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Exeiowa
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Re: B737MAX Grounded Worldwide

Thu Apr 04, 2019 3:01 am

Much arguing about stuff reminds me off the sceene from the Big Lebowski where John Goodmans character repeatedly ask is he wrong to which the dude replies "No Walter your not wrong your just a ......*

A lot of the internet reminds me of this.
 
planecane
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Re: B737MAX Grounded Worldwide

Thu Apr 04, 2019 3:10 am

PixelFlight wrote:
planecane wrote:
None of that indicates that the entire trim system needs to be redesigned. The problem is MCAS activating due to a single bad AoA sensor. The scenario that you are suggesting won't happen after the software changes (assuming the software is written properly).

I disagree. The software fix will not suppress the multiple unrelated alarms, nor the stick shaker. The actually proposed fix only add a yet another AoA disagree alarm without removing all the confusing information. This is a poor design. The information system must prioritize the information given to the pilot, directly pointing to the primary cause instead of pointing to the multiples consequences of an unknown issue that the pilot have to guess. The QF32 was a typical case that redefined how information have to be prioritized.

All that happens on the NG as well (and I assume the classic and Jurassic). Why is it suddenly an issue on the MAX if you take MCAS out of the equation?

From a design perspective, once they fixed the rudder reversal issue the 737 proved to be extremely safe until MCAS. If they fix MCAS, why would anything else need to be changed?
 
planecane
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Re: B737MAX Grounded Worldwide

Thu Apr 04, 2019 3:28 am

PixelFlight wrote:
jollo wrote:
Both seem to convey the idea that in the NG the two switches have different effects.

On the other hand, your diagram (dated 2017, so referring to the MAX) seems to indicate that operating any one (or both) switches results in the electric trim actuator to be disbled, so the same net effect.

And the schematic have a "MCAS ENGAGE" function into the FCC A/B box (center bottom). MCAS only exists on the 737 MAX.

jollo wrote:
So why the change between NG and MAX?

BTW, the labels PRI and B/U in the MAX are consistent with the fact that both have the same effect, but it's the whole setup that doesn't make sense: why 2 switches in series that should always be operated together per FCOM?.

Excellent question. There is certainly a lot of possible scenarios. I try this one: The new MCAS ENGAGE signal is different from the older autopilot signals and can't be mixed before the cutout switches. So Boeing have to add a third cutout switch for the MCAS signal, and this imply pilot training about the handling of this new switch and about the MCAS. As the goal was to not add any MAX training for the NG pilots, there redesigned the cutout switches to what's actually into the MAX. Maybe the confusion about the events that could require to cutout the stab trim was already there when the MAX was designed.

I may be misreading your post but I think you are confusing the cutout switches that operate based on control column movement with the cutout switches that turn off the electric trim. The MCAS signal is before those switches.
 
freakyrat
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Re: B737MAX Grounded Worldwide

Thu Apr 04, 2019 3:28 am

Waterbomber2 wrote:
Boof02671 wrote:


I doubt it.
The reason I doubt it is that pilots on both flights lost both AoA and airspeed indication accuracy.
You can't catch two sensors with one bird...

Same story with Lion Air.
The AoA sensor was replaced and tested, and the next flight same story, well, almost...

Issues in the ADIRU or wiring more likely.


Sensors could have gotten blocked by bugs etc. It has happened before.

As far as issues with the ADIRU or wiring, this is a possibilitythat I wonder is getting overlooked. One of the US carriers operating the MAX had to replace an AOA sensor on one of their MAX aircraft and also replaced the ADIRU just to be on the safe side.
 
Interested
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Re: B737MAX Grounded Worldwide

Thu Apr 04, 2019 4:43 am

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-ethio ... RF2W4?il=0

Independent review has been set up with an International team to look at safety of 737 Max and approve any changes etc

I guess the only concern is that it's the FAA who have set up this new review committee.

I would prefer if this had been imposed upon them rather than they set it up themselves
 
RickNRoll
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Re: B737MAX Grounded Worldwide

Thu Apr 04, 2019 5:32 am

casinterest wrote:
smartplane wrote:
zkojq wrote:

Considering that Boeing lied to the FAA about the maximum deflection that MCAS can move the horizontal stabilizer, I don't see why the rest of the plane shouldn't be retested. Boeing has already lied about MCAS, so what other systems have they lied about? I don't see why the rest of the plane shouldn't be "reaudited" so that compliance can be assured. The FAA completely failed in their duties, so can't really be trusted in this case.

What else has the Boeing MCAS and self-certifying teams and related management touched on the MAX, plus existing and to be released models? Lots of red flags for the FAA to investigate, except they are part of the problem.

Boeing didn't lie. They omitted details about a subsystem behavioral change that they though would save lies. Without a review process from external safety experts , they allowed a change to be made that cost many lives. Lives that cannot be reclaimed. The bargain of the change was that the pilots would remember their memory items to stop a runaway stabilizer. This was not checked with the pilots, and what the pilots didn't know cost many lives , and there can be no amount of bargaining to make up for those lost lives.

However stating the above. Boeing is making good on making a change to fix the MCAS, and a hearty review should be made by the FAA, and other certifying agencies including the airlines. The airplane manufacturing association is not like many other industries in the US. There are few manufacturers, and few certifying agencies. EASA should be involved. Their skipping of the initial rollout of a potential fix is bullshit. They should have been front and center even if not invited as a vested interest in Aviation safety. Their input should be valuable within and without, and that is the issue currently . Airbus and Boeing incestuously breed their own vesting parties. We need all parties present to represent the airlines, the consumers, and the airline industry to present a safe product.

When the final reports come out, Boeing will own a lot of the blame for the undocumented changes to MCAS, but the Pilots and Airlines will own a lot of issues due to CRM and training. If the Ethiopian crash is as similar to the Lion Air crash as we are all led to believe, then a lot of questions need to be asked of their Chief Pilots and Trainers as Boeing issued guidance 4 months before the crash to deal with these issues with MCAS.

The FAA and ETAS should retrench in light of the above and work hard to cross certify and verify vital changes to flight control behavior.


You are behind the news cycle. The Ethiopian pilots followed the Boeing recommendation and found the plane to be uncontrollable. Boeing should have grounded the MAX after the Indonesian crash instead of sending out a bulletin that was inadequate and misleading.

Did Boeing even test their recommendation?
 
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capshandler
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Re: B737MAX Grounded Worldwide

Thu Apr 04, 2019 5:35 am

freakyrat wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:
Boof02671 wrote:


I doubt it.
The reason I doubt it is that pilots on both flights lost both AoA and airspeed indication accuracy.
You can't catch two sensors with one bird...

Same story with Lion Air.
The AoA sensor was replaced and tested, and the next flight same story, well, almost...

Issues in the ADIRU or wiring more likely.


Sensors could have gotten blocked by bugs etc. It has happened before.

As far as issues with the ADIRU or wiring, this is a possibilitythat I wonder is getting overlooked. One of the US carriers operating the MAX had to replace an AOA sensor on one of their MAX aircraft and also replaced the ADIRU just to be on the safe side.


An AoA sensor can’t be blocked by bugs as the pitot. It’s visible during the walkaround so if something external happened you’re able to see it.
 
Interested
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Re: B737MAX Grounded Worldwide

Thu Apr 04, 2019 5:37 am

https://qz.com/1584233/boeing-737-max-w ... -training/

The news stories coming out each day just get worse and worse.

This article in has just come out on quartz.com

Basically a US pilot with 20 years experience did not feel the training he received to fly the new Max was adequate and he was not comfortable for the safety of his passengers as a result. So he complained and the above article details what happened next.

Ps he complained about the lack of training BEFORE the Lion Air crash.
 
Interested
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Re: B737MAX Grounded Worldwide

Thu Apr 04, 2019 5:48 am

He spotted himself (even with zero knowledge that MCAS even existed) that this wasn't the same plane he had been certified to fly. Based purely on changes in the cockpit

And he mentions that just a few seconds in a flight on a plane you aren't used to the new layout can impact the safety of your passengers when you have to figure out where switches are etc

He requested simulator training but none was available

An example of pilots caring more about safety than those above them in the chain
 
zoom321
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Re: B737MAX Grounded Worldwide

Thu Apr 04, 2019 6:10 am

RickNRoll wrote:
casinterest wrote:
smartplane wrote:
What else has the Boeing MCAS and self-certifying teams and related management touched on the MAX, plus existing and to be released models? Lots of red flags for the FAA to investigate, except they are part of the problem.

Boeing didn't lie. They omitted details about a subsystem behavioral change that they though would save lies. Without a review process from external safety experts , they allowed a change to be made that cost many lives. Lives that cannot be reclaimed. The bargain of the change was that the pilots would remember their memory items to stop a runaway stabilizer. This was not checked with the pilots, and what the pilots didn't know cost many lives , and there can be no amount of bargaining to make up for those lost lives.

However stating the above. Boeing is making good on making a change to fix the MCAS, and a hearty review should be made by the FAA, and other certifying agencies including the airlines. The airplane manufacturing association is not like many other industries in the US. There are few manufacturers, and few certifying agencies. EASA should be involved. Their skipping of the initial rollout of a potential fix is bullshit. They should have been front and center even if not invited as a vested interest in Aviation safety. Their input should be valuable within and without, and that is the issue currently . Airbus and Boeing incestuously breed their own vesting parties. We need all parties present to represent the airlines, the consumers, and the airline industry to present a safe product.

When the final reports come out, Boeing will own a lot of the blame for the undocumented changes to MCAS, but the Pilots and Airlines will own a lot of issues due to CRM and training. If the Ethiopian crash is as similar to the Lion Air crash as we are all led to believe, then a lot of questions need to be asked of their Chief Pilots and Trainers as Boeing issued guidance 4 months before the crash to deal with these issues with MCAS.

The FAA and ETAS should retrench in light of the above and work hard to cross certify and verify vital changes to flight control behavior.


You are behind the news cycle. The Ethiopian pilots followed the Boeing recommendation and found the plane to be uncontrollable. Boeing should have grounded the MAX after the Indonesian crash instead of sending out a bulletin that was inadequate and misleading.

Did Boeing even test their recommendation?

By following the B recommendation, their Max became irrecoverable sooner than Lion.
 
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speedbored
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Re: B737MAX Grounded Worldwide

Thu Apr 04, 2019 6:19 am

Waterbomber2 wrote:
I doubt it.
The reason I doubt it is that pilots on both flights lost both AoA and airspeed indication accuracy.
You can't catch two sensors with one bird...

You don't need to catch two sensors to get that result. Airspeed is not derived solely from pitot data - it is calculated from a combination of pitot and AoA data. If either sensor is damaged, the calculated airspeed will be inaccurate, and disagree with the other side.
 
Mboyle1988
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Re: B737MAX Grounded Worldwide

Thu Apr 04, 2019 6:34 am

I pray to god this plane never gets recertified.
 
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AirlineCritic
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Re: B737MAX Grounded Worldwide

Thu Apr 04, 2019 6:38 am

So, finally we know the cause of the accident: those damn, badly trained third world birds colliding with our beautifully designed plane!

Sigh.

I'm frustrated at this thread, the evasive response from the manufacturer, and much of the news and aviation community. But I do still trust the Seattle Times, WSJ/WP, Leehamn and the majority opinion of world's aviation administrators.

It has always been very likely that this accident and so many others are due to a combination of factors, from the machine to process and to the humans. The constant blame placement on this thread is tiring, and frankly, at times disingenuous and unethical. But based on most recent reports, it really does seem like the situation is far more complex than simply hitting some switches. How many seconds do you have to do it? How can you recognise it from other trimming events? What other alarms and issues are going in the cockpit at that time? And can you physically exert the necessary power to make a change? In time at a low altitude? What parts of the 737MAX flight envelope can the plane actually be handled if the automation breaks down, as any automation system is likely to do. How clear was the new procedure released after the Lion Air accident? To my eyes, it did not stress the use of electric trim enough. And how well has that procedure been flight tested? In short, we cannot escape the conclusions that the machine will have to bear part of the blame as well.

I think it would benefit Boeing and the aviation industry to take a big step back and make sure the next iteration is done properly and perfectly. The consequences from a third accident would be too horrible to think. I think at least the following needs to happen:

1. Redesign the system to significantly reduce the likelihood of failed automation. I'd rather see 3 sensors than 2, as well as three separate devices that do the analysis and vote about the result. Right now the fix is just 2 instead of the original one. I'd say they are risking it.

2. Clear indications to the crew about when the MCAS automation is active and when it has failed.

3. New flight testing and analysis of the factors that lead to the original aggressive MCAS parameters: what are we trying to protect against from, and are there any safety issues that will present themselves if MCAS is toned down? Publicise the results.

4. New flight testing and analysis of how quickly and with what effort one can adjust the trim system back to its proper state, if MCAS has taken it off too far in some direction. Analysis should be done for both the electric trim and manual trim. Are there corners of the flight envelope where trimming is not possible? Again, publicise results.

5. Based on the above, make a decision to tone down MCAS aggressiveness, and report what the consequences of that are, either for the things that MCAS was trying to do originally or for the ability of pilots to recover after a failure. Publicise the results.

6. Redesign the procedure for the pilots to recognise MCAS failures.

7. Redesign the procedure to deal with the MCAS failures.

8. Build a simulator that can simulate MCAS failures.

9. Test the new procedures with real-life crews (including with surprise of what's ahead) to see how well and in what conditions the pilots can execute the new procedures.

10. Evaluate results. Publicise them.

11. Make a decision to certify the plane for flying again. Institute new training on ipad, course and simulators. And, possibly, limit parts of the flight envelope and conditions the 737MAX can fly in.

12. Back into use.

13. Institute a monitoring system to collect information about MCAS and trimming failures, feed back to regulators and Boeing, and adjust as needed.

FWIW, while Boeing is publicly addressing some of this and probably internally looking at some others, I don't feel they are currently going full steam on the above list. Rather, they seem to have to be dragged to do anything here. This is wrong.
 
WIederling
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Re: B737MAX Grounded Worldwide

Thu Apr 04, 2019 6:41 am

RickNRoll wrote:
Did Boeing even test their recommendation?


They may have found it difficult to co opt some third world pilots for testing?
Murphy is an optimist
 
Interested
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Re: B737MAX Grounded Worldwide

Thu Apr 04, 2019 7:07 am

AirlineCritic wrote:
So, finally we know the cause of the accident: those damn, badly trained third world birds colliding with our beautifully designed plane!

Sigh.

I'm frustrated at this thread, the evasive response from the manufacturer, and much of the news and aviation community. But I do still trust the Seattle Times, WSJ/WP, Leehamn and the majority opinion of world's aviation administrators.

It has always been very likely that this accident and so many others are due to a combination of factors, from the machine to process and to the humans. The constant blame placement on this thread is tiring, and frankly, at times disingenuous and unethical. But based on most recent reports, it really does seem like the situation is far more complex than simply hitting some switches. How many seconds do you have to do it? How can you recognise it from other trimming events? What other alarms and issues are going in the cockpit at that time? And can you physically exert the necessary power to make a change? In time at a low altitude? What parts of the 737MAX flight envelope can the plane actually be handled if the automation breaks down, as any automation system is likely to do. How clear was the new procedure released after the Lion Air accident? To my eyes, it did not stress the use of electric trim enough. And how well has that procedure been flight tested? In short, we cannot escape the conclusions that the machine will have to bear part of the blame as well.

I think it would benefit Boeing and the aviation industry to take a big step back and make sure the next iteration is done properly and perfectly. The consequences from a third accident would be too horrible to think. I think at least the following needs to happen:

1. Redesign the system to significantly reduce the likelihood of failed automation. I'd rather see 3 sensors than 2, as well as three separate devices that do the analysis and vote about the result. Right now the fix is just 2 instead of the original one. I'd say they are risking it.

2. Clear indications to the crew about when the MCAS automation is active and when it has failed.

3. New flight testing and analysis of the factors that lead to the original aggressive MCAS parameters: what are we trying to protect against from, and are there any safety issues that will present themselves if MCAS is toned down? Publicise the results.

4. New flight testing and analysis of how quickly and with what effort one can adjust the trim system back to its proper state, if MCAS has taken it off too far in some direction. Analysis should be done for both the electric trim and manual trim. Are there corners of the flight envelope where trimming is not possible? Again, publicise results.

5. Based on the above, make a decision to tone down MCAS aggressiveness, and report what the consequences of that are, either for the things that MCAS was trying to do originally or for the ability of pilots to recover after a failure. Publicise the results.

6. Redesign the procedure for the pilots to recognise MCAS failures.

7. Redesign the procedure to deal with the MCAS failures.

8. Build a simulator that can simulate MCAS failures.

9. Test the new procedures with real-life crews (including with surprise of what's ahead) to see how well and in what conditions the pilots can execute the new procedures.

10. Evaluate results. Publicise them.

11. Make a decision to certify the plane for flying again. Institute new training on ipad, course and simulators. And, possibly, limit parts of the flight envelope and conditions the 737MAX can fly in.

12. Back into use.

13. Institute a monitoring system to collect information about MCAS and trimming failures, feed back to regulators and Boeing, and adjust as needed.

FWIW, while Boeing is publicly addressing some of this and probably internally looking at some others, I don't feel they are currently going full steam on the above list. Rather, they seem to have to be dragged to do anything here. This is wrong.


Yours is a great post

My simple question is:

Why not just design or build a plane that doesn't need MCAS at all?

Don't you just remove all of the above issues?

Haven't Boeing just created a whole bunch of problems to solve due to the design being poor from the start?

Do we just have to now accept a bodged plane design and have to mitigate it's failings with all the above elastoplast and training ?

To try and just reduce the risk of things going wrong again.

It makes no sense to me why we've even created all these problems to solve?

Why haven't they designed a plane that's safer to fly in its own right and doesn't need all the corrective measures and ongoing training above just to try and make it safe enough to be certified

Even with all the elastoplast above we will still at best have a plane that is less safe than the one it replaces. Because all those things above (which we wouldn't need on a better designed plane) can still have a small chance of going wrong?

How the hell have we come to this problem in the first place?

It's so frustrating, incompetent and most probably negligent

Not only that it's going to cost them an absolute fortune to put right one way or another.

It's a business disaster let alone plane disaster
Last edited by Interested on Thu Apr 04, 2019 7:20 am, edited 2 times in total.
 
philiplewis
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Re: B737MAX Grounded Worldwide

Thu Apr 04, 2019 7:12 am

Hello!

Is there some update from the Boeing about the crash? Did they update their software?
 
jollo
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Re: B737MAX Grounded Worldwide

Thu Apr 04, 2019 8:52 am

Polot wrote:
The whole point of the simulation is to show what the system/aircraft would do now if it was getting inconsistent and bad data, and what the pilots can do.

If you are suggesting Kjos try and see what if it is like if the system is getting consistent and agreeable data that is 100% incorrect for the situation, then that is down to the skill of the pilots to recognize that the plane is acting incorrectly and do something about it. Whether that is a 737Max or something with more advanced systems like the A320 (which will happily crash the plane for you as long as it thinks it’s data is correct).


Apologies, your reply beat my edit: you are correct and my original post (pre-edit) was wrong. Sticking both sensors would defeat the purpose of the "test" and would probably fool most correct triple-redundant controller designs.

No, the purpose of the test (minus the "I'd bet my children's life on it" theatrics, which are IMO uncalled for) would be to prove that an "average" random pilot, after a standard training syllabus, can successfully manage a single-sensor failure scenario by:
  • diagnosing the issue correctly, based on clearly prioritized information
  • applying a clearly defined sequence of troubleshooting steps, without the need to improvise by trial and error and interpret ambiguously worded footnotes
  • with enough time on his hands to do the above, without some vicious runaway control that needs to be countered with a specific sequence of actions within seconds to avoid an unrecoverable upset
 
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PW100
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Re: B737MAX Grounded Worldwide

Thu Apr 04, 2019 9:38 am

bob75013 wrote:
smartplane wrote:
bob75013 wrote:
. . .
Kjos, a former fighter pilot, said in a series of tweets he had tested the old system versus the new one in a MAX simulator.
Kjos said he had tested the old and the new MCAS software "under a malfunction", saying the new system seemed foolproof.
"I hope the regulators will have safety in focus as always and not be directed by politics. I will gladly take my family on board a Norwegian MAX," he added..."
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/boeings- ... 09730.html
Perhaps he should talk to MentourPilot before taking his family anywhere on a MAX.
Hopefully he will follow-up on the statement, and do just that as soon as the MAX is cleared to fly.

Perhaps as a Boeing global PR exercise, all operators will be persuaded to fly their Directors on a MAX when ready to return to the air. And senior FAA personnel, Boeing Board and family members, and all those involved in 'fixing' MCAS too. That would be a massive vote of support, and re-assurance to crews and passengers.

He's flown the simulator with both the old and new MCAS software.
Have you?


But the million dollar question is, did he fly the simulator with the all the other issues at the same time as well??

The biggest fail in all these same posts is that MCAS and its issues are considered as a stand alone issue. However, the crashed crews faced multiple issues and in that sort of environment, MCAS troubleshooting may not be straight forward.

And now we have indications that the unreliable airspeed checklist, may put a crew in a situation where cutting off stab trim may make the plane very hard, if impossible to operate in pitch control.

I wonder if Mr Kjos faced the same conditions in his sim ride, courtesy by Mr Boeing . . .
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PW100
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Re: B737MAX Grounded Worldwide

Thu Apr 04, 2019 9:45 am

Polot wrote:
Amiga500 wrote:
Probably fast action by Boeing putting pressure on the pilot's employer.

Hard to say. If the pilot never asked permission to make the video (involving company property? Idk never saw video) most employers would shut that down quickly. They are not going to want to get involved in the investigation or speculation. Making fun videos talking about your job/basic general pilot things is one thing, having the appearance your company possibly endorses speculation about a crash is another.


While it seems understandable that his employer may not want to get involved in the investigation, all his other videos explaining 737, MCAS, conversion training are still up and available. These videos put Boeing in a fairly good light, while the removed video was not. It is not difficult to see how his employer got a persuasive message from Boeing legal on the last video . . .
Immigration officer: "What's the purpose of your visit to the USA?" Spotter: "Shooting airliners with my Canon!"
 
lowbank
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Re: B737MAX Grounded Worldwide

Thu Apr 04, 2019 10:03 am

[threeid][/threeid]
philiplewis wrote:
Hello!

Is there some update from the Boeing about the crash? Did they update their software?


Not sure a software update is going to get this plane up in the air anytime soon , based on the EA prelim report.
Every days a school day.
 
B777LRF
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Re: B737MAX Grounded Worldwide

Thu Apr 04, 2019 10:27 am

It's becoming evident to all, perhaps except certain lofty offices in Chicago, that the 737 Max will not be reauthorised to fly based on a software update. Well, the FAA might sign it off and that'll make WN happy, but the rest of the world is unlikely to do anything but a top-to-bottom review of the whole aircraft, and insist it does not represent a degradation in flight safety vis a newly developed aircraft or, indeed, the aircraft it is meant to replace.

Thus the necessary changes may range from anywhere between discarding MCAS and developing a suitable alternative, over the introduction of full FBW flight controls and/or a revised horisontal stabiliser and/or other structural changes, to the outright discontinuation of the model in favour of a NSA.

This may also spell a serious revision of grandfathering rights, and for Boeing this could prove really tricky with the 777X program. I do not expect the FAA to take the same lenient approach but, what's much more important since the X doesn't have any US customers, the NAAs of the rest of the world will be employing all their finest combs going over the paperwork, and insist their own staff are involved much more deeply than at present.

In short, the 777X will properly have EIS delayed by well over a year satisfying regulatory agencies Boeing hasn't, yet again, stuffed it up or swept something under the carpet.
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mjoelnir
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Re: B737MAX Grounded Worldwide

Thu Apr 04, 2019 10:43 am

I think it is becoming evident that the 737 trim system has to be reviewed completely.

The argument that it has worked fine in its unchanged form is not compelling. A failure in a system can be hidden for many years until the holes align.

The system is not unchanged from the original 737 jurassic, somewhere here on this thread is the information, that the hand wheels moving the trim were reduced in size. That means if the same gearing is used, more power is needed to move the wheels aka the authority of that manual trim was reduced. Was that at its time reviewed or "smuggled" through the FAA certification process.
Many years it may never have come to the point where it matters how much power you need to turn the manual trim wheels, this time it mattered.
 
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Revelation
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Re: B737MAX Grounded Worldwide

Thu Apr 04, 2019 10:48 am

B777LRF wrote:
It's becoming evident to all, perhaps except certain lofty offices in Chicago, that the 737 Max will not be reauthorised to fly based on a software update. Well, the FAA might sign it off and that'll make WN happy, but the rest of the world is unlikely to do anything but a top-to-bottom review of the whole aircraft, and insist it does not represent a degradation in flight safety vis a newly developed aircraft or, indeed, the aircraft it is meant to replace.

I'm not sure why we have decided in the end the resolution will be something other than a software update.

A top to bottom review doesn't preclude the resolution being a software update, after Boeing answers all the questions the various regulators are going to ask.
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B777LRF
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Thu Apr 04, 2019 11:08 am

Revelation wrote:
I'm not sure why we have decided in the end the resolution will be something other than a software update.

A top to bottom review doesn't preclude the resolution being a software update, after Boeing answers all the questions the various review regulators are going to ask.


"We" haven't, and won't, decide on anything. This is a bulletin board populated in large parts by spotty youth with an affection for commercial aviation. If you wish to know what the real "we" decision is, there's a much better bulletin board available not very far from here. And whilst the consensus there may be closer to what will eventually happen, regulators and manufacturers have a long tradition of listning mainly to themselves rather than the grunts at the sharp end.

I will offer the proposition, however, that the NAAs of the world are very unlikely to accept a software update as the answer. It could well be seen as a bandaid put on top of another bandaid.
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stratosphere
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Re: B737MAX Grounded Worldwide

Thu Apr 04, 2019 11:11 am

capshandler wrote:
freakyrat wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:

I doubt it.
The reason I doubt it is that pilots on both flights lost both AoA and airspeed indication accuracy.
You can't catch two sensors with one bird...

Same story with Lion Air.
The AoA sensor was replaced and tested, and the next flight same story, well, almost...

Issues in the ADIRU or wiring more likely.


Sensors could have gotten blocked by bugs etc. It has happened before.

As far as issues with the ADIRU or wiring, this is a possibilitythat I wonder is getting overlooked. One of the US carriers operating the MAX had to replace an AOA sensor on one of their MAX aircraft and also replaced the ADIRU just to be on the safe side.


An AoA sensor can’t be blocked by bugs as the pitot. It’s visible during the walkaround so if something external happened you’re able to see it.


The AOA sensor is not what bugs infest since it is a sealed sensor. It is the pitot tubes that are used to read airspeed and they can be blocked with bugs I have seen it numerous times in my career and a pilot on the walkaround would NOT be able to tell since they build up inside the tube and are not visible on the outside.
 
art
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Re: B737MAX Grounded Worldwide

Thu Apr 04, 2019 11:16 am

I wonder what has happened to MAX sales campaigns. Is there any airline which was considering ordering MAX rather than A320 which still considers ordering it?
 
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speedbored
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Re: B737MAX Grounded Worldwide

Thu Apr 04, 2019 11:19 am

Revelation wrote:
A top to bottom review doesn't preclude the resolution being a software update, after Boeing answers all the questions the various regulators are going to ask.

Have to admire your optimism but I personally can't see a standalone software fix being sufficient to satisfy most regulators, possibly not even the FAA. I can't see this fix being accepted without associated manual(s), checklist(s), and training changes.
 
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Polot
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Re: B737MAX Grounded Worldwide

Thu Apr 04, 2019 11:22 am

speedbored wrote:
Revelation wrote:
A top to bottom review doesn't preclude the resolution being a software update, after Boeing answers all the questions the various regulators are going to ask.

Have to admire your optimism but I personally can't see a standalone software fix being sufficient to satisfy most regulators, possibly not even the FAA. I can't see this fix being accepted without associated manual(s), checklist(s), and training changes.

I think people are generally talking about what change will have to be made to the aircraft themselves to make them flight worthy again. Manual/training/checklist changes are a given.
 
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Revelation
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Re: B737MAX Grounded Worldwide

Thu Apr 04, 2019 11:24 am

Revelation wrote:
B777LRF wrote:
It's becoming evident to all, perhaps except certain lofty offices in Chicago, that the 737 Max will not be reauthorised to fly based on a software update. Well, the FAA might sign it off and that'll make WN happy, but the rest of the world is unlikely to do anything but a top-to-bottom review of the whole aircraft, and insist it does not represent a degradation in flight safety vis a newly developed aircraft or, indeed, the aircraft it is meant to replace.

I'm not sure why we have decided in the end the resolution will be something other than a software update.

A top to bottom review doesn't preclude the resolution being a software update, after Boeing answers all the questions the various regulators are going to ask.

'Spotty youth' go away when you click on their name and use the 'add foe' button. It makes this forum a lot more readable.

The other forum has a higher signal to noise ratio, but definitely has its biases, baked right in to it from the start.

I hope the fix will be that which fixes the problem as opposed to that plus a herd of sacrificial lambs, but I suspect some if not many sacrifices will need to be made on the altar of outrage.
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Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
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speedbored
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Re: B737MAX Grounded Worldwide

Thu Apr 04, 2019 11:31 am

Polot wrote:
Manual/training/checklist changes are a given.

I doubt that Boeing are seeing them as "a given". Boeing will be robustly resisting any such changes as it likely negates a major one of their MAX selling points - minimal differences training with zero sim time.
 
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Aesma
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Re: B737MAX Grounded Worldwide

Thu Apr 04, 2019 11:34 am

MCAS means Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System.

Are we certain its only purpose it to trim down the aircraft in situations it deems dangerous ?

I seem to recall that Airbus FBW aircraft are similar to fly from the pilots' POV, because Airbus makes the controls that way. However the 737 isn't FBW so Boeing can't make the MAX feel like the NG the same way ; when I see what MCAS stands for, I'm left wondering if it's not constantly doing something so that the MAX feels as close to the NG as possible.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
morrisond
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Re: B737MAX Grounded Worldwide

Thu Apr 04, 2019 11:35 am

RickNRoll wrote:
casinterest wrote:
smartplane wrote:
What else has the Boeing MCAS and self-certifying teams and related management touched on the MAX, plus existing and to be released models? Lots of red flags for the FAA to investigate, except they are part of the problem.

Boeing didn't lie. They omitted details about a subsystem behavioral change that they though would save lies. Without a review process from external safety experts , they allowed a change to be made that cost many lives. Lives that cannot be reclaimed. The bargain of the change was that the pilots would remember their memory items to stop a runaway stabilizer. This was not checked with the pilots, and what the pilots didn't know cost many lives , and there can be no amount of bargaining to make up for those lost lives.

However stating the above. Boeing is making good on making a change to fix the MCAS, and a hearty review should be made by the FAA, and other certifying agencies including the airlines. The airplane manufacturing association is not like many other industries in the US. There are few manufacturers, and few certifying agencies. EASA should be involved. Their skipping of the initial rollout of a potential fix is bullshit. They should have been front and center even if not invited as a vested interest in Aviation safety. Their input should be valuable within and without, and that is the issue currently . Airbus and Boeing incestuously breed their own vesting parties. We need all parties present to represent the airlines, the consumers, and the airline industry to present a safe product.

When the final reports come out, Boeing will own a lot of the blame for the undocumented changes to MCAS, but the Pilots and Airlines will own a lot of issues due to CRM and training. If the Ethiopian crash is as similar to the Lion Air crash as we are all led to believe, then a lot of questions need to be asked of their Chief Pilots and Trainers as Boeing issued guidance 4 months before the crash to deal with these issues with MCAS.

The FAA and ETAS should retrench in light of the above and work hard to cross certify and verify vital changes to flight control behavior.


You are behind the news cycle. The Ethiopian pilots followed the Boeing recommendation and found the plane to be uncontrollable. Boeing should have grounded the MAX after the Indonesian crash instead of sending out a bulletin that was inadequate and misleading.

Did Boeing even test their recommendation?



There are conflicting reports on whether or not they followed "All Procedures" (granted that procedure was not written well). Apparently they did not use Electric Trim to offset MCAS before turning off the system. I would have to guess they did not use it the 4 times they turned it back on either.

I doubt you will find in any procedure either to allow the plane to accelerate beyond it's normal Airspeed limit of 230 knots either.

Scroll down in this ABC story

https://abcnews.go.com/International/da ... dlines_hed
 
Boof02671
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Re: B737MAX Grounded Worldwide

Thu Apr 04, 2019 11:38 am

Boeing’s CEO flew on a software testing flight yesterday.
 
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Aesma
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Re: B737MAX Grounded Worldwide

Thu Apr 04, 2019 11:41 am

speedbored wrote:
Polot wrote:
Manual/training/checklist changes are a given.

I doubt that Boeing are seeing them as "a given". Boeing will be robustly resisting any such changes as it likely negates a major one of their MAX selling points - minimal differences training with zero sim time.


That boat has sailed, in my opinion.

Some airlines are questioning their purchase of the MAX, most will probably keep it, but ensure pilots are significantly trained for it specifically. Imagine if another accident happens, nothing to do with the current issue, just a "typical" CFIT. If the public discovers that the airline has no MAX simulator, that their pilots have still only gotten 1 hour training on an iPad, forget about it, the airline will be crucified in the eyes of the public. And the MAX would suffer too.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
morrisond
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Re: B737MAX Grounded Worldwide

Thu Apr 04, 2019 11:44 am

Aesma wrote:
MCAS means Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System.

Are we certain its only purpose it to trim down the aircraft in situations it deems dangerous ?

I seem to recall that Airbus FBW aircraft are similar to fly from the pilots' POV, because Airbus makes the controls that way. However the 737 isn't FBW so Boeing can't make the MAX feel like the NG the same way ; when I see what MCAS stands for, I'm left wondering if it's not constantly doing something so that the MAX feels as close to the NG as possible.



Here is the best explanation of MCAS - you are right - it's not really a stall prevention system - its a feel system that was really botched and given way too much authority. It also makes the MAX feel like the NG. The MAX would have flown fine without it - it would have been easier to pull up into a stall but there is so much warning that is about to happen it's hard to believe that an actual stall would have happened in commercial service.

http://www.b737.org.uk/mcas.htm
MCAS is a longitudinal stability enhancement. It is not for stall prevention (although indirectly it helps) or to make the MAX handle like the NG (although it does); it was introduced to counteract the non-linear lift generated by the LEAP-1B engine nacelles at high AoA and give a steady increase in stick force as the stall is approached as required by regulation.
 
Amiga500
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Re: B737MAX Grounded Worldwide

Thu Apr 04, 2019 11:56 am

Revelation wrote:
I'm not sure why we have decided in the end the resolution will be something other than a software update.

A top to bottom review doesn't preclude the resolution being a software update, after Boeing answers all the questions the various regulators are going to ask.


Well, one big issue (we know about) right now is the inability to retrim the stabilizer when presented with any kind of adverse loading.

The ability to do that will have formed part of Boeing's redundancy for that sub-system (in terms of actuator MTBF, redundancy of signals/powers etc).


*If* the regulators deem the manual trim wheel ineffective[1] - then Boeing's high level assumptions for the H-stab/elevator system failure scenarios go out the window. Which means a significant, if not complete, sub-system redesign. They *may* be able to get around much of the problem by replacing the manual wheel with an electrical motor - but that needs a whole sub-system to support it.


[1]and to be honest, if the trim wheel cannot adjust the H-stab without first requiring a temporary loss of pitch control, then I find it very hard to see how they can draw anything but this conclusion.
 
rheinwaldner
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Re: B737MAX Grounded Worldwide

Thu Apr 04, 2019 11:57 am

jollo wrote:
Then the Stabilizer Runaway NNC could be broken out in distinct steps:
...
If the runaway continues after the autopilot is disengaged:
STAB TRIM CUTOUT - AUTO switch ........... CUTOUT
If the runaway continues:
Stabilizer....................................................... Neutral (using electric trim switches)
STAB TRIM CUTOUT - MANUAL switch ...... CUTOUT
...

Would this sequence make sense? Wording and naming would have to be revised, of course...

IMO the differences between a normal stab runaway (both regarding symptoms as well as handling) are big enough to warrant not a "merged" NNC but simply a new one.
Many things are difficult, all things are possible!
 
mjoelnir
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Re: B737MAX Grounded Worldwide

Thu Apr 04, 2019 12:01 pm

IMO the Ethiopian crash with MCAS pushing the frame into a dive, showed up the underlying fragility of the 737 trimming system. Manual trimming just did not have enough authority to save the plane. Yes, the 737NG has an exemplary safety record, but it could be many years of luck that the wholes never aligned. The frame never been pushed into the areas of the flight envelop where the deficiencies of the manual trim system mattered.

I would assume a review of the complete trim system, should be part of recertifying the 737MAX.
 
StuckinCMHland
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Re: B737MAX Grounded Worldwide

Thu Apr 04, 2019 12:05 pm

Interested wrote:
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-ethiopia-airplane-faa-regulation/faa-launches-new-review-of-boeing-737-max-to-ensure-safety-idUKKCN1RF2W4?il=0

Independent review has been set up with an International team to look at safety of 737 Max and approve any changes etc

I guess the only concern is that it's the FAA who have set up this new review committee.

I would prefer if this had been imposed upon them rather than they set it up themselves


Just curious,

Who should have 'imposed' this review committee, you? The UN? The IOC? The Duchy of Grand Fenwick? The Justice League? What body of superhumans can know everything, make decisions on everything, and be perfectly guaranteed not to be biased?

Last time I checked we are all human beings on this planet, and even professionals make mistakes, sometimes costly ones. Even governments make mistakes, and the US is one of the few governments that would even consider setting up such an international group to work on this issue in an unbiased manner. Has this thread deteriorated so much at this point that all people want to do is take potshots at their least favored group? Maybe some of us ought to wait and get more information on what is happening before shooting the messenger.
 
RickNRoll
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Re: B737MAX Grounded Worldwide

Thu Apr 04, 2019 12:10 pm

StuckinCMHland wrote:
Interested wrote:
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-ethiopia-airplane-faa-regulation/faa-launches-new-review-of-boeing-737-max-to-ensure-safety-idUKKCN1RF2W4?il=0

Independent review has been set up with an International team to look at safety of 737 Max and approve any changes etc

I guess the only concern is that it's the FAA who have set up this new review committee.

I would prefer if this had been imposed upon them rather than they set it up themselves


Just curious,

Who should have 'imposed' this review committee, you? The UN? The IOC? The Duchy of Grand Fenwick? The Justice League? What body of superhumans can know everything, make decisions on everything, and be perfectly guaranteed not to be biased?

Last time I checked we are all human beings on this planet, and even professionals make mistakes, sometimes costly ones. Even governments make mistakes, and the US is one of the few governments that would even consider setting up such an international group to work on this issue in an unbiased manner. Has this thread deteriorated so much at this point that all people want to do is take potshots at their least favored group? Maybe some of us ought to wait and get more information on what is happening before shooting the messenger.
That is why people have developed formal quality systems over many years. So that individual failings will be managed.
 
mwmav8r01
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Re: B737MAX Grounded Worldwide

Thu Apr 04, 2019 12:28 pm

mjoelnir wrote:
IMO the Ethiopian crash with MCAS pushing the frame into a dive, showed up the underlying fragility of the 737 trimming system. Manual trimming just did not have enough authority to save the plane. Yes, the 737NG has an exemplary safety record, but it could be many years of luck that the wholes never aligned. The frame never been pushed into the areas of the flight envelop where the deficiencies of the manual trim system mattered.

I would assume a review of the complete trim system, should be part of recertifying the 737MAX.


Manual trim is the same as auto. It just takes a lot of cranking.
I love that 737 still has the ability to manually trim. Previous transport category planes ive flown did not have this. Do Airbus?
 
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N14AZ
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Re: B737MAX Grounded Worldwide

Thu Apr 04, 2019 12:43 pm

art wrote:
I wonder what has happened to MAX sales campaigns. Is there any airline which was considering ordering MAX rather than A320 which still considers ordering it?

A certain local air taxi company called Lufthansa. We had a thread about it two weeks ago. LH‘s CEO stated that he is confident in Boeing and considering the MAX as an alternative to additional NEO‘s.
 
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Revelation
Posts: 24585
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Re: B737MAX Grounded Worldwide

Thu Apr 04, 2019 12:48 pm

Amiga500 wrote:
Revelation wrote:
I'm not sure why we have decided in the end the resolution will be something other than a software update.

A top to bottom review doesn't preclude the resolution being a software update, after Boeing answers all the questions the various regulators are going to ask.

Well, one big issue (we know about) right now is the inability to retrim the stabilizer when presented with any kind of adverse loading.

The ability to do that will have formed part of Boeing's redundancy for that sub-system (in terms of actuator MTBF, redundancy of signals/powers etc).

*If* the regulators deem the manual trim wheel ineffective[1] - then Boeing's high level assumptions for the H-stab/elevator system failure scenarios go out the window. Which means a significant, if not complete, sub-system redesign. They *may* be able to get around much of the problem by replacing the manual wheel with an electrical motor - but that needs a whole sub-system to support it.

[1]and to be honest, if the trim wheel cannot adjust the H-stab without first requiring a temporary loss of pitch control, then I find it very hard to see how they can draw anything but this conclusion.

mjoelnir wrote:
IMO the Ethiopian crash with MCAS pushing the frame into a dive, showed up the underlying fragility of the 737 trimming system. Manual trimming just did not have enough authority to save the plane. Yes, the 737NG has an exemplary safety record, but it could be many years of luck that the wholes never aligned. The frame never been pushed into the areas of the flight envelop where the deficiencies of the manual trim system mattered.

I would assume a review of the complete trim system, should be part of recertifying the 737MAX.

Thanks, these are very straight forward answers, and I appreciate them.

speedbored wrote:
Have to admire your optimism but I personally can't see a standalone software fix being sufficient to satisfy most regulators, possibly not even the FAA. I can't see this fix being accepted without associated manual(s), checklist(s), and training changes.

As Polot suggested, I presumed update of manuals, checklists, and training was a given.

speedbored wrote:
I doubt that Boeing are seeing them as "a given". Boeing will be robustly resisting any such changes as it likely negates a major one of their MAX selling points - minimal differences training with zero sim time.

Both tragic and ironic at the same time, sigh.

Given how the situation has evolved as more data has become available, I have a hard time seeing minimal differences training with zero sim time passing muster.

If I was a MAX pilot, I'm pretty sure I'd be asking for a sim session, either through company or union channels or both.

I'm not sure what else would be good enough to restore my own confidence and that of the public.

If they can drag pilots back to HQ for routine currency checks, they can make it happen for this case too, no?
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
planecane
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Re: B737MAX Grounded Worldwide

Thu Apr 04, 2019 12:52 pm

Mboyle1988 wrote:
I pray to god this plane never gets recertified.


Pray for something else like world Peace because that is a lot more likely than the 737MAX not being recertified.
 
cledaybuck
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Re: B737MAX Grounded Worldwide

Thu Apr 04, 2019 1:02 pm

mjoelnir wrote:
IMO the Ethiopian crash with MCAS pushing the frame into a dive, showed up the underlying fragility of the 737 trimming system. Manual trimming just did not have enough authority to save the plane. Yes, the 737NG has an exemplary safety record, but it could be many years of luck that the wholes never aligned. The frame never been pushed into the areas of the flight envelop where the deficiencies of the manual trim system mattered.

I would assume a review of the complete trim system, should be part of recertifying the 737MAX.

So the holes never lined up for over 20 years on the NG but did line up twice in less than 2 years on the MAX? I find that very unlikely. Much more likely is that changes to the MAX are responsible.
As we celebrate mediocrity, all the boys upstairs want to see, how much you'll pay for what you used to get for free.
 
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speedbored
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Re: B737MAX Grounded Worldwide

Thu Apr 04, 2019 1:03 pm

Revelation wrote:
Given how the situation has evolved as more data has become available, I have a hard time seeing minimal differences training with zero sim time passing muster.

Nor do I. But that doesn't mean that Boeing aren't going to try. They have $280m riding on it at Southwest.
 
cledaybuck
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Re: B737MAX Grounded Worldwide

Thu Apr 04, 2019 1:06 pm

speedbored wrote:
Polot wrote:
Manual/training/checklist changes are a given.

I doubt that Boeing are seeing them as "a given". Boeing will be robustly resisting any such changes as it likely negates a major one of their MAX selling points - minimal differences training with zero sim time.

Isn't that selling point pretty much out the window at this point? Boeing need to make the plane as safe as possible at this point, which almost has to include more training. If they don't do that, selling points are going to be irrelevant because they won't be selling anything.
As we celebrate mediocrity, all the boys upstairs want to see, how much you'll pay for what you used to get for free.
 
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FabDiva
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Re: B737MAX Grounded Worldwide

Thu Apr 04, 2019 1:07 pm

N14AZ wrote:
art wrote:
I wonder what has happened to MAX sales campaigns. Is there any airline which was considering ordering MAX rather than A320 which still considers ordering it?

A certain local air taxi company called Lufthansa. We had a thread about it two weeks ago. LH‘s CEO stated that he is confident in Boeing and considering the MAX as an alternative to additional NEO‘s.


Though that could just be trying to get a better price out of Airbus. Southwest's CEO used to order some Airbus merch and renders of A320s in SW livery to have around when Boeing sales came to call.
 
mjoelnir
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Re: B737MAX Grounded Worldwide

Thu Apr 04, 2019 1:07 pm

Revelation wrote:

Given how the situation has evolved as more data has become available, I have a hard time seeing minimal differences training with zero sim time passing muster.

If I was a MAX pilot, I'm pretty sure I'd be asking for a sim session, either through company or union channels or both.

I'm not sure what else would be good enough to restore my own confidence and that of the public.

If they can drag pilots back to HQ for routine currency checks, they can make it happen for this case too, no?


It seems that an unnamed pilot of an USA airline, having asked for more training including simulator, because he was uncomfortable to fly the MAX with the minimal difference training provided, was heavily leaned upon by his airline and did not find a lot of help at his union either. That happened before the two accidents.
So if you would have been an pilot at this USA airline and asked for more training, you would have had a black mark against you, without being provided with extra training.
 
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SheikhDjibouti
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Re: B737MAX Grounded Worldwide

Thu Apr 04, 2019 1:11 pm

mwmav8r01 wrote:
Manual trim is the same as auto. It just takes a lot of cranking.
I love that 737 still has the ability to manually trim. Previous transport category planes ive flown did not have this. Do Airbus?

One of my earliest bosses felt exactly the same about having a manual method for winding down the undercarriage.
Bluddy hard work, but always useful to have as a back-up

Several times coming back from Cologne, he needed it to save him, his crew and his Lancaster.

(True story)
Nothing to see here; move along please.

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