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juliuswong
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 3:29 pm

Malaysia Government Investment arm Khazanah Nasional is asking Malaysia Airlines to re-evaluate the neccessity in buying B737Max 8/10 due to recent two accidents.

Currently Malaysia Airlines has 25 firm + 25 options for B737-8Max. 10/25 options are upgraded to B737-10Max however it is a MoU till today. In the news today also, Malaysia Airlines is looking into financial options for first 8 B737-8Max due for delivery next year. They have written to Boeing to ask for more technical details involving Max family before any decision is made.

The NG fleet is still quite young by their standard. MH is well known to run their fleet til last bits before retiring them (except maybe not A380)
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Seabear
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 3:33 pm

USA TODAY: Travelers panic after Boeing 737 Max 8 crash

https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/f ... 127692002/
 
estorilm
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 3:35 pm

BoeingGuy wrote:
D L X wrote:
Elementalism wrote:
Why would you desire to ground an aircraft if one crashes due to crew training not understanding MCAS while another crashed due to an engine failure, fire, terrorism, or weather?The reason for the crashes are totally different.

If MCAS is the reason for this crash then by all means ground the plane until Boeing comes up with a fix.


First, NO ONE desires to ground this plane. Grounding the plane would be a very sad day on top of the already sad day, but would be done if it was believed necessary to keep the flying public AND those on the ground safe. (I was just thinking about how lucky the people on the ground have been that these flights have come down in uninhabited places. There aren't many uninhabited places 6 minutes from DCA, ORD, LAX, etc. and topping out at 1000 feet, you're in danger of hitting buildings in many places.)

Second, we do not know that the solution for MCAS failures works or is workable. It is quite possible that the pilots did exactly what Boeing said, or were attempting to do what Boeing said, and still crashed. It should give everyone great pause that a failure mode for the plane has been identified and a subsequent plane still crashed. It is very easy to assume "dumb pilots, didn't follow directions." But the truth may ultimately be that Boeing's quick fix wasn't a fix at all.


Guys, MCAS doesn’t function when Flaps are not up. Not likely to be up at 1000 feet.

Yeah the Boeing guidance will stop the issue. Putting the Stab Cutout Switches to OFF will stop Stabilizer movement, period. The crew can manually trim if necessary.

Further, there is no quick fix yet.

I know we are all eager to speculate, but there is a lot of misinformation and inaccurate speculation in this thread.

I just heard that at least one industry expert is suspecting a bomb. We’ll find out when the real experts figure out what happened.

Please reference the crash thread, there's 22 pages of posts explaining that the aircraft didn't crash from 1000'. FR24 data stopped half way into the flight, and it's nearly-unanimous that the aircraft gained substantial altitude and/or speed to create the impact damage seen. Speeds reported were WELL beyond Vfe.

Personally given an airspeed disagree and "control problems" reported over frequency, I'd say they got close to a stall and the different handling tendencies of the engine placement may have caused a severe nose-up. Then again others posted the overlay graphs of the cycles of altitude deviation and it does look similar.

Given that people are talking the "g word" and they have the CVR and FDR, I'd imagine they'll do as much preliminary discovery as possible so they can give operators something to go on.
 
BoeingGuy
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 3:37 pm

estorilm wrote:
BoeingGuy wrote:
D L X wrote:

First, NO ONE desires to ground this plane. Grounding the plane would be a very sad day on top of the already sad day, but would be done if it was believed necessary to keep the flying public AND those on the ground safe. (I was just thinking about how lucky the people on the ground have been that these flights have come down in uninhabited places. There aren't many uninhabited places 6 minutes from DCA, ORD, LAX, etc. and topping out at 1000 feet, you're in danger of hitting buildings in many places.)

Second, we do not know that the solution for MCAS failures works or is workable. It is quite possible that the pilots did exactly what Boeing said, or were attempting to do what Boeing said, and still crashed. It should give everyone great pause that a failure mode for the plane has been identified and a subsequent plane still crashed. It is very easy to assume "dumb pilots, didn't follow directions." But the truth may ultimately be that Boeing's quick fix wasn't a fix at all.


Guys, MCAS doesn’t function when Flaps are not up. Not likely to be up at 1000 feet.

Yeah the Boeing guidance will stop the issue. Putting the Stab Cutout Switches to OFF will stop Stabilizer movement, period. The crew can manually trim if necessary.

Further, there is no quick fix yet.

I know we are all eager to speculate, but there is a lot of misinformation and inaccurate speculation in this thread.

I just heard that at least one industry expert is suspecting a bomb. We’ll find out when the real experts figure out what happened.

Please reference the crash thread, there's 22 pages of posts explaining that the aircraft didn't crash from 1000'. FR24 data stopped half way into the flight, and it's nearly-unanimous that the aircraft gained substantial altitude and/or speed to create the impact damage seen. Speeds reported were WELL beyond Vfe.

Personally given an airspeed disagree and "control problems" reported over frequency, I'd say they got close to a stall and the different handling tendencies of the engine placement may have caused a severe nose-up. Then again others posted the overlay graphs of the cycles of altitude deviation and it does look similar.

Given that people are talking the "g word" and they have the CVR and FDR, I'd imagine they'll do as much preliminary discovery as possible so they can give operators something to go on.


I was specifically responding to the poster and his comment about 1000 feet.

Has it been reported what the ET pilots specifically told ATC? I had not heard that yet.
 
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Erebus
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 3:51 pm

Seabear wrote:
USA TODAY: Travelers panic after Boeing 737 Max 8 crash

https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/f ... 127692002/


Kudos to United for being able to accommodate passenger requests to change flights if they feel uncomfortable. I find the responses from American and Southwest rather distressing.
 
EBiafore99
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 3:56 pm

Erebus wrote:
Seabear wrote:
USA TODAY: Travelers panic after Boeing 737 Max 8 crash

https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/f ... 127692002/


Kudos to United for being able to accommodate passenger requests to change flights if they feel uncomfortable. I find the responses from American and Southwest rather distressing.


+1. WN surprised me. However, AA gave the response I totally expected.
 
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blackbox67
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 4:00 pm

So at the end of the day, it's not on the expert to decide, it's upon the paying passengers who will vote with their feet and stay away from bookings when a "MAX" is involved. That's how it's gonna be.
Any day Boeing or the regulators failed to take the painful but necessary decision, they lost credibility in terms of the "Safety First" doctrine. 346 victims on brand-new aircraft within 4 months should be enough. People's lives should always come before industrial interests.
 
Boof02671
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 4:02 pm

h, 2019

Like 737 MAX Flying on Facebook share on Twitter


APFA Members:

Upon hearing the news yesterday regarding the crash of Ethiopian Airlines flight 302, I immediately contacted Doug Parker and Jill Surdek to request they address critical safety concerns of our Union and our members in flying the 737 Max aircraft. The company issued a general statement via Jetnet.

I contacted management again this morning with safety concerns of our Union and members flying this aircraft. Their current response is they will follow the normal fear of flying procedures. It is important for you to know that if you feel it is unsafe to work the 737 Max, you will not be forced to fly it.

You must contact crew schedule and your flight service manager who will remove you with a Personal Off (PO). While I have requested that the PO be non-chargeable, details must still be worked out. You may make up the flying via the regular methods available.

I am in contact with the leadership of APA, TWU, FAA and NTSB. We are all gathering facts and working together on how to best represent our members in the aftermath of this tragedy. We will keep you updated as information becomes available.


In Unity,


Lori Bassani
APFA National President
 
D L X
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 4:04 pm

Seabear wrote:
USA TODAY: Travelers panic after Boeing 737 Max 8 crash

https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/f ... 127692002/


The word "panic" appears nowhere in that article.


However, it is a good article to read to understand how the travelling public is interfacing with American commercial airlines with respect to this accident.
 
AirFiero
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 4:05 pm

I posted this in the other thread, but why not...

China Grounds 737 MAX 8 (Update)
https://www.avweb.com/eletter/archives/ ... ail#232395
 
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scbriml
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 4:05 pm

longhauler wrote:
The real issue though, is .... is that enough? Is there something else going on?


Or is it that, in certain circumstances, there's too much else going on and the crew is swamped before they even get to considering that MCAS might have activated?

BoeingGuy wrote:
Guys, MCAS doesn’t function when Flaps are not up. Not likely to be up at 1000 feet.


True, but because of the loss of FR24 data due to sparse coverage in rural Ethiopia, we don't know what altitude the plane reached (or its likely flap configuration at that altitude).
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WeatherPilot
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 4:07 pm

FAA Investigating another 737 incident involving a UA 737-900 that declared an emergency for engine trouble while it was descending into Houston on Sunday.

https://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2019/0 ... ouble.html
 
D L X
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 4:15 pm

WeatherPilot wrote:
FAA Investigating another 737 incident involving a UA 737-900 that declared an emergency for engine trouble while it was descending into Houston on Sunday.

https://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2019/0 ... ouble.html

Thats a 737-900.

Not related.
 
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PW100
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 4:22 pm

BoeingGuy wrote:
Guys, MCAS doesn’t function when Flaps are not up. Not likely to be up at 1000 feet.


First, we don't know which altitude the aircraft ultimately reached. FR24 data suggests it reached around 1000 ft AGL by the time FR24 data stopped receiving aircraft data. However the aircraft flew for another 2 - 3 minutes, covering around 25 - 35 km, for which we have noFR24 data. We have no information on the flight profile over that part of the flight. Do you have that info?

Second. FR24 data also suggest that he aircraft reached around 400 kts air speed. Wouldn't the flaps be up at that sort of speeds?
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Noreastshuttle
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 4:30 pm

sldispatcher wrote:
I would think the outstanding pilots at UAL, AAL and WN along with their skilled technical folks would already have picked up on even the slightest concern and requested that it be addressed or brought to someone's attention. I would also believe the folks at the FAA need the opportunity to review any of the hard data as well.

I say let the investigation play out. Let the real experts handle the decisions. Any sudden reaction from a multi-national company travel policy is no less short-sighted than any of the recent knee jerk reactions to social justice causes that were based on emotion and not fact. Thank goodness millennials don't run everything.


And thank goodness the baby boomers are starting to retire and leave the major decision making processes. Im for sure am not interested in being your statistics or a player in your game of probability. Boeing needs to be held to task with this situation. This is their product and responsibility. And then show me the FACTS that they're safe again.
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PW100
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 4:34 pm

blackbox67 wrote:
So at the end of the day, it's not on the expert to decide, it's upon the paying passengers who will vote with their feet and stay away from bookings when a "MAX" is involved. That's how it's gonna be.
Any day Boeing or the regulators failed to take the painful but necessary decision, they lost credibility in terms of the "Safety First" doctrine. 346 victims on brand-new aircraft within 4 months should be enough. People's lives should always come before industrial interests.


This.

Whether we like it or not, when public confidence is lost, regulators and authorities have little choice other than going for full blown grounding.

Basically, this was what ultimately caused infamous the 787 grounding. While most experts in the know felt that grounding was not necessary as sufficient margin remained, the images of that ANA 787 sitting on the runway, with slides deployed, and crash tender foam surrounding the plane, public perception was so strongly affected, that anything else than full blown grounding could not avoided; flying public would simply not accept that, and see anything else just as industry cover up.

I don’t expect it will be any different in this case.
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GRJGeorge
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 4:43 pm

It seems Comair (South Africa) have now voluntarily withdrawn the single brand-new Max from service temporary...no official grounding by SACAA...think more to pressure on social media, as this aircraft was only introduced on scheduled service last week, so had lots of fanfare in media which is still fresh in minds
 
D L X
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 4:51 pm

PW100 wrote:
blackbox67 wrote:
So at the end of the day, it's not on the expert to decide, it's upon the paying passengers who will vote with their feet and stay away from bookings when a "MAX" is involved. That's how it's gonna be.
Any day Boeing or the regulators failed to take the painful but necessary decision, they lost credibility in terms of the "Safety First" doctrine. 346 victims on brand-new aircraft within 4 months should be enough. People's lives should always come before industrial interests.


This.

Whether we like it or not, when public confidence is lost, regulators and authorities have little choice other than going for full blown grounding.

Basically, this was what ultimately caused infamous the 787 grounding. While most experts in the know felt that grounding was not necessary as sufficient margin remained, the images of that ANA 787 sitting on the runway, with slides deployed, and crash tender foam surrounding the plane, public perception was so strongly affected, that anything else than full blown grounding could not avoided; flying public would simply not accept that, and see anything else just as industry cover up.

I don’t expect it will be any different in this case.


I'm actually a tad surprised it hasn't happened already. Several posters here have expressed reservations about flying these planes, and we're a community of aviation geeks. Furthermore, some airline pilots have been asked on the news if they feel safe on these planes, and they have implied that they do not. Unions have asked AA and WN management to do something about the planes and to let their members not fly if they so choose. The media is being (surprisingly) not alarmist about this, but the public is taking notice. I think a grounding should happen, but I think the public perception is the reason why it _will_ happen.

I think your observation regarding the 787 grounding is a good one: people will not feel comfortable until it is grounded. Then when it is ungrounded, people will feel comfortable again.
 
andz
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 5:01 pm

GRJGeorge wrote:
It seems Comair (South Africa) have now voluntarily withdrawn the single brand-new Max from service temporary...no official grounding by SACAA...think more to pressure on social media, as this aircraft was only introduced on scheduled service last week, so had lots of fanfare in media which is still fresh in minds

I flew on this bird yesterday PLZ-JNB about half an hour after I heard about the Ethiopian crash.

They even welcomed us aboard "our brand spanking new Boeing 737 Max"

The safety cards were still generic Boeing, not even BA yet.
After Monday and Tuesday even the calendar says WTF...
 
alan3
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 5:04 pm

Does anyone have stats or an estimate on how many MAX flights there are every day? There are, I believe 350 MAX aircraft in service today. Let's say each one flies at minimum 2 flights daily. That's 4900 MAX flights per week.That means, since the Lion Air crash on rough estimate there have been at least 100,000 MAX take offs carrying over 18 million people.

Compare that to car crash statistics. Not trying to be insensitive, but just put into perspective. Can't we wait for some investigative data before we call for a mass panic, for orders to be cancelled and everyone to rebook their flights even for months in the future? I'm sure findings are going to come very soon Boeing is going to ensure of that.
Last edited by alan3 on Mon Mar 11, 2019 5:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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frigatebird
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 5:06 pm

Erebus wrote:
Seabear wrote:
USA TODAY: Travelers panic after Boeing 737 Max 8 crash

https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/f ... 127692002/


Kudos to United for being able to accommodate passenger requests to change flights if they feel uncomfortable. I find the responses from American and Southwest rather distressing.


TUIFly Netherlands also doesn’t allow travellers who don’t want to fly on one of their MAX-8 free changes or cancellations. Today’s MAX-8 flight to TFS operated without any pax not wanting to board the aircraft. Not surprising, it’s a holiday airline and I bet the majority of the pax probably didn’t even know which aircraft type they were on (and I don’t think you can check on booking TUIFly which type of 737 you will be on).
146,318/19/20/21, AB6,332,333,343,345,346,359,388, 722,732/3/4/5/G/8,9, 742,74E,744,752,762,763, 772,77E,773,77W,788 AT4/7,ATP,CRK,E75/90,F50/70
 
N212R
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 5:09 pm

D L X wrote:
USA TODAY: Travelers panic after Boeing 737 Max 8 crash

The word "panic" appears nowhere in that article.


Thank you for that critical correction. A cogent example of how even one unintentional word (or not) can drive a much larger narrative.
 
aden23
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 5:12 pm

PW100 wrote:
blackbox67 wrote:
Whether we like it or not, when public confidence is lost, regulators and authorities have little choice other than going for full blown grounding.


Precisely!

Southwest is getting eaten alive on social media today for not proactively grounding their MAX aircraft. Whether or not it's logical to ground the aircraft, from a PR and marketing perspective it's already starting to look like they're dragging their feet so they don't hurt profit margins. Combined with the fact that WN is suing their mechanics, and had a passenger partially sucked out the window a few months ago, this has the potential to deeply hurt their brand image.

CNN, Washington Post, USA Today, etc., are all running the MAX story as their headline today. The public has taken notice. United/Dr. Dao incident was 2 years ago, and is still fresh in people's minds. The Ford Pinto debacle was 40+ years ago, and it's still the butt of the joke in the auto industry. Killing passengers in a brand new jet isn't going to leave the public's mind anytime soon, and those companies that fail to act in favor of public safety (or what is perceived to be public safety) are going to end up on the wrong side of this in a very bad way.
 
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seahawk
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 5:12 pm

In the end 2 incidence with unreliable flight data and control problems are enough to draw to consider a connection between 2 events of the same aircraft type. I would not call a grounding necessary but also not unreasonable.
 
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keesje
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 5:14 pm

I guess any MAX pilot is staring at his/her dashboard now & will report anything. Same as smoke in the cabin.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
AEROFAN
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 5:17 pm

D L X wrote:
PW100 wrote:
blackbox67 wrote:
So at the end of the day, it's not on the expert to decide, it's upon the paying passengers who will vote with their feet and stay away from bookings when a "MAX" is involved. That's how it's gonna be.
Any day Boeing or the regulators failed to take the painful but necessary decision, they lost credibility in terms of the "Safety First" doctrine. 346 victims on brand-new aircraft within 4 months should be enough. People's lives should always come before industrial interests.


This.

Whether we like it or not, when public confidence is lost, regulators and authorities have little choice other than going for full blown grounding.

Basically, this was what ultimately caused infamous the 787 grounding. While most experts in the know felt that grounding was not necessary as sufficient margin remained, the images of that ANA 787 sitting on the runway, with slides deployed, and crash tender foam surrounding the plane, public perception was so strongly affected, that anything else than full blown grounding could not avoided; flying public would simply not accept that, and see anything else just as industry cover up.

I don’t expect it will be any different in this case.


I'm actually a tad surprised it hasn't happened already. Several posters here have expressed reservations about flying these planes, and we're a community of aviation geeks. Furthermore, some airline pilots have been asked on the news if they feel safe on these planes, and they have implied that they do not. Unions have asked AA and WN management to do something about the planes and to let their members not fly if they so choose. The media is being (surprisingly) not alarmist about this, but the public is taking notice. I think a grounding should happen, but I think the public perception is the reason why it _will_ happen.

I think your observation regarding the 787 grounding is a good one: people will not feel comfortable until it is grounded. Then when it is ungrounded, people will feel comfortable again.


AS a member of said flying public, I verified with posters here yesterday, to double check the aircraft for my up coming flights with AA. Fortunately, trip it is on a regular 737-8. I absolutely would not have taken flights if they were on any Max.
It is quite well for many people to throw out statistics- what good are statistics when you are falling out of the sky and knowing you are going to die...
Last edited by AEROFAN on Mon Mar 11, 2019 5:40 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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traindoc
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 5:18 pm

Classy respone by United; they will try to accommodate those pax who don’t want to fly on their MAX 9!
 
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Faro
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 5:19 pm

BoeingGuy wrote:
Guys, MCAS doesn’t function when Flaps are not up. Not likely to be up at 1000 feet.



Yes,...but from the below link, it also activates « during step turns with elevated load factors ». Presumably, this wasn’t the case with the ET flight here though.

MCAS is “activated without pilot input” and “commands nose down stabilizer to enhance pitch characteristics during step turns with elevated load factors and during flaps up flight at airspeeds approaching stall.”


https://theaircurrent.com/aviation-safety/what-is-the-boeing-737-max-maneuvering-characteristics-augmentation-system-mcas-jt610/


Faro
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alan3
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 5:21 pm

AC and WS both operate the MAX and neither airline are grounding any of their MAX aircraft. AC's response was to speak in defense of the aircraft as "performing excellently". As of today, Transport Canada, the government regulator, is not calling for the planes to be grounded either.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/ethiopian ... -1.5051005
 
BoeingGuy
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 5:26 pm

Faro wrote:
BoeingGuy wrote:
Guys, MCAS doesn’t function when Flaps are not up. Not likely to be up at 1000 feet.



Yes,...but from the below link, it also activates « during step turns with elevated load factors ». Presumably, this wasn’t the case with the ET flight here though.

MCAS is “activated without pilot input” and “commands nose down stabilizer to enhance pitch characteristics during step turns with elevated load factors and during flaps up flight at airspeeds approaching stall.”


https://theaircurrent.com/aviation-safety/what-is-the-boeing-737-max-maneuvering-characteristics-augmentation-system-mcas-jt610/


Faro


No it doesn’t. MCAS doesn’t function when the Flaps are not up.
 
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Faro
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 5:32 pm

BoeingGuy wrote:
Faro wrote:
BoeingGuy wrote:
Guys, MCAS doesn’t function when Flaps are not up. Not likely to be up at 1000 feet.



Yes,...but from the below link, it also activates « during step turns with elevated load factors ». Presumably, this wasn’t the case with the ET flight here though.

MCAS is “activated without pilot input” and “commands nose down stabilizer to enhance pitch characteristics during step turns with elevated load factors and during flaps up flight at airspeeds approaching stall.”


https://theaircurrent.com/aviation-safety/what-is-the-boeing-737-max-maneuvering-characteristics-augmentation-system-mcas-jt610/


Faro


No it doesn’t. MCAS doesn’t function when the Flaps are not up.


Ok...must be an oversight from the Air Current article...


Faro
The chalice not my son
 
Wags69
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 5:42 pm

Had an interesting conversation with some neighbors this morning. As we live in an area that has both arriving and departing traffic from both MDW and ORD(dependent on pattern), they were worried about one dropping out of the sky into the neighborhood.
I wonder if people under flight paths in other areas share the same sentiment as my neighbors?
 
ltbewr
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 5:43 pm

I think the preliminary readouts by later this week of the recovered FDR and CVR as well as preliminary investigations of the remains of the crash site will be critical if Boeing orders to ground these planes or not. If the ET crash appears to be a MACS issue, then it may be necessary to ground the model until full determinations of flaws in it and how to make the correct changes. It may take a while to see if previous MACS advisories were properly processed by user airlines and you don't want to make an advisory or change that could make things worse. If this is a design issue (tail, engine position) that may be more serious.

At the least, Boeing should and will likely shortly suspend production and deliveries of new MAX series 737's until the cause of recent crashes and incidents are determined.
 
bob75013
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 5:47 pm

The largest Max8 operator in North America and probably the world, WN, has chimed in. The title of the article says it all

"Southwest says it remains 'confident' in its fleet of Boeing planes after Ethiopia crash"

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/south ... 2019-03-11
Last edited by bob75013 on Mon Mar 11, 2019 5:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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seb146
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 5:48 pm

estorilm wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:
seb146 wrote:
There is very strong evidence to suggest that Lion Air crash could have been prevented if the Lion Air mechanics had done their jobs...


There isn't. Lion Air operated 133 x 737-200/300/400/800/900s since 1999. Only 11 MAXes.

Do you think in 19 years their AMTs never changed an AoA sensor on a 737, and how many NGs crashed because AMT didn't know how to install the AoA sensor? You cannot blame LN MX for software bugs. There is nothing airline MX can do with software, other than a reboot (or) look for an update.

I am all for wait for the final investigation report philosophy, just don't slip in doubts on any party until such time.

Yup and even so, the entire point of aviation design and engineering is that a single-point failure can't result in a crash. It's more complicated when human factors are involved - but that doesn't give people a free-for-all on designing systems that don't work or don't make sense, and simply saying "well, we trained them! It's not our fault if they didn't disable it before they all died!"

That's NOT historically how people build and design aircraft, and it shouldn't be today either.


If the MAX is such a piece, why are they not all falling out of the sky? Two accidents in a year.

We all just need to calm down and wait for the report before automatically blaming the MAX.
You bet I'm pumped!!! I just had a green tea!!!
 
kalvado
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 5:51 pm

seb146 wrote:

If the MAX is such a piece, why are they not all falling out of the sky? Two accidents in a year.

We all just need to calm down and wait for the report before automatically blaming the MAX.

2 out of 350 a year is pretty much raining out of the clouds by today's standards. And a good reason to be concerned.
 
EWR762
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 5:52 pm

Let's just think about the responses on this thread if the Bombardier C-Series lost 2 frames out of 350 in such a short time. (Yes, I know it's the A220 now and not as many have been built)

The 737 is a trusted and reliable aircraft type, but the latest updates to the MAX have changed the aircraft in some key ways.

While we do not know the cause of this latest accident, it's much safer to ground them and wait for an explanation or further fixes, if needed. I'm sure everyone is working hard to keep everyone safe.

I'm not an aviation expert, but as a passenger I'll definitely avoid the MAX for the time being. Just my preference; I respect others' decision to fly it.

- EWR762
 
achmafooma
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 5:54 pm

D L X wrote:
Seabear wrote:
USA TODAY: Travelers panic after Boeing 737 Max 8 crash

https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/f ... 127692002/


The word "panic" appears nowhere in that article.


However, it is a good article to read to understand how the travelling public is interfacing with American commercial airlines with respect to this accident.


USA Today renamed the article. The original headline was indeed "Travelers panic after Boeing 737 Max 8 crash." I have the USA Today app on my smartphone and that's the headline that came up when they first fired the news alert. By the time I got around to tapping the link to read it (probably ~1h after it first popped) it had been renamed.

The word "panic" does still appear in the keywords/slug part of the URL: "boeing-737-max-8-ethiopian-airlines-lion-air-southwest-american-travelers-panic".

I'm glad they renamed it. The original headline was really overstating it.
 
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res77W
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 6:01 pm

The DC-10 was grounded after American 191, and multiple other incidents like Turkish 981. I know we’re waiting on investigations to see what happened with both maxes, but maybe this notion is something to consider? Maybe not, and we’ll wait for the investigative findings.

-Rowen
 
D L X
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 6:01 pm

achmafooma wrote:
D L X wrote:
Seabear wrote:
USA TODAY: Travelers panic after Boeing 737 Max 8 crash

https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/f ... 127692002/


The word "panic" appears nowhere in that article.


However, it is a good article to read to understand how the travelling public is interfacing with American commercial airlines with respect to this accident.



USA Today renamed the article. The original headline was indeed "Travelers panic after Boeing 737 Max 8 crash." I have the USA Today app on my smartphone and that's the headline that came up when they first fired the news alert. By the time I got around to tapping the link to read it (probably ~1h after it first popped) it had been renamed.

The word "panic" does still appear in the keywords/slug part of the URL: "boeing-737-max-8-ethiopian-airlines-lion-air-southwest-american-travelers-panic".

I'm glad they renamed it. The original headline was really overstating it.


I suspected that may be the case. Thanks for that clarification.
And you’re right, “panic” overstates it. There is concern, but no “panic.”

And I had just praised the media for taking an evenhanded tone with the circumstances.
 
bob75013
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 6:03 pm

kalvado wrote:
seb146 wrote:

If the MAX is such a piece, why are they not all falling out of the sky? Two accidents in a year.

We all just need to calm down and wait for the report before automatically blaming the MAX.

2 out of 350 a year is pretty much raining out of the clouds by today's standards. And a good reason to be concerned.


Are there many (lots o)f pilot reports of significant difficulty in controlling the aircraft? If so, there is good reason to be concerned. If there are not, what does that mean?
 
bob75013
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 6:06 pm

res77W wrote:
The DC-10 was grounded after American 191, and multiple other incidents like Turkish 981. I know we’re waiting on investigations to see what happened with both maxes, but maybe this notion is something to consider? Maybe not, and we’ll wait for the investigative findings.

-Rowen


To be absolutely accurate, DC10s were grounded 16 days after AA191 crashed, and investigators knew what had happened, and had seen evidence of it on other aircraft.
 
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seb146
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 6:08 pm

bob75013 wrote:
kalvado wrote:
seb146 wrote:

If the MAX is such a piece, why are they not all falling out of the sky? Two accidents in a year.

We all just need to calm down and wait for the report before automatically blaming the MAX.

2 out of 350 a year is pretty much raining out of the clouds by today's standards. And a good reason to be concerned.


Are there many (lots o)f pilot reports of significant difficulty in controlling the aircraft? If so, there is good reason to be concerned. If there are not, what does that mean?


Weren't there reports of problems with the MD-88 before the AS crash off Southern California? Maybe it is something that can be fixed or maybe it is pilot error. Are pilots in Europe and North America reporting similar problems?

Let's just wait and see what the reports say before making any rash decisions.
You bet I'm pumped!!! I just had a green tea!!!
 
D L X
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 6:09 pm

seb146 wrote:
If the MAX is such a piece, why are they not all falling out of the sky? Two accidents in a year.

We all just need to calm down and wait for the report before automatically blaming the MAX.


Seb, this is not a good way to think about accident statistics. It’s like saying “I didn’t get into a car wreck today, so that’s proof that I’m not going to get into car wrecks.” You play the odds.

If I had told you in 2015 that the odds are that 1 out of every 175 of these planes will crash, would you certify the plane?

I have absolute confidence that 10 years down the road, we will look back to find that the MAX stats will be similar to the rest of the 737 fleet over the same span of time, but it’s going to require a full understanding of what’s going wrong here and a fix. Until then, 1 out of every 175 is an utterly unacceptable statistic.
 
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seb146
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 6:17 pm

D L X wrote:
seb146 wrote:
If the MAX is such a piece, why are they not all falling out of the sky? Two accidents in a year.

We all just need to calm down and wait for the report before automatically blaming the MAX.


Seb, this is not a good way to think about accident statistics. It’s like saying “I didn’t get into a car wreck today, so that’s proof that I’m not going to get into car wrecks.” You play the odds.

If I had told you in 2015 that the odds are that 1 out of every 175 of these planes will crash, would you certify the plane?

I have absolute confidence that 10 years down the road, we will look back to find that the MAX stats will be similar to the rest of the 737 fleet over the same span of time, but it’s going to require a full understanding of what’s going wrong here and a fix. Until then, 1 out of every 175 is an utterly unacceptable statistic.


Read my post farther up. We do not have enough information to blame only the MAX.

WN had two incidents involving cracks. Does that make WN an unsafe airline? Is the 737 an unsafe plane?

As I said farther up, it could have been pilot error, it could have been ground crew error, it could have been MAX error. Let's wait for the report.
You bet I'm pumped!!! I just had a green tea!!!
 
bob75013
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 6:18 pm

D L X wrote:
seb146 wrote:
If the MAX is such a piece, why are they not all falling out of the sky? Two accidents in a year.

We all just need to calm down and wait for the report before automatically blaming the MAX.


Seb, this is not a good way to think about accident statistics. It’s like saying “I didn’t get into a car wreck today, so that’s proof that I’m not going to get into car wrecks.” You play the odds.

If I had told you in 2015 that the odds are that 1 out of every 175 of these planes will crash, would you certify the plane?

I have absolute confidence that 10 years down the road, we will look back to find that the MAX stats will be similar to the rest of the 737 fleet over the same span of time, but it’s going to require a full understanding of what’s going wrong here and a fix. Until then, 1 out of every 175 is an utterly unacceptable statistic.


When playing dice, throwing snake eyes is lucky. Do it twice in a row and it's real lucky. Do it three or four times in a row and it's really, really lucky OR an indication that the dice are loaded.

As I asked earlier in the thread, what have pilots reported.? Earlier today WN said it would keep flying the aircraft., If it's pilots had reported problems, the airline would not have done so. So one can assume that the largest MAX8 operator in the world has no firsthand indication of anything.
 
RawSushi
Posts: 89
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 6:23 pm

Different regulators / airlines might also make different decisions based on whether their respective MAX fleets are being equipped with optional equipment that would have helped to prevent crashes such as the Lion Air one. It's not a one size fits all decision. Indonesia made theirs probably knowing that most, if not all, of the MAXs there don't have optional equipment such as the AOA disagree warning installed while for example the MAXs in Singapore do.

https://ca.reuters.com/article/topNews/ ... Z0QL-OCATP
 
747megatop
Posts: 1785
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 6:28 pm

EWR762 wrote:
Let's just think about the responses on this thread if the Bombardier C-Series lost 2 frames out of 350 in such a short time. (Yes, I know it's the A220 now and not as many have been built)

The 737 is a trusted and reliable aircraft type, but the latest updates to the MAX have changed the aircraft in some key ways.

While we do not know the cause of this latest accident, it's much safer to ground them and wait for an explanation or further fixes, if needed. I'm sure everyone is working hard to keep everyone safe.

I'm not an aviation expert, but as a passenger I'll definitely avoid the MAX for the time being. Just my preference; I respect others' decision to fly it.

- EWR762

I emailed out an advisory to my family and friends and it goes like this -

"While commercial aviation is extremely safe; far safer than driving, please avoid flying on the MAX 8 version of the 737 if possible because 2 brand new planes have fallen out of the sky with suspicions that there could be some design issue. While the aviation industry debates it whether the 2 crashes are related and whether it indeed IS a design related issue or something else it, as the old adage of "prevention better than cure" goes....better to be safe than sorry."
 
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smittythepirate
Posts: 203
Joined: Fri Apr 03, 2015 1:08 pm

Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 6:28 pm

D L X wrote:
seb146 wrote:
If the MAX is such a piece, why are they not all falling out of the sky? Two accidents in a year.

We all just need to calm down and wait for the report before automatically blaming the MAX.


Seb, this is not a good way to think about accident statistics. It’s like saying “I didn’t get into a car wreck today, so that’s proof that I’m not going to get into car wrecks.” You play the odds.

If I had told you in 2015 that the odds are that 1 out of every 175 of these planes will crash, would you certify the plane?

I have absolute confidence that 10 years down the road, we will look back to find that the MAX stats will be similar to the rest of the 737 fleet over the same span of time, but it’s going to require a full understanding of what’s going wrong here and a fix. Until then, 1 out of every 175 is an utterly unacceptable statistic.


But going off the 1 out of 175 is a bad way to look at the statistic as these planes had successful flights before hand. If you go off accident rate per flight and just estimating 350 Max aircraft X 365 (average) days in service X 2 flights per day = 255,500 flights. 2 / 255,500 ~ .00078% accident rate.

While this is still a higher percentage than normal you can tell people that you have less than .0008% of getting in an accident on a MAX flight.
www.jbweather.com
 
Pt56
Posts: 58
Joined: Tue Dec 08, 2015 9:57 pm

Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 6:33 pm

".0008% of getting in an accident on a MAX flight" is a huge risk, i would certainly would not bet my life on that risk

for comparison sake the higest risk of dying in a car crash: 1/4,433 is in Montana over en entire year in a single day that must be dvided by 365 days we have a risk of 0,00006%
Last edited by Pt56 on Mon Mar 11, 2019 6:46 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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