In light of a second fatal crash involving the type. What would trigger actions from the regulators:

22 May 2017 - B737 MAX first commercial flight
29 Oct 2018 - B737-8 MAX (JT 610) crashed in Java sea off Indonesia shortly after takeoff
10 Mar 2019 - B737-8 MAX (JT 302) crashed in Ethiopia shortly after takeoff

Thought this could a better space to debate fleet grounding considerations instead of flooding the thread reporting the accident

Well IMHO what will happen starting Monday is the following:
Larger Multinational companies will issue travel warnings to all employees, requesting them to avoid flying on the Max with immediate effect.

That will then lead to an indirect grounding, as Max operating airlines will see extreme revenue loses. That in turn will lead to airlines self grounding the Max before Boeing and/or FAA take any action.

I work for a company that has a few 100 thousand employees globally. I can see the email coming asap.

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we went through a worldwide grounding of the 787, i would say something is coming soon for the MAX.

Wow

Major props to the airliners.net community for finding out the cause of the ET crash within 12hrs.
And then quickly implementing a worldwide grounding of 300+ aircraft.

You have saved a lot of lives today airplane fans.....bravo!

We don't know what caused either crash. A grounding is premature.

For those that point to the 787, the batteries overheated, and caught fire. People knew the cause of the issue.
These two planes have crashed due to much more complicated factors that need to be investigated. The only thing to do is wait for the investigations to release their findings and directives. There are now hundreds of flights a day that are successful on the 737 max, so we really need to wait to see if this is a horrible coincidence of two planes crashing, or if there is an airframe/software/pilot training issue that needs to be addressed.

Lion air would crash any aircraft type. And my money is on bomb for this one.

CriticalPoint wrote:

Wow

Major props to the airliners.net community for finding out the cause of the ET crash within 12hrs.
And then quickly implementing a worldwide grounding of 300+ aircraft.

You have saved a lot of lives today airplane fans.....bravo!

This right here is why I never click on these crash threads anymore. Have to get all of my information from external news sources.

Remember the rudder issues of UA585 and US427?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_737_rudder_issues

Given what we now know caused these accidents, should the 737 have been grounded after US427 happened?

CriticalPoint wrote:

Wow

Major props to the airliners.net community for finding out the cause of the ET crash within 12hrs.
And then quickly implementing a worldwide grounding of 300+ aircraft.

You have saved a lot of lives today airplane fans.....bravo!

So true. Excellent post.

No, these developing countries have crashed numerous 737NG and A320 aircraft. No one called for grounding those fleets.

TTailedTiger wrote:

No, these developing countries have crashed numerous 737NG and A320 aircraft. No one called for grounding those fleets.

But those were pilot errors and bad maintenance. The MAX keeps diving and pilots can't do anything about it.

Zaf wrote:

TTailedTiger wrote:

No, these developing countries have crashed numerous 737NG and A320 aircraft. No one called for grounding those fleets.

But those were pilot errors and bad maintenance. The MAX keeps diving and pilots can't do anything about it.

Says who? This hasn’t happened to American

Zaf wrote:

TTailedTiger wrote:

No, these developing countries have crashed numerous 737NG and A320 aircraft. No one called for grounding those fleets.

But those were pilot errors and bad maintenance. The MAX keeps diving and pilots can't do anything about it.

Keeps diving? You mean the one Lion Air jet or have you already figured out what happened to the Ethiopian crash?

There is no evidence to go on yet. It would take another one or two crashes with similar results in a short timelime to make a call like that.

BUTTTTTT if i were the airline operator i would put my order of new plane on HOLD pending the results of this investigation and the lion air investigation. Who wants to fly a plane that might be in some circumstances difficult for the pilots to fly or might be high maintenance risk.

I would think the outstanding pilots at UAL, AAL and WN along with their skilled technical folks would already have picked up on even the slightest concern and requested that it be addressed or brought to someone's attention. I would also believe the folks at the FAA need the opportunity to review any of the hard data as well.

I say let the investigation play out. Let the real experts handle the decisions. Any sudden reaction from a multi-national company travel policy is no less short-sighted than any of the recent knee jerk reactions to social justice causes that were based on emotion and not fact. Thank goodness millennials don't run everything.

There is no evidence to go on yet. It would take another one or two crashes with similar results in a short timelime to make a call like that.

BUTTTTTT if i were the airline operator i would put my order of new planes on HOLD pending the results of this investigation and the lion air investigation. Who wants to fly a plane that might be in some circumstances difficult for the pilots to fly or might be high maintenance risk.

The accidents are so eerily similar that I for sure won't wait for months and months for a report that MIGHT say that the accidents are unrelated to the design of the MAX. I'm not flying on the MAX until I have seen proof that they ARE unrelated.

14ccKemiskt wrote:

The accidents are so eerily similar that I for sure won't wait for months and months for a report that MIGHT say that the accidents are unrelated to the design of the MAX. I'm not flying on the MAX until I have seen proof that they ARE unrelated.

I agree ... I will be taking different types until the powers that be figure out what's going on with the MAX.

sldispatcher wrote:

I would think the outstanding pilots at UAL, AAL and WN along with their skilled technical folks would already have picked up on even the slightest concern and requested that it be addressed or brought to someone's attention. I would also believe the folks at the FAA need the opportunity to review any of the hard data as well.

I say let the investigation play out. Let the real experts handle the decisions. Any sudden reaction from a multi-national company travel policy is no less short-sighted than any of the recent knee jerk reactions to social justice causes that were based on emotion and not fact. Thank goodness millennials don't run everything.

Agreed. I certainly don't want a pilot with only 200 hours at the controls and that's what this FO had. These cadet programs are just on the job training. Someone defended him by saying "well those 200 hours were all on a jet". Uh, that's no comfort at all. If you put him in a Piper Cub he would have no idea what to do. You can bet they have very little idea of systems or the physics of how an aircraft flys. There are no shortcuts when it comes to being a safe and competent pilot. That's why a lot of smaller countries send people to the US to learn how to fly.

I think there needs to be a sense of balance: Waiting until the investigation is complete is too much of a risk. We don't need another 150 dead people. That said, if there is ANY evidence that the aircraft crashed as a result of pilot misunderstanding of the MCAS system, or if another design flaw is to blame, the fleet should be grounded immediately. The 787 was grounded for much less.

I don't believe the FAA will ground the 737max right now as there is so little information about what happened.
However, If one airline decides now to ground the 737max, many others will follow, just because you don't want your customers to feel you care less about their life compared to other airlines. The brand & trust of an airline is its most important asset.

Zaf wrote:

TTailedTiger wrote:

No, these developing countries have crashed numerous 737NG and A320 aircraft. No one called for grounding those fleets.

But those were pilot errors and bad maintenance. The MAX keeps diving and pilots can't do anything about it.

The pilots can complete their immediate action items and cut off the automatic trim......the pilots at United, American and Southwest can complete this procedure without crashing, you know why? Because of world class training, before I ground an entire type I would consider the two airlines at play and their experience and training culture.

If any of you knew even 10% of the Flight manual bulletins and training bulletins pilots in the US get We would need 100 more 1000 post threads. Did lion air pilots and Ethiopian pilots get the same training bulletins and flight manual bulletins?

casinterest wrote:

We don't know what caused either crash. A grounding is premature.

For those that point to the 787, the batteries overheated, and caught fire. People knew the cause of the issue.
These two planes have crashed due to much more complicated factors that need to be investigated. The only thing to do is wait for the investigations to release their findings and directives. There are now hundreds of flights a day that are successful on the 737 max, so we really need to wait to see if this is a horrible coincidence of two planes crashing, or if there is an airframe/software/pilot training issue that needs to be addressed.

People did only knew that the batteries overheated and caught fire. The grounding was because nobody knew why.

It is exactly the other way round. If the cause for two crashes of one type in a short time frame can not be deducted, or at least deducted that there must be two independent causes, a grounding is inevitable until the causes for both accidents are determined.
If you know exactly what happened, than there is usually a way past the problem, there comes an AD and grounding is only necessary if there is no way to escape the problem at least temporarily by changed procedures.

I point to one of the most famous row of accidents and the beginning of modern accident research. De Havilland Comet 1. Grounded exactly because there was no known cause for the accidents.

Let's wait and see what happens, but let's also not try to shut down discussion right away. Talking about the grounding of a type is off-topic to a discussion about a particular crash.

cpd wrote:

Let's wait and see what happens, but let's also not try to shut down discussion right away. Talking about the grounding of a type is off-topic to a discussion about a particular crash.

In this thread you should only expect arguments for or against grounding. The talk about the accident is another thread.

oschkosch wrote:

Well IMHO what will happen starting Monday is the following:
Larger Multinational companies will issue travel warnings to all employees, requesting them to avoid flying on the Max with immediate effect.

That will then lead to an indirect grounding, as Max operating airlines will see extreme revenue loses. That in turn will lead to airlines self grounding the Max before Boeing and/or FAA take any action.

I work for a company that has a few 100 thousand employees globally. I can see the email coming asap.

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I work for a large company like yourself with a similar amount of employees, but i can’t see any email coming around tomorrow.

I’m not getting on a MAX until there’s a clear fix in place, and I’ve flown some pretty risky aircraft in pretty risky situations. Maybe my risk tolerance has changed over the years, but if they aren’t grounded by the airlines or FAA, I’d avoid them anyway, at least for now until more is known. Just me though (and several of my pilot friends).

Arion640 wrote:

oschkosch wrote:

Well IMHO what will happen starting Monday is the following:
Larger Multinational companies will issue travel warnings to all employees, requesting them to avoid flying on the Max with immediate effect.

That will then lead to an indirect grounding, as Max operating airlines will see extreme revenue loses. That in turn will lead to airlines self grounding the Max before Boeing and/or FAA take any action.

I work for a company that has a few 100 thousand employees globally. I can see the email coming asap.

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I work for a large company like yourself with a similar amount of employees, but i can’t see any email coming around tomorrow.

in the crash thread someone of a FT500 company has confirmed receipt of such an email.... And so the grounding starts.

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We don't know exactly what is going on. If in a couple of weeks yet another similar incident ocours, then the people will rightfully ask how come the aircraft was not grounded till the reason for this problem is fully understood.

Not knowing is not a reason to stay still, quite the contrary.

I would not like to be in that position...

And no, if my car was having multiple deadly incidents without driver's obvious foult, I wound not be driving it.

32andBelow wrote:

Lion air would crash any aircraft type. And my money is on bomb for this one.

What? Based on what exactly? They didn't report a bomb, they reported control issues. They didn't plunge suddenly, they fought the plane (apparently) for a number of minutes. Tbh, this lines up way more with JT610 than any bombing I can think of.

But so noted...

CriticalPoint wrote:

Zaf wrote:

TTailedTiger wrote:

No, these developing countries have crashed numerous 737NG and A320 aircraft. No one called for grounding those fleets.

But those were pilot errors and bad maintenance. The MAX keeps diving and pilots can't do anything about it.

The pilots can complete their immediate action items and cut off the automatic trim......the pilots at United, American and Southwest can complete this procedure without crashing, you know why? Because of world class training, before I ground an entire type I would consider the two airlines at play and their experience and training culture.

If any of you knew even 10% of the Flight manual bulletins and training bulletins pilots in the US get We would need 100 more 1000 post threads. Did lion air pilots and Ethiopian pilots get the same training bulletins and flight manual bulletins?

I have done type ratings in three different countries. One of them was in the USA. And it was by far the sloppiest. Nothing world class about it. So get off your high horse.

I have an American MAX 8 flight next week, so I hope it doesn't get grounded.

CriticalPoint wrote:

Zaf wrote:

TTailedTiger wrote:

No, these developing countries have crashed numerous 737NG and A320 aircraft. No one called for grounding those fleets.

But those were pilot errors and bad maintenance. The MAX keeps diving and pilots can't do anything about it.

The pilots can complete their immediate action items and cut off the automatic trim......the pilots at United, American and Southwest can complete this procedure without crashing, you know why? Because of world class training, before I ground an entire type I would consider the two airlines at play and their experience and training culture.

If any of you knew even 10% of the Flight manual bulletins and training bulletins pilots in the US get We would need 100 more 1000 post threads. Did lion air pilots and Ethiopian pilots get the same training bulletins and flight manual bulletins?

How many times have UA/AA/WN pilots experienced this situation and handled it correctly?

CALMSP wrote:

we went through a worldwide grounding of the 787, i would say something is coming soon for the MAX.

Agreed, though what makes this different is that prior to the 787 grounding, there was no fatal accident. There have been two, eerily similar MAX 8 crashes less than 6 months apart. I imagine the Max is going to be grounded. I for one, would not travel on one. I flew from MIA to NYC on one in January and had read articles about the pilot training and the MCAS issue which provided no comfort.

My money is on cargo fire

I noticed that another af AB380 engine disintegrated today. Maybe we should ground the fleet until we know why

I doubt we need a grounding, but there are some concerning aspects of MCAS that warrant some official reassurance (if there is any to be had) or some operating restrictions. The way I see it, it's very unlikely that MCAS will cause an accident in the same manner as JT610 again now that's it's behaviour is understood - hope I don't get proved wrong as the facts of this last accident emerge.

However - MCAS is there for a reason (stability in pitch at cruise). And it's dependent on the AOA sensor and Pitot tubes with no seeming strategy for redundancy. So imagine a situation where you lose one of them in cruise. MCAS causes a sort-of runaway trim. Not to worry, the pilot will now pull the plug on it - jolly good. However you've now lost an important protection right at the point the pilot may need it most. We're in an AF447 situation, we've got unreliable airspeed or no AOA indication, and pull back on the yoke a little and because the aircraft is not stable in pitch - stall.

As an interested layman, this isn't a good situation - frankly I'm amazed it was certified. And I think it warranted more communication from Boeing, the FAA and the NTSB. I'm not saying that all Max's should be grounded, it may be that a reduction in operating altitude would address the issue. But all we got was that disturbing statement from Boeing attempting to immediately lay the blame on the customer - not the attitude to safety I imagine most of us would like to see.

sldispatcher wrote:

I would think the outstanding pilots at UAL, AAL and WN along with their skilled technical folks would already have picked up on even the slightest concern and requested that it be addressed or brought to someone's attention. I would also believe the folks at the FAA need the opportunity to review any of the hard data as well.

Exactly.

I know that at Air Canada, when the (likely) cause of the Lion Air accident became apparent, memos were issued to MAX8 pilots pointing them to proper drills for review. Also training was adjusted to include such a scenario during initial training and on recurrent training. I know of many Captains that include this scenario in their "emergency review" before the first flight of every pairing.

I don't doubt that UA, AA and WN are doing the same thing! And I also don't doubt that the FAA (and Transport Canada) has compiled the data and feel this is a sufficient solution.

oschkosch wrote:

Well IMHO what will happen starting Monday is the following:
Larger Multinational companies will issue travel warnings to all employees, requesting them to avoid flying on the Max with immediate effect.

That will then lead to an indirect grounding, as Max operating airlines will see extreme revenue loses. That in turn will lead to airlines self grounding the Max before Boeing and/or FAA take any action.

I work for a company that has a few 100 thousand employees globally. I can see the email coming asap.

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How do you know if your flight is on a Max? Are all 737-800 Max?

The problem is not the airplane it's pilot training. With so much being taken over by technology and relying on the technology to get you out of harms way the art of hand flying out of danger is becoming a lost art. By the time you process all the messages and warning the automated cockpit is given you the event is over and you've hit the ground.

maps4ltd wrote:

I have an American MAX 8 flight next week, so I hope it doesn't get grounded.

How do you know you are on a max and not just a regular 737-8? I'm on an AA 737-800 flight next Monday, but cannot tell if it is a max or not...

No, the aircraft should not be grounded at this point...We still don't know what happened to the Ethiopian Max -- nor do we have the final report on the Lion Air crash in Indonesia. However, if it is determined that both incidents are related, then yes, perhaps a grounding may be necessary. But for now, we don't have enough information.

That being said...it is disconcerting that two Max's have already gone down killing hundreds, when the aircraft has been in service for less than two years. Many, including myself, have suggested in these A.Net forums that the 737 platform has been stretched and modified with ever larger weights, bigger engines and new systems...without installation of a modern FBW flight control system...

...MCAS and other software patches are symptoms of the greater Boeing strategy of endless additions to this 50 year old legacy platform. The 737 has been a safe aircraft through the NG era...Let's hope it stays that way. Don't ground it yet...but the jury is still out for now.

BaconButty wrote:

I doubt we need a grounding, but there are some concerning aspects of MCAS that warrant some official reassurance (if there is any to be had) or some operating decisions. The way I see it, it's very unlikely that MCAS will cause an accident in the same manner as JT610 again now that's it's behaviour is understood - hope I don't get proved wrong as the factos of this last accident emerge.

However - MCAS is there for a reason (stability in pitch at cruise). And it's dependent on the AOA sensor and Pitot tubes with no seeming strategy for redundancy. So imagine a situation where you lose one of them in cruise. MCAS causes a sort-of runaway trim. Not to worry, the pilot will now pull the plug on it - jolly good. However you've now lost an important protection right at the point the pilot may need it most. We're in an AF447 situation, we've got unreliable airspeed or no AOA indication, and pull back on the yoke a little and because the aircraft is not stable in pitch - stall.

As an interested layman, this isn't a good situation - frankly I'm amazed it was certified. And I think it warranted more communication from Boeing, the FAA and the NTSB. I'm not saying that all Max's should be grounded, it may be that a reduction in operating altitude would address the issue. But all we got was that disturbing statement from Boeing attempting to immediately lay the blame on the customer - not the attitude to safety I imagine most of us would like to see.

A reasoned response but I don't see a problem with Boeing's statement. That Lion Air jet had multiple maintenance incidents but yet they kept returning it to the flight line. You would never see that happen in the US, Canada, Australia, W Europe. That plane would be in the maintenance hangar until it was 100% certain that the issue was fixed.

AEROFAN wrote:

oschkosch wrote:

Well IMHO what will happen starting Monday is the following:
Larger Multinational companies will issue travel warnings to all employees, requesting them to avoid flying on the Max with immediate effect.

That will then lead to an indirect grounding, as Max operating airlines will see extreme revenue loses. That in turn will lead to airlines self grounding the Max before Boeing and/or FAA take any action.

I work for a company that has a few 100 thousand employees globally. I can see the email coming asap.

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How do you know if your flight is on a Max? Are all 737-800 Max?

Ahh a 737-800 is not a 737 Max8

maps4ltd wrote:

I have an American MAX 8 flight next week, so I hope it doesn't get grounded.

How do you know if you are on a max or not? I have a flight next Monday on a 737-8, but I do not know if it's a max. I would prefer not to be on one until whatever problem has been sorted.

bob75013 wrote:

AEROFAN wrote:

oschkosch wrote:

Well IMHO what will happen starting Monday is the following:
Larger Multinational companies will issue travel warnings to all employees, requesting them to avoid flying on the Max with immediate effect.

That will then lead to an indirect grounding, as Max operating airlines will see extreme revenue loses. That in turn will lead to airlines self grounding the Max before Boeing and/or FAA take any action.

I work for a company that has a few 100 thousand employees globally. I can see the email coming asap.

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How do you know if your flight is on a Max? Are all 737-800 Max?

Ahh a 737-800 is not a 737 Max8

It may not be, but how does someone purchasing a ticket on an airline supposed to know this? What designation would AA or any airline use to provide this information to the public when purchasing a ticket given that both are variants of the 800 series?

AEROFAN wrote:

bob75013 wrote:

AEROFAN wrote:

How do you know if your flight is on a Max? Are all 737-800 Max?

Ahh a 737-800 is not a 737 Max8

It may not be, but how does someone purchasing a ticket on an airline supposed to know this? What designation would AA or any airline use to provide this information to the public when purchasing a ticket given that both are variants of the 800 series?

In the flight details section, AA codes the 737-800 (NG) as 738, and the 737 MAX 8 as 7M8. I believe UA website also distinguishes between the 737-900ER and 737 MAX 9 as well.

A lot of arguments saying they shouldn't be grounded because we don't know the cause of this accident. But, in the absence of any other obvious cause, two superficially-similar fatal accidents in close succession is exactly why they SHOULD be grounded. Qantas grounded their A380s after the QF32 near-disaster, voluntarily, until there was an indication of what caused the explosion. I'd expect that similar safety-focused airlines are having crisis meetings today to consider the same with the Max fleets.

AEROFAN wrote:

bob75013 wrote:

AEROFAN wrote:

How do you know if your flight is on a Max? Are all 737-800 Max?

Ahh a 737-800 is not a 737 Max8

It may not be, but how does someone purchasing a ticket on an airline supposed to know this? What designation would AA or any airline use to provide this information to the public when purchasing a ticket given that both are variants of the 800 series?

They ARE NOT both variants of the same 800 series, and anyone booking a flight should be able to get the exact equipment type from the website before booking the flight.