RichardWelling
Posts: 151
Joined: Mon Jun 26, 2017 2:45 am

Re: AA and the Philippines will it happen?

Sat Mar 23, 2019 12:07 am

They could just add this lane in a JV with CX or CZ. Would make things easier without adding additional metal.
 
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KanaHawaii
Posts: 172
Joined: Thu Apr 07, 2016 9:43 pm

Re: AA and the Philippines will it happen?

Sat Mar 23, 2019 2:46 am

As mentioned on this thread before, HA did make a effort to make inroads on the HNL-MNL run for a number of years. However, price pressure on the route really kept margins tight on that flight. It was one of the highlighted reasons HA withdrew from MNL a few years ago. I am also of the impression that MNL as an airport is something a little less to be desired operational-wise. I will not elaborate on the rumors here as they have been said in other threads regarding MNL.
 
Ebmek
Posts: 30
Joined: Sat Aug 18, 2018 9:24 am

Re: AA and the Philippines will it happen?

Sat Mar 23, 2019 3:08 am

LurveBus wrote:
jfk777 wrote:
burnsie28 wrote:

You do realize that DL still flies to MNL right?



Thanks for pointing out Delta flies an A359 from Seattle, LAX, DTW, or Salt Lake City nonstop. Atlanta we have a problem, I can't find such a flights from any Delta city ? Do you mean they fly via Tokyo or Nagoya ? That is not a nonstop from the mainland or HNL, flying a tag from Japan is an old Northwest legacy route which will get cut if Delta moves there entire operation to Haneda, doubtful the Japanese will let DL operate a tag from HND.



And among all of the Northwest legacy routes that already got chopped, Manila and Singapore are still standing. It remains to be seen if DL will be granted enough rights to move their operations to HND.


In other news, I wonder where AA is thinking that it can fly from. PAL serves LAX and SFO with double-daily 77Ws, and even their yields are being hurt by the one-stop competition from Chinese airlines. The last US carrier to go head to head with PAL from the US is HA from HNL, and they didn’t last too long.

Of course, if PAL were about to join oneworld, this would be a totally different discussion. AA could potentially codeshare on an existing PAL flight. But still, with their own metal, it may be tough.


How I miss the days of seeing double daily B744s from NW overnighting during their golden years operating at MNL. I always found it so funny that MNL got the 744s from NW while HKG only got the B742. Now DL has made a complete joke of the route to MNL with a single daily B763 and they've completely left HKG.

Nowadays, MNL is completely saturated and bottom of the barrel as far as pricing goes. AA joining the fray from the mainland US to MNL from ANYWHERE would be a stretch with their OneWorld partner CX only an hour and a half flight away from HKG and with greater connectivity with Filipinos all over the world that can be funneled into the 6+ daily flights between HKG and MNL CX offers, as well as sometimes twice daily CEB flights, and even still with their flights to Clark and Davao. There is no room left for mainland-US airline expansion. And no reason for it, since every available US3 has a partner that flies to MNL from an Asian hub.
 
LurveBus
Posts: 319
Joined: Wed Mar 21, 2007 8:21 pm

Re: AA and the Philippines will it happen?

Sat Mar 23, 2019 9:24 am

Ebmek wrote:
LurveBus wrote:
jfk777 wrote:


Thanks for pointing out Delta flies an A359 from Seattle, LAX, DTW, or Salt Lake City nonstop. Atlanta we have a problem, I can't find such a flights from any Delta city ? Do you mean they fly via Tokyo or Nagoya ? That is not a nonstop from the mainland or HNL, flying a tag from Japan is an old Northwest legacy route which will get cut if Delta moves there entire operation to Haneda, doubtful the Japanese will let DL operate a tag from HND.



And among all of the Northwest legacy routes that already got chopped, Manila and Singapore are still standing. It remains to be seen if DL will be granted enough rights to move their operations to HND.


In other news, I wonder where AA is thinking that it can fly from. PAL serves LAX and SFO with double-daily 77Ws, and even their yields are being hurt by the one-stop competition from Chinese airlines. The last US carrier to go head to head with PAL from the US is HA from HNL, and they didn’t last too long.

Of course, if PAL were about to join oneworld, this would be a totally different discussion. AA could potentially codeshare on an existing PAL flight. But still, with their own metal, it may be tough.


How I miss the days of seeing double daily B744s from NW overnighting during their golden years operating at MNL. I always found it so funny that MNL got the 744s from NW while HKG only got the B742. Now DL has made a complete joke of the route to MNL with a single daily B763 and they've completely left HKG.

Nowadays, MNL is completely saturated and bottom of the barrel as far as pricing goes. AA joining the fray from the mainland US to MNL from ANYWHERE would be a stretch with their OneWorld partner CX only an hour and a half flight away from HKG and with greater connectivity with Filipinos all over the world that can be funneled into the 6+ daily flights between HKG and MNL CX offers, as well as sometimes twice daily CEB flights, and even still with their flights to Clark and Davao. There is no room left for mainland-US airline expansion. And no reason for it, since every available US3 has a partner that flies to MNL from an Asian hub.


There’s one tiny thing with CX, though. Seats between MNL and HKG are limited by a bilateral, and local MNL-HKG O/D has been steadily rising to fill up that quota. While a lot of it goes on LCCs, it’s starting to get difficult to get good fares to MNL, especially in premium classes, as those six flights get full pretty fast.
 
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Devilfish
Posts: 6526
Joined: Tue Jan 24, 2006 7:52 am

Re: AA and the Philippines will it happen?

Sat Mar 23, 2019 7:01 pm

FSDan wrote:
You must be thinking of either UA from SFO or DL from SEA... UA starting SEA-MNL would be a wild rumor indeed.

A con is that much of that traffic is very price-sensitive, and is OK taking a more circuitous routing and/or more stops in order to get a cheaper fare.

Sorry, rusty memory...it was indeed SFO per the blog.....

http://www.philippineflightnetwork.com/ ... pines.html

Quote:
According to Jake Cefolia, United Airlines' Vice President for Sales in Atlantic and Pacific, the airline is currently exploring non-stop service to Manila from destinations such as San Francisco.

"The Manila-San Francisco route is always on the drawing board," said Cefolia. He added that United is carefully studying opportunities to ensure that it only enters markets, where it has a presence below the gross domestic product growth in order to avoid overcapacity.

"There is a tremendous amount of demand," said Cefolia. "Sometimes it seems insatiable demand in Manila. It is the highest volume market between Asia and the US. However, it is also an incredibly price sensitive market."
"Everyone is entitled to my opinion." - Garfield
 
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LAXintl
Posts: 23845
Joined: Wed May 24, 2000 12:12 pm

Re: AA and the Philippines will it happen?

Sat Mar 23, 2019 7:13 pm

One tidbit about UA previous experience in Manila.

MNL was the #1 station systemwide in the percentage of non-rev traveler demand. Flights could often have upwards of 50 non-revs listed, at times closer to 100.
From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
 
Ebmek
Posts: 30
Joined: Sat Aug 18, 2018 9:24 am

Re: AA and the Philippines will it happen?

Mon Mar 25, 2019 3:00 am

LurveBus wrote:
Ebmek wrote:
LurveBus wrote:


And among all of the Northwest legacy routes that already got chopped, Manila and Singapore are still standing. It remains to be seen if DL will be granted enough rights to move their operations to HND.


In other news, I wonder where AA is thinking that it can fly from. PAL serves LAX and SFO with double-daily 77Ws, and even their yields are being hurt by the one-stop competition from Chinese airlines. The last US carrier to go head to head with PAL from the US is HA from HNL, and they didn’t last too long.

Of course, if PAL were about to join oneworld, this would be a totally different discussion. AA could potentially codeshare on an existing PAL flight. But still, with their own metal, it may be tough.


How I miss the days of seeing double daily B744s from NW overnighting during their golden years operating at MNL. I always found it so funny that MNL got the 744s from NW while HKG only got the B742. Now DL has made a complete joke of the route to MNL with a single daily B763 and they've completely left HKG.

Nowadays, MNL is completely saturated and bottom of the barrel as far as pricing goes. AA joining the fray from the mainland US to MNL from ANYWHERE would be a stretch with their OneWorld partner CX only an hour and a half flight away from HKG and with greater connectivity with Filipinos all over the world that can be funneled into the 6+ daily flights between HKG and MNL CX offers, as well as sometimes twice daily CEB flights, and even still with their flights to Clark and Davao. There is no room left for mainland-US airline expansion. And no reason for it, since every available US3 has a partner that flies to MNL from an Asian hub.


There’s one tiny thing with CX, though. Seats between MNL and HKG are limited by a bilateral, and local MNL-HKG O/D has been steadily rising to fill up that quota. While a lot of it goes on LCCs, it’s starting to get difficult to get good fares to MNL, especially in premium classes, as those six flights get full pretty fast.


Good point, and valid. However, CX has always thrived on connecting passengers through Hong Kong. And because of this, the rising O/D market can very readily be filled by all the other carriers operating the route. Looking at the flight search engine on a random day in May shows 4 daily flights by Cebu Pacific (3 A330s, 1 A321), 5 daily flights by PAL (4 A321s, 1 A330), 7 daily flights by CX (4 A330s, 2 A350s, 1 B777), and one daily each by Hong Kong Airlines (A330) and Philippines Air Asia (A320).

It would be absolutely wonderful for the US3 to start additional service to the Philippines because that is an absolutely massive market since Filipinos the world over love going back home. AA in the long term may be able to make it work with high density B787s. But that's only if MNL is able to relieve the inherent congestion at the main airport.
 
DBCooper
Posts: 176
Joined: Wed Jun 16, 2004 2:51 am

Re: AA and the Philippines will it happen?

Mon Mar 25, 2019 5:21 am

Assuming DL is successful in moving NRT-USA flights from NRT to HND (and that is no sure thing), what's to stop them adding SEA-MNL-SIN to take care of NRT-MNL & NRT-SIN? Seems like that would take care of both issues, especially if 5th freedom traffic is available MNL-SIN?

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