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THS214
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Tue Mar 12, 2019 11:28 pm

TTailedTiger wrote:
THS214 wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:

I have a PPL and have degrees in aeronautical science and human factors. You would do well to research the leading cause of all aircraft accidents. Hint, it's not the airplane.


Bold to say " leading cause of all aircraft accidents. Hint, it's not the airplane". Especially when we don't know the reason for this Ethiopian accident.

Remember that both "black boxes" have been found. Initial read outs have given something for authorities to ground the plane.


Are you disputing that pilot error is the leading cause of all aircraft crashes?


No, pilot error is often the root cause. You wrote that "leading cause of all aircraft accidents" its false. About these MAX accidents... authorities all ready know a lot more than we do. Thats why the plane is grounded.
 
SurlyBonds
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Tue Mar 12, 2019 11:29 pm

bob75013 wrote:

That carries about as much weight as Trumps statement about planes being too complicated to operate.


In point of fact, it carries quite a bit of weight, because he's on the Commerce Committee (which also has jurisdiction over transportation), and because he's so anti-regulatory.

And of course, Cruz has not weighed in at all on how to operate aircraft. He's weighing in on policy. Which is, uh, kinda the job of a US Senator.

bob75013 wrote:
As to the FAA, the FAA has a long history of taking action when it becomes aware of a know verifiable thing that requires action.So far there is none.


So you've slept through the first 23 pages of this thread, and are allowing T-Tailed Twat to summarize for you?
Last edited by SurlyBonds on Tue Mar 12, 2019 11:44 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
ZaphodHarkonnen
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Tue Mar 12, 2019 11:29 pm

 
IAmGaroott
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Tue Mar 12, 2019 11:30 pm

I feel the EU and China are being opportunistic with these hasty groundings.

What better way to stuff Airbus' backlog than putting in the public's head that the MAX is unsafe? China could be doing the same as a ploy to shoehorn whatever commercial ac they make into western markets.

Just my :twocents:
 
747megatop
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Tue Mar 12, 2019 11:31 pm

747megatop wrote:
MSPNWA wrote:
ytz wrote:
A precautionary grounding of a type is not assigning blame. Did you think the same thing when the FAA put on a precautionary grounding of the 787?


In a way it definitely is. The whole point of grounding something/someone is to mitigate risk. By grounding airplanes and the airlines, authorities have determined their preliminary belief as to who/what is primarily to blame. They wouldn't ground something they don't believe is the likeliest source. If they're grounding the MAX just because it's the easiest thing to do, well, then that's not good either.

When the 787 was grounded, there was no doubt that the airplane itself was to blame. Apples and oranges.

Well, Apples or Oranges, the end goal is preventing loss of lives. Good that the 787 issue did not result in loss of lives.

Otherwise..imagine before grounding the 787 fleet; what if 2 787s went down due to fire with loss of lives...then a.net would be all over the place...wait till we get the facts..we don't know if the fire was due to some flammable cargo OR sabotage etc.; ironically, in such a hypothetical scenario it would actually be a case of don't ground the aircraft because before investigations completed they probably would not have been able to definitively determine cause/source of fire. Unlike in this (MAX) case where clearly pilots reported flight control problems before aircraft went down. So, prudent approach in the MAX case is to ground the fleet before investigators understand if it is a aircraft design flaw; operating manual inadequacy; human machine interface issue; training inadequacy ; or a combination of all of these etc. etc. I think regulators have acted prudently accross the world to prevent a potential disaster of a MAX coming down in a densely populated place. The onus is on Boeing & other stake holders to prove to the regulatory & certification authorities that the aircraft is 100% safe to fly after the root cause comes out and fixes are in place
Last edited by 747megatop on Tue Mar 12, 2019 11:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
edu2703
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Tue Mar 12, 2019 11:32 pm

Canada's minister of transport Marc Garneau will meet with reporters to discuss the 737 Max "safety and security" tomorrow 11:00 a.m. EDT
 
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keesje
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Tue Mar 12, 2019 11:35 pm

IAmGaroott wrote:
I feel the EU and China are being opportunistic with these hasty groundings.

What better way to stuff Airbus' backlog than putting in the public's head that the MAX is unsafe? China could be doing the same as a ploy to shoehorn whatever commercial ac they make into western markets.

Just my :twocents:


Nope. Two similar crashes on a new aircraft, 300 bodies. Better have a good look before next flight.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
747megatop
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Tue Mar 12, 2019 11:35 pm

IAmGaroott wrote:
I feel the EU and China are being opportunistic with these hasty groundings.

What better way to stuff Airbus' backlog than putting in the public's head that the MAX is unsafe? China could be doing the same as a ploy to shoehorn whatever commercial ac they make into western markets.

Just my :twocents:

I sincerely hope that is not true. If that is true that will be the saddest day in aviation; where safety takes back seat to politics. I have the utmost confidence (& hope) in regulatory authorities in most countries to get to the truth and do the right thing in the interests of safety in aerospace.
 
Magog
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Tue Mar 12, 2019 11:36 pm

Flydubai 730 (Kiev to Dubai) has turned around.
 
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flyingclrs727
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Tue Mar 12, 2019 11:40 pm

From the Dallas Morning News website about 16:30 CDT

Boeing 737 Max 8 pilots complained to feds for months about suspected safety flaw

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1417739
 
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Jouhou
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Tue Mar 12, 2019 11:40 pm

747megatop wrote:
IAmGaroott wrote:
I feel the EU and China are being opportunistic with these hasty groundings.

What better way to stuff Airbus' backlog than putting in the public's head that the MAX is unsafe? China could be doing the same as a ploy to shoehorn whatever commercial ac they make into western markets.

Just my :twocents:

I sincerely hope that is not true. If that is true that will be the saddest day in aviation; where safety takes back seat to politics. I have the utmost confidence (& hope) in regulatory authorities in most countries to get to the truth and do the right thing in the interests of safety in aerospace.



I don't think the a320 has enough open production slots in the near future for this to be worthwhile. Even if the max was deemed universally unsafe it would still have customers because of the size of the competition's backlog.
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THS214
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Tue Mar 12, 2019 11:42 pm

TTailedTiger wrote:
anfromme wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
But Lion Air crashed two airplanes just a couple of months apart.

So are you saying the 737-800 and -900 should be grounded as well because Lion Air had a number of runway excursions (one ending in water) with them?
No? OK, I was worried there for a second you'd lost all sense of commensurability.
Are you comparing runway excursions resulting in minor injuries with a high-speed nose-dives into the sea?
No? OK, again, I was worried there for a second you'd lost all sense of commensurability.

What then, though?
Do you realize that your behaviour borders on classic trolling?
In this thread you've thrown out tons of questions and allegations (often strawman-like, e.g. the whole "they're trying to kill the MAX/blame Boeing/hang Boeing" line) that people take great lengths to respond to, which you only respond to with more one-to-five-liners consisting of more questions/allegations/strawmen... With which the thread goes around in circles, as you've now brought up LionAir's overall safety record for the x-th time despite the fact that this has already been discussed at length even before your first post on the matter, and despite the fact that you alone have brought it up a few times, with other board members pointing out how runway excursions are not the same as high-speed nose-dives, and how the common denominator with the ET and JT crashes is not JT to begin with.

A fair summary would be that you
a) are unconvinced the grounding in necessary until there is a proven cause
b) are unconvinced the two crashes are connected
c) associate the grounding with putting (unfair) blame on the manufacturer
d) perceive crash causes to be black and white - human error or machine error, and it's mostly the former, really
e) don't think the role of Lion Air as an incompetent airline is being appreciated to the appropriate level

...whereas most other members on this thread
a) think that given the parallels and the unusually high crash rate of the MAX it's prudent to leave it on the ground precisely because a root cause is not known yet and more lives might be at risk
b) are not 100% certain the two crashes are connected, but first indications are that there is a good chance they are; it certainly shouldn't be discounted
c) associate grounding with putting safety first, regardless of the manufacturer
d) perceive crashes to be caused by chains of (individually unlikely and/or non-fatal) events that contribute to an undesired outcome
e) appreciate Lion Air is a dodgy airline but don't think that this alone explains all of what led to JT610 killing everyone on board.

Seems a fair summary?
Because it seems that "agreeing to disagree" is the best course of action at this point.


Yes it is fair to agree to disagree. I agree there is no point in going around in circles. And still, no one has answered my question of what will satisfy these governments. If they won't take the word of the FAA and Bleinf then who are they willing to listen to?


For whatever reason... Maybe FAA is wrong this time?
 
downdata
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Tue Mar 12, 2019 11:42 pm

Really? The FAA had any credibility to start with? They are in the pockets of Boeing and other US aircraft manufacturers since the dawn of time. They were relucatant to ground the DC10 as they are with the 787 and 737
 
barrey
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Tue Mar 12, 2019 11:43 pm

I know I should be posting speculation and completely unfounded rumors (sorry), but here are some actual pilot reports from apparently USA-based pilots discussing anomalies in the Autothrottle, Autopilot, or MCAS systems on the MAX8.

These are from the United States ASRS - Aviation Safety Reporting System - Run by NASA as a neutral party.

https://www.documentcloud.org/documents ... -max8.html

After reading these, I believe there may be a "corner case" situation where this aircraft can be unrecoverable without very quick action.

Think that grounding it may be the right thing to do here.

-Barrey
 
bob75013
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Tue Mar 12, 2019 11:43 pm

SurlyBonds wrote:
bob75013 wrote:

That carries about as much weight as Trumps statement about planes being too complicated to operate.


In point of fact, it carries quite a bit of weight, because he's on the Commerce Committee (which also has jurisdiction over transportation), and because he's so anti-regulatory.

And of course, Cruz has not weighed in at all on how to operate aircraft. He's weighing in on policy. Which is, uh, kinda the job of a US Senator.

bob75013 wrote:
As to the FAA, the FAA has a long history of taking action when it becomes aware of a know verifiable thing that requires action.So far there is none.


So you've slept through the first 23 pages of this thread, and allowing T-Tailed Twat to summarize for you?


Haven't you heard? The FAA speaks for itself

A review by FAA has found that there is no basis to ground the 737 Max.

The FAA also stated that other civil aviation authorities have not provided data that would warrant action at this time.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/12/faa-adm ... craft.html
 
prebennorholm
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Tue Mar 12, 2019 11:43 pm

piedmontf284000 wrote:
A review by FAA has found that there is no basis to ground the 737 Max.

The FAA also stated that other civil aviation authorities have not provided data that would warrant action at this time.

Huh, that doesn't look good. The authorities seem not to know their role.

It is not the task of "other civil aviation authorities" to convince the FAA that the MAX is unsafe.
It is the task of the FAA to convince other civil aviation authorities that the MAX is safe.

Dear FAA, please tell us the details of your review which made you conclude so, you may know something which we don't know. This issue is too serious, you cannot just tell the world your binary conclusion without any data to back it up. It is your job to convince the customers of U.S. produced planes that they are safe. That cannot be done by only a :checkmark: or a :thumbsdown: You must provide data.

Two examples of a new type crashed within a short time frame a few minutes after takeoff with serious pitch control problems which the crews failed to overcome. In clear daylight. That is unprecedented in the history of modern air traffic. Dear FAA, tell us what you know which makes you confident at this early stage that this is not fully or partly design related, but fully OPS related - training, MX etc.
Always keep your number of landings equal to your number of take-offs
 
MSPNWA
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Tue Mar 12, 2019 11:44 pm

D L X wrote:
Better than my current sparring partner.

If you disagree, explain it.


Clearly we can't have a coherent discussion. There's no point to continue.

747megatop wrote:
Well, Apples or Oranges, the end goal is preventing loss of lives. Good that the 787 issue did not result in loss of lives.

Otherwise..imagine before grounding the 787 fleet; what if 2 787s went down due to fire with loss of lives...then a.net would be all over the place...wait till we get the facts..we don't know if the fire was due to some flammable cargo OR sabotage etc.; ironically, in such a hypothetical scenario it would actually be a case of don't ground the aircraft because before investigations completed they probably would not have been able to definitively determine cause/source of fire. Unlike in this (MAX) case where clearly pilots reported flight control problems before aircraft went down. So, prudent approach in the MAX case is to ground the fleet before investigators understand if it is a aircraft design flaw; operating manual inadequacy; human machine interface issue; training inadequacy ; or a combination of all of these etc. etc. in this case. I think regulators have acted prudently across the world to prevent a potential disaster of a MAX coming down in a densely populated place.


I agree that's the goal.

Your hypothetical completely changes the situation and ironically gives us a reason for why the MAX shouldn't be grounded. We have no concrete evidence that the airplane is to blame in the ET crash.

You believe it's prudent to ground the MAX. That's not an unacceptable belief. However I question the desire to ground the MAX on the basis of "extreme caution" when there's other known safety issues currently being investigated. For example we know that Lion Air played its part in their crash, and their safety record is very suspect. A 767 just fell out of the sky a couple weeks ago with no known cause. Yet there's no "abundance of caution" in those events. For example, if it's all about safety, why is Lion Air allowed to operate with their known issues? Why are we flying 767s until we know what happened? Intentional or not, authorities have drawn a line on "safe enough", and it doesn't look pretty or noble. It seems more driven by public hysteria than facts and thoughtful study. I hope it isn't, because that's not what we need from safety authorities.
 
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LockheedBBD
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Tue Mar 12, 2019 11:47 pm

edu2703 wrote:
Canada's minister of transport Marc Garneau will meet with reporters to discuss the 737 Max "safety and security" tomorrow 11:00 a.m. EDT


Canada has already stated this evening that they have no plans on grounding the 737 MAX. It's likely just a Q&A session for the press.
 
denkcflyer
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Tue Mar 12, 2019 11:48 pm

Is the fact that the FAA and Boeing are holding out on grounding, due to them not having enough information to make a decision yet? Or because they are in the know about the LionAir and Ethiopian crashes and don’t see a correlation or a cause for concern?

Or do we even know?
 
Derico
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Tue Mar 12, 2019 11:48 pm

IAmGaroott wrote:
I feel the EU and China are being opportunistic with these hasty groundings.

What better way to stuff Airbus' backlog than putting in the public's head that the MAX is unsafe? China could be doing the same as a ploy to shoehorn whatever commercial ac they make into western markets.

Just my :twocents:


So can you accept that if the rest of the world has some hidden interest behind their actions, that they are also entitled to conclude that the US has a hidden interest due to its lack of action, so they had to act even if the data is still quite preminary?
My internet was not shut down, the internet has shut me down
 
Magog
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Tue Mar 12, 2019 11:48 pm

It looks like Boeing has an aircraft doing touch and goes at Moses Lake. (MWH)
Last edited by Magog on Tue Mar 12, 2019 11:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
bob75013
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Tue Mar 12, 2019 11:49 pm

prebennorholm wrote:
piedmontf284000 wrote:
A review by FAA has found that there is no basis to ground the 737 Max.

The FAA also stated that other civil aviation authorities have not provided data that would warrant action at this time.

Huh, that doesn't look good. The authorities seem not to know their role.

It is not the task of "other civil aviation authorities" to convince the FAA that the MAX is unsafe.
It is the task of the FAA to convince other civil aviation authorities that the MAX is safe.



So you think the every aviation authority is keeping what they know "SECRET?" You don't think they are sharing everything they know?

Is that what you think, bunky?
 
TTailedTiger
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Tue Mar 12, 2019 11:51 pm

THS214 wrote:
CitizenJustin wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:

Yes, I have always said wait for the investigations to conclude before assigning blame.



You’re really getting beaten up here, so I thought I’d chime in. I think the rush to place full blame on the MAX is premature, considering we know absolutely nothing. I think the hysterics, and paranoia that’s spreading like wildfire on social media is a sign of the times. There’s been a lot of accusations of bias towards those who disagree with grounding, but there’s obviously a few Airbus fanboys reveling in this mess. Some are calling for the MAX to be permanently grounded, and scrapped. It doesn’t get more absurd than that. I hope cooler heads prevail, and the FAA is doing the right thing for the time being.

Cheers


Both "black boxes" have been found. Also preliminary data has been checked from both of them and after that came the grounding. Authorities know a lot than we do and its not pretty.


Let me get this straight. You haven't seen the data nor do you know if any governing bodies have seen it but you say it isn't pretty?
 
NYCVIE
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Tue Mar 12, 2019 11:51 pm

TTailedTiger wrote:
If it turns out to be negligence on the part of the crew or maintenance then Boeing should give some thought about whether to sell to exotic airlines. It doesn't seem to be worth the headache when they crash one. How many 737's has Lion Air crashed now? Maybe a stipulation that they will also not support used aircraft that have been sold to these airlines.


There's been a lot you've said I wanted to comment on but I find this to be the most outrageous one so I'll start here. I'm not sure what you mean by "exotic" airlines, but if you mean airlines from non-third world countries you can be sure Boeing will not in a million years do this as they happily sold over 200 MAX to LionAir even while they were still on the EU Blacklist. Boeing will sell their aircraft to whoever is going to pay for it, period.

Secondly, it's a bit off topic but Boeing already shot themselves in the foot because the Lion Air accident exposed that they did not adequately alert crews as to the intricacies of the MCAS on the new aircraft.

Third, to your point that people want to see Boeing "hurt", can I ask why they would want this? What does the EU gain from seeing Boeing "hurt" other than disrupting their own airlines. The only thing I can think of is protection of Airbus but based on that logic I could argue that by being one of two major regulatory bodies to NOT ground the aircraft the FAA is itself protecting Boeing. I don't necessarily believe that's the case but to me Boeing looked very shady in the statement they released earlier when they said since the FAA isn't recommending any action they don't have anything more to say. Why should any decision Boeing, the manufacturer of the aircraft, makes on the MAX have anything to do with the FAA? If Boeing feels that they should or shouldn't issue a directive to ground the aircraft they made they should follow that, but to mention the FAA suggests some cooperative relationship.

I'll end by saying I LOVE Boeing, and for that reason I think they should exercise caution here. Because at the end of the day, if MCAS does have anything to do with ET, when WN, AA, UA, WS, and AC ground their fleets they won't hesitate to toss their "complete confidence in the aircraft" and go straight to Boeing for some answers and bills to pay. And I don't know how Boeing would dig themselves out of that hole.
 
SurlyBonds
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Tue Mar 12, 2019 11:52 pm

bob75013 wrote:

Haven't you heard? The FAA speaks for itself


Um, no, it doesn't (but thanks for playing). See, there's this wee little thing called "congressional oversight of the executive branch." Congress is 100% within its rights to comment on what federal agencies do. It does so *all* *the* *time.

The only thing novel here is that in this day and age of political polarization, Elizabeth Warren, Dianne Feinstein Mitt Romney, and Ted Cruz have found common ground on something more substantive than renaming post-offices: #GroundTheMax.

bob75013 wrote:
A review by FAA has found that there is no basis to ground the 737 Max.


This is just the FAA reiterating, incorrectly, that it believes that it has an affirmative obligation to prove the 737 MAX is dangerous, rather than the burden resting on Boeing to prove it is safe. Which is a twisted, warped view of how things should be. And not only that, but your argument ignores all those reports over the past hour or so stating that several US pilots have reported problems with the 737 MAX pitching down *regardless* of whether the autopilot is on, not to mention the known MCAS problems.
 
IADCA
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Tue Mar 12, 2019 11:55 pm

IAmGaroott wrote:
I feel the EU and China are being opportunistic with these hasty groundings.

What better way to stuff Airbus' backlog than putting in the public's head that the MAX is unsafe? China could be doing the same as a ploy to shoehorn whatever commercial ac they make into western markets.

Just my :twocents:


Sure, but that ignores all the other jurisdictions that grounded it and all the airlines that did so absent regulatory action (including carriers that face a lot of business risk if Boeing takes a long-term reputational hit, and smaller carriers that are grounding significant portions of their fleets).
Last edited by IADCA on Wed Mar 13, 2019 12:06 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
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flyingclrs727
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Tue Mar 12, 2019 11:55 pm

prebennorholm wrote:
piedmontf284000 wrote:
A review by FAA has found that there is no basis to ground the 737 Max.

The FAA also stated that other civil aviation authorities have not provided data that would warrant action at this time.

Huh, that doesn't look good. The authorities seem not to know their role.

It is not the task of "other civil aviation authorities" to convince the FAA that the MAX is unsafe.
It is the task of the FAA to convince other civil aviation authorities that the MAX is safe.

Dear FAA, please tell us the details of your review which made you conclude so, you may know something which we don't know. This issue is too serious, you cannot just tell the world your binary conclusion without any data to back it up. It is your job to convince the customers of U.S. produced planes that they are safe. That cannot be done by only a :checkmark: or a :thumbsdown: You must provide data.

Two examples of a new type crashed within a short time frame a few minutes after takeoff with serious pitch control problems which the crews failed to overcome. In clear daylight. That is unprecedented in the history of modern air traffic. Dear FAA, tell us what you know which makes you confident at this early stage that this is not fully or partly design related, but fully OPS related - training, MX etc.


Well at least 4 senators favor grounding the Max 8 fleet including Senator Ted Cruz who chairs the subcommitee that oversees aviation.

From the Dallas Morning News website about 16:30 CDT

Boeing 737 Max 8 pilots complained to feds for months about suspected safety flaw

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1417739

Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), who leads a Senate subcommittee overseeing aviation, said in a statement Tuesday that U.S. authorities should ground the planes.
 
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ACCS300
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Tue Mar 12, 2019 11:55 pm

LockheedBBD wrote:
edu2703 wrote:
Canada's minister of transport Marc Garneau will meet with reporters to discuss the 737 Max "safety and security" tomorrow 11:00 a.m. EDT


Canada has already stated this evening that they have no plans on grounding the 737 MAX. It's likely just a Q&A session for the press.


Garneau's hands are tied. Canada is proportionally the most MAX dependant country in the world at the moment, with roughly 1/8 of all MAXs flying the grounding would be crippling to AC and somewhat disruptive to WS with 24 and 13 respectively. IMO that is precisely the reason for not grounding the MAX in Canada.
 
CBBW
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Tue Mar 12, 2019 11:55 pm

anfromme wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
But Lion Air crashed two airplanes just a couple of months apart.

So are you saying the 737-800 and -900 should be grounded as well because Lion Air had a number of runway excursions (one ending in water) with them?
No? OK, I was worried there for a second you'd lost all sense of commensurability.
Are you comparing runway excursions resulting in minor injuries with a high-speed nose-dives into the sea?
No? OK, again, I was worried there for a second you'd lost all sense of commensurability.

What then, though?
Do you realize that your behaviour borders on classic trolling?
In this thread you've thrown out tons of questions and allegations (often strawman-like, e.g. the whole "they're trying to kill the MAX/blame Boeing/hang Boeing" line) that people take great lengths to respond to, which you only respond to with more one-to-five-liners consisting of more questions/allegations/strawmen... With which the thread goes around in circles, as you've now brought up LionAir's overall safety record for the x-th time despite the fact that this has already been discussed at length even before your first post on the matter, and despite the fact that you alone have brought it up a few times, with other board members pointing out how runway excursions are not the same as high-speed nose-dives, and how the common denominator with the ET and JT crashes is not JT to begin with.

A fair summary would be that you
a) are unconvinced the grounding in necessary until there is a proven cause
b) are unconvinced the two crashes are connected
c) associate the grounding with putting (unfair) blame on the manufacturer
d) perceive crash causes to be black and white - human error or machine error, and it's mostly the former, really
e) don't think the role of Lion Air as an incompetent airline is being appreciated to the appropriate level

...whereas most other members on this thread
a) think that given the parallels and the unusually high crash rate of the MAX it's prudent to leave it on the ground precisely because a root cause is not known yet and more lives might be at risk
b) are not 100% certain the two crashes are connected, but first indications are that there is a good chance they are; it certainly shouldn't be discounted
c) associate grounding with putting safety first, regardless of the manufacturer
d) perceive crashes to be caused by chains of (individually unlikely and/or non-fatal) events that contribute to an undesired outcome
e) appreciate Lion Air is a dodgy airline but don't think that this alone explains all of what led to JT610 killing everyone on board.

Seems a fair summary?
Because it seems that "agreeing to disagree" is the best course of action at this point.


Thank you!
 
Cathay777300ER
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Tue Mar 12, 2019 11:57 pm

This is absolutely disgusting that people are questioning the motives of EASA, the FAA, the CAAC, and others. Safety agencies do not have motivations for financial gain. It is unacceptable for these to be considered. I will add that likely different aviation design thoughts might affect the decisions of certain agencies. North American design principles are different to European and Chinese. The Europeans and Chinese might consider the levels unsafe while the Americans and Canadians think things are safe. It is absolutely disgusting to have people on different sides of this debate question EASA and FAA motivations. Both work together a considerable amount however don't always have 100% agreement on actions to take.
 
THS214
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Tue Mar 12, 2019 11:58 pm

TTailedTiger wrote:
THS214 wrote:
CitizenJustin wrote:


You’re really getting beaten up here, so I thought I’d chime in. I think the rush to place full blame on the MAX is premature, considering we know absolutely nothing. I think the hysterics, and paranoia that’s spreading like wildfire on social media is a sign of the times. There’s been a lot of accusations of bias towards those who disagree with grounding, but there’s obviously a few Airbus fanboys reveling in this mess. Some are calling for the MAX to be permanently grounded, and scrapped. It doesn’t get more absurd than that. I hope cooler heads prevail, and the FAA is doing the right thing for the time being.

Cheers


Both "black boxes" have been found. Also preliminary data has been checked from both of them and after that came the grounding. Authorities know a lot than we do and its not pretty.


Let me get this straight. You haven't seen the data nor do you know if any governing bodies have seen it but you say it isn't pretty?


Are you saying that the the plane in grounded without a reason? That different bodies just ground it because they can? They know a lot more than we do and they have grounded the plane.
 
SurlyBonds
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Tue Mar 12, 2019 11:59 pm

TTailedTwat wrote:
But Lion Air crashed two airplanes just a couple of months apart.


Do you not grasp that a event, including an airplane crash, can have more than one cause? I have no doubt that Lion Air was negligent in allowing the plane to fly after the reports of its malfunctioning on earlier flights. But that still leaves open the question of what was causing the malfunctions to begin with. And Boeing has ADMITTED it did not tell pilots about MCAS.
 
NYCVIE
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Wed Mar 13, 2019 12:00 am

IAmGaroott wrote:
I feel the EU and China are being opportunistic with these hasty groundings.

What better way to stuff Airbus' backlog than putting in the public's head that the MAX is unsafe? China could be doing the same as a ploy to shoehorn whatever commercial ac they make into western markets.

Just my :twocents:


This is always a possibility, but I really doubt it. The UK grounded the aircraft before the EU. Someone mentioned it earlier but if the UK was playing politics it would be in the opposite of their best interest to do this since they're leaving the EU and need a new trade agreement with the US.

If anything, and I say this as an American, I think it would be more likely that the FAA is playing politics by holding out to protect Boeing. Not saying this is the case, but what I think would be more likely. And I can't say the EU wouldn't do the same if the roles were reversed but the last time Boeing/FAA were in a similar situation (787) they ended up looking like they were trying to just cover their asses and were forced into doing what in the end looks like was the right thing to do all along.

EDIT - I just wanted to include that I do think if the FAA believed/found evidence there was something dire wrong with this plane they would ground it. But it seems the other regulatory bodies are acting cautionary while the FAA may be looking for proof which is not necessarily wrong but just not as cautious.
Last edited by NYCVIE on Wed Mar 13, 2019 12:03 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
716131
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Wed Mar 13, 2019 12:00 am

Isn't all MAX now grounded all over the world except for US and Canadian customers?
If it's not Boeing, I'm not going!
 
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keesje
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Wed Mar 13, 2019 12:02 am

LockheedBBD wrote:
edu2703 wrote:
Canada's minister of transport Marc Garneau will meet with reporters to discuss the 737 Max "safety and security" tomorrow 11:00 a.m. EDT


Canada has already stated this evening that they have no plans on grounding the 737 MAX. It's likely just a Q&A session for the press.


It seems Canadian unions and passengers are less confident.

https://globalnews.ca/news/5049502/air- ... 737-max-8/

Marc Garneau will explain everybodyhow how the Australian, UK and German authorities see it wrong, I guess.
Last edited by keesje on Wed Mar 13, 2019 12:06 am, edited 1 time in total.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
downdata
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Wed Mar 13, 2019 12:02 am

Any bets on how soon FAA is going to ground the Maxs?
 
Cathay777300ER
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Wed Mar 13, 2019 12:03 am

SQ789 wrote:
Isn't all MAX now grounded all over the world except for US and Canadian customers?


Theoretically Fiji, SCAT, S7 and COPA are still flying there's.

Fiji can't fly to New Zealand or Australia which is most MAX routes
SCAT can't fly to Dubai which since Pakistans airspace closer has been the way they get to Phuket. Might be on other routes like domestic or Russia for now then.
S7 should have no issues unless Russia bans maxes
COPA should have no issues besides maybe Brazil
Last edited by Cathay777300ER on Wed Mar 13, 2019 12:06 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
TTailedTiger
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Wed Mar 13, 2019 12:03 am

THS214 wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
THS214 wrote:


Both "black boxes" have been found. Also preliminary data has been checked from both of them and after that came the grounding. Authorities know a lot than we do and its not pretty.


Let me get this straight. You haven't seen the data nor do you know if any governing bodies have seen it but you say it isn't pretty?


Are you saying that the the plane in grounded without a reason? That different bodies just ground it because they can? They know a lot more than we do and they have grounded the plane.


Don't try and get out of what you said. You said they knew what was on those flight recorders and it "isn't pretty". So tell is what exactly was on them or retract that statement. There is no way you coul possibly have such information.
 
mjoelnir
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Wed Mar 13, 2019 12:04 am

CitizenJustin wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
Magog wrote:
Is this meant to imply that your approach has been neutral?


Yes, I have always said wait for the investigations to conclude before assigning blame.



You’re really getting beaten up here, so I thought I’d chime in. I think the rush to place full blame on the MAX is premature, considering we know absolutely nothing. I think the hysterics, and paranoia that’s spreading like wildfire on social media is a sign of the times. There’s been a lot of accusations of bias towards those who disagree with grounding, but there’s obviously a few Airbus fanboys reveling in this mess. Some are calling for the MAX to be permanently grounded, and scrapped. It doesn’t get more absurd than that. I hope cooler heads prevail, and the FAA is doing the right thing for the time being.

Cheers


You and many others, including the FAA on its high horse, just do not understand why many airlines and authorities do ground the 737MAX.

It is exactly because there are two accidents in a short time period of the same new type and nobody knows why. It is a grounding because lack of information about if the 737MAX is safe. Because the two accidents are still unexplained It is the philosophy of demanding the proof of safety to fly a certain frame, rather than demanding the proof of lack of safety to stop flying a frame. It is a precautionary measure. It is in no way connected to apportion blame.

The stand of the FAA in this case is not according to their role as a safety agency, one of their roles, but rather as a defender and promoter of the USA aircraft industry, their other role.
 
DeltaB717
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Wed Mar 13, 2019 12:06 am

Having read through the 1,227 posts so far in this thread, I'd like to share a few observations... here goes:

* The question was asked and, as far as I could see, not answered as to whether those with kids [and I'm going to extend that to loved ones of all varieties - partners, spouses, parents, grandparents/grandkids, aunts, uncles, cousins, the works] would feel comfortable putting those people on a 737 MAX. My answer to that is that I, personally and travelling alone, would probably not hesitate to travel on a MAX; but, I would be very hesitant to travel on a MAX with my wife, parents or other family (or to have them travel on one without me). In the latter case, I would try to find alternative flights or routes to avoid the MAX. Just in case. But, just in case, I echo the sentiment of the person who originally posed this question that this is why regulators and operators have, in many instances, chosen to exclude the MAX from the system.

* People in this thread are making a lot, and I mean a LOT, of the FR24 data... from a sparsely populated rural area of Ethiopia. As though the FR24 data is somehow the holy grail of information upon which to form conclusions about the cause of a plane crash. It isn't, even in a place where FR24 data is significantly more reliable.

* This thread is also making quite a bit of 'we don't know this' and 'we don't know that', as if the information available to the general public and posted on a website/forum for aviation enthusiasts is all the information there is to know about a situation, as though that information is somehow enough for the regulators and operators in our beloved industry to rely solely upon. Again, it isn't. It really isn't. There is, I've no doubt, a vast wealth of information available to the regulators and the operators (and to Boeing, obviously) that "we don't know" but that is no doubt behind more than one of the decisions being made by those regulators and operators (and, I'd like to think, Boeing). We, the public, don't need to know everything, we just need to know that those who are 'in the know' are doing what they can to keep us safe... and I suppose that leads me into my next point.

* On balance (and I sat on the fence for a really long time over whether I thought, as an enthusiast but also a regulator (not an aviation safety regulator, I hasten to add)), I feel that Singapore, Australia, the UK, the EU and others have made the right choice. And quite likely the only choice available to them. To be fair, Singapore probably started with the 'applying pressure' (whether that was their intention or not) and others have chosen to follow suit, demonstrate leadership, apply further pressure, etc. - and the more that do that, the more pressure there is for others to follow. The public in those jurisdictions no doubt feel (rightly or wrongly, we won't know until the investigations find something conclusive) that their respective regulators are 'keeping them safe', and the opposite is what is fueling the negative sentiment towards the FAA and Boeing....

* ... but, of course, there are good reasons for Boeing and the FAA (and, I suspect, for TCCA) to hold off on following suit. If Boeing says all operators should ground their MAX fleets, it will be seen as an admission that something is wrong, the type is flawed, and Boeing will be pursued for compensation for any losses incurred while the type is forcibly out of service. Likewise if the FAA orders a grounding, not to mention the questions that would be directed towards their certification processes. The TCCA could have any number of motives, including I'm sure that if they order a grounding in Canada that would most likely force the FAA's hand, and also wishing to avoid further conflict with Boeing. Of course, and most importantly, I am absolutely positive they genuinely believe (and no doubt for good reason) the MAX is safe. As do I. The very issue of pressure from other jurisdictions is likely to mean the US and Canada won't hold out too much longer, but I suspect the (first) move will come from the operators, not from Boeing or the regulators.

* Finally, given the air time being given to human factors, I want to share my thoughts on that aspect. I'm neither a pilot, an avionics technician, or a human factors expert. I am, however, in the industry (and have been for a while), a lifelong enthusiast, and know more than enough to keep me out of trouble. So I'm curious to know whether those who ARE more expert than myself believe a software update will suffice in addressing the issues with MCAS and with the handling of the MCAS? Is the software capable of being updated to such an extent that the issue should resolve and pilots should no longer have difficulty in handling the aircraft? Or would people prefer to see physical changes, such as perhaps moving the trim cutoff switch to the yoke so the pilot handling doesn't need to take one hand off the yoke at a time when they need to apply as much pressure to the yoke as possible (i.e. they're 'fighting the aircraft')?
 
bob75013
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Wed Mar 13, 2019 12:07 am

SurlyBonds wrote:
bob75013 wrote:

Haven't you heard? The FAA speaks for itself


Um, no, it doesn't (but thanks for playing). See, there's this wee little thing called "congressional oversight of the executive branch." Congress is 100% within its rights to comment on what federal agencies do. It does so *all* *the* *time.

The only thing novel here is that in this day and age of political polarization, Elizabeth Warren, Dianne Feinstein Mitt Romney, and Ted Cruz have found common ground on something more substantive than renaming post-offices: #GroundTheMax.

bob75013 wrote:
A review by FAA has found that there is no basis to ground the 737 Max.


This is just the FAA reiterating, incorrectly, that it believes that it has an affirmative obligation to prove the 737 MAX is dangerous, rather than the burden resting on Boeing to prove it is safe. Which is a twisted, warped view of how things should be. And not only that, but your argument ignores all those reports over the past hour or so stating that several US pilots have reported problems with the 737 MAX pitching down *regardless* of whether the autopilot is on, not to mention the known MCAS problems.


Boeing proved to the FAA that the MAX is safe. That's why the FAA said the aircraft is airworthy and not being grounded. If you know more, please contact the FAA.
 
D L X
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Wed Mar 13, 2019 12:10 am

MSPNWA wrote:
D L X wrote:
Better than my current sparring partner.

If you disagree, explain it.


Clearly we can't have a coherent discussion. There's no point to continue.
.



Right. You didn’t recognize your own ad hominem, so you’re going to run away.

There is plenty of intelligent discussion here if you want to act like it.
 
bob75013
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Wed Mar 13, 2019 12:11 am

keesje wrote:
LockheedBBD wrote:
edu2703 wrote:
Canada's minister of transport Marc Garneau will meet with reporters to discuss the 737 Max "safety and security" tomorrow 11:00 a.m. EDT


Canada has already stated this evening that they have no plans on grounding the 737 MAX. It's likely just a Q&A session for the press.


It seems Canadian unions and passengers are less confident.

https://globalnews.ca/news/5049502/air- ... 737-max-8/

Marc Garneau will explain everybodyhow how the Australian, UK and German authorities see it wrong, I guess.



No I suspect that he will say that Canada refuses to listen to lemmings who are listening to those who scream GROUND IT at the tops of their lungs.
He'll say he knows of no reason to ground it - yet, and if a reason becomes apparent, then Canada will take action.
 
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keesje
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Wed Mar 13, 2019 12:11 am

bob75013 wrote:
SurlyBonds wrote:
bob75013 wrote:

Haven't you heard? The FAA speaks for itself


Um, no, it doesn't (but thanks for playing). See, there's this wee little thing called "congressional oversight of the executive branch." Congress is 100% within its rights to comment on what federal agencies do. It does so *all* *the* *time.

The only thing novel here is that in this day and age of political polarization, Elizabeth Warren, Dianne Feinstein Mitt Romney, and Ted Cruz have found common ground on something more substantive than renaming post-offices: #GroundTheMax.

bob75013 wrote:
A review by FAA has found that there is no basis to ground the 737 Max.


This is just the FAA reiterating, incorrectly, that it believes that it has an affirmative obligation to prove the 737 MAX is dangerous, rather than the burden resting on Boeing to prove it is safe. Which is a twisted, warped view of how things should be. And not only that, but your argument ignores all those reports over the past hour or so stating that several US pilots have reported problems with the 737 MAX pitching down *regardless* of whether the autopilot is on, not to mention the known MCAS problems.


Boeing proved to the FAA that the MAX is safe. That's why the FAA said the aircraft is airworthy and not being grounded. If you know more, please contact the FAA.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
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GEUltraFan9XGTF
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Wed Mar 13, 2019 12:12 am

Reports of complaints by American pilots about the MAX being reported by the Dallas Morning News:

https://www.dallasnews.com/business/air ... afety-flaw
© 2020. All statements are my own. The use of my statements, including by journalists, YouTube vloggers like "DJ's Aviation", etc. without my written consent is strictly prohibited.
 
THS214
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Wed Mar 13, 2019 12:13 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
THS214 wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:

Let me get this straight. You haven't seen the data nor do you know if any governing bodies have seen it but you say it isn't pretty?


Are you saying that the the plane in grounded without a reason? That different bodies just ground it because they can? They know a lot more than we do and they have grounded the plane.


Don't try and get out of what you said. You said they knew what was on those flight recorders and it "isn't pretty". So tell is what exactly was on them or retract that statement. There is no way you coul possibly have such information.


I don't have the information neither do you. But those who make the decisions do. Thats why they grounded the plane.
 
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keesje
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Wed Mar 13, 2019 12:14 am

bob75013 wrote:
SurlyBonds wrote:
bob75013 wrote:

Haven't you heard? The FAA speaks for itself


Um, no, it doesn't (but thanks for playing). See, there's this wee little thing called "congressional oversight of the executive branch." Congress is 100% within its rights to comment on what federal agencies do. It does so *all* *the* *time.

The only thing novel here is that in this day and age of political polarization, Elizabeth Warren, Dianne Feinstein Mitt Romney, and Ted Cruz have found common ground on something more substantive than renaming post-offices: #GroundTheMax.

bob75013 wrote:
A review by FAA has found that there is no basis to ground the 737 Max.


This is just the FAA reiterating, incorrectly, that it believes that it has an affirmative obligation to prove the 737 MAX is dangerous, rather than the burden resting on Boeing to prove it is safe. Which is a twisted, warped view of how things should be. And not only that, but your argument ignores all those reports over the past hour or so stating that several US pilots have reported problems with the 737 MAX pitching down *regardless* of whether the autopilot is on, not to mention the known MCAS problems.


Boeing proved to the FAA that the MAX is safe. That's why the FAA said the aircraft is airworthy and not being grounded. If you know more, please contact the FAA.


The FAA did and does all the testing and certification on the 737 MAX with Boeing. I would rather consult a more independent authority in this case. Wouldn't you?
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
SurlyBonds
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Wed Mar 13, 2019 12:15 am

bob75013 wrote:
Boeing proved to the FAA that the MAX is safe. That's why the FAA said the aircraft is airworthy and not being grounded. If you know more, please contact the FAA.


I do know more: two new airplanes have crashed within six moths of each other in suspiciously similar circumstances. The CEO of Ethiopian says ET310 experienced flight control issues. And now we have the AP reports that five US pilots (and possibly some in the PRC) have also experienced flight control issues. Boeing itself has said it is deploying new software to address these issues. (This is before we get to Boeing's history of obfuscation on the 737-200/300 rudder issues.) All this new evidence calls Boeing's original proof into question and shift the burden back to Boeing.

As for contacting the FAA, I've tweeted my opinion and dropped a note to my congressional representatives and Sens. Wicker and Cantwell.

#GroundTheMax
Last edited by SurlyBonds on Wed Mar 13, 2019 12:17 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
GalaxyFlyer
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Wed Mar 13, 2019 12:15 am

dtw2hyd wrote:
seb146 wrote:
There is very strong evidence to suggest that Lion Air crash could have been prevented if the Lion Air mechanics had done their jobs...


There isn't. Lion Air operated 133 x 737-200/300/400/800/900s since 1999. Only 11 MAXes.

Do you think in 19 years their AMTs never changed an AoA sensor on a 737, and how many NGs crashed because AMT didn't know how to install the AoA sensor? You cannot blame LN MX for software bugs. There is nothing airline MX can do with software, other than a reboot (or) look for an update.

I am all for wait for the final investigation report philosophy, just don't slip in doubts on any party until such time.


What IF installing an AoA sensor on a 7M is different, subtly but materially, different than on a Classic, NG? Do it the old way on new plane and different outcome.

GF
 
bob75013
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Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

Wed Mar 13, 2019 12:18 am

THS214 wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
THS214 wrote:

Are you saying that the the plane in grounded without a reason? That different bodies just ground it because they can? They know a lot more than we do and they have grounded the plane.


Don't try and get out of what you said. You said they knew what was on those flight recorders and it "isn't pretty". So tell is what exactly was on them or retract that statement. There is no way you coul possibly have such information.


I don't have the information neither do you. But those who make the decisions do. Thats why they grounded the plane.



I'll call that what it is: B.S.

THEY grounded the plane because people were screaming GROUND IT

AA 191 crashed and killed over 200 -- yet DC10s weren;t grounded until 16 days later after it became known what caused the crash. The difference: people weren't screaming GROUND IT..

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