jumbojet
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Sun Mar 10, 2019 4:39 pm

ikolkyo wrote:
Looking at these photos it really looks to me the aircraft pancaked/hit the ground at some sort of angle to ground.

Also I’d like to repeat this again, MCAS can only be active in a flaps up condition. This aircraft did not make it far enough into flight for flaps to have already been retracted.


How do you know that? A pilot (or two) has said that at the 5-6 minute mark, flaps are in fact, usually retracted.
 
Wayfarer515
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Sun Mar 10, 2019 4:40 pm

And this is why we need new non-Western and greed driven manufacturers to come to save the flying public, I would happily fly any Comac plane rather than entering into a 737 now.
 
zakelwe
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Sun Mar 10, 2019 4:40 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
zakelwe wrote:
I take exception to this post because it shows an ingrained bias anchored in the past.

Africa, traditionally, has a poor aviation record due to the following

1. Extreme weather.
2. Poorer air training for pilots comparatively.
3. Non modern aircraft, often 2nd hand.
4. Maintenance less effective, magnified by 3.
5. Poor infrastructure.

However in this case, 1, 3 and 4 are negated. It is far too early to decide on the reason for this crash. The same argument was used for when Lion Air crashed, and it was far too early. That investigation is still ongoing.


Within hours of the accident, how did you eliminate 1,3 and 4?
Just throwing in "ongoing investigation" doesn't' hide which way you are leaning.
I file your assessment under structural or cultural R category. I eliminated individual, interpersonal and institutional categories.



I can elminate 1 3 and 4 just by looking at information for that flight. Thanks to the internet.

If you think that claim is wrong in this case post data otherwise and I will reconsider.
 
pilotaydin
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Sun Mar 10, 2019 4:41 pm

If the data is accurate from the excel table. It looks to me that the airplane took off, with a normal vertical speed considering the altitude of the airport. With good speed. Something went wrong where there was an acceleration and a gradual descent. followed by a climb again. It seems they could have lost SA trouble shooing something and the plane accelerated. I would think they got a GPWS warning because during the final seconds of the data you can see a positive vertical speed rate registered, and an incredible speed. Let's say that TAS was 380. If we divide 80 by 2 we get 40. If we subtract 40 from 380 we get an indicated speed of 340 knots as she went in. Looking at the photos that seems about right. I don't think this was a stabilizer issue, I believe this accident is a CFIT with the crew flying a new airplane and being distracted by something minor/unusual in the flight deck
The only time there is too much fuel onboard, is when you're on fire!
 
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PW100
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Sun Mar 10, 2019 4:41 pm

RogerMurdock wrote:
Btblue wrote:
I think it's perfectly reasonable to draw conclusions between this flight, and the LionAir crash last year.
...
Same stage in the flight envelope.


Not at all the same stage in the flight envelope. MCAS, which was the final cause of the LionAir crash, can only operate with flaps retracted.


I wonder how you reach that conclusion. Do we have hard data?
Keep in mind that:
a) the crash site is around 60 km away from departure airport; it does not seem far-fetched that flaps would be retracted at that stage;
b) FR24 data cut out (well) before the crash, due to lack of data coverage.
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estorilm
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Sun Mar 10, 2019 4:41 pm

On a side note (and I've never really had this type of concern before) I'm kinda worried about the CVR and FDR integrity. Considering the fragment size at the crash site, I'm kinda left scratching my head at how anything the size of those boxes could survive.

I realize they're solid-state, and they really only need to recover the heavily armored memory module portions of the recorders, but that could take a LONG TIME to find in that type of crash site.

I guess we'll put that 3,400 G spec to the test with this one. :(
 
OEMInsider
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Sun Mar 10, 2019 4:43 pm

Hi all,

An interesting discussion here, thought I'd add my 2c:
  • I think it's too early to ground the 737MAX, but not too early to consider it.
  • It's not enough to simply blame the pilots for making a mistake and move on. There is an expectation that the manufacturers make the aircraft relatively easy to fly (i.e. don't create an unreasonable burden on pilot workload). I don't think the Lion Air crash will lead to a legal liability for Boeing, but it seems to me that MCAS could have been implemented better.
  • I was really surprised that the Lion Air (JT610) incident appears to have been caused by a single faulty sensor. Don't we normally have redundancy for something so important?
  • I've done some Data Analytics at work using FR24 data - don't always trust it! Generally its OK, but there are some inaccuracies (data not synced properly etc).
  • I was curious about the similarities between the Lion Air crash and this one. Both sets of detailed ADSB data from FR24 are available here. I plotted them as best I could (for ET302 I've taken 'zero' time as when the vertical speed becomes >0. I think this shows there are similarities between these two incidents (although I've just done this quickly so feel free to point out if I've made a mistake) :)
Image

Thanks.
 
ClubCX
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Sun Mar 10, 2019 4:43 pm

ikolkyo wrote:
Also I’d like to repeat this again, MCAS can only be active in a flaps up condition.

Since we're speculating that there could be bugs in the software, that may not be true.
 
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ikolkyo
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Sun Mar 10, 2019 4:44 pm

jumbojet wrote:
ikolkyo wrote:
Looking at these photos it really looks to me the aircraft pancaked/hit the ground at some sort of angle to ground.

Also I’d like to repeat this again, MCAS can only be active in a flaps up condition. This aircraft did not make it far enough into flight for flaps to have already been retracted.


How do you know that? A pilot (or two) has said that at the 5-6 minute mark, flaps are in fact, usually retracted.


Look at the altitude graph, no chance flaps were retracted.

Image
https://twitter.com/satcom_guru/status/ ... 60096?s=21

Aircraft was also up in the air after a 2000ft take off roll, pretty short.
Last edited by ikolkyo on Sun Mar 10, 2019 4:47 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
MikeAlpha95
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Sun Mar 10, 2019 4:44 pm

For example:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9WOZPaO7gi0

around 60s after lift off the flaps are retracted...

Sure different height etc ..
Last edited by MikeAlpha95 on Sun Mar 10, 2019 4:46 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
jasonelantra
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Sun Mar 10, 2019 4:45 pm

Bring back the memory of the first few years when DC-10 was first introduced. Faulty cargo door design, hydraulic cables ripped apart when engine detached from wings....... :?
 
JAAlbert
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Sun Mar 10, 2019 4:45 pm

DeltaWings wrote:
Am I the only one who also considers a terrorist attack? Just a thought


Well, the pilot reported technical issues and requested return to ADD so, while possible, it does not appear an intentional act.
 
Vladex
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Sun Mar 10, 2019 4:46 pm

The 737 is too old of an air frame to graft a huge engine onto. It makes the aircraft unstable in flight. It is an unsafe design and must be withdrawn from service. Boeing clearly cannot be trusted to tell the truth.
 
bob75013
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Sun Mar 10, 2019 4:49 pm

Vladex wrote:
The 737 is too old of an air frame to graft a huge engine onto. It makes the aircraft unstable in flight. It is an unsafe design and must be withdrawn from service. Boeing clearly cannot be trusted to tell the truth.


So, where did you get your aeronautical engineering degree? We'd all like to know.
 
usflyguy
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Sun Mar 10, 2019 4:50 pm

Let’s ground the aircraft because 2 airlines with very small fleets of Max aircraft have had accidents, ET has 4. Over 100 have flown thousands of flights in the US and Europe.

Substandard training maybe?
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trent768
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Sun Mar 10, 2019 4:51 pm

I know I'm gonna get some heat from this, but I'll ask it anyway. Based on previous history, at what point will an aircraft type is grounded following some accidents? Take the DC10 for example, did they wait for the investigation result of the last accident or did they ground them immediately after the last accident?

Because what I get from combining the logic of some poster is like this:
Even if there is actually a hint of a fatal flaw on the design that may takes ages to be resolved or even officially discovered, keep the <insert aircraft type here> flying until they figured out what's wrong because at this point "no one know what happened" despite the initial hint. In the mean time, let millions of human being fly on that thing and gamble their lives because that's the right thing to do based on the current standard procedure and business sense. Beside, the airlines involved came from some "poor and nasty country that I can't even point out on the map", so it must be their fault. Also, no one I know were a victim so I don't care. <insert aircraft type here> rocks!
 
estorilm
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Sun Mar 10, 2019 4:51 pm

ikolkyo wrote:
jumbojet wrote:
ikolkyo wrote:
Looking at these photos it really looks to me the aircraft pancaked/hit the ground at some sort of angle to ground.

Also I’d like to repeat this again, MCAS can only be active in a flaps up condition. This aircraft did not make it far enough into flight for flaps to have already been retracted.


How do you know that? A pilot (or two) has said that at the 5-6 minute mark, flaps are in fact, usually retracted.


Look at the altitude graph, no chance flaps were retracted.

Image

For the 10,000th time, that DATA IS INCOMPLETE. The aircraft flew out of FR24 data coverage and continued on for a significant distance.

Use your head, that's NOT the crash site and the plane achieved substantial height and/or airspeed to create the crash site posted earlier.

I was hoping you'd see my (and many others) earlier posts, but you keep fixating on the idea that the plane only reached 1000' AGL. It clearly continued.

I'm trying to get an exact idea on the crash position relative to the airport, and the exact time of impact or at least when they made the call to ATC to return to the airport. Both of those should show a significant lapse (time and distance) since the end of the FR24 data and the pointless graph that keeps getting posted.

PS: Look at the actual numerical data points which graph is based on, the last output is normal, then all data stops. The crash WAS NOT recorded on that data. Period. FR24 has publicly stated this fact!
 
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sassiciai
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Sun Mar 10, 2019 4:52 pm

ikolkyo wrote:
Goodness people ok here are being ridiculous. Going off of 0 information and just starting their roasting of an aircraft. Let’s not jump the gun and let the investigators do their job.

My thoughts go out to the families of the accident.

Also note that MCAS only activated when flaps are up. This aircraft didn’t make it far enough into the flight for that to occur.
I also found this picture very interesting
Image
https://twitter.com/satcom_guru/status/ ... 60096?s=21

I think that your analysis here is 100% wrong.

Firstly, please tell us from where you get the info that has been used to draw this plot

Secondly, if you are using FR24 data, have you not noticed that in the hundreds of earlier post, MANY stated that FR24 coverage stops at circa 3 minutes flight time from the departure airport

Thirdly, the aircraft crashed way longer after the FR24 dats returns stopped being available. The data collection ceased due to lack of coverage, not because of any crash!
 
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XLA2008
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Sun Mar 10, 2019 4:55 pm

Vladex wrote:
The 737 is too old of an air frame to graft a huge engine onto. It makes the aircraft unstable in flight. It is an unsafe design and must be withdrawn from service. Boeing clearly cannot be trusted to tell the truth.


Oh goodness... they are all out on early release today!

Apparently you know the ins and outs of aircraft design and aerodynamics, along with being clearly not being trusted apparently every organization that certifies the new Max to fly also lies and can’t be trusted!
“For once you have tasted flight you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards, for there you have been and there you will long to return.“
 
YoungDon
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Sun Mar 10, 2019 4:55 pm

AeroplaneFreak wrote:
YoungDon wrote:
Given what we know right now, folks choosing to avoid the max is totally justified.


"What we know"? We don't know anything, all we have is speculative information.


Which is entirely my point.

I'll put it to you like this. Say there's an a tourist area that has been safe for decades. All of a sudden, one weekend, there's a series of random killings. Authorities haven't gotten to the bottom of why the killings happen, when a couple of weekends later, a similar series of killings happens.

You and your family are scheduled to go there for vacation two weeks after that, and the authorities still haven't figured out why there have been recent killings. In that situation, would you put your family at risk by going on the vacation anyway?

Some might, but many wouldn't, and they're totally justified in doing so. What we do know right now is that a new American aircraft type has only recently entered service and has now crashed twice in a short period of time. These are rates not seen in an American type since the DC-10 in the 70s, and that aircraft was grounded due to a design flaw. The idea that everything is OK and a design flaw in the Max certainly could not be the case is a result of the deification of aircraft manufacturers around here. Just like pilots, mechanics, and everyone else involved in aviation, Boeing engineers are human and fallible. Until we know more, I personally won't be flying any Maxes and neither will my family.
 
bob75013
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Sun Mar 10, 2019 4:55 pm

trent768 wrote:
I know I'm gonna get some heat from this, but I'll ask it anyway. Based on previous history, at what point will an aircraft type is grounded following some accidents? Take the DC10 for example, did they wait for the investigation result of the last accident or did they ground them immediately after the last accident?

!


I think the DC10s were grounded because the left engine was found on the departure runway at ORD. Everyone knew what had happened -- the engine fell off. The question was why.

At this point no one has anything near that detail about what happened today.
Last edited by bob75013 on Sun Mar 10, 2019 5:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
SteinarN
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Sun Mar 10, 2019 4:56 pm

ikolkyo wrote:
jumbojet wrote:
ikolkyo wrote:
Looking at these photos it really looks to me the aircraft pancaked/hit the ground at some sort of angle to ground.

Also I’d like to repeat this again, MCAS can only be active in a flaps up condition. This aircraft did not make it far enough into flight for flaps to have already been retracted.


How do you know that? A pilot (or two) has said that at the 5-6 minute mark, flaps are in fact, usually retracted.


Look at the altitude graph, no chance flaps were retracted.

Image
https://twitter.com/satcom_guru/status/ ... 60096?s=21

Aircraft was also up in the air after a 2000ft take off roll, pretty short.


If you have read a few of the posts in this tread, instead of just reading some headline, you would have been aware the aircraft was airborne some 6 minutes, not just those 2-3 minutes depicted in your graphic. The reason for this is your graphic is based on FR24 data, and FR24 have explicitly said they have poor cover in this region and therefore they have not been able to receive data from the last 3-4 minutes of the flight. The crash site is some 60 km from the airport, nowhere near where the flight path ends in your graphic.
Last edited by SteinarN on Sun Mar 10, 2019 5:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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BobleBrave
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Sun Mar 10, 2019 5:00 pm

zakelwe wrote:
BobleBrave wrote:
dtwpilot225 wrote:
I can’t belive the first thing people are saying on this thread is ground the max! What if there was a terrorist on board, should we still ground it then?
We have no idea what caused this crash can we wait a couple days for our knee jerk reactions?
People died here


As many other posters have noted, the reason is called "precautionary principle" : "When an activity raises threats of harm to human health, precautionary measures should be taken even if some cause and effect relationships are not fully established scientifically."
On such a situation, this principle does not benefit Boeing and its economic performance but rather the safety of passengers.



What is the activity you are referring to in this case that raises threats to humans?

Nobody knows the reason for this crash at the moment, so how can you determine the activity?

I'm guessing you cannot name the activity.

??


This is a general principle. "Activity" is to be understood as "flying the MAX at the current level of understanding of this crash". But more importantly, you seem to have missed the part of that definition that matters, which is : "even if some cause and effect relationships are not fully established". Lack of proof/knowledge about the cause of the crash, is in this context an argument advocating FOR a temporary grounding, not against...
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sandyb123
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Sun Mar 10, 2019 5:01 pm

The FR24 data stops at an altitude of 8,700ft AGL and 383 knots. The flaps would have been fully retracted making MCAS active.

Sandyb123
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RB211trent
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Sun Mar 10, 2019 5:02 pm

Seems to me people are more concerned about damaging Boeing and the 737.
 
sandyb123
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Sun Mar 10, 2019 5:03 pm

akb88 wrote:
Should I be having concerns about my flight with Norwegian 737-800 to Athens in about a month? Different aircraf from the one that crashed but my anxiety riddled mind is getting nervous about these planes.


The NG’s don’t have the system that caused problems on LionAir 610. The MCAS system is potentially the culprit here but either way the 800 NG doesn’t have the system.
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THS214
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Sun Mar 10, 2019 5:03 pm

soectre99 wrote:
EmoticonsAllDay wrote:
So much for the impeccable saftey record of the 737 family. I'm not flying any MAX planes until the problem is definitely resolved. Better to be safe than sorry.


It is literally far safer to fly on a Max (taking into account these 2 incidents) than sitting in a car on the way to an airport.


I doubt that. So far there are well over 300 dead flying Max. I doubt that many people have died on their way to a max flight.
 
trnswrld
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Sun Mar 10, 2019 5:05 pm

Vladex wrote:
The 737 is too old of an air frame to graft a huge engine onto. It makes the aircraft unstable in flight. It is an unsafe design and must be withdrawn from service. Boeing clearly cannot be trusted to tell the truth.


Oh is it? Well geez why didnt you tell Boeing that instead of waiting for a couple crashes to happen?

Unreal the bullshit here.
 
bob75013
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Sun Mar 10, 2019 5:05 pm

akb88 wrote:
Should I be having concerns about my flight with Norwegian 737-800 to Athens in about a month? Different aircraf from the one that crashed but my anxiety riddled mind is getting nervous about these planes.


Let's answer your question with a question. Tell us what happened in the last 737-800 crash?
 
ual763
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Sun Mar 10, 2019 5:06 pm

jumbojet wrote:
ikolkyo wrote:
Looking at these photos it really looks to me the aircraft pancaked/hit the ground at some sort of angle to ground.

Also I’d like to repeat this again, MCAS can only be active in a flaps up condition. This aircraft did not make it far enough into flight for flaps to have already been retracted.


How do you know that? A pilot (or two) has said that at the 5-6 minute mark, flaps are in fact, usually retracted.


On a 737, yes they are usually retracted by the 5-6 minute mark. The only exceptions to this are typically jumbojets that are at or near MTOW. However... If there were issues before the flaps were completely retracted, the crew may have chosen not to change configurations (meaning put flaps up) in order not to possibly make them worse. But only the FDR will know if they were up or not.
From flying to the NOTAM office
 
osiris30
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Sun Mar 10, 2019 5:07 pm

estorilm wrote:
MD80Ttail wrote:
Wow. That’s surreal. Must have been near vertical dive. Horrible.

True - which kinda throws out a number of other theories here IMHO. The first of which is the radar / transponder info we have, which (as some have said) clearly stops very early. Shortly after take off, hot and high, with a full pax load (albeit not a ton of fuel) there's no way the aircraft could achieve sufficient velocity to create what is (after studying almost every major air crash in the jet age) the most devastating impact / crash site I've ever seen.

Likewise, I think we can rule out any / all types of engine failure here - they'd ALL result in a relatively low velocity, and even if they initiated some kind of bizarre nose-dive (I don't even know how..) I still don't see how you'd achieve the impact crater we see here. A mis-handled engine failure SHOULD result in a crash short of the field, crash while turning back due to stall (flat-type crash) or all-out stall (again, a flat crash site with large pieces of debris).

GEUltraFan9XGTF wrote:
What if the plane was simply overloaded and overweight? What would that explain?

The short flight time makes this almost impossible due to unused fuel weight.

osiris30 wrote:
No. The data is starting to look like a no flaps situation. Aircraft took off without flaps. Mcas active then. Speed would increase more rapidly than with flaps. Forgetting to set flaps would explain most of what we see and as someone posted ADD has long runways so the AC would get off without flaps.

This would go against every takeoff all crew have ever done - they don't just "decide" to not use flaps. As others have said, there's no procedure for a no-flaps takeoff, the aircraft isn't certified for it.
Also I'm guessing it would sound an aural "takeoff config" warning once they advanced the throttles, but I'd need a 737 driver to verify that.


not saying it happened. But it is as much a possibility as just about anything else right now. Or they had a very low flap take off and stowed them very quickly with unexpected consequences. Regardless is it odd.
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GEUltraFan9XGTF
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Sun Mar 10, 2019 5:07 pm

So why did data broadcast cease? Why is the altitude data so incomplete?

Let's assume that flaps were brought back to 0 shortly after data transmission ended. Are we assuming that MCAS stepped in immediately? With or without the pitot tubes accurately feeding AOA data to the FMS? We know that Lion Air was having such mechanical issues. So much that the engineer took pics and flew with the plane. Let's assume the Ethiopian plane had completely fine hardware feeding the FMS with accurate AOA data. Would MCAS still step in? Should we assume that there are still MAX pilots who, in the past few months, have learned nothing about mitigating MCAS? If MCAS did step in, despite receiving accurate data, then MCAS has a new fault mode we don't know about. Could Boeing have, not publicly, updated MCAS in the meantime but perhaps this update created new faults?
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klm617
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Sun Mar 10, 2019 5:08 pm

Could it be we have created a machine that is far more intelligent that the people who were meant to operated it.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
akb88
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Sun Mar 10, 2019 5:09 pm

bob75013 wrote:
akb88 wrote:
Should I be having concerns about my flight with Norwegian 737-800 to Athens in about a month? Different aircraf from the one that crashed but my anxiety riddled mind is getting nervous about these planes.


Let's answer your question with a question. Tell us what happened in the last 737-800 crash?


No idea........
 
32andBelow
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Sun Mar 10, 2019 5:09 pm

THS214 wrote:
soectre99 wrote:
EmoticonsAllDay wrote:
So much for the impeccable saftey record of the 737 family. I'm not flying any MAX planes until the problem is definitely resolved. Better to be safe than sorry.


It is literally far safer to fly on a Max (taking into account these 2 incidents) than sitting in a car on the way to an airport.


I doubt that. So far there are well over 300 dead flying Max. I doubt that many people have died on their way to a max flight.

Well one was lion air and the other one can most definitely wind up being terorism.
 
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JohnKrist
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Sun Mar 10, 2019 5:10 pm

mm320cap wrote:
JohnKrist wrote:
United Airlines have had more incidents and deaths than ET in the same timeframe, Lion has had one major crash in 16 years of operation. Heck, KLM caused more deaths in One accident than Lion and ET together have in their lifetime.



What are you talking about???? Ethiopian had a fatal crash in 2009 killing 90. Not counting hijackings (which both Ethiopian and UAL have been victims of), United lost 1 passenger to turbulence in 1997. The last fatal accident on a UAL plane was in 1991. Considering the number of flights UAL does per year compared to Ethiopian, your insinuation that Ethiopian and Lion are safer than UAL is laughable.


Sorry if I wasn't clear enough I meant the 55 years that ET has been operating as some stated that ET is an unsafe airline. In that timeframe UAL has had more deaths than ET. Both are IMO safe airlines.
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GEUltraFan9XGTF
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Sun Mar 10, 2019 5:11 pm

sandyb123 wrote:
akb88 wrote:
Should I be having concerns about my flight with Norwegian 737-800 to Athens in about a month? Different aircraf from the one that crashed but my anxiety riddled mind is getting nervous about these planes.


The NG’s don’t have the system that caused problems on LionAir 610. The MCAS system is potentially the culprit here but either way the 800 NG doesn’t have the system.


I think that's an inaccurate statement. The NG has a similar system with a different name and not as aggressive as I understand it.
© 2019. All statements are my own. The use of my statements, including by journalists, YouTube vloggers like "DJ's Aviation", etc. without my written consent is strictly prohibited.
 
MigPilot
Posts: 44
Joined: Wed Nov 09, 2005 6:17 am

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Sun Mar 10, 2019 5:12 pm

klm617 wrote:
Could it be we have created a machine that is far more intelligent that the people who were meant to operated it.


That... is the real question!
 
osiris30
Posts: 2655
Joined: Sat Sep 30, 2006 10:16 am

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Sun Mar 10, 2019 5:12 pm

crimsonchin wrote:
Boeing isn't in the habit of pushing out defective airplanes, so the quickness with which people are jumping to blame this on the MAX is a bit strange, considering so far nothing (or at least not anything I've seen) besides the models being the same points to this accident is similar to the LionAir crash.

osiris30 wrote:
Agreed. Humans are very good at connecting unrelated events and finding patterns that don't exist it is part of how we work. I am more B than A but can honestly say the following:. If that was a 320neo and Lionair too, I would not be calling for a grounding.


Yes, as someone who's been reading this forum since 2007, your objectivity on all things Airbus makes this very believable.


Have you seen me call for the grounding of an Airbus type after an accident ever? I have questioned their business model plenty, disliked the business case for the 380 (so did the world) and had questions about some of their automation tools (which as a software guy I feel are fair and when answered dropped the question). If you can find where I called for grounding an Airbus type please point it out.
I don't care what you think of my opinion. It's my opinion, so have a nice day :)
 
bob75013
Posts: 829
Joined: Tue Jun 23, 2015 5:05 pm

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Sun Mar 10, 2019 5:12 pm

akb88 wrote:
bob75013 wrote:
akb88 wrote:
Should I be having concerns about my flight with Norwegian 737-800 to Athens in about a month? Different aircraf from the one that crashed but my anxiety riddled mind is getting nervous about these planes.


Let's answer your question with a question. Tell us what happened in the last 737-800 crash?


No idea........


I think that is the point...
 
Wacker1000
Posts: 178
Joined: Tue Jan 07, 2014 6:36 pm

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Sun Mar 10, 2019 5:13 pm

klm617 wrote:
Could it be we have created a machine that is far more intelligent that the people who were meant to operated it.


Possibly if it was a 787. If the 737 is more intelligent than you then there is a problem. It is probably the least complicated western commercial aircraft in service today.
Last edited by Wacker1000 on Sun Mar 10, 2019 5:14 pm, edited 3 times in total.
 
JAAlbert
Posts: 1937
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2006 12:43 pm

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Sun Mar 10, 2019 5:13 pm

osiris30 wrote:
seahawk wrote:
The data we have is to conflicting to draw any conclusion from it.

We know the plane did not climb out as it should, but we also see a very high energy impact scene. That together with the indicates that the engines should have been deliviring thrust as normal. At the moment everything is possible, from pilot error to technical problems or sabotage or even crew committed suicide.


No. The data is starting to look like a no flaps situation. Aircraft took off without flaps. Mcas active then. Speed would increase more rapidly than with flaps. Forgetting to set flaps would explain most of what we see and as someone posted ADD has long runways so the AC would get off without flaps.


Just from a historical perspective, flap retraction certainly sounds like a plausible explanation given that this flight never gained more than a 1000 or so feet. A number of flap related air crashes have occurred in the past and all of them struggled to gain altitude and crashed shortly after take off.

Still, others have posted that attempting a take off with flaps retracted will result in an loud alarm that the pilots could not have missed. If flaps were retracted, is it possible that the alarm was somehow disabled or faulty? I am not a pilot, but knowing ADD is high altitude, it seems that flaps would be something the pilots would know to activate even if the runway were long. And as others have noted, MAX isn't certified for take off without flaps.
 
LennyM8472
Posts: 2
Joined: Wed Apr 19, 2017 7:08 am

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Sun Mar 10, 2019 5:18 pm

OEMInsider wrote:
Hi all,

An interesting discussion here, thought I'd add my 2c:
  • I think it's too early to ground the 737MAX, but not too early to consider it.
  • It's not enough to simply blame the pilots for making a mistake and move on. There is an expectation that the manufacturers make the aircraft relatively easy to fly (i.e. don't create an unreasonable burden on pilot workload). I don't think the Lion Air crash will lead to a legal liability for Boeing, but it seems to me that MCAS could have been implemented better.
  • I was really surprised that the Lion Air (JT610) incident appears to have been caused by a single faulty sensor. Don't we normally have redundancy for something so important?
  • I've done some Data Analytics at work using FR24 data - don't always trust it! Generally its OK, but there are some inaccuracies (data not synced properly etc).
  • I was curious about the similarities between the Lion Air crash and this one. Both sets of detailed ADSB data from FR24 are available here. I plotted them as best I could (for ET302 I've taken 'zero' time as when the vertical speed becomes >0. I think this shows there are similarities between these two incidents (although I've just done this quickly so feel free to point out if I've made a mistake) :)
Image

Thanks.


probably the best analysis so far.
 
RickNRoll
Posts: 1728
Joined: Fri Jan 06, 2012 9:30 am

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Sun Mar 10, 2019 5:18 pm

jumbojet wrote:
ikolkyo wrote:
Looking at these photos it really looks to me the aircraft pancaked/hit the ground at some sort of angle to ground.

Also I’d like to repeat this again, MCAS can only be active in a flaps up condition. This aircraft did not make it far enough into flight for flaps to have already been retracted.


How do you know that? A pilot (or two) has said that at the 5-6 minute mark, flaps are in fact, usually retracted.


If it was MCAS, and at this point in time we are only guessing, then this could have been about the time they were retracted.
 
akb88
Posts: 134
Joined: Sat Feb 09, 2019 2:44 am

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Sun Mar 10, 2019 5:19 pm

bob75013 wrote:
akb88 wrote:
bob75013 wrote:

Let's answer your question with a question. Tell us what happened in the last 737-800 crash?


No idea........


I think that is the point...


Yeah.......
but doesn't tell me why I shouldn't have concerns
 
cc47
Posts: 122
Joined: Wed Dec 31, 2014 3:02 pm

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Sun Mar 10, 2019 5:19 pm

What happened this once respectable community?...
RIP to those perished.
 
bob75013
Posts: 829
Joined: Tue Jun 23, 2015 5:05 pm

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Sun Mar 10, 2019 5:21 pm

akb88 wrote:
bob75013 wrote:
akb88 wrote:

No idea........


I think that is the point...


Yeah.......
but doesn't tell me why I shouldn't have concerns


Maybe you shouldn't be flying at all.
 
User avatar
PA110
Posts: 1962
Joined: Sat Dec 06, 2003 1:30 am

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Sun Mar 10, 2019 5:22 pm

Vladex wrote:
The 737 is too old of an air frame to graft a huge engine onto. It makes the aircraft unstable in flight. It is an unsafe design and must be withdrawn from service. Boeing clearly cannot be trusted to tell the truth.


And this declaration comes with how many years of aviation design or aeronautical engineering? Or is it yet another in a long line of astonishingly uninformed posts in this thread?
It's been swell, but the swelling has gone down.
 
PacificBeach
Posts: 81
Joined: Sat Feb 16, 2013 8:13 pm

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Sun Mar 10, 2019 5:24 pm

bob75013 wrote:
akb88 wrote:
bob75013 wrote:

I think that is the point...


Yeah.......
but doesn't tell me why I shouldn't have concerns


Maybe you shouldn't be flying at all.

It does not have to be black and white. He can just avoid the types with bad record.
 
akb88
Posts: 134
Joined: Sat Feb 09, 2019 2:44 am

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Sun Mar 10, 2019 5:25 pm

bob75013 wrote:
akb88 wrote:
bob75013 wrote:

I think that is the point...


Yeah.......
but doesn't tell me why I shouldn't have concerns


Maybe you shouldn't be flying at all.


Well...I've not alwyas been like this and infact used to be big into aviation. Bad bouts of anxiety in the last couple of years have made me into a more doom and gloom type of person.

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