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enilria
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WN Intl LFs for Oct 2017 to Sep 2018

Tue Apr 02, 2019 1:17 pm

Confucius says, "a plane with high load factors may not make money, but a plane with low load factors is a dumpster fire."

Relatively few are low load factor.
Source: https://www.transtats.bts.gov/Tables.asp?DB_ID=111

Sorted worst to first.
I'd say this group is pretty bad, surprisingly so. Some are already gone.
FLL-CUN OCT 74 NOV 40 DEC 37 JAN 39 FEB 42 MAR 56 APR 50 MAY 48 JUN 61 JUL 63 AUG 59 SEP 34
LAX-SJD OCT 51 NOV 55 DEC 49 JAN 42 FEB 44 MAR 57 APR 57 MAY 55 JUN 80 JUL 85 AUG 79 SEP 62
SAN-PVR MAR 69 APR 69 MAY 63 JUN 82 JUL 72 AUG 56 SEP 39
HOU-MEX OCT 50 NOV 59 DEC 76 JAN 67 FEB 54 MAR 67 APR 56 MAY 59 JUN 70 JUL 93 AUG 77 SEP 57
CMH-CUN APR 56 MAY 58 JUN 76 JUL 72
SJC-SJD MAR 68 APR 65 MAY 57 JUN 89 JUL 89 AUG 60 SEP 41
FLL-PLS NOV 37 DEC 49 JAN 44 FEB 52 MAR 65 APR 69 MAY 82 JUN 89 JUL 94 AUG 92 SEP 84
RDU-CUN JUN 79 JUL 57
MSY-CUN APR 48 MAY 75 JUN 80 JUL 75
FLL-BZE OCT 47 NOV 59 DEC 69 JAN 69 FEB 70 MAR 86 APR 68 MAY 74 JUN 87 JUL 92 AUG 91 SEP 79
OAK-SJD OCT 71 NOV 75 DEC 71 JAN 63 FEB 69 MAR 73 APR 77 MAY 70 JUN 87 JUL 87 AUG 72 SEP 62
FLL-HAV OCT 58 NOV 72 DEC 70 JAN 73 FEB 65 MAR 79 APR 79 MAY 78 JUN 83 JUL 91 AUG 80 SEP 65

IND-CUN MAR 87 APR 65 MAY 62 JUN 81 JUL 77
FLL-GCM OCT 63 NOV 75 DEC 72 JAN 70 FEB 70 MAR 75 APR 74 MAY 80 JUN 87 JUL 91 AUG 84 SEP 65
FLL-PUJ NOV 58 DEC 63 JAN 53 FEB 60 MAR 81 APR 84 MAY 90 JUN 91 JUL 90 AUG 91 SEP 75
LAX-PVR OCT 80 NOV 77 DEC 75 JAN 72 FEB 68 MAR 70 APR 77 MAY 76 JUN 90 JUL 89 AUG 87 SEP 73
TPA-HAV OCT 60 NOV 73 DEC 74 JAN 70 FEB 68 MAR 84 APR 80 MAY 85 JUN 91 JUL 88 AUG 83 SEP 79
SNA-SJD OCT 73 NOV 77 DEC 69 JAN 67 FEB 69 MAR 79 APR 81 MAY 76 JUN 91 JUL 91 AUG 88 SEP 68
AUS-CUN NOV 76 DEC 79 JAN 71 FEB 74 MAR 77 APR 79 MAY 78 JUN 86 JUL 93 AUG 85
LAX-CUN OCT 72 NOV 81 DEC 82 JAN 72 FEB 70 MAR 82 APR 85 MAY 82 JUN 90 JUL 92 AUG 89 SEP 75
SAN-SJD OCT 74 NOV 82 DEC 75 JAN 76 FEB 77 MAR 87 APR 85 MAY 85 JUN 90 JUL 90 AUG 82 SEP 74
SMF-SJD MAR 85 APR 88 MAY 84 JUN 92 JUL 89 AUG 69 SEP 64
PIT-CUN JUN 74 JUL 89
HOU-BZE OCT 63 NOV 78 DEC 80 JAN 77 FEB 77 MAR 88 APR 85 MAY 89 JUN 93 JUL 91 AUG 90 SEP 72
HOU-PVR OCT 80 NOV 81 DEC 82 JAN 83 FEB 81 MAR 82 APR 80 MAY 84 JUN 87 JUL 88 AUG 84 SEP 70
BNA-CUN NOV 62 DEC 73 JAN 75 FEB 90 MAR 89 APR 85 MAY 78 JUN 94 JUL 90
OAK-PVR OCT 80 NOV 82 DEC 82 JAN 82 FEB 81 MAR 82 APR 84 MAY 78 JUN 91 JUL 87 AUG 83 SEP 80
ATL-CUN OCT 82 NOV 81 DEC 83 JAN 77 FEB 80 MAR 88 APR 84 MAY 79 JUN 88 JUL 88 AUG 84 SEP 76
FLL-MBJ OCT 90 NOV 81 DEC 82 JAN 78 FEB 69 MAR 79 APR 85 MAY 84 JUN 92 JUL 94 AUG 92 SEP 78
SAT-CUN NOV 79 DEC 70 MAR 56 APR 64 MAY 74 JUN 87 JUL 91 AUG 78
FLL-NAS OCT 74 NOV 82 DEC 86 JAN 81 FEB 87 MAR 89 APR 77 MAY 83 JUN 93 JUL 94 AUG 94 SEP 64
HOU-CUN OCT 83 NOV 83 DEC 83 JAN 77 FEB 81 MAR 86 APR 86 MAY 88 JUN 90 JUL 95 AUG 89 SEP 77
BWI-CUN OCT 81 NOV 82 DEC 84 JAN 85 FEB 88 MAR 92 APR 85 MAY 81 JUN 83 JUL 88 AUG 92 SEP 80
MDW-CUN OCT 87 NOV 83 DEC 83 JAN 90 FEB 89 MAR 89 APR 83 MAY 80 JUN 84 JUL 89 AUG 91 SEP 84
DEN-CUN OCT 85 NOV 80 DEC 82 JAN 84 FEB 89 MAR 88 APR 89 MAY 84 JUN 89 JUL 90 AUG 88 SEP 82
HOU-SJD OCT 80 NOV 79 DEC 80 JAN 83 FEB 80 MAR 86 APR 86 MAY 88 JUN 89 JUL 93 AUG 90 SEP 87
HOU-SJO OCT 62 NOV 80 DEC 91 JAN 94 FEB 90 MAR 93 APR 87 MAY 86 JUN 91 JUL 94 AUG 87 SEP 74
ATL-PUJ OCT 88 NOV 78 DEC 80 JAN 74 FEB 78 MAR 87 APR 91 MAY 95 JUN 94 JUL 91 AUG 89 SEP 82
DEN-PVR OCT 95 NOV 85 DEC 83 JAN 89 FEB 87 MAR 87 APR 87 MAY 89 JUN 86 JUL 83 AUG 80 SEP 80
MDW-PUJ OCT 89 NOV 77 DEC 84 JAN 77 FEB 80 MAR 93 APR 92 MAY 96 JUN 87 JUL 87 AUG 87 SEP 86
STL-CUN NOV 81 DEC 86 JAN 89 FEB 93 MAR 87 APR 79 MAY 85 JUN 92 JUL 95 AUG 89 SEP 80
FLL-SJO NOV 80 DEC 90 JAN 92 FEB 88 MAR 89 APR 84 MAY 87 JUN 92 JUL 93 AUG 86 SEP 77
DEN-SJD OCT 92 NOV 84 DEC 79 JAN 86 FEB 90 MAR 92 APR 87 MAY 89 JUN 88 JUL 87 AUG 85 SEP 94
BWI-LIR NOV 86 DEC 92 JAN 84 FEB 81 MAR 89 APR 85 JUN 86 JUL 91
MCO-AUA OCT 92 NOV 90 DEC 88 JAN 83 FEB 86 MAR 84
HOU-AUA NOV 87 DEC 83 JUN 92 JUL 91
HOU-MBJ OCT 91 NOV 91 DEC 87 JAN 81 FEB 78 MAR 86 APR 86 MAY 89 JUN 90 JUL 94 AUG 92 SEP 88
MDW-MBJ OCT 94 NOV 86 DEC 86 JAN 85 FEB 83 MAR 84 APR 88 MAY 94 JUN 88 JUL 93 AUG 94 SEP 88
HOU-LIR OCT 72 NOV 83 DEC 87 JAN 94 FEB 92 MAR 91 APR 89 MAY 91 JUN 93 JUL 95 AUG 89 SEP 81
FLL-AUA MAR 88 APR 91 MAY 90 JUN 91 JUL 87 AUG 90 SEP 88
MCO-MBJ OCT 80 NOV 90 DEC 88 JAN 88 FEB 84 MAR 87 APR 91 MAY 91 JUN 95 JUL 96 AUG 95 SEP 84
BWI-AUA OCT 97 NOV 85 DEC 90 JAN 88 FEB 94 MAR 90 APR 94 MAY 94 JUN 90 JUL 88 AUG 93 SEP 92
BWI-PUJ OCT 88 NOV 87 DEC 88 JAN 88 FEB 93 MAR 94 APR 92 MAY 95 JUN 90 JUL 92 AUG 93 SEP 85
BWI-MBJ OCT 94 NOV 88 DEC 91 JAN 90 FEB 89 MAR 91 APR 91 MAY 91 JUN 90 JUL 93 AUG 95 SEP 90
DEN-BZE NOV 88 DEC 95 JAN 89 FEB 91 MAR 94 APR 90 MAY 92 JUN 90 JUL 91
BWI-NAS OCT 90 NOV 85 DEC 88 JAN 92 FEB 94 MAR 95 APR 96 MAY 97 JUN 97 JUL 98 AUG 98 SEP 83
BWI-SJD MAR 95 JUN 90 JUL 92
AUS-SJD JUN 93 JUL 92
BWI-SJO NOV 88 DEC 95 JAN 97 FEB 92 MAR 96 APR 93 MAY 95 JUN 95 JUL 96
HOU-GCM JUN 96 JUL 95
 
LightChop2Chop
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Re: WN Intl LFs for Oct 2017 to Sep 2018

Tue Apr 02, 2019 2:14 pm

one must remember that late 2017 was startup phase on many of the FLL routes....they will need some time to mature. also the numbers don't differentiate between daily and less than daily. For example I think HOU AUS is sat only. ...if one is pooling potential pax into a 1Xweek, LFS might naturally be higher.
 
jbmitt
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Re: WN Intl LFs for Oct 2017 to Sep 2018

Tue Apr 02, 2019 2:27 pm

We flew MCO to AUA in Aug of 2015 with literally 15 people on the plane. Glad to see that the load factors have improved. The flight attendants liked it because it wasn’t busy, and a high time out and back, so it went pretty senior. The conversation was good and the drinks were free!
 
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enilria
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Re: WN Intl LFs for Oct 2017 to Sep 2018

Tue Apr 02, 2019 2:49 pm

enilria wrote:
FLL-CUN OCT 74 NOV 40 DEC 37 JAN 39 FEB 42 MAR 56 APR 50 MAY 48 JUN 61 JUL 63 AUG 59 SEP 34

I don't see how this is so poor. I haven't looked at the schedule. Perhaps it has goofy times? Plus it should have connectivity in FLL. Weird.
 
Jshank83
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Re: WN Intl LFs for Oct 2017 to Sep 2018

Tue Apr 02, 2019 3:25 pm

enilria wrote:
enilria wrote:
FLL-CUN OCT 74 NOV 40 DEC 37 JAN 39 FEB 42 MAR 56 APR 50 MAY 48 JUN 61 JUL 63 AUG 59 SEP 34

I don't see how this is so poor. I haven't looked at the schedule. Perhaps it has goofy times? Plus it should have connectivity in FLL. Weird.


One issue in my mind with FLL is there isn't enough feed to FLL from the states. They have all these INTL flights but not all the a many flights overall to feed them. It peaks at 108 flight and isn't one of the top 10 (or maybe even 15) WN stations and if you strip out the intl flights then it goes down even more. They really need to get it up in the 150+ range like HOU/MDW/BWI/etc to make it a hub for all the intl flights.
 
tphuang
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Re: WN Intl LFs for Oct 2017 to Sep 2018

Tue Apr 02, 2019 3:34 pm

Jshank83 wrote:
enilria wrote:
enilria wrote:
FLL-CUN OCT 74 NOV 40 DEC 37 JAN 39 FEB 42 MAR 56 APR 50 MAY 48 JUN 61 JUL 63 AUG 59 SEP 34

I don't see how this is so poor. I haven't looked at the schedule. Perhaps it has goofy times? Plus it should have connectivity in FLL. Weird.


One issue in my mind with FLL is there isn't enough feed to FLL from the states. They have all these INTL flights but not all the a many flights overall to feed them. It peaks at 108 flight and isn't one of the top 10 (or maybe even 15) WN stations and if you strip out the intl flights then it goes down even more. They really need to get it up in the 150+ range like HOU/MDW/BWI/etc to make it a hub for all the intl flights.


They don't have enough feed, because they can't make it work from the biggest markets out of FLL, which is the area around NYC and rest of Northeast. So their most recent strategy has been cutting EWR/IAD where they struggle and a bunch of secondary airports in the region and push everyone through BWI. And they also struggle on the international stuff that requires a lot of oversea point of sale. FLL imo was just not the right station to pick.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: WN Intl LFs for Oct 2017 to Sep 2018

Tue Apr 02, 2019 4:38 pm

enilria wrote:
enilria wrote:
FLL-CUN OCT 74 NOV 40 DEC 37 JAN 39 FEB 42 MAR 56 APR 50 MAY 48 JUN 61 JUL 63 AUG 59 SEP 34

I don't see how this is so poor. I haven't looked at the schedule. Perhaps it has goofy times? Plus it should have connectivity in FLL. Weird.


You point out FLL-CUN. I also noticed LAX-SJD in the 'poor' batch. These are in big markets to popular destinations. I don't see how one rationalizes how these specific routes are doing so poorly. Demand on a LCC with free bags and no change fees on these airport pairs ought to be very elastic.
 
usflyguy
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Re: WN Intl LFs for Oct 2017 to Sep 2018

Tue Apr 02, 2019 4:39 pm

enilria wrote:
enilria wrote:
FLL-CUN OCT 74 NOV 40 DEC 37 JAN 39 FEB 42 MAR 56 APR 50 MAY 48 JUN 61 JUL 63 AUG 59 SEP 34

I don't see how this is so poor. I haven't looked at the schedule. Perhaps it has goofy times? Plus it should have connectivity in FLL. Weird.


It was running 3 daily with weird timings (early am, midday, and late pm), it is now 2x daily with FLL departures at 9:50am and 12:40 pm and return arrivals at 2:50pm and 6:45pm.
My post is my ideas and my opinions only, I do not represent the ideas or opinions of anyone else or company.
 
jplatts
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Re: WN Intl LFs for Oct 2017 to Sep 2018

Tue Apr 02, 2019 5:14 pm

tphuang wrote:
Jshank83 wrote:
enilria wrote:
I don't see how this is so poor. I haven't looked at the schedule. Perhaps it has goofy times? Plus it should have connectivity in FLL. Weird.


One issue in my mind with FLL is there isn't enough feed to FLL from the states. They have all these INTL flights but not all the a many flights overall to feed them. It peaks at 108 flight and isn't one of the top 10 (or maybe even 15) WN stations and if you strip out the intl flights then it goes down even more. They really need to get it up in the 150+ range like HOU/MDW/BWI/etc to make it a hub for all the intl flights.


They don't have enough feed, because they can't make it work from the biggest markets out of FLL, which is the area around NYC and rest of Northeast. So their most recent strategy has been cutting EWR/IAD where they struggle and a bunch of secondary airports in the region and push everyone through BWI. And they also struggle on the international stuff that requires a lot of oversea point of sale. FLL imo was just not the right station to pick.


MIflyer12 wrote:
You point out FLL-CUN. I also noticed LAX-SJD in the 'poor' batch. These are in big markets to popular destinations. I don't see how one rationalizes how these specific routes are doing so poorly. Demand on a LCC with free bags and no change fees on these airport pairs ought to be very elastic.


MKE currently lacks year-round nonstop service to FLL or MIA, but WN does operate seasonal daily nonstop service to FLL from MKE.

There are also some WN stations such as BHM, GRR, SDF, MHT, MEM, ORF, OAK, ROC, SMF, SAN, and SJC that have daily nonstop service to MCO but not to FLL on WN. WN also has more nonstop service to MCO from many of the stations that have nonstop service to both MCO and FLL on WN.

WN could add MCO-CUN nonstop service, and WN can probably make MCO-CUN nonstop service work since (a) MCO is a larger WN station than FLL is, (b) WN has nonstop service to MCO from some domestic destinations that WN doesn't serve nonstop from FLL, and (c) WN would have more connecting feed on MCO-CUN than it does on FLL-CUN.
 
czek6
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Re: WN Intl LFs for Oct 2017 to Sep 2018

Tue Apr 02, 2019 5:23 pm

Those BWI numbers looked really decent, but I wonder how the CUN and MBJ loads are doing now that Spirit has launched those routes from BWI too.
 
jbs2886
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Re: WN Intl LFs for Oct 2017 to Sep 2018

Tue Apr 02, 2019 5:31 pm

A lot of those "poor" LF routes are 1x weekly or so - the cost of operating those on low business travel days is very cheap. The aircraft would probably be sitting anyways (i.e., sunk costs). Sure, there are some crew costs, fuel, etc. but the routes can operate at lower (likely substantially lower) LFs and still be marginally profitable.

Either way, you may see some adjustments to make routes seasonal, etc. as WN learns the int'l market.
 
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enilria
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Re: WN Intl LFs for Oct 2017 to Sep 2018

Tue Apr 02, 2019 6:03 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
enilria wrote:
enilria wrote:
FLL-CUN OCT 74 NOV 40 DEC 37 JAN 39 FEB 42 MAR 56 APR 50 MAY 48 JUN 61 JUL 63 AUG 59 SEP 34

I don't see how this is so poor. I haven't looked at the schedule. Perhaps it has goofy times? Plus it should have connectivity in FLL. Weird.


You point out FLL-CUN. I also noticed LAX-SJD in the 'poor' batch. These are in big markets to popular destinations. I don't see how one rationalizes how these specific routes are doing so poorly. Demand on a LCC with free bags and no change fees on these airport pairs ought to be very elastic.

I think that's a fair point. Both should be great. Seemingly they have a lot of advantages in either. Meanwhile, I would have expected TPA-HAV to be MUCH worse. FLL-HAV is better than I'd have thought.

I went into Form 41 and did a little analysis. WN breaks out their profits by region as required by law. Intl (Latin) shows a profit in that report. I thought that was a little surprising, so I looked at the CASM. Stage adjusted to their network number they are reporting CASM 15-25% lower than their system number for the Latin division. That tells me they either purposely or through poor allocation of costs are incorrectly reporting results for the Intl/Latin division. I did a CASM correction by taking the stage adjusted cost differential between Latin and System. This is actually fairly optimistic because int'l should have much higher costs than domestic not 15-25% lower costs. So the real results are probably significantly worse than this. On the plus side, it does look like the trend is significantly up.

Net, Margin, Corrected Net, Corrected Margin
4Q14 Reported: $2,140k 4.1% Corrected:-$12,609k -24.2%
1Q15 Reported: $6,117k 10.3% Corrected:-$12,585k -21.1%
2Q15 Reported: $8,970k 11.9% Corrected:-$13,301k -17.6%
3Q15 Reported: $7,745k 11.0% Corrected:-$7,678k -10.9%
4Q15 Reported: $8,779k 10.8% Corrected:-$14,750k -18.1%
1Q16 Reported: $9,972k 10.6% Corrected:-$9,419k -10.0%
2Q16 Reported: $15,829k 15.2% Corrected:-$8,239k -7.9%
3Q16 Reported: $7,027k 7.6% Corrected:-$11,684k -12.6%
4Q16 Reported: $9,453k 10.3% Corrected:-$13,078k -14.2%
1Q17 Reported: $7,417k 7.2% Corrected:-$35,654k -34.6%
2Q17 Reported: $18,056k 13.0% Corrected:-$13,202k -9.5%
3Q17 Reported: $12,312k 9.5% Corrected:-$4,028k -3.1%
4Q17 Reported: $42,299k 35.8% Corrected:$12,317k 10.4%
1Q18 Reported: $12,260k 9.4% Corrected:-$14,323k -10.9%
2Q18 Reported: $19,420k 12.8% Corrected:-$9,296k -6.1%
3Q18 Reported: $15,449k 11.0% Corrected:-$6,036k -4.3%
 
FSDan
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Re: WN Intl LFs for Oct 2017 to Sep 2018

Tue Apr 02, 2019 6:19 pm

enilria wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
enilria wrote:
I don't see how this is so poor. I haven't looked at the schedule. Perhaps it has goofy times? Plus it should have connectivity in FLL. Weird.


You point out FLL-CUN. I also noticed LAX-SJD in the 'poor' batch. These are in big markets to popular destinations. I don't see how one rationalizes how these specific routes are doing so poorly. Demand on a LCC with free bags and no change fees on these airport pairs ought to be very elastic.

I think that's a fair point. Both should be great. Seemingly they have a lot of advantages in either. Meanwhile, I would have expected TPA-HAV to be MUCH worse. FLL-HAV is better than I'd have thought.


FLL-CUN and LAX-SJD are large markets, but with that comes lots of competition. FLL-CUN has B6 (2x daily), NK (1x daily), and WN (2x daily), and just down the road at MIA AA has 5x daily (including 1x 763).

LAX-SJD is even more of a bloodbath. AA (1x daily), UA (1x daily), DL (2x daily), AS (2x daily), and WN (1x daily) all fly the route. Then AS and WN each have a daily on SNA-SJD as well.

Regarding TPA-HAV, Tampa has one of the largest Cuban-American populations in the U.S., and WN has the only nonstop flight.
This is my signature until I think of a better one.
 
axiom
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Re: WN Intl LFs for Oct 2017 to Sep 2018

Tue Apr 02, 2019 6:46 pm

TPA-Cuba is also served by several weekly charters. WN has increased their service to 8w, above the initial award. Not sure why people consistently mischaracterize this market.
 
SurfandSnow
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Re: WN Intl LFs for Oct 2017 to Sep 2018

Tue Apr 02, 2019 7:06 pm

Very interesting, thanks for sharing. FLL was no doubt going to be a struggle (in spite of the widely known/ever popular brand and "free" bags) with cheap chic B6 being well established there and NK upping their game in terms of product/service. LAX too was never going to be easy with 4 other hub carriers already serving the popular Mexican beach resort areas. Evidently HOU-MEX was the weakest link and it was eliminated. Looks like everything else in the bad category was a relatively new route and, for example, FLL-PLS started slow but quickly improved.
Flying in the middle seat of coach is much better than not flying at all!
 
Dominion301
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Re: WN Intl LFs for Oct 2017 to Sep 2018

Tue Apr 02, 2019 7:15 pm

FSDan wrote:
enilria wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:

You point out FLL-CUN. I also noticed LAX-SJD in the 'poor' batch. These are in big markets to popular destinations. I don't see how one rationalizes how these specific routes are doing so poorly. Demand on a LCC with free bags and no change fees on these airport pairs ought to be very elastic.

I think that's a fair point. Both should be great. Seemingly they have a lot of advantages in either. Meanwhile, I would have expected TPA-HAV to be MUCH worse. FLL-HAV is better than I'd have thought.


FLL-CUN and LAX-SJD are large markets, but with that comes lots of competition. FLL-CUN has B6 (2x daily), NK (1x daily), and WN (2x daily), and just down the road at MIA AA has 5x daily (including 1x 763).

LAX-SJD is even more of a bloodbath. AA (1x daily), UA (1x daily), DL (2x daily), AS (2x daily), and WN (1x daily) all fly the route. Then AS and WN each have a daily on SNA-SJD as well.

Regarding TPA-HAV, Tampa has one of the largest Cuban-American populations in the U.S., and WN has the only nonstop flight.


Didn't someone recently pull the plug on LAX-SJD?
 
FSDan
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Re: WN Intl LFs for Oct 2017 to Sep 2018

Tue Apr 02, 2019 7:23 pm

Dominion301 wrote:
FSDan wrote:
enilria wrote:
I think that's a fair point. Both should be great. Seemingly they have a lot of advantages in either. Meanwhile, I would have expected TPA-HAV to be MUCH worse. FLL-HAV is better than I'd have thought.


FLL-CUN and LAX-SJD are large markets, but with that comes lots of competition. FLL-CUN has B6 (2x daily), NK (1x daily), and WN (2x daily), and just down the road at MIA AA has 5x daily (including 1x 763).

LAX-SJD is even more of a bloodbath. AA (1x daily), UA (1x daily), DL (2x daily), AS (2x daily), and WN (1x daily) all fly the route. Then AS and WN each have a daily on SNA-SJD as well.

Regarding TPA-HAV, Tampa has one of the largest Cuban-American populations in the U.S., and WN has the only nonstop flight.


Didn't someone recently pull the plug on LAX-SJD?


Not any of the above that I listed. I got the frequencies from checking online schedules for late June.
This is my signature until I think of a better one.
 
Brickell305
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Re: WN Intl LFs for Oct 2017 to Sep 2018

Tue Apr 02, 2019 7:33 pm

SurfandSnow wrote:
Very interesting, thanks for sharing. FLL was no doubt going to be a struggle (in spite of the widely known/ever popular brand and "free" bags) with cheap chic B6 being well established there and NK upping their game in terms of product/service. LAX too was never going to be easy with 4 other hub carriers already serving the popular Mexican beach resort areas. Evidently HOU-MEX was the weakest link and it was eliminated. Looks like everything else in the bad category was a relatively new route and, for example, FLL-PLS started slow but quickly improved.


And to be fair to WN, FLL-PLS for example is far from a high volume route for any airline. That destination is usually a higher margin, low volume destination so I don't think LF alone can tell the tale there. Also, as you said B6 and NK have been established in FLL for a while as well as the competition from AA out of MIA plus foreign carriers in some markets. I do believe given time WN will improve in most of their markets. They've already helped to nudge BW off of FLL-MBJ for example. Once they entered, BW started allowing two free bags on the route to match WN before throwing in the towel. Once WN can stick to the high US point of sale destinations, they should do well on int'l ops.
 
frontierflyer
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Re: WN Intl LFs for Oct 2017 to Sep 2018

Tue Apr 02, 2019 7:35 pm

Anyone think the reason for low LF has to do with WN not being on the online booking systems ?
 
INFINITI329
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Re: WN Intl LFs for Oct 2017 to Sep 2018

Tue Apr 02, 2019 11:14 pm

frontierflyer wrote:
Anyone think the reason for low LF has to do with WN not being on the online booking systems ?


hmm this is very plausible. For the passengers who book packages via priceline, travelocity, kayak etc... Southwest isnt really an option in most cases
 
jco613
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Re: WN Intl LFs for Oct 2017 to Sep 2018

Tue Apr 02, 2019 11:35 pm

Fll-Cun started out 3x daily. At the time VRD and HAV were the only other multi daily from FLL internationally. CUN has been right sized, BZE, GCM, and PLS are less than daily out of season, NAS is up to 2x daily as is MBJ and HAV is up to 3x daily. They started blind and have now seen what works and doesn’t.
 
pmanni1
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Re: WN Intl LFs for Oct 2017 to Sep 2018

Tue Apr 02, 2019 11:42 pm

STL-CUN NOV 81 DEC 86 JAN 89 FEB 93 MAR 87 APR 79 MAY 85 JUN 92 JUL 95 AUG 89 SEP 80

It looks like STL is the best performer out of CUN. Followed by DEN.
 
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enilria
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Re: WN Intl LFs for Oct 2017 to Sep 2018

Wed Apr 03, 2019 12:46 am

INFINITI329 wrote:
frontierflyer wrote:
Anyone think the reason for low LF has to do with WN not being on the online booking systems ?


hmm this is very plausible. For the passengers who book packages via priceline, travelocity, kayak etc... Southwest isnt really an option in most cases

I think that really hurts them in large markets where they don't dominate.
 
jetblueguy22
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Re: WN Intl LFs for Oct 2017 to Sep 2018

Wed Apr 03, 2019 2:58 am

frontierflyer wrote:
Anyone think the reason for low LF has to do with WN not being on the online booking systems ?

Doesn’t help. I’ve become a loyal WN guy, but when I’m looking international even I go to Kayak first. I was actually surprised when I looked at their route map a few weeks back
Look at sweatpants guy. This is a 90 million dollar aircraft, not a Tallahassee strip club
 
1836Sam
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Re: WN Intl LFs for Oct 2017 to Sep 2018

Wed Apr 03, 2019 3:01 am

jplatts wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Jshank83 wrote:

One issue in my mind with FLL is there isn't enough feed to FLL from the states. They have all these INTL flights but not all the a many flights overall to feed them. It peaks at 108 flight and isn't one of the top 10 (or maybe even 15) WN stations and if you strip out the intl flights then it goes down even more. They really need to get it up in the 150+ range like HOU/MDW/BWI/etc to make it a hub for all the intl flights.


They don't have enough feed, because they can't make it work from the biggest markets out of FLL, which is the area around NYC and rest of Northeast. So their most recent strategy has been cutting EWR/IAD where they struggle and a bunch of secondary airports in the region and push everyone through BWI. And they also struggle on the international stuff that requires a lot of oversea point of sale. FLL imo was just not the right station to pick.


MIflyer12 wrote:
You point out FLL-CUN. I also noticed LAX-SJD in the 'poor' batch. These are in big markets to popular destinations. I don't see how one rationalizes how these specific routes are doing so poorly. Demand on a LCC with free bags and no change fees on these airport pairs ought to be very elastic.


MKE currently lacks year-round nonstop service to FLL or MIA, but WN does operate seasonal daily nonstop service to FLL from MKE.

There are also some WN stations such as BHM, GRR, SDF, MHT, MEM, ORF, OAK, ROC, SMF, SAN, and SJC that have daily nonstop service to MCO but not to FLL on WN. WN also has more nonstop service to MCO from many of the stations that have nonstop service to both MCO and FLL on WN.

WN could add MCO-CUN nonstop service, and WN can probably make MCO-CUN nonstop service work since (a) MCO is a larger WN station than FLL is, (b) WN has nonstop service to MCO from some domestic destinations that WN doesn't serve nonstop from FLL, and (c) WN would have more connecting feed on MCO-CUN than it does on FLL-CUN.


Hmmmmm. This is the first time I’ve ever heard anything like this. Someone definitely needs to notify WN PRONTO.
 
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EA CO AS
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Re: WN Intl LFs for Oct 2017 to Sep 2018

Wed Apr 03, 2019 6:33 am

enilria wrote:
enilria wrote:
FLL-CUN OCT 74 NOV 40 DEC 37 JAN 39 FEB 42 MAR 56 APR 50 MAY 48 JUN 61 JUL 63 AUG 59 SEP 34

I don't see how this is so poor. I haven't looked at the schedule. Perhaps it has goofy times? Plus it should have connectivity in FLL. Weird.


The connectivity probably doesn't add much, if anything; anyone headed to CUN from anywhere east of the Mississippi likely has nonstop service available to them on one or more carriers, or options for better connect points than FLL.
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LightChop2Chop
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Re: WN Intl LFs for Oct 2017 to Sep 2018

Wed Apr 03, 2019 12:28 pm

Someone mentioned lower CASM on the international routes. Perhaps the fact that these stations are outsourced (with lower labor costs etc) is a factor.
 
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enilria
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Re: WN Intl LFs for Oct 2017 to Sep 2018

Wed Apr 03, 2019 12:47 pm

EA CO AS wrote:
enilria wrote:
enilria wrote:
FLL-CUN OCT 74 NOV 40 DEC 37 JAN 39 FEB 42 MAR 56 APR 50 MAY 48 JUN 61 JUL 63 AUG 59 SEP 34

I don't see how this is so poor. I haven't looked at the schedule. Perhaps it has goofy times? Plus it should have connectivity in FLL. Weird.


The connectivity probably doesn't add much, if anything; anyone headed to CUN from anywhere east of the Mississippi likely has nonstop service available to them on one or more carriers, or options for better connect points than FLL.

Given the WN network at FLL that's probably true, but I assume AA does fine on their CUN's from a broader MIA network.
 
Murdoughnut
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Re: WN Intl LFs for Oct 2017 to Sep 2018

Wed Apr 03, 2019 1:36 pm

axiom wrote:
TPA-Cuba is also served by several weekly charters. WN has increased their service to 8w, above the initial award. Not sure why people consistently mischaracterize this market.


It's gotten lumped in with Boyd Group's (and other's) generally disparaging take on the US-Cuba market, but TPA-HAV has really stood out as the right capacity for a large Cuban population that traces its origins to the pre-Batista era, meaning Tampa doesn't have the charged relationship with Cuba that South Florida does. More recent TPA-HAV loads for WN have been quite strong, with Y/Y LF growth on increased capacity.
 
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enilria
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Re: WN Intl LFs for Oct 2017 to Sep 2018

Wed Apr 03, 2019 4:21 pm

Murdoughnut wrote:
axiom wrote:
TPA-Cuba is also served by several weekly charters. WN has increased their service to 8w, above the initial award. Not sure why people consistently mischaracterize this market.


It's gotten lumped in with Boyd Group's (and other's) generally disparaging take on the US-Cuba market, but TPA-HAV has really stood out as the right capacity for a large Cuban population that traces its origins to the pre-Batista era, meaning Tampa doesn't have the charged relationship with Cuba that South Florida does. More recent TPA-HAV loads for WN have been quite strong, with Y/Y LF growth on increased capacity.

I assume MCO-HAV would also do well then, right? It looks worse than TPA in T100 on same frequency and MCO has a ton of Cubans.
 
LightChop2Chop
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Re: WN Intl LFs for Oct 2017 to Sep 2018

Wed Apr 03, 2019 4:38 pm

enilria wrote:
Murdoughnut wrote:
axiom wrote:
TPA-Cuba is also served by several weekly charters. WN has increased their service to 8w, above the initial award. Not sure why people consistently mischaracterize this market.


It's gotten lumped in with Boyd Group's (and other's) generally disparaging take on the US-Cuba market, but TPA-HAV has really stood out as the right capacity for a large Cuban population that traces its origins to the pre-Batista era, meaning Tampa doesn't have the charged relationship with Cuba that South Florida does. More recent TPA-HAV loads for WN have been quite strong, with Y/Y LF growth on increased capacity.

I assume MCO-HAV would also do well then, right? It looks worse than TPA in T100 on same frequency and MCO has a ton of Cubans.


Cubans from TPA are different. as someone else mentioned they don't feel the ill will towards the homeland and they have a high propensity to travel home. WN did their research on TPA HAV and are seeing the fruits of those results.
 
axiom
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Re: WN Intl LFs for Oct 2017 to Sep 2018

Wed Apr 03, 2019 5:11 pm

enilria wrote:
Murdoughnut wrote:
axiom wrote:
TPA-Cuba is also served by several weekly charters. WN has increased their service to 8w, above the initial award. Not sure why people consistently mischaracterize this market.


It's gotten lumped in with Boyd Group's (and other's) generally disparaging take on the US-Cuba market, but TPA-HAV has really stood out as the right capacity for a large Cuban population that traces its origins to the pre-Batista era, meaning Tampa doesn't have the charged relationship with Cuba that South Florida does. More recent TPA-HAV loads for WN have been quite strong, with Y/Y LF growth on increased capacity.

I assume MCO-HAV would also do well then, right? It looks worse than TPA in T100 on same frequency and MCO has a ton of Cubans.


MCO has a much smaller Cuban population (about one third the size of Tampa), and an entirely different type of relationship with the island. I expect it to be much more connex reliant. Trivia note: TPA was more or less founded by a Cuban industrialist.
Last edited by axiom on Wed Apr 03, 2019 5:28 pm, edited 2 times in total.
 
tphuang
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Re: WN Intl LFs for Oct 2017 to Sep 2018

Wed Apr 03, 2019 5:14 pm

I can verify that MCO-HAV B6 consistently has lower LF than WN at TPA-HAV.

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