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samuelx88
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AC and WS Lack of Flights Between Largest Canadian Areas

Mon Mar 18, 2019 2:04 pm

Here is a table of the comparison of routes within Canada for AC and WS that I made to show which directs flights are missing. Obviously, Québec city (YQB), Windsor and London (ON) are the areas that are the most deserted and neglected by both companies. This topic aims at discussing which routes should be added within key areas of Canada. In my opinion, any cities in that list should be at least directly connected to 3 major hubs of the two airlines, which is not the case for now. Which routes do you guys think should be added between cities of that list?

The upper right is for AC and the lower left is for WS

Image
Last edited by samuelx88 on Mon Mar 18, 2019 2:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
flyer233
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Re: AC and WS Lack of Flights Between Largest Canadian Areas

Mon Mar 18, 2019 2:13 pm

Halifax will be having direct flights to London ON on Swoop starting May 24

Westjet does seasonal Vancouver - Halifax in summer
 
ddp
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Re: AC and WS Lack of Flights Between Largest Canadian Areas

Mon Mar 18, 2019 2:14 pm

Why are the two sides different?

Windsor on the vertical shows red for Toronto and Montreal despite it being green on the horizontal.
Quebec City shows yellow on the vertical for Calgary and Red on the horizontal.
Edmonton shows seasonal on the vertical for Montreal, and green on the horizontal.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: AC and WS Lack of Flights Between Largest Canadian Areas

Mon Mar 18, 2019 2:14 pm

samuelx88 wrote:
In my opinion, any cities in that list should be at least directly connected to 3 major hubs of the two airlines, which is not the case for now.


So, you don't think ability to earn satisfactory return on sales or invested capital should be the determinants for which routes operate with how many seats in a deregulated market? How was your experience, Comrade, with route planning for the Soviet in the 1970s?
 
samuelx88
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Re: AC and WS Lack of Flights Between Largest Canadian Areas

Mon Mar 18, 2019 2:20 pm

ddp wrote:
Why are the two sides different?

Windsor on the vertical shows red for Toronto and Montreal despite it being green on the horizontal.
Quebec City shows yellow on the vertical for Calgary and Red on the horizontal.
Edmonton shows seasonal on the vertical for Montreal, and green on the horizontal.


It is because the upper right is for AC and the lower left is for WS
 
steveinbc
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Re: AC and WS Lack of Flights Between Largest Canadian Areas

Mon Mar 18, 2019 2:37 pm

That's a lot of work and a bit of fun to review ...thanks. I'm unsure if I'm reading incorrectly but it appears to suggest that YVR to YOW is seasonal which it isnt for either AC or WS.
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samuelx88
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Re: AC and WS Lack of Flights Between Largest Canadian Areas

Mon Mar 18, 2019 2:40 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
samuelx88 wrote:
In my opinion, any cities in that list should be at least directly connected to 3 major hubs of the two airlines, which is not the case for now.


So, you don't think ability to earn satisfactory return on sales or invested capital should be the determinants for which routes operate with how many seats in a deregulated market? How was your experience, Comrade, with route planning for the Soviet in the 1970s?


For Québec city, it is not a lack of sales return. The number of passenger at YQB increases every year and flights keep being removed. AC just wants to boost their YUL and YYZ hubs by making YQB passengers stop by it simply because there is no real concurrence. Québec city is the only market out of that list for which the economy has grown constantly for the last 25 years. This city received more tourists in 2016 than Calgary, Edmonton and Halifax. However, from what I know from living in that city is that half of the people I know choose to fly from YUL because it is usually half the price, and to avoid an extra stop. No airline tried YQB-YVR during the last 20 years (I don't know if it existed before) so they can't say that the route is not popular enough. It is not normal to have to do YQB-YYZ-YHZ-CDG with WS for such a high demand route.
 
samuelx88
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Re: AC and WS Lack of Flights Between Largest Canadian Areas

Mon Mar 18, 2019 2:45 pm

steveinbc wrote:
That's a lot of work and a bit of fun to review ...thanks. I'm unsure if I'm reading incorrectly but it appears to suggest that YVR to YOW is seasonal which it isnt for either AC or WS.


The table shows that YVR-YOW is year-round for AC and seasonal for WS (which still appears to be from late April to Octobre on Google Flights). I guess that WS could keep 3X/week on that route for winter.
 
1836Sam
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Re: AC and WS Lack of Flights Between Largest Canadian Areas

Mon Mar 18, 2019 2:50 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
samuelx88 wrote:
In my opinion, any cities in that list should be at least directly connected to 3 major hubs of the two airlines, which is not the case for now.


So, you don't think ability to earn satisfactory return on sales or invested capital should be the determinants for which routes operate with how many seats in a deregulated market? How was your experience, Comrade, with route planning for the Soviet in the 1970s?


Well that's a *bit* overboard (just a *tad*)--you could've at least kept the not-so-veiled insult to the same country considering prior historical government regulation of air service in Canada, just like in the U.S.--U.S. deregulation preceded the fall of the Soviet Union by only about a decade. The problem with the chart (I guess it's a table) is it presents all markets visually as being equal. If it was presented graphically such that the relative size of each market were shown, it would likely be a sea of green, followed by some yellow, followed by a much smaller (in area) sea of red.

samuelx88 wrote:
The number of passenger at YQB increases every year and flights keep being removed.


Well that's oxymoronic, like Yogi Berra's phrase, "That restaurant is so busy that no one goes there anymore" (or some derivative thereof).

samuelx88 wrote:
Québec city is the only market out of that list for which the economy has grown constantly for the last 25 years.


Not being a Canadian myself I'm not sure what the equivalent of the BLS is, or even if similar data are kept, but I find that very, very hard to believe.

(Something tells me you're from Quebec City.)
 
kalvado
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Re: AC and WS Lack of Flights Between Largest Canadian Areas

Mon Mar 18, 2019 2:53 pm

For east-west layout, going through central hub is not totally unreasonable. And lots of red dots are for areas on opposite sides of YYZ. Direct flight, while convenient, may not be the best economic solution.
 
Dominion301
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Re: AC and WS Lack of Flights Between Largest Canadian Areas

Mon Mar 18, 2019 3:16 pm

samuelx88 wrote:
ddp wrote:
Why are the two sides different?

Windsor on the vertical shows red for Toronto and Montreal despite it being green on the horizontal.
Quebec City shows yellow on the vertical for Calgary and Red on the horizontal.
Edmonton shows seasonal on the vertical for Montreal, and green on the horizontal.


It is because the upper right is for AC and the lower left is for WS


Cool list. So horizontal is AC and vertical is WS?

BTW, YYT-YOW on AC has been seasonal for several years now. Used to be year-round until PD stopped flying to YYT year-round. Ditto for WS on YVR-YOW. Not sure why AC YVR-YUL is yellow too.

YQB has never had YVR service. In fact, the WS seasonal flight to YYC was YQB's first ever domestic flight west of YYZ. YQB's problem has never been a lack of tourism numbers (most of whom drive from the US & Eastern/Atlantic Canada or take the train), but a lack of cultural connection with the rest of Canada. Unlike Montreal or the Outaouais, the lack of a meaningful anglophone population in Quebec City is the result of that. Porter tried seasonal YQB-YHZ for 1 summer and it never came back. AC way back in the Air Nova days had a daily DH1 on YQB-YHZ that eventually disappeared too.

As YQB and ULCCs continue to grow, along with the gradual strengthening of ties between English and French Canada, I think you'll eventually see a seasonal YQB-YVR route and maybe even YWG and YHZ too.

What puzzled me with WS' short-lived Quebec expansion is why they didn't announce YQB-YOW on a daily Q400. It's little wonder YQB-YUL failed for them as it does not have any meaningful O&D traffic, whereas AC has enjoyed near-monopoly pricing on YQB-YOW for almost 20 years now. It's quite obvious that WS don't actually do any insightful research/analysis into Eastern Canada market dynamics outside of YYZ...as evidenced by their poor ability to serve Francophones.

I'll be shocked if the just announced YXU-YUL daily Q400 lasts more than 1 summer on WS. I have no idea how WS will generate enough traffic to support this route on O&D alone. Again, YXU-YOW with higher O&D (as evidenced by AC's 2x daily to YOW vs 1 daily to YUL) would have made far more sense.
Last edited by Dominion301 on Mon Mar 18, 2019 3:39 pm, edited 7 times in total.
 
TWA85
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Re: AC and WS Lack of Flights Between Largest Canadian Areas

Mon Mar 18, 2019 3:24 pm

Opportunity for smaller airlines like Porter to develop underserved markets without directly competing with Air Canada and Westjet?
 
UADLAAUS
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Re: AC and WS Lack of Flights Between Largest Canadian Areas

Mon Mar 18, 2019 3:39 pm

This table seems to be extremely inaccurate. For example, for London, the following inconsistencies exist:
YYC - is actually year-round.
YVR - is seasonal.
YEG - is a future Swoop route.
YWG - is seasonal.

Although interesting, this table should be taken with a grain of salt.
 
COSPN
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Re: AC and WS Lack of Flights Between Largest Canadian Areas

Mon Mar 18, 2019 3:47 pm

You have to look at income .. not population the amount of people in each market that can easily afford to purchase a ticket... then if they chose to or not that is up to the market
 
BML87
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Re: AC and WS Lack of Flights Between Largest Canadian Areas

Mon Mar 18, 2019 4:48 pm

UADLAAUS wrote:
This table seems to be extremely inaccurate. For example, for London, the following inconsistencies exist:
YYC - is actually year-round.
YVR - is seasonal.
YEG - is a future Swoop route.
YWG - is seasonal.

Although interesting, this table should be taken with a grain of salt.


London-Winnipeg was cancelled.
 
BML87
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Re: AC and WS Lack of Flights Between Largest Canadian Areas

Mon Mar 18, 2019 4:49 pm

Edmonton to Ottawa and Montreal year round on WestJet would be the most logical.
 
YYZORD
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Re: AC and WS Lack of Flights Between Largest Canadian Areas

Mon Mar 18, 2019 5:23 pm

AC has mentioned that they will implement a YVR-YHZ year round route once their a220 fleet comes!
 
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kjeld0d
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Re: AC and WS Lack of Flights Between Largest Canadian Areas

Mon Mar 18, 2019 6:52 pm

UADLAAUS wrote:
This table seems to be extremely inaccurate. For example, for London, the following inconsistencies exist:
YYC - is actually year-round.
YVR - is seasonal.
YEG - is a future Swoop route.
YWG - is seasonal.

Although interesting, this table should be taken with a grain of salt.



Don't most large airlines like AC and WS have complex business intelligence software that helps them make decisions such as this?

I'm not sure what to take from it..."AC and WS are doing it wrong"? That surely explains why Flair/Canada 3000/Jetsgo/100+ others have done so well.
 
smallmj
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Re: AC and WS Lack of Flights Between Largest Canadian Areas

Mon Mar 18, 2019 7:28 pm

The sad fact is that there are only three large Canadian metropolitan areas. Montreal, Toronto, and Vancouver. Calgary, Edmonton and Ottawa are large-ish. All six of these places have year round non stop access on Air Canada, and at least seasonal non-stop on Westjet. The rest of these cities are just not big enough to warrant non-stop service to all of the other medium sized cities. Add in the fact that many cities are easy driving distance of a large one (Quebec, Hamilton, K-W, London, etc) and the fact that the populated areas of Canada are generally on an East-to-West line and offering connections at a hub makes sense.

Would I like to be able to fly YHZ-YQB like I did in the 90s? Definitely. But I've mostly accepted the fact that YHZ is too small and YQB is too close to YUL.
 
Skywatcher
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Re: AC and WS Lack of Flights Between Largest Canadian Areas

Mon Mar 18, 2019 7:55 pm

YYZ is already fully covered, YUL may work to Saskatchewan on AC, YVR and YYC are well covered. WestJet is notably weak in YOW and YUL.I think YHM belongs on the list. I doubt we'll see much change in the coming years except maybe a few seasonals becoming year round.
 
jns13
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Re: AC and WS Lack of Flights Between Largest Canadian Areas

Mon Mar 18, 2019 8:17 pm

samuelx88 wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
samuelx88 wrote:
In my opinion, any cities in that list should be at least directly connected to 3 major hubs of the two airlines, which is not the case for now.


However, from what I know from living in that city is that half of the people I know choose to fly from YUL because it is usually half the price, and to avoid an extra stop.


well there's your answer
 
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longhauler
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Re: AC and WS Lack of Flights Between Largest Canadian Areas

Mon Mar 18, 2019 9:01 pm

kjeld0d wrote:
Don't most large airlines like AC and WS have complex business intelligence software that helps them make decisions such as this?

I'm not sure what to take from it..."AC and WS are doing it wrong"? That surely explains why Flair/Canada 3000/Jetsgo/100+ others have done so well.


Exactly.

Air Canada and Westjet know precisely how many people wish to fly between A and B. Knowing that a non-stop is always the cheapest way to carry someone between A and B, thus first choice of the airline ... if they aren't, then there is your answer. There simply is not enough traffic to warrant a flight.
Just because I stopped arguing, doesn't mean I think you are right. It just means I gave up!
 
WPvsMW
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Re: AC and WS Lack of Flights Between Largest Canadian Areas

Tue Mar 19, 2019 4:12 am

Any particular reason (other than yield) that Westjet serves so little of W. Canada from Montreal?
 
CAPTYXU
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Re: AC and WS Lack of Flights Between Largest Canadian Areas

Tue Mar 19, 2019 12:09 pm

WestJet tried out of Quebec but it just didnt work out. There is a loyal customer base for Air Canada out of Montreal where AC is headquartered and WestJet was unable to penetrate the market and ended up with flights with very few passengers and was a money losing venture. I think part of the problem was the fact that there was no advertising in Quebec and the general public didnt know a whole lot about the services offered by WestJet
 
ac33e
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Re: AC and WS Lack of Flights Between Largest Canadian Areas

Tue Mar 19, 2019 12:21 pm

AC aims to protect its 3 hubs. Although this may have passed by unnoticed, YYC used to be considered a hub but has been removed in the past 1-2 years. Slowly but surely, they are leaving it to WS by not doing much.
 
Dominion301
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Re: AC and WS Lack of Flights Between Largest Canadian Areas

Tue Mar 19, 2019 12:33 pm

CAPTYXU wrote:
WestJet tried out of Quebec but it just didnt work out. There is a loyal customer base for Air Canada out of Montreal where AC is headquartered and WestJet was unable to penetrate the market and ended up with flights with very few passengers and was a money losing venture. I think part of the problem was the fact that there was no advertising in Quebec and the general public didnt know a whole lot about the services offered by WestJet


It was utterly bone-headed to try and fly YQB-YUL 4x daily on a route with very little O&D traffic and very little onward service at YUL to connect to (not to mention zero onward connections at YQB, unlike AC that do have onward service at YQB to places like YZV, YGP, etc.). 1x daily to feed YUL-west flights (which they themselves would need to be timed right) could have worked. Again why WS would fly that instead of trying a daily YQB-YOW up against AC's near-monopoly and sky-high fares is head scratching. Much easier to stimulate traffic on a 500km route than a 300km route. Just shows the airline of the west doesn't put much effort into understanding market dynamics in the three large cities in this country with significant francophone populations, namely YQB, YOW and YUL.

Again, I'm scratching my head at them announcing YUL-YXU relying about 95% on O&D traffic while using a larger than AC uses on the route to boot! What do WS know that AC don't? Why do that when you could launch a daily YYZ-YQG with the same aircraft and turn YQG into a year-round station with connections to your entire eastern network? Jimbo would probably say that I don't know what I'm talking about though. Hell even YXU-YOW would be better as it clearly has more O&D than YXU-YUL.

WPvsMW wrote:
Any particular reason (other than yield) that Westjet serves so little of W. Canada from Montreal?


Is it yield or is it WS' need to keep capacity in check to fuel their Flair-busting Swoop operations at YHM? Amazing eh how WS can fly 11x weekly YHM-YEG and 7x weekly YHM-YXX, yet apparently there's no demand (or yield) for YUL-YEG or YOW-YEG or YUL-YVR or YOW-YVR this winter....or YUL-YWG or more than 1x daily YUL-YYC. Apparently YHM's become a yield gold mine.

@samuelx88: You need to add Hamilton and Kitchener-Waterloo to your list. Both those cities are much larger than several within your list.
 
samuelx88
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Re: AC and WS Lack of Flights Between Largest Canadian Areas

Tue Mar 19, 2019 2:51 pm

Dominion301 wrote:
@samuelx88: You need to add Hamilton and Kitchener-Waterloo to your list. Both those cities are much larger than several within your list.


I thought about adding them, however, I finally decided that the requirement for a city to be on that list is that areas that are too close to each other are not shown when there is no flight between each other. For example, there is no flight from Hamilton to Toronto, so only Toronto is shown. However, London (ON) is far enough to have flight to Toronto. This is the same reason why Abbotsford is not on that list. When both cities are close enough to not have flight between each other, usually it means that people drive to the airport they want to depart from.

Btw, I will keep the table updated if any of you find a mistake and to have an accurate and quick way to see the progress of adding new connections within Canada. I can also make another table but sorted by the number of passengers in each area's airport.
 
samuelx88
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Re: AC and WS Lack of Flights Between Largest Canadian Areas

Tue Mar 19, 2019 3:05 pm

smallmj wrote:
the fact that the populated areas of Canada are generally on an East-to-West line and offering connections at a hub makes sense.


The problem with this is that often, the passenger's final destination is not Canada. Let's take the example of someone in Québec City wanting to go to Australia. Instead of just doing YQB-YVR-SYD, this passenger has to do YQB-YYZ-YVR-SYD on AC or WS. The same situation occurs for going to Chinese destinations not available from YYZ. It can also make Chinese tourists change their mind about visiting Québec City since there are too much stops to do. 1 stop is okay but 2 or 3 is too much. The same situation also occurs for French tourists wanting to visit their family in Québec city using Air France codeshares. They have to do CDG-YYZ-YQB (going west and then coming back east), CDG-YUL-YYZ-YQB or even CDG-YHZ-YYZ-YQB on WS. This is probably the reason why AF has a 3-hours bus shuttle from YQB to YUL due to the lack of WS flights from YQB. However, this problem does not occur for every smaller cities than Québec city (except Windsor) on that list.
 
yeginleduc
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Re: AC and WS Lack of Flights Between Largest Canadian Areas

Tue Mar 19, 2019 5:32 pm

YQB-YUL is taken care of nicely with VIA Rail. Its one of the very few markets in Canada where you can use rail travel instead of plane travel as the time is about the same factoring in all the waiting at airports.
 
ytz
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Re: AC and WS Lack of Flights Between Largest Canadian Areas

Wed Mar 20, 2019 11:17 am

smallmj wrote:
The sad fact is that there are only three large Canadian metropolitan areas. Montreal, Toronto, and Vancouver. Calgary, Edmonton and Ottawa are large-ish. All six of these places have year round non stop access on Air Canada, and at least seasonal non-stop on Westjet. The rest of these cities are just not big enough to warrant non-stop service to all of the other medium sized cities. Add in the fact that many cities are easy driving distance of a large one (Quebec, Hamilton, K-W, London, etc) and the fact that the populated areas of Canada are generally on an East-to-West line and offering connections at a hub makes sense.

Would I like to be able to fly YHZ-YQB like I did in the 90s? Definitely. But I've mostly accepted the fact that YHZ is too small and YQB is too close to YUL.


Most Canadians don't realize how small Canadian cities are in the wider context. The big 3 aside, the second tier of Ottawa, Calgary and Edmonton are all around 1.3 million in metro area population. This would barely put them in the 50 largest cities in the US. They are comparable to cities like Raleigh, Memphis, New Orleans and Richmond. These cities don't see a ton of mainline traffic. And cities the size of London, ON would only see a handful of RJs a day in the US anyway.

Combine the demographics with the fact that Canadian GDP/capita is 25% lower, aviation is heavily taxed in Canada and recieves less government support and basically Canadian cities act like American cities that are about 250k smaller when it comes to commercial air traffic. We probably have less cargo traffic too since online shopping is less popular/feasible in Canada.

Given the state of aviation, I'm a strong proponent of rail. Even if wasn't high speed rail. Something like VIA's Dedicated Tracks project would do wonders for travel options. YOW and YUL would effectively be one market. And YOW-YTZ would be competitive with flying for m most travelers. Would make cities like London and KW far more accessible to YYZ. Would make YQB far more accessible from Montreal. Really useful for non-*A pax. Likewise, in the west. Get a train that's decent enough between YEG and YYC and travelers get a lot more options. Real rail investment is the only thing that will create options and keep the pressure on fares.
 
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Zkpilot
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Re: AC and WS Lack of Flights Between Largest Canadian Areas

Wed Mar 20, 2019 1:05 pm

Not as big as the others but I'm still surprised that WS doesn't serve YVR-YKA (at least seasonally for the ski market).
64 types. 45 countries. 24 airlines.
 
upperdeckfan
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Re: AC and WS Lack of Flights Between Largest Canadian Areas

Wed Mar 20, 2019 1:40 pm

samuelx88 wrote:
smallmj wrote:
the fact that the populated areas of Canada are generally on an East-to-West line and offering connections at a hub makes sense.


The problem with this is that often, the passenger's final destination is not Canada. Let's take the example of someone in Québec City wanting to go to Australia. Instead of just doing YQB-YVR-SYD, this passenger has to do YQB-YYZ-YVR-SYD on AC or WS. The same situation occurs for going to Chinese destinations not available from YYZ. It can also make Chinese tourists change their mind about visiting Québec City since there are too much stops to do. 1 stop is okay but 2 or 3 is too much. The same situation also occurs for French tourists wanting to visit their family in Québec city using Air France codeshares. They have to do CDG-YYZ-YQB (going west and then coming back east), CDG-YUL-YYZ-YQB or even CDG-YHZ-YYZ-YQB on WS. This is probably the reason why AF has a 3-hours bus shuttle from YQB to YUL due to the lack of WS flights from YQB. However, this problem does not occur for every smaller cities than Québec city (except Windsor) on that list.


Do you know how many European metro areas the size of Quebec City are linked to Australia on one-stop? Quebec City metro area is not even a million people, please put that on a global context.

Do you really think asian tourism to Quebec City would sustain a YQB-YVR link? Would be good to know YQB-YVR O&D traffic figures

Do you realize all your examples are about the lowest yield traffic (leisure and VFR)? How much business/hig yield traffic can be expected out of YQB?
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ac33e
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Re: AC and WS Lack of Flights Between Largest Canadian Areas

Wed Mar 20, 2019 2:40 pm

upperdeckfan wrote:
samuelx88 wrote:
smallmj wrote:
the fact that the populated areas of Canada are generally on an East-to-West line and offering connections at a hub makes sense.


The problem with this is that often, the passenger's final destination is not Canada. Let's take the example of someone in Québec City wanting to go to Australia. Instead of just doing YQB-YVR-SYD, this passenger has to do YQB-YYZ-YVR-SYD on AC or WS. The same situation occurs for going to Chinese destinations not available from YYZ. It can also make Chinese tourists change their mind about visiting Québec City since there are too much stops to do. 1 stop is okay but 2 or 3 is too much. The same situation also occurs for French tourists wanting to visit their family in Québec city using Air France codeshares. They have to do CDG-YYZ-YQB (going west and then coming back east), CDG-YUL-YYZ-YQB or even CDG-YHZ-YYZ-YQB on WS. This is probably the reason why AF has a 3-hours bus shuttle from YQB to YUL due to the lack of WS flights from YQB. However, this problem does not occur for every smaller cities than Québec city (except Windsor) on that list.


Do you know how many European metro areas the size of Quebec City are linked to Australia on one-stop? Quebec City metro area is not even a million people, please put that on a global context.

Do you really think asian tourism to Quebec City would sustain a YQB-YVR link? Would be good to know YQB-YVR O&D traffic figures

Do you realize all your examples are about the lowest yield traffic (leisure and VFR)? How much business/hig yield traffic can be expected out of YQB?


The only reason these European cities are linked to Australia is because of QR/EK/EY. Just to sustain your point, how much volume is there between Pisa/Gothenburg and Sydney/Melbourne ...
 
Skywatcher
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Re: AC and WS Lack of Flights Between Largest Canadian Areas

Wed Mar 20, 2019 2:49 pm

As much as I appreciate Samuelx88's desire for more domestic service from YQB I'm afraid that cultural behavior will need to change first. Most of the people in YQB are government workers who have no business ties outside Quebec. When they do fly they tend to go to Ft.Lauderdale (many French speaking facilities), Cuba or France. There is little connection to the rest of Canada or the U.S. outside of Florida. The same works in reverse, other than a few skiers or partiers for Carnivale there really are very few visitors to YQB from the rest of Canada., especially the west. Many people from the rest of Canada are afraid they'll be mistreated because of their lack of French. It may not be true but that's how they feel after all the issues in prior decades.
 
samuelx88
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Re: AC and WS Lack of Flights Between Largest Canadian Areas

Wed Mar 20, 2019 3:06 pm

upperdeckfan wrote:
Do you really think asian tourism to Quebec City would sustain a YQB-YVR link? Would be good to know YQB-YVR O&D traffic figures


I've checked the number for YQB. In 2018, 40 000 passengers from China (not counting Québec city people going to China), 100% yearly increase of tourist from Korea and 5000 pax from YQB to Hawaii airports. This means that at least 45 000 pax per year (on one direction) could transit by YVR instead of YQB-YYZ-YVR-final destination. As a comparison, only 14 500 pax did YQB-ORD and still, there is 3x per days on that route. WS and AC could remove 1 flight a day to YYZ and add 3x a week to YVR instead. Or even 1x a week YQB-YVR on a AC A319 would be better than nothing.
 
Dominion301
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Re: AC and WS Lack of Flights Between Largest Canadian Areas

Wed Mar 20, 2019 8:16 pm

samuelx88 wrote:
upperdeckfan wrote:
Do you really think asian tourism to Quebec City would sustain a YQB-YVR link? Would be good to know YQB-YVR O&D traffic figures


I've checked the number for YQB. In 2018, 40 000 passengers from China (not counting Québec city people going to China), 100% yearly increase of tourist from Korea and 5000 pax from YQB to Hawaii airports. This means that at least 45 000 pax per year (on one direction) could transit by YVR instead of YQB-YYZ-YVR-final destination. As a comparison, only 14 500 pax did YQB-ORD and still, there is 3x per days on that route. WS and AC could remove 1 flight a day to YYZ and add 3x a week to YVR instead. Or even 1x a week YQB-YVR on a AC A319 would be better than nothing.


Is that 40,000 Chinese visitors to Quebec City or 40,000 O&D YQB-China pax? It must be the former as 40k O&D pax is more along the lines of what YEG and YOW currently have to China annually. While YQB-ORD's O&D numbers are only 14.5k annually, filling 3 RJs a day with tonnes of onward connections isn't hard. YQB-China though is a pipe dream. YOW will be the next airport to get China service, which itself won't be for several years, followed by YEG. I can't see any smaller airport ever get China service (not counting freighter service to YHZ).

As for YVR, AC don't have a single domestic summer seasonal route that operates less than 3x weekly. I'd say YQB's best bet for a YVR link is Jetlines assuming they ever get off the ground and somehow manage to survive the next five years, let alone to the end of 2019...I hope I'm proven wrong by them.
 
samuelx88
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Re: AC and WS Lack of Flights Between Largest Canadian Areas

Wed Mar 20, 2019 11:59 pm

Dominion301 wrote:
samuelx88 wrote:
upperdeckfan wrote:
Do you really think asian tourism to Quebec City would sustain a YQB-YVR link? Would be good to know YQB-YVR O&D traffic figures


I've checked the number for YQB. In 2018, 40 000 passengers from China (not counting Québec city people going to China), 100% yearly increase of tourist from Korea and 5000 pax from YQB to Hawaii airports. This means that at least 45 000 pax per year (on one direction) could transit by YVR instead of YQB-YYZ-YVR-final destination. As a comparison, only 14 500 pax did YQB-ORD and still, there is 3x per days on that route. WS and AC could remove 1 flight a day to YYZ and add 3x a week to YVR instead. Or even 1x a week YQB-YVR on a AC A319 would be better than nothing.


Is that 40,000 Chinese visitors to Quebec City or 40,000 O&D YQB-China pax? It must be the former as 40k O&D pax is more along the lines of what YEG and YOW currently have to China annually. While YQB-ORD's O&D numbers are only 14.5k annually, filling 3 RJs a day with tonnes of onward connections isn't hard. YQB-China though is a pipe dream. YOW will be the next airport to get China service, which itself won't be for several years, followed by YEG. I can't see any smaller airport ever get China service (not counting freighter service to YHZ).


I've taken the number from an article saying that YUL went from 15 000 pax from China (before having direct flight) to 170 000 in 2018. Then, I found on Quebec gov. website that 23% of chinese tourists land in Québec city out of the province total. I then did the calculations. It would not surprise me that YQB has more Chinese tourists than YEG since there is about 1 million more tourists a year in Québec city. I am not saying that a direct flight to China from YQB would be working, I just mean that AC and WS should make them transit only once by YVR instead. Last year, AC upgraded flights from YQB to YYZ and YUL to AC Rouge A320s instead of Dash 8 because of Chinese large group of tourists needing to be put on the same plane to go to Quebec city. So the demand is probably large enough. YOW definitely deserves a direct flight to China before YQB, I agree with that.
 
upperdeckfan
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Re: AC and WS Lack of Flights Between Largest Canadian Areas

Thu Mar 21, 2019 9:57 am

samuelx88 wrote:
YOW definitely deserves a direct flight to China before YQB, I agree with that.


Civil aviation is not an NPO, airlines networks are not a matter of cities "deserving" it. If Quebec City wants a non-stop link to YVR or mainland China then they can offer subsidies to AC/WS, local authorities do that all over the world although IMO there are much better uses for taxpayers funds.

Otherwise seems like AC and WS have other markets/priorities with better potential for profit. Funneling traffic from western Canada to Quebec City through YYZ is good enough for them.
748,744,742,741,772,773,762,763,
764, 789, 732,733,735,737,738,739,
752, 722, 717,74M,DC10,DC9,M82,
M83, M87, M88,310,319,320,321,332,
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CR7, CR9,CRK, E175,E190,ATR42,
DSH8, CS1,CS3
 
YYZORD
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Re: AC and WS Lack of Flights Between Largest Canadian Areas

Thu Mar 21, 2019 6:46 pm

YQB is now linked to AKL one stop through ORD so tbh it's not as bad.

upperdeckfan wrote:
samuelx88 wrote:
smallmj wrote:
the fact that the populated areas of Canada are generally on an East-to-West line and offering connections at a hub makes sense.


The problem with this is that often, the passenger's final destination is not Canada. Let's take the example of someone in Québec City wanting to go to Australia. Instead of just doing YQB-YVR-SYD, this passenger has to do YQB-YYZ-YVR-SYD on AC or WS. The same situation occurs for going to Chinese destinations not available from YYZ. It can also make Chinese tourists change their mind about visiting Québec City since there are too much stops to do. 1 stop is okay but 2 or 3 is too much. The same situation also occurs for French tourists wanting to visit their family in Québec city using Air France codeshares. They have to do CDG-YYZ-YQB (going west and then coming back east), CDG-YUL-YYZ-YQB or even CDG-YHZ-YYZ-YQB on WS. This is probably the reason why AF has a 3-hours bus shuttle from YQB to YUL due to the lack of WS flights from YQB. However, this problem does not occur for every smaller cities than Québec city (except Windsor) on that list.


Do you know how many European metro areas the size of Quebec City are linked to Australia on one-stop? Quebec City metro area is not even a million people, please put that on a global context.

Do you really think asian tourism to Quebec City would sustain a YQB-YVR link? Would be good to know YQB-YVR O&D traffic figures

Do you realize all your examples are about the lowest yield traffic (leisure and VFR)? How much business/hig yield traffic can be expected out of YQB?
 
upperdeckfan
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Re: AC and WS Lack of Flights Between Largest Canadian Areas

Thu Mar 21, 2019 9:17 pm

Good catch lol
748,744,742,741,772,773,762,763,
764, 789, 732,733,735,737,738,739,
752, 722, 717,74M,DC10,DC9,M82,
M83, M87, M88,310,319,320,321,332,
333, 343, 346,359,388,L1011,CR2,
CR7, CR9,CRK, E175,E190,ATR42,
DSH8, CS1,CS3
 
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OA940
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Re: AC and WS Lack of Flights Between Largest Canadian Areas

Thu Mar 21, 2019 9:44 pm

Because they prefer to make money? May not be ideal, but that's how businesses work. I'd like a non-stop ATH-YUL/YYZ year round, but the market apparently doesn't work like that. And lemme tell you that the only reason Aegean is flying to the smaller Greek airports is because it helps with utilization. Same thing applies here, only instead of two 40-minute flights with a half hour turnaround you're talking about two 4-hour flights plus the turnaround (in some cases). They'd be better off serving a US airport from their hubs, which can make more money due to connecting traffic. That's just how it is. It's not ideal for all of us, but it beats the alternative of having airlines go bankrupt left and right.
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