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Re: Spirit Announces SMF

Posted: Fri Mar 15, 2019 8:15 am
by flyboy7974
tphuang wrote:
crownvic wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Unlike BUR, this is actually a really profitable route for WN. I don't see how WN can keep ignoring NK building a hub at LAS. There has to be some retaliation coming.


Like others are saying, WN fares out of LAS are too high and they have been taking advantage of LAS pax for too long now. They deserve a good kick in their butt. DL had the best shot of building up LAS, but they chose not to for several reasons. AS, in my opinion, was "sleeping at the wheel" and let an opportunity slip by. NK saw an opportunity in LAS and is now going after it. I don't think at this stage, NK really fears anyone and is willing to take on even the giants at WN, AA, DL and UA, regardless of the city pairs.


Let's get one thing out of the way. There is no chance of DL or any other legacies building up in LAS. The yields are too low and point of sale is always on the side.

The only one with the cost structure to really challenge this type of mostly leisure destinations dominated by WN is NK. That's why you see them building up in MSY/MCO also.

Again, this depends on which LAS route you are referring to.
average fares from Q1 to Q3 + yields for WN. Remember, WN fares have to be higher due to the free luggage and no change fees
BUR $154 $108
LAX $104 $83
SNA $163 $133
ONT $154 $120
LGB $73 $54
SMF $184 $139

I would agree that SMF is a little high, but the LA basin airport (with the exception of SNA) are all below average in margin for the system. WN is not milking BUR and ONT. That's not matched in reality. If you want to complain by comparing ONT/BUR to LAX, I can tell you that LAS-LAX is one of the biggest money losers in WN system. Airlines who are willing to loose money to support their LAX hub aren't willing to do it the secondary airports.


Reviewing all your latest posts, I’m simply guessing we have another SoCal hater. Reviewing last T100 route and yield data, most WN BUR routes are in their top 100, not the highest, but all top 100. RASM are higher than most routes nationwide so contrary to your post regarding BUR being money losing, research! WN opened the station on 4/16/90 with flights to LAS/OAK, if markets since were performing as you claim, wouldn’t WN discontinue?

And to be honest, I have yet to pull data on the recently launched HOU/MDW flights, but I am guessing if a money loser, SWA would have already decided.

And, ummmmmm, last thought, hasn’t Delta already built up LAS in last years? Mmmmmmm, once again, please research! No, but they have BOS/DTW/JFK/ATL/MSP/SLC/SEA/SJC/LAX/SAN/SNA plus .........

Re: Spirit Announces SMF

Posted: Fri Mar 15, 2019 10:56 am
by continental004
stlgph wrote:
Ah hell, give it another year or two and Spirit will be looking at Hawaii.


they already fly to Latin America so it's only a matter of time...

Re: Spirit Announces SMF

Posted: Fri Mar 15, 2019 12:50 pm
by tphuang
flyboy7974 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
crownvic wrote:

Like others are saying, WN fares out of LAS are too high and they have been taking advantage of LAS pax for too long now. They deserve a good kick in their butt. DL had the best shot of building up LAS, but they chose not to for several reasons. AS, in my opinion, was "sleeping at the wheel" and let an opportunity slip by. NK saw an opportunity in LAS and is now going after it. I don't think at this stage, NK really fears anyone and is willing to take on even the giants at WN, AA, DL and UA, regardless of the city pairs.


Let's get one thing out of the way. There is no chance of DL or any other legacies building up in LAS. The yields are too low and point of sale is always on the side.

The only one with the cost structure to really challenge this type of mostly leisure destinations dominated by WN is NK. That's why you see them building up in MSY/MCO also.

Again, this depends on which LAS route you are referring to.
average fares from Q1 to Q3 + yields for WN. Remember, WN fares have to be higher due to the free luggage and no change fees
BUR $154 $108
LAX $104 $83
SNA $163 $133
ONT $154 $120
LGB $73 $54
SMF $184 $139

I would agree that SMF is a little high, but the LA basin airport (with the exception of SNA) are all below average in margin for the system. WN is not milking BUR and ONT. That's not matched in reality. If you want to complain by comparing ONT/BUR to LAX, I can tell you that LAS-LAX is one of the biggest money losers in WN system. Airlines who are willing to loose money to support their LAX hub aren't willing to do it the secondary airports.


Reviewing all your latest posts, I’m simply guessing we have another SoCal hater. Reviewing last T100 route and yield data, most WN BUR routes are in their top 100, not the highest, but all top 100. RASM are higher than most routes nationwide so contrary to your post regarding BUR being money losing, research! WN opened the station on 4/16/90 with flights to LAS/OAK, if markets since were performing as you claim, wouldn’t WN discontinue?

And to be honest, I have yet to pull data on the recently launched HOU/MDW flights, but I am guessing if a money loser, SWA would have already decided.

And, ummmmmm, last thought, hasn’t Delta already built up LAS in last years? Mmmmmmm, once again, please research! No, but they have BOS/DTW/JFK/ATL/MSP/SLC/SEA/SJC/LAX/SAN/SNA plus .........


Why do you need to review my posts? Sounds kind of fishy.

I've done yield analysis on every route in WN system for Q1 to Q3 in 2018, so I think I have a pretty good idea of which routes are profitable, which routes are above system average and below average. Since RASM decrease as stage length increase, using just straight RASM comparison is never a good idea.

for example, BUR-PDX in Q1 to Q3 had average fare of $133 with 80% LF which is about $107 in yield if discounting connection traffic. The average number of passenger per flight is 147 and distance is 817 miles.

BWI-LAX had average fare of $240 with 92% LF, which is about $220 in yield. The average number of passengers per flight is 167 and distance is 2329.

So if do a straight RASM comparison, BUR-PDX would be higher but BWI-LAX is also operated generally on lower CASM aircraft and also you have to factor in the much longer stage length which reduces both CASM and RASM. Since there is always a base cost attached to each flight.

Here is every route out of BUR from Q1 to Q3 of 2018

BUR-LAS 223 miles 144/flight $154 avg fare 70% LF $108 yield -> slightly above system average in margin -> profitable
BUR-PHX 369 miles 144/flight $152 avg fare 77% LF $118 yield -> slightly above system average in margin -> profitable
BUR-DEN 850 miles 148/flight $161 avg fare 88% LF $142 yield -> slightly below system average in margin -> profitable
BUR-DAL 1243 miles 145/flight $194 avg fare 82.5% LF $160 yield -> below system average in margin -> profitable
BUR-SMF 358 miles 144/flight $135 avg fare 74% LF $100 yield -> below system average in margin -> probably not profitable
BUR-PDX 817 miles 147/flight $133 avg fare 80% LF $107 yield -> below system average in margin -> not profitable
BUR-OAK 325 miles 144/flight $144 avg fare 72% LF $96 yield -> below system average in margin -> not profitable
BUR-SLC 574 miles 144/flight $112 avg fare 73% LF $82 yield -> below system average in margin -> not profitable
BUR-SFO 326 miles 144/flight $115 avg fare 71% LF $81 yield -> below system average in margin -> not profitable
BUR-SJC 296 miles 143/flight $103 avg fare 66% LF $68 yield -> below system average in margin -> not profitable

just as a point of reference for some other routes in system for the 200 to 400 miles range that most of these flights are in.

Really profitable ones would be
DAL-HOU 239 miles 147/flight $196 avg fare 77% LF $150 yield
MDW-STL 251 miles 149/flight $190 avg fare 76% LF $145 yield

really unprofitable ones would be
FLL-JAX 319 miles 145/flight $95 avg fare 56%LF $54 yield
CLE-MKE 328 miles 148/flight $96 avg fare 58% LF $55 yield

This shows what the high and low in the yield for the flights that's around 300 miles in range in WN system.

Re: Spirit Announces SMF

Posted: Fri Mar 15, 2019 3:30 pm
by AWACSooner
Everyone's talking about NK taking on WN at LAS and driving fares down...have folks forgot about G4's operations there?

Re: Spirit Announces SMF

Posted: Fri Mar 15, 2019 3:35 pm
by MIflyer12
One flight to OAK today, a few flights to Mesa. Nothing else to major metros. That sounds like a pretty forgettable schedule, actually.