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PlymSpotter
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Re: Could the MAX grounding be the end of Norwegian?

Fri Mar 15, 2019 1:58 am

oldannyboy wrote:
PlymSpotter wrote:
The problem for Norwegian is whether this grounding has a residual affect which dissuades the public from flying them or their MAX aircraft in future, even once the issues are fully rectified.
.


Wouldn't that thinking apply to any other airline flying the MAX, and particularly to those who are planning to use vast fleets of the MAX (cue AA), or almost solely MAX aircrafts (cue WN)??


Indeed, but the financial situation of carriers like WN and AA is somewhat more stable than Norwegian's. Additionally the percentage of the fleet which will eventually be comprised of MAX's is lower for a lot of carriers like AC, AA, UA etc...

I can see Norwegian switching to the A321LR for all the higher profile TATL routes anyway.
...love is just a camouflage for what resembles rage again...
 
grbauc
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Re: Could the MAX grounding be the end of Norwegian?

Fri Mar 15, 2019 3:47 am

enilria wrote:
It’s great how any industry development is an excellent occasion to pronounce doom and gloom on Norwegian. First, Boeing will end up paying for all of this, and if it really does threaten Norwegian, Boeing would be the first to step up with financing for Norwegian which has been a loyal customer. They do not want them going anywhere.


Thank you for putting reason in to this tread. I wonder are we just inundated with teens and 20's yrs olds that have no prospective on the industry and how these problems in past work out and to slow down and have some patience answers will come. We can look at history for the road map. Either that or its foreign Trolls trying to sew discord.. These things have happened before folks. Boeing is not going to let Norwegian go out of business if there product has a flaw.
 
skystar767
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Re: Could the MAX grounding be the end of Norwegian?

Fri Mar 15, 2019 4:19 am

You can’t blame DY for using the flag of convenience. They don’t make the laws individual countries make the laws. Just like EK/EY/QR flying fifth freedom flights.
 
wexfordflyer
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Re: Could the MAX grounding be the end of Norwegian?

Fri Mar 15, 2019 8:49 am

IADCA wrote:
Mortyman wrote:
IADCA wrote:

Let's try it in the most neutral manner possible: "Norwegian, despite the name, has significant operations in the UK and thus faces substantial Brexit-related uncertainty."


Wich they have done everything to prepare for. Besides, Norwegian will hardly be the only airline with this uncertainty.

I was just trying to clear up the subtext for a confused member asking about it, not to start a discussion on it.


I agree with Mortyman, I don't think Brexit is anything that Norwegian specifically need to be concerned about. It's much bigger and broader than them.
I initially asked the question as I felt the first post was a bit throwaway and I was wondering what the poster meant, to which I am still none the wiser.
Come with me, there's a place I want you to see, where the leaves are dark, I've got a hiding place in central park.
 
oldannyboy
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Re: Could the MAX grounding be the end of Norwegian?

Fri Mar 15, 2019 8:51 am

outbackair wrote:
oldannyboy wrote:
skystar767 wrote:
I know some of you are wishing and hoping DY go under. it’s just sad. I hope they stick around for a long time. This generation now a days is just so negative about everything.


I actually think this group of very vocal, very negative, cantankerous gits poisoning this site must actually be a gang of older folks who are still clinging to the safe old world order and holding on for dear life....


Always amuses me how 'older folk' obviously know nothing and the wise, younger people don't think they will ever age themselves.


Except you have no idea what my demographics are.... Just sayin' :lol:
 
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enilria
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Re: Could the MAX grounding be the end of Norwegian?

Fri Mar 15, 2019 10:41 am

grbauc wrote:
enilria wrote:
It’s great how any industry development is an excellent occasion to pronounce doom and gloom on Norwegian. First, Boeing will end up paying for all of this, and if it really does threaten Norwegian, Boeing would be the first to step up with financing for Norwegian which has been a loyal customer. They do not want them going anywhere.


Thank you for putting reason in to this tread. I wonder are we just inundated with teens and 20's yrs olds that have no prospective on the industry and how these problems in past work out and to slow down and have some patience answers will come. We can look at history for the road map. Either that or its foreign Trolls trying to sew discord.. These things have happened before folks. Boeing is not going to let Norwegian go out of business if there product has a flaw.

I think there are a lot of trolls who have hated Norwegian since ALPA joined with the US3 to try to keep their low fares out of their 85% controlled European JV tri-opoly. I say trolls, but I think these are just people who want Norwegian dead because their union or management told them that the world will be better off with fewer people being able to afford to fly.
 
BA777FO
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Re: Could the MAX grounding be the end of Norwegian?

Fri Mar 15, 2019 1:41 pm

planesarecool wrote:
BA777FO wrote:
oldannyboy wrote:

I actually think this group of very vocal, very negative, cantankerous gits poisoning this site must actually be a gang of older folks who are still clinging to the safe old world order and holding on for dear life....


Or perhaps hoping flags of convenience and terrible staff T&Cs get consigned to the dustbin. It's not a safe old world order to want employees to have a contract in the country from which they operate, which pays a reasonable wage and isn't one big tax dodge.

No problem if they decide to start playing by the rules, but that's their only differential to other airlines, it's unsurprising that alone isn't enough to turn a profit.


I suggest you take up the issue of your dwindling T&Cs with your own bosses, or have they successfully brainwashed you into using the competition provided by Norwegian as a valid excuse to cut your terms?

3000+ type rated pilots out of a job and on the market isn’t good for any of us. Open your eyes.



Of course 3,000+ pilots (do they really have that many?!) on the market isn't good for T&Cs either. But that'll be a short, temporary issue. Ongoing tax dodges will pressure mine and your T&Cs for decades to come.
 
BA777FO
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Re: Could the MAX grounding be the end of Norwegian?

Fri Mar 15, 2019 1:47 pm

enilria wrote:
grbauc wrote:
enilria wrote:
It’s great how any industry development is an excellent occasion to pronounce doom and gloom on Norwegian. First, Boeing will end up paying for all of this, and if it really does threaten Norwegian, Boeing would be the first to step up with financing for Norwegian which has been a loyal customer. They do not want them going anywhere.


Thank you for putting reason in to this tread. I wonder are we just inundated with teens and 20's yrs olds that have no prospective on the industry and how these problems in past work out and to slow down and have some patience answers will come. We can look at history for the road map. Either that or its foreign Trolls trying to sew discord.. These things have happened before folks. Boeing is not going to let Norwegian go out of business if there product has a flaw.

I think there are a lot of trolls who have hated Norwegian since ALPA joined with the US3 to try to keep their low fares out of their 85% controlled European JV tri-opoly. I say trolls, but I think these are just people who want Norwegian dead because their union or management told them that the world will be better off with fewer people being able to afford to fly.


In reality they're not really any cheaper. On short haul, their fares are comparable, certainly not much lower and often more expensive. On longhaul, again fares are broadly similar. On occassions Norweigan works out cheaper but the business model is largely the same as everyone elses; they have no utilisation advantages, no real cost advantages aside perhaps from labour (any fuel saving from 787s, which more of their competitors have now anyway, is sucked up by higher financing costs) and no revenue advantages. It's little wonder they've lost money year after year.
 
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enilria
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Re: Could the MAX grounding be the end of Norwegian?

Fri Mar 15, 2019 3:02 pm

BA777FO wrote:
enilria wrote:
grbauc wrote:

Thank you for putting reason in to this tread. I wonder are we just inundated with teens and 20's yrs olds that have no prospective on the industry and how these problems in past work out and to slow down and have some patience answers will come. We can look at history for the road map. Either that or its foreign Trolls trying to sew discord.. These things have happened before folks. Boeing is not going to let Norwegian go out of business if there product has a flaw.

I think there are a lot of trolls who have hated Norwegian since ALPA joined with the US3 to try to keep their low fares out of their 85% controlled European JV tri-opoly. I say trolls, but I think these are just people who want Norwegian dead because their union or management told them that the world will be better off with fewer people being able to afford to fly.


In reality they're not really any cheaper. On short haul, their fares are comparable, certainly not much lower and often more expensive. On longhaul, again fares are broadly similar. On occassions Norweigan works out cheaper but the business model is largely the same as everyone elses; they have no utilisation advantages, no real cost advantages aside perhaps from labour (any fuel saving from 787s, which more of their competitors have now anyway, is sucked up by higher financing costs) and no revenue advantages. It's little wonder they've lost money year after year.

I hear this argument often. It's B.S. When Norwegian or any LCC enters a market, the legacies match or nearly match to drive them out. And then people say, look they aren't cheaper!!! You can't be cheaper when your competitors with much higher costs match you and lose tons of money doing it. If Norwegian's costs aren't lower as you say, then why have ALPA and the US3 been complaining for years about their crew staffing from 3rd countries? Also, the price necessary to make money on a plane that is 100% local traffic is MUCH lower than the price that has to be charged to produce the same revenue per flight on an airline with hub connections. People don't really get that simple math.
 
UPNYGuy
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Re: Could the MAX grounding be the end of Norwegian?

Fri Mar 15, 2019 3:44 pm

enilria wrote:
BA777FO wrote:
enilria wrote:
I think there are a lot of trolls who have hated Norwegian since ALPA joined with the US3 to try to keep their low fares out of their 85% controlled European JV tri-opoly. I say trolls, but I think these are just people who want Norwegian dead because their union or management told them that the world will be better off with fewer people being able to afford to fly.


In reality they're not really any cheaper. On short haul, their fares are comparable, certainly not much lower and often more expensive. On longhaul, again fares are broadly similar. On occassions Norweigan works out cheaper but the business model is largely the same as everyone elses; they have no utilisation advantages, no real cost advantages aside perhaps from labour (any fuel saving from 787s, which more of their competitors have now anyway, is sucked up by higher financing costs) and no revenue advantages. It's little wonder they've lost money year after year.

I hear this argument often. It's B.S. When Norwegian or any LCC enters a market, the legacies match or nearly match to drive them out. And then people say, look they aren't cheaper!!! You can't be cheaper when your competitors with much higher costs match you and lose tons of money doing it. If Norwegian's costs aren't lower as you say, then why have ALPA and the US3 been complaining for years about their crew staffing from 3rd countries? Also, the price necessary to make money on a plane that is 100% local traffic is MUCH lower than the price that has to be charged to produce the same revenue per flight on an airline with hub connections. People don't really get that simple math.



I flew PHL- FCO in October 2010 on US Airways, and paid $1500 r/t for an economy seat. Last month, I flew EWR-FCO and paid less than half of that on Norwegian. Not a coincidence. I could do a random booking in April and pay $820. So yes, they are less.
 
winginit
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Re: Could the MAX grounding be the end of Norwegian?

Fri Mar 15, 2019 4:28 pm

bluefltspecial wrote:
winginit wrote:
oldannyboy wrote:
I actually think this group of very vocal, very negative, cantankerous gits poisoning this site must actually be a gang of older folks who are still clinging to the safe old world order and holding on for dear life....


oldannyboy wrote:

Don't hold your breath.

I think the naysayers are still going to have to face a long hard difficult time trying to figure out ways in which to dismiss anything good DY does and foresee doom and gloom and disaster.... :stirthepot:

So much negativity on this forum!


Will the MAX groundings accelerate the inevitable end of Norwegian long-haul? No, but I'd love for one of the handful of users who are for whatever reason so emotionally attached to Norwegian and their failing business model to state outright here that they'd bet money on Norwegian still operating long-haul international flights in three years time. I'll bet their US routes will be cut in half if not more by the end of next year.



I'll take that bet.

I'm not emotionally attached to Norwegian, but I like what they have done. They have certainly shaken up the operations for carriers operating across the Atlantic that have long held a monopoly there. Remember when legacy airlines rules Transcon US flying, and then this little no-name, lovey-dovey, happy go lucky, new airline came in, and started operating Transcon US market flying, and everyone said, "they'll go under, they'll never make it, they are in financial trouble, they won't make their payments, you can't compete with legacy airlines on those routes, no one will fly them, they're doomed..." Well, JetBlue is doing pretty good today, and I see Norwegian doing the same. Norwegian, like JetBlue and Spirit in their history, is trying to find their place in the industry, and they're doing just that. It won't happen overnight, Norwegian took on a LOT of ideas, programs, and aircraft, now they are trimming themselves into the carrier they want to be, and finding what works for the current market.

In terms of Norwegian, I can tell what you and everyone else already knows. They've already announced the discontinuation of some unprofitable 737 Max Routes operating Transoceanic. They've also pulled unprofitable 787 routes. They continue to receive 787s another 4-5 this year.

As to your bet; Cut their routes in half? No.
Maintain routes and increase frequency on profitable routes, and adjust frequency for seasonal operations: yes.
Just like every other airline.

As I have said over and over again, "the only constant in the airline industry, is change..."


We'll call it a bet then.

For the record, JetBlue was never, ever in financial straits that are even remotely comparable to where Norwegian is today. You'll recall JetBlue was one of only a few US airlines who made a profit in the years immediately following 9/11, and since then they've only had two years (2006 and 2008) where they lost money.
 
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enilria
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Re: Could the MAX grounding be the end of Norwegian?

Fri Mar 15, 2019 7:32 pm

UPNYGuy wrote:
enilria wrote:
BA777FO wrote:

In reality they're not really any cheaper. On short haul, their fares are comparable, certainly not much lower and often more expensive. On longhaul, again fares are broadly similar. On occassions Norweigan works out cheaper but the business model is largely the same as everyone elses; they have no utilisation advantages, no real cost advantages aside perhaps from labour (any fuel saving from 787s, which more of their competitors have now anyway, is sucked up by higher financing costs) and no revenue advantages. It's little wonder they've lost money year after year.

I hear this argument often. It's B.S. When Norwegian or any LCC enters a market, the legacies match or nearly match to drive them out. And then people say, look they aren't cheaper!!! You can't be cheaper when your competitors with much higher costs match you and lose tons of money doing it. If Norwegian's costs aren't lower as you say, then why have ALPA and the US3 been complaining for years about their crew staffing from 3rd countries? Also, the price necessary to make money on a plane that is 100% local traffic is MUCH lower than the price that has to be charged to produce the same revenue per flight on an airline with hub connections. People don't really get that simple math.



I flew PHL- FCO in October 2010 on US Airways, and paid $1500 r/t for an economy seat. Last month, I flew EWR-FCO and paid less than half of that on Norwegian. Not a coincidence. I could do a random booking in April and pay $820. So yes, they are less.

Exactly right sir, people don't understand that the legacies fare match to hold LCC's heads under water, although I would expect more from a.net posters.
 
BA777FO
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Re: Could the MAX grounding be the end of Norwegian?

Fri Mar 15, 2019 7:52 pm

enilria wrote:
BA777FO wrote:
enilria wrote:
I think there are a lot of trolls who have hated Norwegian since ALPA joined with the US3 to try to keep their low fares out of their 85% controlled European JV tri-opoly. I say trolls, but I think these are just people who want Norwegian dead because their union or management told them that the world will be better off with fewer people being able to afford to fly.


In reality they're not really any cheaper. On short haul, their fares are comparable, certainly not much lower and often more expensive. On longhaul, again fares are broadly similar. On occassions Norweigan works out cheaper but the business model is largely the same as everyone elses; they have no utilisation advantages, no real cost advantages aside perhaps from labour (any fuel saving from 787s, which more of their competitors have now anyway, is sucked up by higher financing costs) and no revenue advantages. It's little wonder they've lost money year after year.

I hear this argument often. It's B.S. When Norwegian or any LCC enters a market, the legacies match or nearly match to drive them out. And then people say, look they aren't cheaper!!! You can't be cheaper when your competitors with much higher costs match you and lose tons of money doing it. If Norwegian's costs aren't lower as you say, then why have ALPA and the US3 been complaining for years about their crew staffing from 3rd countries? Also, the price necessary to make money on a plane that is 100% local traffic is MUCH lower than the price that has to be charged to produce the same revenue per flight on an airline with hub connections. People don't really get that simple math.


It's not BS - it's fact. The reason ALPA had an issue with it is because crew contracts enabled them to essentially avoid social security taxes in the countries that they were operating in. Ryanair had/has similar models - this year the UK taxman (HMRC) is clamping down on it. Imagine if the US3 didn't have to pay any payroll taxes.

And Norweigan does nothing differently except unbundle their fare and have lower labour costs. They have no other operational cost advantage. That's the simple math and for Norweigan an inconvenient truth that they're still losing money hand over fist. Perhaps take a little time to understand why ALPA have the issues they do rather than dismissing them without understanding them.
 
BA777FO
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Re: Could the MAX grounding be the end of Norwegian?

Fri Mar 15, 2019 7:57 pm

enilria wrote:
UPNYGuy wrote:
enilria wrote:
I hear this argument often. It's B.S. When Norwegian or any LCC enters a market, the legacies match or nearly match to drive them out. And then people say, look they aren't cheaper!!! You can't be cheaper when your competitors with much higher costs match you and lose tons of money doing it. If Norwegian's costs aren't lower as you say, then why have ALPA and the US3 been complaining for years about their crew staffing from 3rd countries? Also, the price necessary to make money on a plane that is 100% local traffic is MUCH lower than the price that has to be charged to produce the same revenue per flight on an airline with hub connections. People don't really get that simple math.



I flew PHL- FCO in October 2010 on US Airways, and paid $1500 r/t for an economy seat. Last month, I flew EWR-FCO and paid less than half of that on Norwegian. Not a coincidence. I could do a random booking in April and pay $820. So yes, they are less.

Exactly right sir, people don't understand that the legacies fare match to hold LCC's heads under water, although I would expect more from a.net posters.


All rather anecdotal. Of course revenue management teams will take competition into account when setting their prices and airlines will charge what they can get away with. BA arguably faces the fiercest competition from Norwegian and just posted a record set of profits. BA's 777s out of LGW have a lower unit cost than Norwegian's 787s, largely becausw Norwegian's financing costs are so high. So BA can be cheaper to the likes of MCO, FLL and TPA and still make money. But keep the anecdotes coming, always interesting to hear!
 
alan3
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Re: Could the MAX grounding be the end of Norwegian?

Fri Mar 15, 2019 8:06 pm

I'm torn with regards to Norwegian.

On one hand, travel is a wonderful thing and if they are helping more people explore the world and VFR traffic connect with friends and family, it's great. Legacy airlines have been turning Y class (where they don't make money) into such a cramped, unpleasant no frills experience anyway, the experience in the back of the plane has become negligible between LCC's and legacies.

On the other hand, long haul low cost is notoriously difficult and nothing is too good to be true (See Wow Air). Norwegian's model is clearly in financial trouble. There just isn't enough savings there. Not only that but they have among the highest cancellation, delay and customer complaint levels (which I admit Ryanair has too before anyone says anything). Personally, as an airline enthusiast there's also something unsettling about this type of Amazon/McDonaldization in the industry, spreading a generic "fast food chain in the sky" model around the world, driving down labor costs and standards too much too soon too fast ( again, see Wow Air).
 
THS214
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Re: Could the MAX grounding be the end of Norwegian?

Fri Mar 15, 2019 8:22 pm

MaksFly wrote:
HAHA, cancelling routes may actually be a benefit.

If they are losing money on each flight... they are now not. Furthermore, with the grounding, I am sure they will be happy to get Boeing to pay for the downtime. HAPPY days at Norwegian.


Remember that it can take years before Boeing pays anything for Norwegian.
 
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enilria
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Re: Could the MAX grounding be the end of Norwegian?

Sat Mar 16, 2019 12:28 am

BA777FO wrote:
enilria wrote:
BA777FO wrote:

In reality they're not really any cheaper. On short haul, their fares are comparable, certainly not much lower and often more expensive. On longhaul, again fares are broadly similar. On occassions Norweigan works out cheaper but the business model is largely the same as everyone elses; they have no utilisation advantages, no real cost advantages aside perhaps from labour (any fuel saving from 787s, which more of their competitors have now anyway, is sucked up by higher financing costs) and no revenue advantages. It's little wonder they've lost money year after year.

I hear this argument often. It's B.S. When Norwegian or any LCC enters a market, the legacies match or nearly match to drive them out. And then people say, look they aren't cheaper!!! You can't be cheaper when your competitors with much higher costs match you and lose tons of money doing it. If Norwegian's costs aren't lower as you say, then why have ALPA and the US3 been complaining for years about their crew staffing from 3rd countries? Also, the price necessary to make money on a plane that is 100% local traffic is MUCH lower than the price that has to be charged to produce the same revenue per flight on an airline with hub connections. People don't really get that simple math.


It's not BS - it's fact. The reason ALPA had an issue with it is because crew contracts enabled them to essentially avoid social security taxes in the countries that they were operating in. Ryanair had/has similar models - this year the UK taxman (HMRC) is clamping down on it. Imagine if the US3 didn't have to pay any payroll taxes.

And Norweigan does nothing differently except unbundle their fare and have lower labour costs. They have no other operational cost advantage. That's the simple math and for Norweigan an inconvenient truth that they're still losing money hand over fist. Perhaps take a little time to understand why ALPA have the issues they do rather than dismissing them without understanding them.

So you just said that Norwegian has no cost advantage and that they have an illegal cost advantage. Surely you must realize you are talking in circles?

Also, again if you don't understand how having a local traffic model vs a connecting hub model allows you to offer lower fares and potentially achieve the same revenue in a market big enough to be stimulated then you don't understand one of the most basic fundamentals of airline economics.
BA777FO wrote:
All rather anecdotal. Of course revenue management teams will take competition into account when setting their prices and airlines will charge what they can get away with. BA arguably faces the fiercest competition from Norwegian and just posted a record set of profits. BA's 777s out of LGW have a lower unit cost than Norwegian's 787s, largely becausw Norwegian's financing costs are so high. So BA can be cheaper to the likes of MCO, FLL and TPA and still make money. But keep the anecdotes coming, always interesting to hear!

So, for example, according to MIDT when D8/DY entered JFK-MAD last Summer the fare went from $1010RT pre-tax the prior Summer to $638RT. So that's an actual sourced piece of data. What data are you using for your analysis that Norwegian has no effect on fares?
 
BA777FO
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Re: Could the MAX grounding be the end of Norwegian?

Sat Mar 16, 2019 12:24 pm

enilria wrote:
BA777FO wrote:
enilria wrote:
I hear this argument often. It's B.S. When Norwegian or any LCC enters a market, the legacies match or nearly match to drive them out. And then people say, look they aren't cheaper!!! You can't be cheaper when your competitors with much higher costs match you and lose tons of money doing it. If Norwegian's costs aren't lower as you say, then why have ALPA and the US3 been complaining for years about their crew staffing from 3rd countries? Also, the price necessary to make money on a plane that is 100% local traffic is MUCH lower than the price that has to be charged to produce the same revenue per flight on an airline with hub connections. People don't really get that simple math.


It's not BS - it's fact. The reason ALPA had an issue with it is because crew contracts enabled them to essentially avoid social security taxes in the countries that they were operating in. Ryanair had/has similar models - this year the UK taxman (HMRC) is clamping down on it. Imagine if the US3 didn't have to pay any payroll taxes.

And Norweigan does nothing differently except unbundle their fare and have lower labour costs. They have no other operational cost advantage. That's the simple math and for Norweigan an inconvenient truth that they're still losing money hand over fist. Perhaps take a little time to understand why ALPA have the issues they do rather than dismissing them without understanding them.

So you just said that Norwegian has no cost advantage and that they have an illegal cost advantage. Surely you must realize you are talking in circles?

Also, again if you don't understand how having a local traffic model vs a connecting hub model allows you to offer lower fares and potentially achieve the same revenue in a market big enough to be stimulated then you don't understand one of the most basic fundamentals of airline economics.
BA777FO wrote:
All rather anecdotal. Of course revenue management teams will take competition into account when setting their prices and airlines will charge what they can get away with. BA arguably faces the fiercest competition from Norwegian and just posted a record set of profits. BA's 777s out of LGW have a lower unit cost than Norwegian's 787s, largely becausw Norwegian's financing costs are so high. So BA can be cheaper to the likes of MCO, FLL and TPA and still make money. But keep the anecdotes coming, always interesting to hear!

So, for example, according to MIDT when D8/DY entered JFK-MAD last Summer the fare went from $1010RT pre-tax the prior Summer to $638RT. So that's an actual sourced piece of data. What data are you using for your analysis that Norwegian has no effect on fares?



You're on transmit, not receive. I'm not talking in circles - the point is that Norwegian's business model is essentially no different, its only advantage is lower labour costs through underhanded measures. I've consistently made that point, there's no contradiction. However, because that's their only advantage they're unable to make those lower fares that stimulate the market, as you say, achieve a positive bottom line.

Anyone can make money charging $10 for a $20 bill. Your business just won't last long. That's not (unsustainable businesses that is) in the interests of staff, passengers or investors. Let me know when Norwegian starts making a sustainable profit on those lower fares.
 
BrianWilkes
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Re: Could the MAX grounding be the end of Norwegian?

Sat Mar 16, 2019 1:24 pm

I believe the airline has already dug a hole for it self and it's just a matter of time!
 
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enilria
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Re: Could the MAX grounding be the end of Norwegian?

Sat Mar 16, 2019 11:20 pm

BA777FO wrote:
You're on transmit, not receive. I'm not talking in circles - the point is that Norwegian's business model is essentially no different, its only advantage is lower labour costs through underhanded measures. I've consistently made that point, there's no contradiction. However, because that's their only advantage they're unable to make those lower fares that stimulate the market, as you say, achieve a positive bottom line.

Anyone can make money charging $10 for a $20 bill. Your business just won't last long. That's not (unsustainable businesses that is) in the interests of staff, passengers or investors. Let me know when Norwegian starts making a sustainable profit on those lower fares.

I guess since it's clear you don't understand the difference in economics between hub (typical legacy) and a local pricing (typical LCC) strategy I'm going to have to explain it.

City A has average fares of $1000 RT to City B, C, D, E, F, G.
City A to City B has demand of 150 passengers per day, C, D, E, F, and G have demand of 50 each.

This is an overly simplified example.

Hub Strategy Flight from City A to City B
150 passengers at $1000 to City A
50 passengers at $500 City C, $1000 prorated over Flight 1 and Flight 2
50 passengers at $500 City D, $1000 prorated over Flight 1 and Flight 2
50 passengers at $500 City E, $1000 prorated over Flight 1 and Flight 2
50 passengers at $500 City F, $1000 prorated over Flight 1 and Flight 2
50 passengers at $500 City G, $1000 prorated over Flight 1 and Flight 2
400 passengers; 40% local traffic; average prorate fare is $687.50; large aircraft

Local Strategy Flight from City A to City B
225 passengers at $666 to City A
By cutting the price by 34% in a market with 1:1 revenue stimulation, the marketsize jumps 50%.
225 passengers; 100% local; average fare is $666; smaller aircraft

You can cut the fare by 34% in this example and get almost identical yield in each strategy. Potentially the RASM is also the same if the aircraft size is reduced in scenario 2. Plus the costs of operating a hub are MUCH higher than a local operation even on a per passenger basis, and I did not even consider the denser seating configuration an LCC typically operates.
 
BA777FO
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Re: Could the MAX grounding be the end of Norwegian?

Sun Mar 17, 2019 10:09 am

I'm aware operating a hub incurs costs that a point to point operation does not. And yet despite all this Norwegian still can't turn a profit.

Your assumption involves several flaws. First, that the market is stimulated to the extent that it is by reduced pricing. There is obviously a "Southwest effect" in pricing but not all city pairs will be stimulated to the same extent by reduced pricing. The second flaw is that Norwegian operates few routes with no competition on long haul outside of Scandanavia and that's where they're losing money - their load factors lately have been terrible too. From LGW their CASM on expensively financed 787s is higher than on BA's fully paid off and densified 777s. They don't even have a pricing advantage there at their biggest base. BA typically matches their prices, if not beats them, and that's not BA taking a loss to keep Norwegian at arms length, BA is turning record profits.

To stimulate the market enough for Norwegian to gain a meaningful share they're having to sell virtually every seat at a loss. That's the unsustainable reality.
 
jmmadrid
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Re: Could the MAX grounding be the end of Norwegian?

Sun Mar 17, 2019 1:11 pm

Also, the point to point flight strategy might work during the high season, but what about the slow months?
It's much easier to find passengers when you have a hub.
Moreover, companies that have a hub strategy usually use pricing to have a balance between their point to point and their connecting passengers.
Don’t confuse my personality with my attitude. My personality is who I am. My attitude depends on who you are.
 
mattyfitzg
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Re: Could the MAX grounding be the end of Norwegian?

Sun Mar 17, 2019 1:30 pm

enilria wrote:
First, Boeing will end up paying for all of this, and if it really does threaten Norwegian, Boeing would be the first to step up with financing for Norwegian.


Like Airbus didn’t do for Primera regarding late deliveries.
 
winginit
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Re: Could the MAX grounding be the end of Norwegian?

Tue Mar 19, 2019 4:17 am

Norwegian have announced that their Chairman will step down in May
 
DENTK
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Re: Could the MAX grounding be the end of Norwegian?

Tue Mar 19, 2019 4:25 am

slcdeltarumd11 wrote:
People really want Norweigan to die on here!

Would you work a "B" scale?
 
Someone83
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Re: Could the MAX grounding be the end of Norwegian?

Tue Mar 19, 2019 7:01 am

DENTK wrote:
slcdeltarumd11 wrote:
People really want Norweigan to die on here!

Would you work a "B" scale?


Actually, here in Norway: Norwegian offer better conditions for newly hired pilot than SAS. Both better pay and better scheduling
 
BA777FO
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Re: Could the MAX grounding be the end of Norwegian?

Tue Mar 19, 2019 8:44 am

That's more of a damning indictment on SAS than anything else. T&Cs at Norwegian are horrendous.
 
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enilria
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Re: Could the MAX grounding be the end of Norwegian?

Thu Mar 21, 2019 5:24 pm

mattyfitzg wrote:
enilria wrote:
First, Boeing will end up paying for all of this, and if it really does threaten Norwegian, Boeing would be the first to step up with financing for Norwegian.


Like Airbus didn’t do for Primera regarding late deliveries.

I think if anybody gets reimbursed it's Norwegian because Boeing knows a customer likely hangs in the balance. Whether mega-carriers like WN get reimbursed is a more thorny question and will depend upon where blame gets placed. I could totally see Norwegian getting paid and WN not.
 
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spinkid
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Re: Could the MAX grounding be the end of Norwegian?

Sat Mar 23, 2019 6:17 am

I had started a new thread. I forgot about this one. My information below details the current situation closer to the original post regarding Norwegian and the 737MAX. This is well over a week since the grounding.

With the 737 MAX not flying. Norwegian's current strategy has been to replace SWF-DUB flying with a Dreamliner. Currently you can only book through March 28th. 23-28th shows a $336 roundtrip with no option for Premium Seats (are they flying them empty? or do they have an all Y 787-9?

It was discussed briefly in the larger thread, but thought it deserved its own.

PVD-DUB is Not operating. See below, as to how they have solved it. Taking a bus to SWF is a minimum of a 3 hour drive.

Customers currently booked on flights to Dublin will be rebooked on flights operating the 787-9 Dreamliner. Passengers scheduled to depart from Providence will be accommodated on buses from T.F. Green Airport to Stewart Airport. Customers will receive notifications and updates via SMS, on our website and through customer care services to ensure they are informed of the latest information. Source link below

https://media.us.norwegian.com/pressrel ... in-2847251

SWF-DUB, PVD-DUB,
show as SOLD OUT for April. You can book flights after May 1st, but everything is priced at $809 + each way.
PVD-ORK, PVD-SNN, SWF-SNN, SWF-BGO, YHM-DUB, All are showing as SOLD OUT for March and April and again You can book flights after May 1st, but everything is priced at $809 + each way.

SWF-EDI ended early, it was supposed to fly through the end of the month. Some of the above are Seasonal that were scheduled to begin in April.

How long can they wait out the grounding of the Max? They recently trimmed these flights quite a bit already.
 
ryanov
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Re: Could the MAX grounding be the end of Norwegian?

Sat Mar 23, 2019 6:32 am

I was born in 1981. I have no problem with LCCs, though I personally choose not to take those flights. I'm not made of money, but I want to enjoy my travel.

I don't fly on Norwegian and would prefer they didn't exist. Just because the stealing they do is legal doesn't make it right. Companies that make money should pay taxes, not play these stupid games.
 
787Driver
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Re: Could the MAX grounding be the end of Norwegian?

Sat Mar 23, 2019 7:27 am

ryanov wrote:
I was born in 1981. I have no problem with LCCs, though I personally choose not to take those flights. I'm not made of money, but I want to enjoy my travel.

I don't fly on Norwegian and would prefer they didn't exist. Just because the stealing they do is legal doesn't make it right. Companies that make money should pay taxes, not play these stupid games.


Problem is that airlines compete on a global stage. So if an airline is based in a country where corporate taxes are high, they will never be able to compete on equal terms with airlines based where corporate taxes are low. That’s why they need to be creative when it comes to paying taxes or they wouldn’t be able to exist at all.
 
ELBOB
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Re: Could the MAX grounding be the end of Norwegian?

Sat Mar 23, 2019 7:36 am

alan3 wrote:
...and VFR traffic connect with friends and family.


Please, just drop that stupid acronym. VFR Traffic has had a clear meaning for 80 years and it's "Visual Flight Rules".

ryanov wrote:
I don't fly on Norwegian and would prefer they didn't exist. Just because the stealing they do is legal doesn't make it right. Companies that make money should pay taxes, not play these stupid games.


You do realise that companies only pay tax on profits, right? And Norwegian doesn't make profits?
 
MartijnNL
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Re: Could the MAX grounding be the end of Norwegian?

Sat Mar 23, 2019 8:13 am

BA777FO wrote:
That's more of a damning indictment on SAS than anything else. T&Cs at Norwegian are horrendous.

What does T&Cs stand for?
 
BA777FO
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Re: Could the MAX grounding be the end of Norwegian?

Sat Mar 23, 2019 9:06 am

MartijnNL wrote:
BA777FO wrote:
That's more of a damning indictment on SAS than anything else. T&Cs at Norwegian are horrendous.

What does T&Cs stand for?


Terms and Conditions - essentially the terms of their contract of employment.
 
Staralexi
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Re: Could the MAX grounding be the end of Norwegian?

Sat Mar 23, 2019 9:49 am

VFR traffic is visiting friends and relatives. It has been used as a standard industry teem for decades.
 
Oykie
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Re: Could the MAX grounding be the end of Norwegian?

Sat Mar 23, 2019 9:52 am

Norwegian has had a rough financial year, and of course this grounding affects them. But remember that the richest Norwegian man John Fredriksen bought stocks in Norwegian worth 350 million USD, January 2019. According to Forbes he has a net worth of 11.1 billion USD. He is according to Forbes ranked as the 129th richest person in the world. So even if Norwegian is struggling financially, they have some wealthy owners, and therefore I believe they will survive the current grounding and financial downturn currently experienced in Europe.
Dream no small dream; it lacks magic. Dream large, then go make that dream real - Donald Douglas
 
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Jouhou
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Re: Could the MAX grounding be the end of Norwegian?

Sat Mar 23, 2019 10:09 am

Staralexi wrote:
VFR traffic is visiting friends and relatives. It has been used as a standard industry teem for decades.


The difference appears to be on what side of the industry a person is on... but your use of "VFR" is a well accepted and frequently used term here.

People use acronyms all the time that mean something completely different to me in my own world of professional technical jargon. It's ok, I can deal with it.
情報
 
CeddP
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Re: Could the MAX grounding be the end of Norwegian?

Sat Mar 23, 2019 10:17 am

BA777FO wrote:

It's not BS - it's fact. The reason ALPA had an issue with it is because crew contracts enabled them to essentially avoid social security taxes in the countries that they were operating in. Ryanair had/has similar models - this year the UK taxman (HMRC) is clamping down on it. Imagine if the US3 didn't have to pay any payroll taxes.

And Norweigan does nothing differently except unbundle their fare and have lower labour costs. They have no other operational cost advantage. That's the simple math and for Norweigan an inconvenient truth that they're still losing money hand over fist. Perhaps take a little time to understand why ALPA have the issues they do rather than dismissing them without understanding them.


This is ALPA indoctrination and brainwashing at its best! Give me ONE (1) exemple of crew not having a local contract in Norwegian?! There are 10 different contracts with associated T&Cs in Norwegian, one for each country where the company has a base. Every single crew works under a local contract, pays taxes in this country while company pays for social security in this same country. And it applies to everybody in the company, either SH or LH. I'd love to compare contracts of crews based in Paris with any US contract and see who's the one avoiding taxes!! :lol:

About T&Cs being horrendous, again, explain how Norwegian managed to DOUBLE it's crew workforce in just a year and a half? I'm not saying it was a brilliant idea, I rather think it was lunacy, but it says a lot regarding their T&Cs against its competitors in Europe...

So like it or not, nothing you're saying about labor cost is fact, only BS I'm afraid
 
armchairceonr1
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Re: Could the MAX grounding be the end of Norwegian?

Sat Mar 23, 2019 10:30 am

Oykie wrote:
Norwegian has had a rough financial year, and of course this grounding affects them. But remember that the richest Norwegian man John Fredriksen bought stocks in Norwegian worth 350 million USD, January 2019. According to Forbes he has a net worth of 11.1 billion USD. He is according to Forbes ranked as the 129th richest person in the world. So even if Norwegian is struggling financially, they have some wealthy owners, and therefore I believe they will survive the current grounding and financial downturn currently experienced in Europe.

Fredriksen was only guarantor for emission, he didn't buy any stock. He just open his wallet to get guarantee commission 12 million NOK from Norwegian.
 
BA777FO
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Re: Could the MAX grounding be the end of Norwegian?

Sat Mar 23, 2019 11:41 am

CeddP wrote:
BA777FO wrote:

It's not BS - it's fact. The reason ALPA had an issue with it is because crew contracts enabled them to essentially avoid social security taxes in the countries that they were operating in. Ryanair had/has similar models - this year the UK taxman (HMRC) is clamping down on it. Imagine if the US3 didn't have to pay any payroll taxes.

And Norweigan does nothing differently except unbundle their fare and have lower labour costs. They have no other operational cost advantage. That's the simple math and for Norweigan an inconvenient truth that they're still losing money hand over fist. Perhaps take a little time to understand why ALPA have the issues they do rather than dismissing them without understanding them.


This is ALPA indoctrination and brainwashing at its best! Give me ONE (1) exemple of crew not having a local contract in Norwegian?! There are 10 different contracts with associated T&Cs in Norwegian, one for each country where the company has a base. Every single crew works under a local contract, pays taxes in this country while company pays for social security in this same country. And it applies to everybody in the company, either SH or LH. I'd love to compare contracts of crews based in Paris with any US contract and see who's the one avoiding taxes!! :lol:

About T&Cs being horrendous, again, explain how Norwegian managed to DOUBLE it's crew workforce in just a year and a half? I'm not saying it was a brilliant idea, I rather think it was lunacy, but it says a lot regarding their T&Cs against its competitors in Europe...

So like it or not, nothing you're saying about labor cost is fact, only BS I'm afraid


Interestingly enough, I'm not based in the USA and typically don't read ALPA stuff. I've flown with plenty of people who were at Norwegian and jumped ship to us as soon as they had the hours.

Pilots are typically employed through agencies such as Rishworth Aviation or OSM - it's like the old Brookfield contract at Ryanair. It enables Norwegian to avoid social security payments and pilots are not afforded the same protections as at other airlines. A majority of pilots are not actually employed directly with Norwegian - a Ghent university study concluded that Norwegiam uses aggressive forms of bogus self employment:

https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&sourc ... myzldbx9yO

So atypical employment structures where pilots are not contracted with the airline that they fly for, don't have the same protections and don't have fair representation.

Where were Norwegian pilots coming from? Ryanair? A few others with atrocious T&Cs too. With what was a rather overcrowded pilot pool a few years ago it wasn't surprising. They'd struggle to replicate that growth now, especially if the likes of BA, Virgin and other major European airlines continue to hire.
 
CeddP
Posts: 49
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Re: Could the MAX grounding be the end of Norwegian?

Sat Mar 23, 2019 12:52 pm

BA777FO wrote:
Pilots are typically employed through agencies such as Rishworth Aviation or OSM - it's like the old Brookfield contract at Ryanair. It enables Norwegian to avoid social security payments and pilots are not afforded the same protections as at other airlines. A majority of pilots are not actually employed directly with Norwegian - a Ghent university study concluded that Norwegiam uses aggressive forms of bogus self employment


Indeed, I don't deny that (well, Rishworth not anymore actually). But the big difference with Ryanair is even if not directly employed by Norwegian but by a subsidiary (50%+ of OSM directly owned by Norwegian), contracts are still local ones! You say "it enables Norwegian to avoid social security payments and pilots are not afforded the same protections as at other airlines". Give me specifics! Which social security payments are avoided? What "protections" are you talking about?

So atypical employment structures where pilots are not contracted with the airline that they fly for, don't have the same protections and don't have fair representation.


Again, specifics? Self employment in Norwegian, any real exemple at all? Regarding representation, I've never heard about anyone in Norwegian being prevented from joining unions… Just for pilots you're looking at IALPA, BALPA, SNPL, SEPLA, ANPAC and the different NPUs for scandy, forming all together the NPG. Not a fair representation? :shock:

Where were Norwegian pilots coming from? Ryanair? A few others with atrocious T&Cs too. With what was a rather overcrowded pilot pool a few years ago it wasn't surprising. They'd struggle to replicate that growth now, especially if the likes of BA, Virgin and other major European airlines continue to hire.


There's no denying that T&Cs in majors are always going to be better than in Norwegian. But affirming that Norwegian goes all the way to the other end of the T&C spectrum and saying the only cost advantage of this company is its low labor cost due to ethically reprehensive tax workaround practices and "horrendous" T&Cs is outrageously dishonest.
 
Oykie
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Re: Could the MAX grounding be the end of Norwegian?

Sat Mar 23, 2019 4:57 pm

armchairceonr1 wrote:
Oykie wrote:
Norwegian has had a rough financial year, and of course this grounding affects them. But remember that the richest Norwegian man John Fredriksen bought stocks in Norwegian worth 350 million USD, January 2019. According to Forbes he has a net worth of 11.1 billion USD. He is according to Forbes ranked as the 129th richest person in the world. So even if Norwegian is struggling financially, they have some wealthy owners, and therefore I believe they will survive the current grounding and financial downturn currently experienced in Europe.

Fredriksen was only guarantor for emission, he didn't buy any stock. He just open his wallet to get guarantee commission 12 million NOK from Norwegian.


I was wodndeitng about that as Fobers says he bought 350 milllion USD of stock, but he does not appear on the owners list.
Dream no small dream; it lacks magic. Dream large, then go make that dream real - Donald Douglas
 
smartplane
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Re: Could the MAX grounding be the end of Norwegian?

Sat Mar 23, 2019 8:13 pm

All MAX customers will receive compensation, most likely in the form of credits rather than cash. Presume as for retrospective credits on aircraft purchases, customers will have the option to convert to cash (discounted, not $ for $).
 
winginit
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Re: Could the MAX grounding be the end of Norwegian?

Wed Mar 27, 2019 8:48 pm

As of today, Norwegian is suspending NY ticket sales for flights between New York Stewart International and Europe as a direct result of the MAX groundings.

In related news, Norwegian's stock has continued to crumble, and hit it's lowest value in 10 years last week.
 
Eyad89
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Re: Could the MAX grounding be the end of Norwegian?

Wed Mar 27, 2019 8:53 pm

smartplane wrote:
All MAX customers will receive compensation, most likely in the form of credits rather than cash. Presume as for retrospective credits on aircraft purchases, customers will have the option to convert to cash (discounted, not $ for $).


It depends on the contract, but I think Boeing would definitely compensate in cash, like what they did with the 787 grounding.

Airlines want their compensations ASAP, getting a discount on a potential order is definitely not ideal for them.
 
Lewton
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Re: Could the MAX grounding be the end of Norwegian?

Thu Mar 28, 2019 9:13 am

winginit wrote:
As of today, Norwegian is suspending NY ticket sales for flights between New York Stewart International and Europe as a direct result of the MAX groundings.

In related news, Norwegian's stock has continued to crumble, and hit it's lowest value in 10 years last week.

Soon someone might realise that it's a great opportunity to make an offer for Norwegian at these price level.
Any bets?
From Hamburg with love.
 
winginit
Posts: 3071
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Re: Could the MAX grounding be the end of Norwegian?

Thu Mar 28, 2019 10:05 pm

Lewton wrote:
winginit wrote:
As of today, Norwegian is suspending NY ticket sales for flights between New York Stewart International and Europe as a direct result of the MAX groundings.

In related news, Norwegian's stock has continued to crumble, and hit it's lowest value in 10 years last week.

Soon someone might realise that it's a great opportunity to make an offer for Norwegian at these price level.
Any bets?


I'd argue it's extremely concerning that both IAG abandoned their stake and that even at these levels no one has made an offer for DY. White Knights can quickly become vultures as we just saw with WOW and are seeing with Jet.
 
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zkojq
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Re: Could the MAX grounding be the end of Norwegian?

Thu Mar 28, 2019 11:52 pm

planesarecool wrote:
BA777FO wrote:
Or perhaps hoping flags of convenience and terrible staff T&Cs get consigned to the dustbin. It's not a safe old world order to want employees to have a contract in the country from which they operate, which pays a reasonable wage and isn't one big tax dodge.

No problem if they decide to start playing by the rules, but that's their only differential to other airlines, it's unsurprising that alone isn't enough to turn a profit.


I suggest you take up the issue of your dwindling T&Cs with your own bosses, or have they successfully brainwashed you into using the competition provided by Norwegian as a valid excuse to cut your terms?

3000+ type rated pilots out of a job and on the market isn’t good for any of us. Open your eyes.


Ironic for someone from BA to be complaining about another carrier causing worse employment conditions. BA's Mixed Fleet Cabin crew has been pushing industry wages downwards since 2010. Long before Norwegian began long haul ops.
First to fly the 787-9
 
a350lover
Posts: 980
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Re: Could the MAX grounding be the end of Norwegian?

Fri Mar 29, 2019 5:53 pm

According to Airlineroute Norwegian DUB TATL operation is scheduled as follows:

31MAR - 30 JUN Dublin-Stewart operated by Evelop A330-300.
Dublin-Hamilton until the 29 JUL operated by 738.

https://twitter.com/Airlineroute/status ... 0211477504

Tickets are on sale at "Flex fares" of 649€ every day of May, showing for many other dates flights as "completed". Same for Hamilton. Strange.

I don't know if it wouldn't be easier just to drop the routes.
 
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spinkid
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Re: Could the MAX grounding be the end of Norwegian?

Mon Apr 01, 2019 4:11 am

Airline Routes is reporting the following changes for Newburgh and Hamilton for Norwegian. An A330 a SWF Daily for a while will make for great spotting!

Norwegian Air International in last week’s schedule update adjusted operational aircraft for Dublin – Newburgh/Stewart route, from 01APR19 to 30JUN19. During this period, leased Airbus A330-300 aircraft from Evelop Airlines will operate this route on daily basis.

D81763 DUB1430 – 1650SWF 333 D
D81762 SWF2055 – 0815+1DUB 333 7
D81762 SWF2100 – 0820+1DUB 333 x7

Norwegian Air International in recent schedule update filed service changes for its planned Dublin – Hamilton service, scheduled to commence on 31MAR19. Previously planned daily service has been revised to 4 weekly since early-March 2019 (or earlier), from 31MAR19 to 13SEP19.

Due to Boeing 737 MAX 8 grounding, operational aircraft will switch to Boeing 737-800, from 31MAR19 to 29APR19, reflected in the last few days. Operational aircraft on/after 01MAY19 is pending.

D81840 DUB1440 – 1725YHM 73H x246
D81841 YHM1945 – 0730+1DUB 73H x246



Availability remains the same as my post from last week on almost all their Trans Atlantic Routes. It shows as sold out or Insanely Priced. Only some of the Hamilton to Dublin flights appear bookable "as normal". Not only they are losing Spring break in all of the Northeast US Regions, this is also when bookings for summer travel start to increase.

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