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Why Has Boeing Been So Reluctant To Build A New Narrowbody?

Thu Mar 28, 2019 8:44 pm

The last cleansheet narrowbody design Boeing built was the 757, over 35 years ago. In that same timespace they've done two all new widebodies in the 777 and 787. Meanwhile, their only current narrowbody offering in the 737 dates back to the late 1960s. Granted the 737NG was a very significant overhaul of the 737 platform. But even after finishing the 737NG in 1997, Boeing wouldn't commit to a cleansheet plane for 20 years and only did the incremental MAX at market gunpoint when AIrbus caught them flatfooted with the A320neo.

So why has Boeing been so reluctant to do anything radical in the narrowbody space for 20-35 years? The fact that the 787 program program tied down so many resources for so long? The 748i distraction? A desire to try and jump two generations ahead in a single leap (maybe unrealistically) and the technology hasn't been there? Analysis paralysis? Risk aversion? Complacency?
 
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Finn350
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Re: Why Has Boeing Been So Reluctant To Build A New Narrowbody?

Thu Mar 28, 2019 8:52 pm

A cleansheet narrowbody program would cost at least $10 billion, and technological advances would bring only few percent savings in better efficiency. In other words, there has not been a business case for a new cleansheet narrowbody. When engine technology has advanced enough, the time will be right, and the current 737 crisis probably also helps to launch the new cleansheet design.
 
Kilopond
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Re: Why Has Boeing Been So Reluctant To Build A New Narrowbody?

Thu Mar 28, 2019 8:57 pm

The beancounters and the management had ordered the engineers to milk the old cow as long as possible. Most likely under the pressure of certain shareholders. Applying just minimal investments for maximal SHORT-TERM profits is a widely spread approach.
 
lhrnue
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Re: Why Has Boeing Been So Reluctant To Build A New Narrowbody?

Thu Mar 28, 2019 9:04 pm

Parts communality for existing customers
 
Chemist
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Re: Why Has Boeing Been So Reluctant To Build A New Narrowbody?

Thu Mar 28, 2019 9:06 pm

Boeing actually wanted to do a new small aircraft, but their customers wanted a reengined 737 as they didn't want to wait more years for an NSA. So the MAX was born.
Notwithstanding the MAX issues, the 737 has a newer wing than the A320, and modern engines. Prior to the MAX issues, its safety record is similar. The 737 NG is more efficient than the A320 on shorter legs as it's lighter, the A320 a tiny bit better on longer legs. This is the NG versus the CEO models.
So why is a new AC so critical? OK the 737 has an old design fuselage, but many of the manufacturing processes have been updated. What is old is the fuse, the windows, the cockpit other than instruments/displays, the doors, and the control system (mostly). But what actual harm do those things do by being an older design?
 
A380MSN004
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Re: Why Has Boeing Been So Reluctant To Build A New Narrowbody?

Thu Mar 28, 2019 9:11 pm

Here is a good article about that by Ostrover : https://theaircurrent.com/aviation-safe ... he-737-max
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Why Has Boeing Been So Reluctant To Build A New Narrowbody?

Thu Mar 28, 2019 9:13 pm

Why hasn't Airbus done a clean sheet narrowbody? They bought the A220. Nothing else since 1988...

Business case.

Finn350 wrote:
A cleansheet narrowbody program would cost at least $10 billion, and technological advances would bring only few percent savings in better efficiency. In other words, there has not been a business case for a new cleansheet narrowbody. When engine technology has advanced enough, the time will be right, and the current 737 crisis probably also helps to launch the new cleansheet design.

Actually, a clean sheet might save 8%.

3% from more modern subsystems.
The rest from a lighter wing with better aspect ratio (I assume folding wingtips to fit in a 738 gate).

But yeah... At least $10 billion USD. Plus, 3 to 4 more development years.

The MoM has been in work for years (at least 3) and EIS of 2025.

To others:
How much more cost than the MAX? About $5 to $6 billion. How much more revenue? Maybe $5 million per aircraft or $2.5 billion. Or lose $2.5 to $3.5 billion vs. the max. Less loss as time goes on.

Both the A320 and 737 need:
1. CFRP wing
2. Folding wingtips. (Allows more underside laminar flow, aka wingtwist).
3. Electric subsystems, in particular cabin pressurization and anti ice (saves weight and fuel).
4. More aerodynamically optimized structure. (Computers allow more shapes).
5. A structure optimized for barrel assembly (cuts assembly costs).
6. Better (more aerodynamic) wing body join (requires a new wingbox).
7. More efficient wingbox for fuel storage (more fuel and less unusable fuel). A better fuel system in general.
8. Redesign for newer structures (less weight and longer life).

There will be a NSA. I just see more need for a NMA.

The engine ramp hasn't gone well for either MAX or NEO (lots of prior generation sold cheap). Imagine the CFRP and 3D printing ramp needed for an all new design. This round was engines, avionics (including predictive maintenance), and the most troublesome subsystems.

Look at the pace of the 787 or A350 ramp. Boeing would have been bankrupt if a new narrowbody went as the 787.

Airbus would have been in the red without the NEO. Also, it would be A320NEO or A350, they couldn't have done both.

The 787 delays also forced Boeing's hand.

Lightsaber
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N649DL
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Re: Why Has Boeing Been So Reluctant To Build A New Narrowbody?

Thu Mar 28, 2019 9:25 pm

Factors include closing the 757 line in 2005, various and costly delays for the 787 launch, and just being short sighted in general thinking the MAX would be "good enough." Other US carriers didn't start complaining about proper 757 replacements until recently, however after the MAX was launched.

What's really odd is I've seen mock ups for the 797 and it looks like a 767-200 but with never engines and 787-style wings. It looks cool, but even that isn't a 757 replacement because it has 2 isles!
 
Bradin
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Re: Why Has Boeing Been So Reluctant To Build A New Narrowbody?

Thu Mar 28, 2019 9:29 pm

"Fools rush in where angels dare to tread."

One simply doesn't design a product and hope that airlines will come. There has to be a demand. It has to meet airline requirements. It has to meet customer requirements. Otherwise people will avoid the plane or the airline.
 
Vladex
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Re: Why Has Boeing Been So Reluctant To Build A New Narrowbody?

Thu Mar 28, 2019 9:41 pm

It's a centralized corporation , they only care about short term profit and are adverse to innovation when there is a monopoly or a duopoly. I think about other big companies like Nokia, Kodak, Blackberry, Blockbuster etc.. that were in such situations and they went bust or under because they only stuck with what was working for them before BTW that 1% efficiency adds up to a lot with thousands of airplanes. Airbus is more decentralized so that could be why they are more innovative.
 
wrongwayup
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Re: Why Has Boeing Been So Reluctant To Build A New Narrowbody?

Thu Mar 28, 2019 9:44 pm

1989worstyear wrote:
Finn350 wrote:
A cleansheet narrowbody program would cost at least $10 billion, and technological advances would bring only few percent savings in better efficiency. In other words, there has not been a business case for a new cleansheet narrowbody. When engine technology has advanced enough, the time will be right, and the current 737 crisis probably also helps to launch the new cleansheet design.


Translation - NB technology peaked in with the A320 in 1988.


Ahem... A220 would like a word
 
MD80Ttail
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Re: Why Has Boeing Been So Reluctant To Build A New Narrowbody?

Thu Mar 28, 2019 9:47 pm

Because the 737 was such a superior design and Boeing was so far ahead of the curve with the original 737 the platform and basic design have continued to be economical for airlines and profitable for Boeing. The fact the basic design has lasted so long is a testament to the quality and innovation of the original design and the men and women that produced it. I consider it on par with the Dc9 and MD80 (Super 80s hahahaha) which still are workhorses in the industry today. Hoping my days on type are a bit longer with the grounding of the Max. Of course it goes w/o saying I would never wish for anyone to be harmed in any type of accident so before anyone wants to flame me for that just don’t. Accidents are horrible heart wrenching tragedies.
 
bob75013
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Re: Why Has Boeing Been So Reluctant To Build A New Narrowbody?

Thu Mar 28, 2019 9:47 pm

N649DL wrote:
Factors include closing the 757 line in 2005, various and costly delays for the 787 launch, and just being short sighted in general thinking the MAX would be "good enough."


WIth 5000+ orders on the books for MAXs, it appears Boeing was right. It is "good enough."
 
MD80Ttail
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Re: Why Has Boeing Been So Reluctant To Build A New Narrowbody?

Thu Mar 28, 2019 9:49 pm

And yes. When the last Super 80 at my airline is retired so will I. No desire to learn another type with the short time I have left flying sched service.
 
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TWA302
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Re: Why Has Boeing Been So Reluctant To Build A New Narrowbody?

Thu Mar 28, 2019 9:50 pm

wrongwayup wrote:
1989worstyear wrote:
Finn350 wrote:
A cleansheet narrowbody program would cost at least $10 billion, and technological advances would bring only few percent savings in better efficiency. In other words, there has not been a business case for a new cleansheet narrowbody. When engine technology has advanced enough, the time will be right, and the current 737 crisis probably also helps to launch the new cleansheet design.


Translation - NB technology peaked in with the A320 in 1988.


Ahem... A220 would like a word


The A220 wasn't designed by Airbus.
 
Vladex
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Re: Why Has Boeing Been So Reluctant To Build A New Narrowbody?

Thu Mar 28, 2019 9:51 pm

bob75013 wrote:
N649DL wrote:
Factors include closing the 757 line in 2005, various and costly delays for the 787 launch, and just being short sighted in general thinking the MAX would be "good enough."


WIth 5000+ orders on the books for MAXs, it appears Boeing was right. It is "good enough."


It's cheap enough and comfortable enough up until the bitter end which we have a right to watch right now. With those paper orders , it will be very interesting to see as to who bashes whom more into the ground, The Boeing or the airlines.
 
grbauc
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Re: Why Has Boeing Been So Reluctant To Build A New Narrowbody?

Thu Mar 28, 2019 9:52 pm

Chemist wrote:
Boeing actually wanted to do a new small aircraft, but their customers wanted a reengined 737 as they didn't want to wait more years for an NSA. So the MAX was born.
Notwithstanding the MAX issues, the 737 has a newer wing than the A320, and modern engines. Prior to the MAX issues, its safety record is similar. The 737 NG is more efficient than the A320 on shorter legs as it's lighter, the A320 a tiny bit better on longer legs. This is the NG versus the CEO models.
So why is a new AC so critical? OK the 737 has an old design fuselage, but many of the manufacturing processes have been updated. What is old is the fuse, the windows, the cockpit other than instruments/displays, the doors, and the control system (mostly). But what actual harm do those things do by being an older design?



Exactly the 737max and NG are both brand new planes. The legacy design holdovers I don't believe matter or make that much of a difference. The modern day 737 is a New plane. It's not a design, manufactured relic on old tooling from 30years ago plane. Its a new modern NB plane. I think way to much is made about it's supposed design age.
 
mjoelnir
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Re: Why Has Boeing Been So Reluctant To Build A New Narrowbody?

Thu Mar 28, 2019 9:52 pm

Pointing to engines is a red herring, The engine technology will never be exclusive for one air framer.
 
transswede
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Re: Why Has Boeing Been So Reluctant To Build A New Narrowbody?

Thu Mar 28, 2019 9:52 pm

bob75013 wrote:
N649DL wrote:
Factors include closing the 757 line in 2005, various and costly delays for the 787 launch, and just being short sighted in general thinking the MAX would be "good enough."


WIth 5000+ orders on the books for MAXs, it appears Boeing was right. It is "good enough."


That's not a conclusive argument. In a hypothetical parallel universe where Boeing build a new narrow-body aircraft instead of the MAX, they could have 7000 orders. This is a fairly well established duopoly, Boeing would get a large number of orders no matter what they did. So the bean-counters chose the lowest investment approach.
 
ewt340
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Re: Why Has Boeing Been So Reluctant To Build A New Narrowbody?

Thu Mar 28, 2019 9:55 pm

Since Narrowbody are smaller. The fuel improvement would be quite small compared to Widebody

Also, adding new engines could actually be cheaper overall for both Aircraft manufacturer and Airlines (no need waste tens of billions of dollars to developed, and cheaper price to purchase for Airlines, win-win for both)

Also, there is NO significant technological advancement that could really make a difference. NO new kind of engines that could help reduce fuel consumptions significantly. NO new PROVEN wing designs.

The only new big update is in the composite materials. But it's still not enough to increase the fuel efficiency significantly.

You'll just ended up with aircraft with couple percentages of savings VS tens of millions of wasted money for Airlines.
 
Vladex
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Re: Why Has Boeing Been So Reluctant To Build A New Narrowbody?

Thu Mar 28, 2019 10:08 pm

ewt340 wrote:
Since Narrowbody are smaller. The fuel improvement would be quite small compared to Widebody

Also, adding new engines could actually be cheaper overall for both Aircraft manufacturer and Airlines (no need waste tens of billions of dollars to developed, and cheaper price to purchase for Airlines, win-win for both)

Also, there is NO significant technological advancement that could really make a difference. NO new kind of engines that could help reduce fuel consumptions significantly. NO new PROVEN wing designs.

The only new big update is in the composite materials. But it's still not enough to increase the fuel efficiency significantly.

You'll just ended up with aircraft with couple percentages of savings VS tens of millions of wasted money for Airlines.


There is 5 to 10 times more narrow bodies so those small improvements add up very quickly

Adding new engines only works if there is potential and space for them and if it doesn't nullify the advantage that there is today or if they disturb the the basic fundamentals of design and yes I am looking at the MAX.
 
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Re: Why Has Boeing Been So Reluctant To Build A New Narrowbody?

Thu Mar 28, 2019 10:19 pm

grbauc wrote:
Exactly the 737max and NG are both brand new planes. The legacy design holdovers I don't believe matter or make that much of a difference. The modern day 737 is a New plane. It's not a design, manufactured relic on old tooling from 30years ago plane. Its a new modern NB plane. I think way to much is made about it's supposed design age.


MCAS and the exposure of those change limitations imposed to keep grandfathering in various forms
has bypassed you completely, right?

I suppose with just forcing cert requirements from time of the A320 introduction
would make the 737 fully uncompetitive.
Murphy is an optimist
 
ewt340
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Re: Why Has Boeing Been So Reluctant To Build A New Narrowbody?

Thu Mar 28, 2019 10:30 pm

Vladex wrote:
ewt340 wrote:
Since Narrowbody are smaller. The fuel improvement would be quite small compared to Widebody

Also, adding new engines could actually be cheaper overall for both Aircraft manufacturer and Airlines (no need waste tens of billions of dollars to developed, and cheaper price to purchase for Airlines, win-win for both)

Also, there is NO significant technological advancement that could really make a difference. NO new kind of engines that could help reduce fuel consumptions significantly. NO new PROVEN wing designs.

The only new big update is in the composite materials. But it's still not enough to increase the fuel efficiency significantly.

You'll just ended up with aircraft with couple percentages of savings VS tens of millions of wasted money for Airlines.


There is 5 to 10 times more narrow bodies so those small improvements add up very quickly

Adding new engines only works if there is potential and space for them and if it doesn't nullify the advantage that there is today or if they disturb the the basic fundamentals of design and yes I am looking at the MAX.


The fuel savings add up BUT, the purchase price also add up. More aircraft mean more aircraft to purchase. New aircraft needed extra expenditures on trainings, operations and maintenance.

So it's basically, fuel savings VS all the extra expenditures required for the new products to up and running and higher purchase price.

Which for now, the fuel savings would be more expensive compared to the other factor to make economical sense.
 
grbauc
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Re: Why Has Boeing Been So Reluctant To Build A New Narrowbody?

Thu Mar 28, 2019 10:40 pm

No I just think way too much is made about how the 737 and even the A320 are old designs. 1967 and 1988. The Max/Neo are completely new designed planes. Investigators are looking into the Max's Software that is all new for the plane.
Until the investigation comes out and says that legacy/Grandfathering design are the cause and a problem, I'm not going to jump on the modern day internet sleuth detective club bandwagon that max is doomed because its a frankenstein plane.
Hey I personally want a clean sheet NB from both manufactures, but the 737NG record speaks for itself and I'm not sure why the Max won't one day also.
 
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Re: Why Has Boeing Been So Reluctant To Build A New Narrowbody?

Thu Mar 28, 2019 10:43 pm

There is no business case to invest money in a clean sheet design when an incremental upgrade to an existing type gets 5000+ orders. I doubt we see very many new types pop up in the next 50 years outside of the NMA and the NSA. I do see 787 max/neo version in the late 2030s since it is just such a great aircraft and could nicely round out Boeings widebody lineup.
 
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Re: Why Has Boeing Been So Reluctant To Build A New Narrowbody?

Thu Mar 28, 2019 10:47 pm

Kilopond wrote:
The beancounters and the management had ordered the engineers to milk the old cow as long as possible. Most likely under the pressure of certain shareholders. Applying just minimal investments for maximal SHORT-TERM profits is a widely spread approach.


This.

Innovation is dead as long as the beancounters are running the show.
RIP McDonnell Douglas
RIP US Airways
 
Kilopond
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Re: Why Has Boeing Been So Reluctant To Build A New Narrowbody?

Thu Mar 28, 2019 10:59 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Why hasn't Airbus done a clean sheet narrowbody?[...]


Maybe because the 32X can still easily accomodate a full-sized LEAP-X under her wings? Keep in mind that the special Boeing version of that engine is just a downsized and downgraded one.
 
Bobloblaw
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Re: Why Has Boeing Been So Reluctant To Build A New Narrowbody?

Thu Mar 28, 2019 11:06 pm

How much did Boeing spend on the 787 program? Has any manufacturer rolled out two completely new models within 5 years of one another? The 787 was Boeing’s most difficult program. I don’t think they could have done a 737 replacement and the 787 within a few years of one another
 
sphealey
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Re: Why Has Boeing Been So Reluctant To Build A New Narrowbody?

Thu Mar 28, 2019 11:12 pm

Chemist wrote:
Boeing actually wanted to do a new small aircraft, but their customers wanted a reengined 737 as they didn't want to wait more years for an NSA. So the MAX was born. [...]

The customers who prefer the 737 also did not (and do not) want to pay the price premium that an all-new Boeing design would cost, nor to fully retrain their pilots and mechanics. The 737 is cost effective and there are many airlines who prefer {better engines + fresh cabin + lower price} over a new design whose benefits to them are theoretical at best.
 
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seabosdca
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Re: Why Has Boeing Been So Reluctant To Build A New Narrowbody?

Thu Mar 28, 2019 11:28 pm

It's not quite right to describe the 737 as though it hasn't changed in 40 years. The NG was substantially new, almost in the same relationship to the Classic that the A330 had to the A300. But Boeing certainly hasn't been reluctant to explore a new airplane—it's the customers who have been reluctant to sign on for it, because they don't want to wait. That may change once the neo and MAX have saturated the market, because further growth of the A320 family will require significantly more extensive (and thus time-consuming) changes than the neo received, including especially a new or heavily revised wing.
 
N649DL
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Re: Why Has Boeing Been So Reluctant To Build A New Narrowbody?

Thu Mar 28, 2019 11:36 pm

bob75013 wrote:
N649DL wrote:
Factors include closing the 757 line in 2005, various and costly delays for the 787 launch, and just being short sighted in general thinking the MAX would be "good enough."


WIth 5000+ orders on the books for MAXs, it appears Boeing was right. It is "good enough."


Doesn't matter as many capable aircraft aren't big sellers and vise versa such as the 764.
 
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BaconButty
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Re: Why Has Boeing Been So Reluctant To Build A New Narrowbody?

Thu Mar 28, 2019 11:45 pm

Timescales.

I think the thing that is missed is the R&D programs at the time that were aimed at maturing the technologies that would enable a new narrow body. This was clean skies 1 in the EU - NASA had their equivalents too. Initially they were targeting flight testing prototype in the early 2010's in order to make available for incorporation into a launch around now for EIS c2025.

About 15 years ago everything looked peachy, and the tea leaves were pointing at Boeing following up the 787 (Y2) with Y1 fairly rapidly, perhaps entering service as early as 2012. As the 787 program ran into issues, we started hearing talk of 2017 and then 2019. The problem with Boeing launching an new Narrowbody to EIS in 2019 is that they could find themselves facing a competitor only 6 years later that is a step change on technology wise. Which is why Airbus could be reasonably confident in launching the NEO that Boeing would follow suite, and both clean sheet replacements would be pushed back to 2030 at the earliest.

In interesting article from flight international, 2011, gives in insight into the thinking. It looks at two enabling technology projects, the fuel cell APU and Laminar flow wing, and makes it clear that the launch of the NEO pushed a clean sheet back to c2030.
https://www.cleansky.eu/sites/default/f ... aminar.pdf

Wing:
Airbus, along with Saab Group, Dassault and the Fraunhofer research institute, is working on a laminar flow wing demonstrator, which is to be flight-tested on an A340 in 2014 and which should lead to a production wing design for a next-generation short- to mediumrange aircraft.
...
“In principle, laminarity is providing us with an optimum travelling speed, which is slightly below what we need for long-range aircraft. So the target is absolutely the short- and medium-range class of aircraft, because the trip length as well as required speeds are pretty much playing in the same direction as the technology,” Koenig says. Airbus has regularly pushed back the development of a next-generation, single-aisle aircraft and predicts a clean-sheet successor will not arrive before 2030, blaming the unavailability of new powerplants for the later arrival. “We have now a bit more time which is very good for us, because there are still a lot of challenges in the development of the technology. In the end, we are happy that the timeframe is not as close as it was before,” Koenig says. This indicates that the decision to re-engine the A320 has pushed the production of an all new aircraft further back, and that the longterm sales record of the updated twinjet – as well as its competitors, including a potential new aircraft from Boeing – will determine when Airbus has to bid farewell to the existing generation.


Fuel cell:
AIRBUS HAS partnered with Parker Aerospace to develop a hydrogen based replacement system for the auxiliary power unit, which could find its first application on the projected next-generation single-aisle aircraft beyond 2020.
...
A first application could be on the projected narrowbody successor A30X, Krein says. Airbus has progressively pushed the arrival of that generation back, currently forecasting service entry around 2030.
Down with that sort of thing!
 
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Veigar
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Re: Why Has Boeing Been So Reluctant To Build A New Narrowbody?

Thu Mar 28, 2019 11:49 pm

Southwest.
 
GalaxyFlyer
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Re: Why Has Boeing Been So Reluctant To Build A New Narrowbody?

Fri Mar 29, 2019 12:17 am

Bobloblaw wrote:
How much did Boeing spend on the 787 program? Has any manufacturer rolled out two completely new models within 5 years of one another? The 787 was Boeing’s most difficult program. I don’t think they could have done a 737 replacement and the 787 within a few years of one another


Bombardier rolled out the CRJ-influenced 604, Lear 45, Global Express and Challenger 300 almost consecutively. Shortly followed by the CRJ 700/900 with a new wing. The A220 and Global 7500 were virtually concurrent until delays started happening. Now, you could persuasively that it bankrupted company. Both, to my astonishment, seem to be future successes.

GF
 
Bhoy
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Re: Why Has Boeing Been So Reluctant To Build A New Narrowbody?

Fri Mar 29, 2019 12:21 am

Bobloblaw wrote:
Has any manufacturer rolled out two completely new models within 5 years of one another?

Do the 757 and 767 count? They had Cockpit commonality as designed together, but other than that, they were very much completely different models (certainly more so than the 332/342) with different Cabin diameters/Wings?
 
1989worstyear
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Re: Why Has Boeing Been So Reluctant To Build A New Narrowbody?

Fri Mar 29, 2019 12:48 am

TWA302 wrote:
wrongwayup wrote:
1989worstyear wrote:

Translation - NB technology peaked in with the A320 in 1988.


Ahem... A220 would like a word


The A220 wasn't designed by Airbus.


Yet it took 25 years, and it's still taking a backseat to the simple re-engined 1988/9 A320-200 and the troubled MAX.

You have to remember - the first generation A320-200 is still being ordered over 30 years after EIS (CEO). Never has one distinct variant lasted this long. I will defer to other posts for reasons why.
Last edited by 1989worstyear on Fri Mar 29, 2019 12:49 am, edited 1 time in total.
Stuck at age 15 thanks to the certification date of the A320-200 and my parents' decision to postpone having a kid by 3 years. At least there's Dignitas...
 
AntonioMartin
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Re: Why Has Boeing Been So Reluctant To Build A New Narrowbody?

Fri Mar 29, 2019 12:48 am

Airlines do love 737s, recent tragedies notwithstanding. So do I...great flying in them and a beauty to spot.

That said, what is NSA and NMA????
 
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Re: Why Has Boeing Been So Reluctant To Build A New Narrowbody?

Fri Mar 29, 2019 1:20 am

transswede wrote:
bob75013 wrote:
WIth 5000+ orders on the books for MAXs, it appears Boeing was right. It is "good enough."


That's not a conclusive argument. In a hypothetical parallel universe where Boeing build a new narrow-body aircraft instead of the MAX, they could have 7000 orders.


In that world, Boeing spent $10 billion to sell 2 thousand more aircraft.
 
ltbewr
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Re: Why Has Boeing Been So Reluctant To Build A New Narrowbody?

Fri Mar 29, 2019 1:28 am

I think another problem with a new, clean sheet narrowbody is that you need to make several versions with their own special and optimized designs that need partial certification. You need 'short haul' ones for flights of 500 miles or less, some for 500-1500 miles, others for 1500-2500 miles and of course, 2500 + miles (with a good tailwind) for TATL. Short haul ones would seen more cycles vs. long-haul ones and so all would have to meet that need. That is why the number for a new 'clean sheet' would be $10B+.
 
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Re: Why Has Boeing Been So Reluctant To Build A New Narrowbody?

Fri Mar 29, 2019 1:30 am

GSP psgr wrote:
The last cleansheet narrowbody design Boeing built was the 757, over 35 years ago. ... (T)heir only current narrowbody offering in the 737 dates back to the late 1960s.


You know, at this point the MAX-10 probably has as much in common with the 757 as it does with the 737-100.
 
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Kindanew
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Re: Why Has Boeing Been So Reluctant To Build A New Narrowbody?

Fri Mar 29, 2019 1:45 am

Bobloblaw wrote:
Has any manufacturer rolled out two completely new models within 5 years of one another?


The A320 first flew in 1987 and the A340 first flew in 1991.
 
Vladex
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Re: Why Has Boeing Been So Reluctant To Build A New Narrowbody?

Fri Mar 29, 2019 1:57 am

NameOmitted wrote:
transswede wrote:
bob75013 wrote:
WIth 5000+ orders on the books for MAXs, it appears Boeing was right. It is "good enough."


That's not a conclusive argument. In a hypothetical parallel universe where Boeing build a new narrow-body aircraft instead of the MAX, they could have 7000 orders.


In that world, Boeing spent $10 billion to sell 2 thousand more aircraft.


If they insist on doing the same course . they will be spending a lot more or they will not have anything to spend so that problem will be solved.
 
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NWAROOSTER
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Re: Why Has Boeing Been So Reluctant To Build A New Narrowbody?

Fri Mar 29, 2019 2:47 am

Veigar wrote:
Southwest.

Southwest Airlines is one of the major factors in the continued production of the 737. That airline keeps pushing Boeing to build the 737. Southwest has flown the 737 almost exclusively with the exception of a few 727s that Braniff Airlines was force to "lease" Southwest Airlines. Southwest Airlines has operated all variates of the 737 from the 737-200 through the 737-800, except the 737-600. They have about 34 737-800 MAX aircraft that are now in storage. This means that Southwest has about 760 active 737s that are operational if you include the the 737 MAX. They have about 287 737s that they have withdrawn from service. Southwest is and has operated about just over 1000 737s. Southwest is very interested in the 737 as it is the only fleet type they operate and would like to continue operating for the foreseeable future. If it was not for Southwest Boeing would have begun designing a new narrow body aircraft at least ten years ago.
The 737 MAX is more than likely going to be the last 737 variant that Boeing is going to build. The new build aircraft will most likely have some similarities to the latest 737 but will not be compromised by the limitations of the 737 going back to 1960. The 737 replacement needs a new landing gear, better ground clearance, engines, or power plants, that are not restricted due to the low ground clearance of the current 737. These are jus some of the limitations that need to be addressed. Southwest must be working with Boing on a replacement aircraft that will meet their needs well into the future and possibly have some growth possibilities along with better materials and be designed for the future.
Boeing is squeezing the last nickel out of the 737 and and if Boeing does not plan for the future there may not be any future for Boeing. :old:
Procrastination Is The Theft Of Time.......
 
TTailedTiger
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Re: Why Has Boeing Been So Reluctant To Build A New Narrowbody?

Fri Mar 29, 2019 2:53 am

Kilopond wrote:
The beancounters and the management had ordered the engineers to milk the old cow as long as possible. Most likely under the pressure of certain shareholders. Applying just minimal investments for maximal SHORT-TERM profits is a widely spread approach.


Not true at all. Boeing wanted a new narrowbody in 2011 but AA and WN said no. They were forced into the Max for fear of losing two big customers to Airbus. They were able to salvage half of the AA order by building the Max.
 
airzona11
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Re: Why Has Boeing Been So Reluctant To Build A New Narrowbody?

Fri Mar 29, 2019 3:01 am

The redundancy of these threads, it all just recycles weekly. Airbus and Boeing are doing incredible financially, they have a duopoly, airlines buy their product. The end.
 
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TVNWZ
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Re: Why Has Boeing Been So Reluctant To Build A New Narrowbody?

Fri Mar 29, 2019 3:01 am

Vladex wrote:
It's a centralized corporation , they only care about short term profit and are adverse to innovation when there is a monopoly.


I would say the 737 is very LONG term profit.
 
Max Q
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Re: Why Has Boeing Been So Reluctant To Build A New Narrowbody?

Fri Mar 29, 2019 3:10 am

Actually this was all precipitated by the massive blunder that was closing the 757 line


Slowing production of that aircraft to a crawl while developing a NG version would have saved billions in future costs and eliminated the dilemma of the 797 and what configuration it should have


Long, thin routes are all the rage these days and a 5000NM range 757NG would have been extremely popular, customers would have come back in droves



The billions saved by persisting with the superb 757 as they did with the 767 would have given Boeing the financial breathing space to develop a clean sheet replacement for the 737


Which would now be owning the small narrowbody market


The 737NG should have been the end of the line for that type
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1989worstyear
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Re: Why Has Boeing Been So Reluctant To Build A New Narrowbody?

Fri Mar 29, 2019 3:25 am

Max Q wrote:
Actually this was all precipitated by the massive blunder that was closing the 757 line


Slowing production of that aircraft to a crawl while developing a NG version would have saved billions in future costs and eliminated the dilemma of the 797 and what configuration it should have


Long, thin routes are all the rage these days and a 5000NM range 757NG would have been extremely popular, customers would have come back in droves



The billions saved by persisting with the superb 757 as they did with the 767 would have given Boeing the financial breathing space to develop a clean sheet replacement for the 737


Which would now be owning the small narrowbody market


The 737NG should have been the end of the line for that type


This has been answered several times in these forums - even though I agree with you to an extent. I remember Boeing was studying using elements of the 757 airframe as a smaller NB (737) replacement, and I wonder how they could have used the wingbox/undercarriage for a smaller and lighter design.

1982 certification killed the 757. Long before EFIS, composites, ARINC 449 air data buses, etc... Basically a 2 engined 727 system wise.
Stuck at age 15 thanks to the certification date of the A320-200 and my parents' decision to postpone having a kid by 3 years. At least there's Dignitas...
 
planecane
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Re: Why Has Boeing Been So Reluctant To Build A New Narrowbody?

Fri Mar 29, 2019 3:28 am

If Boeing only sells 5000 MAXs and spent $2 billion to develop it, that's $400,000 per plane. If they spent $10 billion on a clean sheet and sold 7000 of them, it's over $1.4 million per plane. To get ROI, the airlines would have to be willing to spend over $1 million more per plane.

At the time the MAX vs clean sheet decision was made, it was determined that the clean sheet couldn't be enough cheaper to operate for airlines to pay the additional cost.

It's that simple. Same reason Airbus did the NEO instead of a clean sheet.
 
swaluvfa
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Re: Why Has Boeing Been So Reluctant To Build A New Narrowbody?

Fri Mar 29, 2019 3:29 am

Did Boeing ever consider an overhaul of the 757-200? Was it possible to lighten it, add newer avionics, newer engines, more fuel efficient, etc. while keeping its performance measures?

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