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lowfareair
Posts: 314
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Tue Mar 12, 2019 8:35 pm

TTailedTiger wrote:
ytz wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
Agreed. There are no facts yet from either crash to put the blame on Boeing. People just want to see Boeing hurt..


Where do people come up with this crap?

By your logic, the former head of the NTSB, a former USAF Accident Investigator and fighter pilot, and former FAA safety inspector all want to hurt Boeing:

http://time.com/5549953/boeing-737-crashes-faa-experts/

What is it that head to folks like you getting so emotional over an airplane model that all consideration of public safety goes out the video and everything becomes tribal scoring? And you actually professionals think like this daily?


You still haven't told me why Boeing is at fault. What did Boeing do to cause these two crashes?

People keep saying they are grounded out of an abundance of caution. Well then shouldn't Lion Air be grounded out of an abundance of caution until their maintenance and training practices are reviewed? Good grief look at how many planes they have crashed. Why should they get to keep flying but not Max? Why don't these experts weigh in on Lion Air?


Nobody is saying Boeing is at fault. What has been explained to you by multiple people here is that 2 aircraft of the same type have crashed in a short period of time with very similar preliminary issues, without a large history of flying for that variant to assuage concerns. The odds of this happening outside of a design flaw are rather small. To put it in perspective, if all commercial airplanes crashed at the same flights per crash rate of the MAX 8, there would be a commercial accident every week in the United States alone.

Grounding the planes to ensure it is not a design flaw is prudent.
 
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Finn350
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Tue Mar 12, 2019 8:36 pm

kruiseri wrote:
FlyDubai return from HEL to DXB got cancelled. The plane is now at HEL.


Yes. If I had a ticket on that flight and were in a position to decide whether to reschedule or fly with the 737MAX, I would fly. I don’t think that there currently are any 737MAX pilots who are not familiar with the trim cutout switches. That being said, I fully back the FAA that the MCAS functionality has to corrected.
 
alan3
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Tue Mar 12, 2019 8:36 pm

max999 wrote:
Benni228 wrote:
"Garneau indicated on Tuesday that Canada is now considering grounding the planes, if needed.
"I have directed my group of experts to be ready for all possibilities, including a decision to ground the MAX 8," Garneau told reporters."

Looks like Canada could be following suit at some point today...

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/canada/b ... ax-8-bans-—-what-canadian-travellers-should-know/ar-BBUGJZp?ocid=spartanntp


Air Canada is probably fighting tooth and nail through its political backchannels to convince the Canadian government to keep the MAX flying. The MAX makes up 21% of Air Canada's active narrowbody fleet according to airfleets.net data. I think AC would be the most proportionally affected airline if their MAX fleet is grounded. It would very difficult and expensive to recover operations if 21% of their narrowbody fleet is down.

Total number of AC active narrowbodies: 113
Number of AC MAX: 24
Percent of narrowbody fleet: 21%


This is true. Not sure how much longer Transport Canada can hold out, but AC must be very worried. The MAX is now used on most Hawaii flights and lucrative domestic routes like YVR-YYZ and YYZ-YUL which feed onwards connections. I wonder, would cancelled flights and missed connections due to removing the MAX count as Act of God or would they need to compensate?
Last edited by alan3 on Tue Mar 12, 2019 8:38 pm, edited 2 times in total.
 
TTailedTiger
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Tue Mar 12, 2019 8:37 pm

ytz wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
You still haven't told me why Boeing is at fault. What did Boeing do to cause these two crashes?


A precautionary grounding happens when you don't know what the problem is. It may not be Boeing's fault at all. But until we can rule out the similarity between the two crashes as concerns, they should be grounded. Now that they have the CVR and FDR, they should be able to do that in weeks.

I will add that you seem to have a rather simplistic worldview where somehow blame is apportioned 100% to one party. That is not how things work in real life. In all likelihood these crashes will be a combination of things, from some minor technical defect, to amplification by some human factors consideration to a training issues to even possibly a regulatory issue. Anybody who thinks an accident will leave a single party to blame shouldn't be involved in the operation of airplanes.

TTailedTiger wrote:
People keep saying they are grounded out of an abundance of caution.


You don't seem to understand what that phrase means. Or should mean to aviation professionals.

TTailedTiger wrote:
Well then shouldn't Lion Air be grounded out of an abundance of caution until their maintenance and training practices are reviewed?


Perhaps they should. But that's up to the Indonesian government. I don't live in Indonesia so the supervision of Lion Air doesn't concern me. Any more than say Air Koryo's safety record concerns me. What concerns me is whether the FAA has exercised appropriate diligence in awarding a Type Cert to Boeing when there are some stark differences in handling without augmentation. I'd like to know if that's a factor in a crash.

Going back to my original question. Are you going to suggest the former head of the NTSB doesn't know what he's talking about? I'd like you to stop dodging and address the comments made by those professionals in that article.


That's his opinion and an article yesterday posted the opinion of another former NTSB director. He took a wait and see approach. He wasn't calling for hanging Boeing just yet.
 
max999
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Tue Mar 12, 2019 8:37 pm

Bingo1 wrote:
max999 wrote:
Benni228 wrote:
"Garneau indicated on Tuesday that Canada is now considering grounding the planes, if needed.
"I have directed my group of experts to be ready for all possibilities, including a decision to ground the MAX 8," Garneau told reporters."

Looks like Canada could be following suit at some point today...

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/canada/b ... ax-8-bans-—-what-canadian-travellers-should-know/ar-BBUGJZp?ocid=spartanntp


Air Canada is probably fighting tooth and nail through its political backchannels to convince the Canadian government to keep the MAX flying. The MAX makes up 21% of Air Canada's active narrowbody fleet according to airfleets.net data. I think AC would be the most proportionally affected airline if their MAX fleet is grounded. It would very difficult and expensive to recover operations if 21% of their narrowbody fleet is down.

Total number of AC active narrowbodies: 113
Number of AC MAX: 24
Percent of narrowbody fleet: 21%


And, as we're seeing with the SNC Lavalin affair, those back channels aren't necessarily back channels. They're freeways.

I would really feel for AC if the grounding extended to them. Sure, some of those Max' are sitting now because of the ban in the EU but it would affect ops tremendously.

Boeing can thank their lucky stars that the airplane manufacturing industry is a comfortable duoply right now. They could mess up really bad and only loose some market share instead of disappearing a la de Haviland in the Comet era.


Can't say I feel sympathetic for AC. In the past, they've often gotten what they wanted from the Canadian government...regardless of what other stakeholders think.
All the things I really like to do are either immoral, illegal, or fattening.
 
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aemoreira1981
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Tue Mar 12, 2019 8:38 pm

vfw614 wrote:
FCAFLYBOY wrote:
BravoOne wrote:
I hear EASA just pulled the plug and grounded the MAX.


Yep, even India’s DGCA now too. All eyes on AA/UAWN/AC/WS/WG now. That and the FAA and FlyDubai


Plus Air Mauritania.and SCAT.


And Copa Airlines.
 
Dominion301
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Tue Mar 12, 2019 8:39 pm

Bingo1 wrote:
max999 wrote:
Benni228 wrote:
"Garneau indicated on Tuesday that Canada is now considering grounding the planes, if needed.
"I have directed my group of experts to be ready for all possibilities, including a decision to ground the MAX 8," Garneau told reporters."

Looks like Canada could be following suit at some point today...

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/canada/b ... ax-8-bans-—-what-canadian-travellers-should-know/ar-BBUGJZp?ocid=spartanntp


Air Canada is probably fighting tooth and nail through its political backchannels to convince the Canadian government to keep the MAX flying. The MAX makes up 21% of Air Canada's active narrowbody fleet according to airfleets.net data. I think AC would be the most proportionally affected airline if their MAX fleet is grounded. It would very difficult and expensive to recover operations if 21% of their narrowbody fleet is down.

Total number of AC active narrowbodies: 113
Number of AC MAX: 24
Percent of narrowbody fleet: 21%


And, as we're seeing with the SNC Lavalin affair, those back channels aren't necessarily back channels. They're freeways.

I would really feel for AC if the grounding extended to them. Sure, some of those Max' are sitting now because of the ban in the EU but it would affect ops tremendously.

Boeing can thank their lucky stars that the airplane manufacturing industry is a comfortable duoply right now. They could mess up really bad and only loose some market share instead of disappearing a la de Haviland in the Comet era.


It's not quite as bad if you add in all the Rouge narrowbodies. No doubt AC could sub some Rouge flying in for mainline. As well, YHZ/YYT-LHR could get combined and upgauged to a 767 temporarily like happened last winter. I'd expect more red-eyes and extra sections with the Airbus narrowbody fleet will cover them off. Probably a few widebody turns could be added in between long-hauls (e.g. combine 2 Rapidair flights into 1 77W).

Depending upon how long this lasts, this could impact AC's decision to delay E90 and old A320 retirements.

WestJet might hurt more than AC, even if proportionately it's only about 12% of WS' mainline narrowbody fleet. WS and AC can also call on Canadian North, First Air, Air North or (gasp) Flair :checkeredflag: if they need extra temporary lift.

Canada will look pretty bad if they don't ground the MAX before the US.
Last edited by Dominion301 on Tue Mar 12, 2019 8:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
bob75013
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Tue Mar 12, 2019 8:39 pm

The FAA does not ground aircraft willy nilly. It grounds aircraft when it has a valid reason to ground aircraft.

Reference USAir 427 -- 25 years ago

https://www.airspacemag.com/flight-toda ... 23/?page=1

So far, the FAA has no valid reason to ground the MAXs
 
dampfnudel
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Tue Mar 12, 2019 8:40 pm

asuflyer wrote:
https://mailchi.mp/apfa/3hvdkgc33i

AA's FA union, AFPA are calling on Doug Parker to suspend use of the 737MAX.


I guess at least one US carrier will have enough of the pressure by tomorrow or maybe even this evening and decide to ground their MAX fleet.
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ytz
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Tue Mar 12, 2019 8:42 pm

TTailedTiger wrote:
ytz wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
You still haven't told me why Boeing is at fault. What did Boeing do to cause these two crashes?


A precautionary grounding happens when you don't know what the problem is. It may not be Boeing's fault at all. But until we can rule out the similarity between the two crashes as concerns, they should be grounded. Now that they have the CVR and FDR, they should be able to do that in weeks.

I will add that you seem to have a rather simplistic worldview where somehow blame is apportioned 100% to one party. That is not how things work in real life. In all likelihood these crashes will be a combination of things, from some minor technical defect, to amplification by some human factors consideration to a training issues to even possibly a regulatory issue. Anybody who thinks an accident will leave a single party to blame shouldn't be involved in the operation of airplanes.

TTailedTiger wrote:
People keep saying they are grounded out of an abundance of caution.


You don't seem to understand what that phrase means. Or should mean to aviation professionals.

TTailedTiger wrote:
Well then shouldn't Lion Air be grounded out of an abundance of caution until their maintenance and training practices are reviewed?


Perhaps they should. But that's up to the Indonesian government. I don't live in Indonesia so the supervision of Lion Air doesn't concern me. Any more than say Air Koryo's safety record concerns me. What concerns me is whether the FAA has exercised appropriate diligence in awarding a Type Cert to Boeing when there are some stark differences in handling without augmentation. I'd like to know if that's a factor in a crash.

Going back to my original question. Are you going to suggest the former head of the NTSB doesn't know what he's talking about? I'd like you to stop dodging and address the comments made by those professionals in that article.


That's his opinion and an article yesterday posted the opinion of another former NTSB director. He took a wait and see approach. He wasn't calling for hanging Boeing just yet.


This is his direct quote:

“There’s no question in my mind that if those two events had happened in our country, the aircraft would be grounded and there would be a far more intense look at this.”

I think we have a clue to what he would have done if this is on his watch.

And this isn't about "hanging Boeing". This is about ensuring the public's safety. And quite frankly, the FAA's actions here bother me far, far, far more than Boeing.

Have you ever actually operated or fixed an aircraft or is all your experience these forums? What's your professional background?
 
B747forever
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Tue Mar 12, 2019 8:45 pm

dampfnudel wrote:
asuflyer wrote:
https://mailchi.mp/apfa/3hvdkgc33i

AA's FA union, AFPA are calling on Doug Parker to suspend use of the 737MAX.


I guess at least one US carrier will have enough of the pressure by tomorrow or maybe even this evening and decide to ground their MAX fleet.


If that happens I expect all remaining US and Canadian operators to ground their airplanes. As soon as one of them blinks, all MAX operations world wide will be halted.
Work Hard, Fly Right
 
TTailedTiger
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Tue Mar 12, 2019 8:46 pm

ytz wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
ytz wrote:

A precautionary grounding happens when you don't know what the problem is. It may not be Boeing's fault at all. But until we can rule out the similarity between the two crashes as concerns, they should be grounded. Now that they have the CVR and FDR, they should be able to do that in weeks.

I will add that you seem to have a rather simplistic worldview where somehow blame is apportioned 100% to one party. That is not how things work in real life. In all likelihood these crashes will be a combination of things, from some minor technical defect, to amplification by some human factors consideration to a training issues to even possibly a regulatory issue. Anybody who thinks an accident will leave a single party to blame shouldn't be involved in the operation of airplanes.



You don't seem to understand what that phrase means. Or should mean to aviation professionals.



Perhaps they should. But that's up to the Indonesian government. I don't live in Indonesia so the supervision of Lion Air doesn't concern me. Any more than say Air Koryo's safety record concerns me. What concerns me is whether the FAA has exercised appropriate diligence in awarding a Type Cert to Boeing when there are some stark differences in handling without augmentation. I'd like to know if that's a factor in a crash.

Going back to my original question. Are you going to suggest the former head of the NTSB doesn't know what he's talking about? I'd like you to stop dodging and address the comments made by those professionals in that article.


That's his opinion and an article yesterday posted the opinion of another former NTSB director. He took a wait and see approach. He wasn't calling for hanging Boeing just yet.


This is his direct quote:

“There’s no question in my mind that if those two events had happened in our country, the aircraft would be grounded and there would be a far more intense look at this.”

I think we have a clue to what he would have done if this is on his watch.

And this isn't about "hanging Boeing". This is about ensuring the public's safety. And quite frankly, the FAA's actions here bother me far, far, far more than Boeing.

Have you ever actually operated or fixed an aircraft or is all your experience these forums? What's your professional background?


I have a PPL and have degrees in aeronautical science and human factors. You would do well to research the leading cause of all aircraft accidents. Hint, it's not the airplane.
 
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777Jet
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Tue Mar 12, 2019 8:46 pm

cdin844 wrote:
777Jet wrote:
32andBelow wrote:
Lion air would crash any aircraft type.


True. They fly planes that should be on the ground getting fixed. Some of their pilots land on the water instead of the runway. They must be close to having crashed at least one of every type they have operated.


Even if Lion Air would have crashed flight 610 no matter what kind of aircraft it is, Boeing shouldn't be putting a product out there that exacerbates poor airmanship.


No manufacturer should put out a product that exacerbates poor airmanship. No airline should fly planes that should be on the ground getting fixed. Pilots with the type of airmanship of particular Lion Air pilots should be on a shorter leash.
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dtw2hyd
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Tue Mar 12, 2019 8:48 pm

TTailedTiger wrote:
JetBuddy wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
If it turns out to be negligence on the part of the crew or maintenance then Boeing should give some thought about whether to sell to exotic airlines. It doesn't seem to be worth the headache when they crash one. How many 737's has Lion Air crashed now? Maybe a stipulation that they will also not support used aircraft that have been sold to these airlines.


Although I see your point, neither Ethiopian Airlines or Lion Air are "exotic" airlines. Both of these airlines run their own flight academies. Other airlines pay them to train their pilots. Not selling them planes means more sales for Airbus. And not supporting their existing fleets just means more accidents.


Neither of those carriers are comparable to someone like British Airways or United Airlines. Andy why are informing all of Lion Air's crashes? They are one of the most unsafe airlines in the world.


If they are so unsafe why sell them the planes and put your reputation on the line.

The third world is the go place for a new airframe sale. They are buying more planes than everyone else. No country/airline will put their most valued assets in risk just to save a few bucks. They follow every recommendation aircraft manufacturers and FAA/EASA likes to impose on them.

Civil aviation in the third world is unsafe, is just a convenient PR theory, by mostly aviation consulting companies to make more money by providing consulting services from the same third world airlines. How ironic!!!
All posts are just opinions.
 
Benni228
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Tue Mar 12, 2019 8:49 pm

I'm confused.. Ethiopian ET404 just took off from ADD en-route to TLV on a MAX8. I thought Ethiopian grounded their MAX8 fleet? Or is this just a FlightAware error?

https://flightaware.com/live/flight/ETH ... /HAAB/LLBG
 
stylo777
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Tue Mar 12, 2019 8:51 pm

Benni228 wrote:
I'm confused.. Ethiopian ET404 just took off from ADD en-route to TLV on a MAX8. I thought Ethiopian grounded their MAX8 fleet? Or is this just a FlightAware error?

https://flightaware.com/live/flight/ETH ... /HAAB/LLBG

It's a regular 738 (ET-APM)
 
FCAFLYBOY
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Tue Mar 12, 2019 8:51 pm

Benni228 wrote:
I'm confused.. Ethiopian ET404 just took off from ADD en-route to TLV on a MAX8. I thought Ethiopian grounded their MAX8 fleet? Or is this just a FlightAware error?

https://flightaware.com/live/flight/ETH ... /HAAB/LLBG


I’m seeing the flight, but it’s a 737-800 not a MAX
 
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crimsonchin
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Tue Mar 12, 2019 8:52 pm

So, if Boeing is insisting there's nothing wrong with the MAX, meaning there's nothing to fix, at what point will the planes be cleared to fly again? I assume when a preliminary report is revealed from the findings in the ET blackboxes?
 
sadiqutp
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Tue Mar 12, 2019 8:53 pm

Benni228 wrote:
I'm confused.. Ethiopian ET404 just took off from ADD en-route to TLV on a MAX8. I thought Ethiopian grounded their MAX8 fleet? Or is this just a FlightAware error?

https://flightaware.com/live/flight/ETH ... /HAAB/LLBG

it's not Max .. it's 800
https://www.flightradar24.com/ETH404/1fc816c4
 
ClubCX
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Tue Mar 12, 2019 8:54 pm

B747forever wrote:
If that happens I expect all remaining US and Canadian operators to ground their airplanes. As soon as one of them blinks, all MAX operations world wide will be halted.

That would hurt some airlines more than others. Southwest would be badly disrupted by grounding dozens of planes and could lose the loyalty of its customer base that has built up over many years. It might be like the grounding of Concorde, which caused many customers to find permanent alternatives and never come back.
 
ramprat320
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Tue Mar 12, 2019 8:55 pm

Given the social media hysteria based on speculation and fear I fail to understand why there are no calls for the worldwide 767 fleets to be grounded seeing as the cause of the Atlas Air accident is not yet known? It’s interesting how there is no patience in today’s “now” age (thanks to technology) ... no one is willing to wait for the facts and findings which will be revealed in due course. Calm and Logic is supplanted by pandemonium and speculation.
 
Luxair
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Tue Mar 12, 2019 8:55 pm

Exactly my thoughts, well said Sir. It is the way how both, Boeing and the FAA handles this crisis what makes people become even more suspicious. As if they had much worse to cover up! It reminds me the Streisand effect, seriously. Instead of doing damage control they do the opposite.

I recall reading today in https://www.aero.de/news-31164/Wird-schon-gut-gehen.html that it might be a construction-related handling deficiency. Imagine the sweeping consequences for Boeing but also for the FAA...


AirlineCritic wrote:
FWIW, I'm very surprised that so many seasoned posters here are surprised about the grounding. Doing things based on established knowledge about the root cause of accident is a fine way to approach things, but so is doing things based on the lack of knowledge in the face of accidents. Abundance of caution, as someone said.

And it does seem like Boeing and FAA have been left looking quite bad in the end. Here's what would have made more sense (with some hindsight):

Lead the world and say that while there's too little information at present time to determine what happened or if there's a problem in the plane, but out of caution and Boeing's committment to safety, ask the planes to be temporarily suspended from flying.

Use the time to thoroughly inspect them, collect possible information from other incidents in the worldwide fleet that did not lead to accidents, and to progress the JT and ET investigations. And progress the already in-progress fix.

After some number of days or weeks, declare that there's enough information and a fix that addresses at least some aspects of the problem. Say that the planes be ready to fly again.

They would have ended up looking experts, saviours, and ones coming up with solutions.

But today they look rather defensive (even as if they have something to hide) or have inappropriate influence with the local regulator. I'm putting this down to incompetent treatment of the situation, not that they'd have anything to hide. It is always better to confess and offer help, assistance, and take a relatively small financial hit, than to lose reputation or, gasp, perhaps another plane. If they lost another plane in North America for instance, think of the lawsuits... we'd be talking about possible significant financial damage to Boeing, or even breakup of the company at that point. Definitely fired management. So why this behaviour? It makes no logical sense...
 
stylo777
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Tue Mar 12, 2019 8:56 pm

Smartwings is currently the online airline with 4 max aircraft in the air close to European airspace (IST, TLV, TUN and TFS).
 
ytz
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Tue Mar 12, 2019 8:57 pm

TTailedTiger wrote:
ytz wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:

That's his opinion and an article yesterday posted the opinion of another former NTSB director. He took a wait and see approach. He wasn't calling for hanging Boeing just yet.


This is his direct quote:

“There’s no question in my mind that if those two events had happened in our country, the aircraft would be grounded and there would be a far more intense look at this.”

I think we have a clue to what he would have done if this is on his watch.

And this isn't about "hanging Boeing". This is about ensuring the public's safety. And quite frankly, the FAA's actions here bother me far, far, far more than Boeing.

Have you ever actually operated or fixed an aircraft or is all your experience these forums? What's your professional background?


I have a PPL and have degrees in aeronautical science and human factors. You would do well to research the leading cause of all aircraft accidents. Hint, it's not the airplane.


1) If you really do have those degrees (and I work with two HF guys literally in the next cubicle), you had better hope anybody considering you for future employment doesn't find these posts. What school did you go to?

2) You will not earlier that specifically stated:

" It may not be Boeing's fault at all."

"I will add that you seem to have a rather simplistic worldview where somehow blame is apportioned 100% to one party. That is not how things work in real life. In all likelihood these crashes will be a combination of things, from some minor technical defect, to amplification by some human factors consideration to a training issues to even possibly a regulatory issue. Anybody who thinks an accident will leave a single party to blame shouldn't be involved in the operation of airplanes."

I shudder to think that a supposed human factors expect can't think that there may be design flaws or procedural flaws that amplify other factors.
 
marcelh
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Tue Mar 12, 2019 8:58 pm

TTailedTiger wrote:
caljn wrote:
keesje wrote:


National support for the FAA is shrinking. Former FAA bosses disagreeing with the approach so far.



Government, especially in the US, is only as good as those who run it. Currently in charge is the party of "government is the problem" and are forever bemoaning "regulations". (actually regulations should be called "protections".)


So why not ground the 737NG? Lion Air sure has crashed a bunch of them.

Are you working at the Boeing PR Dept?
 
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Carlos01
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Tue Mar 12, 2019 8:58 pm

Finn350 wrote:
I don’t think that there currently are any 737MAX pilots who are not familiar with the trim cutout switches. That being said, I fully back the FAA that the MCAS functionality has to corrected.


Well yes, true, given that the trim cutout switches actually fix the problem, and not just a part of it. What if there is another problem that occurs only in extremely rare conditions, which make the plane unrecoverable? That would be a bummer, especially for the ones being on board.
 
B747forever
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Tue Mar 12, 2019 8:59 pm

ClubCX wrote:
B747forever wrote:
If that happens I expect all remaining US and Canadian operators to ground their airplanes. As soon as one of them blinks, all MAX operations world wide will be halted.

That would hurt some airlines more than others. Southwest would be badly disrupted by grounding dozens of planes and could lose the loyalty of its customer base that has built up over many years. It might be like the grounding of Concorde, which caused many customers to find permanent alternatives and never come back.


It would probably hurt Southwest more to be the lone MAX operator world wide.
Work Hard, Fly Right
 
stylo777
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Tue Mar 12, 2019 8:59 pm

Boeing currently has a B39M in the air; it took off at RNT as BOE402.

Testflight?
 
lowfareair
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Tue Mar 12, 2019 9:00 pm

ramprat320 wrote:
Given the social media hysteria based on speculation and fear I fail to understand why there are no calls for the worldwide 767 fleets to be grounded seeing as the cause of the Atlas Air accident is not yet known? It’s interesting how there is no patience in today’s “now” age (thanks to technology) ... no one is willing to wait for the facts and findings which will be revealed in due course. Calm and Logic is supplanted by pandemonium and speculation.


There is a long history of 767 reliability, and the flight hours/cycles per crash rate is much, much higher than the MAX.

If a 2nd 767 crashed under similar circumstances that indicate a potential design flaw, then you would see many more calls for groundings.
 
ytz
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Tue Mar 12, 2019 9:01 pm

ramprat320 wrote:
Given the social media hysteria based on speculation and fear I fail to understand why there are no calls for the worldwide 767 fleets to be grounded seeing as the cause of the Atlas Air accident is not yet known? It’s interesting how there is no patience in today’s “now” age (thanks to technology) ... no one is willing to wait for the facts and findings which will be revealed in due course. Calm and Logic is supplanted by pandemonium and speculation.


One data point is anomaly. Two is trend.

We haven't yet seen another crash with similar context.

Will also add, for better or for worse, people are less concerned with cargo operators packing it in than commercial airliners.
 
Cathay777300ER
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Tue Mar 12, 2019 9:03 pm

stylo777 wrote:
Smartwings is currently the online airline with 4 max aircraft in the air close to European airspace (IST, TLV, TUN and TFS).


Also Being European registered aircraft they should have landed at 1900 UTC like most airlines did or be on approach. Really weird that they have continued the flights even under this directive.
 
ytz
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Tue Mar 12, 2019 9:03 pm

marcelh wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
caljn wrote:

National support for the FAA is shrinking. Former FAA bosses disagreeing with the approach so far.



Government, especially in the US, is only as good as those who run it. Currently in charge is the party of "government is the problem" and are forever bemoaning "regulations". (actually regulations should be called "protections".)


So why not ground the 737NG? Lion Air sure has crashed a bunch of them.

Are you working at the Boeing PR Dept?


Apparently a human factors expert who never questions if the OEM designed the procedure right or the location of the knob makes sense. I know. I've never met an HF expert who thinks like that either....
 
smartplane
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Tue Mar 12, 2019 9:03 pm

How many operators, owners and airworthiness authorities knew until this week Boeing were urgently working on software and hardware changes to make the safe MAX, even safer?

How many knew this work was initiated within 2 weeks of the Lion crash, while Boeing PR, including on this site, pointed at Lion MX and flight crew?

Do the few MAX simulators in existence completely replicate / mimic MCAS?

Has Boeing and the FAA 'discovered' MCAS can be enabled in situations other than those previously described / advised, including with flaps deployed?

What FAA discussions have taken place with EASA since the Lion crash, and how has the tenor of those changed over time?

The groundings to-date reflect serious shortcomings in trust and communication. For many airworthiness authorities and airlines, the FAA statement to keep smiling and flying was the last straw, suggesting a breakdown in the FAA's primary function to protect the public.
 
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anfromme
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Tue Mar 12, 2019 9:05 pm

AirlineCritic wrote:
FWIW, I'm very surprised that so many seasoned posters here are surprised about the grounding. Doing things based on established knowledge about the root cause of accident is a fine way to approach things, but so is doing things based on the lack of knowledge in the face of accidents. Abundance of caution, as someone said.

And it does seem like Boeing and FAA have been left looking quite bad in the end. Here's what would have made more sense (with some hindsight):

Lead the world and say that while there's too little information at present time to determine what happened or if there's a problem in the plane, but out of caution and Boeing's committment to safety, ask the planes to be temporarily suspended from flying.

Use the time to thoroughly inspect them, collect possible information from other incidents in the worldwide fleet that did not lead to accidents, and to progress the JT and ET investigations. And progress the already in-progress fix.

After some number of days or weeks, declare that there's enough information and a fix that addresses at least some aspects of the problem. Say that the planes be ready to fly again.

They would have ended up looking experts, saviours, and ones coming up with solutions.

But today they look rather defensive (even as if they have something to hide) or have inappropriate influence with the local regulator. I'm putting this down to incompetent treatment of the situation, not that they'd have anything to hide. It is always better to confess and offer help, assistance, and take a relatively small financial hit, than to lose reputation or, gasp, perhaps another plane. If they lost another plane in North America for instance, think of the lawsuits... we'd be talking about possible significant financial damage to Boeing, or even breakup of the company at that point. Definitely fired management. So why this behaviour? It makes no logical sense...



What a well-reasoned and calm post! Makes such a difference in all this heated debate in which people start taking groundings personally as attacks on their country, favourite manufacturer, etc.
Thanks!

konrad wrote:
FlyDubai had nowhere to fly with Europe and India closed to the MAX's.


FlyDubai's home base itself is closed to the MAX as well, so the flight would in theory have nowhere to land as both the destination and the UAE didn't allow MAX operations any more.
Somebody had to grant an exception, and I suppose it was Finland/EASA because the flight was already 4hrs into flight with less than 2hrs left to its destination when the EASA ban was announced.

ytz wrote:
It's certainly an interesting debate from a certification point of view. If MCAS is absolutely needed to certify that MAX as handling similar to the NG, should it be certified under the same Type Cert?

Well, it's an amended type cert. An A340-600 has some vastly different systems and characteristics from an A340-200, and they still share the same type cert.
From my understanding, MCAS was not so much about handling characteristics (although it helps those), but about actually meeting pitch stability curve requirements for certification. Which is also why it's so hard to just get rid of MCAS and educate pilots about how MAX does handle slightly differently after all.
42
 
D L X
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Tue Mar 12, 2019 9:06 pm

ramprat320 wrote:
Given the social media hysteria based on speculation and fear I fail to understand why there are no calls for the worldwide 767 fleets to be grounded seeing as the cause of the Atlas Air accident is not yet known? It’s interesting how there is no patience in today’s “now” age (thanks to technology) ... no one is willing to wait for the facts and findings which will be revealed in due course. Calm and Logic is supplanted by pandemonium and speculation.

Nope.

We haven’t grounded 767s because the atlas crash does not appear to be part of a trend. The type is very mature and has a fantastic record.

The MAX 8 is brand new, and has already had two crashes in similar fashions. That’s a trend. That’s the difference.
 
TTailedTiger
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Tue Mar 12, 2019 9:06 pm

ytz wrote:
marcelh wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:

So why not ground the 737NG? Lion Air sure has crashed a bunch of them.

Are you working at the Boeing PR Dept?


Apparently a human factors expert who never questions if the OEM designed the procedure right or the location of the knob makes sense. I know. I've never met an HF expert who thinks like that either....


From why I understand the trim cutout switches have remained in the same place since the 737ADV.
 
ytz
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Tue Mar 12, 2019 9:07 pm

lowfareair wrote:
ramprat320 wrote:
Given the social media hysteria based on speculation and fear I fail to understand why there are no calls for the worldwide 767 fleets to be grounded seeing as the cause of the Atlas Air accident is not yet known? It’s interesting how there is no patience in today’s “now” age (thanks to technology) ... no one is willing to wait for the facts and findings which will be revealed in due course. Calm and Logic is supplanted by pandemonium and speculation.


There is a long history of 767 reliability, and the flight hours/cycles per crash rate is much, much higher than the MAX.

If a 2nd 767 crashed under similar circumstances that indicate a potential design flaw, then you would see many more calls for groundings.


Yeah. People are really strawmanning this.

"Two of these crashed. Why aren't they banning all of these types of frames too?"

Ummm no. What's relevant here is not just the type, but the fact that they were in the same phase of flight, showed/reported similar issues with controllability, and had similar crash/impact trajectories. If two 767s or 330s or 350s or 787s or 220s or E90s went down in exactly such a fashion, regulators worldwide would be reacting in a similar fashion.
 
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AirlineCritic
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Tue Mar 12, 2019 9:07 pm

In my opinion, it is unlikely that the US airlines such as Southwest can afford to be the only ones flying a particular airplane type. If there's a later accident, the liability demands would be immense, and the airline would be viewed as knowingly having used a faulty airplane. I don't think they can take that risk.

(And this is entirely unrelated to what caused the two accidents we saw now; we don't know the causes yet, so at the moment the risk exists that there is a fault, and if there's a fault, an accident may follow. You may think that the root causes were something else than in the airplane, but you wouldn't be able to guarantee that.)
 
Aither
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Tue Mar 12, 2019 9:09 pm

With a better communication things would have been totally different. FAA/Boeing just can't say "hey we have a good idea why they crashed but keep on and don't worry, an update is coming!" Awful communication.
After, it's just a snowball effect, once your competitor decides to ground the aircraft, you have to do the same. You don't want to be seen as the one caring less about the life of your passenger. It's as simple as that.

IMO Boeing should have said something like, we don't know what happened, but because of the similarities, we suspect something and we are going to issue an alert, a pilot training package, ask the mechanics to check X or Y. Just give the feeling that there is an action and things are under control until the update comes rather than letting down your customer facing alone the social media anger.
Last edited by Aither on Tue Mar 12, 2019 9:16 pm, edited 2 times in total.
Never trust the obvious
 
bob75013
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Tue Mar 12, 2019 9:10 pm

ytz wrote:
ramprat320 wrote:
Given the social media hysteria based on speculation and fear I fail to understand why there are no calls for the worldwide 767 fleets to be grounded seeing as the cause of the Atlas Air accident is not yet known? It’s interesting how there is no patience in today’s “now” age (thanks to technology) ... no one is willing to wait for the facts and findings which will be revealed in due course. Calm and Logic is supplanted by pandemonium and speculation.


One data point is anomaly. Two is trend.

We haven't yet seen another crash with similar context.

.

Actually, up to this point we haven't proven two crashes with similar context
 
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Seabear
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Tue Mar 12, 2019 9:11 pm

USA TODAY: Trump says planes are 'too complex to fly'

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/pol ... 138733002/

Well, that settles it.
 
eamondzhang
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Tue Mar 12, 2019 9:12 pm

Rumour surfacing in Chinese Weibo claimed that an instructor, likely a MF instructor given his location, claimed that Boeing said on MAX's checklist that pilots should be able to land the plane safely with input from horizontal stabilizers alone; they found that is not the case on MAX simulators.

Michael
Last edited by eamondzhang on Tue Mar 12, 2019 9:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
cpd
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Tue Mar 12, 2019 9:13 pm

AirlineCritic wrote:
FWIW, I'm very surprised that so many seasoned posters here are surprised about the grounding. Doing things based on established knowledge about the root cause of accident is a fine way to approach things, but so is doing things based on the lack of knowledge in the face of accidents. Abundance of caution, as someone said.

And it does seem like Boeing and FAA have been left looking quite bad in the end. Here's what would have made more sense (with some hindsight):

Lead the world and say that while there's too little information at present time to determine what happened or if there's a problem in the plane, but out of caution and Boeing's committment to safety, ask the planes to be temporarily suspended from flying.

Use the time to thoroughly inspect them, collect possible information from other incidents in the worldwide fleet that did not lead to accidents, and to progress the JT and ET investigations. And progress the already in-progress fix.

After some number of days or weeks, declare that there's enough information and a fix that addresses at least some aspects of the problem. Say that the planes be ready to fly again.

They would have ended up looking experts, saviours, and ones coming up with solutions.

But today they look rather defensive (even as if they have something to hide) or have inappropriate influence with the local regulator. I'm putting this down to incompetent treatment of the situation, not that they'd have anything to hide. It is always better to confess and offer help, assistance, and take a relatively small financial hit, than to lose reputation or, gasp, perhaps another plane. If they lost another plane in North America for instance, think of the lawsuits... we'd be talking about possible significant financial damage to Boeing, or even breakup of the company at that point. Definitely fired management. So why this behaviour? It makes no logical sense...



This is a well reasoned post. A grounding by the FAA for the reasons you've suggested doesn't look bad, it looks sensible and cautious. It also gives people confidence.

Seabear wrote:
USA TODAY: Trump says planes are 'too complex to fly'

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/pol ... 138733002/

Well, that settles it.


I won't even give that a comment. :banghead:
 
UALWN
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Tue Mar 12, 2019 9:15 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
TCCA or EASA doing so, BEFORE primary contribution to crash found? ***that*** would be a "whoops."


That didn't age well either...
AT7/111/146/Avro/CRJ/CR9/EMB/ERJ/E75/F50/100/L15/DC9/D10/M8X/717/727/737/747/757/767/777/787/AB6/310/32X/330/340/350/380
 
ytz
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Tue Mar 12, 2019 9:16 pm

TTailedTiger wrote:
ytz wrote:
marcelh wrote:
Are you working at the Boeing PR Dept?


Apparently a human factors expert who never questions if the OEM designed the procedure right or the location of the knob makes sense. I know. I've never met an HF expert who thinks like that either....


From why I understand the trim cutout switches have remained in the same place since the 737ADV.


One would think a guy with an HF degree would understand that it's not just about whether the switches were moved but about how they are understood to function by the crew and what that crew's understanding is of the system. Let's not forget, that their FCOM didn't have any mention of MCAS until the Indonesia crash.

Honestly, I would really like to know where you went to school. Some quality HF grads apparently.
 
TTailedTiger
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Tue Mar 12, 2019 9:17 pm

ytz wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
ytz wrote:

Apparently a human factors expert who never questions if the OEM designed the procedure right or the location of the knob makes sense. I know. I've never met an HF expert who thinks like that either....


From why I understand the trim cutout switches have remained in the same place since the 737ADV.


One would think a guy with an HF degree would understand that it's not just about whether the switches were moved but about how they are understood to function by the crew and what that crew's understanding is of the system. Let's not forget, that their FCOM didn't have any mention of MCAS until the Indonesia crash.

Honestly, I would really like to know where you went to school. Some quality HF grads apparently.


Do you honestly believe everyone with a human factors degree is going to come to the same conclusion?
 
ytz
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Tue Mar 12, 2019 9:18 pm

bob75013 wrote:
ytz wrote:
ramprat320 wrote:
Given the social media hysteria based on speculation and fear I fail to understand why there are no calls for the worldwide 767 fleets to be grounded seeing as the cause of the Atlas Air accident is not yet known? It’s interesting how there is no patience in today’s “now” age (thanks to technology) ... no one is willing to wait for the facts and findings which will be revealed in due course. Calm and Logic is supplanted by pandemonium and speculation.


One data point is anomaly. Two is trend.

We haven't yet seen another crash with similar context.

.

Actually, up to this point we haven't proven two crashes with similar context


I guess enough regulators and lots of former US aviation officials disagree.

Former head of NTSB:

“There’s no question in my mind that if those two events had happened in our country, the aircraft would be grounded and there would be a far more intense look at this.”

Source:
http://time.com/5549953/boeing-737-crashes-faa-experts/

Hey. It's a.net. For all I know, you must have more experience than that guy.
 
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Finn350
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Tue Mar 12, 2019 9:19 pm

smartplane wrote:
How many operators, owners and airworthiness authorities knew until this week Boeing were urgently working on software and hardware changes to make the safe MAX, even safer?

How many knew this work was initiated within 2 weeks of the Lion crash, while Boeing PR, including on this site, pointed at Lion MX and flight crew?


Probably most if not all of them, as it was publicly reported already last December.

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... so-454255/
 
THS214
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Tue Mar 12, 2019 9:19 pm

TTailedTiger wrote:
JetBuddy wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
If it turns out to be negligence on the part of the crew or maintenance then Boeing should give some thought about whether to sell to exotic airlines. It doesn't seem to be worth the headache when they crash one. How many 737's has Lion Air crashed now? Maybe a stipulation that they will also not support used aircraft that have been sold to these airlines.


Although I see your point, neither Ethiopian Airlines or Lion Air are "exotic" airlines. Both of these airlines run their own flight academies. Other airlines pay them to train their pilots. Not selling them planes means more sales for Airbus. And not supporting their existing fleets just means more accidents.


Neither of those carriers are comparable to someone like British Airways or United Airlines. Andy why are informing all of Lion Air's crashes? They are one of the most unsafe airlines in the world.


Lion Air is not safe but their 737MAX accident had nothing to do with their overall safety record.
 
afgeneral
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Tue Mar 12, 2019 9:20 pm

Seabear wrote:
USA TODAY: Trump says planes are 'too complex to fly'

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/pol ... 138733002/

Well, that settles it.


Time to restart production of 727s

They even have 3 engines so they are safer

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