toltommy
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Icelandair will not return to CLE, blames MAX8

Tue Mar 26, 2019 11:26 pm

Icelandair had announced that they will not resume service to CLE this summer, blaming the decision on the grounding of their 3 737 MAX 8 aircraft...

https://www.cleveland.com/news/2019/03/ ... -woes.html
A300/A310/A319/A320/A321/A332/A333/707/712/727/732/733/734/735/738/739/752/753/762/763/764/772/789/DC8/DC9-10/30/40/50/MD81/83/87/88/90/L1011-/250/500/CRJ200/440/700/900/EMB135/140/145/170/175/190/328Jet/F70/SF3/BE1/J31
 
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zkojq
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Re: Icelandair will not return to CLE, blames MAX8

Tue Mar 26, 2019 11:30 pm

What has Icelandair been doing to mitigate 737-8MAX groundings? Wet leased aircraft? Cancelled services? More intensive use of the 757s?
First to fly the 787-9
 
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enilria
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Re: Icelandair will not return to CLE, blames MAX8

Tue Mar 26, 2019 11:39 pm

I predicted they would not return back in the Fall and was savaged. I think this makes it clear they lost a lot of money last year in the market, although many things have changed. I don’t doubt the MAX is an issue, but the planners are also going to drop the riskiest route first. Hopefully CLE finds something else.
Last edited by enilria on Tue Mar 26, 2019 11:40 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
AirNovaBAe146
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Re: Icelandair will not return to CLE, blames MAX8

Tue Mar 26, 2019 11:40 pm

Icelandair is the rare carrier that might not be taking too much of a hit with the Max 8 groundings. Their schedule really slows down over the late fall / winter / early spring and I suspect they have the 757 capacity and additional staff to make up for any Max 8 issues, especially as they only have three.

Personally, I think the Max 8 is going to become a boogeyman for all operators to use against Boeing, and (justifiably) go for compensation for their scheduling cancellations / passenger rebookings. It also serves as a convenient foil for markets which may have been marginal like CLE, making axing service a touch easier.
 
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piedmontf284000
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Re: Icelandair will not return to CLE, blames MAX8

Tue Mar 26, 2019 11:55 pm

While the MAX can be blamed for short term disruption of service to CLE, the plane will be back in service by June and this route wasn't to restart until may 17th. Ending service completely to CLE indicates that FI are just using this as an excuse for an underperforming market. Poor Cleveland. First WW, and now FI. If I were MCI, I would be a fairly worried.
 
Iluvtofly
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Re: Icelandair will not return to CLE, blames MAX8

Wed Mar 27, 2019 12:01 am

piedmontf284000 wrote:
While the MAX can be blamed for short term disruption of service to CLE, the plane will be back in service by June and this route wasn't to restart until may 17th. Ending service completely to CLE indicates that FI are just using this as an excuse for an underperforming market. Poor Cleveland. First WW, and now FI. If I were MCI, I would be a fairly worried.


So you have been advised that the aircraft will be back in service by June .... please share the details !
 
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piedmontf284000
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Re: Icelandair will not return to CLE, blames MAX8

Wed Mar 27, 2019 12:05 am

Iluvtofly wrote:
piedmontf284000 wrote:
While the MAX can be blamed for short term disruption of service to CLE, the plane will be back in service by June and this route wasn't to restart until may 17th. Ending service completely to CLE indicates that FI are just using this as an excuse for an underperforming market. Poor Cleveland. First WW, and now FI. If I were MCI, I would be a fairly worried.


So you have been advised that the aircraft will be back in service by June .... please share the details !


I will bet my house and life savings on it. In fact I'm being conservative with that estimate.
 
SFOtoORD
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Re: Icelandair will not return to CLE, blames MAX8

Wed Mar 27, 2019 12:33 am

So the MAX8 grounding was good for their business model given how much money they’re losing on many of these routes.
 
strangeplanes
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Re: Icelandair will not return to CLE, blames MAX8

Wed Mar 27, 2019 12:35 am

piedmontf284000 wrote:
While the MAX can be blamed for short term disruption of service to CLE, the plane will be back in service by June and this route wasn't to restart until may 17th. Ending service completely to CLE indicates that FI are just using this as an excuse for an underperforming market. Poor Cleveland. First WW, and now FI. If I were MCI, I would be a fairly worried.

Only somewhat worried about MCI. Bookings have been strong so far and the 757 was already planned to operate part of the season.
 
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OA412
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Re: Icelandair will not return to CLE, blames MAX8

Wed Mar 27, 2019 12:48 am

I can’t recall, had this always been planned as a seasonal service?
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VS4ever
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Re: Icelandair will not return to CLE, blames MAX8

Wed Mar 27, 2019 1:12 am

I think this might help tell the story, these numbers are from T-100's for Jan to September. I've bolded the lowest load routes. Numbers are total flights YTD, total seats, total pax, load %
ANC-KEF 80 14,644 11,421 77.99%
BOS-KEF 795 194,410 157,573 81.05%
BWI-KEF 143 26,215 19,098 72.85%
CLE-KEF 194 31,132 21,709 69.73%
DEN-KEF 528 96,576 76,782 79.50%
DFW-KEF 138 25,316 17,772 70.20%
EWR-KEF 525 106,354 86,390 81.23%
IAD-KEF 741 142,159 115,062 80.94%
JFK-KEF 696 160,001 126,848 79.28%
MCI-KEF 111 20,344 13,767 67.67%
MCO-KEF 246 45,080 34,870 77.35%
MSP-KEF 518 95,364 75,381 79.05%
ORD-KEF 688 128,792 99,365 77.15%
PDX-KEF 264 48,352 37,679 77.93%
PHL-KEF 152 24,320 18,359 75.49%
SEA-KEF 812 152,986 128,092 83.73%
SFO-KEF 139 36,418 27,075 74.35%
TPA-KEF 107 19,602 13,797 70.39%
Grand Total 6877 1,368,065 1,081,040 79.02%
That feeling when you sit at the end of a runway, brakes are released and the raw power takes over. Now that is a thing of beauty and it never gets old.
 
N757ST
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Re: Icelandair will not return to CLE, blames MAX8

Wed Mar 27, 2019 1:17 am

piedmontf284000 wrote:
Iluvtofly wrote:
piedmontf284000 wrote:
While the MAX can be blamed for short term disruption of service to CLE, the plane will be back in service by June and this route wasn't to restart until may 17th. Ending service completely to CLE indicates that FI are just using this as an excuse for an underperforming market. Poor Cleveland. First WW, and now FI. If I were MCI, I would be a fairly worried.


So you have been advised that the aircraft will be back in service by June .... please share the details !


I will bet my house and life savings on it. In fact I'm being conservative with that estimate.


I wouldn't rule out the need for simulator training in a MAX sim to address MCAS issues, even with software fix. There are so few of those certified world wide that if it was to happen I think that would be an obstacle to getting the world wide fleet airborne, especially at larger airlines.
 
AaronPGH
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Re: Icelandair will not return to CLE, blames MAX8

Wed Mar 27, 2019 1:17 am

Wow, none of those loads are particularly great.
 
ncflyer
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Re: Icelandair will not return to CLE, blames MAX8

Wed Mar 27, 2019 1:22 am

Those loads are with WW also flying the route. I don’t get why CLE was chosen given that there are many other low load routes. Guess it must be the yields. And I must say they did a horrible job sticking with the route and showing some patience. You’re not gonna get people to change overnight.
 
klm617
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Re: Icelandair will not return to CLE, blames MAX8

Wed Mar 27, 2019 1:23 am

Very disappointing news indeed. Does that just leave MCI left from KEF's grand expansion last summer.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
mjoelnir
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Re: Icelandair will not return to CLE, blames MAX8

Wed Mar 27, 2019 1:27 am

enilria wrote:
I predicted they would not return back in the Fall and was savaged. I think this makes it clear they lost a lot of money last year in the market, although many things have changed. I don’t doubt the MAX is an issue, but the planners are also going to drop the riskiest route first. Hopefully CLE finds something else.


The 737-8 is their smallest frame. Bought also to serve thinner routes. I find it quite logical, that not being able to use the 737-8, brings most pressure on marginal routes. Both through higher trip cost and the need for more passengers to fill the frame.
 
klm617
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Re: Icelandair will not return to CLE, blames MAX8

Wed Mar 27, 2019 1:28 am

AaronPGH wrote:
Wow, none of those loads are particularly great.


No they aren't even with the summer included and low fares. Wonder how BOS would be without the B6 feed.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
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VS4ever
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Re: Icelandair will not return to CLE, blames MAX8

Wed Mar 27, 2019 1:28 am

for s**ts and giggles i also happen to have the WW numbers for the same period so you can see the comparison

BOS-KEF 544 119,520 98,260 82.21%
BWI-KEF 684 150,480 132,167 87.83%
CLE-KEF 174 38,280 28,930 75.57%
CVG-KEF 195 42,900 34,010 79.28%
DFW-KEF 105 36,750 29,855 81.24%
DTW-KEF 181 39,820 31,070 78.03%
EWR-KEF 733 161,100 105,434 65.45%
JFK-KEF 316 69,320 37,841 54.59%
LAX-KEF 421 146,830 124,319 84.67%
MIA-KEF 36 9,220 7,059 76.56%
ORD-KEF 507 122,700 97,794 79.70%
PIT-KEF 392 91,816 68,788 74.92%
SFO-KEF 403 138,710 115,335 83.15%
STL-KEF 181 39,530 29,268 74.04%
Grand Total 4872 1,206,976 940,130 77.89%
That feeling when you sit at the end of a runway, brakes are released and the raw power takes over. Now that is a thing of beauty and it never gets old.
 
klm617
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Re: Icelandair will not return to CLE, blames MAX8

Wed Mar 27, 2019 1:30 am

mjoelnir wrote:
enilria wrote:
I predicted they would not return back in the Fall and was savaged. I think this makes it clear they lost a lot of money last year in the market, although many things have changed. I don’t doubt the MAX is an issue, but the planners are also going to drop the riskiest route first. Hopefully CLE finds something else.


The 737-8 is their smallest frame. Bought also to serve thinner routes. I find it quite logical, that not being able to use the 737-8, brings most pressure on marginal routes. Both through higher trip cost and the need for more passengers to fill the frame.



Yes but the grounding is temporary and if FI had faith that CLE would work well for them don't you think they would have put a 757 on the route until the 737 was allowed to fly again. In the short term I would take a loss if I thought CLE-KEF was a cash cow if I were FI.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
c933103
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Re: Icelandair will not return to CLE, blames MAX8

Wed Mar 27, 2019 1:39 am

klm617 wrote:
mjoelnir wrote:
enilria wrote:
I predicted they would not return back in the Fall and was savaged. I think this makes it clear they lost a lot of money last year in the market, although many things have changed. I don’t doubt the MAX is an issue, but the planners are also going to drop the riskiest route first. Hopefully CLE finds something else.


The 737-8 is their smallest frame. Bought also to serve thinner routes. I find it quite logical, that not being able to use the 737-8, brings most pressure on marginal routes. Both through higher trip cost and the need for more passengers to fill the frame.



Yes but the grounding is temporary and if FI had faith that CLE would work well for them don't you think they would have put a 757 on the route until the 737 was allowed to fly again. In the short term I would take a loss if I thought CLE-KEF was a cash cow if I were FI.

757 is somewhat larger than Max8, burn quite much more fuel, and they also only have a limited number of 757.

Icelandair Max 8 have about 150 seats while their 752 have about 180. Switching the aircraft directly would drop the load factor from a somewhat bearable 70% in term of first year in service to a low 58% load factor.
Last edited by c933103 on Wed Mar 27, 2019 1:46 am, edited 1 time in total.
This is a placeholder.
 
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CLEguy
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Re: Icelandair will not return to CLE, blames MAX8

Wed Mar 27, 2019 1:42 am

FI is also canceling the resumption of Halifax, ostensibly due to Max grounding: https://www.thechronicleherald.ca/busin ... ts-295331/
 
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SheikhDjibouti
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Re: Icelandair will not return to CLE, blames MAX8

Wed Mar 27, 2019 1:45 am

piedmontf284000 wrote:
Iluvtofly wrote:
piedmontf284000 wrote:
While the MAX can be blamed for short term disruption of service to CLE, the plane will be back in service by June and this route wasn't to restart until may 17th. Ending service completely to CLE indicates that FI are just using this as an excuse for an underperforming market. Poor Cleveland. First WW, and now FI. If I were MCI, I would be a fairly worried.


So you have been advised that the aircraft will be back in service by June .... please share the details !


I will bet my house and life savings on it. In fact I'm being conservative with that estimate.

Yes, and it appears Boeing have done the same. :duck:
Nothing to see here; move along please.
 
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pitbosflyer
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Re: Icelandair will not return to CLE, blames MAX8

Wed Mar 27, 2019 1:53 am

klm617 wrote:
AaronPGH wrote:
Wow, none of those loads are particularly great.


No they aren't even with the summer included and low fares. Wonder how BOS would be without the B6 feed.


Although I'm sure the B6 feed helps alot. It isn't a total apples to oranges comparison. They fly their 767 on the BOS route. The load factor would be pretty high if it was their 757.
 
MSPNWA
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Re: Icelandair will not return to CLE, blames MAX8

Wed Mar 27, 2019 1:55 am

Convenient excuse to cut a marginal route. Not that the MAX grounding isn't a factor, but it's not the most important reason this route isn't returning.
 
KentB27
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Re: Icelandair will not return to CLE, blames MAX8

Wed Mar 27, 2019 2:56 am

piedmontf284000 wrote:
While the MAX can be blamed for short term disruption of service to CLE, the plane will be back in service by June and this route wasn't to restart until may 17th. Ending service completely to CLE indicates that FI are just using this as an excuse for an underperforming market. Poor Cleveland. First WW, and now FI. If I were MCI, I would be a fairly worried.


I was thinking the same thing. If FI is willing to pull out of CLE then MCI could be in jeopardy as well. Although I had heard the MCI-KEF route did quite well in 2018.
Last edited by KentB27 on Wed Mar 27, 2019 2:59 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
strangeplanes
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Re: Icelandair will not return to CLE, blames MAX8

Wed Mar 27, 2019 3:04 am

KentB27 wrote:
piedmontf284000 wrote:
While the MAX can be blamed for short term disruption of service to CLE, the plane will be back in service by June and this route wasn't to restart until may 17th. Ending service completely to CLE indicates that FI are just using this as an excuse for an underperforming market. Poor Cleveland. First WW, and now FI. If I were MCI, I would be a fairly worried.


I was thinking the same thing. If FI is willing to pull out of CLE then MCI could be in jeopardy as well. Although I had heard the MCI-KEF route did quite well in 2018.

‘18 had low LF but it also announced in early 2018. ‘19 are pretty strong so far which must be what’s keeping MCI alive (for now).
 
Lapplander800
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Re: Icelandair will not return to CLE, blames MAX8

Wed Mar 27, 2019 3:08 am

AirNovaBAe146 wrote:
Icelandair is the rare carrier that might not be taking too much of a hit with the Max 8 groundings. Their schedule really slows down over the late fall / winter / early spring and I suspect they have the 757 capacity and additional staff to make up for any Max 8 issues, especially as they only have three.


The summer was planned for use of 9 MAX frames (3 arrived last year, 6 in Q1/2) and 3 757s taken out of service. One 757 is already being scrapped. Not having those 9 MAX frames is quite the bummer when you are getting into high season and have less than 40 frames.
 
greenair727
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Re: Icelandair will not return to CLE, blames MAX8

Wed Mar 27, 2019 3:13 am

So, using the stats above, for CLE-KEF, FI had a 70% LF and WW had 76% and the frequency last year was 9x/week. So clearly FI at 7x or even 5x (as was planned) could easily reach a healthy 90%+ even with higher fares as the demand was clearly there. I'm not sure what is really up with FI. I'm in Cleveland and heard an ad THIS morning for FI on the radio.
 
Lapplander800
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Re: Icelandair will not return to CLE, blames MAX8

Wed Mar 27, 2019 3:26 am

klm617 wrote:
AaronPGH wrote:
Wow, none of those loads are particularly great.


No they aren't even with the summer included and low fares. Wonder how BOS would be without the B6 feed.


What are good loads then?

I looked at some others for the same period;
Icelandair US destinations 79% as per above
Icelandair ALL destinations 81.2% (*down 2.2% from '17)
Alaska 83.8%
Delta 85.6%
AA 83.9%
United 83.9%
Lufthansa Group 82.0%
BA 82.8%
Southwest 83.4%

* Icelandair had a major issue last summer with network imbalance where they sold out of their KEF-EU quicker than the KEF-US legs and therefore couldn't sell as many US-EU connections as they could have.
EU load factor last summer was in the low %90's.

EDIT: Added Icelandair LF for all destinations.
 
Jshank83
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Re: Icelandair will not return to CLE, blames MAX8

Wed Mar 27, 2019 4:12 am

Depends on how much profit they have per ticket. Usually if a load is above 80% it seems to be pretty safe, although some ULCC want higher.

But for example, if you are making $20 a ticket at 70% and $1 a ticket at 80% than the 70% is better for you. So more goes into it than LF obviously.
 
pmanni1
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Re: Icelandair will not return to CLE, blames MAX8

Wed Mar 27, 2019 10:01 am

VS4ever wrote:
for s**ts and giggles i also happen to have the WW numbers for the same period so you can see the comparison

BOS-KEF 544 119,520 98,260 82.21%
BWI-KEF 684 150,480 132,167 87.83%
CLE-KEF 174 38,280 28,930 75.57%
CVG-KEF 195 42,900 34,010 79.28%
DFW-KEF 105 36,750 29,855 81.24%
DTW-KEF 181 39,820 31,070 78.03%
EWR-KEF 733 161,100 105,434 65.45%
JFK-KEF 316 69,320 37,841 54.59%
LAX-KEF 421 146,830 124,319 84.67%
MIA-KEF 36 9,220 7,059 76.56%
ORD-KEF 507 122,700 97,794 79.70%
PIT-KEF 392 91,816 68,788 74.92%
SFO-KEF 403 138,710 115,335 83.15%
STL-KEF 181 39,530 29,268 74.04%
Grand Total 4872 1,206,976 940,130 77.89%


Head scratcher that EWR had one of the worst load factors and that's one of the few routes they kept.
 
akb88
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Re: Icelandair will not return to CLE, blames MAX8

Wed Mar 27, 2019 10:08 am

pmanni1 wrote:
VS4ever wrote:
for s**ts and giggles i also happen to have the WW numbers for the same period so you can see the comparison

BOS-KEF 544 119,520 98,260 82.21%
BWI-KEF 684 150,480 132,167 87.83%
CLE-KEF 174 38,280 28,930 75.57%
CVG-KEF 195 42,900 34,010 79.28%
DFW-KEF 105 36,750 29,855 81.24%
DTW-KEF 181 39,820 31,070 78.03%
EWR-KEF 733 161,100 105,434 65.45%
JFK-KEF 316 69,320 37,841 54.59%
LAX-KEF 421 146,830 124,319 84.67%
MIA-KEF 36 9,220 7,059 76.56%
ORD-KEF 507 122,700 97,794 79.70%
PIT-KEF 392 91,816 68,788 74.92%
SFO-KEF 403 138,710 115,335 83.15%
STL-KEF 181 39,530 29,268 74.04%
Grand Total 4872 1,206,976 940,130 77.89%


Head scratcher that EWR had one of the worst load factors and that's one of the few routes they kept.


Those numbers are for WOW Air. Icelandairs number for EWR are amongst their highest.
 
klm617
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Re: Icelandair will not return to CLE, blames MAX8

Wed Mar 27, 2019 10:09 am

I think the best bet for CLE is a twice weekly summer only narrow body on CLE-LGW and allow it to grow naturally.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
klm617
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Re: Icelandair will not return to CLE, blames MAX8

Wed Mar 27, 2019 10:10 am

akb88 wrote:
pmanni1 wrote:
VS4ever wrote:
for s**ts and giggles i also happen to have the WW numbers for the same period so you can see the comparison

BOS-KEF 544 119,520 98,260 82.21%
BWI-KEF 684 150,480 132,167 87.83%
CLE-KEF 174 38,280 28,930 75.57%
CVG-KEF 195 42,900 34,010 79.28%
DFW-KEF 105 36,750 29,855 81.24%
DTW-KEF 181 39,820 31,070 78.03%
EWR-KEF 733 161,100 105,434 65.45%
JFK-KEF 316 69,320 37,841 54.59%
LAX-KEF 421 146,830 124,319 84.67%
MIA-KEF 36 9,220 7,059 76.56%
ORD-KEF 507 122,700 97,794 79.70%
PIT-KEF 392 91,816 68,788 74.92%
SFO-KEF 403 138,710 115,335 83.15%
STL-KEF 181 39,530 29,268 74.04%
Grand Total 4872 1,206,976 940,130 77.89%


Head scratcher that EWR had one of the worst load factors and that's one of the few routes they kept.


Those numbers are for WOW Air. Icelandairs number for EWR are amongst their highest.


And not to mention before everything fell apart WW was going to go 2 daily on EWR-KEF and one being an A330.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
klm617
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Re: Icelandair will not return to CLE, blames MAX8

Wed Mar 27, 2019 10:12 am

CLEguy wrote:
FI is also canceling the resumption of Halifax, ostensibly due to Max grounding: https://www.thechronicleherald.ca/busin ... ts-295331/


Actually YHZ was FI's first Canadian destination back in the day with a 737-400.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
SCQ83
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Re: Icelandair will not return to CLE, blames MAX8

Wed Mar 27, 2019 10:37 am

It looks like the Icelandic bubble has burst. This is what KEF is losing compared to S18:

- Alicante (Primera Air)
- Bremen (Germania)
- Cincinnati (WOW)
- Cleveland (Icelandair)
- Cleveland (WOW)
- Cologne (Eurowings)
- Dallas (Icelandair)
- Dallas (WOW)
- Dresden (Germania)
- Düsseldorf (Eurowings)
- Düsseldorf (WOW)
- Edinburgh (WOW)
- Gran Canaria (Primera Air)
- Halifax (Icelandair)
- London Gatwick (WOW)
- Los Angeles (WOW)
- Luxembourg (Luxair)
- Málaga (Primera Air)
- New York JFK (WOW)
- Nuremberg (Germania)
- Palma de Mallorca (Primera Air)
- Pittsburgh (WOW)
- San Francisco (WOW)
- St Louis (WOW)
- Stuttgart (Eurowings)
- Tenerife Sur (Primera Air)
- Trieste (Primera Air)

Also interesting that DEL (WOW), DUS (Icelandair) and FCO (Norwegian) started in W18 and are already being chopped.

New routes I can see are ARN in SAS and KRK in W6 from September.
 
klm617
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Re: Icelandair will not return to CLE, blames MAX8

Wed Mar 27, 2019 10:45 am

SCQ83 wrote:
It looks like the Icelandic bubble has burst. This is what KEF is losing compared to S18:

- Alicante (Primera Air)
- Bremen (Germania)
- Cincinnati (WOW)
- Cleveland (Icelandair)
- Cleveland (WOW)
- Cologne (Eurowings)
- Dallas (Icelandair)
- Dallas (WOW)
- Dresden (Germania)
- Düsseldorf (Eurowings)
- Düsseldorf (WOW)
- Edinburgh (WOW)
- Gran Canaria (Primera Air)
- Halifax (Icelandair)
- London Gatwick (WOW)
- Los Angeles (WOW)
- Luxembourg (Luxair)
- Málaga (Primera Air)
- New York JFK (WOW)
- Nuremberg (Germania)
- Palma de Mallorca (Primera Air)
- Pittsburgh (WOW)
- San Francisco (WOW)
- St Louis (WOW)
- Stuttgart (Eurowings)
- Tenerife Sur (Primera Air)
- Trieste (Primera Air)

Also interesting that DEL (WOW), DUS (Icelandair) and FCO (Norwegian) started in W18 and are already being chopped.

New routes I can see are ARN in SAS and KRK in W6 from September.


Plus Baltimore (Icelandair)
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
SCQ83
Posts: 5125
Joined: Wed Oct 03, 2012 8:32 pm

Re: Icelandair will not return to CLE, blames MAX8

Wed Mar 27, 2019 10:48 am

klm617 wrote:
Plus Baltimore (Icelandair)


Thanks. The list is too long :D

The list is very telling thou.

Look at the German market. Germania goes bust. Icelandair and WOW cancel some destinations there. So what does Eurowings do? In a "normal" market EW would profit from those bankruptcies / cancellations to increase their flights to KEF or at least to keep the same flights and increase fares. But what do they do? They also chop most of their destinations. Mega bubble.
 
mjoelnir
Posts: 8361
Joined: Sun Feb 03, 2013 11:06 pm

Re: Icelandair will not return to CLE, blames MAX8

Wed Mar 27, 2019 10:53 am

N757ST wrote:
piedmontf284000 wrote:
Iluvtofly wrote:

So you have been advised that the aircraft will be back in service by June .... please share the details !


I will bet my house and life savings on it. In fact I'm being conservative with that estimate.


I wouldn't rule out the need for simulator training in a MAX sim to address MCAS issues, even with software fix. There are so few of those certified world wide that if it was to happen I think that would be an obstacle to getting the world wide fleet airborne, especially at larger airlines.



Icelandair got one of the few 737MAX simulators delivered to customers. Icelandair 737 pilots trained on this simulator.

Regrettably Boeing seems to have made sure that these simulators would not show MCAS and MCAS failure mode and I assume the AoA failure mode encountered by the Lion Air frame..

I would look at it being very optimistic to declare that the 737MAX will fly again in June.

One of the big problems will be that Icelandair will not have enough 757 available to replace the 9 MAX that should have been used this summer. The problem is not the reduction in 757 numbers at Icelandair, the frame that is scraped is replaced by a slightly newer frame bought from AA, but that some 757 have been earmarked for other service than flying for Icelandair. To miss out 9 frames this summer is a big bite for Icelandair.

I have the feeling that Icelandair is looking for additional lift this summer.
 
WaywardMemphian
Posts: 1203
Joined: Sat Dec 13, 2014 9:05 pm

Re: Icelandair will not return to CLE, blames MAX8

Wed Mar 27, 2019 11:17 am

VS4ever wrote:
I think this might help tell the story, these numbers are from T-100's for Jan to September. I've bolded the lowest load routes. Numbers are total flights YTD, total seats, total pax, load %
ANC-KEF 80 14,644 11,421 77.99%
BOS-KEF 795 194,410 157,573 81.05%
BWI-KEF 143 26,215 19,098 72.85%
CLE-KEF 194 31,132 21,709 69.73%
DEN-KEF 528 96,576 76,782 79.50%
DFW-KEF 138 25,316 17,772 70.20%
EWR-KEF 525 106,354 86,390 81.23%
IAD-KEF 741 142,159 115,062 80.94%
JFK-KEF 696 160,001 126,848 79.28%
MCI-KEF 111 20,344 13,767 67.67%
MCO-KEF 246 45,080 34,870 77.35%
MSP-KEF 518 95,364 75,381 79.05%
ORD-KEF 688 128,792 99,365 77.15%
PDX-KEF 264 48,352 37,679 77.93%
PHL-KEF 152 24,320 18,359 75.49%
SEA-KEF 812 152,986 128,092 83.73%
SFO-KEF 139 36,418 27,075 74.35%
TPA-KEF 107 19,602 13,797 70.39%
Grand Total 6877 1,368,065 1,081,040 79.02%


American starting that route at DFW and being competitive on price hurt. A Coworker flew.XNA-DFW-KEF last.summer cause the cost was close enough to skip a drive to MCI for Icelandic.
 
User avatar
SRQKEF
Posts: 1829
Joined: Fri Jun 17, 2011 7:10 pm

Re: Icelandair will not return to CLE, blames MAX8

Wed Mar 27, 2019 12:08 pm

SCQ83 wrote:
klm617 wrote:
Plus Baltimore (Icelandair)


Thanks. The list is too long :D

The list is very telling thou.

Look at the German market. Germania goes bust. Icelandair and WOW cancel some destinations there. So what does Eurowings do? In a "normal" market EW would profit from those bankruptcies / cancellations to increase their flights to KEF or at least to keep the same flights and increase fares. But what do they do? They also chop most of their destinations. Mega bubble.


To be fair, FI has added daily frequencies to each of FRA, HAM, MUC and TXL next summer (that is, at least if the MAX returns). But yes, some of those destinations were not sustainable.
Nothing compares to taking off in an empty 757 with full thrust!
 
smokeybandit
Posts: 1029
Joined: Mon Mar 17, 2014 3:24 pm

Re: Icelandair will not return to CLE, blames MAX8

Wed Mar 27, 2019 1:07 pm

MAX8, no matter the resolution, will be used as a crutch/leverage by numerous entities for the next few yearsa.
 
RJNUT
Posts: 1764
Joined: Thu Dec 30, 1999 1:58 am

Re: Icelandair will not return to CLE, blames MAX8

Wed Mar 27, 2019 2:00 pm

Might be a blessing in disguise for CLE as it may improve chances for EI or possibly others, maybe DL to CDG or such.
 
strangeplanes
Posts: 73
Joined: Mon Sep 24, 2018 6:16 pm

Re: Icelandair will not return to CLE, blames MAX8

Wed Mar 27, 2019 2:41 pm

I was playing around with FI’s MCI route. It looks like the May 27th flight is already more than 72% booked. June looks to be in the 50-60% range. That seems pretty high this far out. I am wondering if anyone knows how FI CLE sales were fairing before the cut?
 
ncflyer
Posts: 1133
Joined: Tue Sep 05, 2000 7:03 pm

Re: Icelandair will not return to CLE, blames MAX8

Wed Mar 27, 2019 2:50 pm

RJNUT wrote:
Might be a blessing in disguise for CLE as it may improve chances for EI or possibly others, maybe DL to CDG or such.


As someone wrote on the Cleveland thread, it's a little optimistic to assume a potential new airline would take away a positive from what happened. The worst was the steady drip of reduction. First it was year round, then it was to start in March, then May, then a frequency was reduced, then it was cut altogether. What positive messaging comes out of that?

Nice to hear that MCI bookings look pretty good. What will be hard is sustaining it. There's an initial rush of latent demand and excitement or people saying "what the heck I'll try a trip to Iceland instead of Disney World." What's hard is sustaining that, especially with a seasonal, non-daily schedule that is not tailored to business travelers. Low fare destinations like AZ, FL, Vegas get plenty of repeat business, Icelandair destinations to/from MCI--- time will tell.
 
Lapplander800
Posts: 85
Joined: Sat Jun 30, 2018 4:56 pm

Re: Icelandair will not return to CLE, blames MAX8

Wed Mar 27, 2019 2:57 pm

SCQ83 wrote:
Also interesting that DEL (WOW), DUS (Icelandair) and FCO (Norwegian) started in W18 and are already being chopped.


DUS on Icelandair hasn't started yet. It was originally scheduled to start in W18, yet pushed to S19 and is very bookable... for now.
 
User avatar
piedmontf284000
Posts: 406
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 12:00 pm

Re: Icelandair will not return to CLE, blames MAX8

Wed Mar 27, 2019 3:17 pm

mjoelnir wrote:
N757ST wrote:
piedmontf284000 wrote:

I will bet my house and life savings on it. In fact I'm being conservative with that estimate.


I wouldn't rule out the need for simulator training in a MAX sim to address MCAS issues, even with software fix. There are so few of those certified world wide that if it was to happen I think that would be an obstacle to getting the world wide fleet airborne, especially at larger airlines.



Icelandair got one of the few 737MAX simulators delivered to customers. Icelandair 737 pilots trained on this simulator.

Regrettably Boeing seems to have made sure that these simulators would not show MCAS and MCAS failure mode and I assume the AoA failure mode encountered by the Lion Air frame..

I would look at it being very optimistic to declare that the 737MAX will fly again in June.

One of the big problems will be that Icelandair will not have enough 757 available to replace the 9 MAX that should have been used this summer. The problem is not the reduction in 757 numbers at Icelandair, the frame that is scraped is replaced by a slightly newer frame bought from AA, but that some 757 have been earmarked for other service than flying for Icelandair. To miss out 9 frames this summer is a big bite for Icelandair.

I have the feeling that Icelandair is looking for additional lift this summer.


The fix won't take more then a day for each aircraft. Then each will need to be test flown to ensure it works properly. Finally, any pilot flying the MAX will go thru a simulator, which will also receive the updates, to ensure they are in compliance with the new features. With FI having one of the simulators, they will be one of the first to get the planes back in the air. At this rate, I will be willing to say by next month.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/27/boeing- ... -know.html
 
ewt340
Posts: 695
Joined: Tue Jul 10, 2012 7:22 pm

Re: Icelandair will not return to CLE, blames MAX8

Wed Mar 27, 2019 3:21 pm

I mean, they are banking their future on MAX. So like it or not, the problems with the grounding does affected them tremendously.

They need small aircraft like MAX8 to serve smaller cities like CLE. Otherwise it's a no show for them.
 
User avatar
spinotter
Posts: 487
Joined: Wed May 27, 2015 1:37 am

Re: Icelandair will not return to CLE, blames MAX8

Wed Mar 27, 2019 3:44 pm

piedmontf284000 wrote:
Iluvtofly wrote:
piedmontf284000 wrote:
While the MAX can be blamed for short term disruption of service to CLE, the plane will be back in service by June and this route wasn't to restart until may 17th. Ending service completely to CLE indicates that FI are just using this as an excuse for an underperforming market. Poor Cleveland. First WW, and now FI. If I were MCI, I would be a fairly worried.


So you have been advised that the aircraft will be back in service by June .... please share the details !


I will bet my house and life savings on it. In fact I'm being conservative with that estimate.


Hey fellow a.netters, this is something that we have to remember. Mr. piedmontf284000, is that June 1st or June 30th or what, so we can see if your prediction is fulfilled? If I had to bet (but I won't!), I would agree with you.
 
User avatar
spinotter
Posts: 487
Joined: Wed May 27, 2015 1:37 am

Re: Icelandair will not return to CLE, blames MAX8

Wed Mar 27, 2019 3:46 pm

piedmontf284000 wrote:
mjoelnir wrote:
N757ST wrote:

I wouldn't rule out the need for simulator training in a MAX sim to address MCAS issues, even with software fix. There are so few of those certified world wide that if it was to happen I think that would be an obstacle to getting the world wide fleet airborne, especially at larger airlines.



Icelandair got one of the few 737MAX simulators delivered to customers. Icelandair 737 pilots trained on this simulator.

Regrettably Boeing seems to have made sure that these simulators would not show MCAS and MCAS failure mode and I assume the AoA failure mode encountered by the Lion Air frame..

I would look at it being very optimistic to declare that the 737MAX will fly again in June.

One of the big problems will be that Icelandair will not have enough 757 available to replace the 9 MAX that should have been used this summer. The problem is not the reduction in 757 numbers at Icelandair, the frame that is scraped is replaced by a slightly newer frame bought from AA, but that some 757 have been earmarked for other service than flying for Icelandair. To miss out 9 frames this summer is a big bite for Icelandair.

I have the feeling that Icelandair is looking for additional lift this summer.


The fix won't take more then a day for each aircraft. Then each will need to be test flown to ensure it works properly. Finally, any pilot flying the MAX will go thru a simulator, which will also receive the updates, to ensure they are in compliance with the new features. With FI having one of the simulators, they will be one of the first to get the planes back in the air. At this rate, I will be willing to say by next month.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/27/boeing- ... -know.html


Would you be willing to bet the house etc. on next month, April 30th?

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