I doubt Joyce is going anywhere until 2022 at the earliest. He has already said he wants to wait until Project Sunrise is flying, and so long as the bumper profits keep rolling in the Board won't do anything to get rid of him. That alone is reason enough for the likes of Strambi and Hrdlicka to move on. Why wait 3-5 years with no guarantee that you will be rewarded at the end of it? You might as well move on now and build your career.
The next few years are legacy building for Joyce. Few will remember the events of 2011 a decade later. By the time he retires it would have been a rollercoaster 15 years, with the lows of retrenching so much international market share and the 2011 show down, through to record profits and then launching PER-LHR and ultimately SYD-LHR.
It's far too soon to write the eulogy but I'm pretty confident to say that history will look at him as the most instrumental CEO in Qantas' history.
It's hard to say. The best way to protect your legacy is to go out on top.
As we stand today, it is likely International is break-even at best with oil prices and sluggish world economy hampering profitability. It is likely there will be a change of government with unions energised to push for greater increases. In recent years QF has massively reduced depreciation costs with reduced capex and no depreciation on the 747s which were all written off in 2012. Capex has to increase in the next few years as the 747s are replaced with 787s and the narrowbody replacement program gets underway; an increase in depreciation has to follow. Domestic remains a powerhouse with both airlines making super-profits though oil prices and an economic downturn and the two risks here.
David Thodey is viewed as a great CEO of Telstra because he is seen as having turned around the business; Andy Penn much less so even though many of the hurdles that Penn is now hitting were evident back in Thodey's days; he just got out before they turned toxic. Joyce may learn from that lesson.
717, 721/2, 732/3/4/5/7/8/9, 742/3/4, 752/3, 762/3, 772/E/W, 788/9, 300,310, 319,320/1, 332/3, 359, 388, DC9, DC10, F28, F100, 142,143, E75/90, CR2, D82/3/4, SF3, ATR