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scbriml
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 11:32 am

Aviation737 wrote:
Here are my 2 cents in this. Call me a fanboy all you want, but like what others have said grounding to me is an overreaction. If two 737 NG or two A320 ceo crash 5 months apart from one another now there won't be anyone calling for the grounding of these aircraft at all. So why is this different from what the MAX is currently facing now?


Because the MAX is not yet in service in the vast numbers nor for the length of time that the A320ceo and 737NG have been. Relatively few are in service and they've only been in service for relatively short time. Two somewhat similar fatal crashes killing over 300 people in the same phase of flight in fairly quick succession is causing some people to ask questions. Some have also taken action. It doesn't strike me as particularly unreasonable.
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duboka
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 11:41 am

Aviation737 wrote:
Here are my 2 cents in this. Call me a fanboy all you want, but like what others have said grounding to me is an overreaction. If two 737 NG or two A320 ceo crash 5 months apart from one another now there won't be anyone calling for the grounding of these aircraft at all. So why is this different from what the MAX is currently facing now? The official investigation for both the JT610 and ET302 isn't out yet so we do not know if there is indeed a design flaw with the 737 MAX. We don't even know if the MCAS is indeed the culprit that cause the Lion Air flight to crash. However, if there is indeed a design flaw with the MAX, then I agree that the aircraft should be grounded immediately. So, for now, I will continue to fly on the MAX as I would on an NG even if it the flight that crashed was replaced with an NG.


There is a small difference between grounding a proven A320 or B737NG or a new and unproven B737MAX: The A320 and B737NG are already in service for at least 20 years and the B737MAX is not. The chance that these crashes are because of a design flaw is quite low. On the other side, the MAX is in service for quite a short time and in modern aviation crashes are very rare, so the possibility that these crashes are because of a design flaw is clearly given.
 
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 11:42 am

Flown: A319/320/321,A332/3,A343/346, A380,AT4,AT7,B732/3/4/5/7/8/9,B742/4,B762/763,B772/77W,CR2/7/9/K,ER3/4,E70/75/90/95, F50/70/100,M11,L15,SF3,S20, AR8/1, 142/143,...
 
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par13del
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 11:55 am

alyusuph wrote:
I bet this will prompt Boeing to launch the 797 Program sooner

If as some of us suspect that the 797 will do proof of concept for engineering, production and new vendor concepts for the ultimate NSA 737 replacement a/c, then this tragedy may have just closed the business case.
 
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TheFlyingDisk
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 11:56 am

Why can't we take a middle ground - instead of an outright grounding, just disable the MCAS until it's cleared.

It was done 60 years ago with the Lockheed Electra, so why can't it work now?
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SEPilot
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 12:01 pm

This is absurd. It is well known how to deal with the situation of MCAS malfunction, which is the almost certain cause of the Lion crash, and, from what I have seen, the likely cause of the Ethiopian crash. You flip two switches and disable the system when you encounter excessive automatic trim inputs, which you counter by the trim switch while searching for the shutoff switches. This was announced by Boeing in a bulletin that every MAX pilot should have read. If Ethiopian pilots did not read it then either they or their training department, or both, were criminally negligent.
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par13del
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 12:04 pm

MCAS is an integral part of the a/c flight control system, without it you will have much more hand flying, and since most pilots are now computer operators and these a/c are doing longer and longer flights, it would become an onerous situation.

Easier fix would be to throw a big red led somewhere on the control panel named MCAS that comes on when active, pilots could then deactivate the switches and land ASAP.
 
fsabo
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 12:06 pm

TheFlyingDisk wrote:
Why can't we take a middle ground - instead of an outright grounding, just disable the MCAS until it's cleared.

It was done 60 years ago with the Lockheed Electra, so why can't it work now?


For all we know MCAS was not active and the aircraft crashed because of MCAS being inactive.

Two brand new aircraft of a small fleet crashing within 4 months means two possible things. Either there is something wrong with the MAX or it is simply a statistical fluke. We don't know which one it is yet. Statistical fluke is more likely, but since human lives are at stake it is reasonable to err on the side of caution and ground the MAX until the accident is understood.
 
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 12:11 pm

TTailedTiger wrote:
D L X wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
I can stop you right there... I'm criticizing only the idiotic idea of grounding with absolutely NO idea what the contributory issues were.

If any correlation or inexplicable contributory forces are recognized, then by all means, ground the aircraft-- but not 0.03seconds after an incident when they don't even know what happened, let alone what caused it to happen.

Lax772lr,
I’ve known you to be a level-headed poster in this site for years and years. But knock it off with calling people idiotic for suggesting grounding. I’m suggesting it too.

We should ground BECAUSE we don’t know why the new designed planes are crashing. We thought we had instituted the fix, and it seems either to have just not worked, cased a new problem, or been too difficult to identify and correct. Or maybe, MCAS isn’t the problem at all.

It is a reasonable response to discuss grounding. (Especially now that nations and airlines are taking exactly that tack.)

How about some civility on a.net?


Or how about the crew not following the prescribed procedure? Why aren't you calling for the grounding of Lion Air and Ethiopian until we can be sure it wasn't crew error?



Starting to get use to you, it is always crew error & at best they were suicidal and slammed it in the ground on purpose!
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piedfly
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 12:12 pm

The one MAX in South Africa will remain flying for now.

https://www.iol.co.za/business-report/c ... y-19793994
 
D L X
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 12:13 pm

SEPilot wrote:
This is absurd. It is well known how to deal with the situation of MCAS malfunction, which is the almost certain cause of the Lion crash, and, from what I have seen, the likely cause of the Ethiopian crash. You flip two switches and disable the system when you encounter excessive automatic trim inputs, which you counter by the trim switch while searching for the shutoff switches. This was announced by Boeing in a bulletin that every MAX pilot should have read. If Ethiopian pilots did not read it then either they or their training department, or both, were criminally negligent.

And what if they followed the procedure and it didn’t work?
What if they attempted to follow the procedure but were too busy using all four arms pulling back on the yoke in a dire attempt to pull out of a dive?
What if the fix is easy in principle but difficult in practice?

We are talking about a workaround for a fatal bug. Don’t you think it’s better to fix the bug?
 
kalvado
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 12:15 pm

par13del wrote:
MCAS is an integral part of the a/c flight control system, without it you will have much more hand flying, and since most pilots are now computer operators and these a/c are doing longer and longer flights, it would become an onerous situation.

Easier fix would be to throw a big red led somewhere on the control panel named MCAS that comes on when active, pilots could then deactivate the switches and land ASAP.

Do you happen to know when MCAS actually gets activated before making such statements?
 
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scbriml
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 12:17 pm

SEPilot wrote:
This is absurd. It is well known how to deal with the situation of MCAS malfunction, which is the almost certain cause of the Lion crash, and, from what I have seen, the likely cause of the Ethiopian crash. You flip two switches and disable the system when you encounter excessive automatic trim inputs, which you counter by the trim switch while searching for the shutoff switches. This was announced by Boeing in a bulletin that every MAX pilot should have read. If Ethiopian pilots did not read it then either they or their training department, or both, were criminally negligent.


I'm sure it's easy if that's the only thing going on.

Alternatively, you're in a cramped, noisy cockpit at low altitude fighting other shit that's going wrong with alarms sounding when MCAS decides to kick in unannounced (possibly using erroneous data) to try and save the day by pushing your nose down. And again..... And again..... :scratchchin:
Last edited by scbriml on Mon Mar 11, 2019 12:41 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 12:18 pm

Flying-Tiger wrote:


Royal Air Maroc has become the latest airline to ground all B737MAX aircraft
 
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 12:22 pm

Reuters: India's air safety regulator says it is reviewing Boeing 737 MAX 8 safety issues after Ethiopian Airlines accident
 
MKIAZ
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 12:24 pm

With many posters on this site even expressing that they would be uncomfortable flying on a MAX tomorrow, it seems inevitable that the fleet will be grounded worldwide in the coming days. If China is grounding 100 of them, it's rather hard to explain why the FAA isn't - other than the obvious looking out for Boeing. People aren't going to want to fly them, crews aren't going to want to work them.
And talk about liability. IF there was another crash it would look really bad on all involved - the regulators, the airline, boeing.

Not grounding them may actually depress travel demand as people don't want to book discretionary flights and possibly end up on one.

Not great for AA either, with 14 737NG's still out for the bin issue.
 
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BaconButty
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 12:25 pm

SEPilot wrote:
This is absurd. It is well known how to deal with the situation of MCAS malfunction, which is the almost certain cause of the Lion crash, and, from what I have seen, the likely cause of the Ethiopian crash. You flip two switches and disable the system when you encounter excessive automatic trim inputs, which you counter by the trim switch while searching for the shutoff switches. This was announced by Boeing in a bulletin that every MAX pilot should have read. If Ethiopian pilots did not read it then either they or their training department, or both, were criminally negligent.


So you keep saying. The problem is, the MCAS issue kicks in when one of it's inputs gives erroneous data - either airspeed, AOA or altitude. We know that loss of these parameters, whether by freezing, wasp nests or unremoved tape, can cause crashes by startle effect all on their own. So we have a crew, working their way through, say, a UAS checklist and looking to return to the origin airport. At the point they enter a clean configuration, and already in a potentially difficult situation, they get hit with the trimming. Pulling back on the yoke kills it - temporarily. The switches are (if the pilots on PPrune to be believed) wired the other way round to most switches in the cockpit. It's not hard to see how they could get confused and task saturated.

I'm sure in the cold light of day the ET pilots would know how to deal with runaway MCAS. I'm pretty certain they didn't want to plunge to their deaths. But I would have thought as a pilot yourself you might have more empathy.
Down with that sort of thing!
 
canmau
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 12:26 pm

I don't believe it has yet been posted on this thread but Royal Air Maroc has suspended their B737max flights: https://www.moroccoworldnews.com/2019/0 ... ing-crash/
 
GSPSPOT
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 12:33 pm

Can anyone with firsthand experience flying in the MAX-8 front office chime in here to put things in some kind of perspective?
Last edited by GSPSPOT on Mon Mar 11, 2019 12:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Pt56
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 12:33 pm

MKIAZ wrote:
And talk about liability. IF there was another crash it would look really bad on all involved - the regulators, the airline, boeing.


This +1000, the fleet should be grounded, if not for anything else for this issue.

As its is now a good part of the fleet is already grounded, so better ground the remaining relative few aircraft, and solve any possible issue before it becomes a much greater one.
Last edited by Pt56 on Mon Mar 11, 2019 12:37 pm, edited 2 times in total.
 
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FabDiva
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 12:35 pm

MKIAZ wrote:
With many posters on this site even expressing that they would be uncomfortable flying on a MAX tomorrow, it seems inevitable that the fleet will be grounded worldwide in the coming days. If China is grounding 100 of them, it's rather hard to explain why the FAA isn't - other than the obvious looking out for Boeing. People aren't going to want to fly them, crews aren't going to want to work them.
And talk about liability. IF there was another crash it would look really bad on all involved - the regulators, the airline, boeing.

Not grounding them may actually depress travel demand as people don't want to book discretionary flights and possibly end up on one.

Not great for AA either, with 14 737NG's still out for the bin issue.


Yeah, a US non-avgeek friend of mine is trying to reschedule her Max Flights (and comments on her post says she's not alone)
 
MKIAZ
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 12:42 pm

SEPilot wrote:
This is absurd. It is well known how to deal with the situation of MCAS malfunction, which is the almost certain cause of the Lion crash, and, from what I have seen, the likely cause of the Ethiopian crash. You flip two switches and disable the system when you encounter excessive automatic trim inputs, which you counter by the trim switch while searching for the shutoff switches. This was announced by Boeing in a bulletin that every MAX pilot should have read. If Ethiopian pilots did not read it then either they or their training department, or both, were criminally negligent.


But this isn't how any of it is supposed to work. In this day and age of aviation safety, it is not acceptable to have a plane that will randomly decide to stall itself. End of story. It should not be flying. Developing a procedure to avoid having the plane crash itslef is all well and good - and might work if we're talking about 10 planes waiting for a fix or something. But they kept delivering them. Now with 350 frames out there there's likely 10,000+ weekly flights. Getting into numbers that big you are likely to have some issues. Someone is going to be distracted, or tired, or dealing with weather or just plain make a mistake and flip the wrong switch.

If you take 10,000 pilots and put them in a simulator, then tell them all to flip a certain switch in the cockpit sometime in the flight, do you think that 100% will flip the correct switch? Or do you think one guy might be having a bad day and flip the wrong one - or be distracted by something else in the flight and forget to flip it?

And combine this with the fact that when the intervention is needed is precisely when the plane will be doing strange things, I am not at all surprised that in some cases pilots would react incorrectly.
 
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 12:59 pm

GSPSPOT wrote:
Can anyone with firsthand experience flying in the MAX-8 front office chime in here to put things in some kind of perspective?

The "Runaway Stab" drill and/or the "Unreliable Airspeed" drill, will overcome any control issues with the MCAS.

When the Lion Air issues became apparent, EVERY Air Canada pilot was reminded of that drill, intial and recurrent simulator training include such a scenario and most Captains even include the two drills in their Emergency Review before the first flight of every cycle.

The real issue though, is .... is that enough? Is there something else going on?

When I look at the two accidents and remember that with Lion Air the stick shaker was also sounding because they chose not to fix an ongoing issue with the aircraft. (WTH???) It shouldn't take too long to find out more about the Ethiopian accident.

Remember that aviation is all about managing risk. It can never be eliminated. I am guessing that right now, in most airline boardrooms world wide, that risk is being assessed.
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MrBren
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 1:03 pm

I can't see how people will want to fly on a 737 MAX 8 from now on until it is clearly proved and stated asap that the design is not involved, otherwise damage will be done.
 
Waterbomber2
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 1:04 pm

I don't think that we can't assume that the Ethiopian pilots didn't read the MCAS bulletin and didnt get training about it.
Things seem easy on the ground but would you bet your life on it that flipping the two switches will work?

I remember a story an instructorntold me about a trim malfunction, don' t remember the aircraft type and when it was.
The trim wheel started rotating uncontrollably away following an auto trim malfinction and the pilot tried to stop it and had his entire hand skinned and gushing blood.
They regained control and made it to a safe landing but the pilot was injured for a while.
 
EK77WNH
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 1:06 pm

I hope Boeing doesn't imply that the plane was 'flown wrong' by airlines in 'two third-world countries' who didn't assimilate the training. They would never say as much, but...
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dtw2hyd
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 1:11 pm

A3801000 wrote:
Reuters: India's air safety regulator says it is reviewing Boeing 737 MAX 8 safety issues after Ethiopian Airlines accident


It should read as "India's air safety regulator says it is waiting on instructions from SpiceJet and FAA/EASA".

If they offend SpiceJet they will lose jobs, if they offend FAA they will get a downgrade. They are in a pickle.
 
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 1:15 pm

Add Morocco and Mongolia to the list of countries that have grounded the MAX
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kalvado
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 1:24 pm

EK77WNH wrote:
I hope Boeing doesn't imply that the plane was 'flown wrong' by airlines in 'two third-world countries' who didn't assimilate the training. They would never say as much, but...

They effectively said that to Lion. Groundings are effectively a response to that. If they try the same with ET, I would expect orders being canceled and deliveries refused.
 
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BaconButty
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 1:24 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
A3801000 wrote:
Reuters: India's air safety regulator says it is reviewing Boeing 737 MAX 8 safety issues after Ethiopian Airlines accident


It should read as "India's air safety regulator says it is waiting on instructions from SpiceJet and FAA/EASA".

If they offend SpiceJet they will lose jobs, if they offend FAA they will get a downgrade. They are in a pickle.


They would probably be doing Jet Airways a favour by grounding the Max ...
Down with that sort of thing!
 
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 1:28 pm

MKIAZ wrote:
With many posters on this site even expressing that they would be uncomfortable flying on a MAX tomorrow, it seems inevitable that the fleet will be grounded worldwide in the coming days. If China is grounding 100 of them, it's rather hard to explain why the FAA isn't - other than the obvious looking out for Boeing. People aren't going to want to fly them, crews aren't going to want to work them.
And talk about liability. IF there was another crash it would look really bad on all involved - the regulators, the airline, boeing.

Not grounding them may actually depress travel demand as people don't want to book discretionary flights and possibly end up on one.

Not great for AA either, with 14 737NG's still out for the bin issue.


Call me cynical but if a MAX aircraft came down over Manhattan or London it would be a different story...
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dtw2hyd
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 1:38 pm

BaconButty wrote:
...
They would probably be doing Jet Airways a favour by grounding the Max ...


Delivered 9W leases are already grounded for non-payment. Undelivered ones are painted white, waiting for a new customer.

I guess the conversations between 9W and lessors will be interesting, to say the least.
 
Yossarian22
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 1:39 pm

Arion640 wrote:
MKIAZ wrote:
With many posters on this site even expressing that they would be uncomfortable flying on a MAX tomorrow, it seems inevitable that the fleet will be grounded worldwide in the coming days. If China is grounding 100 of them, it's rather hard to explain why the FAA isn't - other than the obvious looking out for Boeing. People aren't going to want to fly them, crews aren't going to want to work them.
And talk about liability. IF there was another crash it would look really bad on all involved - the regulators, the airline, boeing.

Not grounding them may actually depress travel demand as people don't want to book discretionary flights and possibly end up on one.

Not great for AA either, with 14 737NG's still out for the bin issue.


Call me cynical but if a MAX aircraft came down over Manhattan or London it would be a different story...


But haven’t you heard? It is only developing world airlines that are crashing the Max, which means the Max is fine, as long as it is flown by an American, Canadian, European, Australian, or Japanase airline.
 
Etheereal
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 1:54 pm

Zaf wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
No, these developing countries have crashed numerous 737NG and A320 aircraft. No one called for grounding those fleets.

But those were pilot errors and bad maintenance. The MAX keeps diving and pilots can't do anything about it.

Prime bait material here. Its like you havent even bothered reading how the MCAS trim disable works .. geez.
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Carlos01
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 1:56 pm

Aviation737 wrote:
The official investigation for both the JT610 and ET302 isn't out yet so we do not know if there is indeed a design flaw with the 737 MAX. We don't even know if the MCAS is indeed the culprit that cause the Lion Air flight to crash. However, if there is indeed a design flaw with the MAX, then I agree that the aircraft should be grounded immediately. So, for now, I will continue to fly on the MAX as I would on an NG even if it the flight that crashed was replaced with an NG.


Well the thing really is, whichever authority or airline decides to keep on flying the MAX, and if nothing happens, they can state sounding really cool that "we knew there was no need to overreact". Really tough guys who make sound and informed, wise decisions right? Everyone in the financial side of things are very happy, pad on the back, well done.

Now, just think, what if there will be another one? Another 150+ people die, because of NOT taking the tough decision? Imagine if you were e.g. working for the FAA, I'm sure you'd be having a meeting regarding if an action is needed or not. You decide NO, we don't need to do anything. The blood of those 150+ people would be directly in your hands. You could have saved every single one of them, but you didn't, and now they are all dead. You could even find out that actually someone very special was on board, maybe even someone from your immediate family was on that plane. And you could have stopped it, but you didn't.

And it doesn't stop there. Lawsuits would follow for years to come, 150+ accounts of manslaughter is not a nice entry on anyone's resume. You could end up in jail, in some other countries in front of a firing squad. Some mentally disturbed family members of the victims could make it the last mission of their lives to have their revenge with you (like the mid-air collision above Germany/Swiss border).

Of course it's rather easy now when all those 300+ dead people are just statistics, in some weird countries were human life is anyway worthless, right? Who cares about some Asian or African victims, they are not even real people, you know. Except, that each one of those most likely did have a family, friends and loved ones, whose lives will be destroyed. There are bound to be some unborn children who will never meet their father. Or some father-to-be who will not become a father after all, instead just a bitter, sad widow.

And like has been pointed out already, we are only talking about a handful of planes, it's not like grounding the entire 737 or 320 families worldwide. So to answer the question in the title; yes, they should consider grounding the MAX-series. And right or wrong, I wouldn't have the guts to grant permission for that plane to continue flying. Honestly I don't think that we will see another accident, but the risk is there, and it would be more than my appetite can handle. Someone else probably would think differently, and I don't blame them.
 
mcdu
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 2:05 pm

Yossarian22 wrote:
Arion640 wrote:
MKIAZ wrote:
With many posters on this site even expressing that they would be uncomfortable flying on a MAX tomorrow, it seems inevitable that the fleet will be grounded worldwide in the coming days. If China is grounding 100 of them, it's rather hard to explain why the FAA isn't - other than the obvious looking out for Boeing. People aren't going to want to fly them, crews aren't going to want to work them.
And talk about liability. IF there was another crash it would look really bad on all involved - the regulators, the airline, boeing.

Not grounding them may actually depress travel demand as people don't want to book discretionary flights and possibly end up on one.

Not great for AA either, with 14 737NG's still out for the bin issue.


Call me cynical but if a MAX aircraft came down over Manhattan or London it would be a different story...


But haven’t you heard? It is only developing world airlines that are crashing the Max, which means the Max is fine, as long as it is flown by an American, Canadian, European, Australian, or Japanase airline.


That may very well be true. But maybe not true in the future. In many areas not listed the path to the right seat of a large jet airliner doesn’t require much experience. In the areas you listed the people sitting in the cockpits of those jets have longer periods flying for thousands of hours in various aircraft before they fly a plane like the 737.

In the future we may see the tide turning towards less experience in the cockpits all over the world. Including those countries you listed.

Flying requires experience. You can teach theory and check for rote skills and control manipulation. What is different is the experience to recognize and recover from situations. Those with few hours and experience won’t have the required knowledge base to react correctly.

That is why I believe companies like lion air crash on a regular basis. They have a shallow depth of experience flying both seats in their planes.
 
Yossarian22
Posts: 158
Joined: Wed Feb 21, 2018 7:25 am

Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 2:17 pm

mcdu wrote:
Yossarian22 wrote:
Arion640 wrote:

Call me cynical but if a MAX aircraft came down over Manhattan or London it would be a different story...


But haven’t you heard? It is only developing world airlines that are crashing the Max, which means the Max is fine, as long as it is flown by an American, Canadian, European, Australian, or Japanase airline.


That may very well be true. But maybe not true in the future. In many areas not listed the path to the right seat of a large jet airliner doesn’t require much experience. In the areas you listed the people sitting in the cockpits of those jets have longer periods flying for thousands of hours in various aircraft before they fly a plane like the 737.

In the future we may see the tide turning towards less experience in the cockpits all over the world. Including those countries you listed.

Flying requires experience. You can teach theory and check for rote skills and control manipulation. What is different is the experience to recognize and recover from situations. Those with few hours and experience won’t have the required knowledge base to react correctly.

That is why I believe companies like lion air crash on a regular basis. They have a shallow depth of experience flying both seats in their planes.


I was obviously speaking tongue in cheek, and I do actually agree with you, in that if I am ever a passenger in a difficult situation, I’d much rather be on a Delta jet then an AirAsia jet. But, if there is a minor flaw in the 737 Max, that it is at noticeably increased risk to crash by less experienced pilots, the plane shouldn’t be in the sky.
 
beechnut
Posts: 744
Joined: Wed Apr 21, 2004 12:27 am

Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 2:21 pm

TheFlyingDisk wrote:
Why can't we take a middle ground - instead of an outright grounding, just disable the MCAS until it's cleared.

It was done 60 years ago with the Lockheed Electra, so why can't it work now?


AFAIK, the MAX was certified with MCAS. Without it, it is operating outside of its certification requirements.

The Electra, was a different matter. If memory serves, the aircraft was slapped with a speed/power limitation until a structural fix could be devised. No systems were disabled, the aircraft was still within its certified flight envelope.

Beech
 
estorilm
Posts: 682
Joined: Fri Jan 16, 2009 3:07 am

Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 2:23 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
seb146 wrote:
There is very strong evidence to suggest that Lion Air crash could have been prevented if the Lion Air mechanics had done their jobs...


There isn't. Lion Air operated 133 x 737-200/300/400/800/900s since 1999. Only 11 MAXes.

Do you think in 19 years their AMTs never changed an AoA sensor on a 737, and how many NGs crashed because AMT didn't know how to install the AoA sensor? You cannot blame LN MX for software bugs. There is nothing airline MX can do with software, other than a reboot (or) look for an update.

I am all for wait for the final investigation report philosophy, just don't slip in doubts on any party until such time.

Yup and even so, the entire point of aviation design and engineering is that a single-point failure can't result in a crash. It's more complicated when human factors are involved - but that doesn't give people a free-for-all on designing systems that don't work or don't make sense, and simply saying "well, we trained them! It's not our fault if they didn't disable it before they all died!"

That's NOT historically how people build and design aircraft, and it shouldn't be today either.
 
Elementalism
Posts: 429
Joined: Sat Jun 10, 2017 4:03 am

Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 2:30 pm

Danny wrote:
Two almost identical incidents within short time. Without jumping to conclusions all MAXes should be grounded as a precautionary measure. With China already having their 60 grounded its only circa 240 planes globally. Not a big disruption in the interest of safety.


Outside of two planes crashing. How are these situations identical????
 
Elementalism
Posts: 429
Joined: Sat Jun 10, 2017 4:03 am

Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 2:38 pm

TheFlyingDisk wrote:
Why can't we take a middle ground - instead of an outright grounding, just disable the MCAS until it's cleared.

It was done 60 years ago with the Lockheed Electra, so why can't it work now?


I think the major issue right now. We dont know if MCAS was a reason for this crash. If it was, then I am all on board disabling it until a fix can be found. I'd also be on board with grounding until Boeing comes up with a fix.
 
Virtual737
Posts: 608
Joined: Tue Jul 19, 2016 6:16 am

Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 2:42 pm

Elementalism wrote:
Danny wrote:
Two almost identical incidents within short time. Without jumping to conclusions all MAXes should be grounded as a precautionary measure. With China already having their 60 grounded its only circa 240 planes globally. Not a big disruption in the interest of safety.


Outside of two planes crashing. How are these situations identical????


Two identical models of the same new type, both crashing will full loss shortly after take off and both experiencing control issue beforehand.

How similar do these incidents need to be before you would be happy to start drawing comparisons?
 
D L X
Posts: 12467
Joined: Thu May 27, 1999 3:30 am

Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 2:46 pm

Elementalism wrote:
Outside of two planes crashing. How are these situations identical????

There are at least two whole threads discussing the similarities between the two crashes. One poster has even put up the data showing how the flight information we have available strongly correlates with the MCAS event of the LionAir flight.

Elementalism wrote:
We dont know if MCAS was a reason for this crash. If it was, then I am all on board disabling it until a fix can be found. I'd also be on board with grounding until Boeing comes up with a fix.


The plane is not certified to fly without MCAS.

(That actually begs the question to me: if we have already declared that the plane is not safe without the addition of MCAS, how is "disable MCAS" the required solution?)

An retired American commercial pilot with 30k hours came on MSNBC to speak about the crash. The anchor asked him point blank how he feels about flying on the 737-MAX8, and he was honest:

"Not good. I would feel very uneasy."
Last edited by D L X on Mon Mar 11, 2019 2:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
Elementalism
Posts: 429
Joined: Sat Jun 10, 2017 4:03 am

Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 2:49 pm

Virtual737 wrote:
Elementalism wrote:
Danny wrote:
Two almost identical incidents within short time. Without jumping to conclusions all MAXes should be grounded as a precautionary measure. With China already having their 60 grounded its only circa 240 planes globally. Not a big disruption in the interest of safety.


Outside of two planes crashing. How are these situations identical????


Two identical models of the same new type, both crashing will full loss shortly after take off and both experiencing control issue beforehand.

How similar do these incidents need to be before you would be happy to start drawing comparisons?


When the reason for the crash is the same? Why would you desire to ground an aircraft if one crashes due to crew training not understanding MCAS while another crashed due to an engine failure, fire, terrorism, or weather?The reason for the crashes are totally different.

If MCAS is the reason for this crash then by all means ground the plane until Boeing comes up with a fix.
 
BoeingGuy
Posts: 6311
Joined: Fri Dec 10, 2010 6:01 pm

Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 2:51 pm

smartplane wrote:
BoeingGuy wrote:
PacificBeach wrote:
As an engineer, I find the behaviour of the MCAS design not acceptable at all. You can not have a system that repeatedly tries to dive aircraft especially at low altitude. Cut off switches and training can only be considered as a band aid till a proper fix is implemented.

For instance, you can put instructions to perform hand ventilation when an ICU ventilator fails (i.e. what to do in failure) but not keep shipping faulty ventilator machines that display repeated undesired behaviour.


You make valid points. I leave the details off the Internet, but it’s an extreme corner case failure that causes the issue in the first place and it is being addressed.

So if a solution is being addressed, how many more 'extreme corner case failures' and lives, are Boeing prepared to tolerate, before requesting a global grounding themselves?


First. We don’t know what happened yet. All the experts on A.net are so sure it was MCAS. Second, I can’t answer that. That would be a decision that executives at Boeing would have to make. I’m not them, nor can I speak for them.

Speaking in generalities, not about any specific issue, software changes take time to develop, test, and get regulatory approval before they can get out on a given fleet.
 
D L X
Posts: 12467
Joined: Thu May 27, 1999 3:30 am

Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 2:57 pm

Elementalism wrote:
Why would you desire to ground an aircraft if one crashes due to crew training not understanding MCAS while another crashed due to an engine failure, fire, terrorism, or weather?The reason for the crashes are totally different.

If MCAS is the reason for this crash then by all means ground the plane until Boeing comes up with a fix.


First, NO ONE desires to ground this plane. Grounding the plane would be a very sad day on top of the already sad day, but would be done if it was believed necessary to keep the flying public AND those on the ground safe. (I was just thinking about how lucky the people on the ground have been that these flights have come down in uninhabited places. There aren't many uninhabited places 6 minutes from DCA, ORD, LAX, etc. and topping out at 1000 feet, you're in danger of hitting buildings in many places.)

Second, we do not know that the solution for MCAS failures works or is workable. It is quite possible that the pilots did exactly what Boeing said, or were attempting to do what Boeing said, and still crashed. It should give everyone great pause that a failure mode for the plane has been identified and a subsequent plane still crashed. It is very easy to assume "dumb pilots, didn't follow directions." But the truth may ultimately be that Boeing's quick fix wasn't a fix at all.
 
GRJGeorge
Posts: 362
Joined: Wed Nov 26, 2014 3:37 pm

Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 3:16 pm

When the aviation authority of a country orders the grounding of planes (737 Max in this case)...is this only for airlines operating the type registered in that country, or will they also ban foreign airlines operating the type into/across their country?

If there's suspicion that it might be related and grounding is ordered, can it possibly also be narrowed down to only Max-8s and maybe not -9s...meaning it could be only a -8 issue ?
 
BoeingGuy
Posts: 6311
Joined: Fri Dec 10, 2010 6:01 pm

Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 3:19 pm

D L X wrote:
Elementalism wrote:
Why would you desire to ground an aircraft if one crashes due to crew training not understanding MCAS while another crashed due to an engine failure, fire, terrorism, or weather?The reason for the crashes are totally different.

If MCAS is the reason for this crash then by all means ground the plane until Boeing comes up with a fix.


First, NO ONE desires to ground this plane. Grounding the plane would be a very sad day on top of the already sad day, but would be done if it was believed necessary to keep the flying public AND those on the ground safe. (I was just thinking about how lucky the people on the ground have been that these flights have come down in uninhabited places. There aren't many uninhabited places 6 minutes from DCA, ORD, LAX, etc. and topping out at 1000 feet, you're in danger of hitting buildings in many places.)

Second, we do not know that the solution for MCAS failures works or is workable. It is quite possible that the pilots did exactly what Boeing said, or were attempting to do what Boeing said, and still crashed. It should give everyone great pause that a failure mode for the plane has been identified and a subsequent plane still crashed. It is very easy to assume "dumb pilots, didn't follow directions." But the truth may ultimately be that Boeing's quick fix wasn't a fix at all.


Guys, MCAS doesn’t function when Flaps are not up. Not likely to be up at 1000 feet.

Yeah the Boeing guidance will stop the issue. Putting the Stab Cutout Switches to OFF will stop Stabilizer movement, period. The crew can manually trim if necessary.

Further, there is no quick fix yet.

I know we are all eager to speculate, but there is a lot of misinformation and inaccurate speculation in this thread.

I just heard that at least one industry expert is suspecting a bomb. We’ll find out when the real experts figure out what happened.
 
Virtual737
Posts: 608
Joined: Tue Jul 19, 2016 6:16 am

Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 3:19 pm

Elementalism wrote:
Outside of two planes crashing. How are these situations identical????


Elementalism wrote:
When the reason for the crash is the same? Why would you desire to ground an aircraft if one crashes due to crew training not understanding MCAS while another crashed due to an engine failure, fire, terrorism, or weather?The reason for the crashes are totally different.

If MCAS is the reason for this crash then by all means ground the plane until Boeing comes up with a fix.


I haven't once stated an opinion as to whether the MAX should be grounded. I'm not in a position to do so, but I am in a position to fully respect and understand why an authority might choose to do so.

The cause of this latest crash might well not be MCAS. However, many here of are the opinion (informed or not, they are entitled to that opinion) that grounding the fleet is the best thing to do with 2 full hull losses and 300+ fatalities in 4 months on a new type. Several airlines and several national authorities have now done exactly that. I would give their actions much more weight than I would a random poster on this board, especially one who only acknowledges that the only similarity between the 2 crashes are that.... there were 2 crashes.

Again, these events might have totally different causes, but erring on the side of caution, especially in an industry that constantly tells us how safe it is, should NEVER be though of as stupid, idiotic or any other of the terms that have been used in this thread.
 
ELBOB
Posts: 295
Joined: Sun Jun 21, 2015 6:56 am

Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 3:25 pm

longhauler wrote:
When the Lion Air issues became apparent, EVERY Air Canada pilot was reminded of that drill, intial and recurrent simulator training include such a scenario and most Captains even include the two drills in their Emergency Review before the first flight of every cycle.


Drills are fine for honing how to do something. They are less useful in preparing the trainees in WHEN to do it.

In the sim, ahead of time they know an certain set of scenarios are likely and are ready to execute the corrective actions. On climb-out with alarms blaring, less so.

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