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janders
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Re: OAG Changes 3/10/2019:Y4 New Routes;WN HNL-KOA/OGG;VC Trims;ET Adds ABJ-IAD;DL Ends DTW-GRU

Sun Mar 10, 2019 9:40 pm

Its clear DTW-GRU has been a weak performer for some time now.

Remember DL made the route season, and only brought it back 3x weekly during northern winter peak and is scheduled to end March 29th anyhow.

So now just looks they decided the route does not even perform seasonally, so no point to bring it back. Hardly a big loss in the grand scheme of things.
"We make war that we may live in peace." -- Aristotle
 
Aliqiout
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Re: OAG Changes 3/10/2019:Y4 New Routes;WN HNL-KOA/OGG;VC Trims;ET Adds ABJ-IAD;DL Ends DTW-GRU

Sun Mar 10, 2019 10:04 pm

Y4 is swapping ABQ-GDL for ABQ-CUU? How many times has ABQ/ELP-CUU been tried ? What do airlines see in this market that doesnt materialize? There certainly are ties between the cities, but driving, buses, service from CJS, and train (not anymore) seem to be to much to compete against.
 
BenflysDTW
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Re: OAG Changes 3/10/2019:Y4 New Routes;WN HNL-KOA/OGG;VC Trims;ET Adds ABJ-IAD;DL Ends DTW-GRU

Mon Mar 11, 2019 1:15 am

N649DL wrote:
klm617 wrote:
Another big hit for Detroit losing GRU. At this point anything Delta adds at Detroit is pretty much meaningless are far as growth goes because every add gets washed away by an equal cancelation or reduction in service.


I recall that DTW-GRU was launched during the recession for the big 3 automakers and other corporate contracts. Perhaps a few dropped since then and affect yield on the route.

It started shortly after, on October 21st 2010 with x2 weekly service: https://news.delta.com/delta-launches-n ... -sao-paulo
 
VictorKilo
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Re: OAG Changes 3/10/2019:Y4 New Routes;WN HNL-KOA/OGG;VC Trims;ET Adds ABJ-IAD;DL Ends DTW-GRU

Mon Mar 11, 2019 3:17 am

It would not surprise me if the DTW-GRU move is a seasonal suspension for Nov/Dec or a transition to seasonal service. Even many of the DTW-Asia flights historically have not operated around the holiday periods, so it would not surprise me for DL just to decide to suspend the flight during this period.
 
clrd4t8koff
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Re: OAG Changes 3/10/2019:Y4 New Routes;WN HNL-KOA/OGG;VC Trims;ET Adds ABJ-IAD;DL Ends DTW-GRU

Mon Mar 11, 2019 3:24 am

VictorKilo wrote:
It would not surprise me if the DTW-GRU move is a seasonal suspension for Nov/Dec or a transition to seasonal service. Even many of the DTW-Asia flights historically have not operated around the holiday periods, so it would not surprise me for DL just to decide to suspend the flight during this period.


I was trying to find flights for DTW-GRU in Sept or Oct and don't see any. When does the service end?
 
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knope2001
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Re: OAG Changes 3/10/2019:Y4 New Routes;WN HNL-KOA/OGG;VC Trims;ET Adds ABJ-IAD;DL Ends DTW-GRU

Mon Mar 11, 2019 3:28 am

Aliqiout wrote:
Y4 is swapping ABQ-GDL for ABQ-CUU? How many times has ABQ/ELP-CUU been tried ? What do airlines see in this market that doesnt materialize? There certainly are ties between the cities, but driving, buses, service from CJS, and train (not anymore) seem to be to much to compete against.


Doesn't seem ABQ-GDL has been catching on. Using ABQ airport stats it appears they've been putting about 50 people per flight in November, December and January assuming they operated the 2x/week schedule they published. That's not a certainty -- the three most recent flights (3/2, 3/4, 3/9) do not appear to have operated. Maybe they've pared the schedule back, but it looks like ABQ-GDL is getting the ax in favor of CUU.

Anybody know if perhaps there might be a stronger tie to the Chihuahua area rather than Jalisco (Guadalajara) for VFR (vision friends and relatives) traffic? That would seem to be the only way CUU would work better. But CUU is much closer -- an easy day's drive from Albuquerque versus more like 21 hours to Guadalajara -- so even if there is a whole lot more VFR traffic to CUU it may be tough to compete against the road.
 
UALifer
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Re: OAG Changes 3/10/2019:Y4 New Routes;WN HNL-KOA/OGG;VC Trims;ET Adds ABJ-IAD;DL Ends DTW-GRU

Mon Mar 11, 2019 3:39 am

VictorKilo wrote:
It would not surprise me if the DTW-GRU move is a seasonal suspension for Nov/Dec or a transition to seasonal service. Even many of the DTW-Asia flights historically have not operated around the holiday periods, so it would not surprise me for DL just to decide to suspend the flight during this period.


The flight was already seasonal. They had already previously removed the northern summer season (Apr-Oct 2019). Unless you’re suggesting they’ll only be flying the route Jan-Mar, this appears to be a full exit.
 
PHLspecial
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Re: OAG Changes 3/10/2019:Y4 New Routes;WN HNL-KOA/OGG;VC Trims;ET Adds ABJ-IAD;DL Ends DTW-GRU

Mon Mar 11, 2019 3:54 am

Bigant0408 wrote:
PHLspecial wrote:
Bigant0408 wrote:
Always look forward to your Sunday post. I know it takes a lot of effort to collect this data. I see delta going almost 2X daily on PHL-SLC route which I assume is because AA quietly ended there seasonal route as I can’t find any bookings for non stop on AA website. Good for Delta


I thought Delta would have dropped this route because of AA strong hold on PHL. Happy to see Delta holding on against AA.


I thought so too. But IMO the AA route was a early morning departure at like 6:30am so probably hard to gain connections that way. But overall good Delta taking advantage of a dropped out just like LH on Frankfurt


Good to see Delta routes are doing well enough like the SLC and BOS.

More serious one is if LH would start the PHL-MUC route next year even seasonally if they had to. That would be a big slap to the face for AA
 
WN732
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Re: OAG Changes 3/10/2019:Y4 New Routes;WN HNL-KOA/OGG;VC Trims;ET Adds ABJ-IAD;DL Ends DTW-GRU

Mon Mar 11, 2019 4:07 am

FATFlyer wrote:
enilria wrote:
AA FAT-LAX JUN 4>3[4]
AA FAT-PHX JUN 6>5[5]

UA DEN-FAT JUL 4>3[4]

FAT-PHX is gaining an A319 but reducing RJ frequency.
FAT-DEN may be due to FAT-ORD going mainline.

enilria wrote:
AM FAT-GDL DEC 0.7>0.9[0.9]

*Y4 BJX-FAT NOV 0>0.3[0] DEC 0>0.3[0]
Y4 FAT-GDL JUL 1.0>1.5[1.0] AUG 1.0>1.3[0.9] NOV 0>1.0[0.9] DEC 0>1.0[1.4]
Y4 FAT-MLM NOV 0>0.4[0.3] DEC 0>0.5[0.3]

FAT-BJX is new, it has been discussed as a rumor on the Fresno Aviation thread.

The small FAT FIS facility is going to be busy and crowded for the next few years with all of that international service. The new FIS cannot be built soon enough.


Always exciting to see more mainline here at FAT. And even more Mexico flights.
 
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KLMatSJC
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Re: OAG Changes 3/10/2019:Y4 New Routes;WN HNL-KOA/OGG;VC Trims;ET Adds ABJ-IAD;DL Ends DTW-GRU

Mon Mar 11, 2019 4:10 am

enilria wrote:
*HA HNL-SFO OCT 1.0>1.5[1.0] NOV 1.0>2[1.0] DEC 1.0>2[1.4]
HA OGG-SFO OCT 0.8>1.0[1.0]


The extra HNL flight is with an A321. The OGG flight also gets downgraded to an A321.
A318/19/20/21/21N A332/3 A343/5 A388 B712 B722 B732/3/4/7/8/9/9ER B744/4M B752/3 B762ER/3/3ER/4ER B77E/L/W B788 CRJ2/7/9 Q400 EMB-120 ERJ-135/140/145/145XR/175 DC-10-10 MD-82/83/88/90

Long Live the Tulip, Cactus, and Redwood
 
ericm2031
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Re: OAG Changes 3/10/2019:Y4 New Routes;WN HNL-KOA/OGG;VC Trims;ET Adds ABJ-IAD;DL Ends DTW-GRU

Mon Mar 11, 2019 4:40 am

enilria wrote:
AA PHX-SBA JUN 5>4[5]


Similar to FAT with a frequency reduction, but a mainline addition (only showing for 1 month currently). This will be the first mainline for SBA-PHX
 
Planeboy17
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Re: OAG Changes 3/10/2019:Y4 New Routes;WN HNL-KOA/OGG;VC Trims;ET Adds ABJ-IAD;DL Ends DTW-GRU

Mon Mar 11, 2019 5:07 am

MIAFLLPBIFlyer wrote:
Jo8338 wrote:
jplatts wrote:

AA has a hub at MIA, and AA already has 8 daily nonstops to MIA from ORD. AA also has nonstop service to MIA but not to FLL from its LAX and PHX hubs.

Understood but most people that live in Broward and Palm Beach County don’t want to go to MIA.


AA's continued FLL cuts either mean FF members have to drive to Miami or will just seek other options. If someone in southern Palm Beach or northern Broward isn't an AA frequent flier, they can fly UA to ORD and not shed a tear. But I believe AA's FF base is large enough that they might be making a mistake cutting FLL to a bare bone spoke as has happened since the merger.

Or B6 and NK. It’s just odd to see AA cut this route so much. It has always been reduced in the summer but I think in winter it has been as much as 5 a day and I think was the only nonstop service when UA pulled out of South Florida just before the merger?
And my thanks to you Enilria! Certainly my favorite thread!
 
jagraham
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Re: OAG Changes 3/10/2019:Y4 New Routes;WN HNL-KOA/OGG;VC Trims;ET Adds ABJ-IAD;DL Ends DTW-GRU

Mon Mar 11, 2019 7:01 am

Scarebus34 wrote:
AA continues to trim JFK. What a sad state of affairs compared to what it used to be.


JFK-CLT went up by 1. It's not all trims.
 
C010T3
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Re: OAG Changes 3/10/2019:Y4 New Routes;WN HNL-KOA/OGG;VC Trims;ET Adds ABJ-IAD;DL Ends DTW-GRU

Mon Mar 11, 2019 9:16 am

VictorKilo wrote:
It would not surprise me if the DTW-GRU move is a seasonal suspension for Nov/Dec or a transition to seasonal service. Even many of the DTW-Asia flights historically have not operated around the holiday periods, so it would not surprise me for DL just to decide to suspend the flight during this period.


clrd4t8koff wrote:
I was trying to find flights for DTW-GRU in Sept or Oct and don't see any. When does the service end?


Well, Delta had already announced back in December that the flight would not be operated during S19, because it was going seasonal. The flight was scheduled to come back in W19/20. Now, not even that, so I believe the flight ends this month.

https://m.panrotas.com.br/aviacao/empre ... tar/160665
 
MIAFLLPBIFlyer
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Re: OAG Changes 3/10/2019:Y4 New Routes;WN HNL-KOA/OGG;VC Trims;ET Adds ABJ-IAD;DL Ends DTW-GRU

Mon Mar 11, 2019 11:42 am

Planeboy17 wrote:
MIAFLLPBIFlyer wrote:
Jo8338 wrote:
Understood but most people that live in Broward and Palm Beach County don’t want to go to MIA.


AA's continued FLL cuts either mean FF members have to drive to Miami or will just seek other options. If someone in southern Palm Beach or northern Broward isn't an AA frequent flier, they can fly UA to ORD and not shed a tear. But I believe AA's FF base is large enough that they might be making a mistake cutting FLL to a bare bone spoke as has happened since the merger.

Or B6 and NK. It’s just odd to see AA cut this route so much. It has always been reduced in the summer but I think in winter it has been as much as 5 a day and I think was the only nonstop service when UA pulled out of South Florida just before the merger?
And my thanks to you Enilria! Certainly my favorite thread!


Yes during the period NK pulled out of FLL, NK only flew the route once a day. So AA dominated though of course WN to MDW has always had fliers. FYI, as an aside FLL was UA's first Florida nonstop destination from ORD. Pre-deregulation UA didn't have the route authority to fly ORD-Florida and did so from CLE, ROC and ATL. FLL actually became UA's first ORD-Florida route right after deregulation I believe.
 
lowfareair
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Re: OAG Changes 3/10/2019:Y4 New Routes;WN HNL-KOA/OGG;VC Trims;ET Adds ABJ-IAD;DL Ends DTW-GRU

Mon Mar 11, 2019 1:24 pm

Gary Leff posted about the AA JFK reductions, and even though he seems to be using the same data that enilria has (including the same methods of rounding), he decided not to cite his source...

https://viewfromthewing.boardingarea.co ... is-summer/
 
jetbluefan1
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Re: OAG Changes 3/10/2019:Y4 New Routes;WN HNL-KOA/OGG;VC Trims;ET Adds ABJ-IAD;DL Ends DTW-GRU

Mon Mar 11, 2019 2:21 pm

Thanks as always enilria!

enilria wrote:
AA BOS-JFK JUN 5>0.8[5] JUL 5>4[5]

*AA FLL-ORD JUN 1.0>0.2[2]
AA GYE-MIA JUN 2>1.3[2]

AA JFK-LAS JUN 3>1.6[3]


B6 will be pleased with these year-over-year reductions - especially FLL-ORD, which is possibly B6's worst performing route from FLL. It's interesting to see AA cut capacity to GYE - from what I understand, this is off to a very strong start for B6 from FLL.

enilria wrote:
B6 BGI-FLL JUN 1.0>0.8[1.0] JUL 1.0>0.5[1.0] AUG 1.0>0.6[1.0] SEP 1.0>0.6[1.0] OCT 0.8>0.5[1.0]
B6 BGI-JFK JUL 2>1.7[2] OCT 1.8>1.4[1.7]


I'm somewhat surprised to see JFK-BGI get trimmed, as this market regularly seeing All-Core A321's and a lot of Mint capacity during peak season. Perhaps Q3 is just too soft.

FLL-BGI reduction is also somewhat surprising, as B6 has a monopoly on this route. B6 recently cut its Q1 RASM outlook and specifically cited "off peak pressure from competitive capacity in Florida to Caribbean markets" as a source of weakness (for the full context see the SEC filing linked below). It seems that FLL-BGI is a separate case, and maybe they are referring to markets where they overlap with NK (and WN to a lesser extent). AA flies this 3x from MIA so I would assume there is a decent amount of demand...perhaps the VFR traffic is located much closer to MIA than FLL.

http://otp.investis.com/clients/us/jetb ... ndex=10000

enilria wrote:
UA LAX-MCO SEP 2>1.0[1.8]


Some more capacity relief in this low yielding market will surely be appreciated by B6 (and DL/AA)....I don't think anyone is making money here.
 
N649DL
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Re: OAG Changes 3/10/2019:Y4 New Routes;WN HNL-KOA/OGG;VC Trims;ET Adds ABJ-IAD;DL Ends DTW-GRU

Mon Mar 11, 2019 4:50 pm

BenflysDTW wrote:
N649DL wrote:
klm617 wrote:
Another big hit for Detroit losing GRU. At this point anything Delta adds at Detroit is pretty much meaningless are far as growth goes because every add gets washed away by an equal cancelation or reduction in service.


I recall that DTW-GRU was launched during the recession for the big 3 automakers and other corporate contracts. Perhaps a few dropped since then and affect yield on the route.

It started shortly after, on October 21st 2010 with x2 weekly service: https://news.delta.com/delta-launches-n ... -sao-paulo


Right, but I still consider October 2010 "during the recession."
 
Brickell305
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Re: OAG Changes 3/10/2019:Y4 New Routes;WN HNL-KOA/OGG;VC Trims;ET Adds ABJ-IAD;DL Ends DTW-GRU

Mon Mar 11, 2019 5:39 pm

enilria wrote:
B6 BGI-FLL JUN 1.0>0.8[1.0] JUL 1.0>0.5[1.0] AUG 1.0>0.6[1.0] SEP 1.0>0.6[1.0] OCT 0.8>0.5[1.0]
B6 BGI-JFK JUL 2>1.7[2] OCT 1.8>1.4[1.7]

Interesting that now AA is re-adding capacity to the island, we see a retreat from B6. I guess AA still has some muscle in Barbados and B6 is feeling it.
 
ScottB
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Re: OAG Changes 3/10/2019:Y4 New Routes;WN HNL-KOA/OGG;VC Trims;ET Adds ABJ-IAD;DL Ends DTW-GRU

Mon Mar 11, 2019 5:45 pm

lowfareair wrote:
Gary Leff posted about the AA JFK reductions, and even though he seems to be using the same data that enilria has (including the same methods of rounding), he decided not to cite his source...


Yup it definitely looks like this thread is the source since it also contains the last-year service patterns as well. But he does make an excellent point: Continuing to trim service at JFK makes AA less competitive against the other players in NYC (DL, UA, B6) and IMO will ultimately have a knock-on effect on their position at LGA. If NYC-based frequent flyers can't count on convenient (or any) non-stop service to beyond-perimeter markets from JFK on AA, they're probably going to move their business to DL/UA/B6, and that's going to reduce demand in non-hub markets from LGA as well. AA runs markets like LGA-ATL/CVG/DTW/MSP/YUL/YYZ to cater to the NYC O&D; losing more frequent flyers to Delta will make those markets less viable along with all the non-hub markets from NYC where DL, UA, B6, or even WN offer better service.

Back when US had the largest slot portfolio at LGA to go along with the nicest terminal, they were horribly misusing those resources and losing money hand-over-fist. Running cheap connections over LGA from markets with virtually zero O&D like ITH, ALB, PVD, HYA, etc. was dumb. Squatting on slots with 25x daily LGA-PHL was dumb. The turboprops upon which they relied heavily were unpopular. DoUgIe's trade with DL for DCA slots made a lot of sense at the time because US didn't have the resources (money, aircraft, slots and gates at JFK or EWR) to become relevant to many NYC-based business travelers and it allowed them to build presence in a market where they were already the leading carrier.

The problem is that this of course was a poor choice in light of the subsequent merger between US and AA. DL moved aggressively to serve more relevant markets from LGA and even though the split LGA/JFK operation isn't ideal for connectivity, it's still workable for New Yorkers. With AA de-emphasizing JFK transatlantic in favor of PHL (which is a perfectly logical choice given their strength at PHL), it seems that AA may ultimately be relegated to being perpetually 4th or 5th in NYC market share.
 
Brickell305
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Re: OAG Changes 3/10/2019:Y4 New Routes;WN HNL-KOA/OGG;VC Trims;ET Adds ABJ-IAD;DL Ends DTW-GRU

Mon Mar 11, 2019 6:04 pm

jetbluefan1 wrote:

enilria wrote:
B6 BGI-FLL JUN 1.0>0.8[1.0] JUL 1.0>0.5[1.0] AUG 1.0>0.6[1.0] SEP 1.0>0.6[1.0] OCT 0.8>0.5[1.0]
B6 BGI-JFK JUL 2>1.7[2] OCT 1.8>1.4[1.7]


I'm somewhat surprised to see JFK-BGI get trimmed, as this market regularly seeing All-Core A321's and a lot of Mint capacity during peak season. Perhaps Q3 is just too soft.

FLL-BGI reduction is also somewhat surprising, as B6 has a monopoly on this route. B6 recently cut its Q1 RASM outlook and specifically cited "off peak pressure from competitive capacity in Florida to Caribbean markets" as a source of weakness (for the full context see the SEC filing linked below). It seems that FLL-BGI is a separate case, and maybe they are referring to markets where they overlap with NK (and WN to a lesser extent). AA flies this 3x from MIA so I would assume there is a decent amount of demand...perhaps the VFR traffic is located much closer to MIA than FLL.

http://otp.investis.com/clients/us/jetb ... ndex=10000

Re FLL/MIA-BGI, most of the VFR is in the Broward area similar to the VFR traffic for KIN and POS (and most English speaking Caribbean destinations). The main main difference here is that BGI is a lot less VFR oriented from So. Fla. It’s much more vacation/tourism oriented and the clientele tends to be a bit more upscale than say NAS or MBJ and as such, AA with its larger frequent flyer base and bigger hub would tend to do better out of So. Fla despite the VFR being closer to FLL.
 
tphuang
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Re: OAG Changes 3/10/2019:Y4 New Routes;WN HNL-KOA/OGG;VC Trims;ET Adds ABJ-IAD;DL Ends DTW-GRU

Mon Mar 11, 2019 6:23 pm

I wonder if all these AA cuts are related to the upcoming earnings call. Maybe Q1 results are not good, so they need to cut back. At this rate, AA will have dehubbed JFK by the time BA moves into T8. The big question is what will happen to those slots. AA would cut even more right now if they didn't have to do slot squatting.
 
Aliqiout
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Re: OAG Changes 3/10/2019:Y4 New Routes;WN HNL-KOA/OGG;VC Trims;ET Adds ABJ-IAD;DL Ends DTW-GRU

Mon Mar 11, 2019 6:56 pm

knope2001 wrote:
Aliqiout wrote:
Y4 is swapping ABQ-GDL for ABQ-CUU? How many times has ABQ/ELP-CUU been tried ? What do airlines see in this market that doesnt materialize? There certainly are ties between the cities, but driving, buses, service from CJS, and train (not anymore) seem to be to much to compete against.


Doesn't seem ABQ-GDL has been catching on. Using ABQ airport stats it appears they've been putting about 50 people per flight in November, December and January assuming they operated the 2x/week schedule they published. That's not a certainty -- the three most recent flights (3/2, 3/4, 3/9) do not appear to have operated. Maybe they've pared the schedule back, but it looks like ABQ-GDL is getting the ax in favor of CUU.

Anybody know if perhaps there might be a stronger tie to the Chihuahua area rather than Jalisco (Guadalajara) for VFR (vision friends and relatives) traffic? That would seem to be the only way CUU would work better. But CUU is much closer -- an easy day's drive from Albuquerque versus more like 21 hours to Guadalajara -- so even if there is a whole lot more VFR traffic to CUU it may be tough to compete against the road.


Yes there is a stronger connection between ABQ and CUU then GDL, but CUU has has much less tourism, and while I would not call it an easy day's drive, it certainly will have more driving competition. Also I am not very familiar with Y4's CUU operation, but I would imagine that connections would be much more limited than at GDL.
 
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N717TW
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Re: OAG Changes 3/10/2019:Y4 New Routes;WN HNL-KOA/OGG;VC Trims;ET Adds ABJ-IAD;DL Ends DTW-GRU

Mon Mar 11, 2019 7:19 pm

303dk wrote:
bluefltspecial wrote:
enilria wrote:
]
AA JFK-LAS JUN 3>1.6[3]
AA JFK-ORD JUN 1.3>2[1.0]
AA JFK-ORF JUN 1.8>1.0[2]
AA JFK-RDU JUN 4>3[4]
AA JFK-SAN JUN 3>2[1.8]
AA JFK-SEA JUN 3>2[1.8]
AA JFK-YUL JUN 1.8>1.0[2]


As has been mentioned by others, this is another chop to JFK which we've continued to see.
My question is, what happens to those slots. Is it use them or lose them, or is there a timeline on it?
They just announced an expansion so BA and a few others can move in... seems odd, no?


If you do some dummy bookings, you'll see that AA commands higher fares for a one stop to LGA vs a nonstop to JFK. They're chasing the $


Please let me know if I am missing anything. When I add up these changes, it looks like AA is only dropping one frequency form what was operated last July. I admit that AA at JFK is nothing like it was back in the day, but it doesn't look like the free fall that some declare. Given that JFK is a slot constrained airport, it seems that the additions were pie in the sky to begin with. With its strong presence on the LAX and LHR routes alone, AA keeps up a strong position at JFK. #3 is a tough place to be in a market and I contend that AA's strategy of being strong on higher margin routes with good O&D rather than chasing connecting traffic or marginal routes is the right strategy for them vis-a-vis JFK.
 
FSDan
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Re: OAG Changes 3/10/2019:Y4 New Routes;WN HNL-KOA/OGG;VC Trims;ET Adds ABJ-IAD;DL Ends DTW-GRU

Mon Mar 11, 2019 7:22 pm

I counted up AA departures at JFK on a Monday in June, and they'll be down to 84 (last summer they were around 100). I don't think JFK-BOS getting cut is about runway work at JFK - I haven't seen any indication that DL or B6 are cutting departures at JFK this summer... One consideration might be that AA does have less terminal space to work in on the BOS end now, so if JFK-BOS was a marginal performer then that could have made it an easy route to cut from both ends.
This is my signature until I think of a better one.
 
avi8
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Re: OAG Changes 3/10/2019:Y4 New Routes;WN HNL-KOA/OGG;VC Trims;ET Adds ABJ-IAD;DL Ends DTW-GRU

Mon Mar 11, 2019 7:34 pm

What happens to all the slots AA used to use in JFK?
avi8

Medschool student
 
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jfklganyc
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Re: OAG Changes 3/10/2019:Y4 New Routes;WN HNL-KOA/OGG;VC Trims;ET Adds ABJ-IAD;DL Ends DTW-GRU

Mon Mar 11, 2019 7:44 pm

The slots are supposedly going away after 31R is rebuilt this summer.

AA is likely just getting ahead of the game.

Long story short, you will see hubs, transcon and some Europe. S America likely stays til B6 enters that market.

50-60 flights a day is my prediction
 
Rdh3e
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Re: OAG Changes 3/10/2019:Y4 New Routes;WN HNL-KOA/OGG;VC Trims;ET Adds ABJ-IAD;DL Ends DTW-GRU

Mon Mar 11, 2019 8:07 pm

FSDan wrote:
I counted up AA departures at JFK on a Monday in June, and they'll be down to 84 (last summer they were around 100). I don't think JFK-BOS getting cut is about runway work at JFK - I haven't seen any indication that DL or B6 are cutting departures at JFK this summer... One consideration might be that AA does have less terminal space to work in on the BOS end now, so if JFK-BOS was a marginal performer then that could have made it an easy route to cut from both ends.


Here is AA's June frequency last year and this year for all markets:

Losers:
JFK-BOS….5.0 > 0.3
JFK-MCO….2.0 > 0.0 *exit
JFK-CLE….3.0 > 1.0
JFK-PAP….1.9 > 0.0
JFK-LAS….3.0 > 1.6
JFK-GIG….1.0 > 0.0
JFK-EDI….1.0 > 0.0
JFK-DUB….1.0 > 0.0
JFK-DEN….1.0 > 0.0
JFK-YUL….2.0 > 1.0
JFK-ORF….2.0 > 1.0
JFK-BWI….2.0 > 1.0
JFK-RDU….4.0 > 3.0
JFK-BDA….1.9 > 1.0
JFK-LAX….11.6 > 10.9

Flat:
JFK-PUJ….1.0 > 1.0
JFK-YYZ….2.0 > 2.0
JFK-SKB….0.1 > 0.1
JFK-SFO….4.7 > 4.7
JFK-SEA….2.0 > 2.0
JFK-SAN….2.0 > 2.0
JFK-PIT….1.0 > 1.0
JFK-PHL….1.0 > 1.0
JFK-IND….1.0 > 1.0
JFK-GRU….1.0 > 1.0
JFK-FCO….1.0 > 1.0
JFK-CVG….1.0 > 1.0
JFK-CUN….1.0 > 1.0
JFK-BNA….2.0 > 2.0
JFK-DCA….3.9 > 3.9
JFK-LHR….4.0 > 4.0
JFK-MIA….6.0 > 6.0
JFK-MXP….1.0 > 1.0
JFK-EZE….1.0 > 1.0
JFK-BCN….1.0 > 1.0
JFK-MAD….1.0 > 1.0
JFK-CDG….1.0 > 1.0
JFK-CMH….1.0 > 1.0

Gainers:
JFK-STT….0.0 > 0.1
JFK-ANU….0.7 > 1.0
JFK-PHX….4.4 > 5.0
JFK-CLT….6.0 > 7.0
JFK-ORD….1.0 > 2.0
JFK-AUS….1.0 > 2.0
JFK-SAT….0.0 > 1.0
JFK-DFW….2.0 > 3.9
 
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AVLAirlineFreq
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Re: OAG Changes 3/10/2019:Y4 New Routes;WN HNL-KOA/OGG;VC Trims;ET Adds ABJ-IAD;DL Ends DTW-GRU

Mon Mar 11, 2019 8:18 pm

Rdh3e wrote:

Here is AA's June frequency last year and this year for all markets:

Gainers:
JFK-STT….0.0 > 0.1
JFK-ANU….0.7 > 1.0
JFK-PHX….4.4 > 5.0
JFK-CLT….6.0 > 7.0
JFK-ORD….1.0 > 2.0
JFK-AUS….1.0 > 2.0
JFK-SAT….0.0 > 1.0
JFK-DFW….2.0 > 3.9


Interesting. Of those, four are AA hubs.
 
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N717TW
Posts: 533
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Re: OAG Changes 3/10/2019:Y4 New Routes;WN HNL-KOA/OGG;VC Trims;ET Adds ABJ-IAD;DL Ends DTW-GRU

Mon Mar 11, 2019 8:57 pm

enilria wrote:
I hadn't seen the intra-Hawaii frequency
*WN HNL-KOA MAY 0>3[0] JUN 0>4[0] JUL 0>4[0] AUG 0>4[0] SEP 0>4[0]
*WN HNL-OAK APR 0>2[0] MAY 0>2[0] JUN 0>2[0] JUL 0>2[0] AUG 0>2[0] SEP 0>2[0]
*WN HNL-OGG APR 0>0.4[0] MAY 0>4[0] JUN 0>4[0] JUL 0>4[0] AUG 0>4[0] SEP 0>4[0]
*WN HNL-SJC MAY 0>0.9[0] JUN 0>1.0[0] JUL 0>1.0[0] AUG 0>1.0[0] SEP 0>1.0[0]
*WN OAK-OGG APR 0>1.5[0] MAY 0>2[0] JUN 0>2[0] JUL 0>2[0] AUG 0>2[0] SEP 0>2[0]
*WN OGG-SJC MAY 0>0.2[0] JUN 0>1.0[0] JUL 0>1.0[0] AUG 0>1.0[0] SEP 0>1.0[0]


The inter-island flying is really interesting to me. Is WN planning on keeping two planes based in HNL to run 16 flights (although I guess, in theory you could run those 16 flights with one plane although it would be hard)? I was always under the impression that you couldn't run inter-island flights through to the mainland because of the USDA requirements. But then I've never really investigated the rules.

in any event, running inter island flights isn't easy against a beloved HA (which provides snacks and drinks on 20/30 minute flights in all my, although limited, experiences). Plus the 717s are a great jet for the purpose of doing quick turns, it'll be interesting to see if the 737s can do the same.
 
ScottB
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Re: OAG Changes 3/10/2019:Y4 New Routes;WN HNL-KOA/OGG;VC Trims;ET Adds ABJ-IAD;DL Ends DTW-GRU

Mon Mar 11, 2019 9:07 pm

FSDan wrote:
One consideration might be that AA does have less terminal space to work in on the BOS end now, so if JFK-BOS was a marginal performer then that could have made it an easy route to cut from both ends.


Gate space at BOS really shouldn't be a problem, even with AA consolidating operations on the west side of Terminal B. The current schedule has about 90 daily departures and they have just under 20 gates (they've taken back a couple of the former US gates which UA had been using after their move to Terminal B). Last summer, Delta had a bit over 100 daily departures, including four transatlantic, from its 15 gates at Terminal A (maybe 15-and-a-half if they're sharing A1 with WS).

AVLAirlineFreq wrote:
Interesting. Of those, four are AA hubs.


Two are vacation markets and two are strong AA spoke markets in Texas just outside the LGA perimeter. I have to wonder if AA going double-daily on AUS-JFK is partly about defense of AUS market share with DL now offering 3x daily AUS-JFK and persistent rumblings of DL interest in more point-to-point service from AUS.
 
tphuang
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Re: OAG Changes 3/10/2019:Y4 New Routes;WN HNL-KOA/OGG;VC Trims;ET Adds ABJ-IAD;DL Ends DTW-GRU

Tue Mar 12, 2019 12:51 am

For JFK, mint entrance into LAS/SAN/SEA really killed AA there. Now they are down to being profitable just at LHR/LAX/SFO and hubs. That's not great to keeping JFK going. And things are only getting worse as ff jump ship to DL.

JFK-LAX/SFO saw significant drop off in performance from 2017 to 2018. The domino effect has started. That's why you are seeing cuts coming much faster for AA.

I think AUS/SAT are just more tries at trying to find routes that don't loose money out of JFK. They tried DEN, that didn't work. They increased BOS, that didn't work. They tried PHL for a month, that didn't work. They increased SEA/SAN/LAS, that just lost money last summer. Not many non-hub places left to park the slots. Those 44 seat regional flights are really high in cost with much fewer high revenue flights to connect to.
 
Cubsrule
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Re: OAG Changes 3/10/2019:Y4 New Routes;WN HNL-KOA/OGG;VC Trims;ET Adds ABJ-IAD;DL Ends DTW-GRU

Tue Mar 12, 2019 1:59 am

N717TW wrote:
The inter-island flying is really interesting to me. Is WN planning on keeping two planes based in HNL to run 16 flights (although I guess, in theory you could run those 16 flights with one plane although it would be hard)? I was always under the impression that you couldn't run inter-island flights through to the mainland because of the USDA requirements. But then I've never really investigated the rules.


Back when OGG-Mainland required a fuel stop, weren’t all sorts of carriers effectively running inter-island flights through to the Mainland?
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N717TW
Posts: 533
Joined: Sun Feb 14, 2016 9:24 pm

Re: OAG Changes 3/10/2019:Y4 New Routes;WN HNL-KOA/OGG;VC Trims;ET Adds ABJ-IAD;DL Ends DTW-GRU

Tue Mar 12, 2019 11:59 am

Cubsrule wrote:
N717TW wrote:
The inter-island flying is really interesting to me. Is WN planning on keeping two planes based in HNL to run 16 flights (although I guess, in theory you could run those 16 flights with one plane although it would be hard)? I was always under the impression that you couldn't run inter-island flights through to the mainland because of the USDA requirements. But then I've never really investigated the rules.


Back when OGG-Mainland required a fuel stop, weren’t all sorts of carriers effectively running inter-island flights through to the Mainland?


yes, but I didn't think you could buy local traffic tickets on those flights. (I know UA used to run a bunch of inter-island flights as recently as the late 80s).
 
BWA900
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Re: OAG Changes 3/10/2019:Y4 New Routes;WN HNL-KOA/OGG;VC Trims;ET Adds ABJ-IAD;DL Ends DTW-GRU

Thu Mar 14, 2019 3:09 pm

Brickell305 wrote:
enilria wrote:
B6 BGI-FLL JUN 1.0>0.8[1.0] JUL 1.0>0.5[1.0] AUG 1.0>0.6[1.0] SEP 1.0>0.6[1.0] OCT 0.8>0.5[1.0]
B6 BGI-JFK JUL 2>1.7[2] OCT 1.8>1.4[1.7]

Interesting that now AA is re-adding capacity to the island, we see a retreat from B6. I guess AA still has some muscle in Barbados and B6 is feeling it.


It also looks like AA's plan is working since they're now offering very competitive flights to MIA. I didn't expect it to work out for them as well as it is, though.
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