maps4ltd
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 1:48 am

AEROFAN wrote:
maps4ltd wrote:
I have an American MAX 8 flight next week, so I hope it doesn't get grounded.


How do you know you are on a max and not just a regular 737-8? I'm on an AA 737-800 flight next Monday, but cannot tell if it is a max or not...


If the aircraft variant is listed as "7M8 passenger/MAX 8" and has 33 rows, it's a MAX

If a regular 737-800 has 33 rows instead of 30 (or numbered liked this), it has been modified to have the same interior as the MAX, which includes no PTVs and reduced legroom. If it's the regular 160-seat -800 variant, you can go on entertainment.aa.com and see if yours has TVs or not.
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maint123
Posts: 178
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 1:53 am

CriticalPoint wrote:
Zaf wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
No, these developing countries have crashed numerous 737NG and A320 aircraft. No one called for grounding those fleets.

But those were pilot errors and bad maintenance. The MAX keeps diving and pilots can't do anything about it.

The pilots can complete their immediate action items and cut off the automatic trim......the pilots at United, American and Southwest can complete this procedure without crashing, you know why? Because of world class training, before I ground an entire type I would consider the two airlines at play and their experience and training culture.

If any of you knew even 10% of the Flight manual bulletins and training bulletins pilots in the US get We would need 100 more 1000 post threads. Did lion air pilots and Ethiopian pilots get the same training bulletins and flight manual bulletins?

The lion air captain was usa trained and certified.
 
Mboyle1988
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 1:55 am

GSPSPOT wrote:
I get the relatively high number of incidents with this type within a short time, but as others have (no doubt) pointed out, how many WN, AA, etc MAXes have crashed? What is the differentiating factor? It is obviously a safe aircraft in day-to-day use on certain missions. Maybe not on others/operated by others(??).


Jingoism is very dangerous. Ethiopian is in the Star alliance and has high safety standards. That it hasn’t happened in the US could easily be good fortune.
 
CriticalPoint
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 1:59 am

maint123 wrote:
CriticalPoint wrote:
Zaf wrote:
But those were pilot errors and bad maintenance. The MAX keeps diving and pilots can't do anything about it.

The pilots can complete their immediate action items and cut off the automatic trim......the pilots at United, American and Southwest can complete this procedure without crashing, you know why? Because of world class training, before I ground an entire type I would consider the two airlines at play and their experience and training culture.

If any of you knew even 10% of the Flight manual bulletins and training bulletins pilots in the US get We would need 100 more 1000 post threads. Did lion air pilots and Ethiopian pilots get the same training bulletins and flight manual bulletins?

The lion air captain was usa trained and certified.


Again I’m talking about airline training.
 
GSPSPOT
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 2:00 am

DocLightning wrote:
GSPSPOT wrote:
I get the relatively high number of incidents with this type within a short time, but as others have (no doubt) pointed out, how many WN, AA, etc MAXes have crashed? What is the differentiating factor? It is obviously a safe aircraft in day-to-day use on certain missions. Maybe not on others/operated by others(??).


If I count correctly, as of 31 January, 65 MAX had been delivered to WN, UA, and AA in aggregate. That’s 18-19% of the world fleet. So even if it were just dumb luck, that could account for it. It’s hard to do any meaningful statistics on a figure like 2/350.

2/350 seems like good odds to me. ;)
Great Lakes, great life.
 
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cougar15
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 2:02 am

ORDfan101 wrote:
My money is on cargo fire



The crew reported difficulties and was returning to the airport, no bombs or cargo fires!

http://avherald.com/h?article=4c534c4a&opt=0
some you lose, others you can´t win!
 
QueenoftheSkies
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 2:05 am

CALMSP wrote:
we went through a worldwide grounding of the 787, i would say something is coming soon for the MAX.


I concur. It’s not a matter of if but when. Especially now that operators have started doing it on their own. If anything, just way to save face for Boeing and the FAA.
 
BoeingGuy
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 2:06 am

Virtual737 wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
We have 300+ posts on this on two other threads. Do we really need more of this crap?


I'm going to play devil's advocate here and I'm replying to your post because, across the recent 737 Max threads you at least appear to be the most vocal of those criticising any suggestion of a total Max 8 grounding.

On this forum we (mere mortals) are constantly reminded that the aviation industry is fully ingrained with a safety first attitude. People in the industry are highly trained and certified to a level seen in very few other industries. Just a few months ago we had a discussion where a highly respected pilot from a highly respected carrier suggested that a flight might not depart because of missing duvets as it was a very real safety of flight issue. Again it was made clear that "we do not take risks - period". To be fully open about raising this topic, I apologised profusely to said member because my tone during my replies in that conversation was not up to standard.

Now we have 2 almost brand new 737 Max 8 aircraft lost during initial climb. Some are suggesting that these 2 accidents absolutely did not occur during the same phase of flight because MCAS is not active with any flap extended. Other data suggests that the aircraft was a ~400kts, well above max flap 1 speed and several minutes after departure at which point flaps would usually be fully retracted. In other words, it is not yet fully clear whether flaps were extended or not, nor whether MCAS would be in play or not.

You have made the point that not knowing the cause of this latest crash is absolutely not a reason for a grounding, that it is a crazy idea and anyone even suggesting such is basically a dumbass. Heck, we even had a moderator stating that ANY suggestion of a grounding would result in the post being deleted.

Now we have CAAC grounding the type under their control, with others already or likely following. So there are those in the industry (and in a position to make such a decision) who have decided that a grounding is the right thing to do, which would suggest that those calling any such action crazy, and moderators suggesting that posts would be deleted are probably over-reacting more than those they are pointing the finger at for over-reacting.

CAAC is probably the LEAST likely authority to make a decision based on what is written on A.Net, so let's not go there. Others have already stated that CAAC's decision was only made to protect their Airbus final assembly business, which personally I think is a disgusting thing to suggest without direct proof.

Anyway, back to my main point:

1.) We have two Max 8 total loss accidents within a short time period.
2.) Both were during climb out.
3.) We "know" that one was directly related to MCAS.
4.) MCAS has not been categorically ruled out on the second.
5.) Boeing have a "procedure" in place (which they didn't widely publish before entry into service) for what to do when your new plane is trying to kill you.
6.) No absolute fix for potential MCAS flaws has been released (a procedure on what to do to arrest massive nose down pitch during a phase of flight where altitude is not on your side is not a fix!)

..and you state that not knowing a reason for a crash is absolutely no reason for grounding a fleet. What if there was another crash next week and we still don't know the reason? What if there were 2 more next week (and one was an American carrier) and we still don't know the reason? At what point would it be OK to take preventative action when you still don't know the cause?

I've been an aviation enthusiast for 40+ years and I am becoming more confused every day. On this forum we hear the same reasons being given to justify both action and inaction but you can't have it both ways.

The very fact that CAAC has decided to ground a fleet, in my humble opinion, would suggest that those who were criticising even the slightest suggestion of a grounding might want to rethink their position.... or maybe offer an apology.


Really overly dramatic post. Yes Boeing has always had the procedure and it’s trained. It’s a memory recall item on EVERY Boeing model. If the Stabilizer Trim is running away (“trying to kill you” in your unprofessional and inaccurate verbaige) then you select the Stabilizer Cutout Switches.
 
CriticalPoint
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 2:14 am

BoeingGuy wrote:
Virtual737 wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
We have 300+ posts on this on two other threads. Do we really need more of this crap?


I'm going to play devil's advocate here and I'm replying to your post because, across the recent 737 Max threads you at least appear to be the most vocal of those criticising any suggestion of a total Max 8 grounding.

On this forum we (mere mortals) are constantly reminded that the aviation industry is fully ingrained with a safety first attitude. People in the industry are highly trained and certified to a level seen in very few other industries. Just a few months ago we had a discussion where a highly respected pilot from a highly respected carrier suggested that a flight might not depart because of missing duvets as it was a very real safety of flight issue. Again it was made clear that "we do not take risks - period". To be fully open about raising this topic, I apologised profusely to said member because my tone during my replies in that conversation was not up to standard.

Now we have 2 almost brand new 737 Max 8 aircraft lost during initial climb. Some are suggesting that these 2 accidents absolutely did not occur during the same phase of flight because MCAS is not active with any flap extended. Other data suggests that the aircraft was a ~400kts, well above max flap 1 speed and several minutes after departure at which point flaps would usually be fully retracted. In other words, it is not yet fully clear whether flaps were extended or not, nor whether MCAS would be in play or not.

You have made the point that not knowing the cause of this latest crash is absolutely not a reason for a grounding, that it is a crazy idea and anyone even suggesting such is basically a dumbass. Heck, we even had a moderator stating that ANY suggestion of a grounding would result in the post being deleted.

Now we have CAAC grounding the type under their control, with others already or likely following. So there are those in the industry (and in a position to make such a decision) who have decided that a grounding is the right thing to do, which would suggest that those calling any such action crazy, and moderators suggesting that posts would be deleted are probably over-reacting more than those they are pointing the finger at for over-reacting.

CAAC is probably the LEAST likely authority to make a decision based on what is written on A.Net, so let's not go there. Others have already stated that CAAC's decision was only made to protect their Airbus final assembly business, which personally I think is a disgusting thing to suggest without direct proof.

Anyway, back to my main point:

1.) We have two Max 8 total loss accidents within a short time period.
2.) Both were during climb out.
3.) We "know" that one was directly related to MCAS.
4.) MCAS has not been categorically ruled out on the second.
5.) Boeing have a "procedure" in place (which they didn't widely publish before entry into service) for what to do when your new plane is trying to kill you.
6.) No absolute fix for potential MCAS flaws has been released (a procedure on what to do to arrest massive nose down pitch during a phase of flight where altitude is not on your side is not a fix!)

..and you state that not knowing a reason for a crash is absolutely no reason for grounding a fleet. What if there was another crash next week and we still don't know the reason? What if there were 2 more next week (and one was an American carrier) and we still don't know the reason? At what point would it be OK to take preventative action when you still don't know the cause?

I've been an aviation enthusiast for 40+ years and I am becoming more confused every day. On this forum we hear the same reasons being given to justify both action and inaction but you can't have it both ways.

The very fact that CAAC has decided to ground a fleet, in my humble opinion, would suggest that those who were criticising even the slightest suggestion of a grounding might want to rethink their position.... or maybe offer an apology.


Really overly dramatic post. Yes Boeing has always had the procedure and it’s trained. It’s a memory recall item on EVERY Boeing model. If the Stabilizer Trim is running away (“trying to kill you” in your unprofessional and inaccurate verbaige) then you select the Stabilizer Cutout Switches.


And there are 2 of them located under red covers on the throttle quadrant next to the Captain.......every Boeing pilot should know EXACTLY where those two switches are. They are in the same spot on the 737 as the 757,767,787,777..........
 
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casinterest
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 2:17 am

mjoelnir wrote:
casinterest wrote:
We don't know what caused either crash. A grounding is premature.

For those that point to the 787, the batteries overheated, and caught fire. People knew the cause of the issue.
These two planes have crashed due to much more complicated factors that need to be investigated. The only thing to do is wait for the investigations to release their findings and directives. There are now hundreds of flights a day that are successful on the 737 max, so we really need to wait to see if this is a horrible coincidence of two planes crashing, or if there is an airframe/software/pilot training issue that needs to be addressed.


People did only knew that the batteries overheated and caught fire. The grounding was because nobody knew why.

It is exactly the other way round. If the cause for two crashes of one type in a short time frame can not be deducted, or at least deducted that there must be two independent causes, a grounding is inevitable until the causes for both accidents are determined.
If you know exactly what happened, than there is usually a way past the problem, there comes an AD and grounding is only necessary if there is no way to escape the problem at least temporarily by changed procedures.

I point to one of the most famous row of accidents and the beginning of modern accident research. De Havilland Comet 1. Grounded exactly because there was no known cause for the accidents.

The Authorities have the FDR and CVR of the Lion air crash. It there was a glaring issue with the plane, they would have already grounded the plane. For now we know there was a directive to pilots for the procedure to deal with MCAS. We now have a 2nd crash. One which we know nothing about. It could be something else entirely, and we will need to wait and see what occurred. The CVR and FDR will be recovered as time allows.

Boeing and the companies operating the 737 Max are all going to be scrutinizing their data. There will be conference calls all week where Boeing is going to be pressed for data , and there will be CEO's and COO's that have to make a decision on what to do going forward. As we have seen , some political agencies have called for the grounding, but i have yet to see what the CEO's are all deciding.

It will be a political choice, because it won't be based on any facts, and the facts may take some time to come through and be sorted out from the current noise.
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
alggag
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 2:19 am

737max8 wrote:
washingtonflyer wrote:
So, what do medium to large 738MAX operators do (Southwest, Air Canada, and American) to shore up capacity? Bring old 733s, MD80s and 757s out of storage?


Southwest doesn't have any more 733's in storage to fly. They've all been moved and offspec.

A grounding of 34 jets will be tough on the operation.


I wonder if the WN mechanics will express concerns and attempt to pressure/shame management into grounding them even if they don't necessarily feel that there is a genuine safety concern with the fleet. I hate to sound insensitive to the deceased but it would be a big power move on their part in their on going back and forth with the company.
 
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hongkongflyer
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 2:20 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
BaconButty wrote:
I doubt we need a grounding, but there are some concerning aspects of MCAS that warrant some official reassurance (if there is any to be had) or some operating decisions. The way I see it, it's very unlikely that MCAS will cause an accident in the same manner as JT610 again now that's it's behaviour is understood - hope I don't get proved wrong as the factos of this last accident emerge.

However - MCAS is there for a reason (stability in pitch at cruise). And it's dependent on the AOA sensor and Pitot tubes with no seeming strategy for redundancy. So imagine a situation where you lose one of them in cruise. MCAS causes a sort-of runaway trim. Not to worry, the pilot will now pull the plug on it - jolly good. However you've now lost an important protection right at the point the pilot may need it most. We're in an AF447 situation, we've got unreliable airspeed or no AOA indication, and pull back on the yoke a little and because the aircraft is not stable in pitch - stall.

As an interested layman, this isn't a good situation - frankly I'm amazed it was certified. And I think it warranted more communication from Boeing, the FAA and the NTSB. I'm not saying that all Max's should be grounded, it may be that a reduction in operating altitude would address the issue. But all we got was that disturbing statement from Boeing attempting to immediately lay the blame on the customer - not the attitude to safety I imagine most of us would like to see.


A reasoned response but I don't see a problem with Boeing's statement. That Lion Air jet had multiple maintenance incidents but yet they kept returning it to the flight line. You would never see that happen in the US, Canada, Australia, W Europe. That plane would be in the maintenance hangar until it was 100% certain that the issue was fixed.


How many times WN had been fined for maintenance incidents in 2018?
 
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Francoflier
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 2:23 am

I don't see why calls for grounding would be so out of place.

Airplanes have been grounded for much less than this.

We are talking about 2 accidents in a short period of time, resulting in the tragic death of 346 people. One of these accidents was partly imputable to the airplane's design.
This is definitely a statistical outlier.

Aviation is all about safety, and this safety is driven by an overabundance of caution. The logical thing to do when fatal accidents occur for unknown reasons is to stop operations until the reason is known and addressed. I understand that brand loyalty, associated with misplaced patriotism, often mars discussions on this forum, but to keep doing the same thing despite several unexplained lethal occurrences in hope that it won't happen again is the opposite of safety.
I'll do my own airline. With Blackjack. And hookers. In fact, forget the airline.
 
Virtual737
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 2:25 am

BoeingGuy wrote:
Really overly dramatic post. Yes Boeing has always had the procedure and it’s trained. It’s a memory recall item on EVERY Boeing model. If the Stabilizer Trim is running away (“trying to kill you” in your unprofessional and inaccurate verbaige) then you select the Stabilizer Cutout Switches.


That procedure was in place before MCAS existed. MCAS is not installed on EVERY Boeing model. Prior to the Lion Air crash, MCAS was little known to many operators. The procedure was not updated (to my knowledge but I'm sure you'll correct me if I'm wrong) before the introduction of the MAX to make it clear that this new safety feature could induce runaway stab trim during a critical phase of flight where altitude is not your friend, and such failure could occur with a single inoperative sensor.

If I was trying to be overly dramatic then I would have written "is going to kill you".

You pick a single line from my post to try and discredit while ignoring the main point I was making, so I'll ask you three questions directly.

1.) At what point would you suggest a grounding of a type is prudent even though the exact cause of accidents is not known? 2 fatal accidents, 3, 10, never?

2.) Given the very recent actions of a national agency and at least 1 additional airline, do you think it is the right thing to do to call out any mention of a fleet grounding as a total over-reaction and that any such post be deleted with the poster being discredited and / or mocked?

3.) Hypothetically, given your username, would your answers to any of the above be different if it was a manufacturer other than Boeing involved?
 
BoeingGuy
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 2:25 am

casinterest wrote:
mjoelnir wrote:
casinterest wrote:
We don't know what caused either crash. A grounding is premature.

For those that point to the 787, the batteries overheated, and caught fire. People knew the cause of the issue.
These two planes have crashed due to much more complicated factors that need to be investigated. The only thing to do is wait for the investigations to release their findings and directives. There are now hundreds of flights a day that are successful on the 737 max, so we really need to wait to see if this is a horrible coincidence of two planes crashing, or if there is an airframe/software/pilot training issue that needs to be addressed.


People did only knew that the batteries overheated and caught fire. The grounding was because nobody knew why.

It is exactly the other way round. If the cause for two crashes of one type in a short time frame can not be deducted, or at least deducted that there must be two independent causes, a grounding is inevitable until the causes for both accidents are determined.
If you know exactly what happened, than there is usually a way past the problem, there comes an AD and grounding is only necessary if there is no way to escape the problem at least temporarily by changed procedures.

I point to one of the most famous row of accidents and the beginning of modern accident research. De Havilland Comet 1. Grounded exactly because there was no known cause for the accidents.

The Authorities have the FDR and CVR of the Lion air crash. It there was a glaring issue with the plane, they would have already grounded the plane. For now we know there was a directive to pilots for the procedure to deal with MCAS. We now have a 2nd crash. One which we know nothing about. It could be something else entirely, and we will need to wait and see what occurred. The CVR and FDR will be recovered as time allows.

Boeing and the companies operating the 737 Max are all going to be scrutinizing their data. There will be conference calls all week where Boeing is going to be pressed for data , and there will be CEO's and COO's that have to make a decision on what to do going forward. As we have seen , some political agencies have called for the grounding, but i have yet to see what the CEO's are all deciding.

It will be a political choice, because it won't be based on any facts, and the facts may take some time to come through and be sorted out from the current noise.


Very solid intelligent post. You are spot on. Let’s let the experts figure out what happened. Then whatever is learned will be addressed. It might very well be something completely unrelated.
 
BoeingGuy
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 2:37 am

Virtual737 wrote:
BoeingGuy wrote:
Really overly dramatic post. Yes Boeing has always had the procedure and it’s trained. It’s a memory recall item on EVERY Boeing model. If the Stabilizer Trim is running away (“trying to kill you” in your unprofessional and inaccurate verbaige) then you select the Stabilizer Cutout Switches.


That procedure was in place before MCAS existed. MCAS is not installed on EVERY Boeing model. Prior to the Lion Air crash, MCAS was little known to many operators. The procedure was not updated (to my knowledge but I'm sure you'll correct me if I'm wrong) before the introduction of the MAX to make it clear that this new safety feature could induce runaway stab trim during a critical phase of flight where altitude is not your friend, and such failure could occur with a single inoperative sensor.

If I was trying to be overly dramatic then I would have written "is going to kill you".

You pick a single line from my post to try and discredit while ignoring the main point I was making, so I'll ask you three questions directly.

1.) At what point would you suggest a grounding of a type is prudent even though the exact cause of accidents is not known? 2 fatal accidents, 3, 10, never?

2.) Given the very recent actions of a national agency and at least 1 additional airline, do you think it is the right thing to do to call out any mention of a fleet grounding as a total over-reaction and that any such post be deleted with the poster being discredited and / or mocked?

3.) Hypothetically, given your username, would your answers to any of the above be different if it was a manufacturer other than Boeing involved?


Very valid points. Actually MCAS only functions when the Flaps are up, so it doesn’t occur close to the ground in normal operations.

Like I’ve said in quite a few recent posts, let’s let the experts determine what happened. If there were a common thread - and we don’t know that yet - then the regulations will make the appropriate decisions. I’m not going to speculate on when a fleet should be grounded, especially when we don’t have enough information.

Your last question is interesting and a very fair question. No it wouldn’t matter. If you looked over the history of my posts, you would be hard pressed to find me openly criticizing other manufacturers. Sure, I favor one kind of airplane over others, but I like them all. Airbus makes a great airplane. Nobody I know gets pleasure if an Airbus goes down. Important thing is we all learn from it and fix whatever occurred so it never happens again.
 
Gangurru
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 2:42 am

Firstly, my heart goes out to those grieving today and those in Indonesia who will be reminded of their recent loss. My heart also goes out to those who have to clean up the mess and support the families.

I lost family in the 1979 Mt Erebus DC10 crash. This was the 3rd DC10 accident in about six months which collectively cost nearly 600 lives. It was a shocking and emotional time. There were intense calls to ground the DC10, yet the subsequent investigations proved the correct action was taken.

This means I truly appreciated the need for acting rationally, however using the justification of “inconvenience”, “cost” or assuming political motivation for a decision is never in the interests of aviation safety.

In this case, there appears to be two similar accidents that may be related to fundamental issues with the aircraft and/or pilot training. That in itself is cause for concern. In my opinion, calls for grounding are a rational response, especially if the threshold for making a decision is an abundance of caution.

Thankfully that decision will be made by those more informed than me and most of us in the airliners.net community. My wish is this: to those who have to decide, may you act wisely.
 
Virtual737
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 2:49 am

BoeingGuy wrote:
Your last question is interesting and a very fair question. No it wouldn’t matter. If you looked over the history of my posts, you would be hard pressed to find me openly criticizing other manufacturers. Sure, I favor one kind of airplane over others, but I like them all. Airbus makes a great airplane. Nobody I know gets pleasure if an Airbus goes down. Important thing is we all learn from it and fix whatever occurred so it never happens again.


Thank you. I very much appreciate and respect your reply.

With regard to the flap positioning and proximity to ground, I'm reasonably sure I've been on several flights where the wing was clean as low as 1500ft, perhaps less. I'm not sure what vertical speed a full nose down stab trim would give with a clean configuration at, say 220kias, but for arguments sake, if it could command even 4000fpm that likely would not give the time for a recovery even if stab trim was immediately disabled. It would still take many seconds to manually reverse the trim and the aircraft to stop the descent.

It's for this reason alone that I think much of the decision making in the design / certification (especially grandfathering) of the MAX, in relation to MCAS and then need for it, was not up to par. From my own username, the 737 is my favourite type. I still own most of the front end of one....
 
GalaxyFlyer
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 2:54 am

And the 727 and, I’ll bet, the 707. Every one of the ten jets I flew had a runaway or jammed stabilizer procedure.

GF
 
CriticalPoint
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 2:59 am

Virtual737 wrote:
BoeingGuy wrote:
Your last question is interesting and a very fair question. No it wouldn’t matter. If you looked over the history of my posts, you would be hard pressed to find me openly criticizing other manufacturers. Sure, I favor one kind of airplane over others, but I like them all. Airbus makes a great airplane. Nobody I know gets pleasure if an Airbus goes down. Important thing is we all learn from it and fix whatever occurred so it never happens again.


Thank you. I very much appreciate and respect your reply.

With regard to the flap positioning and proximity to ground, I'm reasonably sure I've been on several flights where the wing was clean as low as 1500ft, perhaps less. I'm not sure what vertical speed a full nose down stab trim would give with a clean configuration at, say 220kias, but for arguments sake, if it could command even 4000fpm that likely would not give the time for a recovery even if stab trim was immediately disabled. It would still take many seconds to manually reverse the trim and the aircraft to stop the descent.

It's for this reason alone that I think much of the decision making in the design / certification (especially grandfathering) of the MAX, in relation to MCAS and then need for it, was not up to par. From my own username, the 737 is my favourite type. I still own most of the front end of one....


It depends on the departure procedure for the airport. Several foreign airports (ICAO) have a 1500ft Thrust reduction altitude and a 3000ft acceleration altitude. We call this a NADP 1 departure and it is for noise abatement. In this case the flaps would Not be moved until atleast 3000ft.
 
StuckinCMHland
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 3:01 am

uta999 wrote:
The big new engines further up front, coupled with a 1960s designed tail section, make the MAX8 unstable in certain circumstances such as the climb.

This could be a repeat of the MD11, which was all new up front, but suffered very poor control when landing. The tail was simply too small for the new added weight up front. Landing in crosswinds it would drop a wing and cartwheel.

It appears the MAX is unstable in much the same way, confusing both the AP and the crew into fatal actions.


Please prove your case with facts and data.

The reality is you cannot make this case, even filled with conditional words such as "appears" and the fact that in your first two sentences you make assumptions you cannot prove.

Very disappointing thread.
 
T54A
Posts: 218
Joined: Mon Oct 19, 2015 11:47 am

Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 3:04 am

China has grounded the Max. Watch Boeing share price on Mon morning. Boeing has dropped the ball for the second time in a row.
T6, Allouette 3, Oryx, King Air, B1900, B727, B744, A319, A342/3/6 A332/3
 
BoeingGuy
Posts: 6314
Joined: Fri Dec 10, 2010 6:01 pm

Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 3:09 am

T54A wrote:
China has grounded the Max. Watch Boeing share price on Mon morning. Boeing has dropped the ball for the second time in a row.


Nice to know that you already know the results of the investigation of the crash.

What if it turns out to have been a bomb? Then did Boeing drop the ball?

BTW, at least one news outlet has reported that a witness claims the airplane was on fire before it hit the ground. Not sure if that’s true or not yet, but we sure as heck don’t have any basis to say that Boeing dropped the ball.
 
ORDfan101
Posts: 121
Joined: Thu Jan 03, 2019 2:14 am

Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 3:12 am

[twoid]i[/twoid]
cougar15 wrote:
ORDfan101 wrote:
My money is on cargo fire



The crew reported difficulties and was returning to the airport, no bombs or cargo fires!

http://avherald.com/h?article=4c534c4a&opt=0


Maybe they didn’t see smoke and it burned cables
 
EWR762
Posts: 37
Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 9:48 am

Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 3:21 am

T54A wrote:
China has grounded the Max...


Cayman Airways have also stopped Max 8 flights

https://www.caymanairways.com/CALsuspendsMax8Operations

- EWR762
 
wedgetail737
Posts: 4989
Joined: Mon Aug 04, 2003 8:44 am

Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 3:35 am

It'll be interesting what the FAA and other flight certification groups will do in light of the two accidents, if anything, in the near-term.
 
YYZatcboy
Posts: 1173
Joined: Fri Apr 22, 2005 2:15 am

Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 3:37 am

wedgetail737 wrote:
It'll be interesting what the FAA and other flight certification groups will do in light of the two accidents, if anything, in the near-term.


One certification group has grounded the aircraft. (China, in case you didn't see it in the volume of posts.)
https://www.cnn.com/2019/03/10/africa/c ... index.html

Cheers!
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PlymSpotter
Posts: 10550
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 3:37 am

Looks like Ethiopian may have paused their operations too. Several upcoming 7M8 departures have apparently (FR24) switched to the -800NG - we will soon see what actually takes to the sky.
...love is just a camouflage for what resembles rage again...
 
D L X
Posts: 12472
Joined: Thu May 27, 1999 3:30 am

Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 3:42 am

BoeingGuy wrote:
bgm wrote:
longhauler wrote:
Exactly.

I know that at Air Canada, when the (likely) cause of the Lion Air accident became apparent, memos were issued to MAX8 pilots pointing them to proper drills for review. Also training was adjusted to include such a scenario during initial training and on recurrent training. I know of many Captains that include this scenario in their "emergency review" before the first flight of every pairing.

I don't doubt that UA, AA and WN are doing the same thing! And I also don't doubt that the FAA (and Transport Canada) has compiled the data and feel this is a sufficient solution.


I guess the question is, why did Boeing not inform pilots about this change? I seem to recall they did the same thing when they introduced the 737-400 (some switch was altered) which led to the BD92 crash in the UK. It wasn't the sole cause, but the failure to disclose the alteration contributed to the crash.

It would be prudent to ground the MAX until they can at least figure out if this was a similar situation. Grounding some aircraft temporarily is better than potentially more loss of life (and further damage to the 737's reputation). I certainly won't be setting foot on a 737MAX until they've figured out what is going on. I'm sure a lot of other pax feel the same way.


That isn’t quite what happened in the British Midlands crash. It was total Crew error, but there was an engine indication instrument that could have been more clear. Wasn’t a new switch.

Was it not the case that in prior 737’s the cockpit air was supplied by the opposite engine as in the 734, such that when the pilots smelled smoke they assumed it was the wrong engine and cut it?

That would make that switch a highly contributing factor.
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 3:45 am

Virtual737 wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
We have 300+ posts on this on two other threads. Do we really need more of this crap?

I'm going to play devil's advocate here and I'm replying to your post because, across the recent 737 Max threads you at least appear to be the most vocal of those criticising any suggestion of a total Max 8 grounding.

I can stop you right there... I'm criticizing only the idiotic idea of grounding with absolutely NO idea what the contributory issues were.

If any correlation or inexplicable contributory forces are recognized, then by all means, ground the aircraft-- but not 0.03seconds after an incident when they don't even know what happened, let alone what caused it to happen.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
F9Animal
Posts: 4235
Joined: Thu Dec 16, 2004 7:13 am

Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 3:53 am

Yes, I do believe it would be best to ground them until it is figured out. We have learned that history has a way of repeating itself. If anything, life before profit comes to mind.
I Am A Different Animal!!
 
Flightsimboy
Posts: 1772
Joined: Sun Sep 11, 2005 12:49 pm

Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 3:59 am

China grounds Boeing 737 MAX planes after Ethiopian air crash

https://www-m.cnn.com/2019/03/10/africa ... cnn.com%2F
LAX772LR - "Answer to goofy question:" in response to my question about the B737-MAX8 being grounded. 48 hours later all B737-MAX8 grounded worldwide. Go figure!!
 
PlanesNTrains
Posts: 9527
Joined: Tue Feb 01, 2005 4:19 pm

Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 4:01 am

Flightsimboy wrote:
China grounds Boeing 737 MAX planes after Ethiopian air crash

https://www-m.cnn.com/2019/03/10/africa ... cnn.com%2F


Yes, it’s already been reported in this thread. Multiple times just on this page. I understand you’re a bit excited though.
Last edited by PlanesNTrains on Mon Mar 11, 2019 4:02 am, edited 1 time in total.
-Dave


MAX’d out on MAX threads. If you are starting a thread, and it’s about the MAX - stop. There’s already a thread that covers it.
 
itisi
Posts: 267
Joined: Fri Jul 22, 2016 12:37 pm

Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 4:01 am

Cayman Airways have grounded their pair too.
737-300/400/500 ... are NOT classics :)
 
PlanesNTrains
Posts: 9527
Joined: Tue Feb 01, 2005 4:19 pm

Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 4:02 am

itisi wrote:
Cayman Airways have grounded their pair too.


Yes, reported on this page already.
-Dave


MAX’d out on MAX threads. If you are starting a thread, and it’s about the MAX - stop. There’s already a thread that covers it.
 
D L X
Posts: 12472
Joined: Thu May 27, 1999 3:30 am

Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 4:04 am

LAX772LR wrote:
Virtual737 wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
We have 300+ posts on this on two other threads. Do we really need more of this crap?

I'm going to play devil's advocate here and I'm replying to your post because, across the recent 737 Max threads you at least appear to be the most vocal of those criticising any suggestion of a total Max 8 grounding.

I can stop you right there... I'm criticizing only the idiotic idea of grounding with absolutely NO idea what the contributory issues were.

If any correlation or inexplicable contributory forces are recognized, then by all means, ground the aircraft-- but not 0.03seconds after an incident when they don't even know what happened, let alone what caused it to happen.

Lax772lr,
I’ve known you to be a level-headed poster in this site for years and years. But knock it off with calling people idiotic for suggesting grounding. I’m suggesting it too.

We should ground BECAUSE we don’t know why the new designed planes are crashing. We thought we had instituted the fix, and it seems either to have just not worked, cased a new problem, or been too difficult to identify and correct. Or maybe, MCAS isn’t the problem at all.

It is a reasonable response to discuss grounding. (Especially now that nations and airlines are taking exactly that tack.)

How about some civility on a.net?
 
Flightsimboy
Posts: 1772
Joined: Sun Sep 11, 2005 12:49 pm

Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 4:05 am

PlanesNTrains wrote:
Flightsimboy wrote:
China grounds Boeing 737 MAX planes after Ethiopian air crash

https://www-m.cnn.com/2019/03/10/africa ... cnn.com%2F


Yes, it’s already been reported in this thread. Multiple times just on this page. I understand you’re a bit excited though.


I quoted the second time as this was CNN themselves. Maybe an American news source would be more believable.
LAX772LR - "Answer to goofy question:" in response to my question about the B737-MAX8 being grounded. 48 hours later all B737-MAX8 grounded worldwide. Go figure!!
 
Akwagon
Posts: 8
Joined: Mon Mar 11, 2019 4:01 am

Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 4:06 am

Follow aviation for a long time. Both brother and dad long time commercial pilots most recent md-11.

Reading all this.
Why not temp solution.
“Stab trim runaway, reduce speed and deploy flaps for stabilized flight. Maintain slow speed with flaps deployed and emergency divert....”

Kills the mcas and allows plane back into control... unusual move..... but.....?
 
PlanesNTrains
Posts: 9527
Joined: Tue Feb 01, 2005 4:19 pm

Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 4:09 am

Flightsimboy wrote:
PlanesNTrains wrote:
Flightsimboy wrote:
China grounds Boeing 737 MAX planes after Ethiopian air crash

https://www-m.cnn.com/2019/03/10/africa ... cnn.com%2F


Yes, it’s already been reported in this thread. Multiple times just on this page. I understand you’re a bit excited though.


I quoted the second time as this was CNN themselves. Maybe an American news source would be more believable.


That makes zero sense. Multiple people had already mentioned it. It wasn’t even new information any longer.
-Dave


MAX’d out on MAX threads. If you are starting a thread, and it’s about the MAX - stop. There’s already a thread that covers it.
 
D L X
Posts: 12472
Joined: Thu May 27, 1999 3:30 am

Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 4:10 am

Question: if you were an airline, would you accept delivery if a new 737-Max 8 right now?
 
Flightsimboy
Posts: 1772
Joined: Sun Sep 11, 2005 12:49 pm

Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 4:12 am

PlanesNTrains wrote:
Flightsimboy wrote:
PlanesNTrains wrote:

Yes, it’s already been reported in this thread. Multiple times just on this page. I understand you’re a bit excited though.


I quoted the second time as this was CNN themselves. Maybe an American news source would be more believable.


That makes zero sense. Multiple people had already mentioned it. It wasn’t even new information any longer.


Let's concentrate on the grounding rather than something being quoted twice over.
LAX772LR - "Answer to goofy question:" in response to my question about the B737-MAX8 being grounded. 48 hours later all B737-MAX8 grounded worldwide. Go figure!!
 
impilot
Posts: 232
Joined: Mon Jul 30, 2018 1:38 pm

Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 4:12 am

D L X wrote:
Question: if you were an airline, would you accept delivery if a new 737-Max 8 right now?


No, and I wouldn't fly one either if I were an airline.
 
prebennorholm
Posts: 6956
Joined: Tue Mar 21, 2000 6:25 am

Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 4:13 am

Virtual737 wrote:
At what point would you suggest a grounding of a type is prudent even though the exact cause of accidents is not known? 2 fatal accidents, 3, 10, never?

I'm not going to talk about whether the MAX should be grounded or not. But rather about the principles of grounding.

It isn't so that a plane shall be proved "unsafe" to be grounded.

Grounding is the opposite of "permission to fly".
Permission to fly is granted when it has been proved beyond reasonable doubt that it is safe to fly.
But "proved safe" isn't necessarily the opposite of "proved unsafe".
Any reasonable uncertainty may mean grounding. Or rather, uncertainty may mean that permission to fly is revoked.

I don't have a clue what happened to ET302 - just like everybody else on this thread. I only see that right after takeoff it suffered severe pitch control problems, like JT610, and the end result was an accident much like JT610. The authorities will find out whether there are more similarities. And hopefully they will eliminate all uncertainties.
Always keep your number of landings equal to your number of take-offs
 
TTailedTiger
Posts: 1349
Joined: Sun Aug 26, 2018 5:19 am

Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 4:14 am

D L X wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
Virtual737 wrote:
I'm going to play devil's advocate here and I'm replying to your post because, across the recent 737 Max threads you at least appear to be the most vocal of those criticising any suggestion of a total Max 8 grounding.

I can stop you right there... I'm criticizing only the idiotic idea of grounding with absolutely NO idea what the contributory issues were.

If any correlation or inexplicable contributory forces are recognized, then by all means, ground the aircraft-- but not 0.03seconds after an incident when they don't even know what happened, let alone what caused it to happen.

Lax772lr,
I’ve known you to be a level-headed poster in this site for years and years. But knock it off with calling people idiotic for suggesting grounding. I’m suggesting it too.

We should ground BECAUSE we don’t know why the new designed planes are crashing. We thought we had instituted the fix, and it seems either to have just not worked, cased a new problem, or been too difficult to identify and correct. Or maybe, MCAS isn’t the problem at all.

It is a reasonable response to discuss grounding. (Especially now that nations and airlines are taking exactly that tack.)

How about some civility on a.net?


Or how about the crew not following the prescribed procedure? Why aren't you calling for the grounding of Lion Air and Ethiopian until we can be sure it wasn't crew error?
 
PlanesNTrains
Posts: 9527
Joined: Tue Feb 01, 2005 4:19 pm

Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 4:15 am

D L X wrote:
Question: if you were an airline, would you accept delivery if a new 737-Max 8 right now?


No idea. Outside looking in, I’d accept knowing that I already have X number in my fleet with no problems and knowing that if there is something more to be fixed that Boeing will notify us with a bulletin soon enough and foot the bill as well.

At the same time, if I were preparing to place an order for the MAX, I’d be slipping that press release into my top drawer until this all blows over.
-Dave


MAX’d out on MAX threads. If you are starting a thread, and it’s about the MAX - stop. There’s already a thread that covers it.
 
User avatar
LAX772LR
Posts: 12414
Joined: Sun Nov 09, 2014 11:06 pm

Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 4:16 am

D L X wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
Virtual737 wrote:
I'm going to play devil's advocate here and I'm replying to your post because, across the recent 737 Max threads you at least appear to be the most vocal of those criticising any suggestion of a total Max 8 grounding.

I can stop you right there... I'm criticizing only the idiotic idea of grounding with absolutely NO idea what the contributory issues were.

If any correlation or inexplicable contributory forces are recognized, then by all means, ground the aircraft-- but not 0.03seconds after an incident when they don't even know what happened, let alone what caused it to happen.

Lax772lr,
I’ve known you to be a level-headed poster in this site for years and years. But knock it off with calling people idiotic for suggesting grounding.

If you're going to criticize, at least pay attention.

I'm not calling anyone idiotic, I'm calling some of the ideas (as clearly stated) floated idiotic... because they're exactly that.



mjoelnir wrote:
Not knowing what happened is exactly the reason to ground a type after more than one similar accident.

No not knowing WHY something happened would be a reason to ground, not not knowing WHAT happened.... which is where we are now.
Last edited by LAX772LR on Mon Mar 11, 2019 4:18 am, edited 2 times in total.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
TTailedTiger
Posts: 1349
Joined: Sun Aug 26, 2018 5:19 am

Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 4:17 am

D L X wrote:
Question: if you were an airline, would you accept delivery if a new 737-Max 8 right now?


You would have to unless there is a clause in the contract about x number of crashes involving the type. If not then you are in violation of the contract and may be sued.
 
PlanesNTrains
Posts: 9527
Joined: Tue Feb 01, 2005 4:19 pm

Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 4:21 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
D L X wrote:
Question: if you were an airline, would you accept delivery if a new 737-Max 8 right now?


You would have to unless there is a clause in the contract about x number of crashes involving the type. If not then you are in violation of the contract and may be sued.


I agree in principal, but if Boeing has an ounce of brain left they won’t sue a customer for not taking delivery of an outwardly unsafe plane. I can’t imagine that PR would be helpful right now, nor would it endear [me] to order from them again in the future.
-Dave


MAX’d out on MAX threads. If you are starting a thread, and it’s about the MAX - stop. There’s already a thread that covers it.
 
D L X
Posts: 12472
Joined: Thu May 27, 1999 3:30 am

Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 4:26 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
D L X wrote:
Question: if you were an airline, would you accept delivery if a new 737-Max 8 right now?


You would have to unless there is a clause in the contract about x number of crashes involving the type. If not then you are in violation of the contract and may be sued.

I am a lawyer. I would not be particularly concerned about being sued. In fact, I’d bet on it. But if also be aware that I’d ultimately be keeping my money. You think a jury is going to side with the manufacturer? Do you think a manufacturer would want to deal with the press from suing a customer over this?
 
TTailedTiger
Posts: 1349
Joined: Sun Aug 26, 2018 5:19 am

Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 4:29 am

D L X wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
D L X wrote:
Question: if you were an airline, would you accept delivery if a new 737-Max 8 right now?


You would have to unless there is a clause in the contract about x number of crashes involving the type. If not then you are in violation of the contract and may be sued.

I am a lawyer. I would not be particularly concerned about being sued. In fact, I’d bet on it. But if also be aware that I’d ultimately be keeping my money. You think a jury is going to side with the manufacturer? Do you think a manufacturer would want to deal with the press from suing a customer over this?


It would take a while to get to trial and by then the cause may very well be known. And if the manufacturer is absolved of any wrong doing then there's no way I'm giving you a dime if I'm on the jury. Plus in many states you'll be on the hook for Boeing's legal expenses. You would do better to take delivery and sell the aircraft.

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