afgeneral
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 6:34 pm

> Their current response is they will follow the normal fear of flying procedures. It is important for you to know that if you feel it is unsafe to work the 737 Max, you will not be forced to fly it.

Wait so crews get the liberty to chose whether they fly it or not, whereas passengers lose their tickets if they do not want to fly it?
 
D L X
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 6:36 pm

seb146 wrote:
D L X wrote:
seb146 wrote:
If the MAX is such a piece, why are they not all falling out of the sky? Two accidents in a year.

We all just need to calm down and wait for the report before automatically blaming the MAX.


Seb, this is not a good way to think about accident statistics. It’s like saying “I didn’t get into a car wreck today, so that’s proof that I’m not going to get into car wrecks.” You play the odds.

If I had told you in 2015 that the odds are that 1 out of every 175 of these planes will crash, would you certify the plane?

I have absolute confidence that 10 years down the road, we will look back to find that the MAX stats will be similar to the rest of the 737 fleet over the same span of time, but it’s going to require a full understanding of what’s going wrong here and a fix. Until then, 1 out of every 175 is an utterly unacceptable statistic.


Read my post farther up. We do not have enough information to blame only the MAX.

No. We don't have enough information to make a CONCLUSION --- but many of us believe, reasonably, I might add, that grounding does not require a conclusion. Grounding is a precaution. The emphasis is on "pre."

seb146 wrote:
WN had two incidents involving cracks. Does that make WN an unsafe airline? Is the 737 an unsafe plane?

Whataboutism.

We're talking about the 737-MAX8. It has its own set of statistics.

seb146 wrote:
As I said farther up, it could have been pilot error, it could have been ground crew error, it could have been MAX error. Let's wait for the report.

All three of those scenarios are prevented from recurring in a grounding. Regardless of whether it's a pilot, ground, or plane error, it is being repeated.
 
a350lover
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 6:49 pm

Conclusion of the day;

People just love ACTION.

No matter how likely it is that you end up tragically involved in an air accident. Email friends and family with an “advisory” of the tragic danger they may assume by flying the MAX8 I guess is a bit of “you love action”, don’t you? With all my respects...
 
alan3
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 6:59 pm

bob75013 wrote:
res77W wrote:
The DC-10 was grounded after American 191, and multiple other incidents like Turkish 981. I know we’re waiting on investigations to see what happened with both maxes, but maybe this notion is something to consider? Maybe not, and we’ll wait for the investigative findings.

-Rowen


To be absolutely accurate, DC10s were grounded 16 days after AA191 crashed, and investigators knew what had happened, and had seen evidence of it on other aircraft.


This is a key response. We are barely 24 hours after the crash and I've seen people on this site call for:

All MAX to be grounded
Airlines to cancel all MAX orders on the books.
Passengers to rebook any and all future MAX reservations

Yes, grounding them may be an eventual decision, but let's give at least a day for investigators to find out some key information. There are thousands upon thousands of MAX takeoffs each week, and the 3 largest MAX operators WN, AA and AC are not grounding them at this stage.
Last edited by alan3 on Mon Mar 11, 2019 7:00 pm, edited 3 times in total.
 
TTailedTiger
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 6:59 pm

smittythepirate wrote:
D L X wrote:
seb146 wrote:
If the MAX is such a piece, why are they not all falling out of the sky? Two accidents in a year.

We all just need to calm down and wait for the report before automatically blaming the MAX.


Seb, this is not a good way to think about accident statistics. It’s like saying “I didn’t get into a car wreck today, so that’s proof that I’m not going to get into car wrecks.” You play the odds.

If I had told you in 2015 that the odds are that 1 out of every 175 of these planes will crash, would you certify the plane?

I have absolute confidence that 10 years down the road, we will look back to find that the MAX stats will be similar to the rest of the 737 fleet over the same span of time, but it’s going to require a full understanding of what’s going wrong here and a fix. Until then, 1 out of every 175 is an utterly unacceptable statistic.


But going off the 1 out of 175 is a bad way to look at the statistic as these planes had successful flights before hand. If you go off accident rate per flight and just estimating 350 Max aircraft X 365 (average) days in service X 2 flights per day = 255,500 flights. 2 / 255,500 ~ .00078% accident rate.

While this is still a higher percentage than normal you can tell people that you have less than .0008% of getting in an accident on a MAX flight.


Two flights a day would be incredibly low utilization of a 737.
 
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smittythepirate
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 7:02 pm

Pt56 wrote:
".0008% of getting in an accident on a MAX flight" is a huge risk, i would certainly would not bet my life on that risk

for comparison sake the higest risk of dying in a car crash: 1/4,433 is in Montana over en entire year in a single day that must be dvided by 365 days we have a risk of 0,00006%



Please realize that I didn't list official numbers. It is just going off the estimate of a years worth of flying with 2 flights a day. I don't have a clue what the actual usage is for an entire year, the number may be better or it may be worse depending on the flights per day.
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Zaf
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 7:05 pm

alan3 wrote:
bob75013 wrote:
res77W wrote:
The DC-10 was grounded after American 191, and multiple other incidents like Turkish 981. I know we’re waiting on investigations to see what happened with both maxes, but maybe this notion is something to consider? Maybe not, and we’ll wait for the investigative findings.

-Rowen


To be absolutely accurate, DC10s were grounded 16 days after AA191 crashed, and investigators knew what had happened, and had seen evidence of it on other aircraft.


This is a key response. We are barely 24 hours after the crash and I've seen people on this site call for:

All MAX to be grounded
Airlines to cancel all MAX orders on the books.
Passengers to rebook any and all future MAX reservations

Yes, grounding them may be an eventual decision, but let's give at least a day for investigators to find out some key information. There are thousands upon thousands of MAX takeoffs each week, and the 3 largest MAX operators WN, AA and AC are not grounding them at this stage.


Back in 1979 there was what, one flight per week? Nowadays you have to react faster. Better safe than sorry.
 
Armodeen
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 7:11 pm

mcdu wrote:
Yossarian22 wrote:
Arion640 wrote:

Call me cynical but if a MAX aircraft came down over Manhattan or London it would be a different story...


But haven’t you heard? It is only developing world airlines that are crashing the Max, which means the Max is fine, as long as it is flown by an American, Canadian, European, Australian, or Japanase airline.


That may very well be true. But maybe not true in the future. In many areas not listed the path to the right seat of a large jet airliner doesn’t require much experience. In the areas you listed the people sitting in the cockpits of those jets have longer periods flying for thousands of hours in various aircraft before they fly a plane like the 737.

In the future we may see the tide turning towards less experience in the cockpits all over the world. Including those countries you listed.

Flying requires experience. You can teach theory and check for rote skills and control manipulation. What is different is the experience to recognize and recover from situations. Those with few hours and experience won’t have the required knowledge base to react correctly.

That is why I believe companies like lion air crash on a regular basis. They have a shallow depth of experience flying both seats in their planes.


Is there any actual evidence that hours flown makes somebody safer?

Because the evidence from other fields suggests educations trumps experience when it comes to sound rational decision making.

Many many countries and blue chip airlines have ab initio pathways and they don’t have aircraft falling out of the sky regularly.
 
MD88CLE
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 7:14 pm

a350lover wrote:
Conclusion of the day;

People just love ACTION.

No matter how likely it is that you end up tragically involved in an air accident. Email friends and family with an “advisory” of the tragic danger they may assume by flying the MAX8 I guess is a bit of “you love action”, don’t you? With all my respects...


I think characterizing those in favor of grounding the MAX or who believe that it would be better not to fly on the MAX as merely desiring "ACTION" in their lives is preposterous. It would be like saying that those who do not want the fleet to be grounded just want to live on the edge.
 
nikeherc
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 7:22 pm

I have read a number of statements about the MCAS, which in my understanding, are just plain wrong. MCAS does not work when flaps are extended or when on autopilot. MCAS is intended to make the Max handle like the NG when being hand flown. It is not there to cure some otherwise fatal flaw in the Max. It will not put the plane in a nose down attitude in cruise with the AP on.

I understand the concern that there might be a problem with the Max, and I can even understand that there might be a case for grounding. I cannot accept that the case has been made by people who don’t know how MCAS works, or by people that claim that the two accidents have the same cause without any evidence to that yet developed.

I think it ironic that people who use hyperbolic terms like “the airplane is trying to kill you” are offended by other people casting aspersions on their comments. If you know what you are talking about, do so in a reasoned non-judgemental manner.
DC6 to 777 and most things in between
 
a350lover
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 7:28 pm

MD88CLE wrote:

I think characterizing those in favor of grounding the MAX or who believe that it would be better not to fly on the MAX as merely desiring "ACTION" in their lives is preposterous. It would be like saying that those who do not want the fleet to be grounded just want to live on the edge.


I agree. The thing to me is... do we (first person, plural form) have enough info like to say whether SUCH A THING needs to be done? I think I don't. I am pretty sure the issue is being addressed somehow, and more "action" will follow. That is just my impression. I think it is more about the way we say things. Moderation is sort of oldfashioned these days...
Last edited by a350lover on Mon Mar 11, 2019 7:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
PlanesNTrains
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 7:37 pm

MrBren wrote:
ikarlson wrote:
I will believe when American Airlines, Southwest, Norwegian or Air Canada will ground MAX planes, right now its politics by China to ground MAX.


This is not politics, this is about life and prevent more casualties.



MCTSET wrote:
ikarlson wrote:
I will believe when American Airlines, Southwest, Norwegian or Air Canada will ground MAX planes, right now its politics by China to ground MAX.



How is it politics when the only people they are hurting is their domestic airlines by this grounding.



There can be a lot of moving pieces involved with China grounding the MAX. Pressure on Boeing in future negotiations. Pressure on the US in influencing international business. Preparing for the introduction of their own "superior" C919. There can be any number of reasons why they chose to do so. At the end of the day, though, it's hard to criticize them for being cautious.
-Dave


MAX’d out on MAX threads. If you are starting a thread, and it’s about the MAX - stop. There’s already a thread that covers it.
 
D L X
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 7:37 pm

nikeherc wrote:
I understand the concern that there might be a problem with the Max, and I can even understand that there might be a case for grounding. I cannot accept that the case has been made by people who don’t know how MCAS works, or by people that claim that the two accidents have the same cause without any evidence to that yet developed.


So, you're fine with the message, but you don't like the messengers?
 
nelbert75
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 7:45 pm

As things stand I wouldn't choose to fly on one.
Last edited by nelbert75 on Mon Mar 11, 2019 7:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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Seabear
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 7:45 pm

How to know if you're booked on a 737 MAX 8

https://www.cnn.com/travel/article/737- ... index.html

Will someone please think of the children?!?!? /s
 
birdbrainz
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 7:46 pm

747megatop wrote:
EWR762 wrote:
Let's just think about the responses on this thread if the Bombardier C-Series lost 2 frames out of 350 in such a short time. (Yes, I know it's the A220 now and not as many have been built)

The 737 is a trusted and reliable aircraft type, but the latest updates to the MAX have changed the aircraft in some key ways.

While we do not know the cause of this latest accident, it's much safer to ground them and wait for an explanation or further fixes, if needed. I'm sure everyone is working hard to keep everyone safe.

I'm not an aviation expert, but as a passenger I'll definitely avoid the MAX for the time being. Just my preference; I respect others' decision to fly it.

- EWR762

I emailed out an advisory to my family and friends and it goes like this -

"While commercial aviation is extremely safe; far safer than driving, please avoid flying on the MAX 8 version of the 737 if possible because 2 brand new planes have fallen out of the sky with suspicions that there could be some design issue. While the aviation industry debates it whether the 2 crashes are related and whether it indeed IS a design related issue or something else it, as the old adage of "prevention better than cure" goes....better to be safe than sorry."


Just curious. Are you planning a similar cancellation of advisory if these two accidents had causes other than a design issue?

It's amusing. I'm sure we have a lot of "safety-conscious" types avoiding the MAX after reading stuff like this, and then while driving home texting their friends to do likewise.
A good landing is one you can walk away from. A great landing is if the aircraft can be flown again.
 
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PW100
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 7:50 pm

smittythepirate wrote:
D L X wrote:
seb146 wrote:
If the MAX is such a piece, why are they not all falling out of the sky? Two accidents in a year.

We all just need to calm down and wait for the report before automatically blaming the MAX.


Seb, this is not a good way to think about accident statistics. It’s like saying “I didn’t get into a car wreck today, so that’s proof that I’m not going to get into car wrecks.” You play the odds.

If I had told you in 2015 that the odds are that 1 out of every 175 of these planes will crash, would you certify the plane?

I have absolute confidence that 10 years down the road, we will look back to find that the MAX stats will be similar to the rest of the 737 fleet over the same span of time, but it’s going to require a full understanding of what’s going wrong here and a fix. Until then, 1 out of every 175 is an utterly unacceptable statistic.


But going off the 1 out of 175 is a bad way to look at the statistic as these planes had successful flights before hand. If you go off accident rate per flight and just estimating 350 Max aircraft X 365 (average) days in service X 2 flights per day = 255,500 flights. 2 / 255,500 ~ .00078% accident rate.

While this is still a higher percentage than normal you can tell people that you have less than .0008% of getting in an accident on a MAX flight.


Factor in 150+ deaths on each crash, and you will find your fatality rate is worse than a Bangkok cross-town car journey.
Immigration officer: "What's the purpose of your visit to the USA?" Spotter: "Shooting airliners with my Canon!"
 
smartplane
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 7:57 pm

nikeherc wrote:
I have read a number of statements about the MCAS, which in my understanding, are just plain wrong. MCAS does not work when flaps are extended or when on autopilot. MCAS is intended to make the Max handle like the NG when being hand flown. It is not there to cure some otherwise fatal flaw in the Max. It will not put the plane in a nose down attitude in cruise with the AP on.

NG has the predecessor to MCAS to align handling with the Classic. The Classic used weight distribution to get it's grandfathering i's dotted and t's crossed in respect to the 100/200.

Commonsense dictates grandfathering should expire after so many years / aircraft built, especially given the units delivered.
 
ytz
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 8:31 pm

Arion640 wrote:
MKIAZ wrote:
With many posters on this site even expressing that they would be uncomfortable flying on a MAX tomorrow, it seems inevitable that the fleet will be grounded worldwide in the coming days. If China is grounding 100 of them, it's rather hard to explain why the FAA isn't - other than the obvious looking out for Boeing. People aren't going to want to fly them, crews aren't going to want to work them.
And talk about liability. IF there was another crash it would look really bad on all involved - the regulators, the airline, boeing.

Not grounding them may actually depress travel demand as people don't want to book discretionary flights and possibly end up on one.

Not great for AA either, with 14 737NG's still out for the bin issue.


Call me cynical but if a MAX aircraft came down over Manhattan or London it would be a different story...


Forget Manhattan or London. If the second crash was in the US, I'd bet the FAA would ground the MAX. Having it happen in Africa gives them the fig leaf of plausible deniability. If people at the FAA and EASA aren't sweating, they should be.
 
smartplane
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 8:32 pm

Any MAX operators deleting MAX titles on their fleets?
 
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Faro
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 8:34 pm

smartplane wrote:
NG has the predecessor to MCAS to align handling with the Classic. The Classic used weight distribution to get it's grandfathering i's dotted and t's crossed in respect to the 100/200.

Commonsense dictates grandfathering should expire after so many years / aircraft built, especially given the units delivered.



That I would say is really the nightmare scenario for B and, especially the FAA. Which is not, of course, to say that such scenario is in any way likely at this very early stage of things.

But if there should turn out to be a real, un-patchable, un-tweakable issue with MCAS, the only solution would be to re-do the weight distribution...which is really asking B to re-do the MAX. But IMHO it would really be the FAA which would be the party to blame for such an unthinkable outcome. Let’s hope we never get there...


Faro
The chalice not my son
 
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longhauler
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 8:50 pm

scbriml wrote:
]The real issue though, is .... is that enough? Is there something else going on?

Or is it that, in certain circumstances, there's too much else going on and the crew is swamped before they even get to considering that MCAS might have activated?


These drills have been going for as long as I have been flying transport aircraft, starting with the "rudder hardover" issues on the 737. The 737 was not grounded then as a drill was devised that could safely maintain control of the aircraft even though the actual cause of the rudder hardover had not yet been discovered.

Today there are dozens of drills that pilots must know, from things like windshear recovery, through terrain avoidance to the more advanced ones like "Abnormal V Alpha Prot". All are required to be known verbatim and are constantly tested.

But ... is that enough? Is an interesting question. There was certainly a lot going on in the cockpit of the Lion Air 737 as that airplane should have been grounded before it took off. It actually flew the inbound leg with the stick shaker sounding. Then ... they dispatched it further!

People on here are saying that if the MCAS was the cause of the Ethiopian crash, then the 737 should be grounded. I actually think the opposite. Boeing has devised a way to maintain control of the aircraft. First question should be, why didn't they use it? But ... what if it wasn't the MCAS and no cause can be easily discovered. Then, hell yeah, the 737 should be grounded as clearly there is an undiscovered issue with the aircraft.
Just because I stopped arguing, doesn't mean I think you are right. It just means I gave up!
 
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CitizenJustin
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 8:56 pm

seb146 wrote:
D L X wrote:
seb146 wrote:
If the MAX is such a piece, why are they not all falling out of the sky? Two accidents in a year.

We all just need to calm down and wait for the report before automatically blaming the MAX.


Seb, this is not a good way to think about accident statistics. It’s like saying “I didn’t get into a car wreck today, so that’s proof that I’m not going to get into car wrecks.” You play the odds.

If I had told you in 2015 that the odds are that 1 out of every 175 of these planes will crash, would you certify the plane?

I have absolute confidence that 10 years down the road, we will look back to find that the MAX stats will be similar to the rest of the 737 fleet over the same span of time, but it’s going to require a full understanding of what’s going wrong here and a fix. Until then, 1 out of every 175 is an utterly unacceptable statistic.


Read my post farther up. We do not have enough information to blame only the MAX.

WN had two incidents involving cracks. Does that make WN an unsafe airline? Is the 737 an unsafe plane?

As I said farther up, it could have been pilot error, it could have been ground crew error, it could have been MAX error. Let's wait for the report.



I agree with you Seb. Two US airlines have already said they’re confident in the safety of their MAX fleet. I’m more inclined to listen to experts than the hysterics going on here. I’m looking forward to my next flight on the MAX. Considering the amount of posters who’ve quickly decided it’s a death trap, maybe I’ll have the plane to myself. :-)
 
johns624
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 9:02 pm

I've heard that the FO had only 200 hours. Was he the one flying?
 
konrad
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 9:05 pm

Faro wrote:
smartplane wrote:
But if there should turn out to be a real, un-patchable, un-tweakable issue with MCAS, the only solution would be to re-do the weight distribution...which is really asking B to re-do the MAX. But IMHO it would really be the FAA which would be the party to blame for such an unthinkable outcome. Let’s hope we never get there...


Speaking of weight distribution, I would imagine that it is different with MAX 9 and MAX 10 models. Due to the shortest fuselage the issue of wrong weight distribution due to the more forward mounted (and larger) engines should affect mostly the MAX 8 (and 7) models. Is this correct?
 
D L X
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 9:17 pm

longhauler wrote:
These drills have been going for as long as I have been flying transport aircraft, starting with the "rudder hardover" issues on the 737. The 737 was not grounded then as a drill was devised that could safely maintain control of the aircraft even though the actual cause of the rudder hardover had not yet been discovered.


If I am remembering correctly, the FAA did not ground the 737 because of the economic impact grounding the 733/4 would have created. At the time, these were the workhorses of the American fleet, making up the majority of the US Air and United fleet, at the time. Taking them out of the sky would have put US, UA, and others on the economic ropes while simultaneously sending hundreds of thousands of travelers onto the freeways.

The FAA has always held a dual role, and those two parts are often in conflict: 1) increase air safety and 2) increase air transport economics. In that case, #2 outweighed #1.

longhauler wrote:
But ... is that enough? Is an interesting question. There was certainly a lot going on in the cockpit of the Lion Air 737 as that airplane should have been grounded before it took off. It actually flew the inbound leg with the stick shaker sounding. Then ... they dispatched it further!

Utterly heartbreaking.

longhauler wrote:
People on here are saying that if the MCAS was the cause of the Ethiopian crash, then the 737 should be grounded. I actually think the opposite. Boeing has devised a way to maintain control of the aircraft. First question should be, why didn't they use it? But ... what if it wasn't the MCAS and no cause can be easily discovered. Then, hell yeah, the 737 should be grounded as clearly there is an undiscovered issue with the aircraft.


There's a couple more MCAS related possibilities, one being "what if the pilots performed the Boeing prescribed MCAS procedure, and still crashed?" Or what about "there was so much going on that the pilots were for some reason unable to perform the MCAS procedure?" Or what if "turning MCAS off caused the unstability that MCAS is supposed to combat, and they crashed?"

I'm not a pilot, just an engineer/lawyer. I love your knowledgeable posts, so I'm curious as to what you think.
CitizenJustin wrote:
I’m looking forward to my next flight on the MAX. Considering the amount of posters who’ve quickly decided it’s a death trap, maybe I’ll have the plane to myself.

I wish you safe travels, but I won't be one of those flying with you until we have a handle on what probably caused these accidents.

BoeingGuy wrote:
No they don’t. Your comment is bizarre and offensive.


On this, we are on the exact same page.
 
BoeingGuy
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 9:21 pm

seb146 wrote:
D L X wrote:
seb146 wrote:
If the MAX is such a piece, why are they not all falling out of the sky? Two accidents in a year.

We all just need to calm down and wait for the report before automatically blaming the MAX.


Seb, this is not a good way to think about accident statistics. It’s like saying “I didn’t get into a car wreck today, so that’s proof that I’m not going to get into car wrecks.” You play the odds.

If I had told you in 2015 that the odds are that 1 out of every 175 of these planes will crash, would you certify the plane?

I have absolute confidence that 10 years down the road, we will look back to find that the MAX stats will be similar to the rest of the 737 fleet over the same span of time, but it’s going to require a full understanding of what’s going wrong here and a fix. Until then, 1 out of every 175 is an utterly unacceptable statistic.


Read my post farther up. We do not have enough information to blame only the MAX.

WN had two incidents involving cracks. Does that make WN an unsafe airline? Is the 737 an unsafe plane?

As I said farther up, it could have been pilot error, it could have been ground crew error, it could have been MAX error. Let's wait for the report.


Thanks for two of the more intelligent posts in this thread.

It is completely possible that MCAS has nothing to do with it. It could have been a bomb for all we know yet. In fact, at least one industry expert and one witness believe that very thing.

Yet a lot of “experts” are creating a lot of sensationalism. I’ll look forward to seeing what the real experts determine what caused it. If it were an airplane issue, it will be swiftly fixed.
 
ytz
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 9:27 pm

Faro wrote:
smartplane wrote:
NG has the predecessor to MCAS to align handling with the Classic. The Classic used weight distribution to get it's grandfathering i's dotted and t's crossed in respect to the 100/200.

Commonsense dictates grandfathering should expire after so many years / aircraft built, especially given the units delivered.



That I would say is really the nightmare scenario for B and, especially the FAA. Which is not, of course, to say that such scenario is in any way likely at this very early stage of things.

But if there should turn out to be a real, un-patchable, un-tweakable issue with MCAS, the only solution would be to re-do the weight distribution...which is really asking B to re-do the MAX. But IMHO it would really be the FAA which would be the party to blame for such an unthinkable outcome. Let’s hope we never get there...


Faro


Not just the FAA. Other authorities like EASA signed off too.
 
UpNAWAy
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 9:32 pm

The APA has just told Flight Attendants they do not have to work the MAX. Expect this to cause a defacto grounding in the US.
 
BoeingGuy
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 9:35 pm

D L X wrote:
longhauler wrote:
These drills have been going for as long as I have been flying transport aircraft, starting with the "rudder hardover" issues on the 737. The 737 was not grounded then as a drill was devised that could safely maintain control of the aircraft even though the actual cause of the rudder hardover had not yet been discovered.


If I am remembering correctly, the FAA did not ground the 737 because of the economic impact grounding the 733/4 would have created. At the time, these were the workhorses of the American fleet, making up the majority of the US Air and United fleet, at the time. Taking them out of the sky would have put US, UA, and others on the economic ropes while simultaneously sending hundreds of thousands of travelers onto the freeways.

The FAA has always held a dual role, and those two parts are often in conflict: 1) increase air safety and 2) increase air transport economics. In that case, #2 outweighed #1.

longhauler wrote:
But ... is that enough? Is an interesting question. There was certainly a lot going on in the cockpit of the Lion Air 737 as that airplane should have been grounded before it took off. It actually flew the inbound leg with the stick shaker sounding. Then ... they dispatched it further!

Utterly heartbreaking.

longhauler wrote:
People on here are saying that if the MCAS was the cause of the Ethiopian crash, then the 737 should be grounded. I actually think the opposite. Boeing has devised a way to maintain control of the aircraft. First question should be, why didn't they use it? But ... what if it wasn't the MCAS and no cause can be easily discovered. Then, hell yeah, the 737 should be grounded as clearly there is an undiscovered issue with the aircraft.


There's a couple more MCAS related possibilities, one being "what if the pilots performed the Boeing prescribed MCAS procedure, and still crashed?" Or what about "there was so much going on that the pilots were for some reason unable to perform the MCAS procedure?" Or what if "turning MCAS off caused the unstability that MCAS is supposed to combat, and they crashed?"

I'm not a pilot, just an engineer/lawyer. I love your knowledgeable posts, so I'm curious as to what you think.
CitizenJustin wrote:
I’m looking forward to my next flight on the MAX. Considering the amount of posters who’ve quickly decided it’s a death trap, maybe I’ll have the plane to myself.

I wish you safe travels, but I won't be one of those flying with you until we have a handle on what probably caused these accidents.

BoeingGuy wrote:
No they don’t. Your comment is bizarre and offensive.


On this, we are on the exact same page.


Glad we agree on something.

There’s no such thing as an MCAS procedure. It’s the Runaway Stabilizer Trim procedure. Every Boeing model has it. You put the Stab Cutout Switches to OFF. There are easy to reach on the Captain’s side near the thrust levers.

Any Captain on any Boeing model has been trained to do this by memory.

On the 737 they could trim using the manual wheel. Other models have Alternate Trim Switches.

My money is on this being something completely different and an unfortunate coincident. I would have no problem getting on a 737-8 right now.
 
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longhauler
Posts: 6245
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 9:39 pm

D L X wrote:
If I am remembering correctly, the FAA did not ground the 737 because of the economic impact grounding the 733/4 would have created. At the time, these were the workhorses of the American fleet, making up the majority of the US Air and United fleet, at the time. Taking them out of the sky would have put US, UA, and others on the economic ropes while simultaneously sending hundreds of thousands of travelers onto the freeways.

The FAA has always held a dual role, and those two parts are often in conflict: 1) increase air safety and 2) increase air transport economics. In that case, #2 outweighed #1.

There's a couple more MCAS related possibilities, one being "what if the pilots performed the Boeing prescribed MCAS procedure, and still crashed?" Or what about "there was so much going on that the pilots were for some reason unable to perform the MCAS procedure?" Or what if "turning MCAS off caused the unstability that MCAS is supposed to combat, and they crashed?"

Maybe I am naive, but after the DC-10 scandal, I would be surprised if any aircraft was cleared to fly when those higher up were aware it was at a higher (unacceptable) risk. Even with the financial impact on the airlines and inconvenience to the flying public.

Can you imagine the lawsuits if that were the case.

But you raise some valid points about the MCAS. The drill is actually the "Runaway Stab" drill, it's pretty basic. Among other things, you disconnect any motor control on the Horizontal Stabilizer. It just means you have to manually trim the aircraft to landing.

I don't fly the 737 any more, but I have asked many on our internal forum about it and that all say the same thing. They have encountered no problems in the simulator when the abnormality was practised. (And to date, everyone where I fly that flies the 737 has done this exercise in the simulator).

But that you are an engineer, think about this ... the simulator only simulates known issues. If is something unknown, simulator practise wont help. That is why I am kind of hoping it is an MCAS issue, as the fix would be quicker and easier.

For fun, google the "pitch up, roll off" issues on early 737s. For years, officials denied the problem existed as it never appeared in the simulator. That is until an engineer raised the question, if it is unknown, how can it be programmed into the simulator? For interest, the Air Florida 737-200 Basic that crashed on takeoff from DCA was in this condition when it hit the bridge. The Kruger flaps were contaminated with snow causing the condition. (That they were incorrectly in climb thrust and not take-off thrust didn't help).
Just because I stopped arguing, doesn't mean I think you are right. It just means I gave up!
 
denkcflyer
Posts: 27
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 9:42 pm

Based on the information we have, or rather, the lack thereof, I will not be flying the max till we have answers on the cause of both crashes. No that does not make me idiotic or superstitious. I would prefer to err on the side of caution when it comes to my safety and the safety of my loved ones. Whether or not these planes should be grounded, I will leave that up to the professionals to decide. But it's pretty clear many folks will be taking a stance one way or another regardless of what the FAA says.
 
bob75013
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 10:00 pm

UpNAWAy wrote:
The APA has just told Flight Attendants they do not have to work the MAX. Expect this to cause a defacto grounding in the US.


Really? Please explain what the Allied PILOTS Association has to do with FAs. What about at WN. There's no APA there.
 
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anfromme
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 10:12 pm

smittythepirate wrote:
But going off the 1 out of 175 is a bad way to look at the statistic as these planes had successful flights before hand. If you go off accident rate per flight and just estimating 350 Max aircraft X 365 (average) days in service X 2 flights per day = 255,500 flights. 2 / 255,500 ~ .00078% accident rate.


Except that's wrong because more than half of the current 350-strong worldwide MAX fleet has only been delivered between July 2018 and end of January 2019, i.e. those ~180 planes are half a year old or younger, i.e. the assumption of 365 days in service on average for the whole fleet doesn't work out.

You can download the delivery overview including delivery dates from Boeing's website (up to end of Jan 2019) and go all Excel on it, i.e. it's fairly easy to calculate exactly how many days the whole fleet has had in service. It's nowhere near 365 days on average - we're looking at 243 days instead, and that's assuming each plane went straight into revenue service the day after delivery. If we're assuming 5 days between delivery and first revenue flight, we're only looking at an average of 238 in service days on average for the whole fleet.
At two flights a day, this gives us between 167,000 and 170,000 flights total, i.e. an accident rate of 0.0011% or 0.0012%.

The thing with statistics, though, is that it's really important if two occurences are related, otherwise your numbers don't make much sense at all.
To illustrate - if you have a big box with 20 pairs of socks in them, 19 black, 1 red, and you drew the red one on one of your attempts - your chances of drawing red again are impacted significantly by whether or not a pair once drawn gets put aside - or back into the box.

So if it turns out there is a connection between JT610 and ET302, the 0.001% number may be quite relevant for predicting overall fleet safety.
If there isn't a connection, though, the number would be more or less meaningless, based on unlucky coincidences that happened to a relatively small worldwide fleet.

At this point all you can say is that it's extremely unusual to have such a high accident rate with a new type in a relatively short period of time with some surrounding circumstances appearing very similar.

Personally, I think it's fairly tricky to decide at this point.
I can completely understand if some airlines/authorities want to err on the side of caution. This has gained huge media attention and especially while the cause is unknown and a link between the two accidents possible, they feel grounding is the best option. And yes, public trust in safety is a concern here. And sometimes there aren't only rational factors at play there.

Personally, I'd be nervous getting on a MAX tomorrow, and it's rare for me to say that. I got on an Air Asia A320 shortly after QZ8501 (although in fairness I was on Air Asia Thai, not Indonesia), and I got onto 737s when they had the rudder issues. Heck, until two days ago I wouldn't have had any issues getting onto a MAX, because with MCAS (stupid as its single-source-design is) a known quantity, I would have thought that another nosedive into the sea/ground was unlikely and that we're basically back at the level of confidence we've grown to expect from the previous generations of 737s.
But with the at least superficial similarities to ET302, where it's tricky to simply go "oh, sh*tty weather" or "oh, sh*tty airline" (the latter would have worked with JT a bit better) I'd be nervous, to say the least.

Maybe it's that my personal perception has changed (I'm at a different stage in life and all that), but right now I'd really prefer to at least get some preliminary information about how superficial or not-that-superficial the similarities actually are.
42
 
747megatop
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 10:17 pm

birdbrainz wrote:
747megatop wrote:
EWR762 wrote:
Let's just think about the responses on this thread if the Bombardier C-Series lost 2 frames out of 350 in such a short time. (Yes, I know it's the A220 now and not as many have been built)

The 737 is a trusted and reliable aircraft type, but the latest updates to the MAX have changed the aircraft in some key ways.

While we do not know the cause of this latest accident, it's much safer to ground them and wait for an explanation or further fixes, if needed. I'm sure everyone is working hard to keep everyone safe.

I'm not an aviation expert, but as a passenger I'll definitely avoid the MAX for the time being. Just my preference; I respect others' decision to fly it.

- EWR762

I emailed out an advisory to my family and friends and it goes like this -

"While commercial aviation is extremely safe; far safer than driving, please avoid flying on the MAX 8 version of the 737 if possible because 2 brand new planes have fallen out of the sky with suspicions that there could be some design issue. While the aviation industry debates it whether the 2 crashes are related and whether it indeed IS a design related issue or something else it, as the old adage of "prevention better than cure" goes....better to be safe than sorry."


Just curious. Are you planning a similar cancellation of advisory if these two accidents had causes other than a design issue?

It's amusing. I'm sure we have a lot of "safety-conscious" types avoiding the MAX after reading stuff like this, and then while driving home texting their friends to do likewise.

Well, do you text and drive? Then simple answer - DON'T.
 
Menelaos
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 10:19 pm

I find it very surprising how many people keep repeating the mantra "we don't know what the problem is, so there's no reason to ground the type". It's no surprise that grounding can happen for two reasons:
a. Because you have identified a particular and very serious (ie. potentially, with high likelihood, catastrophic) flaw in the aircraft
b. Because you have seen statistically significant catastrophic failures and you want to hold off UNTIL the reason of those failures has been identified

Obviously there's no point grounding airplanes left and right. But we are the ones chanting how airplane crashes are extremely rare. That in itself makes a) two crashes b) of a new type c) with less than 350 aircraft in the sky d) in 6 months, an EXTREMELY unlikely occasion. How many new aircraft do you remember in the last 30 years having similar statistics? Of course, both crashes might be completely unrelated to the aircraft after all, but I think it's pretty obvious that IF early data points does not disprove aircraft fault, it's a very valid route to ground the fleet until there's certainty that the type is overall airworthy.
Last edited by Menelaos on Mon Mar 11, 2019 10:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
bgm
Posts: 2033
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 10:19 pm

BoeingGuy wrote:
If it were an airplane issue, it will be swiftly fixed.


Unfortunately, that swift fix isn't going to bring back the lives of the 300+ people who perished in the 737 MAX within the past 6 months.

Temporarily grounding the fleet until they've figured out what the issue is would be the safer option. Why put more innocent lives in jeopardy until we know the cause? Human lives are more important than airline profits, right?
████ ███ █ ███████ ██ █ █████ ██ ████ [redacted]
 
BoeingGuy
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 10:34 pm

bgm wrote:
BoeingGuy wrote:
If it were an airplane issue, it will be swiftly fixed.


Unfortunately, that swift fix isn't going to bring back the lives of the 300+ people who perished in the 737 MAX within the past 6 months.

Temporarily grounding the fleet until they've figured out what the issue is would be the safer option. Why put more innocent lives in jeopardy until we know the cause? Human lives are more important than airline profits, right?


How do know the ET wasn’t a bomb or something completely unrelated to the airplane design?
 
bob75013
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 10:39 pm

BoeingGuy wrote:
bgm wrote:
BoeingGuy wrote:
If it were an airplane issue, it will be swiftly fixed.


Unfortunately, that swift fix isn't going to bring back the lives of the 300+ people who perished in the 737 MAX within the past 6 months.

Temporarily grounding the fleet until they've figured out what the issue is would be the safer option. Why put more innocent lives in jeopardy until we know the cause? Human lives are more important than airline profits, right?


How do know the ET wasn’t a bomb or something completely unrelated to the airplane design?


Reuters reports that people on the ground (admitedly not always a good source of information) said that things were falling from the plane before it crashed.
 
SJPBR
Posts: 92
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 10:44 pm

G3 grounded Max also!
 
PDX88
Posts: 417
Joined: Sat Mar 24, 2012 2:17 am

Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 10:46 pm

BoeingGuy wrote:
bgm wrote:
BoeingGuy wrote:
If it were an airplane issue, it will be swiftly fixed.


Unfortunately, that swift fix isn't going to bring back the lives of the 300+ people who perished in the 737 MAX within the past 6 months.

Temporarily grounding the fleet until they've figured out what the issue is would be the safer option. Why put more innocent lives in jeopardy until we know the cause? Human lives are more important than airline profits, right?


How do know the ET wasn’t a bomb or something completely unrelated to the airplane design?


How do we know it's not a reoccurring issue and all other MAX risk suffering the same fate?

With the Lion Air crash, the question was "how did this happen?" With the Ethiopian crash, the question became "will this keep happening?" With two brand new aircraft crashing in similar fashion (although yes, we don't know the cause yet), you can't blame people for questioning the safety of the MAX and whether it should continue to fly until we either know the crashes are unrelated or a flaw is found. If there is indeed a related flaw which is the determined cause for both crashes, it's going to look bad for Boeing, the FAA, and airlines who continued to fly the MAX for months when their safety was in question.
 
BoeingGuy
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 10:53 pm

bob75013 wrote:
BoeingGuy wrote:
bgm wrote:

Unfortunately, that swift fix isn't going to bring back the lives of the 300+ people who perished in the 737 MAX within the past 6 months.

Temporarily grounding the fleet until they've figured out what the issue is would be the safer option. Why put more innocent lives in jeopardy until we know the cause? Human lives are more important than airline profits, right?


How do know the ET wasn’t a bomb or something completely unrelated to the airplane design?


Reuters reports that people on the ground (admitedly not always a good source of information) said that things were falling from the plane before it crashed.


Another news agency reported at least one witness said the airplane was on fire before it crashed.

I’ll wait to see what the experts learn.
 
bgm
Posts: 2033
Joined: Fri Sep 11, 2009 9:37 am

Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 10:56 pm

BoeingGuy wrote:
bgm wrote:
BoeingGuy wrote:
If it were an airplane issue, it will be swiftly fixed.


Unfortunately, that swift fix isn't going to bring back the lives of the 300+ people who perished in the 737 MAX within the past 6 months.

Temporarily grounding the fleet until they've figured out what the issue is would be the safer option. Why put more innocent lives in jeopardy until we know the cause? Human lives are more important than airline profits, right?


How do know the ET wasn’t a bomb or something completely unrelated to the airplane design?


That's the thing. We don't know. But, until we do why should innocent people's lives be put in jeopardy? To protect Boeing's reputation/profits? To minimize potential costs for airlines? :shakehead:
████ ███ █ ███████ ██ █ █████ ██ ████ [redacted]
 
ytz
Posts: 3529
Joined: Thu Jun 25, 2009 12:31 am

Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 11:07 pm

BoeingGuy wrote:
bgm wrote:
BoeingGuy wrote:
If it were an airplane issue, it will be swiftly fixed.


Unfortunately, that swift fix isn't going to bring back the lives of the 300+ people who perished in the 737 MAX within the past 6 months.

Temporarily grounding the fleet until they've figured out what the issue is would be the safer option. Why put more innocent lives in jeopardy until we know the cause? Human lives are more important than airline profits, right?


How do know the ET wasn’t a bomb or something completely unrelated to the airplane design?


How do we know it wasn't aliens or snakes on the plane?

Please.....

The context looks similar enough that precaution is warranted until Boeing and the regulators can at least rule out that the faults weren't necessarily the same. Safety should come before everything else.

And, heaven forbid, if another crash happens in the next few months, and precaution wasn't taken, it's going to look far worse on Boeing, the FAA, and every other regulator who signed off.

Let's not forget that EASA initially insisted on full type training for crew and rolled over on that one to a 3 hr type conversion course. Gotta wonder if we can be confident the regulators are putting safety or OEM and airline profits first.
 
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flyingclrs727
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 11:11 pm

I wouldn't be interested in flying a 737Max on any airline that does not have a 737Max simulator. Furthermore, no 737Max crew should be allowed to fly a 737Max without having trained in a 737Max simulator.
 
BoeingGuy
Posts: 6255
Joined: Fri Dec 10, 2010 6:01 pm

Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 11:16 pm

ytz wrote:
BoeingGuy wrote:
bgm wrote:

Unfortunately, that swift fix isn't going to bring back the lives of the 300+ people who perished in the 737 MAX within the past 6 months.

Temporarily grounding the fleet until they've figured out what the issue is would be the safer option. Why put more innocent lives in jeopardy until we know the cause? Human lives are more important than airline profits, right?


How do know the ET wasn’t a bomb or something completely unrelated to the airplane design?


How do we know it wasn't aliens or snakes on the plane?

Please.....

The context looks similar enough that precaution is warranted until Boeing and the regulators can at least rule out that the faults weren't necessarily the same. Safety should come before everything else.

And, heaven forbid, if another crash happens in the next few months, and precaution wasn't taken, it's going to look far worse on Boeing, the FAA, and every other regulator who signed off.

Let's not forget that EASA initially insisted on full type training for crew and rolled over on that one to a 3 hr type conversion course. Gotta wonder if we can be confident the regulators are putting safety or OEM and airline profits first.


Interesting thing is that you and I can argue our opinions on this issue all day long and it isn’t going to influence the outcome one iota. Either the FAA will decide to ground the airplane or they won’t. Not a thing anyone on this thread will have any input on.
 
zippy
Posts: 139
Joined: Sun May 11, 2014 9:46 pm

Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 11:23 pm

flyingclrs727 wrote:
I wouldn't be interested in flying a 737Max on any airline that does not have a 737Max simulator. Furthermore, no 737Max crew should be allowed to fly a 737Max without having trained in a 737Max simulator.


Which airlines have MAX sims? At the time of the Lion Air crash both Southwest nor American had only NG simulators.
 
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flyingclrs727
Posts: 2309
Joined: Thu Apr 19, 2007 7:44 am

Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 11:25 pm

zippy wrote:
flyingclrs727 wrote:
I wouldn't be interested in flying a 737Max on any airline that does not have a 737Max simulator. Furthermore, no 737Max crew should be allowed to fly a 737Max without having trained in a 737Max simulator.


Which airlines have MAX sims? At the time of the Lion Air crash both Southwest nor American had only NG simulators.


WN has a Max sim, but AA does not according to CNN.
 
TTailedTiger
Posts: 1156
Joined: Sun Aug 26, 2018 5:19 am

Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 11:26 pm

bgm wrote:
BoeingGuy wrote:
bgm wrote:

Unfortunately, that swift fix isn't going to bring back the lives of the 300+ people who perished in the 737 MAX within the past 6 months.

Temporarily grounding the fleet until they've figured out what the issue is would be the safer option. Why put more innocent lives in jeopardy until we know the cause? Human lives are more important than airline profits, right?


How do know the ET wasn’t a bomb or something completely unrelated to the airplane design?


That's the thing. We don't know. But, until we do why should innocent people's lives be put in jeopardy? To protect Boeing's reputation/profits? To minimize potential costs for airlines? :shakehead:


The ATR was known for crashing in icing conditions. But no one demanded it should be grounded. But then that wasn't a US Product...
 
ytz
Posts: 3529
Joined: Thu Jun 25, 2009 12:31 am

Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Mon Mar 11, 2019 11:28 pm

BoeingGuy wrote:
ytz wrote:
BoeingGuy wrote:

How do know the ET wasn’t a bomb or something completely unrelated to the airplane design?


How do we know it wasn't aliens or snakes on the plane?

Please.....

The context looks similar enough that precaution is warranted until Boeing and the regulators can at least rule out that the faults weren't necessarily the same. Safety should come before everything else.

And, heaven forbid, if another crash happens in the next few months, and precaution wasn't taken, it's going to look far worse on Boeing, the FAA, and every other regulator who signed off.

Let's not forget that EASA initially insisted on full type training for crew and rolled over on that one to a 3 hr type conversion course. Gotta wonder if we can be confident the regulators are putting safety or OEM and airline profits first.


Interesting thing is that you and I can argue our opinions on this issue all day long and it isn’t going to influence the outcome one iota. Either the FAA will decide to ground the airplane or they won’t. Not a thing anyone on this thread will have any input on.


Common debate tactic.

"It didn't matter anyway."

You're right. What the FAA does and what they should do, aren't always necessarily coincident. It's pretty stunning that a type certificate was issued, manuals were published and crews were trained without mention of the MCAS until one thundered in. Makes you wonder whose side the FAA is on.

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