CairnterriAIR wrote:

wedgetail737 wrote:

I'm sure Avelo will have significantly higher loads for the Holidays both West and East. It will be interesting to see how they due in January, February and early March.

Remember the huge numbers of snowbirds who fly between New England and Florida all Winter. There is also school vacations in February, and Spring Break in March (New Haven is a massive college town). There may be a few slow days, but as a rule...these routes are very very busy. A good gauge is simply looking at BDL and the sheer number of Florida flights running year round.

Completely agree .. this is not your run of the mill VFR or biz crowd ... Florida from this area is busy year round .. and yea even in summer. I don't think Avelo's gonna have any trouble whatsoever keeping this going through Jan/Feb ... they're off to a raging start here .. I'm loving this! Could it finally be that HVN's time to shine is finally here?! Much more ahead i hope .. and am confident about .. not just on Avelo .. but on others.

Does Avelo have any semblance of a frequent flyer program or any hints at starting one?

airlineworker wrote:

SFOformerFA wrote:

I heard from an Avelo manager that the load factor out of HVN is “off the charts” and the future bookings are looking very strong.

Now I hope UA will take notice and be the first to use the idle jet bridge. HVN-ORD.

I'd love to see those EMB175s or CRJ550/700/900s back in HVN doing ORD. That just seems like the next most logical destination and network connection to be added. Maybe even more so than DL to ATL .. but hey ... even WN to BWI would be interesting!

flyoregon wrote:

SYRAVGEEK wrote:

My grandmother was on an Avelo flight (BUR-STS) a few days ago, said that the flight was delayed an hour and only half full. Isn't looking too good for them out west.

That’s one flight and anecdotal. One flight being delayed and half full doesn’t represent an entire network from a “hub.” Also, Avelo is still very new and it’s not going to see 100% LF on every route every day. Allegiant certainly doesn’t and they’ve been around a lot longer. I wouldn’t throw in the towel on BUR quite yet.

Agree that BUR will play a key role for years to come. But they certainly do have a home run at HVN it will be hard for them to justify growth at Burbank in the next few months and years with New Haven performing so well. They already have 5 737-700s planned for HVN. With the loads the way they are I could see that growing further (before the -800 fleet grows) pending on what the temporary terminal will be able to handle. They already should be thinking bigger than the 4 gates they have planned for the east terminal.

tichydev wrote:

Agree that BUR will play a key role for years to come. But they certainly do have a home run at HVN it will be hard for them to justify growth at Burbank in the next few months and years with New Haven performing so well. They already have 5 737-700s planned for HVN. With the loads the way they are I could see that growing further (before the -800 fleet grows) pending on what the temporary terminal will be able to handle. They already should be thinking bigger than the 4 gates they have planned for the east terminal.

Just curious...what are the loads so far?

You’d think they’d want to get those 800s to the other side to maximize short term profits. Which is another reason they need to connect their network so they can flow their planes where they can make the most
Money

tichydev wrote:

flyoregon wrote:

SYRAVGEEK wrote:

My grandmother was on an Avelo flight (BUR-STS) a few days ago, said that the flight was delayed an hour and only half full. Isn't looking too good for them out west.

That’s one flight and anecdotal. One flight being delayed and half full doesn’t represent an entire network from a “hub.” Also, Avelo is still very new and it’s not going to see 100% LF on every route every day. Allegiant certainly doesn’t and they’ve been around a lot longer. I wouldn’t throw in the towel on BUR quite yet.

Agree that BUR will play a key role for years to come. But they certainly do have a home run at HVN it will be hard for them to justify growth at Burbank in the next few months and years with New Haven performing so well. They already have 5 737-700s planned for HVN. With the loads the way they are I could see that growing further (before the -800 fleet grows) pending on what the temporary terminal will be able to handle. They already should be thinking bigger than the 4 gates they have planned for the east terminal.

8 or 10 gate terminal similar to a SBN, FWA, ECP, VPS or SGF can be built very reasonably.

freakyrat wrote:

tichydev wrote:

flyoregon wrote:

That’s one flight and anecdotal. One flight being delayed and half full doesn’t represent an entire network from a “hub.” Also, Avelo is still very new and it’s not going to see 100% LF on every route every day. Allegiant certainly doesn’t and they’ve been around a lot longer. I wouldn’t throw in the towel on BUR quite yet.

Agree that BUR will play a key role for years to come. But they certainly do have a home run at HVN it will be hard for them to justify growth at Burbank in the next few months and years with New Haven performing so well. They already have 5 737-700s planned for HVN. With the loads the way they are I could see that growing further (before the -800 fleet grows) pending on what the temporary terminal will be able to handle. They already should be thinking bigger than the 4 gates they have planned for the east terminal.

8 or 10 gate terminal similar to a SBN, FWA, ECP, VPS or SGF can be built very reasonably.

The planned terminal will have 4 gates and space for 2 more. HVN has all the land it will ever have and I don't see its market being large enough to support a large operation, Along with Avelo, I see UA, DL and maybe WN, with these carriers offering service to ORD, ATL, BWI and perhaps a few to IAD and DTW. Still if HVN had service to these cities and Avelo to Florida, it would be a quantum leap for the airport. The best year HVN ever had was in the early 90's with 131,000 yearly boardings.
As far as the 800's at HVN, too much plane for too little runway for Florida flights.

I've seen a couple of people posting thoughts about WN possibly starting service at HVN. Where is this coming from?

AVLAirlineFreq wrote:

I've seen a couple of people posting thoughts about WN possibly starting service at HVN. Where is this coming from?

Personal desire. I mean this in a professional manner but WN is not coming to HVN. Avelo's new service from HVN is something to be celebrated. It's a terrific win for a facility and a market that have been strained for a decent level of air service to destinations that deserve attention. But expecting some moment of clarity on the behalf of WN, DL, UA, etc. about how they've been blind to HVN's potential is, in my opinion, misguided.

[quote="PVD523"][quote="AVL

There has been some exuberance from some posters regarding HVN, but when one looks into the market surrounding HVN, it has similar numbers as does Hartford. I see more service coming but I wonder how much can the present terminal handle. Avelo will be going to 5 737's at HVN, that does not leave much room for other carriers but there could be new flights to several hub airports. HVN needs service to hub airports to round out its offerings to area travelers. WN flies the 737-7 which is working well at HVN and 2 or 3 daily WN flights to MDW or BWI would be well supported as both airports offer many connections and also are strong final destinations.
Time will tell how this will work out and now with a new virus strain coming on the scene, how bad will air travel be affected?

airlineworker wrote:

PVD523 wrote:

[quote="AVL

There has been some exuberance from some posters regarding HVN, but when one looks into the market surrounding HVN, it has similar numbers as does Hartford. I see more service coming but I wonder how much can the present terminal handle. Avelo will be going to 5 737's at HVN, that does not leave much room for other carriers but there could be new flights to several hub airports. HVN needs service to hub airports to round out its offerings to area travelers. WN flies the 737-7 which is working well at HVN and 2 or 3 daily WN flights to MDW or BWI would be well supported as both airports offer many connections and also are strong final destinations.
Time will tell how this will work out and now with a new virus strain coming on the scene, how bad will air travel be affected?

Not seeing a huge effect at this point concerning air travel vs. virus variants. Even with this latest mutation, there have been conflicting reports as to how bad it is...most recent now saying vaccines most likely will be effective. Variants will happen, people just need to be careful and use precautions....and vaccinate. But back on topic...I’m seeing HVN becoming an airport serving predominantly leisure markets with maybe one legacy serving its hubs. The difference I see is that they won’t use higher cost regional jets, but rather mainline aircraft. Simply to maximize profits from a high potential but constrained market. I can’t see UA coming in again simply because of Newark in proximity. Better use of resources. A 550 will require a higher fare, and will United’s passengers bypass Bradley or Newark and the lower fares to fly out of HVN? They could serve Tweed with A-319’s and fly 4 trips a day to IAD, but they would have to focus on higher fares to connections out west....as they certainly won’t make money matching fares against Avelo. Delta could fare well with 220’s to ATL or DTW....efficient large capacity aircraft and a large FF base both using the NYC airports and BDL. But again, would they want to dedicate the resources? I actually think Delta will try. Southwest could jump in with 737-700’s to BWI....great network, recognized brand. But are they willing to start another New England market when they already have a large presence in cities nearby? If you want my opinion...if all goes well...by the time the new terminal opens up, you will see the following..
*Avelo with 10-12 destinations, Florida cities plus SJU,NAS,MYR, and a couple of Midwest destinations
*Delta to ATL and DTW
*Frontier to ORD, RDU, DFW
*Allegiant to SFD
* and possibly Cape Air to ACK

Just my guess

airlineworker wrote:

freakyrat wrote:

tichydev wrote:

Agree that BUR will play a key role for years to come. But they certainly do have a home run at HVN it will be hard for them to justify growth at Burbank in the next few months and years with New Haven performing so well. They already have 5 737-700s planned for HVN. With the loads the way they are I could see that growing further (before the -800 fleet grows) pending on what the temporary terminal will be able to handle. They already should be thinking bigger than the 4 gates they have planned for the east terminal.

8 or 10 gate terminal similar to a SBN, FWA, ECP, VPS or SGF can be built very reasonably.

The planned terminal will have 4 gates and space for 2 more. HVN has all the land it will ever have and I don't see its market being large enough to support a large operation, Along with Avelo, I see UA, DL and maybe WN, with these carriers offering service to ORD, ATL, BWI and perhaps a few to IAD and DTW. Still if HVN had service to these cities and Avelo to Florida, it would be a quantum leap for the airport. The best year HVN ever had was in the early 90's with 131,000 yearly boardings.
As far as the 800's at HVN, too much plane for too little runway for Florida flights.

WN has retreated in New England as the offerings at BOS, PVD MHT and BDL have shriveled up starting even before the pandemic so HVN getting their attention might be difficult. Otherwise carriers who serve Avelo destinations via their hubs know they have to offer rock bottom fares or concede traffic to those points. Would they still be interested? DL to DTW or UA to ORD perhaps sound realistic.

lat41 wrote:

WN has retreated in New England as the offerings at BOS, PVD MHT and BDL have shriveled up starting even before the pandemic so HVN getting their attention might be difficult. Otherwise carriers who serve Avelo destinations via their hubs know they have to offer rock bottom fares or concede traffic to those points. Would they still be interested? DL to DTW or UA to ORD perhaps sound realistic.

PWM actually had stronger demand for WN service in Summer 2021 than in Summer 2019, whereas most of the other Northeastern U.S. markets served by WN had weaker demand for WN service in Summer 2021 than in Summer 2019.

CairnterriAIR wrote:

airlineworker wrote:

PVD523 wrote:

[quote="AVL

There has been some exuberance from some posters regarding HVN, but when one looks into the market surrounding HVN, it has similar numbers as does Hartford. I see more service coming but I wonder how much can the present terminal handle. Avelo will be going to 5 737's at HVN, that does not leave much room for other carriers but there could be new flights to several hub airports. HVN needs service to hub airports to round out its offerings to area travelers. WN flies the 737-7 which is working well at HVN and 2 or 3 daily WN flights to MDW or BWI would be well supported as both airports offer many connections and also are strong final destinations.
Time will tell how this will work out and now with a new virus strain coming on the scene, how bad will air travel be affected?

Not seeing a huge effect at this point concerning air travel vs. virus variants. Even with this latest mutation, there have been conflicting reports as to how bad it is...most recent now saying vaccines most likely will be effective. Variants will happen, people just need to be careful and use precautions....and vaccinate. But back on topic...I’m seeing HVN becoming an airport serving predominantly leisure markets with maybe one legacy serving its hubs. The difference I see is that they won’t use higher cost regional jets, but rather mainline aircraft. Simply to maximize profits from a high potential but constrained market. I can’t see UA coming in again simply because of Newark in proximity. Better use of resources. A 550 will require a higher fare, and will United’s passengers bypass Bradley or Newark and the lower fares to fly out of HVN? They could serve Tweed with A-319’s and fly 4 trips a day to IAD, but they would have to focus on higher fares to connections out west....as they certainly won’t make money matching fares against Avelo. Delta could fare well with 220’s to ATL or DTW....efficient large capacity aircraft and a large FF base both using the NYC airports and BDL. But again, would they want to dedicate the resources? I actually think Delta will try. Southwest could jump in with 737-700’s to BWI....great network, recognized brand. But are they willing to start another New England market when they already have a large presence in cities nearby? If you want my opinion...if all goes well...by the time the new terminal opens up, you will see the following..
*Avelo with 10-12 destinations, Florida cities plus SJU,NAS,MYR, and a couple of Midwest destinations
*Delta to ATL and DTW
*Frontier to ORD, RDU, DFW
*Allegiant to SFD
* and possibly Cape Air to ACK

Just my guess

IAD offers little in the way of connections as compared to ORD and 4 A-319's would be overkill. ORD is the hub HVN could use and some say the market is small, but BDL has Hartford and Springfield and HVN has New Haven and Bridgeport, very similar in population. Allegiant for several years went back and forth about coming to HVN and adding SFB would be pointless in view of Avelo's service to six Florida cities. HVN leaks about 90+% to other airports, mostly BDL so there is potential at HVN to grow. Frontier is point to point, not what HVN needs most. DL and UA are the best in adding network hub airlines to connect with rest of the country and international.
Avelo to SJU sounds good but it may be a stretch off HVN's runway. As far as UA, ever drive from New Haven to EWR on the parking lot known as I-95? I don't see where UA using E-175's or similar would be cost prohibitive since regional's pay is much than mainline and if growth is good on HVN-ORD, then mainline can be added. Back in the 90's when UA flew HVN-ORD, it was either 737's or nothing else as RJ's were almost non existent. Now with CRJ-550's, CRJ-700's, E-170's E-175's and A-220's,all offering first class sections, HVN has many options it never had before. Also since the 90's HVN has added 1000 foot overruns at both ends and cleaned up the approach to runway 20.
Some see the glass as half empty, I see it as half full remembering back in the 90's, ORD-HVN flights on 737's and gate agents asking for volunteers to give up their seats due to being oversold.
Just my 2 cents worth.

jplatts wrote:

lat41 wrote:

WN has retreated in New England as the offerings at BOS, PVD MHT and BDL have shriveled up starting even before the pandemic so HVN getting their attention might be difficult. Otherwise carriers who serve Avelo destinations via their hubs know they have to offer rock bottom fares or concede traffic to those points. Would they still be interested? DL to DTW or UA to ORD perhaps sound realistic.

PWM actually had stronger demand for WN service in Summer 2021 than in Summer 2019, whereas most of the other Northeastern U.S. markets served by WN had weaker demand for WN service in Summer 2021 than in Summer 2019.

I don’t know that I would agree that all of New England, except for PWM had weaker demand. They all saw drastically reduced capacity while PWMs capacity increased to try to fill some leisure seats while business travel demand was weak. I’m not convinced that they wouldn’t have filled more seats outside of PWM if WN had more flights. I do agree that with the WN cuts in New England that I would be very surprised if they opened a new station in the region. EWR will come back before HVN is considered. I also agree that HVN should be trying for ORD and DTW. They seem realistic.

I’d hate to point it out but, since when did this become a WN forum? Avelo took the open door on one of the last gems of a market in the industry when other carriers failed to see it. Unless they come in looking to put early pressure on XP, I think WN, B6, F9, AL, MX etc all missed their shot at New Haven and Avelo is likely to dig in deep here. Other LCCs may come but they’ll be late to the party. Avelo will more than likely try MDW and find an o&d market there.

As others have said the market for HVN is no smaller than BDL or PVD. There’s no reason Avelo can’t make that their niche and run with it. As for other carriers? American will come back eventually, there’s rumors already flying that that will be sooner rather than later. It’s no secret United Express (and indirectly through SkyWest) have been looking at HVN for years and Avelo’s success is going to turn heads. I see 3-5 hubs on 2 major affiliates and Avelo serving the market well. Of course this depends on the new terminal. HVN has plenty of room to build something very nice on the east side. Plans from the 2002 master plan show options for upwards of 15 gates. 8 should be no sweat down the road.

Avelo thus far seems to be a refreshing step up from the traditional ULCC. At least on the east coast with the former WN 700s. They seem to be filling a nice gap between ULCC and LCC. It’s incredible to have them here. The most apparent thing here is that Avelo is here to stay and grow at HVN. That’s what matters.

AVLAirlineFreq wrote:

I've seen a couple of people posting thoughts about WN possibly starting service at HVN. Where is this coming from?

Southwest is lukewarm about it's existing New England destinations as it is, so I would think WN service chances would be remote.

tichydev wrote:

I’d hate to point it out but, since when did this become a WN forum? Avelo took the open door on one of the last gems of a market in the industry when other carriers failed to see it. Unless they come in looking to put early pressure on XP, I think WN, B6, F9, AL, MX etc all missed their shot at New Haven and Avelo is likely to dig in deep here. Other LCCs may come but they’ll be late to the party. Avelo will more than likely try MDW and find an o&d market there.

As others have said the market for HVN is no smaller than BDL or PVD. There’s no reason Avelo can’t make that their niche and run with it. As for other carriers? American will come back eventually, there’s rumors already flying that that will be sooner rather than later. It’s no secret United Express (and indirectly through SkyWest) have been looking at HVN for years and Avelo’s success is going to turn heads. I see 3-5 hubs on 2 major affiliates and Avelo serving the market well. Of course this depends on the new terminal. HVN has plenty of room to build something very nice on the east side. Plans from the 2002 master plan show options for upwards of 15 gates. 8 should be no sweat down the road.

Avelo thus far seems to be a refreshing step up from the traditional ULCC. At least on the east coast with the former WN 700s. They seem to be filling a nice gap between ULCC and LCC. It’s incredible to have them here. The most apparent thing here is that Avelo is here to stay and grow at HVN. That’s what matters.

If AA returns to HVN, I hope its not a single flight to PHL. Last July 2020 AA announced in the fall it would start two daily HVN-CLT flights, never happened. With the jet bridge idle, AA, UA or DL should do well with RJ's to CLT, ORD or ATL. I don't see the new terminal coming for some time although the recent re election of East Havens mayor Carfora is a good sign as he seems to be willing to work with HVN and the new terminal.
Alelo jumped in with both feet on the HVN service with six Florida cities and a seventh non Florida city to be announced soon. I'm glad Allegiant waffled for a few years on service to HVN and their level of service would not have been what Avelo has committed to. My son lives near ROA and for over 10 years Allegiant has maintained the about same level of service, 2-3 weekly flights to SFB and 1-2 weekly flights to PIE. I would imagine their offerings to HVN would have been close to ROA levels.
As far as WN, it used to be when they started service to a new airport, it was at least six daily flights but over the years they have lowered that standard. 3 daily flights to MDW or BWI would be great but again, how much can the present terminal handle? 2022 should be an exciting year for HVN, I've said this about past years but I hope I'm right this time.

tichydev wrote:

Avelo thus far seems to be a refreshing step up from the traditional ULCC. At least on the east coast with the former WN 700s. They seem to be filling a nice gap between ULCC and LCC. It’s incredible to have them here. The most apparent thing here is that Avelo is here to stay and grow at HVN. That’s what matters.

Correct, for the time being that's all that matters. I'm not nearly as bullish on HVN as other users on here are but at least it's a great stepping stone to hopefully some bigger things.

Infrastructure is, and will continue to be, HVN's achilles heel. The terminal needs to be expanded, the runway not only needs to be extended but also upgraded - there is no centerline light or touchdown zone light system - and a more capable ILS looked at, though that's FAA jurisdiction. Airlines other than Avelo are no doubt looking at the airport's potential but until the infrastructure issues are addressed, HVN will most likely be Avelo's playground exclusively.

Side note, this discussion may be better served being moved to the New England airports thread.

Switching gears to a more relevant discussion for all of Avelo... Anyone have any reliable info on the next batch of -700s? I know there are 3 former DL -700s that are very similarly optioned sitting in SBD that could likely be destined for Avelo.

I see the first of the second set of -800s (N805XT another former Turkish -8F2) is in the fleet. Does anyone know if they're still planning on taking delivery of the other 2 (presumably 804/806) or are those plans being put on hold to grow the -700 fleet?

How come they're not using the jetway at HVN?

phllax wrote:

How come they're not using the jetway at HVN?

Current configuration as the terminal improvements are being made kinda dictate using the expanded downstairs gates (former gates 1/2). The Mezzanine level gates don't actually have allot of seating capacity. It was an issue with the AA E175s. AA had a ridiculously large customer service desk up there that they almost never used which could have added space however, the boarding area was a bottleneck and I still don't see it being comfortable for a full Avelo flight. The old downstairs gates before expansion were designed to handle 2-3 commuter flights at a time When Continental Express was there and were slightly more spacious than the mezz gate(s). That being said, the mezzanine area is nice to have open. Its a much brighter hold area that feels more like "a real airport". These plans were also made before AA made their exit known and the mezz level holdroom was supposed to remain exclusive to AA even though they would somehow share the ramp parking.

The other issues are additional cost (avelo is an ULCC). According to some the jetbridge needs some TLC again which is a shame because the airport spent allot of money revamping it for AA. The drawings do indicate they plan to use it once the new holdroom is done for the two other gates. The third parking area is designed to use either the ramps or the jetbridge. You may see them start to use it when the 3rd airplane shows up and the terminal gets more crowded with overlapping flights in the AM The new terminal will feature at least 4 jetbridge gates.

Another issue would be the confusion of having the baggage claim in the old terminal. Getting there from "gate 3/4" (as it is known thusfar) would be confusing with the new layout. However, if Avelo ever intends to have any kind of connecting flights through HVN it would be quite nice to have that area at it's disposal.

tichydev wrote:

I’d hate to point it out but, since when did this become a WN forum? Avelo took the open door on one of the last gems of a market in the industry when other carriers failed to see it. Unless they come in looking to put early pressure on XP, I think WN, B6, F9, AL, MX etc all missed their shot at New Haven and Avelo is likely to dig in deep here. Other LCCs may come but they’ll be late to the party. Avelo will more than likely try MDW and find an o&d market there.

As others have said the market for HVN is no smaller than BDL or PVD. There’s no reason Avelo can’t make that their niche and run with it. As for other carriers? American will come back eventually, there’s rumors already flying that that will be sooner rather than later. It’s no secret United Express (and indirectly through SkyWest) have been looking at HVN for years and Avelo’s success is going to turn heads. I see 3-5 hubs on 2 major affiliates and Avelo serving the market well. Of course this depends on the new terminal. HVN has plenty of room to build something very nice on the east side. Plans from the 2002 master plan show options for upwards of 15 gates. 8 should be no sweat down the road.

Avelo thus far seems to be a refreshing step up from the traditional ULCC. At least on the east coast with the former WN 700s. They seem to be filling a nice gap between ULCC and LCC. It’s incredible to have them here. The most apparent thing here is that Avelo is here to stay and grow at HVN. That’s what matters.

Just my take on what level of service will work well at HVN. UA to ORD, UA to IAD if DCA slots are not available and AA does not return, DL to ATL. Along with Avelo, this would eliminate much of the areas dependence on BDL. If AA returns, CLT, not PHL. 2022 should be interesting.

If the HVN operation turns out to be more profitable than the BUR one, what does everyone think Avelo will do in terms of it's west coast ops?

MavyWavyATR wrote:

If the HVN operation turns out to be more profitable than the BUR one, what does everyone think Avelo will do in terms of it's west coast ops?

If this early trend continues Avelo will need to make a decision on adding more 700's to the fleet. Do they add more aircraft or do they hold off or cut back on the 800's?

We may see them move the 800's to the East Coast and fly them North-South on Northeast to Florida runs first before we see them turning HVN into a hub of some sort. I'm sure they could find cities that will take 2X or 3X weekly to MCO, FLL, TPA, etc.

If the HVN model holds promise then my guess is they would/should rush to any viable airport that does not have G4 or other ULCC. The one challenge is with the base being up north vs Florida is serving places like ERI and AVP to MCO via a HVN base within a crew duty day. Also have to wonder if CEF could be in play with Avelo.

spinkid wrote:

MavyWavyATR wrote:

If the HVN operation turns out to be more profitable than the BUR one, what does everyone think Avelo will do in terms of it's west coast ops?

If this early trend continues Avelo will need to make a decision on adding more 700's to the fleet. Do they add more aircraft or do they hold off or cut back on the 800's?

We may see them move the 800's to the East Coast and fly them North-South on Northeast to Florida runs first before we see them turning HVN into a hub of some sort. I'm sure they could find cities that will take 2X or 3X weekly to MCO, FLL, TPA, etc.

I can't see calling HVN a hub airport as hub airports provide many flights with many passengers making connections. The terminal is not capable of that type of operation. Point to point will be what works well for HVN but still a legacy carrier needs to offer service to connecting hubs for service beyond Florida. The 800's on the Florida routes might be subject to weigh restrictions at times due to the 5600 foot runway. The 700's are working very well at HVN, have not heard of any weight restricted or diverted flights. Stick with what's working.

RL757PVD wrote:

If the HVN model holds promise then my guess is they would/should rush to any viable airport that does not have G4 or other ULCC. The one challenge is with the base being up north vs Florida is serving places like ERI and AVP to MCO via a HVN base within a crew duty day. Also have to wonder if CEF could be in play with Avelo.

CEF would be a hilarious slap in the face to BDL for all their years of trying to hold back HVN.

As far as east coast growth is concerned there are still several strong markets to add to HVN but, they will eventually need to start looking at a second city for Florida markets. With all the LCC and ULCC flying going on between even the smallest EAS cities that could be difficult to do. It would certainly be difficult to find an unserved market with as much potential at HVN.

I have heard some discussion in other forums about maybe PHF. That would make allot of sense however PHF has a history of failed P2P service. I almost wonder if they could make something like HVN-PHF-MCO work? There is a fair amount of traffic between CT and the Newport News/Norfolk area because of Electric Boat as well as a little potential for leisure travel in the summer. You could market through traffic as well.

As far as the west coast goes I doubt you’ll see them pick up and run. Most startup airlines plan for a few years of low loads to build a market. HVN has simply been the exception. There are many other markets with potential for BUR/LAS service as well. I think they will at least hold to the initial “order” for 3 more -800s because if anything else, they need them to support the existing network. The -800 is also a solid charter platform which XP has continued to dabble in. They may chose to prioritize more -700s for a bit but, I doubt you’ll see the -800 or the west coast operation go anywhere.

tichydev wrote:

I have heard some discussion in other forums about maybe PHF. That would make allot of sense however PHF has a history of failed P2P service. I almost wonder if they could make something like HVN-PHF-MCO work? There is a fair amount of traffic between CT and the Newport News/Norfolk area because of Electric Boat as well as a little potential for leisure travel in the summer. You could market through traffic as well.

GDEB has really cranked up usage of its own fleet, especially since covid. they’re using company aircraft even for transcons these days. i don’t really see them contributing much to any potential avelo ops to PHF.

rnav2dlrey wrote:

tichydev wrote:

I have heard some discussion in other forums about maybe PHF. That would make allot of sense however PHF has a history of failed P2P service. I almost wonder if they could make something like HVN-PHF-MCO work? There is a fair amount of traffic between CT and the Newport News/Norfolk area because of Electric Boat as well as a little potential for leisure travel in the summer. You could market through traffic as well.

GDEB has really cranked up usage of its own fleet, especially since covid. they’re using company aircraft even for transcons these days. i don’t really see them contributing much to any potential avelo ops to PHF.

They still have that shuttle on their 1900. I flew a very similar corporate shuttle a few years back from HVN 2/day 3 days/week. At least for this particular company for every passenger on the shuttle there were 5 more who didn’t make the cut and had to take the train or drive. I’ve also met more than a few GD employees on the HVN-PHL flight connecting to ORF/PHF. Not saying that makes it a stand-alone market at all if anything the continuing passengers would help justify the route both for PHF and as an additional frequency for HVN to whatever market they continued to. WN certainly takes advantage of that at BWI.

But as I tried to edit my previous post (and I’m not sure why it came out that way) there is potential HVN-MCO-PHF-MCO-HVN could work in a duty day. Yes, it would be a long day and the crew would hate it. My point was more for similar markets farther south but it could work. Something more like AGS, ILM or EWN that lack service to Orlando.

tichydev wrote:

RL757PVD wrote:

If the HVN model holds promise then my guess is they would/should rush to any viable airport that does not have G4 or other ULCC. The one challenge is with the base being up north vs Florida is serving places like ERI and AVP to MCO via a HVN base within a crew duty day. Also have to wonder if CEF could be in play with Avelo.

CEF would be a hilarious slap in the face to BDL for all their years of trying to hold back HVN.

As far as east coast growth is concerned there are still several strong markets to add to HVN but, they will eventually need to start looking at a second city for Florida markets. With all the LCC and ULCC flying going on between even the smallest EAS cities that could be difficult to do. It would certainly be difficult to find an unserved market with as much potential at HVN.

I have heard some discussion in other forums about maybe PHF. That would make allot of sense however PHF has a history of failed P2P service. I almost wonder if they could make something like HVN-PHF-MCO work? There is a fair amount of traffic between CT and the Newport News/Norfolk area because of Electric Boat as well as a little potential for leisure travel in the summer. You could market through traffic as well.

As far as the west coast goes I doubt you’ll see them pick up and run. Most startup airlines plan for a few years of low loads to build a market. HVN has simply been the exception. There are many other markets with potential for BUR/LAS service as well. I think they will at least hold to the initial “order” for 3 more -800s because if anything else, they need them to support the existing network. The -800 is also a solid charter platform which XP has continued to dabble in. They may chose to prioritize more -700s for a bit but, I doubt you’ll see the -800 or the west coast operation go anywhere.

Years back there was talk of a LCC coming to CEF, I was sorry it never happened. It would have diverted their attention from HVN. Had BDL been located around the Middletown area, it would have had more appeal for more of the states travelers, but it's location is far from being central to the states population. I would say 33%-50% of Avelos passengers are former BDL users. When one looks at the increase in weekly passenger numbers, AA 5 days x67 seats

airlineworker wrote:

tichydev wrote:

RL757PVD wrote:

If the HVN model holds promise then my guess is they would/should rush to any viable airport that does not have G4 or other ULCC. The one challenge is with the base being up north vs Florida is serving places like ERI and AVP to MCO via a HVN base within a crew duty day. Also have to wonder if CEF could be in play with Avelo.

CEF would be a hilarious slap in the face to BDL for all their years of trying to hold back HVN.

As far as east coast growth is concerned there are still several strong markets to add to HVN but, they will eventually need to start looking at a second city for Florida markets. With all the LCC and ULCC flying going on between even the smallest EAS cities that could be difficult to do. It would certainly be difficult to find an unserved market with as much potential at HVN.

I have heard some discussion in other forums about maybe PHF. That would make allot of sense however PHF has a history of failed P2P service. I almost wonder if they could make something like HVN-PHF-MCO work? There is a fair amount of traffic between CT and the Newport News/Norfolk area because of Electric Boat as well as a little potential for leisure travel in the summer. You could market through traffic as well.

As far as the west coast goes I doubt you’ll see them pick up and run. Most startup airlines plan for a few years of low loads to build a market. HVN has simply been the exception. There are many other markets with potential for BUR/LAS service as well. I think they will at least hold to the initial “order” for 3 more -800s because if anything else, they need them to support the existing network. The -800 is also a solid charter platform which XP has continued to dabble in. They may chose to prioritize more -700s for a bit but, I doubt you’ll see the -800 or the west coast operation go anywhere.

Years back there was talk of a LCC coming to CEF, I was sorry it never happened. It would have diverted their attention from HVN. Had BDL been located around the Middletown area, it would have had more appeal for more of the states travelers, but it's location is far from being central to the states population. I would say 33%-50% of Avelos passengers are former BDL users. When one looks at the increase in weekly passenger numbers, AA 5 days x67 seats

CEF did have service on an LCC, it was Skybus and didn't last long.

HVN doesn't leak passengers to BDL as much as you think. I have seen past reports saying only 17% of leakage goes to BDL, the majority still use NYC airports. Many of the passengers that do use BDL over HVN are in the northern New Haven County or Middlesex county area which will always prefer BDL.

Check out page 11 below.

https://static1.squarespace.com/static/ ... +Areas.pdf

Two questions:

What does a typical flight attendant and/or pilot workday look like, i.e. rotation or sequence? We called it an ID at United. Is it one round trip or two in a duty period for the HVN crews?

I’ve noticed on FlightAware, HVN, runways 2 and 20 are both used for departures and arrivals. What factors go into the decision to assign one or the other? Is it wind direction, weather, weight? I’ve seen flights within 2 hours of each other use different runways for departures and/or arrivals.

SFOformerFA wrote:

Two questions:

What does a typical flight attendant and/or pilot workday look like, i.e. rotation or sequence? We called it an ID at United. Is it one round trip or two in a duty period for the HVN crews?

I’ve noticed on FlightAware, HVN, runways 2 and 20 are both used for departures and arrivals. What factors go into the decision to assign one or the other? Is it wind direction, weather, weight? I’ve seen flights within 2 hours of each other use different runways for departures and/or arrivals.

Currently one crew works one turn due to duty day restrictions. That could only really change with a shorter duration flight being added as I suggested above or if they had crews overnight in FL.

As for runway considerations wind is always the primary factor however, in calm wind it is preferred to land runway 2 and depart 20 due to rising terrain north of the field and also convenience of landing/departing straight in/out with a short taxi. Runway 2 also has an ILS approach while 20 only has an RNAV with higher minimums. Runway 20 has a displaced threshold (supposed to be removed) however, that hasn't seemed to affect Avelo.

uconn99 wrote:

airlineworker wrote:

tichydev wrote:

CEF would be a hilarious slap in the face to BDL for all their years of trying to hold back HVN.

As far as east coast growth is concerned there are still several strong markets to add to HVN but, they will eventually need to start looking at a second city for Florida markets. With all the LCC and ULCC flying going on between even the smallest EAS cities that could be difficult to do. It would certainly be difficult to find an unserved market with as much potential at HVN.

I have heard some discussion in other forums about maybe PHF. That would make allot of sense however PHF has a history of failed P2P service. I almost wonder if they could make something like HVN-PHF-MCO work? There is a fair amount of traffic between CT and the Newport News/Norfolk area because of Electric Boat as well as a little potential for leisure travel in the summer. You could market through traffic as well.

As far as the west coast goes I doubt you’ll see them pick up and run. Most startup airlines plan for a few years of low loads to build a market. HVN has simply been the exception. There are many other markets with potential for BUR/LAS service as well. I think they will at least hold to the initial “order” for 3 more -800s because if anything else, they need them to support the existing network. The -800 is also a solid charter platform which XP has continued to dabble in. They may chose to prioritize more -700s for a bit but, I doubt you’ll see the -800 or the west coast operation go anywhere.

Years back there was talk of a LCC coming to CEF, I was sorry it never happened. It would have diverted their attention from HVN. Had BDL been located around the Middletown area, it would have had more appeal for more of the states travelers, but it's location is far from being central to the states population. I would say 33%-50% of Avelos passengers are former BDL users. When one looks at the increase in weekly passenger numbers, AA 5 days x67 seats

CEF did have service on an LCC, it was Skybus and didn't last long.

HVN doesn't leak passengers to BDL as much as you think. I have seen past reports saying only 17% of leakage goes to BDL, the majority still use NYC airports. Many of the passengers that do use BDL over HVN are in the northern New Haven County or Middlesex county area which will always prefer BDL.

Check out page 11 below.

https://static1.squarespace.com/static/ ... +Areas.pdf

You are correct that HVN leaks more passengers to NY area airports than BDL. That has always been a big point of airport supporters when cahllenged with the Idea that a better tweed will limit and be limited by BDL. However, the routes Avelo has taken on will be very competitive with BDL, HPN and PVD for New Haven county travelers that would have made the drive to BDL for a nonstop flight to SoFL, including myself.

Avelo also has potential to compete outside of New Haven's traditional catchment area with low fares and soon, destinations not served by other area airports. BDL does not have service to SRQ and there is potential Avelo could also play this advantage on markets like SAV, JAX, DAB, ECP, VPS etc... Say you lived in Hartford and have a second home in Sarasota, are you going to fly out of BDL and connect through CLT/ATL? (airline loyalty aside) or would you chose a nonstop out of HVN which isnt actually all that inconvenient compared to BDL being almost in Mass?

The traffic on I-95 could also significantly sway the drive time to HVN vs HPN or LGA/JFK/EWR for those in Fairfield County depending on the time of day. If I lived in Westport I'd probably chose a 9am HVN-FLL over a 9am HPN-FLL. Again in this case fare and airline preference are coming into play, both of which Avelo has proven competitive in. I have yet to hear any negative feedback about their product at HVN.

New Haven has a large market within its own catchment area and Avelo's ability to compete outside of that have incredible potential. The initial loads have made it pretty clear that the limiting factor here is going to be the infrastructure HVN can provide to support their growth.

uconn99 wrote:

airlineworker wrote:

tichydev wrote:

CEF would be a hilarious slap in the face to BDL for all their years of trying to hold back HVN.

As far as east coast growth is concerned there are still several strong markets to add to HVN but, they will eventually need to start looking at a second city for Florida markets. With all the LCC and ULCC flying going on between even the smallest EAS cities that could be difficult to do. It would certainly be difficult to find an unserved market with as much potential at HVN.

I have heard some discussion in other forums about maybe PHF. That would make allot of sense however PHF has a history of failed P2P service. I almost wonder if they could make something like HVN-PHF-MCO work? There is a fair amount of traffic between CT and the Newport News/Norfolk area because of Electric Boat as well as a little potential for leisure travel in the summer. You could market through traffic as well.

As far as the west coast goes I doubt you’ll see them pick up and run. Most startup airlines plan for a few years of low loads to build a market. HVN has simply been the exception. There are many other markets with potential for BUR/LAS service as well. I think they will at least hold to the initial “order” for 3 more -800s because if anything else, they need them to support the existing network. The -800 is also a solid charter platform which XP has continued to dabble in. They may chose to prioritize more -700s for a bit but, I doubt you’ll see the -800 or the west coast operation go anywhere.

Years back there was talk of a LCC coming to CEF, I was sorry it never happened. It would have diverted their attention from HVN. Had BDL been located around the Middletown area, it would have had more appeal for more of the states travelers, but it's location is far from being central to the states population. I would say 33%-50% of Avelos passengers are former BDL users. When one looks at the increase in weekly passenger numbers, AA 5 days x67 seats

CEF did have service on an LCC, it was Skybus and didn't last long.

HVN doesn't leak passengers to BDL as much as you think. I have seen past reports saying only 17% of leakage goes to BDL, the majority still use NYC airports. Many of the passengers that do use BDL over HVN are in the northern New Haven County or Middlesex county area which will always prefer BDL.

Check out page 11 below.

https://static1.squarespace.com/static/ ... +Areas.pdf

I forgot about Skybus. 17% leakage is still quite a bit but I never found that online pie chart showing 27% of metro New Haven flyers use BDL. People I knew in the shoreline area mostly if not all opted for BDL except for international flights then it was always JFK.

I took a spin this afternoon down to Tweed to check things out and to watch the afternoon turnaround (because I am that kinda geek!). I watched the Avelo staff turn what looked to be a heavily loaded MCO arrival around in only about 45 mins back to RSW. I wasn't counting pax, of course, but it looked like another heavy load outbound .. they used both forward and rear doors for deplaning/boarding.

What impressed me most was the transformation of the old/original HVN terminal into an arrivals building. I spent many years working in that little old building during my time at USAir Express, Continental Express and Pilgrim/NewAir, so i was curious to see how they cut that space up. They ripped out all the old counters, etc, put an actual baggage claim conveyor type belt right across the front .. new flooring, lots of sprucing up and new office space .. they made brilliant use of that little building.

Of course, the new east-side terminal, once built, will be amazing, but I was very impressed at what i saw today. There were alotta nay-sayers about this Avelo HVN project, but from what i saw today, Avelo and Tweed are doing an amazing job with the current facility .. they seem to be nailin it!

I saw ISP has announcement on Monday anyone think it’s the rumored next base for avelo ?

Wneast wrote:

I saw ISP has announcement on Monday anyone think it’s the rumored next base for avelo ?

Wouldn't that cannibalize their HVN operation?

F27500 wrote:

I took a spin this afternoon down to Tweed to check things out and to watch the afternoon turnaround (because I am that kinda geek!). I watched the Avelo staff turn what looked to be a heavily loaded MCO arrival around in only about 45 mins back to RSW. I wasn't counting pax, of course, but it looked like another heavy load outbound .. they used both forward and rear doors for deplaning/boarding.

What impressed me most was the transformation of the old/original HVN terminal into an arrivals building. I spent many years working in that little old building during my time at USAir Express, Continental Express and Pilgrim/NewAir, so i was curious to see how they cut that space up. They ripped out all the old counters, etc, put an actual baggage claim conveyor type belt right across the front .. new flooring, lots of sprucing up and new office space .. they made brilliant use of that little building.

Of course, the new east-side terminal, once built, will be amazing, but I was very impressed at what i saw today. There were alotta nay-sayers about this Avelo HVN project, but from what i saw today, Avelo and Tweed are doing an amazing job with the current facility .. they seem to be nailin it!

I remember when UA came to HVN and the 737's had passengers waiting to check in lined up outside the front entrance down to the car drop off area. Some airlines are monkey see, monkey do. When Eastern came back, Allegheny started using BAC-1-11's and DC-9's. I think it was the BAC-1-11 that created more enemies of the airport as it was the loudest airliner taking off. The noise lasted quite some time after takeoff. Over the many years I flew Eastern, Allegheny United and American. Hope AA will return with the 2 daily flight to CLT it announced in July 2020. Expecting a good 2021 for HVN with Avelo and one or two legacy carriers to hub airports to connect with the rest of the country.

Wneast wrote:

I saw ISP has announcement on Monday anyone think it’s the rumored next base for avelo ?

In my opinionated mind, the ISP announcement is probably B6, NK, or MX, but MX said last time they were announcing routes before the airports got to them. B6 sounds like this announcement with their alliance with AA and their presence in the NY area.

MavyWavyATR wrote:

Wneast wrote:

I saw ISP has announcement on Monday anyone think it’s the rumored next base for avelo ?

Wouldn't that cannibalize their HVN operation?

Separated by Long Island Sound. Not even remotely the same catchment area

[threeid][/threeid]

Cboyle wrote:

Wneast wrote:

I saw ISP has announcement on Monday anyone think it’s the rumored next base for avelo ?

In my opinionated mind, the ISP announcement is probably B6, NK, or MX, but MX said last time they were announcing routes before the airports got to them. B6 sounds like this announcement with their alliance with AA and their presence in the NY area.

Disregard that: the announcement appears to be MX. GAT is hiring there, and you know what happened last time with that speculation…

Cboyle wrote:

[threeid][/threeid]

Cboyle wrote:

Wneast wrote:

I saw ISP has announcement on Monday anyone think it’s the rumored next base for avelo ?

In my opinionated mind, the ISP announcement is probably B6, NK, or MX, but MX said last time they were announcing routes before the airports got to them. B6 sounds like this announcement with their alliance with AA and their presence in the NY area.

Disregard that: the announcement appears to be MX. GAT is hiring there, and you know what happened last time with that speculation…

what do you mean by GAT hiring led to something?

PITFlyer330 wrote:

Cboyle wrote:

[threeid][/threeid]

Cboyle wrote:

In my opinionated mind, the ISP announcement is probably B6, NK, or MX, but MX said last time they were announcing routes before the airports got to them. B6 sounds like this announcement with their alliance with AA and their presence in the NY area.

Disregard that: the announcement appears to be MX. GAT is hiring there, and you know what happened last time with that speculation…

what do you mean by GAT hiring led to something?

Someone in upper management at Breeze was connected to ground handling company GAT. Usually where GAT has hired Breeze ended up being the carrier they were hiring for.

jetmatt777 wrote:

PITFlyer330 wrote:

Cboyle wrote:

[threeid][/threeid]
Disregard that: the announcement appears to be MX. GAT is hiring there, and you know what happened last time with that speculation…

what do you mean by GAT hiring led to something?

Someone in upper management at Breeze was connected to ground handling company GAT. Usually where GAT has hired Breeze ended up being the carrier they were hiring for.

okay but I’m seeing GAT hiring in places like greensboro ogden pensacola Austin and amarillo

PITFlyer330 wrote:

jetmatt777 wrote:

PITFlyer330 wrote:

what do you mean by GAT hiring led to something?

Someone in upper management at Breeze was connected to ground handling company GAT. Usually where GAT has hired Breeze ended up being the carrier they were hiring for.

okay but I’m seeing GAT hiring in places like greensboro ogden pensacola Austin and amarillo

All places I would say are safe Breeze Bets.

jplatts wrote:

lat41 wrote:

WN has retreated in New England as the offerings at BOS, PVD MHT and BDL have shriveled up starting even before the pandemic so HVN getting their attention might be difficult. Otherwise carriers who serve Avelo destinations via their hubs know they have to offer rock bottom fares or concede traffic to those points. Would they still be interested? DL to DTW or UA to ORD perhaps sound realistic.

PWM actually had stronger demand for WN service in Summer 2021 than in Summer 2019, whereas most of the other Northeastern U.S. markets served by WN had weaker demand for WN service in Summer 2021 than in Summer 2019.

Don't confuse demand with amount of service offered when reviewing WN and its New England destinations. Southwest put the squeeze on MHT and PVD as examples, the demand didn't just vanish.

Cboyle wrote:

[threeid][/threeid]

Cboyle wrote:

Wneast wrote:

I saw ISP has announcement on Monday anyone think it’s the rumored next base for avelo ?

In my opinionated mind, the ISP announcement is probably B6, NK, or MX, but MX said last time they were announcing routes before the airports got to them. B6 sounds like this announcement with their alliance with AA and their presence in the NY area.

Disregard that: the announcement appears to be MX. GAT is hiring there, and you know what happened last time with that speculation…

GAT aside MX would be my guess anyway. They used ISP as a base for their proving runs and I was surprised they didn't include them in the initial roundup of routes. ISP could make sense for Avelo but, unless its in a bid to shift some -800 flying out east I doubt they'll divert any -700s away from HVN right now. We already know theres a 7th and possibly more destinations in store with the 4th aircraft and, at least 5 -700s coming here.