the graph);
* ADD runway is at 7650 ft.;
Therefore is seems logical that the aircraft reached at least 15000 ft before data feed stopped.
And note that FR24 stated that data feed did not stop because of the crash, but because the aircraft left the FR24 covered area.

Further, it does seem logical that the aircraft "struggled" to reach 1000 ft AGL, when airspeed (yellow line in graph) reached 400 kts.

Or am I reading the graph incorrectly, somehow?


Image



FR24 knows when an aircraft is on the ground and reports it as 0 feet not if you were to take it as AGL the graph would say the aircraft went from 0 to 8000ft in less than 1 minute, completely impossible.


It's better to try to understand the data instead of claming that it's bad or impossible.
When on ground the transponder transmitts 0 altitude.
On take off the transponder changes to transmitting AMSL altitude.
And suddelty everything makes sense.
Same thing happens on landing, but other way around. From 7600 feet altitude goes to 0.

Image
 
anshabhi
Posts: 2100
Joined: Thu Oct 20, 2016 10:40 am

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Sun Mar 10, 2019 2:07 pm

RogerMurdock wrote:
Btblue wrote:
I think it's perfectly reasonable to draw conclusions between this flight, and the LionAir crash last year.
...
Same stage in the flight envelope.


Not at all the same stage in the flight envelope. MCAS, which was the final cause of the LionAir crash, can only operate with flaps retracted.


ADD has 3.7km long runways. I don't see why would they need flaps for takeoff here
 
osiris30
Posts: 2655
Joined: Sat Sep 30, 2006 10:16 am

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Sun Mar 10, 2019 2:09 pm

anshabhi wrote:
RogerMurdock wrote:
Btblue wrote:
I think it's perfectly reasonable to draw conclusions between this flight, and the LionAir crash last year.
...
Same stage in the flight envelope.


Not at all the same stage in the flight envelope. MCAS, which was the final cause of the LionAir crash, can only operate with flaps retracted.


ADD has 3.7km long runways. I don't see why would they need flaps for takeoff here


because the procedures for the aircraft require flaps... For many reasons. Flaps inhibit other systems and change behaviour of the aircraft. Taking off without flaps is a direct violation of the normal flight checklist.

If they took off without flaps this is 100% pilot error.
I don't care what you think of my opinion. It's my opinion, so have a nice day :)
 
User avatar
seahawk
Posts: 8514
Joined: Fri May 27, 2005 1:29 am

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Sun Mar 10, 2019 2:10 pm

The data we have is to conflicting to draw any conclusion from it.

We know the plane did not climb out as it should, but we also see a very high energy impact scene. That together with the speed increase indicates that the engines should have been delivering thrust as normal. At the moment everything is possible, from pilot error to technical problems or sabotage or even crew committed suicide.
Last edited by seahawk on Sun Mar 10, 2019 2:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
bob75013
Posts: 822
Joined: Tue Jun 23, 2015 5:05 pm

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Sun Mar 10, 2019 2:10 pm

anshabhi wrote:
RogerMurdock wrote:
Btblue wrote:
I think it's perfectly reasonable to draw conclusions between this flight, and the LionAir crash last year.
...
Same stage in the flight envelope.


Not at all the same stage in the flight envelope. MCAS, which was the final cause of the LionAir crash, can only operate with flaps retracted.


ADD has 3.7km long runways. I don't see why would they need flaps for takeoff here


Hot and high says they should.
 
MikeAlpha95
Posts: 12
Joined: Fri Aug 24, 2018 8:12 am

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Sun Mar 10, 2019 2:12 pm

bob75013 wrote:
anshabhi wrote:
RogerMurdock wrote:

Not at all the same stage in the flight envelope. MCAS, which was the final cause of the LionAir crash, can only operate with flaps retracted.


ADD has 3.7km long runways. I don't see why would they need flaps for takeoff here


Hot and high says they should.


They have to take off with flaps. The 737 is not certified for 0 flaps take off.
Last edited by MikeAlpha95 on Sun Mar 10, 2019 2:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
osiris30
Posts: 2655
Joined: Sat Sep 30, 2006 10:16 am

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Sun Mar 10, 2019 2:12 pm

seahawk wrote:
The data we have is to conflicting to draw any conclusion from it.

We know the plane did not climb out as it should, but we also see a very high energy impact scene. That together with the indicates that the engines should have been deliviring thrust as normal. At the moment everything is possible, from pilot error to technical problems or sabotage or even crew committed suicide.


No. The data is starting to look like a no flaps situation. Aircraft took off without flaps. Mcas active then. Speed would increase more rapidly than with flaps. Forgetting to set flaps would explain most of what we see and as someone posted ADD has long runways so the AC would get off without flaps.
I don't care what you think of my opinion. It's my opinion, so have a nice day :)

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