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keesje
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2019 Post Grounding 737 MAX Storage, Production and Modification

Wed Mar 13, 2019 8:18 pm

The 737 MAX has been grounded world wide by various authorities.

Boeing is producing 50 a month. That will continue, but they won't be delivered soon from Renton.

Boeing is working on a satisfactory solution. It probably has a pretty good idea already, pending the crash research going on.

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Photo: https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2019/03/13/world/nations-carriers-ground-boeing-737-max-jetliners-ethiopia-crash/#.XIlmJ-y0u9c

Formally the problem should be clear, a solution engineered, prototyped, tested and certified. And then implemented on hundreds of aircraft, documentation, training updated.

Will it take 2-3 months? Or is a quicker solution possible?
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
FlyingSicilian
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Re: 2019 Post Grounding 737 MAX Storage, Production and Modification

Wed Mar 13, 2019 8:30 pm

If it is software related, one would presume once tested and certified that it would be a fairly quick solution to upload then certify pilots on the changed procedures. If physical changes are needed that might take longer. The WSJ is reporting the government shutdown delayed some re-cert work with the FAA already.
“Without seeing Sicily it is impossible to understand Italy.Sicily is the key of everything.”-Goethe "Journey to Italy"
 
multimark
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Re: 2019 Post Grounding 737 MAX Storage, Production and Modification

Wed Mar 13, 2019 8:32 pm

Well, we know Lion Air is very likely cancelling their order, that should free up some slots for someone who really wants them!
 
FlapsOne
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Re: 2019 Post Grounding 737 MAX Storage, Production and Modification

Wed Mar 13, 2019 8:34 pm

Are they still making the 737NG aircraft or has that line closed?
 
FlyingSicilian
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Re: 2019 Post Grounding 737 MAX Storage, Production and Modification

Wed Mar 13, 2019 8:49 pm

FlapsOne wrote:
FlyingSicilian wrote:
If it is software related, one would presume once tested and certified that it would be a fairly quick solution to upload then certify pilots on the changed procedures. If physical changes are needed that might take longer. The WSJ is reporting the government shutdown delayed some re-cert work with the FAA already.


Yup.. gotta be Trump's fault somehow.


Some might spin it that way; I was not.

I also did not say it was; just posting the breaking news from the WSJ (not exactly a left wing news org BTW).
“Without seeing Sicily it is impossible to understand Italy.Sicily is the key of everything.”-Goethe "Journey to Italy"
 
vfw614
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Re: 2019 Post Grounding 737 MAX Storage, Production and Modification

Wed Mar 13, 2019 8:57 pm

Which airlines were about to accept multiple factory-fresh MAXs? TUIfly Germany comes to mind. Any others?
 
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keesje
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Re: 2019 Post Grounding 737 MAX Storage, Production and Modification

Wed Mar 13, 2019 9:07 pm

vfw614 wrote:
Which airlines were about to accept multiple factory-fresh MAXs? TUIfly Germany comes to mind. Any others?


Boeing 737 is currently producting 52 a month, so many. And the Renton platform will fill up quickly, if they can't be ferried.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
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diverdave
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Re: 2019 Post Grounding 737 MAX Storage, Production and Modification

Wed Mar 13, 2019 9:42 pm

keesje wrote:
Boeing 737 is currently producting 52 a month, so many. And the Renton platform will fill up quickly, if they can't be ferried.


Some of those will be NGs (though the majority will not be) and should be delivered as planned. January's deliveries from Boeing included 6 737-800s and 7 737-900s.
 
metaldirtnskin
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Re: 2019 Post Grounding 737 MAX Storage, Production and Modification

Wed Mar 13, 2019 9:51 pm

Something odd is/was going on with BOE115 (a MAX 9)... it was scheduled to take off from MWH around the time the US grounding went into effect. Then appeared to be shooting approaches (?) into ALW (Walla Walla)... FlightAware shows it en route back to BFI but it is not to be found on FR24.

https://flightaware.com/live/flight/BOE ... /KMWH/KBFI

I guess it would technically be in violation of the FAA order if it took off, but obviously Boeing would need to get some sort of special permission to perform whatever testing they need for any (speculative) change to the aircraft.
 
Kilopond
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Re: 2019 Post Grounding 737 MAX Storage, Production and Modification

Wed Mar 13, 2019 9:54 pm

keesje wrote:
[...]Will it take 2-3 months? Or is a quicker solution possible?


It depends on their approach. I think the most reasonable schedule would consist of many stages. First, get a foolproof solution as soon as possible, no matter how much performance and efficiency have to be sacrified. Two weeks maximum. Then fine-tune the patches step by step. Keep safety foolproof but regain performance and efficiency. That process could last well over a year.
 
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LockheedBBD
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Re: 2019 Post Grounding 737 MAX Storage, Production and Modification

Wed Mar 13, 2019 9:55 pm

multimark wrote:
Well, we know Lion Air is very likely cancelling their order, that should free up some slots for someone who really wants them!


They've been saying that for a while now. Still waiting for them to actually do something.
 
Airlinerdude
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Re: 2019 Post Grounding 737 MAX Storage, Production and Modification

Wed Mar 13, 2019 9:57 pm

keesje wrote:

Boeing 737 is currently producting 52 a month, so many. And the Renton platform will fill up quickly, if they can't be ferried.


Could they not be ferried as 'experimental' aircraft? Evidently the aircraft are flown around for test flying before they're ever certified by the FAA.
 
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Stitch
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Re: 2019 Post Grounding 737 MAX Storage, Production and Modification

Wed Mar 13, 2019 10:01 pm

Provisions will no doubt be made to allow them to ferry them as necessary.
 
IWMBH
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Re: 2019 Post Grounding 737 MAX Storage, Production and Modification

Wed Mar 13, 2019 10:09 pm

I think ferrying is the least of Boeings problems. Better step up the NG-production and slow down the MAX-production, its backlog should be enough for a month.
 
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Stitch
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Re: 2019 Post Grounding 737 MAX Storage, Production and Modification

Wed Mar 13, 2019 10:14 pm

IWMBH wrote:
I think ferrying is the least of Boeings problems. Better step up the NG-production and slow down the MAX-production, its backlog should be enough for a month.


They can only build the models they have the parts for and that should be favoring the MAX.
 
LH707330
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Re: 2019 Post Grounding 737 MAX Storage, Production and Modification

Wed Mar 13, 2019 10:33 pm

Expecting glider NOTAM for taxiway bravo at Renton in 3...2...1....
 
aaexecplat
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Re: 2019 Post Grounding 737 MAX Storage, Production and Modification

Wed Mar 13, 2019 11:01 pm

Realistically, if they wanted to really remediate all the issues, they would need to:

- Add a third AOA sensor to all planes
- Create logic in the FC to make use of all 3 AOA sensors
- Rewrite the MCAS logic
- Make aerodynamic changes to the nacelles to reduce lift
- potentially increase the control surfaces of the horizontal stabilizers

Much less than this, and I would consider it only a patch. And if ET302 is found to be a repeat of JT601, I suspect regulators will require several of these mods before they allow the MAX to leave the ground.

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mxaxai
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Re: 2019 Post Grounding 737 MAX Storage, Production and Modification

Wed Mar 13, 2019 11:08 pm

aaexecplat wrote:
Realistically, if they wanted to really remediate all the issues, they would need to:

- Add a third AOA sensor to all planes
- Create logic in the FC to make use of all 3 AOA sensors
- Rewrite the MCAS logic
- Make aerodynamic changes to the nacelles to reduce lift
- potentially increase the control surfaces of the horizontal stabilizers

Much less than this, and I would consider it only a patch. And if ET302 is found to be a repeat of JT601, I suspect regulators will require several of these mods before they allow the MAX to leave the ground.

Or they could simply deactivate MCAS (if MCAS is found to be the culprit) when the two existing AoA sensors disagree. Give the pilots an alert that MCAS is inactive and that's it. Then train the pilots on the different handling compared to a 737NG.

Depending on the duration of this grounding, we might see just a few undeliverable jets up to situations comparable to the Airbus glider fleet. We'll know more in a few days, when the first investigation results come and when Boeing decides what solution they want to push.
 
aaexecplat
Posts: 506
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Re: 2019 Post Grounding 737 MAX Storage, Production and Modification

Wed Mar 13, 2019 11:22 pm

mxaxai wrote:
aaexecplat wrote:
Realistically, if they wanted to really remediate all the issues, they would need to:

- Add a third AOA sensor to all planes
- Create logic in the FC to make use of all 3 AOA sensors
- Rewrite the MCAS logic
- Make aerodynamic changes to the nacelles to reduce lift
- potentially increase the control surfaces of the horizontal stabilizers

Much less than this, and I would consider it only a patch. And if ET302 is found to be a repeat of JT601, I suspect regulators will require several of these mods before they allow the MAX to leave the ground.

Or they could simply deactivate MCAS (if MCAS is found to be the culprit) when the two existing AoA sensors disagree. Give the pilots an alert that MCAS is inactive and that's it. Then train the pilots on the different handling compared to a 737NG.

Depending on the duration of this grounding, we might see just a few undeliverable jets up to situations comparable to the Airbus glider fleet. We'll know more in a few days, when the first investigation results come and when Boeing decides what solution they want to push.


I don't think that will be an option for even a temporary solution as we have already had reporting that the FAA and Boeing disagreed about the scope of the MCAS modifications before ET302, so I can't imagine the FAA giving in at this poi t and simply allowing BAC to turn off the functionality altogether. That said.. who knows...let's find out what they know, but whatever they know is apparently sufficient to shut down the MAX entirely at this point, which I don't take to be good news.
 
dampfnudel
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Re: 2019 Post Grounding 737 MAX Storage, Production and Modification

Wed Mar 13, 2019 11:29 pm

FlapsOne wrote:
Are they still making the 737NG aircraft or has that line closed?

Boeing still has to build a few more 737-900ERs for Delta.
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keesje
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Re: 2019 Post Grounding 737 MAX Storage, Production and Modification

Wed Mar 13, 2019 11:37 pm

The Chinese were the first to ground the 737-8.

One third of MAX production is destined for Chinese operators these days.

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IADCA
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Re: 2019 Post Grounding 737 MAX Storage, Production and Modification

Wed Mar 13, 2019 11:47 pm

Airlinerdude wrote:
keesje wrote:

Boeing 737 is currently producting 52 a month, so many. And the Renton platform will fill up quickly, if they can't be ferried.


Could they not be ferried as 'experimental' aircraft? Evidently the aircraft are flown around for test flying before they're ever certified by the FAA.

Stitch wrote:
Provisions will no doubt be made to allow them to ferry them as necessary.


The FAA order for today explicitly allows this on a case-by-case basis.
 
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Francoflier
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Re: 2019 Post Grounding 737 MAX Storage, Production and Modification

Wed Mar 13, 2019 11:53 pm

aaexecplat wrote:
Or they could simply deactivate MCAS (if MCAS is found to be the culprit) when the two existing AoA sensors disagree. Give the pilots an alert that MCAS is inactive and that's it. Then train the pilots on the different handling compared to a 737NG.


Why this isn't the case already boggles the mind...
This is a system with no redundancy which depends on the signal from only one of two vulnerable probes and acts directly on the most powerful control surface of the aircraft, and the one way to know that there might be an issue with these probes is a customer option?

How the hell did that get past regulators?
I'll do my own airline. With Blackjack. And hookers. In fact, forget the airline.
 
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atcsundevil
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Re: 2019 Post Grounding 737 MAX Storage, Production and Modification

Thu Mar 14, 2019 12:02 am

We already have way too many discussions on this topic. Please post to the existing threads for now. More fragmented discussions can take place later, but right now there isn't enough information to have multiple fragmented threads, because all of the discussion is the same in every thread.

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