YouGeeElWhy
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When are we going to have a Virtual Pilot?

Wed Mar 20, 2019 10:09 pm

I see a lot of talk about better remote telemetry or in-cabin video or whatever, but why not just a virtual pilot?

Over the coming years, you will have very capable (low latency, high bandwidth) LEO satellite-based internet. This is the idea behind self-drive cars that if they get "stuck" a person can take over via remote. It could just start off as remote eyes to debug problems the flight crews encounter (not unlike that Lion Air jump seat pilot that saved the plane before it went down), but there is no reason (long term) those remote hands could not take over if a flight crew became incapacitated and maybe it would even enable using a single pilot. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
 
barney captain
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Re: When are we going to have a Virtual Pilot?

Wed Mar 20, 2019 10:39 pm

When are we going to stop bringing this up nearly every other day?
Southeast Of Disorder
 
739er
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Re: When are we going to have a Virtual Pilot?

Wed Mar 20, 2019 10:48 pm

How would Captain Virtual handle a loss of all engines right after takeoff from LGA with 155 souls on board and seconds to make a decision?...Or, a loss of all hydraulics and subsequent loss of all flight controls near Sioux City, Iowa with 296 souls on board with no checklist, procedure, or training for such an event. These kinds of things and much more do happen in commercial aviation. Just because ‘it can be done’ doesn’t make it something I’m willing to bet my family’s lives on. Are you?
 
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jaybird
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Re: When are we going to have a Virtual Pilot?

Wed Mar 20, 2019 10:59 pm

Hopefully never. I don't want Hal flying my plane .. :-)
 
Moosefire
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Re: When are we going to have a Virtual Pilot?

Wed Mar 20, 2019 10:59 pm

Seriously there was just a post on this two days ago
MD-11F/C-17A Pilot
 
KarlB737
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Re: When are we going to have a Virtual Pilot?

Wed Mar 20, 2019 11:01 pm

YouGeeElWhy wrote:
why not just a virtual pilot?


I heard the CEO of Delta airlines recently say he wouldn't fly on an airliner in that fashion. I wouldn't either. Regarding driverless cars no thank you to that as well.
 
StormRider
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Re: When are we going to have a Virtual Pilot?

Wed Mar 20, 2019 11:16 pm

jaybird wrote:
Hopefully never. I don't want Hal flying my plane .. :-)

you don't want to become a starchild? ;-)

also literally same thread elsewhere....
on topic, why do people seem to think virtual/autonomous/AI will be better at stuff like this than humans or humans+computers together doing it?
maybe one day, but not right now (although SpaceX Dragon capsule will prove me wrong soon...but cars on roads or planes is very different to flying a rocket to ISS)
 
Kilopond
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Re: When are we going to have a Virtual Pilot?

Wed Mar 20, 2019 11:45 pm

Very reasonable projections of future progress that are older than half a century or so havn‘t become true yet.

Copied and pasted from a certain public domain online encyclopedia:

The paperless world was a publicist's slogan, intended to describe the office of the future. It was facilitated by the popularization of video display computer terminals like the 1964 IBM 2260. An early prediction of the paperless office was made in a 1975 Business Week article.
 
EC135C
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Re: When are we going to have a Virtual Pilot?

Thu Mar 21, 2019 12:16 am

Prolly about the time we can get rid of air traffic controllers as they currently operate.
 
DashTrash
Posts: 1300
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Re: When are we going to have a Virtual Pilot?

Thu Mar 21, 2019 12:29 am

739er wrote:
How would Captain Virtual handle a loss of all engines right after takeoff from LGA with 155 souls on board and seconds to make a decision?...Or, a loss of all hydraulics and subsequent loss of all flight controls near Sioux City, Iowa with 296 souls on board with no checklist, procedure, or training for such an event. These kinds of things and much more do happen in commercial aviation. Just because ‘it can be done’ doesn’t make it something I’m willing to bet my family’s lives on. Are you?

Absolutely. In some cases we have to fly the airplane by feel, sound, other cues not available to someone who isn’t in the aircraft.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
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CLTRampRat
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Re: When are we going to have a Virtual Pilot?

Thu Mar 21, 2019 12:42 am

What if it already exists and the kids who play Infinite Flight are in some sort of Enders Game scenario where the simulation is actually real. That would explain Southwest overrunning the runways so much.
 
Amsterdam
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Re: When are we going to have a Virtual Pilot?

Thu Mar 21, 2019 12:47 am

Those people could crash the aeroplanes and not get hurt themselfs.
 
YouGeeElWhy
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Re: When are we going to have a Virtual Pilot?

Thu Mar 21, 2019 2:54 am

Hmmm, there seem to be some reading comprehension issues here. Anyways the idea is remote eyes that could help the people on the flight deck if there are unique conditions that they cannot solve themselves. Whether people like it or not there will be more planes flying with less trained crews and the machines they pilot will become more complex, so the probability of conditions arising that could lead to failure will be higher.

You will and are today putting your lives in the hands of automated machines where all of the processing and decision making lies at the edge of the system. Whatever fault happens must be solved there without any back up. In computing system design that would be a loser all day everyday.
 
 
ferminbrif
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Re: When are we going to have a Virtual Pilot?

Thu Mar 21, 2019 3:33 am

    Technically, it´s possible as of today. Nevertheless, nobody would like to fly or feel safe onboard. They are essential because machines can fail.
    Do you remember: Air Transat Flight 236, Air Canada Flight 143 better known as Gimli Glider and US Airways Flight 1549?.
    Human touch (Pilots) marked the difference
     
    tys777
    Moderator
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    Re: When are we going to have a Virtual Pilot?

    Thu Mar 21, 2019 4:04 am

    ferminbrif wrote:
      Technically, it´s possible as of today. Nevertheless, nobody would like to fly or feel safe onboard. They are essential because machines can fail.
      Do you remember: Air Transat Flight 236, Air Canada Flight 143 better known as Gimli Glider and US Airways Flight 1549?.
      Human touch (Pilots) marked the difference


      Wheren't the Air Transit and Air Canada largely human error. Air Transit in not switching off the cross feed when he didn't know the cause of the discrepancies(could be wrong) and then Air Canada when someone failed with Imperial to Metric conversions on the relatively new 767(albeit that was preflight)?

      My point? Human error causes plenty of issues in it's own right. AI and automation has much lower error rates than their human counterparts and able to male decisions quicker. Is flying a plane the correct application? Not with passengers, but I could see automated drones in many applications where the risk is inherently lower.
       
      c933103
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      Re: When are we going to have a Virtual Pilot?

      Thu Mar 21, 2019 4:10 am

      You cannot remote control an aircraft if the problem occurred also affect the electrical system of the aircraft. So it will never occur even when we have autonomous aircrafts
      Say NO to Hong Kong police's cooperation with criminal organizations like triad.
       
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      SierraPacific
      Posts: 276
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      Re: When are we going to have a Virtual Pilot?

      Thu Mar 21, 2019 4:25 am

      Short Answer never


      Long answer the connection would have to be 100 percent secure to prevent hackings (never will happen, now you are paying 3 people instead of two (makes no business sense, and lastly introduced a third person that could easily kill every person aboard without killing themselves

      Airplanes are meant to be flown by two professionals and every other idea besides this is simply a nonstarter until an AI is developed that can match human reasoning in the far future (then the economy would crash before this AI would ever touch a jet). I think that the forum has some sort of fetish to making 600,000 people unemployed but it won't happen in anyone on this forums lifetime.
       
      emuwarveteran
      Posts: 139
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      Re: When are we going to have a Virtual Pilot?

      Thu Mar 21, 2019 5:36 am

      CLTRampRat wrote:
      What if it already exists and the kids who play Infinite Flight are in some sort of Enders Game scenario where the simulation is actually real. That would explain Southwest overrunning the runways so much.


      "Mom look i'm doing loops!"
      "That's nice honey, now come eat dinner"
      explosion appears in the distance
      CL CRJ9, W6 A320
       
      VV
      Posts: 780
      Joined: Sat Feb 13, 2016 1:03 pm

      Re: When are we going to have a Virtual Pilot?

      Thu Mar 21, 2019 5:53 am

      It is certainly possible to introduce a kind of pilot assistant into the cockpit.

      There's a recent discussion about it in a blog.
       
      eidvm
      Posts: 74
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      Re: When are we going to have a Virtual Pilot?

      Thu Mar 21, 2019 11:01 am

      And how would this autonomous virtual pilot deal with something like MCAS, where the design of the aircraft is such that the virtual pilot itself, decides to keep lowering the nose until it crashes.

      If the most modern airliner in the world can have a system so badly designed that it’ll happily crash the airplane into the ground, then I’ve little hope for seeing autonomous airliners in the next 50 years.
       
      oldannyboy
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      Re: When are we going to have a Virtual Pilot?

      Thu Mar 21, 2019 11:05 am

      YouGeeElWhy wrote:
      I see a lot of talk about better remote telemetry or in-cabin video or whatever, but why not just a virtual pilot?



      Yeah, just wait for the new MAX to re-enter service. Last I heard Boeing is going full power on a new software that eliminates pilots altogether. :ugeek:
       
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      tjwgrr
      Posts: 2405
      Joined: Fri Mar 24, 2000 4:09 am

      Re: When are we going to have a Virtual Pilot?

      Thu Mar 21, 2019 12:53 pm

      YouGeeElWhy wrote:
      I see a lot of talk about better remote telemetry or in-cabin video or whatever, but why not just a virtual pilot?

      Over the coming years, you will have very capable (low latency, high bandwidth) LEO satellite-based internet. This is the idea behind self-drive cars that if they get "stuck" a person can take over via remote. It could just start off as remote eyes to debug problems the flight crews encounter (not unlike that Lion Air jump seat pilot that saved the plane before it went down), but there is no reason (long term) those remote hands could not take over if a flight crew became incapacitated and maybe it would even enable using a single pilot. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯


      There's always Otto Pilot

      Image
      Direct KNOBS, maintain 2700' until established on the localizer, cleared ILS runway 26 left approach.
       
      YouGeeElWhy
      Topic Author
      Posts: 411
      Joined: Sat Feb 01, 2014 3:42 pm

      Re: When are we going to have a Virtual Pilot?

      Thu Mar 21, 2019 2:59 pm

      VV wrote:
      It is certainly possible to introduce a kind of pilot assistant into the cockpit.

      There's a recent discussion about it in a blog.
      Thank you for reading and understanding the question. The rest do not seem to understand basic reading.

      SierraPacific wrote:
      now you are paying 3
      That is not how these types of systems work. The 3rd/4th/5th/6th set of eyes is activated when there is an emergency. They are not always on. A small team (<100) could do this.


      SierraPacific wrote:
      Airplanes are meant to be flown by two professionals and every other idea besides this is simply a nonstarter until an AI is developed that can match human reasoning in the far future (then the economy would crash before this AI would ever touch a jet). I think that the forum has some sort of fetish to making 600,000 people unemployed but it won't happen in anyone on this forums lifetime.
      the basic suggestion is to augment those 600K pilots because in a decade years you are going to have 1M pilots then 1.5M, etc... These new pilots will be less trained with more complex machines.
       
      Cactusjuba
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      Re: When are we going to have a Virtual Pilot?

      Thu Mar 21, 2019 4:37 pm

      When I'm dealing with a No-Time crisis, I likely have the airplane screaming at me, CA/FO delegating to handle the crisis, and potentially ATC inquiring my attention. You want to throw some non-PIC voice from HQ over the loud speaker "sir did you try restarting your CPU?". That would be a human factor nightmare. Too many cooks in the kitchen. If it's an emergency without guidance and we have time, we'll call and talk to MX control.

      The time it takes for those present in the cockpit to gain situational awareness and react appropriately is usually quick. You think having a desk pilot who suddenly gets an alarm to get linked into a feed will quickly be ready to assist? No. He/she will then take quite a bit of time to access all the information and make a judgment. They'll be totally out of the loop. The whole reason the jumpseater helped in LionAir was because his brain was in the cockpit, not a call center. And if they're always watching to gain SA, they're just a virtual flight engineer. Not needed, not economical. Just design airplanes properly for human factors. And train crews to identify and respond to immediate action items.
       
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      BirdBrain
      Posts: 99
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      Re: When are we going to have a Virtual Pilot?

      Thu Mar 21, 2019 5:10 pm

      oldannyboy wrote:
      Yeah, just wait for the new MAX to re-enter service. Last I heard Boeing is going full power on a new software that eliminates pilots altogether. :ugeek:


      I had to pick myself off the floor after reading this. You have won the internet for today!
      :rotfl:
       
      VV
      Posts: 780
      Joined: Sat Feb 13, 2016 1:03 pm

      Re: When are we going to have a Virtual Pilot?

      Thu Mar 21, 2019 8:25 pm

      YouGeeElWhy wrote:
      VV wrote:
      It is certainly possible to introduce a kind of pilot assistant into the cockpit.

      There's a recent discussion about it in a blog.
      Thank you for reading and understanding the question. The rest do not seem to understand basic reading.


      I still do not understand why there has not been any computer assistant in the cockpit. It is certainly possible to have a kind of monitor that follows the flight parameters and then fly a virtual aircraft in the aircraft. For example a computer program could estimate or approximate air speed based on different inputs (GPS, static pressure, alpha, inertial data etc) and also in different manners (GPS speed, GPS altitude, last validated wind speed, inertial data etc) such that when something goes wrong it is detected quickly.

      Since the assistant would have all sort of data from difference sources, it might be able to propose some options to the pilot. The system does not need to take control of the aircraft. What I would expect is that the digital assistant gives good indications of what to do.

      I do not understand why you ask a pilot to solve a problem when the situation is not good. The pilot does not necessarily have all the information he/she needs. He might have forgotten things or he might be under immense stress. A computer program does not sweat.

      It is not very rationale to ask the pilot to control the aircraft manually without any help, for example when the airspeed becomes unreliable or when the alpha probe is sending wrong signal.

      My point is, it is certainly possible to think about an advisory digital pilot assistant in the cockpit that does not control the aircraft, but continuously monitor everything from flight dynamic perspective. It could potentially provide the right procedure page from the AFM or FCOM to be executed by the pilot in the identified situation.

      Potentially such a system could also monitor the aircraft condition in a broader scope.

      There is a discussion on this subject in my blog on March 19, 2019. Most of the content is already summarized above, but there are interesting comments from several readers too.
       
      Cactusjuba
      Posts: 175
      Joined: Thu Dec 14, 2017 8:06 am

      Re: When are we going to have a Virtual Pilot?

      Thu Mar 21, 2019 10:49 pm

      VV wrote:
      YouGeeElWhy wrote:
      VV wrote:
      It is certainly possible to introduce a kind of pilot assistant into the cockpit.

      There's a recent discussion about it in a blog.
      Thank you for reading and understanding the question. The rest do not seem to understand basic reading.


      I still do not understand why there has not been any computer assistant in the cockpit. It is certainly possible to have a kind of monitor that follows the flight parameters and then fly a virtual aircraft in the aircraft. For example a computer program could estimate or approximate air speed based on different inputs (GPS, static pressure, alpha, inertial data etc) and also in different manners (GPS speed, GPS altitude, last validated wind speed, inertial data etc) such that when something goes wrong it is detected quickly.

      Since the assistant would have all sort of data from difference sources, it might be able to propose some options to the pilot. The system does not need to take control of the aircraft. What I would expect is that the digital assistant gives good indications of what to do.

      I do not understand why you ask a pilot to solve a problem when the situation is not good. The pilot does not necessarily have all the information he/she needs. He might have forgotten things or he might be under immense stress. A computer program does not sweat.

      It is not very rationale to ask the pilot to control the aircraft manually without any help, for example when the airspeed becomes unreliable or when the alpha probe is sending wrong signal.

      My point is, it is certainly possible to think about an advisory digital pilot assistant in the cockpit that does not control the aircraft, but continuously monitor everything from flight dynamic perspective. It could potentially provide the right procedure page from the AFM or FCOM to be executed by the pilot in the identified situation.

      Potentially such a system could also monitor the aircraft condition in a broader scope.

      There is a discussion on this subject in my blog on March 19, 2019. Most of the content is already summarized above, but there are interesting comments from several readers too.


      What you’re referring to already exists. A Flight Warning Computer can give advisories and warnings in an audible, visual and textual format to pilots with flight guidance on the instruments. Issues like steep bank angle, stall, configuration, terrain, wind shear, traffic, over speed, glide slope, etc. And equipment and instrument failures too. ECAMs on Airbus do like you say, “provide the right procedure page from the AFM or FCOM to be executed by the pilot in the identified situation.” They are onboard electronic abnormal checklists that detect the issue, provide the checklist on a display, then automatically checks off each task as it detects it completed.
       
      VV
      Posts: 780
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      Re: When are we going to have a Virtual Pilot?

      Thu Mar 21, 2019 11:14 pm

      Cactusjuba wrote:
      VV wrote:
      YouGeeElWhy wrote:
      Thank you for reading and understanding the question. The rest do not seem to understand basic reading.


      I still do not understand why there has not been any computer assistant in the cockpit. It is certainly possible to have a kind of monitor that follows the flight parameters and then fly a virtual aircraft in the aircraft. For example a computer program could estimate or approximate air speed based on different inputs (GPS, static pressure, alpha, inertial data etc) and also in different manners (GPS speed, GPS altitude, last validated wind speed, inertial data etc) such that when something goes wrong it is detected quickly.

      Since the assistant would have all sort of data from difference sources, it might be able to propose some options to the pilot. The system does not need to take control of the aircraft. What I would expect is that the digital assistant gives good indications of what to do.

      I do not understand why you ask a pilot to solve a problem when the situation is not good. The pilot does not necessarily have all the information he/she needs. He might have forgotten things or he might be under immense stress. A computer program does not sweat.

      It is not very rationale to ask the pilot to control the aircraft manually without any help, for example when the airspeed becomes unreliable or when the alpha probe is sending wrong signal.

      My point is, it is certainly possible to think about an advisory digital pilot assistant in the cockpit that does not control the aircraft, but continuously monitor everything from flight dynamic perspective. It could potentially provide the right procedure page from the AFM or FCOM to be executed by the pilot in the identified situation.

      Potentially such a system could also monitor the aircraft condition in a broader scope.

      There is a discussion on this subject in my blog on March 19, 2019. Most of the content is already summarized above, but there are interesting comments from several readers too.


      What you’re referring to already exists. A Flight Warning Computer can give advisories and warnings in an audible, visual and textual format to pilots with flight guidance on the instruments. Issues like steep bank angle, stall, configuration, terrain, wind shear, traffic, over speed, glide slope, etc. And equipment and instrument failures too. ECAMs on Airbus do like you say, “provide the right procedure page from the AFM or FCOM to be executed by the pilot in the identified situation.” They are onboard electronic abnormal checklists that detect the issue, provide the checklist on a display, then automatically checks off each task as it detects it completed.


      I guess the guys in AF447 didn't have that.
       
      FlyHappy
      Posts: 1036
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      Re: When are we going to have a Virtual Pilot?

      Thu Mar 21, 2019 11:16 pm

      I predict the virtual piloted plane will be filled with virtual passengers.
       
      Cactusjuba
      Posts: 175
      Joined: Thu Dec 14, 2017 8:06 am

      Re: When are we going to have a Virtual Pilot?

      Thu Mar 21, 2019 11:44 pm

      VV wrote:
      Cactusjuba wrote:
      VV wrote:

      I still do not understand why there has not been any computer assistant in the cockpit. It is certainly possible to have a kind of monitor that follows the flight parameters and then fly a virtual aircraft in the aircraft. For example a computer program could estimate or approximate air speed based on different inputs (GPS, static pressure, alpha, inertial data etc) and also in different manners (GPS speed, GPS altitude, last validated wind speed, inertial data etc) such that when something goes wrong it is detected quickly.

      Since the assistant would have all sort of data from difference sources, it might be able to propose some options to the pilot. The system does not need to take control of the aircraft. What I would expect is that the digital assistant gives good indications of what to do.

      I do not understand why you ask a pilot to solve a problem when the situation is not good. The pilot does not necessarily have all the information he/she needs. He might have forgotten things or he might be under immense stress. A computer program does not sweat.

      It is not very rationale to ask the pilot to control the aircraft manually without any help, for example when the airspeed becomes unreliable or when the alpha probe is sending wrong signal.

      My point is, it is certainly possible to think about an advisory digital pilot assistant in the cockpit that does not control the aircraft, but continuously monitor everything from flight dynamic perspective. It could potentially provide the right procedure page from the AFM or FCOM to be executed by the pilot in the identified situation.

      Potentially such a system could also monitor the aircraft condition in a broader scope.

      There is a discussion on this subject in my blog on March 19, 2019. Most of the content is already summarized above, but there are interesting comments from several readers too.


      What you’re referring to already exists. A Flight Warning Computer can give advisories and warnings in an audible, visual and textual format to pilots with flight guidance on the instruments. Issues like steep bank angle, stall, configuration, terrain, wind shear, traffic, over speed, glide slope, etc. And equipment and instrument failures too. ECAMs on Airbus do like you say, “provide the right procedure page from the AFM or FCOM to be executed by the pilot in the identified situation.” They are onboard electronic abnormal checklists that detect the issue, provide the checklist on a display, then automatically checks off each task as it detects it completed.


      I guess the guys in AF447 didn't have that.


      Now there is a software update. Airspeed unreliable, and the the PFD no longer gives airspeed readouts. It just shows a range of green and red to depict flying envelope.
      So in other words, updates to the system are all that’s needed. MCAS was poorly engineered for human factors and redundancy. The 737 is still around because it’s a bean counters dream jet. The avionics system, especially the warning and annunciation are built around an outdated legacy design, not modern at all. Fix that. Don’t create some glorified virtual flight engineer that taps the crew on the shoulder to give advice. Not necessary, nor helpful in 99% of situations when they’d be triggered. Very knee jerk, industry outsider kind of suggestion.
       
      twaconnie
      Posts: 196
      Joined: Sat Jun 28, 2008 3:18 pm

      Re: When are we going to have a Virtual Pilot?

      Fri Mar 22, 2019 3:48 pm

      I guess virtual mechanics are next. Just wait till you see a robot doing a walk around inspection of your plane.

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