Moderators: jsumali2, richierich, ua900, PanAm_DC10, hOMSaR
keesje wrote:Prospect airlines for the A321XLR: Iceandair, AirLingus, Jetblue, United, Delta, Chinese Airlines.
LSZH34 wrote:Airbus would be "stupid" to launch a potential A322 before B launches a NSA/MoM/797. As long as the A321 is the superior product in its class, there's no need for A to make a move.
scbriml wrote:keesje wrote:Prospect airlines for the A321XLR: Iceandair, AirLingus, Jetblue, United, Delta, Chinese Airlines.
United must be a red hot customer. How else will they be able to dump those A350s that they're so desperate to get rid of?
727200 wrote:Rumor is those 350 slots were cancelled sometime ago and that the deposits were written off.
frmrCapCadet wrote:With the backlog of 320 I would say improving profits and the same for the 350 while also ramping of production is a bigger priority. If/when the 797 is announced Airbus will assure their customer base that it will have an appropriate response. (it likely already has several possible responses).
scbriml wrote:keesje wrote:Prospect airlines for the A321XLR: Iceandair, AirLingus, Jetblue, United, Delta, Chinese Airlines.
United must be a red hot customer. How else will they be able to dump those A350s that they're so desperate to get rid of?
musman9853 wrote:without a rewing, this is imo putting lipstick on a pig. without a new wing, i dont think that this will be all that competitive with the 797. this will capture a decent portion of the upper nb market, but is that enough to stop the 797? imo its not
GEUltraFan9XGTF wrote:musman9853 wrote:without a rewing, this is imo putting lipstick on a pig. without a new wing, i dont think that this will be all that competitive with the 797. this will capture a decent portion of the upper nb market, but is that enough to stop the 797? imo its not
That is probably the biggest question from Boeing's side. Will Airbus do a new wing or not? Will Airbus do a clean sheet or not? (A32XXLR could just be a ruse.) Without a new wing or clean sheet, I think Boeing's NSA still has massive potential.
WeatherPilot wrote:Airbus would be stupid NOT to announce an A321XLR or A322 at the Paris Show to take advantage of Boeing getting taken to the woodshed right now.
727200 wrote:scbriml wrote:keesje wrote:Prospect airlines for the A321XLR: Iceandair, AirLingus, Jetblue, United, Delta, Chinese Airlines.
United must be a red hot customer. How else will they be able to dump those A350s that they're so desperate to get rid of?
Rumor is those 350 slots were cancelled sometime ago and that the deposits were written off.
keesje wrote:GEUltraFan9XGTF wrote:musman9853 wrote:without a rewing, this is imo putting lipstick on a pig. without a new wing, i dont think that this will be all that competitive with the 797. this will capture a decent portion of the upper nb market, but is that enough to stop the 797? imo its not
That is probably the biggest question from Boeing's side. Will Airbus do a new wing or not? Will Airbus do a clean sheet or not? (A32XXLR could just be a ruse.) Without a new wing or clean sheet, I think Boeing's NSA still has massive potential.
I think Airbus will do just that: putting lipstick on the A321NEO and possibly stretch it a bit.
Think about about the water mouthing advantages of that approach:
save $4-5 Billion investment
no fight with authorities on A320 grandfathering (FAA will probably object & EASA is not in Airbus' pocket)
use of the newest but mature CFM LEAP & PRatt GTF engines
no 6-7 years rush time to market, but ~predictable 2022.
no supply chain re-invention when the market is eager for stability & capacity
80-90% technical & cockpit commonality with the biggest NB fleet in the world
use of existing supply chain and final assembly lines in the Europe, USA and China
an empty weight (OEW) of 50-53t and profitable market price of $65-80 mill for Boeing to chew on.
keesje wrote:If half the launching base for a A321 XLR / Plus would have to come from conversions of existing customers, I think the bigger customers and those with a longer haul/ capacity requirement would be approached.
Looking in the current back log, (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Airbus_A320neo_family_orders_and_deliveries#Orders_by_customer) & listening what the airlines communicate themselves, some possible launching customers pop up:
AirAsia, large backlog & longer flights in booming Asia markets
American Airlines, large backlog, transcon (capacity) and 757/767 retirements
Delta Air Lines, large backlog and TATL and S America destinations, biggest aging 757/767 fleet
Turkish Airlines, large backlog, East Asia - Europe hub ambitions
JetBlue, TATL, all but announced.
Qantas/Jetstart, large backog and Asian Ambitions, looking at reshuffling 787s/ A330s.
Lufthansa group, large NEO backlog and high volume slot restricted European flights
I think Boeing latest NMA launch deferral and known 6-7 aircraft development timeline has many airlines scratching their heads. Many can't / don't want to wait for 6-9 years for a substantial number of NMA's.
Source: https://www.scoopnest.com/user/FlightGlobal/997025706898051072-analysis-boeing-nma-when-and-who-will-order/
While the Airbus production / supply chain might theoretically be filled for years, substituting expensive A321XLR/A322 in existing A320 /A321 slots in a uncontested medium market space, offers better revenue potential than leaving the back log as is. And it's all about margin & market share.
727200 wrote:Rumor is those 350 slots were cancelled sometime ago and that the deposits were written off.
WeatherPilot wrote:Airbus would be stupid NOT to announce an A321XLR or A322 at the Paris Show to take advantage of Boeing getting taken to the woodshed right now.
keesje wrote:GEUltraFan9XGTF wrote:musman9853 wrote:without a rewing, this is imo putting lipstick on a pig. without a new wing, i dont think that this will be all that competitive with the 797. this will capture a decent portion of the upper nb market, but is that enough to stop the 797? imo its not
That is probably the biggest question from Boeing's side. Will Airbus do a new wing or not? Will Airbus do a clean sheet or not? (A32XXLR could just be a ruse.) Without a new wing or clean sheet, I think Boeing's NSA still has massive potential.
I think Airbus will do just that: putting lipstick on the A321NEO and possibly stretch it a bit.
Think about about the water mouthing advantages of that approach:
save $4-5 Billion investment
no fight with authorities on A320 grandfathering (FAA will probably object & EASA is not in Airbus' pocket)
use of the newest but mature CFM LEAP & PRatt GTF engines
no 6-7 years rush time to market, but ~predictable 2022.
no supply chain re-invention when the market is eager for stability & capacity
80-90% technical & cockpit commonality with the biggest NB fleet in the world
use of existing supply chain and final assembly lines in the Europe, USA and China
an empty weight (OEW) of 50-53t and profitable market price of $65-80 mill for Boeing to chew on.
727200 wrote:Look at the last 10K filing. Specifically says the write-off of deposits for aircraft not taken.
Doesn't specify the manufacture,, but since they have ordered and still taking delivery of Boeing planes, and the only other order is for the 350s...connect the dots.
727200 wrote:Look at the last 10K filing. Specifically says the write-off of deposits for aircraft not taken.
Doesn't specify the manufacture,, but since they have ordered and still taking delivery of Boeing planes, and the only other order is for the 350s...connect the dots.
seabosdca wrote:Good God. This is a thread about the A321XLR and Airbus's plans for Paris, not yet another chance to make conspiracy theory claims that have already been made in 20 other threads that United hates the A350 so much that they're lying to investors about still having it on order.
scbriml wrote:seabosdca wrote:Good God. This is a thread about the A321XLR and Airbus's plans for Paris, not yet another chance to make conspiracy theory claims that have already been made in 20 other threads that United hates the A350 so much that they're lying to investors about still having it on order.
It's a thread about a plane that currently doesn't exist and unknown plans about an Air Show that three months away.
“There is a gap, a natural gap that needs to be filled, so I am not sure whether the A330 coming down…and the A321 coming up, fills the gap,” said John Vitale, president and chief executive officer of Avitas, speaking on a panel of appraisers at Airfinance Journal’s Korean Airfinance event, adding: “Airbus claims the A321 has all this range and that they can put in as many seats as they are talking about. Well, no you can’t in an equal comfort level.”
However, Vitale acknowledges a possible further stretch by Airbus of its A321neo, the A322, or enhanced versions, such as the ‘A321neo-plus’, or even an ‘A321neo-plus-plus’“pushes out the timing of the NMA aircraft.”
seabosdca wrote:I think an A321XLR launch at Paris is pretty likely, but let's not overthink it: it's an A321neo with a higher MTOW and a fuel tank configuration that's more sensible for airlines requiring long range. It can replace 757s, not 767s. It can outperform existing narrowbodies on 4000+ nm routes, but it's not optimized for those routes because of the wing.
Two things can be true at once (and I think both are):
1) The A321XLR is a no-brainer for Airbus and can provide some high-margin A320neo sales, and
2) the A321XLR isn't a product that will have much effect on Boeing's mid-market plans, which appear to involve an aircraft that's optimized either to be much bigger or to fly farther.
An A322 is a more difficult engineering challenge even if the A321XLR gets you halfway there, and I don't see any reason for Airbus to spend the money.
WIederling wrote:727200 wrote:Look at the last 10K filing. Specifically says the write-off of deposits for aircraft not taken.
Doesn't specify the manufacture,, but since they have ordered and still taking delivery of Boeing planes, and the only other order is for the 350s...connect the dots.
could you perchance provide a link and a page #, please ?
scbriml wrote:keesje wrote:Prospect airlines for the A321XLR: Iceandair, AirLingus, Jetblue, United, Delta, Chinese Airlines.
United must be a red hot customer. How else will they be able to dump those A350s that they're so desperate to get rid of?
LSZH34 wrote:Airbus would be "stupid" to launch a potential A322 before B launches a NSA/MoM/797. As long as the A321 is the superior product in its class, there's no need for A to make a move.
DALCE wrote:Why not start working on a true next gen narrowbody with type-commonality with the 220. Otherwise it will 'just' another A320 deriviate and all in all this frame is getting closer and closer to the end of the line developmentwise.
Start with a new design narrowbody in the same MOM-class as Boeing and the battle goes on for another couple of decades. Pockets are deep with current orderbooks.....
just my 0.02
m007j wrote:WIederling wrote:727200 wrote:Look at the last 10K filing. Specifically says the write-off of deposits for aircraft not taken.
Doesn't specify the manufacture,, but since they have ordered and still taking delivery of Boeing planes, and the only other order is for the 350s...connect the dots.
could you perchance provide a link and a page #, please ?
What it actually says is this:
"During 2018, the Company also recorded $66 million ($51 million net of taxes) of fair value adjustments related to aircraft purchased off lease, write-offs of
unexercised aircraft purchase options and other impairments related to certain fleet types and international slots no longer in use."
Note 14- Special Charges is the title of this section, page 86. I posit that this does not disprove or prove the original assertion as the wording is different.
Is anyone able to reconcile the expired options with a previous United order? The chart for firm orders does not list any options still outstanding. Clearly something is not being taken up, but what type?
scbriml wrote:keesje wrote:Prospect airlines for the A321XLR: Iceandair, AirLingus, Jetblue, United, Delta, Chinese Airlines.
United must be a red hot customer. How else will they be able to dump those A350s that they're so desperate to get rid of?