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piedmontf284000
Posts: 407
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 12:00 pm

Re: Icelandair will not return to CLE, blames MAX8

Wed Mar 27, 2019 3:51 pm

spinotter wrote:
piedmontf284000 wrote:
mjoelnir wrote:


Icelandair got one of the few 737MAX simulators delivered to customers. Icelandair 737 pilots trained on this simulator.

Regrettably Boeing seems to have made sure that these simulators would not show MCAS and MCAS failure mode and I assume the AoA failure mode encountered by the Lion Air frame..

I would look at it being very optimistic to declare that the 737MAX will fly again in June.

One of the big problems will be that Icelandair will not have enough 757 available to replace the 9 MAX that should have been used this summer. The problem is not the reduction in 757 numbers at Icelandair, the frame that is scraped is replaced by a slightly newer frame bought from AA, but that some 757 have been earmarked for other service than flying for Icelandair. To miss out 9 frames this summer is a big bite for Icelandair.

I have the feeling that Icelandair is looking for additional lift this summer.


The fix won't take more then a day for each aircraft. Then each will need to be test flown to ensure it works properly. Finally, any pilot flying the MAX will go thru a simulator, which will also receive the updates, to ensure they are in compliance with the new features. With FI having one of the simulators, they will be one of the first to get the planes back in the air. At this rate, I will be willing to say by next month.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/27/boeing- ... -know.html


Would you be willing to bet the house etc. on next month, April 30th?


I'll take that bet. I say the first max flight with updates will be airborne by April 30th.
 
IWMBH
Posts: 325
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Re: Icelandair will not return to CLE, blames MAX8

Wed Mar 27, 2019 3:56 pm

piedmontf284000 wrote:
spinotter wrote:
piedmontf284000 wrote:

The fix won't take more then a day for each aircraft. Then each will need to be test flown to ensure it works properly. Finally, any pilot flying the MAX will go thru a simulator, which will also receive the updates, to ensure they are in compliance with the new features. With FI having one of the simulators, they will be one of the first to get the planes back in the air. At this rate, I will be willing to say by next month.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/27/boeing- ... -know.html


Would you be willing to bet the house etc. on next month, April 30th?


I'll take that bet. I say the first max flight with updates will be airborne by April 30th.


With CA withdrawing the planes till July and SW storing them all at VCV I wouldn't bet my house on it.
They probably have been in close contact with Boeing and why would CA store them longer than necessary?
 
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spinotter
Posts: 563
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Re: Icelandair will not return to CLE, blames MAX8

Wed Mar 27, 2019 4:07 pm

IWMBH wrote:
piedmontf284000 wrote:
spinotter wrote:

Would you be willing to bet the house etc. on next month, April 30th?


I'll take that bet. I say the first max flight with updates will be airborne by April 30th.


With CA withdrawing the planes till July and SW storing them all at VCV I wouldn't bet my house on it.
They probably have been in close contact with Boeing and why would CA store them longer than necessary?


Was it AC and WS individually or the Canadian government that called for the withdrawal until July?
 
IWMBH
Posts: 325
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Re: Icelandair will not return to CLE, blames MAX8

Wed Mar 27, 2019 4:21 pm

spinotter wrote:
IWMBH wrote:
piedmontf284000 wrote:

I'll take that bet. I say the first max flight with updates will be airborne by April 30th.


With CA withdrawing the planes till July and SW storing them all at VCV I wouldn't bet my house on it.
They probably have been in close contact with Boeing and why would CA store them longer than necessary?


Was it AC and WS individually or the Canadian government that called for the withdrawal until July?


This is my source, looks like this was the decision of AC itself: https://www.google.nl/amp/s/globalnews. ... uly-1/amp/

I also read somewhere on this forum that AC planned the MAX to be unoperational till at least July.
 
N766UA
Posts: 8223
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Re: Icelandair will not return to CLE, blames MAX8

Wed Mar 27, 2019 4:50 pm

RJNUT wrote:
Might be a blessing in disguise for CLE as it may improve chances for EI or possibly others, maybe DL to CDG or such.


This logic continues to dumbfound me. CLE finally gets the TATL service it has been longing for, then when it gets cancelled people call it a “blessing in disguise?!” What?
 
jetskipper
Posts: 491
Joined: Tue Jun 12, 2001 1:50 am

Re: Icelandair will not return to CLE, blames MAX8

Wed Mar 27, 2019 5:18 pm

N766UA wrote:
RJNUT wrote:
Might be a blessing in disguise for CLE as it may improve chances for EI or possibly others, maybe DL to CDG or such.


This logic continues to dumbfound me. CLE finally gets the TATL service it has been longing for, then when it gets cancelled people call it a “blessing in disguise?!” What?


Currently in the DL route planning boardroom. “UA/CO couldn’t make Paris or London work with a lot of feed in Cleveland. Two airlines couldn’t make Iceland work with low fares and small narrowbodies. Eureka!”
 
matt
Posts: 740
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Re: Icelandair will not return to CLE, blames MAX8

Wed Mar 27, 2019 5:23 pm

klm617 wrote:
CLEguy wrote:
FI is also canceling the resumption of Halifax, ostensibly due to Max grounding: https://www.thechronicleherald.ca/busin ... ts-295331/


Actually YHZ was FI's first Canadian destination back in the day with a 737-400.


It’s a real shame for Halifax... As you said, it was their first Canadian destination and they have (had?) a loyal following. I’ve used FI out of YHZ several times on my way to Europe and took advantage of the stopovers in Reykjavik. I hope they will be back in the Spring of 2020. Fingers crossed.
Next flights: YQM-YUL-MIA-YUL-YQM / YQM-YUL-YQM / YQM-YUL-LYS-YUL-YQM / YQM-YUL-FRA-MLA-FRA-YUL-YQM
 
MIflyer12
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Re: Icelandair will not return to CLE, blames MAX8

Wed Mar 27, 2019 5:25 pm

I would blame MAX groundings, too, if I were FI. Where's the thread 'Everbody's going to sue Boeing for compensation?' It's all part of negotiation - which may lead to mediation, arbitration, or the courts.
 
Jshank83
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Re: Icelandair will not return to CLE, blames MAX8

Thu Mar 28, 2019 3:53 am

The load factor on the route – that is, the percentage of seats that were full – was 75 percent last summer, according to Boyd. He characterized a 75 percent load factor as “fair, not great.”

“This is an opportunity for them to get out of a market that isn’t doing well for them,” said Boyd, president of the Boyd Group International in Denver.

On the other hand, Kansas City, another new market for Icelandair, had an even lower load factor – 65 percent – during its first summer of operation in 2018. “If I was in Kansas City, I would be waiting for a pink slip on that one,” said Boyd.

https://www.cleveland.com/news/2019/03/ ... -woes.html

I didn't think MCI was quite that low but it will be interesting to see if MCI stays or not. I still think at this point they will but then again who would have thought CLE would have been cut this late either.
 
SCQ83
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Re: Icelandair will not return to CLE, blames MAX8

Thu Mar 28, 2019 9:59 am

Updated list of discontinued routes in KEF in S19 VS S18

- Alicante (Primera Air)
- Alicante (WOW)
- Amsterdam (WOW)
- Baltimore (Icelandair)
- Baltimore (WOW)
- Barcelona (WOW)
- Berlin–Schönefeld (WOW)
- Boston (WOW)
- Bremen (Germania)
- Brussels (WOW)
- Cincinnati (WOW)
- Cleveland (Icelandair)
- Cleveland (WOW)
- Cologne (Eurowings)
- Copenhagen (WOW)
- Dallas (Icelandair)
- Dallas (WOW)
- Detroit (WOW)
- Dresden (Germania)
- Dublin (WOW)
- Düsseldorf (Eurowings)
- Düsseldorf (WOW)
- Edinburgh (WOW)
- Frankfurt (WOW)
- Gran Canaria (Primera Air)
- Gran Canaria (WOW)
- Halifax (Icelandair)
- London Gatwick (WOW)
- London Stansted (WOW)
- Los Angeles (WOW)
- Luxembourg (Luxair)
- Lyon (WOW)
- Málaga (Primera Air)
- Milan MXP (WOW)
- Montréal (WOW)
- New York JFK (WOW)
- Newark (WOW)
- Nuremberg (Germania)
- Palma de Mallorca (Primera Air)
- Paris CDG (WOW)
- Pittsburgh (WOW)
- San Francisco (WOW)
- St Louis (WOW)
- Stockholm ARN (WOW)
- Stuttgart (Eurowings)
- Tel Aviv (WOW)
- Tenerife Sur (Primera Air)
- Tenerife Sur (WOW)
- Toronto (WOW)
- Trieste (Primera Air)
- Warsaw (WOW)

WOW. This is a long list. The bubble has exploded.
 
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enilria
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Re: Icelandair will not return to CLE, blames MAX8

Thu Mar 28, 2019 1:14 pm

c933103 wrote:
klm617 wrote:
mjoelnir wrote:

The 737-8 is their smallest frame. Bought also to serve thinner routes. I find it quite logical, that not being able to use the 737-8, brings most pressure on marginal routes. Both through higher trip cost and the need for more passengers to fill the frame.



Yes but the grounding is temporary and if FI had faith that CLE would work well for them don't you think they would have put a 757 on the route until the 737 was allowed to fly again. In the short term I would take a loss if I thought CLE-KEF was a cash cow if I were FI.

757 is somewhat larger than Max8, burn quite much more fuel, and they also only have a limited number of 757.

Icelandair Max 8 have about 150 seats while their 752 have about 180. Switching the aircraft directly would drop the load factor from a somewhat bearable 70% in term of first year in service to a low 58% load factor.

FI operated CLE with the 757 for periods last year. Clearly that was not a good financial decision.
 
SCQ83
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Re: Icelandair will not return to CLE, blames MAX8

Thu Mar 28, 2019 1:34 pm

I wonder if now Icelandair will open or resume some route.

For instance, BCN will have no connecting carrier in KEF.

Maybe Icelandair would better make a connection agreement with Norwegian, easyJet and/or Wizz Air.
 
fun2fly
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Re: Icelandair will not return to CLE, blames MAX8

Thu Mar 28, 2019 1:51 pm

I noted in the CLE thread, just maybe FI knew WW was going out of business today and that made their decision quickly for them. Might there be other markets affected also?
 
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aemoreira1981
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Re: Icelandair will not return to CLE, blames MAX8

Thu Mar 28, 2019 2:14 pm

zkojq wrote:
What has Icelandair been doing to mitigate 737-8MAX groundings? Wet leased aircraft? Cancelled services? More intensive use of the 757s?


This wasn't so much an issue in the winter schedule, when there was slack in the fleet. However, for the summer schedule, the MAX groundings are relevant, as FI was relying on both the MAX 8 and MAX 9. I am actually surprised that FI hasn't announced its intent to seek compensation for the MAX groundings as Norwegian (umbrella) and SG have announced their intent to do. I could see FI returning to CLE in 2020.

I have to wonder if that 757 that FI sent to Kemble can be returned to service, or if a plane can be rotated in and out of SID (FI has 2 planes based at SID, but one was re-registered in Cabo Verde without repainting).
 
mjoelnir
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Re: Icelandair will not return to CLE, blames MAX8

Thu Mar 28, 2019 2:35 pm

SCQ83 wrote:
Updated list of discontinued routes in KEF in S19 VS S18

- Alicante (Primera Air)
- Alicante (WOW)
- Amsterdam (WOW)
- Baltimore (Icelandair)
- Baltimore (WOW)
- Barcelona (WOW)
- Berlin–Schönefeld (WOW)
- Boston (WOW)
- Bremen (Germania)
- Brussels (WOW)
- Cincinnati (WOW)
- Cleveland (Icelandair)
- Cleveland (WOW)
- Cologne (Eurowings)
- Copenhagen (WOW)
- Dallas (Icelandair)
- Dallas (WOW)
- Detroit (WOW)
- Dresden (Germania)
- Dublin (WOW)
- Düsseldorf (Eurowings)
- Düsseldorf (WOW)
- Edinburgh (WOW)
- Frankfurt (WOW)
- Gran Canaria (Primera Air)
- Gran Canaria (WOW)
- Halifax (Icelandair)
- London Gatwick (WOW)
- London Stansted (WOW)
- Los Angeles (WOW)
- Luxembourg (Luxair)
- Lyon (WOW)
- Málaga (Primera Air)
- Milan MXP (WOW)
- Montréal (WOW)
- New York JFK (WOW)
- Newark (WOW)
- Nuremberg (Germania)
- Palma de Mallorca (Primera Air)
- Paris CDG (WOW)
- Pittsburgh (WOW)
- San Francisco (WOW)
- St Louis (WOW)
- Stockholm ARN (WOW)
- Stuttgart (Eurowings)
- Tel Aviv (WOW)
- Tenerife Sur (Primera Air)
- Tenerife Sur (WOW)
- Toronto (WOW)
- Trieste (Primera Air)
- Warsaw (WOW)

WOW. This is a long list. The bubble has exploded.


That is a very nice list, but a bit absurd. Of course both Primera Air and WOW are gone, so flights with those airlines are gone. I would throw out every destination on this list, where another airline offers a flight. Furthermore you have some destinations more that one time because more that one airline stoped flying, so it looks quite extensive, but is not in reality.
You can also expect Icelandair to increase the number of destinations, the moment they will cure their lift availability problem. Perhaps they will someday be aloud to fly there MAX again, otherwise we will see additional other frames.
For this summer 9 of 38 frames dropped out because of the grounding. FI expected to use 6 737-8 and 3 737-9 this summer.
I expect Icelandair to lease some frames this summer and expand the route system again.
 
mjoelnir
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Re: Icelandair will not return to CLE, blames MAX8

Thu Mar 28, 2019 2:43 pm

aemoreira1981 wrote:
zkojq wrote:
What has Icelandair been doing to mitigate 737-8MAX groundings? Wet leased aircraft? Cancelled services? More intensive use of the 757s?


This wasn't so much an issue in the winter schedule, when there was slack in the fleet. However, for the summer schedule, the MAX groundings are relevant, as FI was relying on both the MAX 8 and MAX 9. I am actually surprised that FI hasn't announced its intent to seek compensation for the MAX groundings as Norwegian (umbrella) and SG have announced their intent to do. I could see FI returning to CLE in 2020.

I have to wonder if that 757 that FI sent to Kemble can be returned to service, or if a plane can be rotated in and out of SID (FI has 2 planes based at SID, but one was re-registered in Cabo Verde without repainting).


The 757-200 send to Kemble, a rather old frame bought from AA, had already been replaced by a slightly newer frame bought again from AA. But some of the 757-200 had been intended for other use this summer, like for example on the Capo Verde islands.

I do not expect Icelandair to talk about compensation in the news, as they are a very Boeing friendly airline, but you can expect them talking with Boeing anyway. 9 of 38 frames they expected to use this sommer is about 24% of their frames, about 15 to 20% of their capacity. The 737MAX were intended for high usage this summer.
 
klm617
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Re: Icelandair will not return to CLE, blames MAX8

Thu Mar 28, 2019 3:44 pm

fun2fly wrote:
I noted in the CLE thread, just maybe FI knew WW was going out of business today and that made their decision quickly for them. Might there be other markets affected also?


In hind sight I believe this to be true FI knew they were folding and chose to cut CLE and YHZ.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
mjoelnir
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Joined: Sun Feb 03, 2013 11:06 pm

Re: Icelandair will not return to CLE, blames MAX8

Thu Mar 28, 2019 3:49 pm

klm617 wrote:
fun2fly wrote:
I noted in the CLE thread, just maybe FI knew WW was going out of business today and that made their decision quickly for them. Might there be other markets affected also?


In hind sight I believe this to be true FI knew they were folding and chose to cut CLE and YHZ.


I would rather guess that cutting CLE and YHZ can be squarely put to the unavailability of the 737MAX.
 
klm617
Posts: 4376
Joined: Sat Jul 04, 2015 8:57 pm

Re: Icelandair will not return to CLE, blames MAX8

Thu Mar 28, 2019 3:52 pm

Jshank83 wrote:
The load factor on the route – that is, the percentage of seats that were full – was 75 percent last summer, according to Boyd. He characterized a 75 percent load factor as “fair, not great.”

“This is an opportunity for them to get out of a market that isn’t doing well for them,” said Boyd, president of the Boyd Group International in Denver.

On the other hand, Kansas City, another new market for Icelandair, had an even lower load factor – 65 percent – during its first summer of operation in 2018. “If I was in Kansas City, I would be waiting for a pink slip on that one,” said Boyd.

https://www.cleveland.com/news/2019/03/ ... -woes.html

I didn't think MCI was quite that low but it will be interesting to see if MCI stays or not. I still think at this point they will but then again who would have thought CLE would have been cut this late either.


The thing to remember though is for places like CLE and DTW they can use B6 to get people to their flights in BOS something that can't be done out of MCI so that's why it's more likely that MCI can hold on where DTW and CLE miss out. We will now probably see BOS-KEF get upped capacity rather than CLE or DTW being added
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
User avatar
hvusslax
Posts: 384
Joined: Sat Aug 15, 2015 7:35 pm

Re: Icelandair will not return to CLE, blames MAX8

Thu Mar 28, 2019 3:53 pm

SCQ83 wrote:
Updated list of discontinued routes in KEF in S19 VS S18

- Alicante (Primera Air)
- Alicante (WOW)
- Amsterdam (WOW)
- Baltimore (Icelandair)
- Baltimore (WOW)
- Barcelona (WOW)
- Berlin–Schönefeld (WOW)
- Boston (WOW)
- Bremen (Germania)
- Brussels (WOW)
- Cincinnati (WOW)
- Cleveland (Icelandair)
- Cleveland (WOW)
- Cologne (Eurowings)
- Copenhagen (WOW)
- Dallas (Icelandair)
- Dallas (WOW)
- Detroit (WOW)
- Dresden (Germania)
- Dublin (WOW)
- Düsseldorf (Eurowings)
- Düsseldorf (WOW)
- Edinburgh (WOW)
- Frankfurt (WOW)
- Gran Canaria (Primera Air)
- Gran Canaria (WOW)
- Halifax (Icelandair)
- London Gatwick (WOW)
- London Stansted (WOW)
- Los Angeles (WOW)
- Luxembourg (Luxair)
- Lyon (WOW)
- Málaga (Primera Air)
- Milan MXP (WOW)
- Montréal (WOW)
- New York JFK (WOW)
- Newark (WOW)
- Nuremberg (Germania)
- Palma de Mallorca (Primera Air)
- Paris CDG (WOW)
- Pittsburgh (WOW)
- San Francisco (WOW)
- St Louis (WOW)
- Stockholm ARN (WOW)
- Stuttgart (Eurowings)
- Tel Aviv (WOW)
- Tenerife Sur (Primera Air)
- Tenerife Sur (WOW)
- Toronto (WOW)
- Trieste (Primera Air)
- Warsaw (WOW)

WOW. This is a long list. The bubble has exploded.


What's the source for Eurowings dropping Cologne, Düsseldorf and Stuttgart? All of these are bookable from May/June.
 
User avatar
spinotter
Posts: 563
Joined: Wed May 27, 2015 1:37 am

Re: Icelandair will not return to CLE, blames MAX8

Thu Mar 28, 2019 4:24 pm

jetskipper wrote:
N766UA wrote:
RJNUT wrote:
Might be a blessing in disguise for CLE as it may improve chances for EI or possibly others, maybe DL to CDG or such.


This logic continues to dumbfound me. CLE finally gets the TATL service it has been longing for, then when it gets cancelled people call it a “blessing in disguise?!” What?


Currently in the DL route planning boardroom. “UA/CO couldn’t make Paris or London work with a lot of feed in Cleveland. Two airlines couldn’t make Iceland work with low fares and small narrowbodies. Eureka!”


Well, DL is the only possibility among the US3 for sure. If DL can make IND-CDG a success (has that started yet?), CLE does not sound out of the question to me.
 
c933103
Posts: 3805
Joined: Wed May 18, 2016 7:23 pm

Re: Icelandair will not return to CLE, blames MAX8

Thu Mar 28, 2019 4:48 pm

enilria wrote:
c933103 wrote:
klm617 wrote:


Yes but the grounding is temporary and if FI had faith that CLE would work well for them don't you think they would have put a 757 on the route until the 737 was allowed to fly again. In the short term I would take a loss if I thought CLE-KEF was a cash cow if I were FI.

757 is somewhat larger than Max8, burn quite much more fuel, and they also only have a limited number of 757.

Icelandair Max 8 have about 150 seats while their 752 have about 180. Switching the aircraft directly would drop the load factor from a somewhat bearable 70% in term of first year in service to a low 58% load factor.

FI operated CLE with the 757 for periods last year. Clearly that was not a good financial decision.

Well if they got 70% load factor on a 180 seats 757, then they should be able to get 84% average load factor on a 737 by selling same amount of tickets which isn't a bad number
When no other countries around the world is going to militarily stop China and its subordinate fom abusing its citizens within its national boundary, it is unreasonable to expect those abuse can be countered with purely peaceful means.
 
c933103
Posts: 3805
Joined: Wed May 18, 2016 7:23 pm

Re: Icelandair will not return to CLE, blames MAX8

Thu Mar 28, 2019 4:49 pm

SCQ83 wrote:
Updated list of discontinued routes in KEF in S19 VS S18

- Alicante (Primera Air)
- Alicante (WOW)
- Amsterdam (WOW)
- Baltimore (Icelandair)
- Baltimore (WOW)
- Barcelona (WOW)
- Berlin–Schönefeld (WOW)
- Boston (WOW)
- Bremen (Germania)
- Brussels (WOW)
- Cincinnati (WOW)
- Cleveland (Icelandair)
- Cleveland (WOW)
- Cologne (Eurowings)
- Copenhagen (WOW)
- Dallas (Icelandair)
- Dallas (WOW)
- Detroit (WOW)
- Dresden (Germania)
- Dublin (WOW)
- Düsseldorf (Eurowings)
- Düsseldorf (WOW)
- Edinburgh (WOW)
- Frankfurt (WOW)
- Gran Canaria (Primera Air)
- Gran Canaria (WOW)
- Halifax (Icelandair)
- London Gatwick (WOW)
- London Stansted (WOW)
- Los Angeles (WOW)
- Luxembourg (Luxair)
- Lyon (WOW)
- Málaga (Primera Air)
- Milan MXP (WOW)
- Montréal (WOW)
- New York JFK (WOW)
- Newark (WOW)
- Nuremberg (Germania)
- Palma de Mallorca (Primera Air)
- Paris CDG (WOW)
- Pittsburgh (WOW)
- San Francisco (WOW)
- St Louis (WOW)
- Stockholm ARN (WOW)
- Stuttgart (Eurowings)
- Tel Aviv (WOW)
- Tenerife Sur (Primera Air)
- Tenerife Sur (WOW)
- Toronto (WOW)
- Trieste (Primera Air)
- Warsaw (WOW)

WOW. This is a long list. The bubble has exploded.

The list is pretty meaningless when many of these routes are being dropped simply because of airlines bankruptcy
When no other countries around the world is going to militarily stop China and its subordinate fom abusing its citizens within its national boundary, it is unreasonable to expect those abuse can be countered with purely peaceful means.
 
akb88
Posts: 139
Joined: Sat Feb 09, 2019 2:44 am

Re: Icelandair will not return to CLE, blames MAX8

Thu Mar 28, 2019 4:50 pm

Didn't Canada close their airspace for the MAX until July? Meaning Icelandair wouldn't be able to use them for their American flights anyway until then.
 
mjoelnir
Posts: 8416
Joined: Sun Feb 03, 2013 11:06 pm

Re: Icelandair will not return to CLE, blames MAX8

Thu Mar 28, 2019 5:32 pm

akb88 wrote:
Didn't Canada close their airspace for the MAX until July? Meaning Icelandair wouldn't be able to use them for their American flights anyway until then.


EASA would need to lift the grounding.
 
SCQ83
Posts: 5331
Joined: Wed Oct 03, 2012 8:32 pm

Re: Icelandair will not return to CLE, blames MAX8

Thu Mar 28, 2019 6:07 pm

hvusslax wrote:
What's the source for Eurowings dropping Cologne, Düsseldorf and Stuttgart? All of these are bookable from May/June.


You are right about CGN; it shows non-stop flights. But any bookable flight I can find in Eurowings from DUS and STR in summer is via HAM.

c933103 wrote:
The list is pretty meaningless when many of these routes are being dropped simply because of airlines bankruptcy


The list is not meaningless. It shows how overheated the market was.

Which other airlines have taken over those routes?

I remember for instance when Spanair or MALEV went bankrupt, literally the same day Vueling and Ryanair (for Spanair) or Ryanair or Wizzair (for MALEV) were announcing new routes that... surprise mirrored many Spanair/MALEV lost destinations. What about KEF? Nothing.
 
rbavfan
Posts: 3184
Joined: Fri Apr 17, 2015 5:53 am

Re: Icelandair will not return to CLE, blames MAX8

Thu Mar 28, 2019 6:29 pm

piedmontf284000 wrote:
Iluvtofly wrote:
piedmontf284000 wrote:
While the MAX can be blamed for short term disruption of service to CLE, the plane will be back in service by June and this route wasn't to restart until may 17th. Ending service completely to CLE indicates that FI are just using this as an excuse for an underperforming market. Poor Cleveland. First WW, and now FI. If I were MCI, I would be a fairly worried.


So you have been advised that the aircraft will be back in service by June .... please share the details !


I will bet my house and life savings on it. In fact I'm being conservative with that estimate.


That did not answer his question, you just reflected it noting your betting on it. That makes your original comment inaccurate hearsay and 100% untrue.
 
rbavfan
Posts: 3184
Joined: Fri Apr 17, 2015 5:53 am

Re: Icelandair will not return to CLE, blames MAX8

Thu Mar 28, 2019 7:32 pm

c933103 wrote:
klm617 wrote:
mjoelnir wrote:

The 737-8 is their smallest frame. Bought also to serve thinner routes. I find it quite logical, that not being able to use the 737-8, brings most pressure on marginal routes. Both through higher trip cost and the need for more passengers to fill the frame.



Yes but the grounding is temporary and if FI had faith that CLE would work well for them don't you think they would have put a 757 on the route until the 737 was allowed to fly again. In the short term I would take a loss if I thought CLE-KEF was a cash cow if I were FI.

757 is somewhat larger than Max8, burn quite much more fuel, and they also only have a limited number of 757.

Icelandair Max 8 have about 150 seats while their 752 have about 180. Switching the aircraft directly would drop the load factor from a somewhat bearable 70% in term of first year in service to a low 58% load factor.


Not to mention the 25-30% higher fuel cost.
 
rbavfan
Posts: 3184
Joined: Fri Apr 17, 2015 5:53 am

Re: Icelandair will not return to CLE, blames MAX8

Thu Mar 28, 2019 8:13 pm

greenair727 wrote:
So, using the stats above, for CLE-KEF, FI had a 70% LF and WW had 76% and the frequency last year was 9x/week. So clearly FI at 7x or even 5x (as was planned) could easily reach a healthy 90%+ even with higher fares as the demand was clearly there. I'm not sure what is really up with FI. I'm in Cleveland and heard an ad THIS morning for FI on the radio.


But if they are both getting that high a load & it's being dropped. Then my guess would be the fares were to low & yeilds sucked. Otherwise why would a 757 replacing 2 smaller planes even with higher fuel cost be dropped as a route.Load factors mean nothing if prices are too low.
 
rbavfan
Posts: 3184
Joined: Fri Apr 17, 2015 5:53 am

Re: Icelandair will not return to CLE, blames MAX8

Thu Mar 28, 2019 8:46 pm

Lapplander800 wrote:
klm617 wrote:
AaronPGH wrote:
Wow, none of those loads are particularly great.


No they aren't even with the summer included and low fares. Wonder how BOS would be without the B6 feed.


What are good loads then?

I looked at some others for the same period;
Icelandair US destinations 79% as per above
Icelandair ALL destinations 81.2% (*down 2.2% from '17)
Alaska 83.8%
Delta 85.6%
AA 83.9%
United 83.9%
Lufthansa Group 82.0%
BA 82.8%
Southwest 83.4%

* Icelandair had a major issue last summer with network imbalance where they sold out of their KEF-EU quicker than the KEF-US legs and therefore couldn't sell as many US-EU connections as they could have.
EU load factor last summer was in the low %90's.

EDIT: Added Icelandair LF for all destinations.



As noted before. I can have a plane with 98% LF every day. However if I have that by undercutting prices, then that load factor means 100% nothing. Load factor does not ever mean the flight makes lots of mony. Many airlins drop prices to fill seats because a seat going out making $5 is better than that seat making $0. That also increases load factor numbers. Like wise if I sell 110 seats at $300 dollars, & 40 at $5 with a 100% load factor Great. If I sell the same flight at 120 seats at $15 & 30 at $300 I'm out of business.
 
Nickd92
Posts: 66
Joined: Mon Aug 24, 2015 7:01 pm

Re: Icelandair will not return to CLE, blames MAX8

Thu Mar 28, 2019 9:14 pm

SCQ83 wrote:
Updated list of discontinued routes in KEF in S19 VS S18

- Cologne (Eurowings)
- Düsseldorf (Eurowings)
- Luxembourg (Luxair)
- Stuttgart (Eurowings)

WOW. This is a long list. The bubble has exploded.


Just corrected that for you. The ones in bold are questioned because as pointed out above they are still on sale in May/June. The bubble has not exploded. Not even close to exploded. LUXAir can clearly make money elsewhere instead of sending an aircraft to KEF. Good on them.
 
mjoelnir
Posts: 8416
Joined: Sun Feb 03, 2013 11:06 pm

Re: Icelandair will not return to CLE, blames MAX8

Thu Mar 28, 2019 10:04 pm

piedmontf284000 wrote:
mjoelnir wrote:
N757ST wrote:

I wouldn't rule out the need for simulator training in a MAX sim to address MCAS issues, even with software fix. There are so few of those certified world wide that if it was to happen I think that would be an obstacle to getting the world wide fleet airborne, especially at larger airlines.



Icelandair got one of the few 737MAX simulators delivered to customers. Icelandair 737 pilots trained on this simulator.

Regrettably Boeing seems to have made sure that these simulators would not show MCAS and MCAS failure mode and I assume the AoA failure mode encountered by the Lion Air frame..

I would look at it being very optimistic to declare that the 737MAX will fly again in June.

One of the big problems will be that Icelandair will not have enough 757 available to replace the 9 MAX that should have been used this summer. The problem is not the reduction in 757 numbers at Icelandair, the frame that is scraped is replaced by a slightly newer frame bought from AA, but that some 757 have been earmarked for other service than flying for Icelandair. To miss out 9 frames this summer is a big bite for Icelandair.

I have the feeling that Icelandair is looking for additional lift this summer.


The fix won't take more then a day for each aircraft. Then each will need to be test flown to ensure it works properly. Finally, any pilot flying the MAX will go thru a simulator, which will also receive the updates, to ensure they are in compliance with the new features. With FI having one of the simulators, they will be one of the first to get the planes back in the air. At this rate, I will be willing to say by next month.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/27/boeing- ... -know.html


But that fix will need to be certified and regarding Icelandair that means EASA.
 
mjoelnir
Posts: 8416
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Re: Icelandair will not return to CLE, blames MAX8

Thu Mar 28, 2019 10:09 pm

SCQ83 wrote:
hvusslax wrote:
What's the source for Eurowings dropping Cologne, Düsseldorf and Stuttgart? All of these are bookable from May/June.


You are right about CGN; it shows non-stop flights. But any bookable flight I can find in Eurowings from DUS and STR in summer is via HAM.

c933103 wrote:
The list is pretty meaningless when many of these routes are being dropped simply because of airlines bankruptcy


The list is not meaningless. It shows how overheated the market was.

Which other airlines have taken over those routes?

I remember for instance when Spanair or MALEV went bankrupt, literally the same day Vueling and Ryanair (for Spanair) or Ryanair or Wizzair (for MALEV) were announcing new routes that... surprise mirrored many Spanair/MALEV lost destinations. What about KEF? Nothing.


Your list is meaningless. You do not need a new airline flying the route if one airline is left. The airline left flying that route has three possibilities to cover increased traffic. Increase frequency, increase aircraft size and/or run higher load factors. Icelandair has already increased its overall passenger numbers by 9% the two first month this year.
 
cledaybuck
Posts: 1518
Joined: Thu Aug 18, 2016 6:07 pm

Re: Icelandair will not return to CLE, blames MAX8

Thu Mar 28, 2019 10:48 pm

klm617 wrote:
Jshank83 wrote:
The load factor on the route – that is, the percentage of seats that were full – was 75 percent last summer, according to Boyd. He characterized a 75 percent load factor as “fair, not great.”

“This is an opportunity for them to get out of a market that isn’t doing well for them,” said Boyd, president of the Boyd Group International in Denver.

On the other hand, Kansas City, another new market for Icelandair, had an even lower load factor – 65 percent – during its first summer of operation in 2018. “If I was in Kansas City, I would be waiting for a pink slip on that one,” said Boyd.

https://www.cleveland.com/news/2019/03/ ... -woes.html

I didn't think MCI was quite that low but it will be interesting to see if MCI stays or not. I still think at this point they will but then again who would have thought CLE would have been cut this late either.


The thing to remember though is for places like CLE and DTW they can use B6 to get people to their flights in BOS something that can't be done out of MCI so that's why it's more likely that MCI can hold on where DTW and CLE miss out. We will now probably see BOS-KEF get upped capacity rather than CLE or DTW being added

That is fairly meaningless. Most people from CLE aren’t flying to KEF, they were using it to connect to Europe. No one is going to fly CLE-BOS-KEF-Europe (on two different airlines nonetheless) when they can easily connect in ORD, DTW, EWR, IAD, PHL, etc.
As we celebrate mediocrity, all the boys upstairs want to see, how much you'll pay for what you used to get for free.
 
User avatar
ODwyerPW
Posts: 1513
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Re: Icelandair will not return to CLE, blames MAX8

Thu Mar 28, 2019 11:30 pm

AaronPGH wrote:
Wow, none of those loads are particularly great.


They all would have been considered very good even just a decade or two ago.....
learning never stops.
 
prebennorholm
Posts: 6955
Joined: Tue Mar 21, 2000 6:25 am

Re: Icelandair will not return to CLE, blames MAX8

Fri Mar 29, 2019 12:59 am

akb88 wrote:
Didn't Canada close their airspace for the MAX until July?

Yes, that's right, and EASA and CAAC in principle did it until the end of the world. These are all dates which are going to be changed when appropriate.
Always keep your number of landings equal to your number of take-offs
 
SCQ83
Posts: 5331
Joined: Wed Oct 03, 2012 8:32 pm

Re: Icelandair will not return to CLE, blames MAX8

Fri Mar 29, 2019 6:54 am

Nickd92 wrote:
SCQ83 wrote:
Updated list of discontinued routes in KEF in S19 VS S18

- Cologne (Eurowings)
- Düsseldorf (Eurowings)
- Luxembourg (Luxair)
- Stuttgart (Eurowings)

WOW. This is a long list. The bubble has exploded.


Just corrected that for you. The ones in bold are questioned because as pointed out above they are still on sale in May/June. The bubble has not exploded. Not even close to exploded. LUXAir can clearly make money elsewhere instead of sending an aircraft to KEF. Good on them.


I can't see tickets for sale in DUS-KEF and STR-KEF anytime. Could you point the flight number and the dates of those non-stop flights (in EW's website and not some random search engine that keeps outdated stock and routes that might have been cancelled)? STR and DUS are chopped, and Eurowings is keeping only CGN and HAM.
 
mxaxai
Posts: 1090
Joined: Sat Jun 18, 2016 7:29 am

Re: Icelandair will not return to CLE, blames MAX8

Fri Mar 29, 2019 11:10 am

SCQ83 wrote:
It looks like the Icelandic bubble has burst. This is what KEF is losing compared to S18:
- Düsseldorf (Eurowings)
- Düsseldorf (WOW)

DUS is still being served by Icelandair AFAIK. 2x weekly for the whole summer season.

I'd also like to note that STR-KEF has been served seasonally for at least 10 years by either Germanwings or Wow Air. Hardly overheated.
 
jetskipper
Posts: 491
Joined: Tue Jun 12, 2001 1:50 am

Re: Icelandair will not return to CLE, blames MAX8

Fri Mar 29, 2019 11:22 am

Well, DL is the only possibility among the US3 for sure. If DL can make IND-CDG a success (has that started yet?), CLE does not sound out of the question to me.[/quote]

The state of Indana is giving Delta 5.5 million dollars over two years in incentives and revenue guarantee. The final tranche ends in 2019, if the flight will remain after that is to be seen.

After spending incentive money on failed “European” service, not sure that the city of Cleveland will be willing to spend more money.
 
fun2fly
Posts: 1483
Joined: Tue Dec 26, 2006 8:44 am

Re: Icelandair will not return to CLE, blames MAX8

Fri Mar 29, 2019 11:58 am

jetskipper wrote:
Well, DL is the only possibility among the US3 for sure. If DL can make IND-CDG a success (has that started yet?), CLE does not sound out of the question to me.


The state of Indana is giving Delta 5.5 million dollars over two years in incentives and revenue guarantee. The final tranche ends in 2019, if the flight will remain after that is to be seen.

After spending incentive money on failed “European” service, not sure that the city of Cleveland will be willing to spend more money.[/quote]

It was marketing $ that CLE offered I believe for a few years which, I hope b/c it's CLE, would not be paid if they are not flying.
 
mjoelnir
Posts: 8416
Joined: Sun Feb 03, 2013 11:06 pm

Re: Icelandair will not return to CLE, blames MAX8

Fri Mar 29, 2019 12:02 pm

piedmontf284000 wrote:
spinotter wrote:
piedmontf284000 wrote:

The fix won't take more then a day for each aircraft. Then each will need to be test flown to ensure it works properly. Finally, any pilot flying the MAX will go thru a simulator, which will also receive the updates, to ensure they are in compliance with the new features. With FI having one of the simulators, they will be one of the first to get the planes back in the air. At this rate, I will be willing to say by next month.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/27/boeing- ... -know.html


Would you be willing to bet the house etc. on next month, April 30th?


I'll take that bet. I say the first max flight with updates will be airborne by April 30th.


Do you mean by Boeing for test flights?
 
IceAir778
Posts: 103
Joined: Thu Feb 14, 2013 4:55 pm

Re: Icelandair will not return to CLE, blames MAX8

Fri Mar 29, 2019 1:02 pm

SCQ83 wrote:
klm617 wrote:
Plus Baltimore (Icelandair)


Thanks. The list is too long :D

The list is very telling thou.

Look at the German market. Germania goes bust. Icelandair and WOW cancel some destinations there. So what does Eurowings do? In a "normal" market EW would profit from those bankruptcies / cancellations to increase their flights to KEF or at least to keep the same flights and increase fares. But what do they do? They also chop most of their destinations. Mega bubble.


No! FI has not cancel any of their destinations in Germany. The flies to FRA, MUC, HAM, TXL. In fact, they have increased their frequency to all of these destinations!

Regarding Primeria; they flew to Summer holiday destinations. Their only focus was Icelandic people for holiday.
 
IceAir778
Posts: 103
Joined: Thu Feb 14, 2013 4:55 pm

Re: Icelandair will not return to CLE, blames MAX8

Fri Mar 29, 2019 1:05 pm

klm617 wrote:
SCQ83 wrote:
It looks like the Icelandic bubble has burst. This is what KEF is losing compared to S18:

- Alicante (Primera Air)
- Bremen (Germania)
- Cincinnati (WOW)
- Cleveland (Icelandair)
- Cleveland (WOW)
- Cologne (Eurowings)
- Dallas (Icelandair)
- Dallas (WOW)
- Dresden (Germania)
- Düsseldorf (Eurowings)
- Düsseldorf (WOW)
- Edinburgh (WOW)
- Gran Canaria (Primera Air)
- Halifax (Icelandair)
- London Gatwick (WOW)
- Los Angeles (WOW)
- Luxembourg (Luxair)
- Málaga (Primera Air)
- New York JFK (WOW)
- Nuremberg (Germania)
- Palma de Mallorca (Primera Air)
- Pittsburgh (WOW)
- San Francisco (WOW)
- St Louis (WOW)
- Stuttgart (Eurowings)
- Tenerife Sur (Primera Air)
- Trieste (Primera Air)

Also interesting that DEL (WOW), DUS (Icelandair) and FCO (Norwegian) started in W18 and are already being chopped.

New routes I can see are ARN in SAS and KRK in W6 from September.


Plus Baltimore (Icelandair)


I think BWI was just to push WW out of the market. BWI was one of best destination in US/CA.
 
mxaxai
Posts: 1090
Joined: Sat Jun 18, 2016 7:29 am

Re: Icelandair will not return to CLE, blames MAX8

Fri Mar 29, 2019 1:51 pm

IceAir778 wrote:
klm617 wrote:
Plus Baltimore (Icelandair)


I think BWI was just to push WW out of the market. BWI was one of best destination in US/CA.

This is an airline behavior that really pisses me off, as a customer. Launch a route just to destroy another airline's business model and drop the route once the other airline is gone, resulting in no service at all. It occurs just too often. I hope BWI gains other EU destinations sooner or later to compensate.
 
izbtmnhd
Posts: 857
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2010 7:06 pm

Re: Icelandair will not return to CLE, blames MAX8

Fri Mar 29, 2019 2:01 pm

The BWI-KEF route was doing so great nobody is flying it anymore. Hmmm...

IAD is the Euro gateway for the DC-Baltimore region, even for ULCC/LCCs. The state of Maryland will have a real uphill battle to entice additional TATL carriers to BWI without some sort of incentive package.
 
mxaxai
Posts: 1090
Joined: Sat Jun 18, 2016 7:29 am

Re: Icelandair will not return to CLE, blames MAX8

Fri Mar 29, 2019 2:11 pm

izbtmnhd wrote:
The BWI-KEF route was so great nobody is flying it anymore. Hmmm...

I doubt that WW went bust because of BWI ... and FI may not have the right product to make the market work. One less airline, one less choice for consumers.
 
izbtmnhd
Posts: 857
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2010 7:06 pm

Re: Icelandair will not return to CLE, blames MAX8

Fri Mar 29, 2019 2:18 pm

mxaxai wrote:
izbtmnhd wrote:
The BWI-KEF route was so great nobody is flying it anymore. Hmmm...

I doubt that WW went bust because of BWI ... and FI may not have the right product to make the market work. One less airline, one less choice for consumers.


So CLE doesn't work, it's profits. Yet BWI doesn't work, it's the airplane.

All I know is the route isn't being flown. If it made money, FI would have found a way to make it work, just like CLE.

Also, there are plenty of TATL options out of IAD for Baltimore peeps (and PHL for Harford County residents).
 
IceAir778
Posts: 103
Joined: Thu Feb 14, 2013 4:55 pm

Re: Icelandair will not return to CLE, blames MAX8

Fri Mar 29, 2019 2:44 pm

mxaxai wrote:
IceAir778 wrote:
klm617 wrote:
Plus Baltimore (Icelandair)


I think BWI was just to push WW out of the market. BWI was one of best destination in US/CA.

This is an airline behavior that really pisses me off, as a customer. Launch a route just to destroy another airline's business model and drop the route once the other airline is gone, resulting in no service at all. It occurs just too often. I hope BWI gains other EU destinations sooner or later to compensate.


I totally agree with you!
After I read your comment I realised that my reply was like I am in the FI's inner circle. Which is not true.
This is only my speculation. But it is looks like it - which is bad!
But on the other hand they were may be expands their route map and possibilities for their passengers. They fly to two airports in NYC (JFK+EWR) and in LON (LHR+LGW) and to PAR (CDG+ORY, which is now canceled).

May be, they were, only doing this to meet their demand from their pax.
 
IceAir778
Posts: 103
Joined: Thu Feb 14, 2013 4:55 pm

Re: Icelandair will not return to CLE, blames MAX8

Fri Mar 29, 2019 2:45 pm

mxaxai wrote:
izbtmnhd wrote:
The BWI-KEF route was so great nobody is flying it anymore. Hmmm...

I doubt that WW went bust because of BWI ... and FI may not have the right product to make the market work. One less airline, one less choice for consumers.


I could see FI open up this destination in the future with their B7M8s.
 
IceAir778
Posts: 103
Joined: Thu Feb 14, 2013 4:55 pm

Re: Icelandair will not return to CLE, blames MAX8

Fri Mar 29, 2019 2:53 pm

I think the reason why FI cancelled their flights to YHZ and CLE, is that these cities are low yield destinations with low load factor (as it is now - and might see some trend that it will not change from now (?)) - around 75% or less. Their B757s will be in 100% utilisation this Summer as before flying to destination such as (1) high yield and high demand is and (2) range (where B73M can not do). By doing this now, they will have some slack in their route map, if their B737MAXes will not fly until JUN/JUL/AUG (worst case scenario).
So they they are minimizing their cost if they need to rent some airplanes this Summer.

On the other hand both of these destination are perfectly fitted to be operated by B73Ms and I think, and I hope (!), that they will join both of these markets next Summer [fingers crossed!].

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