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Stitch
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Re: LH orders 20 B789 and 20 additional A350; Will sell 6 A380s back to Airbus

Sat Mar 16, 2019 4:37 pm

gatibosgru wrote:
And with such a mixed fleet is it really farfetched to imagine, maybe, LH or someone in the group would potentially operate the NEO?


Not at all and the A330-900 would be a "like for like" replacement for the A330-300 fleet. But the 787-9 could do the job, as well, and offer a fair bit more flexibility (as could the A350-900).

And LH did state that they were looking to simplify their fleet because they operate so many models now: MD-11, 747, 767, 777, 787, A330, A340, A350 and A380. That is every widebody model on offer from the last two decades from Airbus and Boeing/McD.

They specifically called out that the A350-900s, 787-9s and 777-9s would replace the 767-300ER, A340-300, A340-600 and 747-400 fleets and the MD-11Fs will be retired as the final 777Fs on order arrive. So by next decade the LH Group passenger widebody fleet will be the A330-300, A350-900, A380-800, 747-8, 777-300ER, 777-9 and 787-9.
 
vfw614
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Re: LH orders 20 B789 and 20 additional A350; Will sell 6 A380s back to Airbus

Sat Mar 16, 2019 4:43 pm

They can probably bring it down to three aircraft families in a couple of years: A350, 777 and 787. Although there may be a business case to add the A330-900.
 
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Revelation
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Re: LH orders 20 B789 and 20 additional A350; Will sell 6 A380s back to Airbus

Sat Mar 16, 2019 4:44 pm

Lewton wrote:
SEPilot wrote:
gatibosgru wrote:
And with such a mixed fleet is it really farfetched to imagine, maybe, LH or someone in the group would potentially operate the NEO?

Why? They already have the 787, and I have seen no analysis that says that the A330neo performs better; in fact, the 787 is better in every way that I know of. So what would be the point in buying it?

Only reason would be for destinations that don't need the 787's range, but I doubt Lufthansa Group has enough of them to justify one more type.

That's what the NMA is for! :stirthepot:
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Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
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neutrino
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Re: LH orders 20 B789 and 20 additional A350; Will sell 6 A380s back to Airbus

Sat Mar 16, 2019 4:47 pm

Lewton wrote:
Lufthansa likes the number 9!
787-9
A350-900
777-9

In Mandarin Chinese, 9 - being a homophone for longevity - is right up there with 8 as far as auspiciousness goes.
Just saying. :smile:
Potestatem obscuri lateris nescitis
 
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Re: LH orders 20 B789 and 20 additional A350; Will sell 6 A380s back to Airbus

Sat Mar 16, 2019 4:54 pm

neutrino wrote:
Lewton wrote:
Lufthansa likes the number 9!
787-9
A350-900
777-9

In Mandarin Chinese, 9 - being a homophone for longevity - is right up there with 8 as far as auspiciousness goes.
Just saying. :smile:

Bodes well for 797! :biggrin:
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
columba
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Re: LH orders 20 B789 and 20 additional A350; Will sell 6 A380s back to Airbus

Sat Mar 16, 2019 5:28 pm

seabosdca wrote:
Did not expect Eurowings 332s to be leaving the fleet anytime soon. There's nothing obvious to replace them given current orders.

They are already getting A330-300s from Lufthansa.
It will forever be a McDonnell Douglas MD 80 , Boeing MD 80 sounds so wrong
 
CFRPwingALbody
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Re: LH orders 20 B789 and 20 additional A350; Will sell 6 A380s back to Airbus

Sat Mar 16, 2019 5:43 pm

Stitch wrote:
gatibosgru wrote:
And with such a mixed fleet is it really farfetched to imagine, maybe, LH or someone in the group would potentially operate the NEO?


Not at all and the A330-900 would be a "like for like" replacement for the A330-300 fleet. But the 787-9 could do the job, as well, and offer a fair bit more flexibility (as could the A350-900).

Sorry Stitch I think your argument has to be corrected into:
"Not at all and the A330-900 (251mT MTOW) would be a "like for like" replacement for the A340-300 fleet. But the 787-9 could do the job, as well, and offer the same flexibility."
The A330NEO has pilot-type rating commonality with the A330/A350, A320 & A380. I think Lufthansa group could use both the A330(NEO) and 787 well.
May I find it odd that Lufthansa group doesn't mention Brussels Airlines and German Wings in its annual report presentation.
For their fleet I also find it odd they only chose to take the -9 / -900 variants. Is Lufthansa group trying to push A and/or B to develop something?
 
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SEPilot
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Re: LH orders 20 B789 and 20 additional A350; Will sell 6 A380s back to Airbus

Sat Mar 16, 2019 6:18 pm

vfw614 wrote:
They can probably bring it down to three aircraft families in a couple of years: A350, 777 and 787. Although there may be a business case to add the A330-900.

And what would that business case be? What does the A339 do better than the 789? Please inform me; I am not aware of any type of route where it would have an edge.
The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
 
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Stitch
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Re: LH orders 20 B789 and 20 additional A350; Will sell 6 A380s back to Airbus

Sat Mar 16, 2019 6:45 pm

CFRPwingALbody wrote:
Sorry Stitch I think your argument has to be corrected into:
"Not at all and the A330-900 (251mT MTOW) would be a "like for like" replacement for the A340-300 fleet. But the 787-9 could do the job, as well, and offer the same flexibility."
The A330NEO has pilot-type rating commonality with the A330/A350, A320 & A380. I think Lufthansa group could use both the A330(NEO) and 787 well.


According to posts up-thread, LH Group executives have stated that the A340-300s operated by the Group's airlines will be replaced by the 787-9 and/or A350-900 on order.
 
vfw614
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Re: LH orders 20 B789 and 20 additional A350; Will sell 6 A380s back to Airbus

Sat Mar 16, 2019 7:50 pm

SEPilot wrote:
vfw614 wrote:
They can probably bring it down to three aircraft families in a couple of years: A350, 777 and 787. Although there may be a business case to add the A330-900.

And what would that business case be? What does the A339 do better than the 789? Please inform me; I am not aware of any type of route where it would have an edge.


Lower capital costs. It's cheaper than the 787-9. With a fleet of 170+ long-haul planes, you can just as well have 4 instead of 3 sub-fleets.

Based on your argument, nobody should be buying A330-900 - but there are almost 300 orders booked. If you don't need all what the 787-9 offers, why waste the additional acquisition costs?
Last edited by vfw614 on Sat Mar 16, 2019 7:53 pm, edited 2 times in total.
 
trijetsonly
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Re: LH orders 20 B789 and 20 additional A350; Will sell 6 A380s back to Airbus

Sat Mar 16, 2019 7:52 pm

LH779 wrote:
N14AZ wrote:
- LH was the first non-ME3-B77X-customer

Didn't they order the 77X even before the ME3?


Yes, Lufthansa was the launching customer for the 777X (first ever customer to order that type of aircraft). Even though that doesn't necessarily mean, that they are going to be the first operator.
Happy Landings
 
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Stitch
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Re: LH orders 20 B789 and 20 additional A350; Will sell 6 A380s back to Airbus

Sat Mar 16, 2019 7:54 pm

vfw614 wrote:
Lower capital costs. It's cheaper than the 787-9. With a fleet of 170+ long-haul planes, you can just as well have 4 instead of 3 sub-fleets.


It may not be cheaper considering the 787 production rate will be three times or more that of the A330neo per plans of both OEMs and that has been rumored to allow Boeing to offer terms equal or better than Airbus.


vfw614 wrote:
With a fleet of 170+ long-haul planes, you can just as well have 4 instead of 3 sub-fleets.


But the Group has stated they want to simplify and reduce the number of sub-fleets they operate.
Last edited by Stitch on Sat Mar 16, 2019 8:05 pm, edited 3 times in total.
 
trijetsonly
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Re: LH orders 20 B789 and 20 additional A350; Will sell 6 A380s back to Airbus

Sat Mar 16, 2019 7:58 pm

vfw614 wrote:
SEPilot wrote:
vfw614 wrote:
They can probably bring it down to three aircraft families in a couple of years: A350, 777 and 787. Although there may be a business case to add the A330-900.

And what would that business case be? What does the A339 do better than the 789? Please inform me; I am not aware of any type of route where it would have an edge.


Lower capital costs. It's cheaper than the 787-9. With a fleet of 170+ long-haul planes, you can just as well have 4 instead of 3 sub-fleets.

Based on your argument, nobody should be buying A330-900 - but there are almost 300 orders booked. If you don't need all what the 787-9 offers, why waste the additional acquisition costs?


You seem to forget an important point:
List price for the A330-900 is $ 296.400.000
List price for the 787-9 is $ 292.500.000

I guess that the discounts are similar for both manufacturers.
That's why the A330neo doesn't sell like hot cakes.
Happy Landings
 
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Re: LH orders 20 B789 and 20 additional A350; Will sell 6 A380s back to Airbus

Sat Mar 16, 2019 8:24 pm

vfw614 wrote:
Given the combined longhaul fleets of Lufthansa, Swissair, Eurowings, Brussels Airlines, Lufthansa Cargo and Austrian, Lufthansa group must be one of the most important (and thus powerful) buyers in the market. As it stands, they operate 173 long-haul aircraft which must be one of the largest fleets worldwide.

Airbus A330 = 50
Airbus A340 = 35
Airbus A350 = 12
Airbus A380 = 14
Boeing 747 = 32
Boeing 767 = 6
Boeing 777 = 22
MD11 = 12


I mean, it's pretty clear that A340, A380, B747, and B767 need to go before mid 2020. Doesn't really make sense for them to keep it that long.

I think A350, B787 and B777X is a great combo for now.
 
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Re: LH orders 20 B789 and 20 additional A350; Will sell 6 A380s back to Airbus

Sat Mar 16, 2019 10:17 pm

Stitch wrote:
vfw614 wrote:
With a fleet of 170+ long-haul planes, you can just as well have 4 instead of 3 sub-fleets.


But the Group has stated they want to simplify and reduce the number of sub-fleets they operate.

Post 787/RR and A320/PW issues, and now MAX, many airlines (and those providing business interruption / loss of profits insurance), will have a different take on the desirability / wisdom of model rationalisation (and being early adopters).
 
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Re: LH orders 20 B789 and 20 additional A350; Will sell 6 A380s back to Airbus

Sat Mar 16, 2019 10:36 pm

vfw614 wrote:
SEPilot wrote:
vfw614 wrote:
They can probably bring it down to three aircraft families in a couple of years: A350, 777 and 787. Although there may be a business case to add the A330-900.

And what would that business case be? What does the A339 do better than the 789? Please inform me; I am not aware of any type of route where it would have an edge.


Lower capital costs. It's cheaper than the 787-9. With a fleet of 170+ long-haul planes, you can just as well have 4 instead of 3 sub-fleets.

Based on your argument, nobody should be buying A330-900 - but there are almost 300 orders booked. If you don't need all what the 787-9 offers, why waste the additional acquisition costs?

When the A330neo was launched Boeing was having production problems with the 787, and were losing money on each one they built. So Airbus saw an opportunity, even though their plane could not really equal the 787. But since then Boeing solved their production problems, upped their production rate, and slashed the price. And since then the only substantial order has been from EK, who had to find something to do with their A380 deposits. So since the list price of the 787 is now lower than the A330neo I expect the actual selling price will be the same or a bit lower. So I find it highly unlikely that any airline will buy the A330neo unless they strongly desire to buy Airbus for one reason or other, or they need planes in a hurry and Airbus can deliver before Boeing.
The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
 
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Stitch
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Re: LH orders 20 B789 and 20 additional A350; Will sell 6 A380s back to Airbus

Sat Mar 16, 2019 10:37 pm

smartplane wrote:
Post 787/RR and A320/PW issues, and now MAX, many airlines (and those providing business interruption / loss of profits insurance), will have a different take on the desirability / wisdom of model rationalization (and being early adopters).


A fair point, but the LH Group would have that "diversification insurance" on:

1) an airframe OEM basis by having Airbus and Boeing
2) an engine OEM basis by having General Electric and Rolls-Royce
2) a family basis by having the 777, 787 and A350

And they could add even more insurance by dual-sourcing the 787 engine OEM, which they cannot do with the A330neo since it is RR-only (and uses the same base engine as the 787 so a problem that knocks out the Trent 1000 could very likely knock out the Trent 7000, as well).
 
LHPII
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Re: LH orders 20 B789 and 20 additional A350; Will sell 6 A380s back to Airbus

Sat Mar 16, 2019 11:00 pm

CFRPwingALbody wrote:
May I find it odd that Lufthansa group doesn't mention Brussels Airlines and German Wings in its annual report presentation.


SN and GW are part of Eurowings
 
EChid
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Re: LH orders 20 B789 and 20 additional A350; Will sell 6 A380s back to Airbus

Sat Mar 16, 2019 11:05 pm

ewt340 wrote:
vfw614 wrote:
Given the combined longhaul fleets of Lufthansa, Swissair, Eurowings, Brussels Airlines, Lufthansa Cargo and Austrian, Lufthansa group must be one of the most important (and thus powerful) buyers in the market. As it stands, they operate 173 long-haul aircraft which must be one of the largest fleets worldwide.

Airbus A330 = 50
Airbus A340 = 35
Airbus A350 = 12
Airbus A380 = 14
Boeing 747 = 32
Boeing 767 = 6
Boeing 777 = 22
MD11 = 12


I mean, it's pretty clear that A340, A380, B747, and B767 need to go before mid 2020. Doesn't really make sense for them to keep it that long.

I think A350, B787 and B777X is a great combo for now.

How is it clear that the A380s and B747s need to go by the mid-2020s? By that point, their oldest A380 will be just hitting 14 years and their youngest will be barely 10 years old, and their 748s are slightly younger than that. LH generally doesn't have a habit of just dumping 12-year-old aircraft. Now, if they really dislike their 388s (as sad as that makes me), I could see them dumping that fleet type - but I doubt both VLA fleets would go at such a young age. Look at how old some of those A340s are, and they certainly aren't the world's most efficient aircraft type.
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Re: LH orders 20 B789 and 20 additional A350; Will sell 6 A380s back to Airbus

Sun Mar 17, 2019 12:16 am

Stitch wrote:
It may not be cheaper considering the 787 production rate will be three times or more that of the A330neo per plans of both OEMs and that has been rumored to allow Boeing to offer terms equal or better than Airbus.


Two words: predatory pricing.
 
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Stitch
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Re: LH orders 20 B789 and 20 additional A350; Will sell 6 A380s back to Airbus

Sun Mar 17, 2019 12:31 am

Strato2 wrote:
Two words: predatory pricing.


Or Airbus is just overcharging.
 
2175301
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Re: LH orders 20 B789 and 20 additional A350; Will sell 6 A380s back to Airbus

Sun Mar 17, 2019 3:57 am

Stitch wrote:
Strato2 wrote:
Two words: predatory pricing.


Or Airbus is just overcharging.


No - simple competition. All indications are that the Boeing 787 is just more cost competitive (cheaper) to build at this point, and thus can be sold at a lower price than the A330 while maintaining a decent profit markup for Boeing.

Airbus likely has a similar but smaller advantage for the A320 family over the Boeing 737 family - which is why it outsells the 737.

Have a great day,
 
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Re: LH orders 20 B789 and 20 additional A350; Will sell 6 A380s back to Airbus

Sun Mar 17, 2019 9:44 am

2175301 wrote:
Stitch wrote:
Strato2 wrote:
Two words: predatory pricing.


Or Airbus is just overcharging.


No - simple competition. All indications are that the Boeing 787 is just more cost competitive (cheaper) to build at this point, and thus can be sold at a lower price than the A330 while maintaining a decent profit markup for Boeing.

Airbus likely has a similar but smaller advantage for the A320 family over the Boeing 737 family - which is why it outsells the 737.

Have a great day,

Well, I disagree about the A320 vs. 737 question. The A320neo family is slightly more efficient than the 737MAX, and the A321neo is larger and has better performance than the 739MAX. Hence the A321neo outsells the 739MAX by a big margin. But the 738MAX is slightly larger than the A320neo, and so has held its own against it. Boeing has upped its production rate higher than Airbus and hence has been able to deliver planes to customers sooner than Airbus. They may also be able to build them for less. But I think the fundamental reason tha Airbus outsells Boeing in narrowbodies is it’s edge in efficiency.
The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
 
ewt340
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Re: LH orders 20 B789 and 20 additional A350; Will sell 6 A380s back to Airbus

Sun Mar 17, 2019 10:03 am

EChid wrote:
ewt340 wrote:
vfw614 wrote:
Given the combined longhaul fleets of Lufthansa, Swissair, Eurowings, Brussels Airlines, Lufthansa Cargo and Austrian, Lufthansa group must be one of the most important (and thus powerful) buyers in the market. As it stands, they operate 173 long-haul aircraft which must be one of the largest fleets worldwide.

Airbus A330 = 50
Airbus A340 = 35
Airbus A350 = 12
Airbus A380 = 14
Boeing 747 = 32
Boeing 767 = 6
Boeing 777 = 22
MD11 = 12


I mean, it's pretty clear that A340, A380, B747, and B767 need to go before mid 2020. Doesn't really make sense for them to keep it that long.

I think A350, B787 and B777X is a great combo for now.

How is it clear that the A380s and B747s need to go by the mid-2020s? By that point, their oldest A380 will be just hitting 14 years and their youngest will be barely 10 years old, and their 748s are slightly younger than that. LH generally doesn't have a habit of just dumping 12-year-old aircraft. Now, if they really dislike their 388s (as sad as that makes me), I could see them dumping that fleet type - but I doubt both VLA fleets would go at such a young age. Look at how old some of those A340s are, and they certainly aren't the world's most efficient aircraft type.


The Difference between A380 and A340 is the fact that they could fill A340 with enough passengers to turn profit. Not soo much on A380 which is probably the size of 2 A340-300.

Also, you do realize that they are selling back 6 of their A380 to Airbus right?
 
EChid
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Re: LH orders 20 B789 and 20 additional A350; Will sell 6 A380s back to Airbus

Sun Mar 17, 2019 4:31 pm

ewt340 wrote:
EChid wrote:
ewt340 wrote:

I mean, it's pretty clear that A340, A380, B747, and B767 need to go before mid 2020. Doesn't really make sense for them to keep it that long.

I think A350, B787 and B777X is a great combo for now.

How is it clear that the A380s and B747s need to go by the mid-2020s? By that point, their oldest A380 will be just hitting 14 years and their youngest will be barely 10 years old, and their 748s are slightly younger than that. LH generally doesn't have a habit of just dumping 12-year-old aircraft. Now, if they really dislike their 388s (as sad as that makes me), I could see them dumping that fleet type - but I doubt both VLA fleets would go at such a young age. Look at how old some of those A340s are, and they certainly aren't the world's most efficient aircraft type.


The Difference between A380 and A340 is the fact that they could fill A340 with enough passengers to turn profit. Not soo much on A380 which is probably the size of 2 A340-300.

Also, you do realize that they are selling back 6 of their A380 to Airbus right?

I'm fully aware of that, yes, which is why I allowed for the fact they may choose to get rid of the fleet type, exceptionally. Which still provides zero explanation for why it's "pretty clear" that the airline should bin its then 12-year-old 748s in the mid-2020s.
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ewt340
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Re: LH orders 20 B789 and 20 additional A350; Will sell 6 A380s back to Airbus

Sun Mar 17, 2019 6:16 pm

EChid wrote:
ewt340 wrote:
EChid wrote:
How is it clear that the A380s and B747s need to go by the mid-2020s? By that point, their oldest A380 will be just hitting 14 years and their youngest will be barely 10 years old, and their 748s are slightly younger than that. LH generally doesn't have a habit of just dumping 12-year-old aircraft. Now, if they really dislike their 388s (as sad as that makes me), I could see them dumping that fleet type - but I doubt both VLA fleets would go at such a young age. Look at how old some of those A340s are, and they certainly aren't the world's most efficient aircraft type.


The Difference between A380 and A340 is the fact that they could fill A340 with enough passengers to turn profit. Not soo much on A380 which is probably the size of 2 A340-300.

Also, you do realize that they are selling back 6 of their A380 to Airbus right?

I'm fully aware of that, yes, which is why I allowed for the fact they may choose to get rid of the fleet type, exceptionally. Which still provides zero explanation for why it's "pretty clear" that the airline should bin its then 12-year-old 748s in the mid-2020s.


inefficiency, too much capacity, and the fact that they order B777-9 instead of ordering more B747-8i.
Also, Lufthansa Cargo doesn't operate B747-8F, so the incentive to keep B747-8i would be less viable. Unlike other Airlines like Korean Air who uses B747-400F and B747-8F. There is less reason to keep em.

It's not like B747-8i is as efficient as B787-9 or A350-900.
 
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Stitch
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Re: LH orders 20 B789 and 20 additional A350; Will sell 6 A380s back to Airbus

Sun Mar 17, 2019 6:21 pm

ewt340 wrote:
It's not like B747-8i is as efficient as B787-9 or A350-900.


True, but it is still efficient thanks to having "current generation" engines that can share PiPs with the GEnx on the 787 family (which will likely see more PiPs). So I could see LH operating it for an extended period time for high-traffic markets in a three-class Business / Premium Economy / Economy configuration as it will be able to hold more than the 777-9 in that config.
 
vfw614
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Re: LH orders 20 B789 and 20 additional A350; Will sell 6 A380s back to Airbus

Sun Mar 17, 2019 6:33 pm

Unlike at the time when Lufthansa ordered the 747-8i and A380, the group now spreads its longhaul operation across five hubs and FRA has lost its once dominant position. Instead of growing with ever larger aircraft at FRA, Lufthansa now has to right-size five different hubs.
 
LDRA
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Re: LH orders 20 B789 and 20 additional A350; Will sell 6 A380s back to Airbus

Sun Mar 17, 2019 6:39 pm

Stitch wrote:
ewt340 wrote:
It's not like B747-8i is as efficient as B787-9 or A350-900.


True, but it is still efficient thanks to having "current generation" engines that can share PiPs with the GEnx on the 787 family (which will likely see more PiPs). So I could see LH operating it for an extended period time for high-traffic markets in a three-class Business / Premium Economy / Economy configuration as it will be able to hold more than the 777-9 in that config.


I thought 747-8 GenX has one less LPC stage, fan diameter also different. So not like 767 to 744 engine swap
 
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Re: LH orders 20 B789 and 20 additional A350; Will sell 6 A380s back to Airbus

Sun Mar 17, 2019 6:59 pm

LDRA wrote:
Stitch wrote:
ewt340 wrote:
It's not like B747-8i is as efficient as B787-9 or A350-900.


True, but it is still efficient thanks to having "current generation" engines that can share PiPs with the GEnx on the 787 family (which will likely see more PiPs). So I could see LH operating it for an extended period time for high-traffic markets in a three-class Business / Premium Economy / Economy configuration as it will be able to hold more than the 777-9 in that config.


I thought 747-8 GenX has one less LPC stage, fan diameter also different. So not like 767 to 744 engine swap

It is a different optimization, an oversized core, but still a modern (for that era, not today) pressure ratio.

Lightsaber
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Stitch
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Re: LH orders 20 B789 and 20 additional A350; Will sell 6 A380s back to Airbus

Sun Mar 17, 2019 7:02 pm

LDRA wrote:
I thought 747-8 GenX has one less LPC stage, fan diameter also different. So not like 767 to 744 engine swap


There will still be components shared between the engines. The first PiP for the 787 engine incorporated upgrades introduced on the baseline 747 engine and the first PiP for the 747 engine incorporated upgrades from the second PiP for the 787 engine.
 
EChid
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Re: LH orders 20 B789 and 20 additional A350; Will sell 6 A380s back to Airbus

Sun Mar 17, 2019 7:08 pm

ewt340 wrote:
EChid wrote:
ewt340 wrote:

The Difference between A380 and A340 is the fact that they could fill A340 with enough passengers to turn profit. Not soo much on A380 which is probably the size of 2 A340-300.

Also, you do realize that they are selling back 6 of their A380 to Airbus right?

I'm fully aware of that, yes, which is why I allowed for the fact they may choose to get rid of the fleet type, exceptionally. Which still provides zero explanation for why it's "pretty clear" that the airline should bin its then 12-year-old 748s in the mid-2020s.


inefficiency, too much capacity, and the fact that they order B777-9 instead of ordering more B747-8i.
Also, Lufthansa Cargo doesn't operate B747-8F, so the incentive to keep B747-8i would be less viable. Unlike other Airlines like Korean Air who uses B747-400F and B747-8F. There is less reason to keep em.

It's not like B747-8i is as efficient as B787-9 or A350-900.

You're suggesting guidelines that LH hasn't themselves followed in the past. They could have a fleet currently of efficient and modern 77W twins right now, which were available when they ordered those 748is and 388s. They didn't take them. There is more to fleet management than just having the most efficient aircraft type in play. Obviously the 789 and 359 are more efficient - they are smaller aircraft with less capacity. But they are tasked with roles on different routes than LH's VLAs currently serve. If LH cared purely about efficiency, the 340s would have left the fleet ages ago and the 346s would never have been ordered. While LH is clearly wanting to control capacity, they aren't ditching the concept of VLAs entirely, which is what the early retirement of the 748is seems to be built on.
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JayinKitsap
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Re: LH orders 20 B789 and 20 additional A350; Will sell 6 A380s back to Airbus

Sun Mar 17, 2019 7:53 pm

This order covers part of its fleet simplification. LH seems to order new planes in batches of 15-20 planes. It then allows them to adapt their operations, shedding the model or models that it is time to replace, while keeping others that still fit the requirements for the routes flown. Yes the 340's, 767's, and MD-11's are soon to be gone. Other models may linger for a while. In say 4 to 5 years LH will be ordering again with the revised fleet optimization based on real performance. LH, like DL, does not follow the hype and herd much, instead uses good accounting and engineering judgement.
 
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SEPilot
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Re: LH orders 20 B789 and 20 additional A350; Will sell 6 A380s back to Airbus

Sun Mar 17, 2019 8:06 pm

EChid wrote:
ewt340 wrote:
EChid wrote:
I'm fully aware of that, yes, which is why I allowed for the fact they may choose to get rid of the fleet type, exceptionally. Which still provides zero explanation for why it's "pretty clear" that the airline should bin its then 12-year-old 748s in the mid-2020s.


inefficiency, too much capacity, and the fact that they order B777-9 instead of ordering more B747-8i.
Also, Lufthansa Cargo doesn't operate B747-8F, so the incentive to keep B747-8i would be less viable. Unlike other Airlines like Korean Air who uses B747-400F and B747-8F. There is less reason to keep em.

It's not like B747-8i is as efficient as B787-9 or A350-900.

You're suggesting guidelines that LH hasn't themselves followed in the past. They could have a fleet currently of efficient and modern 77W twins right now, which were available when they ordered those 748is and 388s. They didn't take them. There is more to fleet management than just having the most efficient aircraft type in play. Obviously the 789 and 359 are more efficient - they are smaller aircraft with less capacity. But they are tasked with roles on different routes than LH's VLAs currently serve. If LH cared purely about efficiency, the 340s would have left the fleet ages ago and the 346s would never have been ordered. While LH is clearly wanting to control capacity, they aren't ditching the concept of VLAs entirely, which is what the early retirement of the 748is seems to be built on.

When LH originally ordered the A346 the 77W was not flying yet, and nobody, including Boeing, knew how good it was going to be. But LH was one of the few airlines that ordered more A346s after the 77W proved itself.
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mxaxai
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Re: LH orders 20 B789 and 20 additional A350; Will sell 6 A380s back to Airbus

Sun Mar 17, 2019 8:31 pm

SEPilot wrote:
EChid wrote:
ewt340 wrote:

inefficiency, too much capacity, and the fact that they order B777-9 instead of ordering more B747-8i.
Also, Lufthansa Cargo doesn't operate B747-8F, so the incentive to keep B747-8i would be less viable. Unlike other Airlines like Korean Air who uses B747-400F and B747-8F. There is less reason to keep em.

It's not like B747-8i is as efficient as B787-9 or A350-900.

You're suggesting guidelines that LH hasn't themselves followed in the past. They could have a fleet currently of efficient and modern 77W twins right now, which were available when they ordered those 748is and 388s. They didn't take them. There is more to fleet management than just having the most efficient aircraft type in play. Obviously the 789 and 359 are more efficient - they are smaller aircraft with less capacity. But they are tasked with roles on different routes than LH's VLAs currently serve. If LH cared purely about efficiency, the 340s would have left the fleet ages ago and the 346s would never have been ordered. While LH is clearly wanting to control capacity, they aren't ditching the concept of VLAs entirely, which is what the early retirement of the 748is seems to be built on.

When LH originally ordered the A346 the 77W was not flying yet, and nobody, including Boeing, knew how good it was going to be. But LH was one of the few airlines that ordered more A346s after the 77W proved itself.

And while they did choose the 77W for Swiss, they didn't use that opportunity to phase out the A346 with LH. Neither did they order something to replace OS' ancient 767, which have to be the least efficient aircraft in the fleet today.
Further, in 2011 LH ordered an additional 2 A380 only to cancel 3 in 2013. They had operational data starting in 2010. Their latest A330 orders have been continuous but small. They've been shifting Airbus longhaul models back and forth between MUC and FRA. They cancelled one 748 but now they want to keep the fleet. They commented that the "787 is too small" and that they "ordered too many 779" and look at where we are now.

I think it's fair to say that they keep reevaluating their fleet instead of following some master plan.
 
Arion640
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Re: LH orders 20 B789 and 20 additional A350; Will sell 6 A380s back to Airbus

Sun Mar 17, 2019 8:39 pm

2175301 wrote:
Stitch wrote:
Strato2 wrote:
Two words: predatory pricing.


Or Airbus is just overcharging.


No - simple competition. All indications are that the Boeing 787 is just more cost competitive (cheaper) to build at this point, and thus can be sold at a lower price than the A330 while maintaining a decent profit markup for Boeing.

Airbus likely has a similar but smaller advantage for the A320 family over the Boeing 737 family - which is why it outsells the 737.

Have a great day,


It’s also worth noting the 200-300 A330neos that have been sold are 200-300 787’s that aren’t being built.
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Stitch
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Re: LH orders 20 B789 and 20 additional A350; Will sell 6 A380s back to Airbus

Sun Mar 17, 2019 8:58 pm

Arion640 wrote:
It’s also worth noting the 200-300 A330neos that have been sold are 200-300 787’s that aren’t being built.


At least half of those (Air Asia X, Delta, TAP) are A350s that aren't being built. And in the case of Emirates, they're both 787s and A350s not being built.
Last edited by Stitch on Sun Mar 17, 2019 9:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
Bricktop
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Re: LH orders 20 B789 and 20 additional A350; Will sell 6 A380s back to Airbus

Sun Mar 17, 2019 9:00 pm

Stitch wrote:
Arion640 wrote:
It’s also worth noting the 200-300 A330neos that have been sold are 200-300 787’s that aren’t being built.


At least 100 of them (Air Asia X and Delta) are A350s that aren't being built.

Lots of unplaced lessor orders too.
 
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Slash787
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Re: LH orders 20 B789 and 20 additional A350; Will sell 6 A380s back to Airbus

Sun Mar 17, 2019 9:25 pm

They should have ordered A35K to replace the A346
 
Arion640
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Re: LH orders 20 B789 and 20 additional A350; Will sell 6 A380s back to Airbus

Sun Mar 17, 2019 9:35 pm

Stitch wrote:
Arion640 wrote:
It’s also worth noting the 200-300 A330neos that have been sold are 200-300 787’s that aren’t being built.


At least half of those (Air Asia X, Delta, TAP) are A350s that aren't being built. And in the case of Emirates, they're both 787s and A350s not being built.


Yep because the A350 is clearly too much plane for whatever those airlines had planned. But it still stops Boeing slipping a -8 or -9 787 order in.
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ewt340
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Re: LH orders 20 B789 and 20 additional A350; Will sell 6 A380s back to Airbus

Sun Mar 17, 2019 9:45 pm

mxaxai wrote:
SEPilot wrote:
EChid wrote:
You're suggesting guidelines that LH hasn't themselves followed in the past. They could have a fleet currently of efficient and modern 77W twins right now, which were available when they ordered those 748is and 388s. They didn't take them. There is more to fleet management than just having the most efficient aircraft type in play. Obviously the 789 and 359 are more efficient - they are smaller aircraft with less capacity. But they are tasked with roles on different routes than LH's VLAs currently serve. If LH cared purely about efficiency, the 340s would have left the fleet ages ago and the 346s would never have been ordered. While LH is clearly wanting to control capacity, they aren't ditching the concept of VLAs entirely, which is what the early retirement of the 748is seems to be built on.

When LH originally ordered the A346 the 77W was not flying yet, and nobody, including Boeing, knew how good it was going to be. But LH was one of the few airlines that ordered more A346s after the 77W proved itself.

And while they did choose the 77W for Swiss, they didn't use that opportunity to phase out the A346 with LH. Neither did they order something to replace OS' ancient 767, which have to be the least efficient aircraft in the fleet today.
Further, in 2011 LH ordered an additional 2 A380 only to cancel 3 in 2013. They had operational data starting in 2010. Their latest A330 orders have been continuous but small. They've been shifting Airbus longhaul models back and forth between MUC and FRA. They cancelled one 748 but now they want to keep the fleet. They commented that the "787 is too small" and that they "ordered too many 779" and look at where we are now.

I think it's fair to say that they keep reevaluating their fleet instead of following some master plan.


I think the situation change now when A380 got canceled and when they ordered B747-8i, the market for VLA is a bit different. The thing we need to notice is the fact that in trunk routes. LH still use the combinations of VLA and smaller wide-body. In the future, they could swapped the smaller widebody for B777-9 instead to increase the capacity instead of putting B747-8i on that route.

We also doesn't know about their future strategy, for all we know they might start slimming down on capacity to focus on increase profits and efficiency.
 
vfw614
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Re: LH orders 20 B789 and 20 additional A350; Will sell 6 A380s back to Airbus

Sun Mar 17, 2019 9:49 pm

Arion640 wrote:
Stitch wrote:
Arion640 wrote:
It’s also worth noting the 200-300 A330neos that have been sold are 200-300 787’s that aren’t being built.


At least half of those (Air Asia X, Delta, TAP) are A350s that aren't being built. And in the case of Emirates, they're both 787s and A350s not being built.


Yep because the A350 is clearly too much plane for whatever those airlines had planned. But it still stops Boeing slipping a -8 or -9 787 order in.


Why? It has been argued in this thread that the 787-9 is not only more capable, but also cheaper than the A330-900
 
Arion640
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Re: LH orders 20 B789 and 20 additional A350; Will sell 6 A380s back to Airbus

Sun Mar 17, 2019 10:43 pm

vfw614 wrote:
Arion640 wrote:
Stitch wrote:

At least half of those (Air Asia X, Delta, TAP) are A350s that aren't being built. And in the case of Emirates, they're both 787s and A350s not being built.


Yep because the A350 is clearly too much plane for whatever those airlines had planned. But it still stops Boeing slipping a -8 or -9 787 order in.


Why? It has been argued in this thread that the 787-9 is not only more capable, but also cheaper than the A330-900


Like I said, an A330neo order is therefore one the 787 isn’t having. This stops Boeing having that little bit of profit x200 that they can put into other projects.
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Stitch
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Re: LH orders 20 B789 and 20 additional A350; Will sell 6 A380s back to Airbus

Sun Mar 17, 2019 10:52 pm

Arion640 wrote:
Like I said, an A330neo order is therefore one the 787 isn’t having. This stops Boeing having that little bit of profit x200 that they can put into other projects.


If the A330-900 did not exist, I believe a large number of those orders would have been (lower gross weight) A350-900s so Boeing never would have been in the running for them, anyway.
 
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Revelation
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Re: LH orders 20 B789 and 20 additional A350; Will sell 6 A380s back to Airbus

Mon Mar 18, 2019 12:24 am

Arion640 wrote:
Stitch wrote:
Arion640 wrote:
It’s also worth noting the 200-300 A330neos that have been sold are 200-300 787’s that aren’t being built.


At least half of those (Air Asia X, Delta, TAP) are A350s that aren't being built. And in the case of Emirates, they're both 787s and A350s not being built.


Yep because the A350 is clearly too much plane for whatever those airlines had planned. But it still stops Boeing slipping a -8 or -9 787 order in.

Strange we talk about A330neo stopping Boeing from getting 787 orders in a thread about Boeing getting 787 orders from a blue chip A330 operator.
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ElroyJetson
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Re: LH orders 20 B789 and 20 additional A350; Will sell 6 A380s back to Airbus

Mon Mar 18, 2019 12:31 am

vfw614 wrote:
SEPilot wrote:
vfw614 wrote:
They can probably bring it down to three aircraft families in a couple of years: A350, 777 and 787. Although there may be a business case to add the A330-900.

And what would that business case be? What does the A339 do better than the 789? Please inform me; I am not aware of any type of route where it would have an edge.


Lower capital costs. It's cheaper than the 787-9. With a fleet of 170+ long-haul planes, you can just as well have 4 instead of 3 sub-fleets.

Based on your argument, nobody should be buying A330-900 - but there are almost 300 orders booked. If you don't need all what the 787-9 offers, why waste the additional acquisition costs?



There is zero evidence to support your statement that the A339 has lower capital costs than the 789. In fact, Leeham reported in the HA deal Boeing sold the 789 for 115 million per plane and Airbus publicly admitted they could not match Boeing on price.

Any evidence you have that contradicts Leeham would be appreciated.
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MrHMSH
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Re: LH orders 20 B789 and 20 additional A350; Will sell 6 A380s back to Airbus

Mon Mar 18, 2019 4:20 am

ElroyJetson wrote:
vfw614 wrote:
SEPilot wrote:
And what would that business case be? What does the A339 do better than the 789? Please inform me; I am not aware of any type of route where it would have an edge.


Lower capital costs. It's cheaper than the 787-9. With a fleet of 170+ long-haul planes, you can just as well have 4 instead of 3 sub-fleets.

Based on your argument, nobody should be buying A330-900 - but there are almost 300 orders booked. If you don't need all what the 787-9 offers, why waste the additional acquisition costs?



There is zero evidence to support your statement that the A339 has lower capital costs than the 789. In fact, Leeham reported in the HA deal Boeing sold the 789 for 115 million per plane and Airbus publicly admitted they could not match Boeing on price.

Any evidence you have that contradicts Leeham would be appreciated.


Unless you have an accurate estimate of production costs, you can't really claim much either. Airbus didn't match the price for the HA deal, but how much Boeing offered the 789 for and how much it costs to produce are not the same.

How much does each cost to produce roughly?
 
majano
Posts: 147
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Re: LH orders 20 B789 and 20 additional A350; Will sell 6 A380s back to Airbus

Mon Mar 18, 2019 5:54 am

Revelation wrote:
Arion640 wrote:
Stitch wrote:

At least half of those (Air Asia X, Delta, TAP) are A350s that aren't being built. And in the case of Emirates, they're both 787s and A350s not being built.


Yep because the A350 is clearly too much plane for whatever those airlines had planned. But it still stops Boeing slipping a -8 or -9 787 order in.

Strange we talk about A330neo stopping Boeing from getting 787 orders in a thread about Boeing getting 787 orders from a blue chip A330 operator.

And a blue chip 777 and 767 operator, so what is your point?
 
HaulSudson
Posts: 70
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Re: LH orders 20 B789 and 20 additional A350; Will sell 6 A380s back to Airbus

Mon Mar 18, 2019 6:11 am

This order is all RR powered, a nice win for them.
 
HaulSudson
Posts: 70
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Re: LH orders 20 B789 and 20 additional A350; Will sell 6 A380s back to Airbus

Mon Mar 18, 2019 6:15 am

With the EUR at 1.13 and GBP cheap too, Airbus currently ought to be pretty competitive on price for anything produced in Europe.
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