I think if Breeze launched a load of small cities from a single base at 3x/4x weekly- they probably should be questioned. But I doubt that is what we will see from them (obviously based on a feeling and not actual knowledge).
Breeze at least gives the impression they have a vision, a network and revenue plan and will build an airline around that. Based on the launch yesterday and info coming out about their policies it seems like Avelo has a cost structure and is trying to build an airline from there up.
It smells like early Allegiant for sure. Except when G4 was up and coming they were able to grow up in massive leisure markets. They (along with F9 and NK) have expanded into most major leisure markets and have adjusted their models accordingly to be the modern version of a ULCC. Avelo is kinda stuck with BUR as the next best option and running a model that might not be up to snuff for the current environment. These flights will have some pax in Jun or July, but how are they going to look in late September? Maybe there is more to come soon.
The network plans from Avelo and Breeze are not that different: connecting underserved cities.
I’ve seen loads more substance coming from Avelo than from Breeze. All Neelman has shared is it's going to be an app-centered airline staffed by part-time flight attendants who are attending college.
Completely true there has been more substance from Avelo than Breeze- due to the fact they made a route announcement yesterday. Otherwise their network was also based solely on speculation. And no one other than those involved have any idea how Breeze will stack up. Maybe it will raise just as many eyebrows.
I do somewhat take issue with the perspective presented by Avelo these are underserved markets. BUR is a Los Angeles basin airport no mater how you cut it and LAX/SNA/LGB/ONT will have some portion of overlap with BUR (large portion of leisure pax from small cities overlap?). So on a broader perspective most of these markets are not unserved and arguably not even under-served either:
STS - AS/SNA, AS & AA/LAX
ACV - UA/LAX
MFR - G4/SNA, G4 & AS & UA/LAX
EUG - G4 & AS & UA/LAX
RDD - UA/LAX
PSC - G4/LAX
BZN - G4 & AA & AS & DL & B6 & UA/LAX (!!!) Maybe specializing in BUR will be an advantage here?
OGD - None from OGD, would have to compare PVU and SLC
GJT - AA/LAX, G4/SNA
AZA - None from AZA, would have to compare PHX
While there is overlap mostly with LAX, SNA id rule out since it’s in not an adjacent area to BUR, you have to take in the fact that LAX is still a nightmare, traffic is nearly back to pre-Covid levels and after June 15 the state fully reopens and were back to the meyhem. I’m sure that no matter what LAX offers in comparison, it will never compare in ease and convenience to BUR. I think that post Covid many of these flights and possibly others will be very successful. People will also worry and be a bit sensitive still about large crowds and what better way to avoid masses of people than by smaller metro airports.
717, 727-100, 727-200, 732, 733, 734, 735, 73G, 738, 739, 742, 748, 752, 753, 762, 763, 772, 77W, 787-10, DC9, MD80/88/90, DC10, 319, 220-300, 320, 321, 321n, 332, 333, CS100, CRJ200, Q400, E175, E190, ERJ145, EMB120