A320FlyGuy
Posts: 260
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Sun Mar 10, 2019 6:52 pm

PA110 wrote:
afgeneral wrote:
This is getting ridiculous, you don't have to be an aerospace engineer, 737 MAX maintenance worker, 737 MAX pilot or instructor, Boeing design engineer, FAA executive or whatever in order to have a valid opinion on this topic...

...we know they are a bit unstable by design


What on earth has led you to this conclusion? This is PRECISELY why a layperson's (lack of) understanding is so critically flawed. You can have all the opinions you want, but that doesn't make them correct.

The aircraft is not unstable by design. It's simply different. MCAS was introduced to narrow handling differences so that pilots could share type rating between NG and MAX.

Here is a good reference between the differences can be found HERE, written by an actual 737 training pilot


No....it is unstable because the weight and balance characteristics have been altered by the larger and heavier LEAP engines. Boeing has tried to use software that is either poorly executed or poorly documented or poorly communicated or all of the above. Relaxed stability is fine in military aircraft...but this aircraft is carrying thousands of passengers every day. It should be designed to be stable and not have any “gotcha” features.

Boeing was forced into the 737MAX due to the A320neo...and while the A320 platform had and still has considerable growth potential, the 737 is old. You can put makeup on a pig but it’s still a pig. If the handling of the 737MAX is so different that Boeing had to create software to make it feel the same as the NG just to get it on the same type Certificate, that says something right there about the stability and handling of the aircraft right out of the box.

From the link you posted:

Handling

The thrust line has changed from the NG because the engines had to be moved forward and up to accomodate the larger fan diameter. Any handling differences as a result of this have been tuned out by Boeing in the flight control system to make the types feel the same to crew. This was necessary for certification under the same type certificate.
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JAAlbert
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Sun Mar 10, 2019 6:53 pm

A new thread has been started re: an Indonesian official's call to ground all MAX aircraft pending investigation. Perhaps everyone can switch their comments re: "ground the fleet" vs. "don't ground the fleet" vs. "let's think about grounding the fleet" to that thread, and this one can focus on the data and other factual events related to the current incident. Just a thought :scratchchin:
 
LTC8K6
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Sun Mar 10, 2019 6:55 pm

Interested wrote:
LTC8K6 wrote:
Interested wrote:

How many other flights of this plane have given the pilots problems early in the flight they've had to deal with though?

As someone said earlier in the thread we don't want planes that give any problems. We want planes that are safe and easy to fly?


Which problem on which flight?

I am unaware of any definite links.


We know that the Flight previous to the Lion flight that crashed was full of problems for the pilots. Which they had to deal with.

We've had 200,000 flights between the lion crash and this one yet we have the findings from the lion flight we have to wait for and the findings from this one we have to wait for

Two flights that needed 100s to die that MAY or MAY NOT suggest a potential .inherent problem

Why aren't we all over the other 200,000 flights AND flights prior to the Lion crash of the same planes to see how many more times there have been issues close to take off that haven't caused crashes but might have done? Why is it just these disasters we try to learn from? When it's too late?

I don't get the fact that we have to wait for the results of the Lion crash and the results of this one to figure out if there is a major problem with this plane. If there have been lots of issues for pilots to deal with let's find out and do something.

Surely we have live witness reports from 100s of other live pilots to figure out if something is not right with these planes?

Or do we only count crashes?


I don't find your line of thinking on the matter convincing.

When we know what the causes are, we can then make decisions, and not before.

If you fix the wrong thing, you will only have more crashes.
 
Varsity1
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Sun Mar 10, 2019 6:56 pm

So the first officer had 200 hours? This was probably his first flight flying a jet of any kind. I would suspect a loss of control.
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Mortyman
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Sun Mar 10, 2019 6:57 pm

Some fairly big pieces of wreckage too ...

Image

Image

Image

Photo: Yidnek Kirubel, AP

Image

Photo: Michael Tewelde/ AFP
 
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dangerhere
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Sun Mar 10, 2019 6:57 pm

EU safety authorities will be keeping a close eye on this one, of that you can be sure. Whatever about the one in Indonesia, this second one had 50 Europeans, several UN folks, a company CEO and even the family of a Slovak MP perish. At best this is damaging to Boeing's reputation in Europe, at worst game over for them with the 737 Max if there should be a third crash in the next 18 months or so. Likewise Ryanair and Norwegian will be keeping a close eye on developments.
 
LTC8K6
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Sun Mar 10, 2019 6:58 pm

AYVN wrote:
Do someone know where the plane went down compared to where the data ended?


Pretty close I thought, given the height of the airport?
 
gadFly
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Sun Mar 10, 2019 6:59 pm

Sorry if already posted. This piece from the Seattle Times is perhaps the most level headed at this stage in the tragedy:
https://www.seattletimes.com/business/b ... e_left_1.1
 
OEMInsider
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Sun Mar 10, 2019 7:02 pm

osiris30 wrote:
OEMInsider wrote:
osiris30 wrote:

Different:

Radical differences in air speed.
Radical differences in initial climb out performance
Radical differences in airport elevation
Incomplete FR data on the 2nd flight leave a partial snap shot
No (currently) prior reports of problems on the aircraft involved (vs. Lion Air).
Ethiopian crash takes place after warnings issued to revise training for pilots on mitigation of MCAS issue that contributed to Lion Air.

If you are going to put together a list of relevant difference between the two incidents please try to be a little more inclusive.

Firstly you're last comment is unnecessary in an otherwise good post - of course I'm not going to think of everything all on my own, this is why its called a forum.

I wouldn't say the differences in speed and climb perfo were that radical, although you're right to point out that the difference in altitude will change things. You're also right to point out that the Lion Air plane had a previous problem which was not resolved, although that doesn't rule out the possibility that ET302 was the first flight after the fault occurred (but does make the same scenario less likely).

I think the most important point is that the pilots on ET302 should have been aware of the previous incident and accounted for that type of problem. However, 6 mins is not a very long time and we know from a number of crashes (often Airbuses) that pilots sometimes don't make that link back to their training when their aircraft behaves in an unfamiliar way.


1) re comment about inclusive: Probably fair. A bit bothered at the moment by a lot of illogical nonsense on this thread. So apologies.

2) If you look at your own graph both flight speed and climb performance are radically different. Problems also started immediate on take off in the new data (give or take) at about ~1,000ft AGL. An altitude that should still have flaps and therefore no MCAS.

3) ET302 could have been like Lion Air's flight 1 that first had the problem, but again that doesn't make sense as why would you have no flaps at 1000ft agl a few seconds after rotation. Also the run away speed seems to overspeed given the altitude and I have to wonder if the flight directory was off entirely at that point.


I wouldn't want to read too much into the fine details of the FR24 data. A reading of zero could be either the a/c suddenly leveled off, or simply that the data is missing. I've used this kind of data before and I know there are issues with its quality (there's a reason FR24 themselves only report every 5 secs or so, instead of this level of granularity). Also, I've only taken a guess at lining up the two sets of data, I don't know when the JT610 data starts (take off I guess), the ET302 clearly starts earlier than that. I see that both aircraft hit problems within the first couple of minutes, including a large and sustained nose-down pitch (negative Vspeed, large increase in ground speed). I take your point though.

For your point 3 - I'm not convinced that MCAS is solely responsible. If a faulty AoA sensor activated a stick-shaker, for example, that would also trigger a response from the pilots (I think this was reported on JT610). If MCAS then kicks in when the flaps are retracted, it could make the problems worse. Mainly, we need to hope that the FDR is found, as that will include clear evidence of a faulty sensor. I guess they would announce pretty quickly if they find it, but it might take a while to find out if the data has survived.
 
garf25
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Sun Mar 10, 2019 7:02 pm

No evidence of fire from a fully laden plane? Thoughts on this?
 
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anfromme
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Sun Mar 10, 2019 7:03 pm

LTC8K6 wrote:
When we know the causes of the two crashes, then we can talk about taking action.

Taking action before you know the causes, is not a good idea.
That's not really true in a lot of circumstances. It's often wise to take some action you know/hope is going to stop the adverse effect you're seeing even if you don't know the root cause yet. Quite often you do something immediately to avert danger and then spend ages to figure out what went wrong and why.
That said - as soon as you have an incling of what might have contributed to the issue, you act accordingly. Hence the airworthiness directive regarding MCAS shortly after the LionAir crash even though there wasn't any final report yet.

Mind you I am not advocating a grounding of all MAX at this point, but to blankly say "taking action before you know the cause is a bad idea", I think this is manifestly wrong. As has been pointed out, it sometimes is especially advisable to prevent reoccurrence by halting operations until you know what was wrong to begin with.
Again, I'm not saying we're at this point.
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estorilm
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Sun Mar 10, 2019 7:04 pm

Oh boy, CNN has their aviation correspondent Richard Quest on.
In 30 seconds so far, they've screwed everything up. Anchor says "so, in this situation, there was no distress call, nothing, what does that mean" - Richard: "well, frankly, it means a lot.. " (mind you they did make a call to ATC) "first we see the plane make a steep climb" (presumably he looked at the FR24 data and forgot to check the airport altitude and interpreted that as a climb after take off) "at relatively low speed" (uh, actually it was quite fast!) "then plummeted to the ground" (aka when FR24 data ended?)

Yikes.

Oh wow he just said that's its significant that two of the same aircraft have fallen out of the sky within 6-8 months of each other. ....I'm pretty sure their "aviation correspondent" should know that it was 4.5 months ago. :roll:

The fact that he gave a date "range" for the crashes is kinda proof that he's full of it.
Last edited by estorilm on Sun Mar 10, 2019 7:05 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
AYVN
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Sun Mar 10, 2019 7:04 pm

LTC8K6 wrote:
AYVN wrote:
Do someone know where the plane went down compared to where the data ended?


Pretty close I thought, given the height of the airport?

I thought that plane stayed in the air several minutes past end of data. Does someone have a map location of the crash site? Is it in same direction as last piece of data?
 
LTC8K6
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Sun Mar 10, 2019 7:05 pm

OEMInsider wrote:
osiris30 wrote:
OEMInsider wrote:
Firstly you're last comment is unnecessary in an otherwise good post - of course I'm not going to think of everything all on my own, this is why its called a forum.

I wouldn't say the differences in speed and climb perfo were that radical, although you're right to point out that the difference in altitude will change things. You're also right to point out that the Lion Air plane had a previous problem which was not resolved, although that doesn't rule out the possibility that ET302 was the first flight after the fault occurred (but does make the same scenario less likely).

I think the most important point is that the pilots on ET302 should have been aware of the previous incident and accounted for that type of problem. However, 6 mins is not a very long time and we know from a number of crashes (often Airbuses) that pilots sometimes don't make that link back to their training when their aircraft behaves in an unfamiliar way.


1) re comment about inclusive: Probably fair. A bit bothered at the moment by a lot of illogical nonsense on this thread. So apologies.

2) If you look at your own graph both flight speed and climb performance are radically different. Problems also started immediate on take off in the new data (give or take) at about ~1,000ft AGL. An altitude that should still have flaps and therefore no MCAS.

3) ET302 could have been like Lion Air's flight 1 that first had the problem, but again that doesn't make sense as why would you have no flaps at 1000ft agl a few seconds after rotation. Also the run away speed seems to overspeed given the altitude and I have to wonder if the flight directory was off entirely at that point.


I wouldn't want to read too much into the fine details of the FR24 data. A reading of zero could be either the a/c suddenly leveled off, or simply that the data is missing. I've used this kind of data before and I know there are issues with its quality (there's a reason FR24 themselves only report every 5 secs or so, instead of this level of granularity). Also, I've only taken a guess at lining up the two sets of data, I don't know when the JT610 data starts (take off I guess), the ET302 clearly starts earlier than that. I see that both aircraft hit problems within the first couple of minutes, including a large and sustained nose-down pitch (negative Vspeed, large increase in ground speed). I take your point though.

For your point 3 - I'm not convinced that MCAS is solely responsible. If a faulty AoA sensor activated a stick-shaker, for example, that would also trigger a response from the pilots (I think this was reported on JT610). If MCAS then kicks in when the flaps are retracted, it could make the problems worse. Mainly, we need to hope that the FDR is found, as that will include clear evidence of a faulty sensor. I guess they would announce pretty quickly if they find it, but it might take a while to find out if the data has survived.


https://www.flightradar24.com/blog/flig ... light-302/

Important note: altitude data reported by ADS-B is the pressure altitude at standard pressure and not the altitude above ground level. This is why some values may be below the ground altitude at Addis Ababa airport. Standard pressure is 1013 hPa, pressure reported at HAAB | ADD at the time of accident was 1029 hPa. Airport elevation is 7625 feet MSL. All altitude data when the aircraft is ‘on ground’ is reported as 0. Airborne altitude values are report as stated above.
 
A320FlyGuy
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Sun Mar 10, 2019 7:05 pm

garf25 wrote:
No evidence of fire from a fully laden plane? Thoughts on this?


Often in a high speed impact, the fuel will disperse on impact and there won’t be a significant post crash fire.

The Turkish Airlines DC-10 that crashed outside Paris had a relatively large fuel load but fire was minimal due to the high speed of impact. That could likely be the case here.
My other car is an A320-200
 
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Veigar
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Sun Mar 10, 2019 7:07 pm

Does anyone mind providing a statistic that shows there were 200,000 flights between the Lion incident and this one?
 
estorilm
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Sun Mar 10, 2019 7:08 pm

garf25 wrote:
No evidence of fire from a fully laden plane? Thoughts on this?

I think it was about a two hour flight, not a ton of fuel. Regardless, when a plane impacts at this angle and with such velocity, the fuel is vaporized and the impact usually prevents any sort of ignition.
 
Aither
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Sun Mar 10, 2019 7:08 pm

First sincere condolences to all the victims.

A thought also for the employees of Ethiopian Airlines. This is a great company with great people which totally deserves its success. During these times you always wonder what you have been doing wrong. The investigation will tell but I'm certain I will continue to trust this airline which is an example for all Africa.
Last edited by Aither on Sun Mar 10, 2019 7:13 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Never trust the obvious
 
KLDC10
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Sun Mar 10, 2019 7:13 pm

Mortyman wrote:
Some fairly big pieces of wreckage too ...

Image

Image

Image

Photo: Yidnek Kirubel, AP


Looks like plenty of crash-scene contamination going on there.
DC9/MD90/MD11/F70/BAE146
737/738/739/744/748/752/763/772/789
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RB211trent
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Sun Mar 10, 2019 7:14 pm

LTC8K6 wrote:
Galwayman wrote:
EU should ban immediately until Boeing provide convincing answers .

That makes no sense at all.

Yes it does, it makes perfect sense, carry on regardless and risk more deaths or ground the fleet until the risk is known.
 
YoungDon
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Sun Mar 10, 2019 7:14 pm

Varsity1 wrote:
So the first officer had 200 hours? This was probably his first flight flying a jet of any kind. I would suspect a loss of control.


That's definitely not the case, training programs in foreign countries start out with cadets with no time flown beginning on jets. He's definitely inexperienced, but it's entirely possible all of his flight time is in jets.

What will be interesting to know is the amount of time he had on the MAX.
 
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LaunchDetected
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Sun Mar 10, 2019 7:16 pm

I don’t know how i achieved to read 13 pages of overemotional drivel, but some factual posts were really interesting.

The Lion Air crash report has not even been released, we don’t have any proof of what caused this crash. There is for the moment no proof to link the two crashes together beside the aircraft type. Obviously, those planes were new, this a statistical anomaly to investigate.

But aviation is based on fact, and the whole safety management around it is working really well. I have total confidence and i’m waiting for the official, independant, reports, even if it takes months.
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planecane
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Sun Mar 10, 2019 7:19 pm

I'm not jumping to conclusions to blame this on mcas. However, I have read several times in this thread that the flaps wouldn't have been retracted yet.

That is probably true for the time that the FR24 data exists but aren't they usually retracted before 6 minutes? I'm not a pilot and never timed it but flaps retraction seems to happen pretty quickly when I fly.
 
LTC8K6
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Sun Mar 10, 2019 7:21 pm

RB211trent wrote:
LTC8K6 wrote:
Galwayman wrote:
EU should ban immediately until Boeing provide convincing answers .

That makes no sense at all.

Yes it does, it makes perfect sense, carry on regardless and risk more deaths or ground the fleet until the risk is known.


Ground the fleet for what reason?

What needs to be fixed?

Is this a 737 problem, or a 737Max problem, or what?

What planes are going to take up the slack? Are all 737 newer versions unsafe?

Do we just fix anything, or make a good guess, and return them to service, only to have crashes continue because we didn't fix the right thing?

Wonderful, now we've had more crashes, and we've lost faith in the safety organizations as well.
 
Interested
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Sun Mar 10, 2019 7:22 pm

LTC8K6 wrote:
Interested wrote:
LTC8K6 wrote:

Which problem on which flight?

I am unaware of any definite links.


We know that the Flight previous to the Lion flight that crashed was full of problems for the pilots. Which they had to deal with.

We've had 200,000 flights between the lion crash and this one yet we have the findings from the lion flight we have to wait for and the findings from this one we have to wait for

Two flights that needed 100s to die that MAY or MAY NOT suggest a potential .inherent problem

Why aren't we all over the other 200,000 flights AND flights prior to the Lion crash of the same planes to see how many more times there have been issues close to take off that haven't caused crashes but might have done? Why is it just these disasters we try to learn from? When it's too late?

I don't get the fact that we have to wait for the results of the Lion crash and the results of this one to figure out if there is a major problem with this plane. If there have been lots of issues for pilots to deal with let's find out and do something.

Surely we have live witness reports from 100s of other live pilots to figure out if something is not right with these planes?

Or do we only count crashes?


I don't find your line of thinking on the matter convincing.

When we know what the causes are, we can then make decisions, and not before.

If you fix the wrong thing, you will only have more crashes.


I'm a businessman. Im not involved in airlines in any way.

But it's pretty simple to me:

I've read there have been 375k approx flights on these planes
I've seen that the take off altitude and speed etc can be tracked
I know that every time this happens the flight nay or may not crash depending on many factors including pilot ability and training etc.

Isn't it a relatively inexpensive process (compared to a crash investigation at least) to check the flight tracking data of all these flights in these planes for similar anomalies to what people are seeing now and then figure out if the amount of times it's happened is acceptable or not?

And then decide if they need grounding or not? For any flight with suggested problems we've got pilots available to interview.

I simply don't get why all the focus and all the delay due to painstaking investigations into destroyed planes that take years and require many assumptions are what we face when making decisions rather than looking at issues in general that are probably similar but didn't end in disaster.

It's simple enough for me.

Maybe these planes need grounding. Maybe they don't. But why is the focus just on investigating the two crashes and waiting?

There will be stats to compare re problems on these planes compared to the planes they replaced. It should be easy to spot a pattern or a concern. Far cheaper and we aren't waiting for more people to die whilst we do it?
 
PaxPicti
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Sun Mar 10, 2019 7:23 pm

Statistics can be misleading. Concorde was the safest airliner in the world by passenger miles flown without a fatality, until July 25th 2000 - then it was revealed as inherently unsafe compared to most other types, and several similar incidents in the past should have been seen as warnings that were not heeded. At that point it was then the most dangerous airliner by proportion of examples made which had crashed.

There are twenty times more 737MAX in service than there ever were Concordes, but even so two crashes which initially appear to be similar within two years of the type EIS is worrying. I will admit to checking that the next flight I will be taking could be on a MAX - it won't be, the airline only has older versions. I feel happier about that.
Last edited by PaxPicti on Sun Mar 10, 2019 7:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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Gonzalo
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Sun Mar 10, 2019 7:25 pm

Very tragic events, and a real headache for the Boeing people right now, because, to be honest , 2 frames down in less than 6 months, with a big chance of the MCAS being the cause of the first crash ( or at least serious suspicions about that ), are not a good combination to sleep well tonight. This ET flight crashed 6 or 7 minutes into the flight, and everything points to a complete loss of control, I´ve seen pictures of the crash site and is a deep, not extended cráter, this aircraft came down like a rock and the crew was not able to even try to glide or make some sort of a controlled landing.
A few years back, shortly after EIS, when the batteries started to have problems, the 787 fleet was grounded with zero loss of life. I know my personal opinion has zero relevance for everyone, but two crashes with this level of catastrophic consequences for so many families, deserves a grounding of the 737 MAX family until some clues about the causes of this crashes are stablished.
I have no idea about how many 737 MAX are in service right now, and I feel sorry for the Airlines using the type and the problems that a grounding can cause to them, but I think a smoking cráter full of human remains is a much bigger and tragic problem to have.
Personally I will avoid the 737 MAX until this two events are clear, and if the aircraft type has nothing to do with this, I will be the first to say I was wrong, but seriously, two crashes in less than six months looks awful.

Rgds.
G.
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LTC8K6
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Sun Mar 10, 2019 7:25 pm

Interested wrote:
LTC8K6 wrote:
Interested wrote:

We know that the Flight previous to the Lion flight that crashed was full of problems for the pilots. Which they had to deal with.

We've had 200,000 flights between the lion crash and this one yet we have the findings from the lion flight we have to wait for and the findings from this one we have to wait for

Two flights that needed 100s to die that MAY or MAY NOT suggest a potential .inherent problem

Why aren't we all over the other 200,000 flights AND flights prior to the Lion crash of the same planes to see how many more times there have been issues close to take off that haven't caused crashes but might have done? Why is it just these disasters we try to learn from? When it's too late?

I don't get the fact that we have to wait for the results of the Lion crash and the results of this one to figure out if there is a major problem with this plane. If there have been lots of issues for pilots to deal with let's find out and do something.

Surely we have live witness reports from 100s of other live pilots to figure out if something is not right with these planes?

Or do we only count crashes?


I don't find your line of thinking on the matter convincing.

When we know what the causes are, we can then make decisions, and not before.

If you fix the wrong thing, you will only have more crashes.


I'm a businessman. Im not involved in airlines in any way.

But it's pretty simple to me:

I've read there have been 375k approx flights on these planes
I've seen that the take off altitude and speed etc can be tracked
I know that every time this happens the flight nay or may not crash depending on many factors including pilot ability and training etc.

Isn't it a relatively inexpensive process (compared to a crash investigation at least) to check the flight tracking data of all these flights in these planes for similar anomalies to what people are seeing now and then figure out if the amount of times it's happened is acceptable or not?

And then decide if they need grounding or not? For any flight with suggested problems we've got pilots available to interview.

I simply don't get why all the focus and all the delay due to painstaking investigations into destroyed planes that take years and require many assumptions are what we face when making decisions rather than looking at issues in general that are probably similar but didn't end in disaster.

It's simple enough for me.

Maybe these planes need grounding. Maybe they don't. But why is the focus just on investigating the two crashes and waiting?

There will be stats to compare re problems on these planes compared to the planes they replaced. It should be easy to spot a pattern or a concern. Far cheaper and we aren't waiting for more people to die whilst we do it?


Flight tracking data is neither accurate enough, nor reliable enough, to make determinations with.
It has led people astray on this and other boards.

You need FDR and CVR data before you can make an informed conclusion.
 
Interested
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Sun Mar 10, 2019 7:28 pm

You guys are mentioning statistics from two flights

I'm saying look at the statistics from 375k flights

Or do we think the only two flights with these planes that faced take off issues like this have both ended in total destruction?

Well I already know there's at least on more with the previous lion flight. Albeit may be the same problem just handled differently by the pilots.

So is it three takeoffs from 375k with these issues or do we have more to consider and weigh up?

I don't have the answers. But I'm just suggesting questions that should be asked. Maybe they've already been asked?

I just don't think waiting til the lion report is a good enough answer now there's been a similar crash. other flights with dodgy takeoffs Coukd be looked at with the same planes. With some urgency now
 
LTC8K6
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Sun Mar 10, 2019 7:29 pm

Gonzalo wrote:
Very tragic events, and a real headache for the Boeing people right now, because, to be honest , 2 frames down in less than 6 months, with a big chance of the MCAS being the cause of the first crash ( or at least serious suspicions about that ), are not a good combination to sleep well tonight. This ET flight crashed 6 or 7 minutes into the flight, and everything points to a complete loss of control, I´ve seen pictures of the crash site and is a deep, not extended cráter, this aircraft came down like a rock and the crew was not able to even try to glide or make some sort of a controlled landing.
A few years back, shortly after EIS, when the batteries started to have problems, the 787 fleet was grounded with zero loss of life. I know my personal opinion has zero relevance for everyone, but two crashes with this level of catastrophic consequences for so many families, deserves a grounding of the 737 MAX family until some clues about the causes of this crashes are stablished.
I have no idea about how many 737 MAX are in service right now, and I feel sorry for the Airlines using the type and the problems that a grounding can cause to them, but I think a smoking cráter full of human remains is a much bigger and tragic problem to have.
Personally I will avoid the 737 MAX until this two events are clear, and if the aircraft type has nothing to do with this, I will be the first to say I was wrong, but seriously, two crashes in less than six months looks awful.

Rgds.
G.


The 787 problem had been positively identified before any loss of life.
The causes and fixes were well known.

No problem with the 737Max has been identified regarding these crashes.
 
LTC8K6
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Sun Mar 10, 2019 7:29 pm

Interested wrote:
You guys are mentioning statistics from two flights

I'm saying look at the statistics from 375k flights

Or do we think the only two flights with these planes that faced take off issues like this have both ended in total destruction?

Well I already know there's at least on more with the previous lion flight. Albeit may be the same problem just handled differently by the pilots.

So is it three takeoffs from 375k with these issues or do we have more to consider and weigh up?

I don't have the answers. But I'm just suggesting questions that should be asked. Maybe they've already been asked?

I just don't think waiting til the lion report is a good enough answer now there's been a similar crash. other flights with dodgy takeoffs Coukd be looked at with the same planes. With some urgency now


Was an AoA sensor replaced on this flight?
 
afgeneral
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Sun Mar 10, 2019 7:30 pm

Gonzalo wrote:
I know my personal opinion has zero relevance for everyone, but two crashes with this level of catastrophic consequences for so many families, deserves a grounding of the 737 MAX family until some clues about the causes of this crashes are stablished


Your opinions have plenty relevance, it's just some people are in denial
 
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eastafspot
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Sun Mar 10, 2019 7:31 pm

factsonly wrote:
Ethiopian Airlines is currently giving more details of the passengers who were on board ET 302 that crashed on Sunday shortly after taking off from Bole International Airpoirt in Addis Ababa.

The numbers we have so far are:

32 passengers were Kenyan
18 Canada
9 Ethiopian
8 Chinese
8 Italian
8 US
7 British
7 France
6 Egypt
5 Netherlands
4 UN passport
4 Indian
3 Russian
2 Moroccan
2 Israeli
1 Belgian
1 Ugandan
1 Yemeni
1 Sudanese
1 Togo
1 Mozambican
1 Norwegian


Crew aside, it is interesting to see very few Ethiopian nationals onboard!
Fly with Air Burundi, Air Tanzania, Golden Wings Aviation, Kenya Airways, RwandAir and Uganda Airlines...Jumuiya ya Afrika mashariki !
 
Interested
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Sun Mar 10, 2019 7:31 pm

LTC8K6 wrote:
Interested wrote:
LTC8K6 wrote:

I don't find your line of thinking on the matter convincing.

When we know what the causes are, we can then make decisions, and not before.

If you fix the wrong thing, you will only have more crashes.


I'm a businessman. Im not involved in airlines in any way.

But it's pretty simple to me:

I've read there have been 375k approx flights on these planes
I've seen that the take off altitude and speed etc can be tracked
I know that every time this happens the flight nay or may not crash depending on many factors including pilot ability and training etc.

Isn't it a relatively inexpensive process (compared to a crash investigation at least) to check the flight tracking data of all these flights in these planes for similar anomalies to what people are seeing now and then figure out if the amount of times it's happened is acceptable or not?

And then decide if they need grounding or not? For any flight with suggested problems we've got pilots available to interview.

I simply don't get why all the focus and all the delay due to painstaking investigations into destroyed planes that take years and require many assumptions are what we face when making decisions rather than looking at issues in general that are probably similar but didn't end in disaster.

It's simple enough for me.

Maybe these planes need grounding. Maybe they don't. But why is the focus just on investigating the two crashes and waiting?

There will be stats to compare re problems on these planes compared to the planes they replaced. It should be easy to spot a pattern or a concern. Far cheaper and we aren't waiting for more people to die whilst we do it?


Flight tracking data is neither accurate enough, nor reliable enough, to make determinations with.
It has led people astray on this and other boards.

You need FDR and CVR data before you can make an informed conclusion.


Of course you do. Does it get destroyed after every successful flight then?

Use the flight tracking date to establish every flight to investigate that didn't crash.
Get the FDR and CVR data
And interview the pilots

Simple enough process IMO

What am I missing?

Let's not forget many say the lion plane wouldn't have crashed with better action from the pilots

So how many more are there in the 375k like that with better pilots etc?
 
Aither
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Sun Mar 10, 2019 7:33 pm

Going through the thread It seems the Max is an unstable plane with a fix which is just a software fix. Am I correct ? is it the only popular commercial plane like this ?
We don't know the reasons for the crashes but one thing is ceertain, I hate the idea of being on an unstable flying machine with my life depending on a piece of IT code. Software always experience a bug at some point. It happens every day on aircraft but you can always navigate while you do a "reset" of the system. If it's not the case for the Max, I believe this would be a fundamental design flaw. But maybe I'm totally wrong on this.
Never trust the obvious
 
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ikolkyo
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Sun Mar 10, 2019 7:33 pm

Holy smokes did I get flamed, goodness it was honest mistake. I wasn’t aware the aircraft kept going as I though FR24 data didn’t take into account elevation but it seems it does show AGL. I think it’s safe to assume it’s best to wait and see what preliminary findings come out of this
 
LTC8K6
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Sun Mar 10, 2019 7:37 pm

I can't stand the ridiculous comments any more.

I see why so many good people have left.

Hopefully the cause of the crash is given to us after a proper investigation.

RIP to the victims.
 
estorilm
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Sun Mar 10, 2019 7:39 pm

afgeneral wrote:
Gonzalo wrote:
I know my personal opinion has zero relevance for everyone, but two crashes with this level of catastrophic consequences for so many families, deserves a grounding of the 737 MAX family until some clues about the causes of this crashes are stablished


Your opinions have plenty relevance, it's just some people are in denial

You at least need a little bit more information though - for example if a 767-300F crashed tomorrow (but let's say you and I knew it was pilot suicide or a hijacking, etc) everyone would immediately want to ground the plane (just for the sake of argument, even though it's a much older type). In reality, the two crashes had nothing to do with each other.

I'm not saying they have nothing in common, just showing that authorities need tangible evidence that a specific aspect of the plane (not just the "whole darn thing") it unsafe. They need to be able to point to something and say "fix this" or "this is the problem" - or at least have an area prime for inspection during grounding. This is how ALL prior groundings have taken place before; there's a specific threat, or a specific item/area to be inspected.

We don't have that (yet) with the MAX8.
 
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AirlineCritic
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Sun Mar 10, 2019 7:41 pm

First, I would like to thank OEMInsider for the best and perhaps sole analysis contribution to this thread. Well done, thank you!!!!!

Secondly, while you all may of course have any opinion about what to do based on accidents -- be it grounding, not grounding, or thinking about it, please, please READ THE THREAD or at least SOME posts before you post something. Well justified thoughts are a pleasure to read, even if they may not match what I was thinking. But aggressive argumentation based on your own misconceptions that could have been corrected by reading a bit of what others have said is very tiresome. For instance, many posters have argued one way or other about altitude, without realising that we most likely have incomplete data. FR24 data end is not the end of the flight. We do not know how high or what speed the aircraft had during the later flight, except perhaps circumstantial evidence about high speed and angle in the end. Many people have also posted strong opinions about flaps and speeds and warnings; I'd suggest that the matter is complicated, both by equipment (see the Spanair crash for instance) and timing of various events. Again, we don't know what the crew did at what phase of flight. Don't base your analysis on the fragment of data we have from FR24, or consider just one datapoint but not another. And finally, if you are comparing to the JT610 accident, please considered all the detail that may matter, e.g., MCAS *and* stick shakers.

Thank you.
 
maui19
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Sun Mar 10, 2019 7:41 pm

FR24's blog (https://www.flightradar24.com/blog/flig ... light-302/) is really interesting. The AC appeared to have no problem gaining speed, but plenty of trouble gaining altitude. Every time they started to climb, they would quickly level off or descend (I think this happened 5 times). Finally they were able to achieve a fairly constant rate of climb (2,900 FPM?) before the flight data ended. Given that they were approaching higher terrain surrounding the airport (and "long" nature of the impact crater shown in the earlier picture of the crash site), I think it is entirely plausible that this is a recurrence of the MCAS problem, which prevented them from gaining enough altitude to get over the high terrain.

Of course, it could be a bunch of other things as well, but to me these pieces fit.

Just a very sad event.
 
OEMInsider
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Sun Mar 10, 2019 7:41 pm

Aither wrote:
Going through the thread It seems the Max is an unstable plane with a fix which is just a software fix. Am I correct ? is it the only popular commercial plane like this ?
We don't know the reasons for the crashes but one thing is ceertain, I hate the idea of being on an unstable flying machine with my life depending on a piece of IT code. Software always experience a bug at some point. It happens every day on aircraft but you can always navigate while you do a "reset" of the system. If it's not the case for the Max, I believe this would be a fundamental design flaw. But maybe I'm totally wrong on this.


Not even close, several aircraft would be considered somewhat unstable if you turned all the systems off (technically called marginal stability). Phugoid instability is the most common, I think the A340 suffers from Dutch roll if you turn the computers off. Its not necessarily a big deal, you just need to be able to demonstrate that the overall system is safe.

For the 737MAX, there is an instability at high angles of attack due to the engines being forward of the centre of lift & centre of gravity. MCAS is designed to stop the aircraft getting into the part of the flight envelope where this could become a problem. MCAS itself is no different to the kind of software every single Airbus since the A320 uses. The only potential issue is in its specific implementation, and communication to pilots.
 
ubeema
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Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Sun Mar 10, 2019 7:42 pm

Just opened a separate thread for those who wish to debate grounding at length.

Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series
https://r.tapatalk.com/shareLink?share_ ... are_type=t
Last edited by ubeema on Sun Mar 10, 2019 7:42 pm, edited 2 times in total.
 
axiom
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Sun Mar 10, 2019 7:44 pm

First: thoughts are with the families of those lost.

Second: this thread is the apotheosis of the rabidly anti-intellectual post-truth world we live in. How about we wait for some — nay, any — facts? FFS.
 
tomcat
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Sun Mar 10, 2019 7:46 pm

planecane wrote:
I'm not jumping to conclusions to blame this on mcas. However, I have read several times in this thread that the flaps wouldn't have been retracted yet.

That is probably true for the time that the FR24 data exists but aren't they usually retracted before 6 minutes? I'm not a pilot and never timed it but flaps retraction seems to happen pretty quickly when I fly.


The retraction of the flaps is mainly related to the airspeed. The last data recorded by FR24 shows a ground speed in excess of 380 kts (and it was still a head wind component, since it was still flying in the same heading as it had taken off). Even considering the 8500 ft altitude, the flaps must have been retracted by the time FR24 got recorded its last data point. It would actually be a problem if the flaps wouldn't be retracted at such a speed. Someone more knowledgeable than me on the 737 flight envelope could also elaborate on the speed limit at that altitude. I find 380 kts fairly high for that altitude, and frankly hazardous with respect to the height above ground (less than 2000 ft). It seems like the power setting remained at a high setting longer than required.
 
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PA110
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Sun Mar 10, 2019 7:46 pm

A320FlyGuy wrote:
No....it is unstable because the weight and balance characteristics have been altered by the larger and heavier LEAP engines. Boeing has tried to use software that is either poorly executed or poorly documented or poorly communicated or all of the above. Relaxed stability is fine in military aircraft...but this aircraft is carrying thousands of passengers every day. It should be designed to be stable and not have any “gotcha” features.

Boeing was forced into the 737MAX due to the A320neo...and while the A320 platform had and still has considerable growth potential, the 737 is old. You can put makeup on a pig but it’s still a pig. If the handling of the 737MAX is so different that Boeing had to create software to make it feel the same as the NG just to get it on the same type Certificate, that says something right there about the stability and handling of the aircraft right out of the box.

From the link you posted:

Handling

The thrust line has changed from the NG because the engines had to be moved forward and up to accomodate the larger fan diameter. Any handling differences as a result of this have been tuned out by Boeing in the flight control system to make the types feel the same to crew. This was necessary for certification under the same type certificate.

Is there a language comprehension problem here? What part of ANY of the above implies instability? It sounds like you're trying to conflate "handling differences" with "instability". MCAS was introduced to narrow differences in handling to common type certificate. My brother flies the 737Max several times a week. There is nothing inherently unstable about the aircraft. You are leaping to utterly unfounded conclusions.
It's been swell, but the swelling has gone down.
 
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Aesma
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Sun Mar 10, 2019 7:48 pm

The security on that crash scene seems awful. I hope nobody will try and get a flight recorder as a souvenir.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
Aither
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Sun Mar 10, 2019 7:49 pm

OEMInsider wrote:
Aither wrote:


Not even close,................
...... .


Thank you for these explanations
Never trust the obvious
 
seat1a
Posts: 481
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Sun Mar 10, 2019 7:50 pm

The 787 was grounded for far less when issue with the batteries came to light. Airlines should consider a pause of MAX flights.
 
Amsterdam
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Sun Mar 10, 2019 7:51 pm

estorilm wrote:
Amsterdam wrote:
estorilm wrote:
I was thinking that as I was typing :lol: - wouldn't the aircraft have to be trimmed the same way regardless though? Otherwise you'd disable AP and MCAS would suddenly start playing with the trim? Seems weird. I guess in the situations where MCAS would enable, your AP would disconnect. :confused:


No thread for laughing smileys dude
Im no saint myself, but for lol this is not the place

Excuse me? I was talking about the operation of flight control systems, and laughing (at myself) because I referenced something I thought may have been incorrect at the time. Has absolutely nothing to do with the loss of life in this crash.

Please learn the context before you try to randomly call someone out for no reason.


Ok my friend
Still..
 
questions
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Sun Mar 10, 2019 7:53 pm

A320FlyGuy wrote:
PA110 wrote:
afgeneral wrote:
This is getting ridiculous, you don't have to be an aerospace engineer, 737 MAX maintenance worker, 737 MAX pilot or instructor, Boeing design engineer, FAA executive or whatever in order to have a valid opinion on this topic...

...we know they are a bit unstable by design


What on earth has led you to this conclusion? This is PRECISELY why a layperson's (lack of) understanding is so critically flawed. You can have all the opinions you want, but that doesn't make them correct.

The aircraft is not unstable by design. It's simply different. MCAS was introduced to narrow handling differences so that pilots could share type rating between NG and MAX.

Here is a good reference between the differences can be found HERE, written by an actual 737 training pilot


No....it is unstable because the weight and balance characteristics have been altered by the larger and heavier LEAP engines. Boeing has tried to use software that is either poorly executed or poorly documented or poorly communicated or all of the above. Relaxed stability is fine in military aircraft...but this aircraft is carrying thousands of passengers every day. It should be designed to be stable and not have any “gotcha” features.

Boeing was forced into the 737MAX due to the A320neo...and while the A320 platform had and still has considerable growth potential, the 737 is old. You can put makeup on a pig but it’s still a pig. If the handling of the 737MAX is so different that Boeing had to create software to make it feel the same as the NG just to get it on the same type Certificate, that says something right there about the stability and handling of the aircraft right out of the box.

From the link you posted:

Handling

The thrust line has changed from the NG because the engines had to be moved forward and up to accomodate the larger fan diameter. Any handling differences as a result of this have been tuned out by Boeing in the flight control system to make the types feel the same to crew. This was necessary for certification under the same type certificate.


To what degree is any of this true, i.e., that the 737 has reached or gone beyond its design limitations?

Hasn’t the 737 design been altered so many times — e.g., wing, tail, technology systems — that it’s basically a different aircraft from the original?

In simplistic terms, it sounds like the LEAP engine is too much for this aircraft vs the aircraft being a “pig.” Is this a vast overstatement?

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