It means a lot of routing & planning headache for a lot of people, not just those at AC Ops.
It could change how they plan for the future as well.

continental004 wrote:

So what's the fate of the upcoming YUL-BOD at this point?

That route doesn't start for another couple of months. No point on speculating that far ahead considering nobody really knows what's going on with the aircraft yet.

Not Air Canada…but WestJet TATL Max8s out of Halifax.

WestJet's plans were for 4 daily flights this summer out of Halifax to Paris, Gatwick, Dublin and Glasgow. Believe they would have all been on Max8s. Possibly a 737-7 could handle DUB also LGW and GLA

Out of curiosity, why did AC go for the 737MAX when they could've bought the A320neo? There's always B offering a better deal from A, but what other factors made them go for it?

Philippine747 wrote:

Out of curiosity, why did AC go for the 737MAX when they could've bought the A320neo? There's always B offering a better deal from A, but what other factors made them go for it?

My thoughts are it was simply money, two ways.
1. No doubt B undercut A on price per unit, and I'm assuming by a decent amount.
2. The MAX8 can count more pax than the 320neo so AC saw

codyul wrote:

Philippine747 wrote:

Out of curiosity, why did AC go for the 737MAX when they could've bought the A320neo? There's always B offering a better deal from A, but what other factors made them go for it?

My thoughts are it was simply money, two ways.
1. No doubt B undercut A on price per unit, and I'm assuming by a decent amount.
2. The MAX8 can count more pax than the 320neo so AC saw

Regarding point 2, I can see why. Their high density 77Ws are one of the most packed longhaul configs out there!

On the bright side, the grounding of the Max fleet in Canada is going to brilliantly illustrate the overcapacity issue to even the most obtuse observers.

Having 777’s and 787’s available, with crews, to substitute in with less than 24 hours notice is indicative of the issue.

At a time of restricted capacity and high demand, yields are likely going to see a nice bump. Analysts at both airlines, and especially AC who see massive seasonal capacity swings will, perversely, now see what happens when excess capacity is taken out of the system.

Suddenly, profitability skyrockets to US industry levels.

Eureka!

jimbo737 wrote:

On the bright side, the grounding of the Max fleet in Canada is going to brilliantly illustrate the overcapacity issue to even the most obtuse observers.

Having 777’s and 787’s available, with crews, to substitute in with less than 24 hours notice is indicative of the issue.

At a time of restricted capacity and high demand, yields are likely going to see a nice bump. Analysts at both airlines, and especially AC who see massive seasonal capacity swings will, perversely, now see what happens when excess capacity is taken out of the system.

Suddenly, profitability skyrockets to US industry levels.

Eureka!

While I may be one of the few on here that occasionally agrees with you, in this case, I think in a very short time we will see how you are wrong.

They don't have the slack, any spare crews are going to come as a reduction from the reserve pool, it's not like they have tons of free airplanes, so far, I've seen at best 3 widebodies subbed in, out of a fleet of 75...

I see the logic in your statement, yield will go through the roof on some routes no doubt, but at the huge cost of lost revenues, ultimately likely leading to losses all in, or a drastic reduction in profits at a time where demand is growing, and yield is increasing (at least for AC, let's not get into WS' books right now).

Furthermore, having 777s and 787s available to sub with crews at less than 24 hours notice is kind of important for managing irrops, maintenance issues, diversions and unexpected circumstances requiring emergency capacity, such as you know, a worldwide grounding of a fleet. Airlines need contingency.

This is coming from someone who does see where you are coming from too, I get it, and I see the merit in your statements, but I think you have blown it way out of proportion.

ACCS300 wrote:

Do we know if AC is seeking any compensation from Boeing at this point? I know Norwegian is presently pursuing it. IMO the grounding should now financially burden the airlines affected.

I think every current MAX operator will eventually

alan3 wrote:

IWMBH wrote:

According to planespotter.net no AC A320-family aircraft are stored, so this means their NB fleet has just shrunk with 25%. Thats huge...

I wonder, would they need to consider any temporary dry or wet leases to get additional aircraft into service? Or make do with consolidating flights and maybe adding Rouge aircraft?

The problem is every airline out there is waiting for a timeline guess? If it looks long, there will be a rush and no one wants to be stuck with extra capacity if they find a solution/answer quickly. with the NCAA tournament starting soon in the USA, charter companies are pretty well booked for a while too.

jimbo737 wrote:

On the bright side, the grounding of the Max fleet in Canada is going to brilliantly illustrate the overcapacity issue to even the most obtuse observers.

Having 777’s and 787’s available, with crews, to substitute in with less than 24 hours notice is indicative of the issue.

At a time of restricted capacity and high demand, yields are likely going to see a nice bump. Analysts at both airlines, and especially AC who see massive seasonal capacity swings will, perversely, now see what happens when excess capacity is taken out of the system.

Suddenly, profitability skyrockets to US industry levels.

Eureka!

If there's any excess capacity (which the record LFs indicate there isn't), how about starting with Swoop?

Maybe WestJet can call in Flair for help.

Dominion301 wrote:

If there's any excess capacity (which the record LFs indicate there isn't), how about starting with Swoop?

Maybe WestJet can call in Flair for help.

Given the Flair-Westjet history, I wouldn't be unamused if Flair decided to help out AC, or if they deliberately added directly competing flights against WS's MAX routes.

nname wrote:

YVR-HNL will consolidate into one flight and operated by 77W
YVR-OGG will consolidate into one flight and operated by 789
YVR-CUN/PVR/SJD/ZIH will operated by 321
YVR-KOA looks like it will be cancelled

Wat wat wat, you mean the earth will continue to revolve around its axis if airlines consolidate flights instead of offering hourly service between Samarkand and TImbuktu? Who woulda thunk it. Maybe the environment is the big winner here.

AC seems to be sending all their max 8s to YQG and YWG... All gone from YYZ... Why Windsor for AC they don't have any reason to be sending them there?

Sent from my ONEPLUS A5000 using Tapatalk

Maybe they are sending the aircraft there for storage? Surely the parking fees in the larger airports would be higher?

The AAR hangar at YQG has been doing a lot of Max 8 maintenance for AC the past few months so maybe the idea is that the eventual fix will be implemented there.

Sunwing has also sent its MAX aircraft to Windsor: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/windsor/ ... -1.5055707

Wifi installation at AAR Windsor

There just isn't that much space at YQG... Between Sunwing and AC... I count 14 7M8s at least? AAR has a tiny apron around its facility. Are they going to use part of runway 12/30 for storage?

Sent from my ONEPLUS A5000 using Tapatalk

northstardc4m wrote:

There just isn't that much space at YQG... Between Sunwing and AC... I count 14 7M8s at least? AAR has a tiny apron around its facility. Are they going to use part of runway 12/30 for storage?

Sent from my ONEPLUS A5000 using Tapatalk

They can probably use the short ex-tertiary general aviation runway that was converted into a taxiway about a decade ago.

YQG has quite a bit of space.

https://satellites.pro/Canada_map#42.27 ... .945049,14

Dominion301 wrote:

northstardc4m wrote:

There just isn't that much space at YQG... Between Sunwing and AC... I count 14 7M8s at least? AAR has a tiny apron around its facility. Are they going to use part of runway 12/30 for storage?

Sent from my ONEPLUS A5000 using Tapatalk

They can probably use the short ex-tertiary general aviation runway that was converted into a taxiway about a decade ago.

Don't they need that for taxi access to 7/25 though?

Sent from my ONEPLUS A5000 using Tapatalk

northstardc4m wrote:

Dominion301 wrote:

northstardc4m wrote:

There just isn't that much space at YQG... Between Sunwing and AC... I count 14 7M8s at least? AAR has a tiny apron around its facility. Are they going to use part of runway 12/30 for storage?

Sent from my ONEPLUS A5000 using Tapatalk

They can probably use the short ex-tertiary general aviation runway that was converted into a taxiway about a decade ago.

Don't they need that for taxi access to 7/25 though?

Sent from my ONEPLUS A5000 using Tapatalk

Runway 12 provides direct access to runway 7 and it wouldn’t be hard to backtrack to 25 when needed as shown in the satellite image link: https://satellites.pro/Canada_map#42.27 ... .945049,14

JetTechYYZ wrote:

Wifi installation at AAR Windsor

Bit of a cheeky move if they use this downtime to complete wifi installations across the fleet. Makes a lot of sense.

EChid wrote:

JetTechYYZ wrote:

Wifi installation at AAR Windsor

Bit of a cheeky move if they use this downtime to complete wifi installations across the fleet. Makes a lot of sense.

Why not take advantage of the down time? Westjet is doing the same with aircraft ferried to Kelowna to have the new seating configuration installed.

Transat must have some spare capacity this time of year, especially on the A330s. I saw several of them parked at their hangar in YUL yesterday. They would be an ideal candidate to lease some planes to AC or WS, if the need arises.

EChid wrote:

IWMBH wrote:

According to planespotter.net no AC A320-family aircraft are stored, so this means their NB fleet has just shrunk with 25%. Thats huge...

I believe their NB fleet has shrunk 25% if you don't include Rouge. AC can Rouge a route if necessary to fill in the holes. If you include Rouge and the E190s/175s it's less than 10% of their fleet.

As for the TATL routes, they'll probably just fly people through YUL or YOW. In the off-season, there should be enough widebody slack in the fleet to upgauge if necessary, and they are already operating an A330 between Montreal and Halifax for cargo purposes.

If including Rouge but not the Express fleet, the 737 represents just under 17% of the fleet. Excluding Rouge and the Express fleet, it's just under 21%...... according to the fleet numbers AC is publishing.

Looking at AC’s online schedule for next week, it seems like YUL is taking the biggest hit (LAX and SFO temporarily suspended) followed by YVR, YYC, YHZ and YYT. YOW, YWG and YEG are relatively unchanged...no doubt due to few MAX movements scheduled into those stations. In fact, YOW even appears to be up slightly. YOW’s connection ratio will likely spike from the usual 5-7% for the time being.

Dominion301 wrote:

Looking at AC’s online schedule for next week, it seems like YUL is taking the biggest hit, followed by YVR, YYC, YHZ and YYT. YOW, YWG and YEG are relatively unchanged...no doubt due to few MAX movements scheduled into those stations. In fact, YOW even appears to be up slightly. YOW’s connection ratio will likely spike from the usual 5-7% for the time being.

There will be lots of fun changes to watch over the next few days. Interestingly I was looking at AC's YVR-YYC route on Sunday. Cumulatively the route is oversold by a significant number of seats because of the downguage to Q400s on two of the flights, however you can still purchase J seats if you want to fly that day! I don't know how AC thinks that's ethical. Perhaps that's indicative of upgrades to larger aircraft yet to come, but that hasn't been published yet.

AC does not have 737NG. If grounding lasts longer, will AC start converting pilots to other type?

whywhyzee wrote:

It's a disaster right now, looks like they have a few extra 77Ws on YYZ to pick up the slack, some days, all 4 flights look like they will be 77Ws. YYZ-SFO had 2x daily 789s and 2x daily max 8s, the 2 max flights are still awaiting some replacement, 2x 789s isnt nearly enough right now. YYZ-PBI is gone completely, routing through YUL, YYZ-YYC has seen 9 flights a day become 7 with no real equipment change.

YUL-LAX went from 2x max to 1x A333. YUL-SFO went from 2x max 8 to nothing.

If anyone held any remote belief that this would be absolutely disasterous for AC, this should remove that notion entirely. Once the new A333s arrive, it should help a LITTLE bit, they can delay YVR and YUL-DUB to help clear the backlog.

AC is going to be eating massive losses. Looking at up to $10 million/day taking into account lost revenue, paying over 300 pilots to do nothing, parking fees, lost customers and massive network disruptions.

On the positive side, load factor should be good

Dominion301 wrote:

Looking at AC’s online schedule for next week, it seems like YUL is taking the biggest hit (LAX and SFO temporarily suspended) followed by YVR, YYC, YHZ and YYT. YOW, YWG and YEG are relatively unchanged...no doubt due to few MAX movements scheduled into those stations. In fact, YOW even appears to be up slightly. YOW’s connection ratio will likely spike from the usual 5-7% for the time being.

YUL-LAX/SFO are operating on certain days. SFO was 1x daily A320 today, will be a B788 tomorrow and tuesday. LAX seems to be going double daily tomorrow and Tuesday. So not too bad.

YUL-SFO-YUL
https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/ac781
https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/ac780

AC760/761 seems canceled for now.

YUL-LAX-YUL
https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/ac782
https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/ac783
https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/ac797
https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/ac798

Going to be interesting times. I’m hearing it’ll be a couple months. Worst case scenario. 4 months before they’re flying again.

Looks like Air Transat will be operating AC301/302 YUL-YVR-YUL using a A332 starting next week.

Airlinerdude wrote:

Dominion301 wrote:

Looking at AC’s online schedule for next week, it seems like YUL is taking the biggest hit, followed by YVR, YYC, YHZ and YYT. YOW, YWG and YEG are relatively unchanged...no doubt due to few MAX movements scheduled into those stations. In fact, YOW even appears to be up slightly. YOW’s connection ratio will likely spike from the usual 5-7% for the time being.

There will be lots of fun changes to watch over the next few days. Interestingly I was looking at AC's YVR-YYC route on Sunday. Cumulatively the route is oversold by a significant number of seats because of the downguage to Q400s on two of the flights, however you can still purchase J seats if you want to fly that day! I don't know how AC thinks that's ethical. Perhaps that's indicative of upgrades to larger aircraft yet to come, but that hasn't been published yet.

I am current on YYC-YVR AC215. The plane is maybe 50% empty.

ac7e7 wrote:

Airlinerdude wrote:

There will be lots of fun changes to watch over the next few days. Interestingly I was looking at AC's YVR-YYC route on Sunday. Cumulatively the route is oversold by a significant number of seats because of the downguage to Q400s on two of the flights, however you can still purchase J seats if you want to fly that day! I don't know how AC thinks that's ethical. Perhaps that's indicative of upgrades to larger aircraft yet to come, but that hasn't been published yet.

I am current on YYC-YVR AC215. The plane is maybe 50% empty.

That's correct, it's YVR to YYC that is massively overbooked this afternoon. AC214 leaving at 1415 currently has 36 on standby, but it gets worse as the day goes on!

Salomon wrote:

Looks like Air Transat will be operating AC301/302 YUL-YVR-YUL using a A332 starting next week.

One airlines' misfortune is another airlines' gain. Figured those spare A330s would come in handy.

Just curious what happens to 737 MAX pilots? Will they still be paid while not flying or can they be laid off without pay?

Viscount724 wrote:

Just curious what happens to 737 MAX pilots? Will they still be paid while not flying or can they be laid off without pay?

All pilots are paid a minimum hour threshold each month, whether they fly or not.

AC provides schedule adjustment updates due to the 7M8 grounding. AC now plan on at least no MAX ops to July 1st. Leases on aircraft that were set to expire are extended. WOW A32x fleet entry accelerated. Routes suspended until MAX operations resume:
YYT-LHR
YHZ-LHR
YVR-LIH
YVR-KOA
YYC-PSP

https://aircanada.mediaroom.com/2019-03 ... X-Aircraft

I wonder how WS will respond, especially on YHZ-CDG which is out of NG range unless they plan a fuel stop enroute? Maybe combine GLA & CDG for a while.

Air Canada announced this morning that the Max will remain grounded until at least July 1st. Routes out of YHZ and YYT will be temporarily suspended. All this reported on CBC earlier today.

boeing767300 wrote:

Air Canada announced this morning that the Max will remain grounded until at least July 1st. Routes out of YHZ and YYT will be temporarily suspended. All this reported on CBC earlier today.

Saw it to but do they expect the problem will take will July to fix? I thought that this would be fixed before May.

IWMBH wrote:

boeing767300 wrote:

Air Canada announced this morning that the Max will remain grounded until at least July 1st. Routes out of YHZ and YYT will be temporarily suspended. All this reported on CBC earlier today.

Saw it to but do they expect the problem will take will July to fix? I thought that this would be fixed before May.

Even if a fix is produced by BA in Apr, it still requires approval by the FAA. If if gets approved by the FAA before May, the implementation of the fix on their fleet, which might entail additional training, could take time.

downdata wrote:

IWMBH wrote:

boeing767300 wrote:

Air Canada announced this morning that the Max will remain grounded until at least July 1st. Routes out of YHZ and YYT will be temporarily suspended. All this reported on CBC earlier today.

Saw it to but do they expect the problem will take will July to fix? I thought that this would be fixed before May.

Even if a fix is produced by BA in Apr, it still requires approval by the FAA. If if gets approved by the FAA before May, the implementation of the fix on their fleet, which might entail additional training, could take time.

Understandable. I wonder if AC's management regrets choosing the MAX over the NEO.

IWMBH wrote:

downdata wrote:

IWMBH wrote:

Saw it to but do they expect the problem will take will July to fix? I thought that this would be fixed before May.

Even if a fix is produced by BA in Apr, it still requires approval by the FAA. If if gets approved by the FAA before May, the implementation of the fix on their fleet, which might entail additional training, could take time.

Understandable. I wonder if AC's management regrets choosing the MAX over the NEO.

Canada has already said they won't just accept the FAA response as well - so expect some additional lag there as well...

Realize all the crews will have lost currency by then. Every crew will wind up back in the simulator to undoubtedly go thru the retraining, and of course to get takeoffs and landings done so as to be “current” before hitting the line.

From what I hear the MCAS system was only hooked up to one of the AOA sensors, and that when it was active the trim rate applied was something to the level of twice the regular trim rate. Having both AOA sensors inputting data to the MCAS and reducing the trim rate is apparently what the fix is at this point.

At least this is what I’ve been told. I know zilch about the 737 Max or otherwise.

IWMBH wrote:

downdata wrote:

IWMBH wrote:

Saw it to but do they expect the problem will take will July to fix? I thought that this would be fixed before May.

Even if a fix is produced by BA in Apr, it still requires approval by the FAA. If if gets approved by the FAA before May, the implementation of the fix on their fleet, which might entail additional training, could take time.

Understandable. I wonder if AC's management regrets choosing the MAX over the NEO.

I mean its pretty obvious...

Since all YHZ-LHR (4x weekly now) and YYT-LHR (3x weekly) have been canceled for the time being - and most likely until July - how is AC ensuring that passengers booked on these flights are accomodated on other flights through YUL or YYZ (or perhaps YOW)? I haven't noticed that AC was using larger equipment out of YHZ to YYZ... And when those flights become daily later on in June, will it not pose a challenge is terms of capacity?

I imagine also that AC will delay the start of the YUL-BOD flights, as well as YYZ/YUL-KEF and YYZ-SNN.

Quite the operational nightmare for AC...

boeing767300 wrote:

Air Canada announced this morning that the Max will remain grounded until at least July 1st. Routes out of YHZ and YYT will be temporarily suspended. All this reported on CBC earlier today.

Not quite, the schedule has been adjusted until up to July 1st without the MAX. This doesn’t mean it’s grounded until then, there is not definite time line for the grounding. MAXs could be in the air well before then....

matt wrote:

Since all YHZ-LHR (4x weekly now) and YYT-LHR (3x weekly) have been canceled for the time being - and most likely until July - how is AC ensuring that passengers booked on these flights are accomodated on other flights through YUL or YYZ (or perhaps YOW)? I haven't noticed that AC was using larger equipment out of YHZ to YYZ... And when those flights become daily later on in June, will it not pose a challenge is terms of capacity?

I imagine also that AC will delay the start of the YUL-BOD flights, as well as YYZ/YUL-KEF and YYZ-SNN.

Quite the operational nightmare for AC...

KEF could go back to Rouge like during the inaugural season. BOD and SNN will likely be delayed...unless for SNN they temporarily adjust the DUB 330 to make a pit stop at SNN.

As for YHZ and YYT to LHR, rerouting via YUL, YYZ and YOW is the only option as AC have made it clear they don’t have (or won’t lease in) alternative capacity to operate these routes...Doubt they’d want to give UA any of the traffic via EWR either.

As we've seen, they are using TS for YUL-YVR/CUN (if I'm not mistaken) until the end of April. These are 332 aircraft with 345 seats and no J operating a transcon instead of the regular 292 seat 333. As for CUN, it makes sense to replace a Rouge 76W with these 332s, maybe even an upgrade for customers.