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keesje
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Paris Airshow 2019, Will Airbus move? A321XLR, A322 launching customers..

Tue Mar 26, 2019 11:46 am

As far as I can find, nothing is official yet. No specification, no customers, variants. The Paris Airshow will be held in a few months; 17-23 June. Late 2018 there was news Airbus was actively pursuing a launch "mid 2019"

Status:
- Airbus does informal consultations with airlines presenting the technical characteristics of the A321 XLR
- The aim is reaching 200 or 300 purchase orders that guarantee the project is economically viable (Reuters)
- A variant of the current metal wing seems to preferred option
- Those will be a combination of new orders and conversions of existing A321 NEO conversions.
- Apparently there is little fear this will come at the cost of A330NEO sales, A330-800 sales are low anyway..
- Seat capacity is still on the low side, a variant trading range for capacity A322 NEO might be considered. https://leehamnews.com/2018/03/08/a321neo-plus-stretch-far-nma-avitas/

http://www.dailyaviation.net/airbus-is-looking-for-customers-for-the-a321-xlr/

Prospect airlines for the A321XLR: Iceandair, AirLingus, Jetblue, United, Delta, Chinese Airlines.
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Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Will Airbus move? A321XLR, A322 launching customers..

Tue Mar 26, 2019 12:37 pm

keesje wrote:
Prospect airlines for the A321XLR: Iceandair, AirLingus, Jetblue, United, Delta, Chinese Airlines.


United must be a red hot customer. How else will they be able to dump those A350s that they're so desperate to get rid of? :duck:
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Polot
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Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Will Airbus move? A321XLR, A322 launching customers..

Tue Mar 26, 2019 12:41 pm

Difficult to say if Airbus will move. Their plans, and business case, will have to be altered now that the A321XLR and A322 should both be certified as new aircraft, because remember grandfathering is bad now ;)
 
LSZH34
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Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Will Airbus move? A321XLR, A322 launching customers..

Tue Mar 26, 2019 12:55 pm

Airbus would be "stupid" to launch a potential A322 before B launches a NSA/MoM/797. As long as the A321 is the superior product in its class, there's no need for A to make a move.
 
Weatherwatcher1
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Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Will Airbus move? A321XLR, A322 launching customers..

Tue Mar 26, 2019 12:59 pm

I am confused by the title of this thread.

There has been lots of conversation regarding an MTOW increase for the A321. I believe the reconfiguration of fuel tanks and increasing MTOW a few percent is likely. A launch seems pretty imminent.

I haven’t heard any discussion of stretching the A321 outside of this website. I believe that is a separate conversation. Airbus has chosen to add capacity by shrinking galleys and lavatories as well as Eliminating exit doors instead of stretching the airplane.
 
TC957
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Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Will Airbus move? A321XLR, A322 launching customers..

Tue Mar 26, 2019 1:04 pm

I'm of the view that Airbus can steal a lot of potential NSA/MoM/797 by launching a 321XLR before Boeing makes their moves.
I'd add Air Asia and Indigo to the list of target customers.
 
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Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Will Airbus move? A321XLR, A322 launching customers..

Tue Mar 26, 2019 1:16 pm

LSZH34 wrote:
Airbus would be "stupid" to launch a potential A322 before B launches a NSA/MoM/797. As long as the A321 is the superior product in its class, there's no need for A to make a move.

Actually, Airbus would be "stupid" to NOT launch a potential A322 if they can do it fast and cheap to counter the NSA/MoM/797 and make the latter's business case impossible to close.
 
SteelChair
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Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Will Airbus move? A321XLR, A322 launching customers..

Tue Mar 26, 2019 1:17 pm

Launching today would be really twisting the knife into their prime competitor. I say launch today, asap.
 
tealnz
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Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Will Airbus move? A321XLR, A322 launching customers..

Tue Mar 26, 2019 1:23 pm

Even accepting the XLR is just a derivative, the internal approval process will require a lot of work: beyond the design and production issues there is a larger question of strategy (How does it work as an NMA response? Where does it fit in to Airbus longer-term development plans for the A320, including an eventual new wing? Does Airbus do a stretch at the same time?) All this at a time when the top management team is changing (Faury starts in April?) So the threshold question is whether Airbus are in a position to work through this process, with full involvement by the incoming team, in time for a Paris announcement. They have had their share of internal turmoil the past few years so the new team could be forgiven for deciding to take a little longer.
 
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Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Will Airbus move? A321XLR, A322 launching customers..

Tue Mar 26, 2019 1:54 pm

scbriml wrote:
keesje wrote:
Prospect airlines for the A321XLR: Iceandair, AirLingus, Jetblue, United, Delta, Chinese Airlines.


United must be a red hot customer. How else will they be able to dump those A350s that they're so desperate to get rid of? :duck:



Rumor is those 350 slots were cancelled sometime ago and that the deposits were written off.
 
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Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Will Airbus move? A321XLR, A322 launching customers..

Tue Mar 26, 2019 2:46 pm

Why not start working on a true next gen narrowbody with type-commonality with the 220. Otherwise it will 'just' another A320 deriviate and all in all this frame is getting closer and closer to the end of the line developmentwise.
Start with a new design narrowbody in the same MOM-class as Boeing and the battle goes on for another couple of decades. Pockets are deep with current orderbooks.....

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Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Will Airbus move? A321XLR, A322 launching customers..

Tue Mar 26, 2019 2:51 pm

With the backlog of 320 I would say improving profits and the same for the 350 while also ramping of production is a bigger priority. If/when the 797 is announced Airbus will assure their customer base that it will have an appropriate response. (it likely already has several possible responses).
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Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Will Airbus move? A321XLR, A322 launching customers..

Tue Mar 26, 2019 2:56 pm

727200 wrote:
Rumor is those 350 slots were cancelled sometime ago and that the deposits were written off.


As it must be disclosed to shareholders, some time ago means this quarter or it is a fake news as often.....
 
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Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Will Airbus move? A321XLR, A322 launching customers..

Tue Mar 26, 2019 2:59 pm

frmrCapCadet wrote:
With the backlog of 320 I would say improving profits and the same for the 350 while also ramping of production is a bigger priority. If/when the 797 is announced Airbus will assure their customer base that it will have an appropriate response. (it likely already has several possible responses).


As an aircraft manufacturer you always have to be developing the next airframe, otherwise you risk your highly skilled departments (engineering etc) capabilities.
 
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keesje
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Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Will Airbus move? A321XLR, A322 launching customers..

Tue Mar 26, 2019 3:00 pm

If half the launching base for a A321 XLR / Plus would have to come from conversions of existing customers, I think the bigger customers and those with a longer haul/ capacity requirement would be approached.

Looking in the current back log, (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Airbus_A320neo_family_orders_and_deliveries#Orders_by_customer) & listening what the airlines communicate themselves, some possible launching customers pop up:

:airplane: AirAsia, large backlog & longer flights in booming Asia markets
:airplane: American Airlines, large backlog, transcon (capacity) and 757/767 retirements
:airplane: Delta Air Lines, large backlog and TATL and S America destinations, biggest aging 757/767 fleet
:airplane: Turkish Airlines, large backlog, East Asia - Europe hub ambitions
:airplane: JetBlue, TATL, all but announced.
:airplane: Qantas/Jetstart, large backog and Asian Ambitions, looking at reshuffling 787s/ A330s.
:airplane: Lufthansa group, large NEO backlog and high volume slot restricted European flights

I think Boeing latest NMA launch deferral and known 6-7 aircraft development timeline has many airlines scratching their heads. Many can't / don't want to wait for 6-9 years for a substantial number of NMA's.

Image
Source: https://www.scoopnest.com/user/FlightGlobal/997025706898051072-analysis-boeing-nma-when-and-who-will-order/


While the Airbus production / supply chain might theoretically be filled for years, substituting expensive A321XLR/A322 in existing A320 /A321 slots in a uncontested medium market space, offers better revenue potential than leaving the back log as is. And it's all about margin & market share.
Last edited by keesje on Tue Mar 26, 2019 3:05 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Will Airbus move? A321XLR, A322 launching customers..

Tue Mar 26, 2019 3:04 pm

scbriml wrote:
keesje wrote:
Prospect airlines for the A321XLR: Iceandair, AirLingus, Jetblue, United, Delta, Chinese Airlines.


United must be a red hot customer. How else will they be able to dump those A350s that they're so desperate to get rid of? :duck:


They can pick up the phone and ask AA. Ostensibly, it's not that difficult. -ir
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WeatherPilot
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Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Will Airbus move? A321XLR, A322 launching customers..

Tue Mar 26, 2019 3:13 pm

Airbus would be stupid NOT to announce an A321XLR or A322 at the Paris Show to take advantage of Boeing getting taken to the woodshed right now.
 
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Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Will Airbus move? A321XLR, A322 launching customers..

Tue Mar 26, 2019 3:15 pm

It is a lovely game of chess, isn't it? Who will move first? What do Boeing's internal resources look like in the wake of the MAX disaster? Is the NMA team working away, heads town, marching forward against the currents? Does Boeing have the financial resources in the face of BILLIONS in MAX-related payments? What if the MAX has to go away completely as a revenue stream? I would assume that Boeing is a large enough company that different project teams, like the 77X, can continue working towards goals, while the MAX team is at a standstill. The bottleneck of course being upper management and their ability to close a deal - and of course capital resources to take on any project. We just don't know.

It would be rather poetic for Airbus to now jump ahead of a debate the competition started while the competition is down. I'd tell Airbus to stick it to them. Although, in my opinion, the A321XLR, A321XXL, A322XXXLR or whatever is almost to Airbus what the MAX is to Boeing. Maybe this will also give Airbus a little pause too?

In the end, I still think Boeing - perhaps because of the MAX tragedy - will go forward with a version of NMW that, in many ways, will lay the groundwork for a Boeing/Embraer JV to build a common A22X+NSA competitor.
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Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Will Airbus move? A321XLR, A322 launching customers..

Tue Mar 26, 2019 3:21 pm

without a rewing, this is imo putting lipstick on a pig. without a new wing, i dont think that this will be all that competitive with the 797. this will capture a decent portion of the upper nb market, but is that enough to stop the 797? imo its not
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Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Will Airbus move? A321XLR, A322 launching customers..

Tue Mar 26, 2019 3:23 pm

musman9853 wrote:
without a rewing, this is imo putting lipstick on a pig. without a new wing, i dont think that this will be all that competitive with the 797. this will capture a decent portion of the upper nb market, but is that enough to stop the 797? imo its not


That is probably the biggest question from Boeing's side. Will Airbus do a new wing or not? Will Airbus do a clean sheet or not? (A32XXLR could just be a ruse.) Without a new wing or clean sheet, I think Boeing's NSA still has massive potential.
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keesje
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Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Will Airbus move? A321XLR, A322 launching customers..

Tue Mar 26, 2019 3:52 pm

GEUltraFan9XGTF wrote:
musman9853 wrote:
without a rewing, this is imo putting lipstick on a pig. without a new wing, i dont think that this will be all that competitive with the 797. this will capture a decent portion of the upper nb market, but is that enough to stop the 797? imo its not


That is probably the biggest question from Boeing's side. Will Airbus do a new wing or not? Will Airbus do a clean sheet or not? (A32XXLR could just be a ruse.) Without a new wing or clean sheet, I think Boeing's NSA still has massive potential.


:arrow: I think Airbus will do just that: putting lipstick on the A321NEO and possibly stretch it a bit.

Think about about the water mouthing advantages of that approach:
:checkmark: save $4-5 Billion investment
:checkmark: no fight with authorities on A320 grandfathering (FAA will probably object & EASA is not in Airbus' pocket)
:checkmark: use of the newest but mature CFM LEAP & PRatt GTF engines
:checkmark: no 6-7 years rush time to market, but ~predictable 2022.
:checkmark: no supply chain re-invention when the market is eager for stability & capacity
:checkmark: 80-90% technical & cockpit commonality with the biggest NB fleet in the world
:checkmark: use of existing supply chain and final assembly lines in the Europe, USA and China
:checkmark: an empty weight (OEW) of 50-53t and profitable market price of $65-80 mill for Boeing to chew on.

Image
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Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Will Airbus move? A321XLR, A322 launching customers..

Tue Mar 26, 2019 3:57 pm

WeatherPilot wrote:
Airbus would be stupid NOT to announce an A321XLR or A322 at the Paris Show to take advantage of Boeing getting taken to the woodshed right now.


While as a fan of aviation it would be awesome to see, I just can't see the business case for Airbus to have to spend money on this project. It seems to me Airbus would be spending money to win orders from planes they already make (lower their margin?). But for our sake, hopefully, they make them.

Also, airlines buy planes for the long haul, not sure you "Boeing to the woodshed" comment is real or relevant.
 
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Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Will Airbus move? A321XLR, A322 launching customers..

Tue Mar 26, 2019 3:57 pm

727200 wrote:
scbriml wrote:
keesje wrote:
Prospect airlines for the A321XLR: Iceandair, AirLingus, Jetblue, United, Delta, Chinese Airlines.


United must be a red hot customer. How else will they be able to dump those A350s that they're so desperate to get rid of? :duck:



Rumor is those 350 slots were cancelled sometime ago and that the deposits were written off.


What, since they increased the order to 45 frames about 18 months ago?
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seahawk
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Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Will Airbus move? A321XLR, A322 launching customers..

Tue Mar 26, 2019 4:02 pm

And again...

Btw the production issues on the A320 are not getting better as long as the new orders grow quicker than the production capacity.

If you want some early warning for what is coming next, listen to the talk with the unions about the employees in the A380 program.
 
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Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Will Airbus move? A321XLR, A322 launching customers..

Tue Mar 26, 2019 4:24 pm

keesje wrote:
GEUltraFan9XGTF wrote:
musman9853 wrote:
without a rewing, this is imo putting lipstick on a pig. without a new wing, i dont think that this will be all that competitive with the 797. this will capture a decent portion of the upper nb market, but is that enough to stop the 797? imo its not


That is probably the biggest question from Boeing's side. Will Airbus do a new wing or not? Will Airbus do a clean sheet or not? (A32XXLR could just be a ruse.) Without a new wing or clean sheet, I think Boeing's NSA still has massive potential.


:arrow: I think Airbus will do just that: putting lipstick on the A321NEO and possibly stretch it a bit.

Think about about the water mouthing advantages of that approach:
:checkmark: save $4-5 Billion investment
:checkmark: no fight with authorities on A320 grandfathering (FAA will probably object & EASA is not in Airbus' pocket)
:checkmark: use of the newest but mature CFM LEAP & PRatt GTF engines
:checkmark: no 6-7 years rush time to market, but ~predictable 2022.
:checkmark: no supply chain re-invention when the market is eager for stability & capacity
:checkmark: 80-90% technical & cockpit commonality with the biggest NB fleet in the world
:checkmark: use of existing supply chain and final assembly lines in the Europe, USA and China
:checkmark: an empty weight (OEW) of 50-53t and profitable market price of $65-80 mill for Boeing to chew on.

Image



its certainly not a bad investment, a few billion to make their product more appealing. i just think its too little too late.
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Waterbomber2
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Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Will Airbus move? A321XLR, A322 launching customers..

Tue Mar 26, 2019 4:25 pm

keesje wrote:
If half the launching base for a A321 XLR / Plus would have to come from conversions of existing customers, I think the bigger customers and those with a longer haul/ capacity requirement would be approached.

Looking in the current back log, (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Airbus_A320neo_family_orders_and_deliveries#Orders_by_customer) & listening what the airlines communicate themselves, some possible launching customers pop up:

:airplane: AirAsia, large backlog & longer flights in booming Asia markets
:airplane: American Airlines, large backlog, transcon (capacity) and 757/767 retirements
:airplane: Delta Air Lines, large backlog and TATL and S America destinations, biggest aging 757/767 fleet
:airplane: Turkish Airlines, large backlog, East Asia - Europe hub ambitions
:airplane: JetBlue, TATL, all but announced.
:airplane: Qantas/Jetstart, large backog and Asian Ambitions, looking at reshuffling 787s/ A330s.
:airplane: Lufthansa group, large NEO backlog and high volume slot restricted European flights

I think Boeing latest NMA launch deferral and known 6-7 aircraft development timeline has many airlines scratching their heads. Many can't / don't want to wait for 6-9 years for a substantial number of NMA's.

Image
Source: https://www.scoopnest.com/user/FlightGlobal/997025706898051072-analysis-boeing-nma-when-and-who-will-order/


While the Airbus production / supply chain might theoretically be filled for years, substituting expensive A321XLR/A322 in existing A320 /A321 slots in a uncontested medium market space, offers better revenue potential than leaving the back log as is. And it's all about margin & market share.


I acknowledge your argument that there is an opportunity for Airbus to increase margins in its full A320 backlog.

However, one should not forget to keep an eye on costs too.
For instance, a MTOW bump would require higher thrust engines, while CFM and PW are already dealing with durability issues on their current engine specs.
If used for longer flights, the engine cycles would be reduced and thus compensate for the larger strain put on them at take-off, but still that was already applied once to the A321NLR, so how much margin is left for a A321XLR and how much would it cost to increase that engine margin?
Such questions would also apply to the rest of the airframe and systems such as the landing gear.

So higher margin from an A321 XLR, ok yes, but it's only achievable if they can increase revenues more significantly than the cost increase vs. Yan already quite expensive A321NLR.

Concerning a simple stretch, ok, but then you need to add at least 4-5 rows of seats and do it as cheap as possible, without major mofifications and weight increases. Airlines like Wizzair would probably jump of joy and here it's easier to see the merits of a higher purchase cost for the broader market. i. e., why keep our order for A321 when we could add 10% seats for just 3% higher fuel burn and no additional crew costs.
Most potential B797 customers would be interested in the pax capacity more than the range anyway, so if a 250 seat A322 Neo LR with an A321XLR's MTOW can do transcons and intra-Asia, there goes 85% of the B797's business case.
Last edited by Waterbomber2 on Tue Mar 26, 2019 4:40 pm, edited 2 times in total.
 
windian425
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Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Will Airbus move? A321XLR, A322 launching customers..

Tue Mar 26, 2019 4:30 pm

American Airlines could also be interested in this aircraft.
 
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seabosdca
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Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Will Airbus move? A321XLR, A322 launching customers..

Tue Mar 26, 2019 4:34 pm

I think an A321XLR launch at Paris is pretty likely, but let's not overthink it: it's an A321neo with a higher MTOW and a fuel tank configuration that's more sensible for airlines requiring long range. It can replace 757s, not 767s. It can outperform existing narrowbodies on 4000+ nm routes, but it's not optimized for those routes because of the wing.

Two things can be true at once (and I think both are):
1) The A321XLR is a no-brainer for Airbus and can provide some high-margin A320neo sales, and
2) the A321XLR isn't a product that will have much effect on Boeing's mid-market plans, which appear to involve an aircraft that's optimized either to be much bigger or to fly farther.

An A322 is a more difficult engineering challenge even if the A321XLR gets you halfway there, and I don't see any reason for Airbus to spend the money.
 
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Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Will Airbus move? A321XLR, A322 launching customers..

Tue Mar 26, 2019 4:35 pm

727200 wrote:
Rumor is those 350 slots were cancelled sometime ago and that the deposits were written off.

Ah, thank you for the definitive information. Who knew?
Murphy is an optimist
 
fjhc
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Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Will Airbus move? A321XLR, A322 launching customers..

Tue Mar 26, 2019 4:55 pm

Some people are going to say that UA are going to be cancelling the A350 order until the day they retire them, even if that's in 30 years time!
 
727200
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Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Will Airbus move? A321XLR, A322 launching customers..

Tue Mar 26, 2019 4:57 pm

Look at the last 10K filing. Specifically says the write-off of deposits for aircraft not taken.

Doesn't specify the manufacture,, but since they have ordered and still taking delivery of Boeing planes, and the only other order is for the 350s...connect the dots.
 
LSZH34
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Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Will Airbus move? A321XLR, A322 launching customers..

Tue Mar 26, 2019 5:03 pm

WeatherPilot wrote:
Airbus would be stupid NOT to announce an A321XLR or A322 at the Paris Show to take advantage of Boeing getting taken to the woodshed right now.


A rushed A322 is not worth the money if B will launch a MoM in the future anyway.
 
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Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Will Airbus move? A321XLR, A322 launching customers..

Tue Mar 26, 2019 5:10 pm

keesje wrote:
GEUltraFan9XGTF wrote:
musman9853 wrote:
without a rewing, this is imo putting lipstick on a pig. without a new wing, i dont think that this will be all that competitive with the 797. this will capture a decent portion of the upper nb market, but is that enough to stop the 797? imo its not


That is probably the biggest question from Boeing's side. Will Airbus do a new wing or not? Will Airbus do a clean sheet or not? (A32XXLR could just be a ruse.) Without a new wing or clean sheet, I think Boeing's NSA still has massive potential.


:arrow: I think Airbus will do just that: putting lipstick on the A321NEO and possibly stretch it a bit.

Think about about the water mouthing advantages of that approach:
:checkmark: save $4-5 Billion investment
:checkmark: no fight with authorities on A320 grandfathering (FAA will probably object & EASA is not in Airbus' pocket)
:checkmark: use of the newest but mature CFM LEAP & PRatt GTF engines
:checkmark: no 6-7 years rush time to market, but ~predictable 2022.
:checkmark: no supply chain re-invention when the market is eager for stability & capacity
:checkmark: 80-90% technical & cockpit commonality with the biggest NB fleet in the world
:checkmark: use of existing supply chain and final assembly lines in the Europe, USA and China
:checkmark: an empty weight (OEW) of 50-53t and profitable market price of $65-80 mill for Boeing to chew on.

Image


I hope the plane comes with that giant fly on the horizontal stab too!
Any landing you can walk away from is a good landing! It's a bonus if you can fly the plane again!!
 
Prost
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Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Will Airbus move? A321XLR, A322 launching customers..

Tue Mar 26, 2019 5:10 pm

This may be pie in the sky, but is there any way the A380 space can be usd as flexible assembly line for different models?
 
WayexTDI
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Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Will Airbus move? A321XLR, A322 launching customers..

Tue Mar 26, 2019 5:23 pm

727200 wrote:
Look at the last 10K filing. Specifically says the write-off of deposits for aircraft not taken.

Doesn't specify the manufacture,, but since they have ordered and still taking delivery of Boeing planes, and the only other order is for the 350s...connect the dots.

Last 10K Filing (dated 28-FEB-19) clearly states they have 45 firm commitments for A350 (as of 31-DEC-18).

There is no mention of deposits for aircraft not taken being written-off: search for the word "deposit" returned 14 hits and only one related to aircraft purchase (page 129 of the PDF, and that's on the 737 page). Searching for the words "not taken" returned 0 hits.

So, please point out exactly where the UAL 10K Filing shows they have decided to forego any deposit...
 
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Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Will Airbus move? A321XLR, A322 launching customers..

Tue Mar 26, 2019 5:33 pm

The question is, what missions are the most attractive for a high capacity, narrow body aircraft like an A322. Just look at the missions the 757-300 flies currently, mostly flights of a maximum of 5-6 hours in a regular configuration, mostly increasing economy class capacity vs. the 757-200 of the same airlines (UA/DL) or hauling tourists to sunny beach destinations from Germany (DE). So I think a stretched A321 with no wing modifications would be a low-cost opportunity for airbus to grab some more orders, which may go to Boeing when the 797 (whatever it will look like or its capabilities) is launched. The longer range missions can be targeted by an all new narrow body aircraft family, which airbus is already employing engineers for. Just my 2cts
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WIederling
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Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Will Airbus move? A321XLR, A322 launching customers..

Tue Mar 26, 2019 5:48 pm

727200 wrote:
Look at the last 10K filing. Specifically says the write-off of deposits for aircraft not taken.


Doesn't specify the manufacture,, but since they have ordered and still taking delivery of Boeing planes, and the only other order is for the 350s...connect the dots.

could you perchance provide a link and a page #, please ?
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seabosdca
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Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Will Airbus move? A321XLR, A322 launching customers..

Tue Mar 26, 2019 5:57 pm

Good God. This is a thread about the A321XLR and Airbus's plans for Paris, not yet another chance to make conspiracy theory claims that have already been made in 20 other threads that United hates the A350 so much that they're lying to investors about still having it on order.
 
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Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Will Airbus move? A321XLR, A322 launching customers..

Tue Mar 26, 2019 6:09 pm

seabosdca wrote:
Good God. This is a thread about the A321XLR and Airbus's plans for Paris, not yet another chance to make conspiracy theory claims that have already been made in 20 other threads that United hates the A350 so much that they're lying to investors about still having it on order.


It's a thread about a plane that currently doesn't exist and unknown plans about an Air Show that three months away. It's all fluff.
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Revelation
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Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Will Airbus move? A321XLR, A322 launching customers..

Tue Mar 26, 2019 6:44 pm

scbriml wrote:
seabosdca wrote:
Good God. This is a thread about the A321XLR and Airbus's plans for Paris, not yet another chance to make conspiracy theory claims that have already been made in 20 other threads that United hates the A350 so much that they're lying to investors about still having it on order.

It's a thread about a plane that currently doesn't exist and unknown plans about an Air Show that three months away.

Yes, well, what about that breaking news the thread is based on?

“There is a gap, a natural gap that needs to be filled, so I am not sure whether the A330 coming down…and the A321 coming up, fills the gap,” said John Vitale, president and chief executive officer of Avitas, speaking on a panel of appraisers at Airfinance Journal’s Korean Airfinance event, adding: “Airbus claims the A321 has all this range and that they can put in as many seats as they are talking about. Well, no you can’t in an equal comfort level.”

However, Vitale acknowledges a possible further stretch by Airbus of its A321neo, the A322, or enhanced versions, such as the ‘A321neo-plus’, or even an ‘A321neo-plus-plus’“pushes out the timing of the NMA aircraft.

So the A321 can't compete with NMA but it can disrupt its timing a bit. ( ref: https://leehamnews.com/2018/03/08/a321n ... ma-avitas/ )

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Nice topic for a new thread?

Perhaps we've discussed this one before...
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Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Will Airbus move? A321XLR, A322 launching customers..

Tue Mar 26, 2019 6:50 pm

seabosdca wrote:
I think an A321XLR launch at Paris is pretty likely, but let's not overthink it: it's an A321neo with a higher MTOW and a fuel tank configuration that's more sensible for airlines requiring long range. It can replace 757s, not 767s. It can outperform existing narrowbodies on 4000+ nm routes, but it's not optimized for those routes because of the wing.

Two things can be true at once (and I think both are):
1) The A321XLR is a no-brainer for Airbus and can provide some high-margin A320neo sales, and
2) the A321XLR isn't a product that will have much effect on Boeing's mid-market plans, which appear to involve an aircraft that's optimized either to be much bigger or to fly farther.

An A322 is a more difficult engineering challenge even if the A321XLR gets you halfway there, and I don't see any reason for Airbus to spend the money.


3) Won't let Boeing charge what it wants for the NMA, stiffing their profits (and business case).
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Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Will Airbus move? A321XLR, A322 launching customers..

Tue Mar 26, 2019 9:44 pm

Technically there are easy improvement paths for the A32xNEO, but demand for the current A320NEO family is already way above production capability. AFAIK the other NEO could use some higher production demand. Thus I think an A330NEO derivative is beter for Airbus than an A321XLR or A322. The best situation is if they can market both, but that's really unlikely.
 
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Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Will Airbus move? A321XLR, A322 launching customers..

Tue Mar 26, 2019 10:03 pm

WIederling wrote:
727200 wrote:
Look at the last 10K filing. Specifically says the write-off of deposits for aircraft not taken.


Doesn't specify the manufacture,, but since they have ordered and still taking delivery of Boeing planes, and the only other order is for the 350s...connect the dots.

could you perchance provide a link and a page #, please ?


What it actually says is this:

"During 2018, the Company also recorded $66 million ($51 million net of taxes) of fair value adjustments related to aircraft purchased off lease, write-offs of
unexercised aircraft purchase options and other impairments related to certain fleet types and international slots no longer in use."

Note 14- Special Charges is the title of this section, page 86. I posit that this does not disprove or prove the original assertion as the wording is different.

Is anyone able to reconcile the expired options with a previous United order? The chart for firm orders does not list any options still outstanding. Clearly something is not being taken up, but what type?
 
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Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Will Airbus move? A321XLR, A322 launching customers..

Tue Mar 26, 2019 10:11 pm

scbriml wrote:
keesje wrote:
Prospect airlines for the A321XLR: Iceandair, AirLingus, Jetblue, United, Delta, Chinese Airlines.


United must be a red hot customer. How else will they be able to dump those A350s that they're so desperate to get rid of? :duck:

N
By taking them on and leasing them out! Won't be the First time. United once own some MD80's we never flew at United. They were lased out.
 
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Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Will Airbus move? A321XLR, A322 launching customers..

Tue Mar 26, 2019 10:26 pm

Airbus has been a lot about evolution, incremental improvements to its production line. The A321XLR an step improvement to the A321LR, is the logical next step. I do not look at it as an answer to a possible NMA/797, if that should come, but going after low hanging fruit. An internal rearrangement of space to increase possible tankage, combined with a slightly raised MTOW and perhaps a slightly lowered OEW, as the new tank arrangement weighs less than the tanks in the A321LR, Increased belly space with full tankage compared to the A321LR.. All that for a very limited development cost, standard evolution of an Airbus frame offering increased capabilities with minimum change.

If Boeing should bring the NMA/797 Airbus will react to that. Perhaps with a new wing, or perhaps with a new model.
 
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Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Will Airbus move? A321XLR, A322 launching customers..

Wed Mar 27, 2019 3:50 am

LSZH34 wrote:
Airbus would be "stupid" to launch a potential A322 before B launches a NSA/MoM/797. As long as the A321 is the superior product in its class, there's no need for A to make a move.


Suppose Airbus launches the A322. And suppose there are some airlines that would like this plane more than they would like the A321. Airbus can charge them more $$$. If the A322 has more economic value to the airlines, Airbus can charge more.

Whether that pays for the development cost ... maybe not. But up-selling to customers is a very old tradition.
 
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Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Will Airbus move? A321XLR, A322 launching customers..

Wed Mar 27, 2019 3:52 am

DALCE wrote:
Why not start working on a true next gen narrowbody with type-commonality with the 220. Otherwise it will 'just' another A320 deriviate and all in all this frame is getting closer and closer to the end of the line developmentwise.
Start with a new design narrowbody in the same MOM-class as Boeing and the battle goes on for another couple of decades. Pockets are deep with current orderbooks.....

just my 0.02


Why would Airbus not use the A320 cockpit, rather than the A220 cockpit? Lets suppose I agree the A220 is newer and better. But (sadly) none of that matters. What matters is money, and the A320 cockpit is safe, functional, has many many more pilots certified in it.

You can argue I'm wrong (and that's fine, it's nice to learn) but your arguments should be about economics, not technical things.
 
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Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Will Airbus move? A321XLR, A322 launching customers..

Wed Mar 27, 2019 7:14 am

I wonder how Boeing would respond after Airbus launches an A321XLR / A322 duo. The 737-10 is an economical machine but range restricted. A MoM / NMA has been hanging over the market for many years now, but could still be downsized, lightened up to better suit high, capacity, frequency citypairs less than 2000NM apart. Like China, Europe markets. W'll see.
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WIederling
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Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Will Airbus move? A321XLR, A322 launching customers..

Wed Mar 27, 2019 7:56 am

m007j wrote:
WIederling wrote:
727200 wrote:
Look at the last 10K filing. Specifically says the write-off of deposits for aircraft not taken.


Doesn't specify the manufacture,, but since they have ordered and still taking delivery of Boeing planes, and the only other order is for the 350s...connect the dots.

could you perchance provide a link and a page #, please ?


What it actually says is this:

"During 2018, the Company also recorded $66 million ($51 million net of taxes) of fair value adjustments related to aircraft purchased off lease, write-offs of
unexercised aircraft purchase options and other impairments related to certain fleet types and international slots no longer in use
."

Note 14- Special Charges is the title of this section, page 86. I posit that this does not disprove or prove the original assertion as the wording is different.

Is anyone able to reconcile the expired options with a previous United order? The chart for firm orders does not list any options still outstanding. Clearly something is not being taken up, but what type?


thanks!
is the bolded passage a recurring text in every year? (i.e. is it a general portmanteau or a specific one?)
what do you get for ~$60m in deposits? ( apropos: what is the trade value of "route slots" ?)
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Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Will Airbus move? A321XLR, A322 launching customers..

Wed Mar 27, 2019 9:18 am

scbriml wrote:
keesje wrote:
Prospect airlines for the A321XLR: Iceandair, AirLingus, Jetblue, United, Delta, Chinese Airlines.


United must be a red hot customer. How else will they be able to dump those A350s that they're so desperate to get rid of? :duck:


Do you have a source regarding UA's intention of getting rid of the A350 Order? Not challenging but I have heard this several times but never found a source for it.

If they do, though, it will probably in favour to a Boeing Order (even if there's penalties)...

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