dfdubflyer
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Re: OAG Changes 3/17/2019: NK Closes CAP;UA Suspends SFO-AMS

Sun Mar 17, 2019 7:10 pm

How long has AA been greater than 1x daily on DFW-MAD? It seems like not that long ago that route was launched (2013?)

DFW-PAR seems like they’re serious about keeping at 2x daily much of the week to hurt AF
 
YYZORD
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Re: OAG Changes 3/17/2019: NK Closes CAP;UA Suspends SFO-AMS

Sun Mar 17, 2019 7:21 pm

Even those who love UA also connected in YYZ from SFO to AMS w AC.

United1 wrote:
Fargo wrote:
LAXdude1023 wrote:
SFO-AMS never made much sense to me. No surprise there.


Why? Is SFO not big enough to be served on both KL and UA metal?


Both SFO and AMS are huge financial and cultural centers so should be more than enough room. Despite being a Skyteam stronghold UA has always been able to hold its own in AMS. UA also knows how many passengers it was flowing SFO-EWR/ORD/IAH/IAD-AMS before offering a non-stop so am sure they believe there is enough of a market. Assuming that yields look yucky this winter.
 
United1
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Re: OAG Changes 3/17/2019: NK Closes CAP;UA Suspends SFO-AMS

Sun Mar 17, 2019 7:30 pm

LAXdude1023 wrote:
United1 wrote:
LAXdude1023 wrote:

SFO is a huge financial center. AMS’s economy isn’t financially turned. The economy there is much more centered around oil and natural gas, machinery, and marine based industries.


AMS's economy might be a bit more financially tuned than you realize. It's considered to be on par with SF in terms of influence and diversification although not to the same scale. You can usually find Amsterdam ranked in the top 40 global financial centers.


It doesn’t appear to be. It ranks alongside Wellington and Busan. Not saying there’s no finance there at all but that clearly wasn’t enough to make this route not a dud. Amsterdam is going to be a lot closer tied to a city like Houston because the drivers of the economy are more similar.


The Netherlands and IAH do have some strong historical gas and oil ties but even the Dutch have realized they need to diversify. For example the largest company in the Netherlands is Royal Dutch Shell (there is your Houston tie in but that is where it stops) the second largest is ING ($$$$$) and number three is Aegon (finances and pensions.) AMS usually ranks around #40 in terms of global financial centers IAH doesn't even make the top 100. One of the reasons why UA has been able to make AMS work from multiple US cities is Amsterdam's economy is very diverse and not tied to one specific industry. IAH is a one trick pony...energy...the two cities economies are not really that similar.

I'm not convinced this route is a dud by the way. UA made SFO-MUC year round vs seasonal this upcoming winter and the aircraft had to come from somewhere so what I am convinced of is UA believes MUC can generate better yields this winter. UA is also a bit short on 789s this winter as they are due to start getting Polaris/PP. Lets see if this route comes back next March when UA has more 789s being delivered and then perhaps we can make a better judgement.

Page 15 of the pdf is a good place to see how cities financial centers stack up against eachother.

https://www.zyen.com/media/documents/GF ... XXvEuw.pdf
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TransWorldOne
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Re: OAG Changes 3/17/2019: NK Closes CAP;UA Suspends SFO-AMS

Sun Mar 17, 2019 7:44 pm

dcajet wrote:
717atOGG wrote:
Interesting that SEA-MEX is going twice-daily. Although the route isn't doing horribly, it's certainly not a rock-star performer, if its LF is any indicator. Maybe AM's cancellation of PDX-MEX benefited SEA?


Connecting the 2 hubs of this JV?


It would have been nice to have seen DL operate the second flight.
 
Judge1310
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Re: OAG Changes 3/17/2019: NK Closes CAP;UA Suspends SFO-AMS

Sun Mar 17, 2019 8:03 pm

Aliqiout wrote:
I have suspected UA's SFO-AMS was not doing well. I have been seeing many second tier cities-AMS on UA for close to $400 RT.


Ummm, no. Yes, SFO-AMS was previously announced as a year-round flight which has now been switched to seasonal (running until 25OCT2019).

The reason? Because it's more profitable to switch SFO-MUC from seasonal to year-round. SFO-MUC goes daily starting 26OCT2019. AMS is still served from ORD, IAD, IAH, and EWR. I would imagine that when more 787-9s get on property then SFO-AMS year-round would be considered again.

Remember, people, network planning is not just about picking new routes -- we also have to look at which existing routes have developed and could use an equipment upgauge, schedule increase/extension, or both. So, just as SFO-MUC started as seasonal and now converting to year-round, the same fate could occur with SFO-AMS.
 
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enilria
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Re: OAG Changes 3/17/2019: NK Closes CAP;UA Suspends SFO-AMS

Sun Mar 17, 2019 8:19 pm

RJNUT wrote:
these are my favorite posts of the week, but as we get closer to the busy summer schedules, these posts are often more about Fall seasonal drops versus exciting new adds, but informative nonetheless. Thanks!

Yeah exactly. It's a little depressing as we roll into Summer, but hopefully they will sprinkle in good news.
Judge1310 wrote:
Aliqiout wrote:
I have suspected UA's SFO-AMS was not doing well. I have been seeing many second tier cities-AMS on UA for close to $400 RT.


Ummm, no. Yes, SFO-AMS was previously announced as a year-round flight which has now been switched to seasonal (running until 25OCT2019).

The reason? Because it's more profitable to switch SFO-MUC from seasonal to year-round. SFO-MUC goes daily starting 26OCT2019. AMS is still served from ORD, IAD, IAH, and EWR. I would imagine that when more 787-9s get on property then SFO-AMS year-round would be considered again.

Remember, people, network planning is not just about picking new routes -- we also have to look at which existing routes have developed and could use an equipment upgauge, schedule increase/extension, or both. So, just as SFO-MUC started as seasonal and now converting to year-round, the same fate could occur with SFO-AMS.

I think AMS is really hard for non-SkyTeam. It's just not that big a market and it's way overserved from the USA thanks to its mega-hub. It's not as bad as DOH, but similar problems for other carriers. I saw somewhere that ATL-AMS was less than 10% local traffic and 90% connect. Really hard to compete in a market like that.
 
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intotheair
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Re: OAG Changes 3/17/2019: NK Closes CAP;UA Suspends SFO-AMS

Sun Mar 17, 2019 8:53 pm

It doesn't surprise me to see that SFO-AMS on UA needs some time to grow. It's been very easy to find saver economy award availability on SFO-AMS this summer, whereas the same cannot be said of SFO-LHR or SFO-CDG.

Not that it means that the route is catastrophically doomed and losing money hand over fist as the histrionics might want some to believe, but it's probably an indicator that the route is still maturing.
300 319 320 321 332 333 345 346 717 733 734 735 73G 738 739 744 752 753 762 763 772 77W 788 789 CR2 CR7 CR9 Q400 E175 DC10 MD82 MD90
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panam330
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Re: OAG Changes 3/17/2019: NK Closes CAP;UA Suspends SFO-AMS

Sun Mar 17, 2019 9:06 pm

enilria wrote:
AA CDG-DFW NOV 1.0>1.4[0.9] DEC 1.0>1.4[1.0]
AA DFW-MAD NOV 1.0>1.6[0.9] DEC 1.0>1.6[0.9]
AA LHR-MIA NOV 1.0>2[1.0] DEC 1.0>2[1.0]
AA LHR-PHL NOV 2>1.0[1.8] DEC 2>1.0[1.8]

These are relatively significant changes, IMO. Seems like they had an extra frame for use in DFW, and extra European frequencies were the best (read: least terrible) place to put them. Makes me think it's a plan B in the event they're not awarded LAS-HND. If they are, they can whack the CDG/MAD frequencies, move bookings with little effect on pax and call it done.
On another (selfish) note, I would like to see some extra ICN frequency/capacity from DFW or to see them launch LAX-ICN. It would be a fantastic add to the LAX-Asia network, IMO, if they can achieve the necessary yields.
 
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Re: OAG Changes 3/17/2019: NK Closes CAP;UA Suspends SFO-AMS

Sun Mar 17, 2019 9:21 pm

United1 wrote:
LAXdude1023 wrote:
United1 wrote:

AMS's economy might be a bit more financially tuned than you realize. It's considered to be on par with SF in terms of influence and diversification although not to the same scale. You can usually find Amsterdam ranked in the top 40 global financial centers.


It doesn’t appear to be. It ranks alongside Wellington and Busan. Not saying there’s no finance there at all but that clearly wasn’t enough to make this route not a dud. Amsterdam is going to be a lot closer tied to a city like Houston because the drivers of the economy are more similar.


The Netherlands and IAH do have some strong historical gas and oil ties but even the Dutch have realized they need to diversify. For example the largest company in the Netherlands is Royal Dutch Shell (there is your Houston tie in but that is where it stops) the second largest is ING ($$$$$) and number three is Aegon (finances and pensions.) AMS usually ranks around #40 in terms of global financial centers IAH doesn't even make the top 100. One of the reasons why UA has been able to make AMS work from multiple US cities is Amsterdam's economy is very diverse and not tied to one specific industry. IAH is a one trick pony...energy...the two cities economies are not really that similar.

I'm not convinced this route is a dud by the way. UA made SFO-MUC year round vs seasonal this upcoming winter and the aircraft had to come from somewhere so what I am convinced of is UA believes MUC can generate better yields this winter. UA is also a bit short on 789s this winter as they are due to start getting Polaris/PP. Lets see if this route comes back next March when UA has more 789s being delivered and then perhaps we can make a better judgement.

Page 15 of the pdf is a good place to see how cities financial centers stack up against eachother.

https://www.zyen.com/media/documents/GF ... XXvEuw.pdf


You're going to have to point out to me where I said Houston was a financial city.

And yeah, its not looking good if a route is cut back even before it starts. Its a pretty good sign UA isn't pleased with sales and that translates to it being a dud on many levels.
Next flight: IAH-GUA-IAH on UA in Y.
 
emuwarveteran
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Re: OAG Changes 3/17/2019: NK Closes CAP;UA Suspends SFO-AMS

Sun Mar 17, 2019 9:27 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
If AA would stop cutting JFK that would be great, almost impossible for me not to chose DL at this point.

Seems that AA is moving quite a lot of traffic to ORD, PHL and RDO. Pretty much DL and B6 town at this point I guess
CL CRJ9, W6 A320
 
United1
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Re: OAG Changes 3/17/2019: NK Closes CAP;UA Suspends SFO-AMS

Sun Mar 17, 2019 10:36 pm

LAXdude1023 wrote:
United1 wrote:
LAXdude1023 wrote:

It doesn’t appear to be. It ranks alongside Wellington and Busan. Not saying there’s no finance there at all but that clearly wasn’t enough to make this route not a dud. Amsterdam is going to be a lot closer tied to a city like Houston because the drivers of the economy are more similar.


The Netherlands and IAH do have some strong historical gas and oil ties but even the Dutch have realized they need to diversify. For example the largest company in the Netherlands is Royal Dutch Shell (there is your Houston tie in but that is where it stops) the second largest is ING ($$$$$) and number three is Aegon (finances and pensions.) AMS usually ranks around #40 in terms of global financial centers IAH doesn't even make the top 100. One of the reasons why UA has been able to make AMS work from multiple US cities is Amsterdam's economy is very diverse and not tied to one specific industry. IAH is a one trick pony...energy...the two cities economies are not really that similar.

I'm not convinced this route is a dud by the way. UA made SFO-MUC year round vs seasonal this upcoming winter and the aircraft had to come from somewhere so what I am convinced of is UA believes MUC can generate better yields this winter. UA is also a bit short on 789s this winter as they are due to start getting Polaris/PP. Lets see if this route comes back next March when UA has more 789s being delivered and then perhaps we can make a better judgement.

Page 15 of the pdf is a good place to see how cities financial centers stack up against eachother.

https://www.zyen.com/media/documents/GF ... XXvEuw.pdf


You're going to have to point out to me where I said Houston was a financial city.

And yeah, its not looking good if a route is cut back even before it starts. Its a pretty good sign UA isn't pleased with sales and that translates to it being a dud on many levels.


You said that Houston and Amsterdam have similar drivers to their economies...they don't.

Switching this route to seasonal doesn't mean they were not pleased with sales..it means UA found a way to generate more revenue/produce higher yields using a limited resource (ie 789s on SFO-MUC vs SFO-AMS during the winter.)

Feel free to PM me if you have any more questions :)
I know the voices in my head aren't real but sometimes their ideas are just awesome!!!
 
Aliqiout
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Re: OAG Changes 3/17/2019: NK Closes CAP;UA Suspends SFO-AMS

Sun Mar 17, 2019 11:05 pm

babastud wrote:
Aliqiout wrote:
I have suspected UA's SFO-AMS was not doing well. I have been seeing many second tier cities-AMS on UA for close to $400 RT.


Stop with the Fake News!! The route has not even started yet...

Huh? It hasn't started yet, but they certainly have been selling tickets. They wouldn't be offering $400 tickets to connecting passengers if it was selling well.
 
Aliqiout
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Re: OAG Changes 3/17/2019: NK Closes CAP;UA Suspends SFO-AMS

Sun Mar 17, 2019 11:08 pm

Judge1310 wrote:
Aliqiout wrote:
I have suspected UA's SFO-AMS was not doing well. I have been seeing many second tier cities-AMS on UA for close to $400 RT.


Ummm, no. Yes, SFO-AMS was previously announced as a year-round flight which has now been switched to seasonal (running until 25OCT2019).

The reason? Because it's more profitable to switch SFO-MUC from seasonal to year-round. SFO-MUC goes daily starting 26OCT2019. AMS is still served from ORD, IAD, IAH, and EWR. I would imagine that when more 787-9s get on property then SFO-AMS year-round would be considered again.

Remember, people, network planning is not just about picking new routes -- we also have to look at which existing routes have developed and could use an equipment upgauge, schedule increase/extension, or both. So, just as SFO-MUC started as seasonal and now converting to year-round, the same fate could occur with SFO-AMS.

I am confused, you say no, but appear to be agreeing with me? They announced year round and realised it wasnt selling enough so they moved to the plane to another route.
 
dmg626
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Re: OAG Changes 3/17/2019: NK Closes CAP;UA Suspends SFO-AMS

Sun Mar 17, 2019 11:20 pm

Buf-Bna big news up here, weekend flight to a very popular destination
 
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enilria
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Re: OAG Changes 3/17/2019: NK Closes CAP;UA Suspends SFO-AMS

Sun Mar 17, 2019 11:22 pm

I have to agree that shortening the season before a route starts is not a good sign at all. It means it’s weaker than expected. They would not have meaningful sales numbers for Winter at this point so they would be cutting Winter based upon how poor Summer is. In retrospect they would have been smarter to start with seasonal service. I’m having trouble remembering the last time Delta added a Europe route year round from day 1. It’s rare.
 
Dominion301
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Re: OAG Changes 3/17/2019: NK Closes CAP;UA Suspends SFO-AMS

Sun Mar 17, 2019 11:28 pm

Prost wrote:
I have a question about M5 (Kenmore Air) CXH-LKE CXH = Vancouver Harbour Water Airport (Coal Harbour Seaplane Base).

My question is I thought all Canadian airports began with ‘Y’, is the Coal Harbour designation of CXH a hold over from maritime uses?


A handful of small Canadian airports’ IATA codes don’t begin with a “Y”. For example, AC serve Bathurst, New Brunswick that carries ZBF as it IATA code. Kangiqsualujjuaq, Quebec, which is served by Air Inuit, with XGR as it’s code, is another example.

PS: Cheers to enilria!
 
Judge1310
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Re: OAG Changes 3/17/2019: NK Closes CAP;UA Suspends SFO-AMS

Sun Mar 17, 2019 11:48 pm

enilria wrote:
I have to agree that shortening the season before a route starts is not a good sign at all. It means it’s weaker than expected. They would not have meaningful sales numbers for Winter at this point so they would be cutting Winter based upon how poor Summer is. In retrospect they would have been smarter to start with seasonal service. I’m having trouble remembering the last time Delta added a Europe route year round from day 1. It’s rare.


Think about it like this: Consider a morning commute via metro. Path A takes 1:25 minutes, costs $2.95 in total. Path B takes 44 minutes, but costs $9.80 in total. Which would you prefer given that both have the same end result of getting to work? For some (depending on their financial situation) they'd stay with Path A as, although it's longer, it's the lesser expensive option. For others they'd choose Path B. SFO-AMS and SFO-MUC are sort of like this analogy. Whereas both routes bring revenue and profits, both results can be maximised by choosing to extend an already existing route. I agree with the idea that the service "should" have started as seasonal -- indeed that has been UA M.O. over the past few years. With the new United, one never knows...we could see the SFO-AMS flight eventually upgauged to the 787-10 or even a 772 (a la SFO-Tel Aviv).

Main Take-away: It's not that SFO-AMS is doing poorly; rather it's that an opportunity exists (at this time) to earn even more continuing the SFO-MUC (Star Alliance hubs on both ends) route.:-)
 
acentauri
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Re: OAG Changes 3/17/2019: NK Closes CAP;UA Suspends SFO-AMS

Mon Mar 18, 2019 12:58 am

enilria wrote:
FAQ

AS OF JULY 2018 THERE ARE CHANGES TO THE FORMAT OF THIS REPORT...SEE BELOW
...............................

AA LHR-MIA NOV 1.0>2[1.0] DEC 1.0>2[1.0]
AA LHR-PHL NOV 2>1.0[1.8] DEC 2>1.0[1.8]
I believe 1 PHL-LHR Slot Pair was transferred to AA MIA-LHR (2nd AA Flight) for the Winter only and will be returned to PHL-LHR in the Spring. Maybe someone can confirm, or not.
 
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LAXintl
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Re: OAG Changes 3/17/2019: NK Closes CAP;UA Suspends SFO-AMS

Mon Mar 18, 2019 1:14 am

panam330 wrote:
On another (selfish) note, I would like to see some extra ICN frequency/capacity from DFW or to see them launch LAX-ICN. It would be a fantastic add to the LAX-Asia network, IMO, if they can achieve the necessary yields.


While back local AA sales teams were talking to their corp clients about the potential for LAXICN.
From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
 
Aliqiout
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Re: OAG Changes 3/17/2019: NK Closes CAP;UA Suspends SFO-AMS

Mon Mar 18, 2019 1:34 am

Judge1310 wrote:
enilria wrote:
I have to agree that shortening the season before a route starts is not a good sign at all. It means it’s weaker than expected. They would not have meaningful sales numbers for Winter at this point so they would be cutting Winter based upon how poor Summer is. In retrospect they would have been smarter to start with seasonal service. I’m having trouble remembering the last time Delta added a Europe route year round from day 1. It’s rare.


Think about it like this: Consider a morning commute via metro. Path A takes 1:25 minutes, costs $2.95 in total. Path B takes 44 minutes, but costs $9.80 in total. Which would you prefer given that both have the same end result of getting to work? For some (depending on their financial situation) they'd stay with Path A as, although it's longer, it's the lesser expensive option. For others they'd choose Path B. SFO-AMS and SFO-MUC are sort of like this analogy. Whereas both routes bring revenue and profits, both results can be maximised by choosing to extend an already existing route. I agree with the idea that the service "should" have started as seasonal -- indeed that has been UA M.O. over the past few years. With the new United, one never knows...we could see the SFO-AMS flight eventually upgauged to the 787-10 or even a 772 (a la SFO-Tel Aviv).

Main Take-away: It's not that SFO-AMS is doing poorly; rather it's that an opportunity exists (at this time) to earn even more continuing the SFO-MUC (Star Alliance hubs on both ends) route.:-)

If certainly is all relative, but unless they announced it as year round with no intention of actually running it in the winter, one has to conclude it is doing poorer than they had expected. I dont think there has a been a sudden surge in demand for MUC that would justify sacrificing a good route.

Hopefully it is strong enough to come back in summer 2020. If it is, I wouldn't be surprised to see it year round in a few years. I was much less sceptical than many when it was announced. I would have thought UA could have captured enough western US to AMS to make it work.
 
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Re: OAG Changes 3/17/2019: NK Closes CAP;UA Suspends SFO-AMS

Mon Mar 18, 2019 2:37 am

FATFlyer wrote:
Chuska wrote:
Re: Who is AN? in post 31:
AN is Advanced Air, a new commuter to the industry that recently won the EAS service to Silver City, NM. They keep announcing plans to start other routes but then cancel them before they start.

Advanced Air also flies the SurfAir routes in California. Then they operate the FBO at Hawthorne (HHR).


I am booked on PHX-HHR in May. Let’s hope they keep the route open until then!
Work Hard, Fly Right
 
TheAccountant
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Re: OAG Changes 3/17/2019: NK Closes CAP;UA Suspends SFO-AMS

Mon Mar 18, 2019 2:42 am

enilria wrote:
I’m having trouble remembering the last time Delta added a Europe route year round from day 1. It’s rare.


Really? They started 4 new routes in 2018 that were immediately year-round. AMS-MCO, AMS-LAX, CDG-IND and CDG-LAX. Also JFK-LOS (but obviously Africa not Europe)
 
EvanWSFO
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Re: OAG Changes 3/17/2019: NK Closes CAP;UA Suspends SFO-AMS

Mon Mar 18, 2019 2:51 am

I don't understand why everyone is so worked up about UA taking SFO-AMS to seasonal. Yes it's a big hub for them, but they don't have an alliance connection in AMS. As others have pointed out, it makes more sense to devote the aircraft in the winter to MUC. Every other airline cuts back on TATL in the winter. Why the fuss?
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flyboy7974
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Re: OAG Changes 3/17/2019: NK Closes CAP;UA Suspends SFO-AMS

Mon Mar 18, 2019 2:56 am

acentauri wrote:
enilria wrote:
FAQ

AS OF JULY 2018 THERE ARE CHANGES TO THE FORMAT OF THIS REPORT...SEE BELOW
...............................

AA LHR-MIA NOV 1.0>2[1.0] DEC 1.0>2[1.0]
AA LHR-PHL NOV 2>1.0[1.8] DEC 2>1.0[1.8]
I believe 1 PHL-LHR Slot Pair was transferred to AA MIA-LHR (2nd AA Flight) for the Winter only and will be returned to PHL-LHR in the Spring. Maybe someone can confirm, or not.


Yes, just a seasonal transfer and PHL will be back to 2X after the winter season.
 
Judge1310
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Re: OAG Changes 3/17/2019: NK Closes CAP;UA Suspends SFO-AMS

Mon Mar 18, 2019 3:15 pm

EvanWSFO wrote:
I don't understand why everyone is so worked up about UA taking SFO-AMS to seasonal. Yes it's a big hub for them, but they don't have an alliance connection in AMS. As others have pointed out, it makes more sense to devote the aircraft in the winter to MUC. Every other airline cuts back on TATL in the winter. Why the fuss?



Exactly! I'm nearly done trying to explain/inform this forum on how Network Planning *actually* works. Network Planning is not a zero-sum game. Thank you for being a voice of reason.
 
kiowa
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Re: OAG Changes 3/17/2019: NK Closes CAP;UA Suspends SFO-AMS

Mon Mar 18, 2019 8:55 pm

babastud wrote:
Aliqiout wrote:
I have suspected UA's SFO-AMS was not doing well. I have been seeing many second tier cities-AMS on UA for close to $400 RT.


Stop with the Fake News!! The route has not even started yet...



I guess that is why the loads are so light and it is not making money if it hasen't started yet. :)
 
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enilria
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Re: OAG Changes 3/17/2019: NK Closes CAP;UA Suspends SFO-AMS

Mon Mar 18, 2019 9:38 pm

TheAccountant wrote:
enilria wrote:
I’m having trouble remembering the last time Delta added a Europe route year round from day 1. It’s rare.


CDG-LAX and AMS-LAX are simply metal swaps in a JV. That's really scraping the bottom of the barrel to make a point. IND was added year-round, but frequency is 1/2 in the Winter. Same with MCO-AMS. Hard to believe neither KL nor DL were flying that prior, but they weren't.
 
TheAccountant
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Re: OAG Changes 3/17/2019: NK Closes CAP;UA Suspends SFO-AMS

Mon Mar 18, 2019 10:30 pm

LAX-CDG/AMS were not metal swaps, Delta added additional flying.

Hard to say I’m scraping the bottom of the barrel when they started four year-round Europe flights last year
 
sargester
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Re: OAG Changes 3/17/2019: NK Closes CAP;UA Suspends SFO-AMS

Tue Mar 19, 2019 1:10 am

Midwestindy wrote:
enilria wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
If AA would stop cutting JFK that would be great, almost impossible for me not to chose DL at this point.

I was shocked not even PHL-JFK is daily. It's short, but plenty of feed.


Will be interesting to see how these start impacting JFK-LHR, for example MCO and RDU are the top 2 US airports for JFK-LHR feed....

AA does have the nonstop from RDU to LHR as well
 
grbauc
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Re: OAG Changes 3/17/2019: NK Closes CAP;UA Suspends SFO-AMS

Tue Mar 19, 2019 2:02 am

Midwestindy wrote:
If AA would stop cutting JFK that would be great, almost impossible for me not to chose DL at this point.


I get it about the feeling to be a AA flying at JFK.... Even for me at LAX DL is a hard competitor and gives AA a run for my money. DL miles suck but AA isn't always the best price or product. I try hard to keep it all AA way but since i'm buying J class DL gets a fair bit of my money.

DP and AA need a New vision imop. He needs to retire on top not sure why he stays. DL is doing most everything correctly from my view.
 
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Re: OAG Changes 3/17/2019: NK Closes CAP;UA Suspends SFO-AMS

Tue Mar 19, 2019 2:46 pm

Following along jonnyc Twitter account, looks like jfk San is canceled for a week starting Thursday. Most likely due to plane shortage, but not too promising for this route going forward if it’s deemed so expendable. Wouldn’t be surprised if they can it this year.
 
ScottB
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Re: OAG Changes 3/17/2019: NK Closes CAP;UA Suspends SFO-AMS

Tue Mar 19, 2019 3:53 pm

tphuang wrote:
Following along jonnyc Twitter account, looks like jfk San is canceled for a week starting Thursday. Most likely due to plane shortage, but not too promising for this route going forward if it’s deemed so expendable. Wouldn’t be surprised if they can it this year.


Maybe, but it's a daylight round-trip and they probably have a lot of rebooking options through DFW/ORD/CLT/PHX/LAX. It uses a 738 for an entire day's worth of flying (morning departure from SAN and afternoon return from JFK) and that equipment can be used to maintain the schedule in other places until the 7M8s are back in the air. I think it'd be more concerning if the eastbound flight were a red-eye.
 
FlyHossD
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Re: OAG Changes 3/17/2019: NK Closes CAP;UA Suspends SFO-AMS

Tue Mar 19, 2019 4:49 pm

United1 wrote:
LAXdude1023 wrote:
United1 wrote:
I'm not convinced this route is a dud by the way. UA made SFO-MUC year round vs seasonal this upcoming winter and the aircraft had to come from somewhere so what I am convinced of is UA believes MUC can generate better yields this winter. UA is also a bit short on 789s this winter as they are due to start getting Polaris/PP. Lets see if this route comes back next March when UA has more 789s being delivered and then perhaps we can make a better judgement.


That was my thought, too. The 787 for year-round SFO-MUC had to come from somewhere. We'll see in a year or so how SFO-AMS pans out.
My statements do not represent my former employer or my current employer and are my opinions only.
 
SRT75
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Re: OAG Changes 3/17/2019: NK Closes CAP;UA Suspends SFO-AMS

Tue Mar 19, 2019 4:58 pm

Fargo wrote:
LAXdude1023 wrote:
SFO-AMS never made much sense to me. No surprise there.


Why? Is SFO not big enough to be served on both KL and UA metal?


Could seasonal service be the result of lack of equipment? Diverting frames to more profitable routes?
 
dc10lover
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Re: OAG Changes 3/17/2019: NK Closes CAP;UA Suspends SFO-AMS

Tue Mar 19, 2019 5:26 pm

Fargo wrote:
LAXdude1023 wrote:
SFO-AMS never made much sense to me. No surprise there.


Why? Is SFO not big enough to be served on both KL and UA metal?

Maybe more people would rather fly KL instead of UA to Amsterdam. International Carriers are way better than AA, DL & UA.
Why endure the nightmare and congestion of LAX when BUR, LGB, ONT & SNA is so much easier to fly in and out of. Same with OAK & SJC when it comes to SFO.
 
axiom
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Re: OAG Changes 3/17/2019: NK Closes CAP;UA Suspends SFO-AMS

Tue Mar 19, 2019 7:18 pm

TheAccountant wrote:
enilria wrote:
I’m having trouble remembering the last time Delta added a Europe route year round from day 1. It’s rare.


Really? They started 4 new routes in 2018 that were immediately year-round. AMS-MCO, AMS-LAX, CDG-IND and CDG-LAX. Also JFK-LOS (but obviously Africa not Europe)


And have launched TPA-AMS year round, beginning this May.
 
SonaSounds
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Re: OAG Changes 3/17/2019: NK Closes CAP;UA Suspends SFO-AMS

Tue Mar 19, 2019 7:26 pm

SRT75 wrote:
Fargo wrote:
LAXdude1023 wrote:
SFO-AMS never made much sense to me. No surprise there.


Why? Is SFO not big enough to be served on both KL and UA metal?


Could seasonal service be the result of lack of equipment? Diverting frames to more profitable routes?


The title of this thread is very misleading. AMS is going to summer season only (before it even has its first flight) and instead United is making SFO-MUC year-round service. United's operation at SFO will remain the same, just opting to start a more mature route (MUC) in the winter instead of a new route (AMS). Personally I think this is a smart move on United's part.
 
IADCA
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Re: OAG Changes 3/17/2019: NK Closes CAP;UA Suspends SFO-AMS

Tue Mar 19, 2019 7:33 pm

Fargo wrote:
LAXdude1023 wrote:
SFO-AMS never made much sense to me. No surprise there.


Why? Is SFO not big enough to be served on both KL and UA metal?


UA struggles a bit with AMS even from the eastern gateways in the winter. I used to fly a fair amount of IAD to secondary European cities (e.g, OSL, ARN) and I'd often get the best deals on UA going over AMS in the winter and connecting onto SK there. It seemed like they were deliberately trying to push traffic in that manner rather than going over FRA, BRU, or one of the other *A hubs (or going SK the whole way over CPH).

I'd think that filling the back of the airplane in either direction on SFO-AMS would be a challenge in winter but that both directions would fill up nicely in summer.
 
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enilria
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Re: OAG Changes 3/17/2019: NK Closes CAP;UA Suspends SFO-AMS

Wed Mar 20, 2019 4:42 pm

SonaSounds wrote:
The title of this thread is very misleading.

No it's not. They suspended SFO-AMS.

Suspends means:
"temporarily prevent from continuing or being in force or effect.
"work on the dam was suspended"

How is using a word that means exactly what happened "very misleading"? I suppose people make up their own definitions of words outside what they actually mean.
 
SonaSounds
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Re: OAG Changes 3/17/2019: NK Closes CAP;UA Suspends SFO-AMS

Wed Mar 20, 2019 5:08 pm

enilria wrote:
SonaSounds wrote:
The title of this thread is very misleading.

No it's not. They suspended SFO-AMS.

Suspends means:
"temporarily prevent from continuing or being in force or effect.
"work on the dam was suspended"

How is using a word that means exactly what happened "very misleading"? I suppose people make up their own definitions of words outside what they actually mean.


Even by your own definition you are incorrect. If you said "UA Suspends SFO-AMS for Winter" you would be correct. But the service is continuing on to 2020 as summer only service as stayed above. The way you phrased it implies the service has been suspended i.e. no plans to continue (which is not the case) as you did not use a limiter. By your reasoning you could have meant the service is suspended before it even launches, the service is suspended after a few months, the service is suspended for winter season, etc by the way you phrased it. Context is key in the English language and in all my years doing network planning I have never heard anyone use the word "suspend" that way without a limiter in the context of how you used it.

Even if you still believe you are 100% correct, you can see the confusing your title caused in this thread by the multiple posters calling out the vague wording. At the end of the day its just a clickbait title like everything else on the internet...
 
BayAreaFan0
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Re: OAG Changes 3/17/2019: NK Closes CAP;UA Suspends SFO-AMS

Wed Mar 20, 2019 5:16 pm

enilria wrote:
SonaSounds wrote:
The title of this thread is very misleading.

No it's not. They suspended SFO-AMS.

Suspends means:
"temporarily prevent from continuing or being in force or effect.
"work on the dam was suspended"

How is using a word that means exactly what happened "very misleading"? I suppose people make up their own definitions of words outside what they actually mean.


I just read the thread title and thought the route was canceled until next year or something! Glad it is not as I am planning on taking UA to AMS at the end of this summer. The title wording is not clear imo
 
FSDan
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Re: OAG Changes 3/17/2019: NK Closes CAP;UA Suspends SFO-AMS

Wed Mar 20, 2019 5:51 pm

BayAreaFan0 wrote:
enilria wrote:
SonaSounds wrote:
The title of this thread is very misleading.

No it's not. They suspended SFO-AMS.

Suspends means:
"temporarily prevent from continuing or being in force or effect.
"work on the dam was suspended"

How is using a word that means exactly what happened "very misleading"? I suppose people make up their own definitions of words outside what they actually mean.


I just read the thread title and thought the route was canceled until next year or something! Glad it is not as I am planning on taking UA to AMS at the end of this summer. The title wording is not clear imo


I also initially thought SFO-AMS had been dropped for this summer based on the thread title (and was very surprised by that). The reduction from year-round to seasonal makes a lot more sense - I agree with others that the real surprise was that SFO-AMS was supposed to be year-round in the first place, while SFO-MUC was supposed to be seasonal.
This is my signature until I think of a better one.
 
jayunited
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Re: OAG Changes 3/17/2019: NK Closes CAP;UA Suspends SFO-AMS

Wed Mar 20, 2019 6:42 pm

enilria wrote:
SonaSounds wrote:
The title of this thread is very misleading.

No it's not. They suspended SFO-AMS.

Suspends means:
"temporarily prevent from continuing or being in force or effect.
"work on the dam was suspended"

How is using a word that means exactly what happened "very misleading"? I suppose people make up their own definitions of words outside what they actually mean.


I think what some people are getting bent out of shape about is the fact that the title left out for winter season. I know when I read this thread (which I love and read every Sunday) I was like this is a mistake UA has not suspended SFO-AMS, the flight will still launch this spring and operated through October 25th. The suspension is for the winter season but the flight returns spring 2020, which in your defense is not what UA announced when they announced this route and suspends is the correct word. That being said I'm not surprised by this changed UA reduces both ORD and IAD-AMS to either 4x or 5x weekly from like the second week of January through the third week in February. So when the announcement was made SFO-AMS would be year around 7x weekly I was a bit shocked because for now the only AMS routes that operate year around 7x weekly are EWR and IAH. It now seems as though SFO-MUC will go year around which is a much better choice for UA.

I know some time ago you posted you considered stopping these threads I implore you not to do that there are plenty of people who enjoy reading them and seeing the change year over year.
 
FSDan
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Re: OAG Changes 3/17/2019: NK Closes CAP;UA Suspends SFO-AMS

Wed Mar 20, 2019 7:19 pm

jayunited wrote:
I know some time ago you posted you considered stopping these threads I implore you not to do that there are plenty of people who enjoy reading them and seeing the change year over year.


I'll second this. As much as some of us tend to nitpick the wording in the title, or the routes that are marked with asterisks (or not marked), that in no way takes away from our enjoyment of the thread. Keep up the good work! :)
This is my signature until I think of a better one.
 
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enilria
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Re: OAG Changes 3/17/2019: NK Closes CAP;UA Suspends SFO-AMS

Thu Mar 21, 2019 2:42 pm

SonaSounds wrote:
enilria wrote:
SonaSounds wrote:
The title of this thread is very misleading.

No it's not. They suspended SFO-AMS.

Suspends means:
"temporarily prevent from continuing or being in force or effect.
"work on the dam was suspended"

How is using a word that means exactly what happened "very misleading"? I suppose people make up their own definitions of words outside what they actually mean.


Even by your own definition you are incorrect. If you said "UA Suspends SFO-AMS for Winter" you would be correct. But the service is continuing on to 2020 as summer only service as stayed above. The way you phrased it implies the service has been suspended i.e. no plans to continue (which is not the case) as you did not use a limiter. By your reasoning you could have meant the service is suspended before it even launches, the service is suspended after a few months, the service is suspended for winter season, etc by the way you phrased it. Context is key in the English language and in all my years doing network planning I have never heard anyone use the word "suspend" that way without a limiter in the context of how you used it.

Even if you still believe you are 100% correct, you can see the confusing your title caused in this thread by the multiple posters calling out the vague wording. At the end of the day its just a clickbait title like everything else on the internet...

First, the thread title is of limited length. I can't write a sentence about all the changes that are being summarized.
Second, not operating for the Winter is "temporarily prevent from continuing". How is ceasing something for the Winter not temporary?
Third, how do you know the route is coming back at all? As of now, United has suspended all future sales after October 25, 2019. There is NO RESUMPTION OF SERVICE for the route presently published. As of now the route is permanently suspended as far as their published schedule goes. I suspect they will in fact later on resume sale for next Summer, but there is fact and there is speculation. Fact is that you can no longer buy a ticket on SFO-AMS after October 25th <period>. You are the one speculating about the future with no proof.
 
SonaSounds
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Re: OAG Changes 3/17/2019: NK Closes CAP;UA Suspends SFO-AMS

Thu Mar 21, 2019 3:41 pm

enilria wrote:
SonaSounds wrote:
enilria wrote:
No it's not. They suspended SFO-AMS.

Suspends means:
"temporarily prevent from continuing or being in force or effect.
"work on the dam was suspended"

How is using a word that means exactly what happened "very misleading"? I suppose people make up their own definitions of words outside what they actually mean.


Even by your own definition you are incorrect. If you said "UA Suspends SFO-AMS for Winter" you would be correct. But the service is continuing on to 2020 as summer only service as stayed above. The way you phrased it implies the service has been suspended i.e. no plans to continue (which is not the case) as you did not use a limiter. By your reasoning you could have meant the service is suspended before it even launches, the service is suspended after a few months, the service is suspended for winter season, etc by the way you phrased it. Context is key in the English language and in all my years doing network planning I have never heard anyone use the word "suspend" that way without a limiter in the context of how you used it.

Even if you still believe you are 100% correct, you can see the confusing your title caused in this thread by the multiple posters calling out the vague wording. At the end of the day its just a clickbait title like everything else on the internet...

First, the thread title is of limited length. I can't write a sentence about all the changes that are being summarized.
Second, not operating for the Winter is "temporarily prevent from continuing". How is ceasing something for the Winter not temporary?
Third, how do you know the route is coming back at all? As of now, United has suspended all future sales after October 25, 2019. There is NO RESUMPTION OF SERVICE for the route presently published. As of now the route is permanently suspended as far as their published schedule goes. I suspect they will in fact later on resume sale for next Summer, but there is fact and there is speculation. Fact is that you can no longer buy a ticket on SFO-AMS after October 25th <period>. You are the one speculating about the future with no proof.


Somebody woke up on the wrong side of the bed..... All I am saying is your lack of clarity on your thread title created a lot of confusion as seen by the multiple comments of people above. It's like titling a thread "BA suffers 24 casualties on LHR-FRA". While it's a correct use of the words, if you meant casualties in this instance as just injuries and no deaths, that would be a misleading title as most people would assume some people died instead of people just being injured even though you used the word "casualties" correctly.

Additionally, ticket sales are only available 11-12 months out so next summer season isn't for sale yet hence why you don't see it published. Someone who has access to a Diio/OAG account should know that.....

Even Routes confirmed the service is changing to summer seasonal only: https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/ai ... in-201920/

In the end believe what you want, man.
 
ScottB
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Re: OAG Changes 3/17/2019: NK Closes CAP;UA Suspends SFO-AMS

Thu Mar 21, 2019 3:56 pm

SonaSounds wrote:
Even by your own definition you are incorrect. If you said "UA Suspends SFO-AMS for Winter" you would be correct. But the service is continuing on to 2020 as summer only service as stayed above. The way you phrased it implies the service has been suspended i.e. no plans to continue (which is not the case) as you did not use a limiter.


Nope. There has been no official announcement from UA as to whether the service returns in 2020 -- just some assertions from some posters that it's seasonal and hopes from others that it will return next year. There is zero proof that SFO-AMS on UA will ever resume. Routes Online calls it "summer seasonal" but that's based solely on the fact that the service, previously announced as year-round, ends for the winter season.

Using a limiter would have been inaccurate because there's no evidence at this time of the service resuming for summer 2020. You assume UA plans to resume SFO-AMS.
 
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enilria
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Re: OAG Changes 3/17/2019: NK Closes CAP;UA Suspends SFO-AMS

Thu Mar 21, 2019 4:37 pm

SonaSounds wrote:
Somebody woke up on the wrong side of the bed.....

Actually, I just have the flu like everybody else I see, but despite that the flight *is* suspended. You cannot buy a ticket after that date. I don't mean to take this out on you, but this debate goes on endlessly about what is the right word to use. I used to use "cut" because it was short and then people said "cut" means permanently eliminated. Then I tried "Dropped" and got a similar reaction. The I went to "suspended" which means it *may* come back and I'm still getting these linguistic battles. At the root of it is that there is hope on the part of someone that the change doesn't mean their route is gone and I get that, but I still need to communicate in human legible English and with only a few characters. I could say "out", but I suspect the same debate ensues. So...
 
SonaSounds
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Re: OAG Changes 3/17/2019: NK Closes CAP;UA Suspends SFO-AMS

Thu Mar 21, 2019 5:18 pm

ScottB wrote:
SonaSounds wrote:
Even by your own definition you are incorrect. If you said "UA Suspends SFO-AMS for Winter" you would be correct. But the service is continuing on to 2020 as summer only service as stayed above. The way you phrased it implies the service has been suspended i.e. no plans to continue (which is not the case) as you did not use a limiter.


Nope. There has been no official announcement from UA as to whether the service returns in 2020 -- just some assertions from some posters that it's seasonal and hopes from others that it will return next year. There is zero proof that SFO-AMS on UA will ever resume. Routes Online calls it "summer seasonal" but that's based solely on the fact that the service, previously announced as year-round, ends for the winter season.

Using a limiter would have been inaccurate because there's no evidence at this time of the service resuming for summer 2020. You assume UA plans to resume SFO-AMS.


Well you are assuming they are canceling the service aren't you? By your own logic it would be false to assume UA SFO-ZRH is coming back in 2020 as it has not been announced yet and shows no operations in winter season correct? United never announced they were canceling AMS-SFO. Everyone is going off of what was removed which was 03NOV19 – 31DEC19. Does this mean they canceled summer 2020? It is a Schrödinger's cat paradox that you can't prove or disprove it is coming back as United has made no announcement that the year round service is canceled.

The facts I am going off of are the following:
    United announced year round SFO-AMS service
    United removes 03NOV19 – 31DEC19 from the OAG
    Routes Online says the service is going summer seasonal

My conclusion is that the service will be returning next summer as United announced it as year round, pulled those 8 weeks of winter in favor of year round SFO-MUC, and nothing that I have seen is claiming the service isn't coming back next summer. If you have any more facts that speak the the contrary I would love to hear them.
 
SonaSounds
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Re: OAG Changes 3/17/2019: NK Closes CAP;UA Suspends SFO-AMS

Thu Mar 21, 2019 5:29 pm

enilria wrote:
SonaSounds wrote:
Somebody woke up on the wrong side of the bed.....

Actually, I just have the flu like everybody else I see, but despite that the flight *is* suspended. You cannot buy a ticket after that date. I don't mean to take this out on you, but this debate goes on endlessly about what is the right word to use. I used to use "cut" because it was short and then people said "cut" means permanently eliminated. Then I tried "Dropped" and got a similar reaction. The I went to "suspended" which means it *may* come back and I'm still getting these linguistic battles. At the root of it is that there is hope on the part of someone that the change doesn't mean their route is gone and I get that, but I still need to communicate in human legible English and with only a few characters. I could say "out", but I suspect the same debate ensues. So...


First of all sorry you have been feeling under the weather and I hope you feel better!

My personal recommendation would be to use the word "remove". In cases where things are unknown what is going to happen, to say "UA removes SFO-AMS" would be totally accurate and doesn't carry the implications that suspends, drops, or cuts mean. Removes can mean all of those as it still has an ambiguity to what is happening. In my personal experience in network planning that is the word we use when the future status of a route is undetermined. I am sure there will be a debate about that word as well!

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