ren0312
Topic Author
Posts: 23
Joined: Thu Apr 13, 2017 7:44 pm

What happens if Boeing is forced to replace the 737 immediately?

Tue Mar 26, 2019 7:47 am

What happens if the 737 Max fix fails to get the vote of confidence so it remains grounded until the Enterprise D is due to be commisioned, so that Boeing has to effectively replace the 737 with an entirely new aircraft?
 
Interested
Posts: 647
Joined: Thu May 19, 2016 12:19 pm

Re: What happens if Boeing is forced to replace the 737 immediately?

Tue Mar 26, 2019 7:49 am

I read it's a 10 year job to design and create a new aircraft for Boeing
 
chiad
Posts: 1214
Joined: Tue May 16, 2006 4:24 pm

Re: What happens if Boeing is forced to replace the 737 immediately?

Tue Mar 26, 2019 7:57 am

ren0312 wrote:
What happens if the 737 Max fix fails to get the vote of confidence so it remains grounded until the Enterprise D is due to be commisioned, so that Boeing has to effectively replace the 737 with an entirely new aircraft?


I think they would go for the NSA og MOM.
 
User avatar
Spiderguy252
Posts: 1098
Joined: Mon Feb 02, 2009 10:58 am

Re: What happens if Boeing is forced to replace the 737 immediately?

Tue Mar 26, 2019 7:58 am

Southwest Airlines will throw a fit.
Vahroone
 
Andy33
Posts: 2474
Joined: Tue Sep 15, 2009 9:30 am

Re: What happens if Boeing is forced to replace the 737 immediately?

Tue Mar 26, 2019 8:08 am

In the short to medium term they'd probably revert to building 737NGs on the grounds that they are a design of proven safety and reliability, and the A320neo backlog is so long that airlines in desperate need of additional or replacement planes have to buy something.. Unlike the 757, the tooling still exists and is still in use for the last few NGs outstanding on the order book, and for military derivatives. That's going to take a while to organise though, and in the meantime there's going to be a hole in the production schedules. Unless work on the NSA is more advanced than anyone expects, we really can't expect to see it in airline service in less than 5 years, others have said more like 8.
Whether the MAX grounding takes weeks, months, or years to be lifted I just don't know, and may well depend on decisions taken in individual countries to a far greater extent than in the past few decades.
 
Whatsaptudo
Posts: 66
Joined: Tue Jan 24, 2017 11:54 am

Re: What happens if Boeing is forced to replace the 737 immediately?

Tue Mar 26, 2019 8:24 am

There an issue with one software driven system unique to the Max version of an aircraft that has sold thousands of copies. Settle down averyone. The Max will be fine.
 
WIederling
Posts: 8888
Joined: Sun Sep 13, 2015 2:15 pm

Re: What happens if Boeing is forced to replace the 737 immediately?

Tue Mar 26, 2019 8:34 am

Whatsaptudo wrote:
There an issue with one software driven system unique to the Max version of an aircraft that has sold thousands of copies. Settle down averyone. The Max will be fine.


Breaking it down to a piddling software issues really leaves the reality domain.

Then all MAX were sold before the Talidomide properties of the new engine integration became public.
Murphy is an optimist
 
imthedreamliner
Posts: 100
Joined: Mon Nov 20, 2017 11:34 am

Re: What happens if Boeing is forced to replace the 737 immediately?

Tue Mar 26, 2019 8:48 am

MAX will be flying again soon ( 2-3 months ). Airlines need airplanes to fly and generate revenues. Boeing will fix whatever needs to be fixed. Boeing as well as airlines will ensure passangers aircraft is safe. Around %10 of the total order will be cancelled ( mainly by the likes of Garuda who is just taking advantage of the situation ). Boeing may want to launch NMA sooner then expected just to change the attention on Boeing. All the other stuff ( crime investigation, FAA certification process and other stuff ) will silently be closed with small impact on Boeing. At the end of the year everything will be fine.
 
User avatar
keesje
Posts: 13186
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2001 2:08 am

Re: What happens if Boeing is forced to replace the 737 immediately?

Tue Mar 26, 2019 8:55 am

I think the modification requirements of the FAA, EASA and airlines will determine the severity and timeline of the modification, but there will be a modification.If the MAX will be fine and a simple software fix will instantly be accepted? There's certainly a lot of hope out there.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
Amiga500
Posts: 2340
Joined: Tue Mar 03, 2015 8:22 am

Re: What happens if Boeing is forced to replace the 737 immediately?

Tue Mar 26, 2019 9:01 am

ren0312 wrote:
What happens if the 737 Max fix fails to get the vote of confidence so it remains grounded until the Enterprise D is due to be commisioned, so that Boeing has to effectively replace the 737 with an entirely new aircraft?


Worst case scenario time-to-fix for the MAX is about 18 months for a resize of the H-stab and elevators.

Best case scenario for a new-design time-to-market is about 8 years.
 
art
Posts: 2936
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2005 11:46 am

Re: What happens if Boeing is forced to replace the 737 immediately?

Tue Mar 26, 2019 9:27 am

Andy33 wrote:
In the short to medium term they'd probably revert to building 737NGs on the grounds that they are a design of proven safety and reliability, and the A320neo backlog is so long that airlines in desperate need of additional or replacement planes have to buy something..


:checkmark:

A&B each build over 50 narrowbodies a month. Airbus cannot double production to satisfy NB demand on its own.
 
User avatar
SEPilot
Posts: 5462
Joined: Sat Dec 30, 2006 10:21 pm

Re: What happens if Boeing is forced to replace the 737 immediately?

Tue Mar 26, 2019 9:30 am

Won’t happen. They will fix it; the fix is almost done.
The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
 
User avatar
Jouhou
Posts: 1969
Joined: Tue May 24, 2016 4:16 am

Re: What happens if Boeing is forced to replace the 737 immediately?

Tue Mar 26, 2019 9:42 am

Interested wrote:
I read it's a 10 year job to design and create a new aircraft for Boeing


It is for anyone. Remember how the cseries sank bombardier? Even though it was a financial out they did finally bring a really nice aircraft into the world. Big difference is Boring won't be sunk by a new clean sheet design, even if it takes too much time and money, they actually have the ability to recover from it. I'm disappointed with the max but I look forward to their next clean sheet design.
 
User avatar
flyingturtle
Posts: 5656
Joined: Mon Oct 31, 2011 1:39 pm

Re: What happens if Boeing is forced to replace the 737 immediately?

Tue Mar 26, 2019 9:47 am

License-build the Boeing 320 MAX 8...

...wait...
Reading accident reports is what calms me down
 
User avatar
Carlos01
Posts: 151
Joined: Fri Aug 12, 2016 11:52 am

Re: What happens if Boeing is forced to replace the 737 immediately?

Tue Mar 26, 2019 10:09 am

imthedreamliner wrote:
MAX will be flying again soon ( 2-3 months ). Airlines need airplanes to fly and generate revenues. Boeing will fix whatever needs to be fixed. Boeing as well as airlines will ensure passangers aircraft is safe. Around %10 of the total order will be cancelled ( mainly by the likes of Garuda who is just taking advantage of the situation ). Boeing may want to launch NMA sooner then expected just to change the attention on Boeing. All the other stuff ( crime investigation, FAA certification process and other stuff ) will silently be closed with small impact on Boeing. At the end of the year everything will be fine.


This is what everyone of course would hope for. But in my opinion this would really be a best-case-scenario, if the powers that be are willing.

First of all I think that the investigations will not be closed quietly, since it's not just some "inclarities" in the certification process, 346 people have actually died. To put it in perspective, that's more than 10% of the 9/11 body count - which was not exactly faded away silently. It will take years to solve all these legal cases, and compensations will probably run in hundreds of millions at least, and I'm sure one or more people will go to jail as well.

Only then I would even consider the impact of all of this to MAX sales. As has been mentioned before on this forum, the name "MAX" is a good as dead, that has to go - quietly or with a bang (no pun intended). Then if the plane itself will be still considered flyable is another story that I cannot comment - since I just don't know enough about it. But in case just software fixes are not enough, then it could take years - which in turn would pretty much "take care" of a large portion of the order backlog.

Time will tell.
 
User avatar
Revelation
Posts: 21477
Joined: Wed Feb 09, 2005 9:37 pm

Re: What happens if Boeing is forced to replace the 737 immediately?

Tue Mar 26, 2019 10:37 am

keesje wrote:
I think the modification requirements of the FAA, EASA and airlines will determine the severity and timeline of the modification, but there will be a modification.If the MAX will be fine and a simple software fix will instantly be accepted? There's certainly a lot of hope out there.

And there's clearly a lot of hope MAX will never fly again, given all the loaded questions being thrown around here...

Be prepare to be disappointed, because it will fly again soon, and in large numbers.

In a few months, for most people this will be no bigger a memory than GTF bearings seizing, RR turbine blades cracking, 787 batteries exploding, A380 ribs cracking, ...
Last edited by Revelation on Tue Mar 26, 2019 10:49 am, edited 2 times in total.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
BravoOne
Posts: 3617
Joined: Fri Apr 12, 2013 2:27 pm

Re: What happens if Boeing is forced to replace the 737 immediately?

Tue Mar 26, 2019 10:37 am

Additional training is factored into the solution to this issue. The degree of training remains a moving target and since the current sims do not factor in a MCAS anomaly it remains to be seen what kind of an additional delay this will. At best another month, At worst another 4 to 6 months. It will get done and the MAX will go on to be solid aircraft.
 
User avatar
QuarkFly
Posts: 369
Joined: Mon Aug 15, 2016 4:20 pm

Re: What happens if Boeing is forced to replace the 737 immediately?

Tue Mar 26, 2019 10:46 am

They won't do it -- all hypothetical and unrealistic to begin with....But if the 737 were never to be sold again -- Boeing would go on as a wide-body producer for the next decade, making 787's and 777's quite profitably while developing an all new 737 replacement.

That being said...after seeing what a patched-up mess the 737-Max has become...Boeing should drop the NMA/797 plan -- and start now on a new 150 - 200 passenger NSA. Like the never-ending Rocky movies...the Max was a re-make too many.
Always take the Red Eye if possible
 
VSMUT
Posts: 3058
Joined: Mon Aug 08, 2016 11:40 am

Re: What happens if Boeing is forced to replace the 737 immediately?

Tue Mar 26, 2019 10:53 am

Revelation wrote:
And there's clearly a lot of hope MAX will never fly again, given all the loaded questions being thrown around here...


Hope, or worry?
 
Motorhussy
Posts: 3601
Joined: Thu Mar 30, 2000 7:49 am

Re: What happens if Boeing is forced to replace the 737 immediately?

Tue Mar 26, 2019 10:54 am

Revelation wrote:
keesje wrote:
I think the modification requirements of the FAA, EASA and airlines will determine the severity and timeline of the modification, but there will be a modification.If the MAX will be fine and a simple software fix will instantly be accepted? There's certainly a lot of hope out there.

And there's clearly a lot of hope MAX will never fly again, given all the loaded questions being thrown around here...

Be prepare to be disappointed, because it will fly again soon, and in large numbers.

In a few months, for most people this will be no bigger a memory than GTF bearings seizing, RR turbine blades cracking, 787 batteries exploding, A380 ribs cracking, ...

And how many people died in those other incidents and scenarios?! Seriously mate, that’s at best distasteful.
come visit the south pacific
 
Whatsaptudo
Posts: 66
Joined: Tue Jan 24, 2017 11:54 am

Re: What happens if Boeing is forced to replace the 737 immediately?

Tue Mar 26, 2019 11:04 am

While it’s tragic people have lost there lives in these accidents, plenty of people have been killed in all sorts of aircraft.
 
worldranger
Posts: 234
Joined: Sun Jun 07, 2015 4:12 pm

Re: What happens if Boeing is forced to replace the 737 immediately?

Tue Mar 26, 2019 11:04 am

Technically an easy fix, almost complete.

Customer perception, not so easy.

Boeing crisis mgt team should be pushing a new name - MAX Is dirty now.
 
Cointrin330
Posts: 1253
Joined: Sat Jul 16, 2016 12:23 pm

Re: What happens if Boeing is forced to replace the 737 immediately?

Tue Mar 26, 2019 11:17 am

I don't think this will happen or even be necessary. The fundamental design of the MAX is not really the issue. The main differences between it and the NG predecessors are the engines, which are heavier, and are potentially what has led to the MCAS system being augmented to compensate for heavier engines impacting the angle of attack, and the software itself. Boeing will release a fix, it will be tested, and more than likely approved but this time not just by the FAA but likely other aviation regulators worldwide, and then the MAX can fly again.
 
DartHerald
Posts: 59
Joined: Mon Nov 14, 2016 2:08 pm

Re: What happens if Boeing is forced to replace the 737 immediately?

Tue Mar 26, 2019 11:20 am

The realistic reply is that of course the problem will be fixed and the plane will re-enter service, but not necessarily quickly. Boeing and the FAA will be under intense scrutiny and the FAA in particular will be looking to protect and rebuild their badly damaged reputation, so they will take their time and be exceptionally thorough - and that's just the USA situation. The other agencies around the world, having publicly renounced their faith in the FAA, will be looking to be just as thorough, if not more so.
 
User avatar
atcsundevil
Moderator
Posts: 3592
Joined: Sat Mar 20, 2010 12:22 pm

Re: What happens if Boeing is forced to replace the 737 immediately?

Tue Mar 26, 2019 11:23 am

We already have too many discussions on this topic. Please post in the existing discussions.

✈️ atcsundevil

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos