FSDan
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Re: OAG Changes 3/31/3019:AV Pulls More Routes;DL Drops SLC-ELP;G4 Adds Intl?;UA Bulks Up 2nd Tier SFO Transcons

Mon Apr 01, 2019 1:23 am

B757rocket wrote:
Enilria,
Thank you so very much for your hard work compiling and posting this data every week. It’s beyond appreciated.

. The BOS mini-hub is apparently a bit weak out of the gate
DL BOS-DCA SEP 4>3[0]
DL BOS-EWR SEP 3>1.8[0]
DL BOS-LGA JAN 15>13[12]
DL BOS-ORD SEP 3>2[0]
DL BOS-SFO NOV 1.6>1.0[1.3]


It’s due to gate availability with the Southwest relocation from Terminal A to B. Plans were to have all gates and ready by September 1st, it’s now the second half of September. Hence the reduction in the first half of September but it’s full steam ahead from the middle of the month onwards.


That makes sense - thanks for the insight. I just checked the schedules on a Monday in late September and BOS-DCA is 6x daily, BOS-ORD is 5x daily, BOS-EWR 4x daily, etc. Seems like DL's still committed to the originally announced frequencies once they get use of the whole facility. Regardless of how things go in the long run for DL's BOS hublet, there's nothing to see here just yet...
This is my signature until I think of a better one.
 
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enilria
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Re: OAG Changes 3/31/3019:AV Pulls More Routes;DL Drops SLC-ELP;G4 Adds Intl?;UA Bulks Up 2nd Tier SFO Transcons

Mon Apr 01, 2019 1:29 am

DL747400 wrote:
B757rocket wrote:
Enilria,
Thank you so very much for your hard work compiling and posting this data every week. It’s beyond appreciated.

. The BOS mini-hub is apparently a bit weak out of the gate
DL BOS-DCA SEP 4>3[0]
DL BOS-EWR SEP 3>1.8[0]
DL BOS-LGA JAN 15>13[12]
DL BOS-ORD SEP 3>2[0]
DL BOS-SFO NOV 1.6>1.0[1.3]


It’s due to gate availability with the Southwest relocation from Terminal A to B. Plans were to have all gates and ready by September 1st, it’s now the second half of September. Hence the reduction in the first half of September but it’s full steam ahead from the middle of the month onwards.

Every Sunday, coffee in hand, waiting for your report.


But it makes a better story for the OP to state that there is weakness in DL's BOS buildup. :roll: Stating the facts is only going to frustrate.

Plus, lets inject some data into this, shall we? Delta has the same number of departures more or less in August and October. Why would they have to shrink for just two weeks in September because of WN? Is WN borrowing DL gates for 2 weeks? Thanks for the insult, BTW. Always appreciated.
tphuang wrote:
or maybe enilria has seen some of the yield I've posted on a.net out of BOS.

On a.net, airlines only drop or reduce routes because of random operational reasons and the planning departments of the fanboys are too dumb to consider economics. Ironic, is it not?
phxa340 wrote:
Did AS fire all their route planners? They have filed barely anything over the last 2ish months I feel like. It’s a little concerning to see them on auto pilot, especially as they battle DL in Seattle, UA in SFO and everyone at LAX.

They've been interviewing for a new VP of Planning, so yes things are probably waiting for that decision.
SeaDoo wrote:
As always, thanks enilria for the Sunday updates.

:)
RJNUT wrote:
I'm going to go out on a limb and say that 9X's DSI-TPA is a maintenance bridge between Mid-South system and new Florida system

Could be. Interesting route.
Flaps wrote:
It has long been rumored that G4 has long term plans to fly these routes themselves. That said however I have seen no sign nor heard no word whatsoever that this is imminent.

It's probably either a misfile or a change in policy to publish charters.
 
LovePrunesAnet
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Re: OAG Changes 3/31/3019:AV Pulls More Routes;DL Drops SLC-ELP;G4 Adds Intl?;UA Bulks Up 2nd Tier SFO Transcons

Mon Apr 01, 2019 1:31 am

Fargo wrote:
SeaDoo wrote:
As always, thanks enilria for the Sunday updates.

I realize not every airline has a presence in every market, but it seems odd to me that DL is again going back to only having ELP accessible via ATL. Obviously I am wrong, but it seems like they should be able to make able to make at least one flight a day work to and from SLC. It also shows my ignorance, and I realize what a mega-hub ATL is, but in my armchair CEO mind SLC would be more doable than ATL.


Since DL doesn't have a Texas hub, it's kind of hard to serve it the way AA/UA/WN do.

SLC I guess just doesn't have enough O&D to ELP and it may not be as ideal as DEN/PHX is for connections west? I have no idea........


ELP service on DL will all be fixed with the rumored AUS hub creating a plethora of intra-TX flying from ELP via connections in AUS
JK :rotfl:
 
klm617
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Re: OAG Changes 3/31/3019:AV Pulls More Routes;DL Drops SLC-ELP;G4 Adds Intl?;UA Bulks Up 2nd Tier SFO Transcons

Mon Apr 01, 2019 1:33 am

You my friend are one of only 3 members who's comments I respect on here with your unbiased and objective commentaries on the aviation industry. Others on here for some reason let their egos get in the way from allowing them to see the issues in avaiation from all side not just the side they view it from. Thank you for being you and your brilliant posts.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
toltommy
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Re: OAG Changes 3/31/3019:AV Pulls More Routes;DL Drops SLC-ELP;G4 Adds Intl?;UA Bulks Up 2nd Tier SFO Transcons

Mon Apr 01, 2019 1:36 am

AA moving ORD-EYW is a great addition. DFW started as weekends only and quickly went daily. It would be nice to see the Saturday only PHL flight move to daily as well.
A300/A310/A319/A320/A321/A332/A333/707/712/727/732/733/734/735/738/739/752/753/762/763/764/772/789/DC8/DC9-10/30/40/50/MD81/83/87/88/90/L1011-/250/500/CRJ200/440/700/900/EMB135/140/145/170/175/190/328Jet/F70/SF3/BE1/J31
 
Dominion301
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Re: OAG Changes 3/31/3019:AV Pulls More Routes;DL Drops SLC-ELP;G4 Adds Intl?;UA Bulks Up 2nd Tier SFO Transcons

Mon Apr 01, 2019 1:55 am

aaflyer777 wrote:
AC BOS-YVR JUN 1.0>0.5[1.0]

This is a little surprising, they did pretty well on this route last year. Wonder if it has to do with aircraft availability


If you look at all the AC adjustments, they’re long transborder routes. This is no doubt all MAX-related. AC has taken the 7M8 out of the schedule until Canada Day.
 
n7371f
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Re: OAG Changes 3/31/3019:AV Pulls More Routes;DL Drops SLC-ELP;G4 Adds Intl?;UA Bulks Up 2nd Tier SFO Transcons

Mon Apr 01, 2019 3:47 am

AS lops off a frequency on SFO-SNA from 6 to 5. Just one flight. But continues with the previous optics of cuts on former Virgin markets for AS.
 
SurfandSnow
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Re: OAG Changes 3/31/3019:AV Pulls More Routes;DL Drops SLC-ELP;G4 Adds Intl?;UA Bulks Up 2nd Tier SFO Transcons

Mon Apr 01, 2019 4:40 am

maps4ltd wrote:
I wonder if DL could jump on LAX-ELP. Then again, unlike AA or UA, it doesn't appear to be very invested in LAX these days.


DL is investing a tremendous amount of money into LAX. The Terminal 3 operation is a serious downgrade in terms of pax experience from what DL offered in Terminal 5 and Terminal 6. The new terminal facilities can't come soon enough. Until then, as with SLC, DL is holding off on adding new service so as to further strain existing subpar facilities.
Flying in the middle seat of coach is much better than not flying at all!
 
OB1504
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Re: OAG Changes 3/31/3019:AV Pulls More Routes;DL Drops SLC-ELP;G4 Adds Intl?;UA Bulks Up 2nd Tier SFO Transcons

Mon Apr 01, 2019 5:07 am

Is Norwegian going to be serving MIA and FLL simultaneously now?
 
Brickell305
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Re: OAG Changes 3/31/3019:AV Pulls More Routes;DL Drops SLC-ELP;G4 Adds Intl?;UA Bulks Up 2nd Tier SFO Transcons

Mon Apr 01, 2019 11:40 am

OB1504 wrote:
Is Norwegian going to be serving MIA and FLL simultaneously now?

Yes
 
traindoc
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Re: OAG Changes 3/31/3019:AV Pulls More Routes;DL Drops SLC-ELP;G4 Adds Intl?;UA Bulks Up 2nd Tier SFO Transcons

Mon Apr 01, 2019 1:49 pm

Thanks for all your hard work, week in, week out!
 
Miners2007
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Re: OAG Changes 3/31/3019:AV Pulls More Routes;DL Drops SLC-ELP;G4 Adds Intl?;UA Bulks Up 2nd Tier SFO Transcons

Mon Apr 01, 2019 1:53 pm

maps4ltd wrote:
I wonder if DL could jump on LAX-ELP. Then again, unlike AA or UA, it doesn't appear to be very invested in LAX these days.


I wouldn't say that AA isn't invested on LAX-ELP. They are now running 3 flights a day to LAX. United would not be invested in on LAX.
 
rnav2dlrey
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Re: OAG Changes 3/31/3019:AV Pulls More Routes;DL Drops SLC-ELP;G4 Adds Intl?;UA Bulks Up 2nd Tier SFO Transcons

Mon Apr 01, 2019 2:05 pm

i was disappointed to see no EK BOS-LHR add for this april 1.
 
N292UX
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Re: OAG Changes 3/31/3019:AV Pulls More Routes;DL Drops SLC-ELP;G4 Adds Intl?;UA Bulks Up 2nd Tier SFO Transcons

Mon Apr 01, 2019 2:18 pm

It's a bit of a shame that DL can't get ELP to work from anywhere besides ATL. With that said, it is rather hard for them compete in TX markets outside DFW/IAH/AUS/SAT considering the heavy competition from AA/WN/UA on those routes. Could DL get MSP-ELP to work? Probably. MSP has a stronger feed than SLC does and serves a lot of the markets served from SLC plus many more. Will DL launch MSP-ELP? Probably not. Time will tell.
 
AirFiero
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Re: OAG Changes 3/31/3019:AV Pulls More Routes;DL Drops SLC-ELP;G4 Adds Intl?;UA Bulks Up 2nd Tier SFO Transcons

Mon Apr 01, 2019 2:38 pm

red66mustang wrote:
phxa340 wrote:
Did AS fire all their route planners? They have filed barely anything over the last 2ish months I feel like. It’s a little concerning to see them on auto pilot, especially as they battle DL in Seattle, UA in SFO and everyone at LAX.


Their VP of Network Planning was cut with the management layoffs in late 2018 so I have to wonder if that might have anything to do with it. Additionally, haven’t they told Wall Street that their growth is pretty low this year? Under 2%? With little growth planned that would lend itself to very little new route news.


That, and any ideas they might have had might be put on hold until the Max 8 thing is resolved. How many Max’s does AS have, out of what size 737 fleet?
 
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psa1011
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Re: OAG Changes 3/31/3019:AV Pulls More Routes;DL Drops SLC-ELP;G4 Adds Intl?;UA Bulks Up 2nd Tier SFO Transcons

Mon Apr 01, 2019 2:54 pm

n7371f wrote:
AS lops off a frequency on SFO-SNA from 6 to 5. Just one flight. But continues with the previous optics of cuts on former Virgin markets for AS.


Actually AS added this 4x daily after the merger. VX tried it years ago and cut it in its own: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.ocregi ... ights/amp/
 
flyfresno
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Re: OAG Changes 3/31/3019:AV Pulls More Routes;DL Drops SLC-ELP;G4 Adds Intl?;UA Bulks Up 2nd Tier SFO Transcons

Mon Apr 01, 2019 2:54 pm

FATFlyer wrote:
AVLAirlineFreq wrote:
ELP is the farthest west DL spoke not to have a connection to another DL hub, right? Certainly the largest market, too?

As another poster noted, DL has been off and on the ELP-SLC route for years. It didn't last long at all this time.

Unless you are referring to cities that DL currently connects to ATL then ELP is not correct.

Fresno MSA is larger than El Paso MSA and further west. Using the 2017 census estimates: Fresno MSA is 989,255, El Paso MSA is 844,818.

Fresno currently only has 3X CRJ/CR7s to SLC on DL, no other DL hub flights.

Thru the late 1990s, DL had a large schedule at FAT. There was mainline service to SLC, LAX and RNO plus connection flights to BUR and others. That was all discontinued leaving only FAT-SLC.


You didn’t see the announcement today? SEA, ATL, MSP all starting in June. ATL will be on the 767-400, MSP the A330, and SEA will be a quick round trip for the A350 in between NRT flights...so ELP is correct :-)
 
MIflyer12
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Re: OAG Changes 3/31/3019:AV Pulls More Routes;DL Drops SLC-ELP;G4 Adds Intl?;UA Bulks Up 2nd Tier SFO Transcons

Mon Apr 01, 2019 2:56 pm

N292UX wrote:
It's a bit of a shame that DL can't get ELP to work from anywhere besides ATL. With that said, it is rather hard for them compete in TX markets outside DFW/IAH/AUS/SAT considering the heavy competition from AA/WN/UA on those routes. Could DL get MSP-ELP to work?


MSP? Given the number and size of auto suppliers just across the border from ELP I'm surprised there isn't a DTW-ELP. It ought to be within range of an E75. M-F, down mid-morning, back early afternoon. Maybe everybody's just learned to live with the many available DTW-DFW-ELP.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: OAG Changes 3/31/3019:AV Pulls More Routes;DL Drops SLC-ELP;G4 Adds Intl?;UA Bulks Up 2nd Tier SFO Transcons

Mon Apr 01, 2019 2:59 pm

maps4ltd wrote:
I wonder if DL could jump on LAX-ELP. Then again, unlike AA or UA, it doesn't appear to be very invested in LAX these days.

[/quote]

You know the scale of DL's construction at LAX, right? ($1.9 Billion) You know DL carried 1.5 million more passengers from LAX in 2018 than did UA, right?
 
N292UX
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Re: OAG Changes 3/31/3019:AV Pulls More Routes;DL Drops SLC-ELP;G4 Adds Intl?;UA Bulks Up 2nd Tier SFO Transcons

Mon Apr 01, 2019 3:01 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
N292UX wrote:
It's a bit of a shame that DL can't get ELP to work from anywhere besides ATL. With that said, it is rather hard for them compete in TX markets outside DFW/IAH/AUS/SAT considering the heavy competition from AA/WN/UA on those routes. Could DL get MSP-ELP to work?


MSP? Given the number and size of auto suppliers just across the border from ELP I'm surprised there isn't a DTW-ELP. It ought to be within range of an E75. M-F, down mid-morning, back early afternoon. Maybe everybody's just learned to live with the many available DTW-DFW-ELP.

That's my bet. I know ELP is one of the largest markets not served from DTW, but I'm guessing DL would rather route people through ATL while others would just do DTW-DFW-ELP. My theory behind MSP being their best option is more due to the fact that DL has a stronger MSP-Texas operation than they do on DTW-Texas. That being said, it's not inconceivable that DL would choose DTW over MSP if they were to launch another route from ELP.
 
flyfresno
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Re: OAG Changes 3/31/3019:AV Pulls More Routes;DL Drops SLC-ELP;G4 Adds Intl?;UA Bulks Up 2nd Tier SFO Transcons

Mon Apr 01, 2019 3:26 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
maps4ltd wrote:
I wonder if DL could jump on LAX-ELP. Then again, unlike AA or UA, it doesn't appear to be very invested in LAX these days.


You know the scale of DL's construction at LAX, right? ($1.9 Billion) You know DL carried 1.5 million more passengers from LAX in 2018 than did UA, right?


UA and AA both serve quite a few more smaller cities from LAX than DL does. I’m curious to see if DL starts competing more with the other two to smaller places like SBA, FAT, RNO, and others once construction on 3 is done.
 
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enilria
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Re: OAG Changes 3/31/3019:AV Pulls More Routes;DL Drops SLC-ELP;G4 Adds Intl?;UA Bulks Up 2nd Tier SFO Transcons

Mon Apr 01, 2019 3:41 pm

klm617 wrote:
You my friend are one of only 3 members who's comments I respect on here with your unbiased and objective commentaries on the aviation industry. Others on here for some reason let their egos get in the way from allowing them to see the issues in avaiation from all side not just the side they view it from. Thank you for being you and your brilliant posts.

Thanks :)
traindoc wrote:
Thanks for all your hard work, week in, week out!

:)

I'm glad I didn't post any April Fools pranks this year. The site is melting down with them!
 
jplatts
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Re: OAG Changes 3/31/3019:AV Pulls More Routes;DL Drops SLC-ELP;G4 Adds Intl?;UA Bulks Up 2nd Tier SFO Transcons

Mon Apr 01, 2019 3:49 pm

enilria wrote:
I wonder if this capacity jump on SFO transcons will stick
*UA PIT-SFO NOV 1.0>2[1.0] DEC 1.0>2[1.4] JAN 1.0>2[1.2]
*UA RDU-SFO NOV 1.0>2[1.9] DEC 1.0>2[1.9] JAN 1.0>2[1.7]
*UA SFO-TPA NOV 1.0>2[1.0] DEC 1.0>2[1.4] JAN 1.0>2[1.2]


The top destinations traveled to from the San Francisco Bay Area that aren't currently served nonstop out of SFO on UA include BUF, CLT, MEM, MKE, and ORF, and UA could add SFO-BUF, SFO-CLT, SFO-MEM, SFO-MKE, and SFO-ORF nonstop service.
 
huslage
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Re: OAG Changes 3/31/3019:AV Pulls More Routes;DL Drops SLC-ELP;G4 Adds Intl?;UA Bulks Up 2nd Tier SFO Transcons

Mon Apr 01, 2019 5:08 pm

These routes are already 2x daily most of the year. In the case of RDU-SFO it is only adding 1-2 extra flights per week during the period shown. I don't see why any of these additions wouldn't "stick", especially as they all have growing connections in the tech industry with SFO.


These are likely for conference season at the end of the year. They often run extra flights from RDU then.
 
FSDan
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Re: OAG Changes 3/31/3019:AV Pulls More Routes;DL Drops SLC-ELP;G4 Adds Intl?;UA Bulks Up 2nd Tier SFO Transcons

Mon Apr 01, 2019 5:45 pm

enilria wrote:
DL747400 wrote:
B757rocket wrote:
Enilria,
Thank you so very much for your hard work compiling and posting this data every week. It’s beyond appreciated.

It’s due to gate availability with the Southwest relocation from Terminal A to B. Plans were to have all gates and ready by September 1st, it’s now the second half of September. Hence the reduction in the first half of September but it’s full steam ahead from the middle of the month onwards.

Every Sunday, coffee in hand, waiting for your report.


But it makes a better story for the OP to state that there is weakness in DL's BOS buildup. :roll: Stating the facts is only going to frustrate.


Plus, lets inject some data into this, shall we? Delta has the same number of departures more or less in August and October. Why would they have to shrink for just two weeks in September because of WN? Is WN borrowing DL gates for 2 weeks?


Again, BOS-ORD, BOS-DCA, and BOS-EWR are all still loaded in the schedules at their originally announced frequencies, only now they are launching on 9/16 instead of 9/9 (feel free to check the schedules on delta.com yourselves if you don't believe me). These three are new routes starting in September, so it's not like DL is cutting a chunk out of their existing schedule for two weeks like you're making it out to be.

enilria wrote:
tphuang wrote:
or maybe enilria has seen some of the yield I've posted on a.net out of BOS.

On a.net, airlines only drop or reduce routes because of random operational reasons and the planning departments of the fanboys are too dumb to consider economics. Ironic, is it not?


It seems to me like B757rocket's information regarding a facility-related delay is likely dead on. Call it a "random operational reason" if you like, but why would DL just wait an additional week and then proceed as originally planned? That would seem like an odd way to handle weak advance bookings... I'm not disputing the thought that BOS is likely one of DL's weakest major stations from a revenue perspective, but the data just don't indicate any long term reductions at this point.
This is my signature until I think of a better one.
 
tphuang
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Re: OAG Changes 3/31/3019:AV Pulls More Routes;DL Drops SLC-ELP;G4 Adds Intl?;UA Bulks Up 2nd Tier SFO Transcons

Mon Apr 01, 2019 5:59 pm

FSDan wrote:
Again, BOS-ORD, BOS-DCA, and BOS-EWR are all still loaded in the schedules at their originally announced frequencies, only now they are launching on 9/16 instead of 9/9 (feel free to check the schedules on delta.com yourselves if you don't believe me). These three are new routes starting in September, so it's not like DL is cutting a chunk out of their existing schedule for two weeks like you're making it out to be.

It seems to me like B757rocket's information regarding a facility-related delay is likely dead on. Call it a "random operational reason" if you like, but why would DL just wait an additional week and then proceed as originally planned? That would seem like an odd way to handle weak advance bookings... I'm not disputing the thought that BOS is likely one of DL's weakest major stations from a revenue perspective, but the data just don't indicate any long term reductions at this point.


There could be any number of reasons that they are pushing the start date a week later. I'm not going to speculate. But it seems at least to me they have enough gate access, since they run much fewer flights in September/Oct (after first week ) compared to summer season. This past summer, they were doing about 110 flights a day per weekday in July/August but it was under 80 for September. It seems to me a drop of 30+ summer flights create enough space for 15 flights to DCA/EWR/ORD, but what do I know. And I think their announced schedule for those 3 airport is close to the minimum needed for business travellers that they are after, so I don't see any way they start those routes with lower frequency than that.

I don't think we should accuse enilria of bias on something that we don't have conclusive data toward.
 
Redwood839
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Re: OAG Changes 3/31/3019:AV Pulls More Routes;DL Drops SLC-ELP;G4 Adds Intl?;UA Bulks Up 2nd Tier SFO Transcons

Mon Apr 01, 2019 6:05 pm

Runway28L wrote:
enilria wrote:
Are these charters? I don't think G4's reservations system can do intl.
**G4 CUN-PIT MAY 0>0.4[0] JUN 0>0.4[0] JUL 0>0.4[0] AUG 0>0.3[0]
**G4 PIT-PUJ MAY 0>0.3[0] JUN 0>0.3[0] JUL 0>0.3[0] AUG 0>0.2[0]

These are operated for Apple Vacations. I guess G4 is going to sell their own tickets on these flights, although they don’t seem to be available yet on their site.


I miss USA3000.
 
FSDan
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Re: OAG Changes 3/31/3019:AV Pulls More Routes;DL Drops SLC-ELP;G4 Adds Intl?;UA Bulks Up 2nd Tier SFO Transcons

Mon Apr 01, 2019 6:17 pm

tphuang wrote:
FSDan wrote:
Again, BOS-ORD, BOS-DCA, and BOS-EWR are all still loaded in the schedules at their originally announced frequencies, only now they are launching on 9/16 instead of 9/9 (feel free to check the schedules on delta.com yourselves if you don't believe me). These three are new routes starting in September, so it's not like DL is cutting a chunk out of their existing schedule for two weeks like you're making it out to be.

It seems to me like B757rocket's information regarding a facility-related delay is likely dead on. Call it a "random operational reason" if you like, but why would DL just wait an additional week and then proceed as originally planned? That would seem like an odd way to handle weak advance bookings... I'm not disputing the thought that BOS is likely one of DL's weakest major stations from a revenue perspective, but the data just don't indicate any long term reductions at this point.


There could be any number of reasons that they are pushing the start date a week later. I'm not going to speculate. But it seems at least to me they have enough gate access, since they run much fewer flights in September/Oct (after first week ) compared to summer season. This past summer, they were doing about 110 flights a day per weekday in July/August but it was under 80 for September. It seems to me a drop of 30+ summer flights create enough space for 15 flights to DCA/EWR/ORD, but what do I know. And I think their announced schedule for those 3 airport is close to the minimum needed for business travellers that they are after, so I don't see any way they start those routes with lower frequency than that.

I don't think we should accuse enilria of bias on something that we don't have conclusive data toward.


With these new routes, DL will actually be flying slightly more flights in late September than in July/August this year (I count 139 on peak days). It's certainly not 5 gates' worth of additional flying, but it may be more than DL can handle without gaining access to WN's gates, and I'm guessing BOS-ORD, BOS-DCA, BOS-EWR may all need to start at the same time due to shared aircraft routing. Anyway, I'm just saying that in my opinion a delay in access to facilities seems just as likely a reason to push back the start date of these flights as does weak advance bookings and/or financial performance. I'm not trying to accuse enilria so much as I'm trying to point out that B757rocket's information is not as crazy as suggested...
This is my signature until I think of a better one.
 
Aliqiout
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Re: OAG Changes 3/31/3019:AV Pulls More Routes;DL Drops SLC-ELP;G4 Adds Intl?;UA Bulks Up 2nd Tier SFO Transcons

Mon Apr 01, 2019 6:22 pm

NW tried ELP-MSP and canceled it not long before the merger.
 
tphuang
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Re: OAG Changes 3/31/3019:AV Pulls More Routes;DL Drops SLC-ELP;G4 Adds Intl?;UA Bulks Up 2nd Tier SFO Transcons

Mon Apr 01, 2019 6:27 pm

FSDan wrote:
tphuang wrote:
FSDan wrote:
Again, BOS-ORD, BOS-DCA, and BOS-EWR are all still loaded in the schedules at their originally announced frequencies, only now they are launching on 9/16 instead of 9/9 (feel free to check the schedules on delta.com yourselves if you don't believe me). These three are new routes starting in September, so it's not like DL is cutting a chunk out of their existing schedule for two weeks like you're making it out to be.

It seems to me like B757rocket's information regarding a facility-related delay is likely dead on. Call it a "random operational reason" if you like, but why would DL just wait an additional week and then proceed as originally planned? That would seem like an odd way to handle weak advance bookings... I'm not disputing the thought that BOS is likely one of DL's weakest major stations from a revenue perspective, but the data just don't indicate any long term reductions at this point.


There could be any number of reasons that they are pushing the start date a week later. I'm not going to speculate. But it seems at least to me they have enough gate access, since they run much fewer flights in September/Oct (after first week ) compared to summer season. This past summer, they were doing about 110 flights a day per weekday in July/August but it was under 80 for September. It seems to me a drop of 30+ summer flights create enough space for 15 flights to DCA/EWR/ORD, but what do I know. And I think their announced schedule for those 3 airport is close to the minimum needed for business travellers that they are after, so I don't see any way they start those routes with lower frequency than that.

I don't think we should accuse enilria of bias on something that we don't have conclusive data toward.


With these new routes, DL will actually be flying slightly more flights in late September than in July/August this year (I count 139 on peak days). It's certainly not 5 gates' worth of additional flying, but it may be more than DL can handle without gaining access to WN's gates, and I'm guessing BOS-ORD, BOS-DCA, BOS-EWR may all need to start at the same time due to shared aircraft routing. Anyway, I'm just saying that in my opinion a delay in access to facilities seems just as likely a reason to push back the start date of these flights as does weak advance bookings and/or financial performance. I'm not trying to accuse enilria so much as I'm trying to point out that B757rocket's information is not as crazy as suggested...

interesting enough, I did a check just now on google flights. Looks like now the first flights have moved to Sep 30th.
 
Supersarestupid
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Joined: Mon Mar 25, 2019 2:28 am

Re: OAG Changes 3/31/3019:AV Pulls More Routes;DL Drops SLC-ELP;G4 Adds Intl?;UA Bulks Up 2nd Tier SFO Transcons

Mon Apr 01, 2019 6:29 pm

FSDan wrote:

Again, BOS-ORD, BOS-DCA, and BOS-EWR are all still loaded in the schedules at their originally announced frequencies, only now they are launching on 9/16 instead of 9/9 (feel free to check the schedules on delta.com yourselves if you don't believe me). These three are new routes starting in September, so it's not like DL is cutting a chunk out of their existing schedule for two weeks like you're making it out to be.


It looks like 9/30 is now the earliest BOS-ORD available for purchase. I have been planning to purchase one for mid September but noticed it went away. Terminal movement issues makes sense to me, but was looking forward to the non stop and avoiding AA. Maybe I'll do UA, or maybe I'll take some extra PQM with a DL connection in NYC.
 
Aliqiout
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Re: OAG Changes 3/31/3019:AV Pulls More Routes;DL Drops SLC-ELP;G4 Adds Intl?;UA Bulks Up 2nd Tier SFO Transcons

Mon Apr 01, 2019 6:40 pm

FATFlyer wrote:
AVLAirlineFreq wrote:
ELP is the farthest west DL spoke not to have a connection to another DL hub, right? Certainly the largest market, too?

As another poster noted, DL has been off and on the ELP-SLC route for years. It didn't last long at all this time.

Unless you are referring to cities that DL currently connects to ATL then ELP is not correct.

Fresno MSA is larger than El Paso MSA and further west. Using the 2017 census estimates: Fresno MSA is 989,255, El Paso MSA is 844,818.

Fresno currently only has 3X CRJ/CR7s to SLC on DL, no other DL hub flights.

Thru the late 1990s, DL had a large schedule at FAT. There was mainline service to SLC, LAX and RNO plus connection flights to BUR and others. That was all discontinued leaving only FAT-SLC.


MSA and market size are not the same thing. MSA is a particularly bad metric for ELP, becasue the EL Paso MSA is bound by the New Mexico and Mexico borders. Las Cruces, is it's own MSA with a population of over 200,000, is served only by ELP. ELP also benefits from almost all the non-Mexican business traffic from CJS (population 1.3 million), which is substantial. Additionally it is a much longer drive to any other population center from ELP than it is from FAT.

I just checked one month (January), but the passenger traffic at ELP is almost double FAT's
 
alasizon
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Re: OAG Changes 3/31/3019:AV Pulls More Routes;DL Drops SLC-ELP;G4 Adds Intl?;UA Bulks Up 2nd Tier SFO Transcons

Mon Apr 01, 2019 6:43 pm

MrPeanut wrote:
El Paso is a tough market unless you are American, Southwest, or United. They own 90% of the market share and fly non-stop to the vast majority of the desired destinations of the local population. I will be surprised if Alaska’s new Seattle and San Diego service lasts more than a year.


SEA & SAN both have pretty good demand (particularly military demand) that was already being served through connections so they should easily succeed.

maps4ltd wrote:
I wonder if DL could jump on LAX-ELP. Then again, unlike AA or UA, it doesn't appear to be very invested in LAX these days.


What would the point be? If they couldn't compete with SLC at 1x in a market all their own; why jump into the fray on LAX-ELP which would take at least 2-3x to be competitive.
Manager on Duty & Tower Planner
 
FSDan
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Re: OAG Changes 3/31/3019:AV Pulls More Routes;DL Drops SLC-ELP;G4 Adds Intl?;UA Bulks Up 2nd Tier SFO Transcons

Mon Apr 01, 2019 6:49 pm

tphuang wrote:
FSDan wrote:
With these new routes, DL will actually be flying slightly more flights in late September than in July/August this year (I count 139 on peak days). It's certainly not 5 gates' worth of additional flying, but it may be more than DL can handle without gaining access to WN's gates, and I'm guessing BOS-ORD, BOS-DCA, BOS-EWR may all need to start at the same time due to shared aircraft routing. Anyway, I'm just saying that in my opinion a delay in access to facilities seems just as likely a reason to push back the start date of these flights as does weak advance bookings and/or financial performance. I'm not trying to accuse enilria so much as I'm trying to point out that B757rocket's information is not as crazy as suggested...

interesting enough, I did a check just now on google flights. Looks like now the first flights have moved to Sep 30th.


Supersarestupid wrote:

It looks like 9/30 is now the earliest BOS-ORD available for purchase. I have been planning to purchase one for mid September but noticed it went away. Terminal movement issues makes sense to me, but was looking forward to the non stop and avoiding AA. Maybe I'll do UA, or maybe I'll take some extra PQM with a DL connection in NYC.


Interesting. The flights are still listed on delta.com on 9/16, but all the inventory shows "Sold Out". The flights don't even show up at all on the original 9/9 date.
This is my signature until I think of a better one.
 
Aliqiout
Posts: 281
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Re: OAG Changes 3/31/3019:AV Pulls More Routes;DL Drops SLC-ELP;G4 Adds Intl?;UA Bulks Up 2nd Tier SFO Transcons

Mon Apr 01, 2019 7:00 pm

AirFiero wrote:
red66mustang wrote:
phxa340 wrote:
Did AS fire all their route planners? They have filed barely anything over the last 2ish months I feel like. It’s a little concerning to see them on auto pilot, especially as they battle DL in Seattle, UA in SFO and everyone at LAX.


Their VP of Network Planning was cut with the management layoffs in late 2018 so I have to wonder if that might have anything to do with it. Additionally, haven’t they told Wall Street that their growth is pretty low this year? Under 2%? With little growth planned that would lend itself to very little new route news.


That, and any ideas they might have had might be put on hold until the Max 8 thing is resolved. How many Max’s does AS have, out of what size 737 fleet?

AS has no Max 8s. They have an order for MAX 9s but none have been delivered yet.
 
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enilria
Topic Author
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Re: OAG Changes 3/31/3019:AV Pulls More Routes;DL Drops SLC-ELP;G4 Adds Intl?;UA Bulks Up 2nd Tier SFO Transcons

Mon Apr 01, 2019 7:08 pm

FSDan wrote:
enilria wrote:
tphuang wrote:
or maybe enilria has seen some of the yield I've posted on a.net out of BOS.

On a.net, airlines only drop or reduce routes because of random operational reasons and the planning departments of the fanboys are too dumb to consider economics. Ironic, is it not?


It seems to me like B757rocket's information regarding a facility-related delay is likely dead on. Call it a "random operational reason" if you like, but why would DL just wait an additional week and then proceed as originally planned? That would seem like an odd way to handle weak advance bookings... I'm not disputing the thought that BOS is likely one of DL's weakest major stations from a revenue perspective, but the data just don't indicate any long term reductions at this point.

Even if that is all correct, they still had to decide what to drop, and I promise you DL Planning is smart enough to drop the poorest performers.
 
FSDan
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Re: OAG Changes 3/31/3019:AV Pulls More Routes;DL Drops SLC-ELP;G4 Adds Intl?;UA Bulks Up 2nd Tier SFO Transcons

Mon Apr 01, 2019 7:17 pm

enilria wrote:
FSDan wrote:
enilria wrote:

On a.net, airlines only drop or reduce routes because of random operational reasons and the planning departments of the fanboys are too dumb to consider economics. Ironic, is it not?


It seems to me like B757rocket's information regarding a facility-related delay is likely dead on. Call it a "random operational reason" if you like, but why would DL just wait an additional week and then proceed as originally planned? That would seem like an odd way to handle weak advance bookings... I'm not disputing the thought that BOS is likely one of DL's weakest major stations from a revenue perspective, but the data just don't indicate any long term reductions at this point.

Even if that is all correct, they still had to decide what to drop, and I promise you DL Planning is smart enough to drop the poorest performers.


DL announced these three new markets to coincide with gaining access to more of Terminal A (hence why they're starting in September and not in a busier month such as June). If access to said facilities has slipped, it makes sense to delay the routes that haven't started yet rather than to cut into routes that are already established in order to launch additional routes.

Note: these three new routes could very well be DL's worst performers at BOS given that they are brand new and all in competitive markets. Nonetheless, they are of strategic importance to DL, and if access to facilities had not changed, I don't think you'd see DL touching them. Basically, I see the fact that these routes may be low performers as coincidental to the delayed start rather than as causative.
This is my signature until I think of a better one.
 
jplatts
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Re: OAG Changes 3/31/3019:AV Pulls More Routes;DL Drops SLC-ELP;G4 Adds Intl?;UA Bulks Up 2nd Tier SFO Transcons

Mon Apr 01, 2019 7:46 pm

maps4ltd wrote:
I wonder if DL could jump on LAX-ELP. Then again, unlike AA or UA, it doesn't appear to be very invested in LAX these days.


There are actually many destinations that DL serves nonstop from LAX that UA doesn't currently serve nonstop from LAX such as ABQ, AMS, ATL, CVG, CMH, DFW, DTW, IND, MCI, MEM, MSP, BNA, CDG, PDX, RDU, GEG, TPA, and TUS.

There are also many destinations that UA serves nonstop from LAX that DL doesn't currently serve nonstop from LAX such as ORD, CLE, COS, EGE, EUG, ACV, FAT, HDN, ITO, IAH, LHR, MSN, MMH, MFR, MEL, MRY, MTJ, PSP, PSC, PRC, RDD, RDM, RNO, SBP, SBA, SGU, and YVR.

One difference between DL and UA at LAX is that most of the domestic destinations currently served nonstop from LAX on UA but not by DL are smaller regional destinations in the Western U.S. whereas most of the domestic destinations currently served nonstop from LAX on DL but not by UA are in larger markets in the Southwest, the Midwest, and the Southeast.

UA had also recently dropped LAX-DFW nonstop service, but LAX is still served nonstop from Dallas on AS, AA, DL, WN, and NK.

I am leaning towards DL adding ELP-LAX nonstop service since (a) DL has more market share at LAX than UA does, (b) DL would be able to offer 1-stop connections to Asia, Australia, and Mexico from ELP through LAX if DL adds ELP-LAX nonstop service, and (c) DL has nonstop service from LAX to some of the larger markets that UA doesn't currently serve nonstop from LAX.

DL could also add ELP-MSP and ELP-DTW nonstop service in order to provide easier connectivity to the Midwest, the Northeast, Canada, Asia, and Europe.
 
FlyingElvii
Posts: 334
Joined: Wed Dec 27, 2017 10:53 pm

Re: OAG Changes 3/31/3019:AV Pulls More Routes;DL Drops SLC-ELP;G4 Adds Intl?;UA Bulks Up 2nd Tier SFO Transcons

Mon Apr 01, 2019 8:07 pm

Cubsrule wrote:
Antoli0794 wrote:
pbodyphoto wrote:

If they can't make SLC-ELP work there is no way MSP-ELP would make any sense. I can't imagine there is any market for El Paso to Canada or the upper Midwest. MSP is too far north for any other logical connections.



MSP-ELP was tried before in 2005 but with a CRJ200. Not the right aircraft at that time. SLC is too small compared to hubs like DEN PHX LAX in the west competing for connections. In the Midwest it’s just ORD. CRJ700 should be an ok attempt if DL is interested in in expanding in ELP. SLC is a fair try.


I also recall the mid-00s CRJ flight. IINM it was the longest CRJ flight in the world at the time, and yes, it was the wrong airplane. Unfortunately for ELP, I think it was more a case of to many CRJs and not enough viable routes than a case of the route having potential.

I cannot imagine how restricted a CRJ would be in the summer heat, on that run.
 
Cubsrule
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Re: OAG Changes 3/31/3019:AV Pulls More Routes;DL Drops SLC-ELP;G4 Adds Intl?;UA Bulks Up 2nd Tier SFO Transcons

Mon Apr 01, 2019 9:19 pm

FlyingElvii wrote:
Cubsrule wrote:
Antoli0794 wrote:


MSP-ELP was tried before in 2005 but with a CRJ200. Not the right aircraft at that time. SLC is too small compared to hubs like DEN PHX LAX in the west competing for connections. In the Midwest it’s just ORD. CRJ700 should be an ok attempt if DL is interested in in expanding in ELP. SLC is a fair try.


I also recall the mid-00s CRJ flight. IINM it was the longest CRJ flight in the world at the time, and yes, it was the wrong airplane. Unfortunately for ELP, I think it was more a case of to many CRJs and not enough viable routes than a case of the route having potential.

I cannot imagine how restricted a CRJ would be in the summer heat, on that run.


That may have been on the 44-seat CRJs, which would have helped some (maybe not enough).
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
 
wxtech
Posts: 37
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Re: OAG Changes 3/31/3019:AV Pulls More Routes;DL Drops SLC-ELP;G4 Adds Intl?;UA Bulks Up 2nd Tier SFO Transcons

Mon Apr 01, 2019 11:27 pm

Having lived in ELP for nearly 20 years and not a native I can tell you ELP is unique in terms of buying tickets. Could be airline, sports, or concerts...the first tickets to sell out are the cheapest ones. Last minute walk up only have premium tickets left. Never lived anywhere else that was like that. The ELP airport team did an incredible job getting these new flights, problem is that I dont think the market is really there for more than what they had in the recent past after the Wright amendment flights ended.
 
steeler83
Posts: 7609
Joined: Sat Feb 25, 2006 2:06 pm

Re: OAG Changes 3/31/3019:AV Pulls More Routes;DL Drops SLC-ELP;G4 Adds Intl?;UA Bulks Up 2nd Tier SFO Transcons

Tue Apr 02, 2019 1:12 am

Anyone following the "Airliners from the past" group in Facebook, I had my wife snap a picture of the WW plane at EWR. What a sad site to see. :(
Do not bring stranger girt into your room. The stranger girt is dangerous, it will hurt your life.
 
Rememberthe80
Posts: 1
Joined: Mon Apr 01, 2019 4:14 pm

Re: OAG Changes 3/31/3019:AV Pulls More Routes;DL Drops SLC-ELP;G4 Adds Intl?;UA Bulks Up 2nd Tier SFO Transcons

Tue Apr 02, 2019 4:15 am

Allegiant will not be opening up scheduled flag flying anytime soon. The best you will see from G4 outside of the 50 states and territories are additional charter opportunities. Allegiant's in house RES system can not accommodate scheduled flag flights.
 
Dominion301
Posts: 2144
Joined: Wed Jul 20, 2016 1:48 pm

Re: OAG Changes 3/31/3019:AV Pulls More Routes;DL Drops SLC-ELP;G4 Adds Intl?;UA Bulks Up 2nd Tier SFO Transcons

Tue Apr 02, 2019 1:40 pm

Here AC's update to explain all the changes for May due to the MAX groundings: https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/a ... 20121.html

Working with our Partner Airlines

The carrier has worked with other carriers to provide immediate extra capacity and provide alternative options to passengers. For example, its Montreal-Frankfurt flight for the month of May will be operated by Star Alliance partner Lufthansa.

Schedule Changes until June 30

The airline has implemented a number of route changes to date, either changing operating times or substituting larger aircraft with fewer frequencies on routes operated more frequently by smaller aircraft. For example, beginning in May two daily flights between Toronto and Calgary have been consolidated onto one larger Airbus A330, leaving nine daily flights.

In some cases, seasonal route launches have been delayed. This includes: Toronto-Portland, which will now start July 1 instead of May 24; Vancouver-Boston, which will now start June 16 instead of June 1; and Calgary-Halifax, which will now start July 1 instead of May 18. The seasonal start of the carrier's Toronto-Shannon route and new Montreal-Bordeaux service will both be delayed until early July.

In addition, selected frequencies on domestic routes such as Toronto-Edmonton, will be served by Air Canada Rouge aircraft.

Route Suspensions

In a small number of cases, Air Canada has temporarily suspended service on certain 737 MAX routes where alternative aircraft are not presently available. This includes flights from Halifax and St. John's to London Heathrow, for which it is re-accommodating customers over its Toronto and Montreal hubs. These routes are now suspended to May 31, but Air Canada remains committed to these routes.
 
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enilria
Topic Author
Posts: 9493
Joined: Fri Feb 22, 2008 7:15 pm

Re: OAG Changes 3/31/3019:AV Pulls More Routes;DL Drops SLC-ELP;G4 Adds Intl?;UA Bulks Up 2nd Tier SFO Transcons

Tue Apr 02, 2019 4:03 pm

Rememberthe80 wrote:
Allegiant will not be opening up scheduled flag flying anytime soon. The best you will see from G4 outside of the 50 states and territories are additional charter opportunities. Allegiant's in house RES system can not accommodate scheduled flag flights.

That's what I thought so either they filed it as a mistake, or they will now file charters with zero inventory like UA does with charters.
 
Dominion301
Posts: 2144
Joined: Wed Jul 20, 2016 1:48 pm

Re: OAG Changes 3/31/3019:AV Pulls More Routes;DL Drops SLC-ELP;G4 Adds Intl?;UA Bulks Up 2nd Tier SFO Transcons

Tue Apr 02, 2019 6:24 pm

enilria wrote:
Rememberthe80 wrote:
Allegiant will not be opening up scheduled flag flying anytime soon. The best you will see from G4 outside of the 50 states and territories are additional charter opportunities. Allegiant's in house RES system can not accommodate scheduled flag flights.

That's what I thought so either they filed it as a mistake, or they will now file charters with zero inventory like UA does with charters.


So I guess it's safe to say these are Apple Charters? Do G4 do any other Apple flying?
 
florens
Posts: 108
Joined: Mon Aug 27, 2007 3:15 pm

Re: OAG Changes 3/31/3019:AV Pulls More Routes;DL Drops SLC-ELP;G4 Adds Intl?;UA Bulks Up 2nd Tier SFO Transcons

Sun Apr 07, 2019 11:48 am

AA seems to be adding Airbus A319 and A321 operations to SFO-LAX but reducing frequencies.
Kind regards, Florens

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