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737 MAX Order Status

Posted: Fri Mar 22, 2019 2:51 pm
by BirdBrain
Hello guys,

There has been a lot of talk about review of certification process and reciprocal approvals by other agencies. Then there is also the talk of software only fix may not be sufficient and possibly leading to additional testing and certification. Some airlines have cancelled their financial guidance for the year (e.g. Air Canada and WestJet) as most of their narrow body business model was/is based on the MAX. Some airlines are planning to keep aging aircraft for longer, others are bringing in aircraft on lease during this time. Some are consolidating flights by reducing frequencies and using wide body aircraft.

On the extreme end, there have been some which are vocal about reviewing their MAX orders by reducing or may even be cancelling some orders. Personally I think Boeing will find a solution and the MAX will be flying again or even offer NG a bit longer, but it certainly has opened up the possibility that some airlines will be evaluating their options.

As the order book stands today (21st March 2019):
Orders 5,012
Deliveries 376
Current status: No change
(source https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_B ... deliveries)

So here is my hypothetical list:

Garuda, may reduce or cancel their outstanding MAX orders.
LionAir, may reduce MAX orders and possibly order NG/A3XX.
Air Canada, may reduce MAX orders and possibly order A3XX.
AA, may reduce MAX orders and possibly order A3XX.

SouthWest & FlyDubai, no change. They are committed to MAX.

Your thoughts? Please keep in mind, this is not a A vs B, MAX vs A3XX, MCAS or grounding or the FIX thread. This may help keep the number related threads in one place. I request if we can please try to stay on topic. Thank you.

Re: 737 MAX Order Status

Posted: Fri Mar 22, 2019 3:03 pm
by sibibom
Most airlines(90%) will stick to MAX, or worst case defer until NSA. A320s are so badly sold out that it can't make any meaningful conversion other than a few airlines (mostly those who operate both). If A220 can get its production sorted and increase production in next couple of years, that is the only program that can benefit.

ps : I am assuming MAX will sort its issues in a few months, else all hell will break loose.

Re: 737 MAX Order Status

Posted: Fri Mar 22, 2019 3:10 pm
by IWMBH
I don't know how many slots Airbus has to offer, if they have some, they may can convince airlines to drop their MAX orders.

Re: 737 MAX Order Status

Posted: Fri Mar 22, 2019 3:11 pm
by qcpilotxf
sibibom wrote:
Most airlines(90%) will stick to MAX, or worst case defer until NSA. A320s are so badly sold out that it can't make any meaningful conversion other than a few airlines (mostly those who operate both). If A220 can get its production sorted and increase production in next couple of years, that is the only program that can benefit.

ps : I am assuming MAX will sort its issues in a few months, else all hell will break loose.


I'm willing to bet it will be higher than 90%, it will be highly unlikely that we see any major cancelations in the MAX order book. Lots of successful aircraft have had incidents early in productions that didn't stop their momentum.

Re: 737 MAX Order Status

Posted: Fri Mar 22, 2019 3:42 pm
by redcap1962
I wonder if Boeing and/or some airlines will launch some kind of campaign once the fix is done in order to restore confindence on the passengers side...

Re: 737 MAX Order Status

Posted: Fri Mar 22, 2019 3:50 pm
by AIRT0M
Hasn't Garuda cancelled their orders today?

Re: 737 MAX Order Status

Posted: Fri Mar 22, 2019 3:50 pm
by ACCS300
I tend to agree, not a lot of cancellations but the effect will be on new orders. I suspect many airlines not yet committed to the NEO or MAX may defer to the NEO for the time being.

Re: 737 MAX Order Status

Posted: Fri Mar 22, 2019 3:52 pm
by george77300
I don’t think any will cancel as a result of the crash with the one exception being possibly LionAir.

Garuda is the latest rumour but they had one delivered and delayed the other 49 for the foreseeable future because they are in a bit of trouble. If they can use the crash as an excuse then maybe, but the MAX will be successful and sell in large quantities over the next 10 years or so.

Re: 737 MAX Order Status

Posted: Fri Mar 22, 2019 3:54 pm
by george77300
AIRT0M wrote:
Hasn't Garuda cancelled their orders today?


No. A whole lot of talk but no action. They deferred the 49 remaining well before the crashes as they are in trouble as an airline. If they can cancel with the crashes as an excuse for fewer penalties then that’s probably what they are trying.

Re: 737 MAX Order Status

Posted: Fri Mar 22, 2019 4:15 pm
by Sooner787
redcap1962 wrote:
I wonder if Boeing and/or some airlines will launch some kind of campaign once the fix is done in order to restore confindence on the passengers side...


I think the Paris Air Show is a make or break event for Boeing to begin the long process
of restoring confidence in the MAX program.

Hoping they have hired whoever the PR firm is that has helped VW navigate the "Dieselgate" scandal. :)

Re: 737 MAX Order Status

Posted: Fri Mar 22, 2019 4:21 pm
by m66
Sooner787 wrote:
redcap1962 wrote:
I wonder if Boeing and/or some airlines will launch some kind of campaign once the fix is done in order to restore confindence on the passengers side...


I think the Paris Air Show is a make or break event for Boeing to begin the long process
of restoring confidence in the MAX program.

Hoping they have hired whoever the PR firm is that has helped VW navigate the "Dieselgate" scandal. :)


VW has navigated the DieselGate scandal? ... I must have missed the navigation part.

Re: 737 MAX Order Status

Posted: Fri Mar 22, 2019 4:36 pm
by KlimaBXsst
For many airlines, earlier deliveries of the:

737-7
737-8
737-9

In Europe, Africa, and Asia may benefit some airlines seeking to replace or update their current equipment more quickly, if there is any hesitancy to taking delivery of the first generation MAX.

Re: 737 MAX Order Status

Posted: Fri Mar 22, 2019 5:01 pm
by dc10lover
Indonesian airline cancels $5 billion order for 49 Boeing 737 Max jets
Garuda Indonesia airline said the decision to cancel the multibillion-dollar order was due to fears “its business would be damaged due to customer alarm over the crashes.”

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna986161

Re: 737 MAX Order Status

Posted: Fri Mar 22, 2019 5:09 pm
by atcsundevil
We already have several topics on this thread. Please refer the discussion to the appropriate existing topic.

737 MAX Orders/Production viewtopic.php?t=1411869

737 MAX Grounding
viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1417545

✈️ atcsundevil