MileHFL400
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Kenya Airways to consider Airbus models

Wed Mar 13, 2019 7:27 am

Looks like Kq now checking out the competition after the Max crash. They were in the market for 10 MAX -8’s previously.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... -of-airbus
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vfw614
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Re: Kenya Airways to consider Airbus models

Wed Mar 13, 2019 9:07 am

Could just be to create more leverage for the negotiations with Boeing. I guess Boeing has to prepare for arguments such as "We really like the MAX, but you know, the public perception is that it is a death trap so we face a commercial risk buying your hardware. What is your best offer, Boeing?"
 
MileHFL400
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Re: Kenya Airways to consider Airbus models

Wed Mar 13, 2019 9:11 am

vfw614 wrote:
Could just be to create more leverage for the negotiations with Boeing. I guess Boeing has to prepare for arguments such as "We really like the MAX, but you know, the public perception is that it is a death trap so we face a commercial risk buying your hardware. What is your best offer, Boeing?"


That’s true but wouldn’t it be poor PR if Kenya Airways were to buy the MAX with fresh memories of 32 Kenyans being killed recently in the ET plane?
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juliuswong
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Re: Kenya Airways to consider Airbus models

Wed Mar 13, 2019 9:36 am

Didn't KQ has a bad blood with Airbus after KQ431 crash off Ivory Coast back in 2000? They retired their Airbus fleet quite quickly after the crash.
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jfk777
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Re: Kenya Airways to consider Airbus models

Wed Mar 13, 2019 11:20 am

Could see A320 planes but the A330-900 or A350-900 would be too big for Kenya.Airways. The 787-8 is just right for their long haul operation to China, LHR, AMS & JFK.
 
DartHerald
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Re: Kenya Airways to consider Airbus models

Wed Mar 13, 2019 11:26 am

There's always the A330-800 though - I'm sure Airbus would cut them a great deal....
 
Andy33
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Re: Kenya Airways to consider Airbus models

Wed Mar 13, 2019 11:27 am

jfk777 wrote:
Could see A320 planes but the A330-900 or A350-900 would be too big for Kenya.Airways. The 787-8 is just right for their long haul operation to China, LHR, AMS & JFK.

If you re-read the first post, you'll see that the decision being reviewed is just whether to purchase MAX8 planes. The long haul fleet isn't in question.
 
MileHFL400
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Re: Kenya Airways to consider Airbus models

Wed Mar 13, 2019 11:36 am

jfk777 wrote:
Could see A320 planes but the A330-900 or A350-900 would be too big for Kenya.Airways. The 787-8 is just right for their long haul operation to China, LHR, AMS & JFK.


Why would the A330-900 be too big for them? They are/were considering the B787-9.
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c933103
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Re: Kenya Airways to consider Airbus models

Wed Mar 13, 2019 11:44 am

https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Compan ... cond-crash

Malaysian government is also reviewing their order
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Re: Kenya Airways to consider Airbus models

Wed Mar 13, 2019 11:48 am

MileHFL400 wrote:
vfw614 wrote:
Could just be to create more leverage for the negotiations with Boeing. I guess Boeing has to prepare for arguments such as "We really like the MAX, but you know, the public perception is that it is a death trap so we face a commercial risk buying your hardware. What is your best offer, Boeing?"


That’s true but wouldn’t it be poor PR if Kenya Airways were to buy the MAX with fresh memories of 32 Kenyans being killed recently in the ET plane?


It certainly would raise eyebrows in Kenya if KQ was to order the 737MAX soon after the ET crash with many Kenyans as victims. So I expect KQ to delay the decision until this storm has passed, the 737MAX is declared safe again, and perhaps production slots have opened up after one or more cancellations.
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Re: Kenya Airways to consider Airbus models

Wed Mar 13, 2019 11:52 am

c933103 wrote:
https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Companies/Malaysia-to-review-Boeing-737-Max-orders-after-second-crash

Malaysian government is also reviewing their order


Malaysian government is actually reviewing the whole MH operation: viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1417681
They've apparently had enough of pouring money in a bottomless pit.
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Re: Kenya Airways to consider Airbus models

Wed Mar 13, 2019 11:55 am

c933103 wrote:
https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Companies/Malaysia-to-review-Boeing-737-Max-orders-after-second-crash

Malaysian government is also reviewing their order


I really don't blame them. In the light of the events over the past 5 years, who in general public would volunteer to fly on a Malaysian Airlines Boeing 737-MAX?

That would be the equivalent of boarding an airship by Hindenburg Airways, with the vessel name Titanic, on a Friday the 13th, with the captain telling passengers with an evil smile that he is hearing voices who are commanding him.
 
MileHFL400
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Re: Kenya Airways to consider Airbus models

Wed Mar 13, 2019 12:14 pm

frigatebird wrote:
MileHFL400 wrote:
vfw614 wrote:
Could just be to create more leverage for the negotiations with Boeing. I guess Boeing has to prepare for arguments such as "We really like the MAX, but you know, the public perception is that it is a death trap so we face a commercial risk buying your hardware. What is your best offer, Boeing?"


That’s true but wouldn’t it be poor PR if Kenya Airways were to buy the MAX with fresh memories of 32 Kenyans being killed recently in the ET plane?


It certainly would raise eyebrows in Kenya if KQ was to order the 737MAX soon after the ET crash with many Kenyans as victims. So I expect KQ to delay the decision until this storm has passed, the 737MAX is declared safe again, and perhaps production slots have opened up after one or more cancellations.


Are you anticipating cancellations?
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Re: Kenya Airways to consider Airbus models

Wed Mar 13, 2019 12:41 pm

MileHFL400 wrote:
frigatebird wrote:
MileHFL400 wrote:

That’s true but wouldn’t it be poor PR if Kenya Airways were to buy the MAX with fresh memories of 32 Kenyans being killed recently in the ET plane?


It certainly would raise eyebrows in Kenya if KQ was to order the 737MAX soon after the ET crash with many Kenyans as victims. So I expect KQ to delay the decision until this storm has passed, the 737MAX is declared safe again, and perhaps production slots have opened up after one or more cancellations.


Are you anticipating cancellations?

Yes. Lion Air. I think they've over ordered. They also have hundreds of A320neo's on order, IIRC for subsidiaries or for leasing out, but I believe they were a bit too optimistic when placing all these orders.
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Re: Kenya Airways to consider Airbus models

Wed Mar 13, 2019 1:13 pm

frigatebird wrote:
It certainly would raise eyebrows in Kenya if KQ was to order the 737MAX soon after the ET crash with many Kenyans as victims.


I was thinking about this in general for new MAX orders from any airline. Maybe it could go to the "undisclosed" corner until the public backlash has died down.
 
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Re: Kenya Airways to consider Airbus models

Wed Mar 13, 2019 1:27 pm

Erebus wrote:
frigatebird wrote:
It certainly would raise eyebrows in Kenya if KQ was to order the 737MAX soon after the ET crash with many Kenyans as victims.


I was thinking about this in general for new MAX orders from any airline. Maybe it could go to the "undisclosed" corner until the public backlash has died down.

:checkmark:

There might be a small dry spell, but airlines are also going to see this as an opportunity to get next gen (well, current gen now) narrowbodies for cheap once the Max is fixed/all cleared, and Airbus still has a huge A320neo backlog so it is not like they can accommodate many new orders with quick deliveries.
 
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keesje
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Re: Kenya Airways to consider Airbus models

Wed Mar 13, 2019 1:34 pm

I think it is all much to early to draw any conclusions. Virgin Australia, Lion Air, Malaysian Airlines, Vietjet, Kenya Airways are going public but won't decide anything soon.
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Re: Kenya Airways to consider Airbus models

Wed Mar 13, 2019 4:40 pm

juliuswong wrote:
Didn't KQ has a bad blood with Airbus after KQ431 crash off Ivory Coast back in 2000? They retired their Airbus fleet quite quickly after the crash.

AA did with Airbus after the tail snapped off of AA587...look at their fleet makeup now.
 
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eastafspot
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Re: Kenya Airways to consider Airbus models

Wed Mar 13, 2019 5:07 pm

Did not click on the link, but when are(were) they considering the purchase these MAX8?
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MileHFL400
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Re: Kenya Airways to consider Airbus models

Wed Mar 13, 2019 5:34 pm

eastafspot wrote:
Did not click on the link, but when are(were) they considering the purchase these MAX8?


During the course of this year i believe.
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Floridaguy74656
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Re: Kenya Airways to consider Airbus models

Wed Mar 13, 2019 6:10 pm

You know who would love to snap up 737 slots if others cancel ? SOUTHWEST.
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VSMUT
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Re: Kenya Airways to consider Airbus models

Wed Mar 13, 2019 6:27 pm

keesje wrote:
I think it is all much to early to draw any conclusions. Virgin Australia, Lion Air, Malaysian Airlines, Vietjet, Kenya Airways are going public but won't decide anything soon.


What about airlines that were about to decide? Didn't Air France - KLM say they were going to announce a decision at the Paris Air Show? Qantas was also rumoured to be close to deciding as well. Not so lucky timing...
 
HaulSudson
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Re: Kenya Airways to consider Airbus models

Wed Mar 13, 2019 6:31 pm

Given the precarious financial situation KQ is in, I wonder they could order anything at all.
 
MileHFL400
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Re: Kenya Airways to consider Airbus models

Wed Mar 13, 2019 6:46 pm

HaulSudson wrote:
Given the precarious financial situation KQ is in, I wonder they could order anything at all.


Well we haven’t seen their 2018 results yet so let’s see. They have been talking about buying new aircraft for a while.
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aemoreira1981
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Re: Kenya Airways to consider Airbus models

Wed Mar 13, 2019 7:10 pm

What about A321neo planes from a leasing company’s order book and then A220-300s to replace the Embraer fleet? The A321neo could carry belly cargo to reduce a need for intra-Africa wide body operations.
 
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gatibosgru
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Re: Kenya Airways to consider Airbus models

Wed Mar 13, 2019 7:18 pm

Some good MAX discounts coming.
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MileHFL400
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Re: Kenya Airways to consider Airbus models

Thu Mar 14, 2019 3:57 am

aemoreira1981 wrote:
What about A321neo planes from a leasing company’s order book and then A220-300s to replace the Embraer fleet? The A321neo could carry belly cargo to reduce a need for intra-Africa wide body operations.


They aren’t going to be replacing the e jets anytime soon.
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musman9853
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Re: Kenya Airways to consider Airbus models

Thu Mar 14, 2019 10:04 am

Don't think there's gonna be many long term impacts for Boeing. How many 737s were lost by rudder hardovers? Like 3? And now no one cares
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MileHFL400
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Re: Kenya Airways to consider Airbus models

Thu Mar 14, 2019 11:34 am

musman9853 wrote:
Don't think there's gonna be many long term impacts for Boeing. How many 737s were lost by rudder hardovers? Like 3? And now no one cares


Yes but now there’s a worldwide grounding with no end in sight.
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Max Q
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Re: Kenya Airways to consider Airbus models

Thu Mar 14, 2019 11:56 am

I predict this issue will be fixed within a month, and forgotten by two, minuscule if any affect on orders.
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Flying-Tiger
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Re: Kenya Airways to consider Airbus models

Thu Mar 14, 2019 12:08 pm

Max Q wrote:
I predict this issue will be fixed within a month, and forgotten by two, minuscule if any affect on orders.


Might be, but I think it´s not realistic. Whatever the fix will be it will be thoroughly tested and I´m quite sure not only by FAA bus EASA, CAA etc. That will take a while - and you´ll need to re-assure airlines that the job has been properly done. Problem is: even if they roll out the fix for the percieved issues of the Lion Air crash they will still need detailed results from the Ethiopian crash to make sure they´ve covered it all. That alone will extend the time window for any fix to be applied by days or rather weeks. I don´t think any authority will accept an intermediate fix not, they will need to go for the full package.

Next one to "join the club" to reduce 737max orders is Garuda, considering to cancel their order de facto completely (reducing from 49 to "below 20" and considering switching suppliers).
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DartHerald
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Re: Kenya Airways to consider Airbus models

Thu Mar 14, 2019 12:09 pm

It will be interesting to see if a quick fix is the approach taken - I wouldn't necessarily count on it, and whatever the fix I would expect a test fling program to be needed to validate it. Those at the FAA who might consider their fingers burned by allowing an apparently laissez faire approach to certification of the 737-MAX might be rather more cautious second time round, when they are likely to be under intense media and industry scrutiny.
 
Aviation737
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Re: Kenya Airways to consider Airbus models

Thu Mar 14, 2019 12:33 pm

Is there any silver lining for Boeing? As a Boeing fan it hurts to see that some airlines might cancel their orders especially after how well they did last year
 
estorilm
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Re: Kenya Airways to consider Airbus models

Thu Mar 14, 2019 12:45 pm

Aviation737 wrote:
Is there any silver lining for Boeing? As a Boeing fan it hurts to see that some airlines might cancel their orders especially after how well they did last year

Their backlog is so massive, it likely doesn't matter - they've basically got years to figure something out. Public perception and Boeing's reputation is the larger issue here.
 
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Re: Kenya Airways to consider Airbus models

Thu Mar 14, 2019 12:50 pm

gatibosgru wrote:
Some good MAX discounts coming.


MAX on the roads why not, but no longer in the air from a passenger point of view.
 
oldannyboy
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Re: Kenya Airways to consider Airbus models

Thu Mar 14, 2019 4:56 pm

MileHFL400 wrote:
vfw614 wrote:
Could just be to create more leverage for the negotiations with Boeing. I guess Boeing has to prepare for arguments such as "We really like the MAX, but you know, the public perception is that it is a death trap so we face a commercial risk buying your hardware. What is your best offer, Boeing?"


That’s true but wouldn’t it be poor PR if Kenya Airways were to buy the MAX with fresh memories of 32 Kenyans being killed recently in the ET plane?


They'll just wait a bit, let the dust settle and the issues get resolved, and will go ahead with the order. And probably Boeing will be glad to give them a discount for not going Airbus.
Seriously, I don't see KQ going back to Airbus. They had a pretty sour relationship.
 
oldannyboy
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Re: Kenya Airways to consider Airbus models

Thu Mar 14, 2019 5:06 pm

musman9853 wrote:
Don't think there's gonna be many long term impacts for Boeing. How many 737s were lost by rudder hardovers? Like 3? And now no one cares


True, fully agree. But I must say for clarity's sake that in that precise instance (the 737 rudder "issue") the FAA's lack of proper and meaningful action might have mitigated the impact of what was a very serious fault with the aircraft design, and in turn (deliberately or otherwise) help Boeing. This time the FAA has literally been cornered, with the inevitable consequence of making the vast [and normally uninformed] travelling public very much aware of the troubled aircraft brand/model. It kind of harks back to when people about to board a Fokker F27 at a regional airport where praying they wouldn't be boarding a DC-10!
 
Coexstud
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Re: Kenya Airways to consider Airbus models

Thu Mar 14, 2019 5:11 pm

As compared too the many Airbus accidents like Airfrance AirNewzealand and et al in the country or seas surrounding France itself
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Kenya Airways to consider Airbus models

Thu Mar 14, 2019 5:12 pm

MileHFL400 wrote:
HaulSudson wrote:
Given the precarious financial situation KQ is in, I wonder they could order anything at all.


Well we haven’t seen their 2018 results yet so let’s see. They have been talking about buying new aircraft for a while.

If there are not quarterly reports, the situation isn't improving.

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MileHFL400
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Re: Kenya Airways to consider Airbus models

Thu Mar 14, 2019 6:23 pm

oldannyboy wrote:
MileHFL400 wrote:
vfw614 wrote:
Could just be to create more leverage for the negotiations with Boeing. I guess Boeing has to prepare for arguments such as "We really like the MAX, but you know, the public perception is that it is a death trap so we face a commercial risk buying your hardware. What is your best offer, Boeing?"


That’s true but wouldn’t it be poor PR if Kenya Airways were to buy the MAX with fresh memories of 32 Kenyans being killed recently in the ET plane?


They'll just wait a bit, let the dust settle and the issues get resolved, and will go ahead with the order. And probably Boeing will be glad to give them a discount for not going Airbus.
Seriously, I don't see KQ going back to Airbus. They had a pretty sour relationship.


That was something like 19 years ago!
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nairobby
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Re: Kenya Airways to consider Airbus models

Mon Mar 18, 2019 7:57 am

jfk777 wrote:
Could see A320 planes but the A330-900 or A350-900 would be too big for Kenya.Airways. The 787-8 is just right for their long haul operation to China, LHR, AMS & JFK.


A359 wouldn't be too big its similar capacity to the 772 which they operated in their most profitable era. In fact the 788's don't offer enough capacity for LHR/AMS
 
nairobby
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Re: Kenya Airways to consider Airbus models

Mon Mar 18, 2019 8:01 am

However the Max order would just be bad PR now given KQ's terrible perception at the moment. Maybe 2021 ish
 
jfk777
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Re: Kenya Airways to consider Airbus models

Mon Mar 18, 2019 8:13 am

nairobby wrote:
jfk777 wrote:
Could see A320 planes but the A330-900 or A350-900 would be too big for Kenya.Airways. The 787-8 is just right for their long haul operation to China, LHR, AMS & JFK.


A359 wouldn't be too big its similar capacity to the 772 which they operated in their most profitable era. In fact the 788's don't offer enough capacity for LHR/AMS


If the 787-8 is not big enough then there are the 787-9 and 787-10. Kenya Airways does not need a 16 hour capable 777 sized A350-900 for its flights to London and Amsterdam. Smaller is better for Kenya, it had several 77W for a while which proved way too big.
 
ewt340
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Re: Kenya Airways to consider Airbus models

Mon Mar 18, 2019 8:24 am

Yeah, I see A320neo and A321neo in the mix for them. Even A321XLR for regional growth.

As for the long-haul fleet, B787-8 is a perfect aircraft for them. They didn't have as much traffic as other African competitors.
Besides, B787-9 and B787-10 is in the corner.
 
ELBOB
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Re: Kenya Airways to consider Airbus models

Mon Mar 18, 2019 9:59 am

The sooner that the Chinese can get a competitive narrowbody into the market, the better. This duopoly is ridiculous; 10,000 aircraft backlog and if you want a new 180-seater you have to join the queue, since they have no motivation to churn through that backlog quickly.

I know most posters on this forum like to bash Chinese efforts, but they are the only realistic hope at this point.
 
MileHFL400
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Re: Kenya Airways to consider Airbus models

Mon Mar 18, 2019 10:10 am

ewt340 wrote:
Yeah, I see A320neo and A321neo in the mix for them. Even A321XLR for regional growth.

As for the long-haul fleet, B787-8 is a perfect aircraft for them. They didn't have as much traffic as other African competitors.
Besides, B787-9 and B787-10 is in the corner.


I think you ll find KQ has far more traffic than most of their African competition being the 5th largest airline on the continent. In addition Nairobi still has more O/D traffic than Addis.
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ewt340
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Re: Kenya Airways to consider Airbus models

Mon Mar 18, 2019 10:40 am

MileHFL400 wrote:
ewt340 wrote:
Yeah, I see A320neo and A321neo in the mix for them. Even A321XLR for regional growth.

As for the long-haul fleet, B787-8 is a perfect aircraft for them. They didn't have as much traffic as other African competitors.
Besides, B787-9 and B787-10 is in the corner.


I think you ll find KQ has far more traffic than most of their African competition being the 5th largest airline on the continent. In addition Nairobi still has more O/D traffic than Addis.


That's the misconception though. 5th largest airline in the nation doesn't mean more large-widebody aircraft. It could also mean lots of smaller aircraft like B737. Just like ryanair. Carry lots of pax, doesn't need large-widebody.

Ethiopian is definitely larger in terms of fleet number or passengers carried.
 
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Re: Kenya Airways to consider Airbus models

Mon Mar 18, 2019 11:31 am

MileHFL400 wrote:
I think you ll find KQ has far more traffic than most of their African competition being the 5th largest airline on the continent. In addition Nairobi still has more O/D traffic than Addis.


Maybe, but they're pretty small beer with a total fleet of just 35 planes.
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Harry765
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Re: Kenya Airways to consider Airbus models

Mon Mar 18, 2019 11:34 am

Find out the type of aircraft you will be flying in when booking your flight on Kenya-Airways.com. This can be done in the booking confirmation sent to you by e-mail or in your flight details after logging in to Modify booking.
 
evanb
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Re: Kenya Airways to consider Airbus models

Mon Mar 18, 2019 2:30 pm

MileHFL400 wrote:
I think you ll find KQ has far more traffic than most of their African competition being the 5th largest airline on the continent. In addition Nairobi still has more O/D traffic than Addis.


Indeed, NBO has much larger O&D traffic than ADD, but that also results in KQ having a lot more competition for that O&D traffic than ET. It's for the same reason when people cry why can't SA be more like ET and then not realizing that it's a strawman.

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