winginit
Posts: 2514
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Re: Delta and Virgin to launch LGW-JFK and BOS from 2020

Thu Apr 04, 2019 11:18 pm

Fargo wrote:
BOS is not as fragmented of a market as some people think, it has a large B6 presence plus large spokes for AA/UA as well as a plethora of international service (on all 3 alliances).


I think you'll find what you typed above in purple is the very definition... of a fragmented market...
 
grbauc
Posts: 1335
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Re: Delta and Virgin to launch LGW-JFK and BOS from 2020

Thu Apr 04, 2019 11:35 pm

[*]
gatibosgru wrote:
If B6 goes to LHR instead of LGW not the biggest blow, but a clear message is sent.

DL extra aggressive lately!


Yep, and AA silent and in retreat mode. I guess when you aren't the biggest airline in the world it makes you hungry. AA not so much so. DP leave while your on top you did it all and the impossible. Time for a fresh direction new blood at AA.
 
skipness1E
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Re: Delta and Virgin to launch LGW-JFK and BOS from 2020

Thu Apr 04, 2019 11:35 pm

Delta dropped Gatwick before the summer 2012 season, I was close :)
 
FSDan
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Re: Delta and Virgin to launch LGW-JFK and BOS from 2020

Thu Apr 04, 2019 11:44 pm

Fargo wrote:
But are DL's yields any good out of BOS? I suspect not (tphuang, can you post some data?). DL has already stated they do not intend to turn BOS into a hub, yet, they continue to invest tons of $$$ as if they are building one. There are other areas of their network that they need to focus on.


I'm guessing DL thinks they can stick it out until they get the yields they want, otherwise we wouldn't see them adding. That may or may not happen in the timeframe DL is willing to operate in, but as of now DL apparently feels they stand to gain from adding more flights in key business markets. Whether or not DL calls it a "hub" is irrelevant - it essentially is one at this point. This summer DL will have ~130 daily departures and will serve 45 destinations (with 10 more flights and 3 more destinations coming online in September). And although the principle target of the operation is the local business traffic, DL will absolutely be selling connections such as BUF-BOS-LHR, MCO-BOS-LIS, and PIT-BOS-BDA.

Fargo wrote:
BOS is not as fragmented of a market as some people think, it has a large B6 presence plus large spokes for AA/UA as well as a plethora of international service (on all 3 alliances). B6 could add the routes you mentioned and then some. BOS is well served and would not skip a beat if DL's focus city didn't exist.


What you just described sounds pretty fragmented... As of this summer, B6 will have ~160 departures, DL will have ~130 departures, AA will have ~95 departures, UA will have ~45, WN will have ~35, and other mainline carriers (both domestic and international) will account for another 90+. Compare that to most other large airports, and you'll find only one or two (LAX, MCO, etc.) that are less fragmented than BOS.

Sure, B6 could add some more medium sized domestic markets, but with large CRJs and E-Jets at their disposal, DL will always have greater fleet flexibility to make those types of markets work. I could see DL succeeding with further adds like BOS-MSN, BOS-SDF, and BOS-MEM, which would be much better suited to 1-2 daily E70/E75 flights than to B6's E90s or eventual A220s.

Fargo wrote:
P.S. SJC and AUS are still spokes for DL, however, the latter will likely be elevated to at least focus city status pretty soon.


Yep, I never said those two were focus cities. Only that they've seen above average growth.
This is my signature until I think of a better one.
 
emuwarveteran
Posts: 134
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Re: Delta and Virgin to launch LGW-JFK and BOS from 2020

Thu Apr 04, 2019 11:47 pm

i read this as "LGA - JFK" at first and was extremely confused for a moment...

anyways this is a pretty good idea considering the congestion at Heathrow
CL CRJ9, W6 A320
 
B752OS
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Re: Delta and Virgin to launch LGW-JFK and BOS from 2020

Fri Apr 05, 2019 12:03 am

This site can be quite entertaining when you have people claiming, or sounding as if they know the airline business better than an actual airline, in this case Delta. Delta is not successful by accident, they know what they're doing and they have their reasons for wanting to build up Boston.
 
Fargo
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Re: Delta and Virgin to launch LGW-JFK and BOS from 2020

Fri Apr 05, 2019 12:07 am

FSDan wrote:
Fargo wrote:
But are DL's yields any good out of BOS? I suspect not (tphuang, can you post some data?). DL has already stated they do not intend to turn BOS into a hub, yet, they continue to invest tons of $$$ as if they are building one. There are other areas of their network that they need to focus on.


I'm guessing DL thinks they can stick it out until they get the yields they want, otherwise we wouldn't see them adding. That may or may not happen in the timeframe DL is willing to operate in, but as of now DL apparently feels they stand to gain from adding more flights in key business markets. Whether or not DL calls it a "hub" is irrelevant - it essentially is one at this point. This summer DL will have ~130 daily departures and will serve 45 destinations (with 10 more flights and 3 more destinations coming online in September). And although the principle target of the operation is the local business traffic, DL will absolutely be selling connections such as BUF-BOS-LHR, MCO-BOS-LIS, and PIT-BOS-BDA.

Fargo wrote:
BOS is not as fragmented of a market as some people think, it has a large B6 presence plus large spokes for AA/UA as well as a plethora of international service (on all 3 alliances). B6 could add the routes you mentioned and then some. BOS is well served and would not skip a beat if DL's focus city didn't exist.


What you just described sounds pretty fragmented... As of this summer, B6 will have ~160 departures, DL will have ~130 departures, AA will have ~95 departures, UA will have ~45, WN will have ~35, and other mainline carriers (both domestic and international) will account for another 90+. Compare that to most other large airports, and you'll find only one or two (LAX, MCO, etc.) that are less fragmented than BOS.

Sure, B6 could add some more medium sized domestic markets, but with large CRJs and E-Jets at their disposal, DL will always have greater fleet flexibility to make those types of markets work. I could see DL succeeding with further adds like BOS-MSN, BOS-SDF, and BOS-MEM, which would be much better suited to 1-2 daily E70/E75 flights than to B6's E90s or eventual A220s.

Fargo wrote:
P.S. SJC and AUS are still spokes for DL, however, the latter will likely be elevated to at least focus city status pretty soon.


Yep, I never said those two were focus cities. Only that they've seen above average growth.


Fragmented was the wrong term to use, underserved was more of what I was getting at. BOS would not be underserved without the DL focus city. If they feel the need to invest in BOS, by all means do it, but I just can't imagine it is making lots of money with all the competition, and with other areas of their network that still need attention (i.e, SEA and Texas/South Central US), I am just wondering why they are spending so much time on BOS.
 
Fargo
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Re: Delta and Virgin to launch LGW-JFK and BOS from 2020

Fri Apr 05, 2019 12:09 am

B752OS wrote:
This site can be quite entertaining when you have people claiming, or sounding as if they know the airline business better than an actual airline, in this case Delta. Delta is not successful by accident, they know what they're doing and they have their reasons for wanting to build up Boston.


Most people aren't claiming they know more, but isn't the point of this forum to ask questions and engage in conversations?
 
FSDan
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Re: Delta and Virgin to launch LGW-JFK and BOS from 2020

Fri Apr 05, 2019 12:53 am

Fargo wrote:
Fragmented was the wrong term to use, underserved was more of what I was getting at. BOS would not be underserved without the DL focus city. If they feel the need to invest in BOS, by all means do it, but I just can't imagine it is making lots of money with all the competition, and with other areas of their network that still need attention (i.e, SEA and Texas/South Central US), I am just wondering why they are spending so much time on BOS.


BOS is certainly much better served today than it was 5 years ago, but for now I still think DL fills a somewhat unique space at BOS. For example, markets like IND and CMH are better off with 3-4 daily flights on DL E70/E75s than they would be with 1-2 daily flights on an LCC E90/320/737. Pull back the DL operation, and lots of medium sized markets would lose all their first class seats along with better frequency. Also, don't forget that not too long ago, BOS was arguably underserved. It's the 6th biggest CSA in the country, after all - just behind the Bay Area and just ahead of the DFW Metroplex.

Regarding other areas of the network needing attention, I'd say DL actually has more rounding out to do at BOS than at SEA. SEA has relatively few major holes left at this point - DFW is probably at the top, and then maybe RNO and STL after that. I'm not convinced DL needs to serve SEA-OAK or ONT since those are secondary airports in metro areas DL already serves well from SEA, and I don't see them jumping into SEA-IAH or SEA-PHL (although I'll never say never).

From BOS, in addition to a filling a few bigger holes like SAN, DFW, DEN, or STL, I think DL still has the opportunity to add several routes to small/medium cities where they are historically strong. I'm thinking 1-2 daily flights on large RJs to the likes of OMA, MSN, GRR, SDF, MEM, TYS, GSP, and GSO. Those are the types of routes that other airlines aren't as likely to jump on, and where DL has strong PoS on the spoke end. We'll see if they go down that path, but I think they're more likely to succeed with those types of routes than they would be serving smaller markets from SEA (all of which already have AS serving them sufficiently). And there almost certainly would be a quicker ROI from developing routes like the above than from attempting to build a presence in the intra-TX market from AUS...
This is my signature until I think of a better one.
 
questions
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Re: Delta and Virgin to launch LGW-JFK and BOS from 2020

Fri Apr 05, 2019 12:58 am

To what degree is there risk that DL/VS LGW flights will cannibalize DL/VS LHR revenue?

To what degree are these DL/VS flights attributed to growth?

Will B6 have enough flights to LGW to be a threat to DL/VS’s JFK/BOS-LHR flights?
 
DENTK
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Re: Delta and Virgin to launch LGW-JFK and BOS from 2020

Fri Apr 05, 2019 1:01 am

What does a steak with Delta-flavored marinate taste like?
 
tphuang
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Re: Delta and Virgin to launch LGW-JFK and BOS from 2020

Fri Apr 05, 2019 1:12 am

FSDan wrote:
Fargo wrote:
But are DL's yields any good out of BOS? I suspect not (tphuang, can you post some data?). DL has already stated they do not intend to turn BOS into a hub, yet, they continue to invest tons of $$$ as if they are building one. There are other areas of their network that they need to focus on.


I'm guessing DL thinks they can stick it out until they get the yields they want, otherwise we wouldn't see them adding. That may or may not happen in the timeframe DL is willing to operate in, but as of now DL apparently feels they stand to gain from adding more flights in key business markets. Whether or not DL calls it a "hub" is irrelevant - it essentially is one at this point. This summer DL will have ~130 daily departures and will serve 45 destinations (with 10 more flights and 3 more destinations coming online in September). And although the principle target of the operation is the local business traffic, DL will absolutely be selling connections such as BUF-BOS-LHR, MCO-BOS-LIS, and PIT-BOS-BDA.

I'm going to post fare data on BOS tomorrow on the JetBlue thread. Feel free to check it out, but the numbers are kind of what you expect based on their current pricing power at BOS. And their pricing power hasn't seemed to improved from a year ago. They do well on markets without B6 competition (CMH/IND/CVG) or with strong DL root (MCO/BNA), but they really struggle in markets without either or can't support multiple carriers (SFO/PIT/BUF/JAX/AUS/FLL/MCI).

It seems to me a lot of DL's route selection is based on how much they can hurt B6 + partner (like BUF/PIT/SAV/CHS/FLL/SAV/LIS) rather than what's actually good for building a more profitable network at BOS. I think a lot of that is due to B6 tanking their yields on ATL/MSP. I can't say if that was also the case in SEA, since I wasn't around when it first started.

Fargo wrote:
BOS is not as fragmented of a market as some people think, it has a large B6 presence plus large spokes for AA/UA as well as a plethora of international service (on all 3 alliances). B6 could add the routes you mentioned and then some. BOS is well served and would not skip a beat if DL's focus city didn't exist.


What you just described sounds pretty fragmented... As of this summer, B6 will have ~160 departures, DL will have ~130 departures, AA will have ~95 departures, UA will have ~45, WN will have ~35, and other mainline carriers (both domestic and international) will account for another 90+. Compare that to most other large airports, and you'll find only one or two (LAX, MCO, etc.) that are less fragmented than BOS.

Sure, B6 could add some more medium sized domestic markets, but with large CRJs and E-Jets at their disposal, DL will always have greater fleet flexibility to make those types of markets work. I could see DL succeeding with further adds like BOS-MSN, BOS-SDF, and BOS-MEM, which would be much better suited to 1-2 daily E70/E75 flights than to B6's E90s or eventual A220s.

Remember B6 does not peak in summer time. It peaks in March and April where it's already at 175 flights a day and will be at 175 flights a day in September. It simply needs those aircraft for JFK's summer schedule. And over the long run, B6 has the ability with the gate space to go up to 210 to 225 flights a date with the gate resources they already have and it will be all mainline. DL is flying mostly RJ. So B6 domestic market share is probably going to hit 40% in the next few years given their current growth plan. Remember, they are already at close to 185 flights for next March with the currently scheduled increases. It's not going to be very hard for them to add another 20 to 30 flights to get there. BOS is getting more dominated by B6 over time, not less. Since DL's buildup, B6 has gained in RASM vs legacy carriers rather than lost. This B6 shared publicly in their recent investor day presentation. The only problem is that BOS as a whole has gotten really low yielding, probably the lowest yielding market in the country.

As for medium sized domestic locations, E90 and A220 does give them the option to add markets like SDF/MEM at much lower cost than DL RJ. BOS is gate constrained. The move for DL to increase relevance and compete with B6 in cost is to upgauge and move away from RJ rather than increase it.
 
Cunard
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Re: Delta and Virgin to launch LGW-JFK and BOS from 2020

Fri Apr 05, 2019 1:24 am

DENTK wrote:
What does a steak with Delta-flavored marinate taste like?


Can I ask (in a Stewey Griffin) voice :-)

I don't know ''What does a steak with Delta-flavoured marinate taste like?

Are you asking or waiting for someone to tell you :-)

I personally don't get your post.
94 Countries, 327 Destinations Worldwide, 32 Airlines, 29 Aircraft Types, 182 Airports, 335 Flights.
 
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pitbosflyer
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Re: Delta and Virgin to launch LGW-JFK and BOS from 2020

Fri Apr 05, 2019 1:31 am

S0Y wrote:
gatibosgru wrote:
I'm interested to see what the interior of the refurbed 764s will be like. Have they started mods yet?


34J, 20PE, 28Y+, 156Y
images in video https://news.delta.com/new-paths-across ... k-jfk-2020


Pics of the 764s here. https://thepointsguy.com/news/delta-777 ... trofitted/

Basically the new delta one suites without the doors.
 
N649DL
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Re: Delta and Virgin to launch LGW-JFK and BOS from 2020

Fri Apr 05, 2019 1:38 am

Is this more or less DL covering for VS on their own metal on BOS-LGW?

Not sure why DL would want to go back to LGW anyway? I recall for a short while around 2009-2019 they flew ATL to both LGW and LHR and LGW eventually went away.
 
rj777
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Re: Delta and Virgin to launch LGW-JFK and BOS from 2020

Fri Apr 05, 2019 3:38 am

Sounds like the 767s aren't going anywhere!
 
questions
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Re: Delta and Virgin to launch LGW-JFK and BOS from 2020

Fri Apr 05, 2019 3:48 am

Unless this is preemptive protection against erosion at LHR due to cheap alternatives at LGW, it does seem that DL/VS could find more profitable routes to which they could allocate aircraft.
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: Delta and Virgin to launch LGW-JFK and BOS from 2020

Fri Apr 05, 2019 6:12 am

Odd that they're being so vague about who will actually operate the LGW routes.

While I'm more than willing to bet it will be VS, for the cost/handling reasons given, they've (in their marketing) left the door open for it to be DL metal there as well...
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
Boeing74741R
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Re: Delta and Virgin to launch LGW-JFK and BOS from 2020

Fri Apr 05, 2019 7:00 am

skipness1E wrote:
TC957 wrote:
Why does everyone think LGW doesn't get any business traffic ? Just try coming off a flight from the US and heading for the Financial City area of London on public transport like trains using LGW instead of LHR and I'll think you'll find LGW wins 9 times out of 10.

Because Gatwick does not exist in isolation and business travellers prefer frequency and lounges, both of which abound in much larger quantities at LHR. For example BA’s LGW-JFK is the only London widebody they fly to JFK with no F offered. The lack of connections from partners is also a concern in the Gatwick market. But great news all the same but it will be interesting to see how this pans out. I wonder if they suspect Norwegian will fold?


Not every business traveller will fly in First for whatever reason. I suspect these flights are more aimed for those that have London/SE England as their origin/destination as LGW is more convenient for some folk than LHR. If I was living in closer proximity to LGW I'd be delighted. For anyone travelling on these particular flights who value lounge access, there's also a fairly new VS Clubhouse that opened when they switched terminals and any Virgin Holidays passengers have the LGW V:Room which you won't find at LHR.

It'll be interesting to see how these flights perform and whoever operates them, it's good to see some of the flights with airlines that decamped to LHR slowly returning and having an offering from both airports.
 
hibtastic
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Re: Delta and Virgin to launch LGW-JFK and BOS from 2020

Fri Apr 05, 2019 8:08 am

I wonder if some A321NeoLRs would be useful at VS for some of the thinner TATL routes. Perhaps they could have operated the likes of LGW-BOS with those. It just seems that the A332/3 would be too much plane.

I suppose DL will operate it with a 752 though.
 
SeanM1997
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Re: Delta and Virgin to launch LGW-JFK and BOS from 2020

Fri Apr 05, 2019 10:09 am

Could we see some swapping between Virgin and Delta, to release Virgin fleet to boost services at Gatwick or Manchester?

For instance, could Delta replace Virgin on 1x daily London Heathrow flights to Boston, Los Angeles, New York JFK and Seattle?
 
airbazar
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Re: Delta and Virgin to launch LGW-JFK and BOS from 2020

Fri Apr 05, 2019 12:15 pm

NickolayAv wrote:
Honestly, I think DL & B6 have been pushing out the other legacy carriers + WN as opposed to pushing each other.

This right here! Thank you. I've been saying this since this whole DL vs. B6 argument started a year or so ago when both airlines announced their growth plans for BOS. People forget that AA and not DL was until last year the #2 airline at BOS.
 
SteelChair
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Re: Delta and Virgin to launch LGW-JFK and BOS from 2020

Fri Apr 05, 2019 1:00 pm

airbazar wrote:
NickolayAv wrote:
Honestly, I think DL & B6 have been pushing out the other legacy carriers + WN as opposed to pushing each other.

This right here! Thank you. I've been saying this since this whole DL vs. B6 argument started a year or so ago when both airlines announced their growth plans for BOS. People forget that AA and not DL was until last year the #2 airline at BOS.


AA continues their long, slow decline. Just another example. I wonder how long their BOD will tolerate their inept management team?
 
tphuang
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Re: Delta and Virgin to launch LGW-JFK and BOS from 2020

Fri Apr 05, 2019 1:02 pm

For today, just to keep things in perspective
B6 is at 172 flights.
DL is at 123 flights.
AA is at 93 flights.
Considering DL is mostly RJ and AA is almost all mainline, it wouldn't surprise me if AA still has more seats out of BOS right now. I think however DL has overtaken AA in ASM, since they have more transcon and international stuff, whereas AA is mostly to nearby hubs.

FSDan wrote:
Fargo wrote:
Fragmented was the wrong term to use, underserved was more of what I was getting at. BOS would not be underserved without the DL focus city. If they feel the need to invest in BOS, by all means do it, but I just can't imagine it is making lots of money with all the competition, and with other areas of their network that still need attention (i.e, SEA and Texas/South Central US), I am just wondering why they are spending so much time on BOS.


BOS is certainly much better served today than it was 5 years ago, but for now I still think DL fills a somewhat unique space at BOS. For example, markets like IND and CMH are better off with 3-4 daily flights on DL E70/E75s than they would be with 1-2 daily flights on an LCC E90/320/737. Pull back the DL operation, and lots of medium sized markets would lose all their first class seats along with better frequency. Also, don't forget that not too long ago, BOS was arguably underserved. It's the 6th biggest CSA in the country, after all - just behind the Bay Area and just ahead of the DFW Metroplex.

How are 36 inch FC on RJ that much better than 38 inch Y+ seat on E90? You are seriously going to argue that B6 doesn't have a good hard product to satisfy customers?

yes, before DL expansion, the fare environment in BOS was better than NYC, but that's low bar. Now, it's certainly worse. There are not too many places in DL network where they are pricing 2600 mile flights (BOS-SFO) with $399 F seats and $150 Y seats all through the calendar or D1 seats for all flights out of BOS-LAX at sub $600 and Y seat for $110.

Just pick any random date a month out of SEA and put BOS in there followed by some other transcon destinations that DL serves and check the Y prices.
Regarding other areas of the network needing attention, I'd say DL actually has more rounding out to do at BOS than at SEA. SEA has relatively few major holes left at this point - DFW is probably at the top, and then maybe RNO and STL after that. I'm not convinced DL needs to serve SEA-OAK or ONT since those are secondary airports in metro areas DL already serves well from SEA, and I don't see them jumping into SEA-IAH or SEA-PHL (although I'll never say never).

From BOS, in addition to a filling a few bigger holes like SAN, DFW, DEN, or STL, I think DL still has the opportunity to add several routes to small/medium cities where they are historically strong. I'm thinking 1-2 daily flights on large RJs to the likes of OMA, MSN, GRR, SDF, MEM, TYS, GSP, and GSO. Those are the types of routes that other airlines aren't as likely to jump on, and where DL has strong PoS on the spoke end. We'll see if they go down that path, but I think they're more likely to succeed with those types of routes than they would be serving smaller markets from SEA (all of which already have AS serving them sufficiently). And there almost certainly would be a quicker ROI from developing routes like the above than from attempting to build a presence in the intra-TX market from AUS...

Well thanks to eagerly jumping into routes like BUF/PIT/CLE, they are now gate constrained for those cities you are thinking about.

NickolayAv wrote:

I would argue that a lot of B6's expansion in BOS recently has been a response to DL's expansion. I think B6 wouldn't be expanding in BOS as much if it didn't have the need to remain top-dog over Delta.
Obviously, B6 can expand further at BOS, however, they are currently undergoing a process to increase on-time performance, with more block time and less plane rotation through different hubs, this will likely decrease the amount of expansion B6 plans to do in BOS in the upcoming years.
Honestly, I think DL & B6 have been pushing out the other legacy carriers + WN as opposed to pushing each other.
Finally, I think ultimately the dust is going to settle on all of this expansion, sort of the way it is in SEA right now.


I would agree that B6 has picked up their speed of expansion at BOS due to the DL buildup, but it was always their goal to get to 40 to 50% domestic market share and 200 flights. Now with DL buildup, I think they are forced to do some stuff they would not have otherwise done like going to almost hourly flights to DCA, cut IAD, have 6 to 7 daily flights to BUF/SYR/ROC, 6 flights a day to PIT in order to protect their market position. Remember, they do have access to 30 gates at BOS. If EI/TP moves into terminal E after 2021, that will leave B6 with a lot of space to add a flight. Doing 7 to 8 turns a day to reach 220 daily flights shouldn't be too difficult. And after that, we will see if they can get more gates off terminal B. Those 3 flights a day out of ORH are kept around to make MassPort happy.

Even with their OTP initiatives, they are scheduled to hit 185 flights by next spring and they are going to receive more gates which will open up space for more flights. I think all of their initiatives require more man power and plane resources. They don't necessarily take up more gate holding time. They are certainly willing to sacrifice growth at other focus cities to keep BOS growing.
 
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Dieuwer
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Re: Delta and Virgin to launch LGW-JFK and BOS from 2020

Fri Apr 05, 2019 3:09 pm

BA shows trash yields on LGW-JFK compared to DY. So why would DL be better off? I suspect DL will also get trash yields on LGW-BOS compared to DY. In fact, VS4ever & tphuang have shown us that DL already get trash yields/loads on BOS-LHR. So are they doubling down on their losses?
 
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pitbosflyer
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Re: Delta and Virgin to launch LGW-JFK and BOS from 2020

Fri Apr 05, 2019 3:22 pm

Part of me wonders if they are going to decide who will fly the route only after B6 announces their plans. Could be the difference between VS flying a wide body and DL flying a 757. If they really want to trash the yields and throw tons of capacity on JFK/BOS - LGW to hurt B6/DY, the wide body would be the way to do it. But its going to hurt DL/VS.

Although people are also pretty sure that B6 isn't even going to mess with LGW and go for LHR. So who knows.
 
FSDan
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Re: Delta and Virgin to launch LGW-JFK and BOS from 2020

Fri Apr 05, 2019 5:01 pm

tphuang wrote:
It seems to me a lot of DL's route selection is based on how much they can hurt B6 + partner (like BUF/PIT/SAV/CHS/FLL/SAV/LIS) rather than what's actually good for building a more profitable network at BOS. I think a lot of that is due to B6 tanking their yields on ATL/MSP. I can't say if that was also the case in SEA, since I wasn't around when it first started.


Maybe a bit, but most of the markets you referenced also have decent DL brand recognition and loyalty (LIS being the exception) which helps the routes do well from the spoke side. That's a pretty big difference between B6 and DL at BOS, I think - on the non-BOS end of most routes, DL has a way stronger market presence than B6. B6 is really strong in Florida, New York, New England, and the Caribbean, but they aren't generally even a top-5 airline in most markets outside those areas. DL tends to be one of the top few airlines in most medium to large markets across the U.S., simply because of their size. All that to say, when DL picks markets to add from BOS, I think they're looking to improve their position on both ends of the route.

I'd say their newest round of adds coming in September (ORD, DCA, EWR) is pretty clearly targeted at attracting more corporate customers, rather than specifically aimed at B6.

tphuang wrote:
DL is flying mostly RJ.


Not true, actually. Through the summer schedule, DL will be just above 50% mainline. BOS is by no means one of DL's highest % mainline stations, but "mostly RJ" is definitely misleading. I think I've corrected you on that point before, too.

tphuang wrote:
As for medium sized domestic locations, E90 and A220 does give them the option to add markets like SDF/MEM at much lower cost than DL RJ. BOS is gate constrained. The move for DL to increase relevance and compete with B6 in cost is to upgauge and move away from RJ rather than increase it.


If both airlines started up those markets, I would bet on DL to win out in the long run. RJs aren't always the wrong aircraft - sometimes that's the best fit for what the market can handle capacity-wise. Also, B6 would be starting from 0 in those markets as far as brand loyalty goes, while DL already has strong bases to build on.
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FSDan
Posts: 2417
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Re: Delta and Virgin to launch LGW-JFK and BOS from 2020

Fri Apr 05, 2019 5:19 pm

tphuang wrote:
How are 36 inch FC on RJ that much better than 38 inch Y+ seat on E90? You are seriously going to argue that B6 doesn't have a good hard product to satisfy customers?


I didn't say anything about hard product, actually. But if you want to talk hard product, I know plenty of folks who would give up 2 inches of legroom in order to have a bit more elbow room. I'm pretty unfamiliar with B6's Y+ product, but as far as I can tell it's still 4-across on E90s and 6-across on 320s. Definitely not the same as a domestic F seat, even on an RJ.

tphuang wrote:
Well thanks to eagerly jumping into routes like BUF/PIT/CLE, they are now gate constrained for those cities you are thinking about.


DL still has some space to expand. They're taking over 5 WN gates in September, but only adding about 10 daily flights initially above the summer schedule. In comparison, WN was operating 35+ flights out of those gates. I think DL could ramp up to 165-170 daily flights at BOS if they wanted to.
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tphuang
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Re: Delta and Virgin to launch LGW-JFK and BOS from 2020

Fri Apr 05, 2019 5:21 pm

FSDan wrote:
tphuang wrote:
It seems to me a lot of DL's route selection is based on how much they can hurt B6 + partner (like BUF/PIT/SAV/CHS/FLL/SAV/LIS) rather than what's actually good for building a more profitable network at BOS. I think a lot of that is due to B6 tanking their yields on ATL/MSP. I can't say if that was also the case in SEA, since I wasn't around when it first started.


Maybe a bit, but most of the markets you referenced also have decent DL brand recognition and loyalty (LIS being the exception) which helps the routes do well from the spoke side. That's a pretty big difference between B6 and DL at BOS, I think - on the non-BOS end of most routes, DL has a way stronger market presence than B6. B6 is really strong in Florida, New York, New England, and the Caribbean, but they aren't generally even a top-5 airline in most markets outside those areas. DL tends to be one of the top few airlines in most medium to large markets across the U.S., simply because of their size. All that to say, when DL picks markets to add from BOS, I think they're looking to improve their position on both ends of the route.

I'd say their newest round of adds coming in September (ORD, DCA, EWR) is pretty clearly targeted at attracting more corporate customers, rather than specifically aimed at B6.

Have you looked at the numbers on those routes I mentioned. They are really not good. I mentioned those stations explicitly because I've looked at several quarters of data. I mean I'm posting them right now in the JetBlue thread. Would it be possible for you to just go there and take a look?

tphuang wrote:
DL is flying mostly RJ.


Not true, actually. Through the summer schedule, DL will be just above 50% mainline. BOS is by no means one of DL's highest % mainline stations, but "mostly RJ" is definitely misleading. I think I've corrected you on that point before, too.

That's because fortress hubs/transcon stuff have to be mainline. It would be crazy for them to fly BOS-MSP on regional. All remaining route with the exception of a couple of Florida ones are on RJ. and DCA/EWR/ORD will certainly put it over 50%.

tphuang wrote:
As for medium sized domestic locations, E90 and A220 does give them the option to add markets like SDF/MEM at much lower cost than DL RJ. BOS is gate constrained. The move for DL to increase relevance and compete with B6 in cost is to upgauge and move away from RJ rather than increase it.


If both airlines started up those markets, I would bet on DL to win out in the long run. RJs aren't always the wrong aircraft - sometimes that's the best fit for what the market can handle capacity-wise. Also, B6 would be starting from 0 in those markets as far as brand loyalty goes, while DL already has strong bases to build on.

I think evidence would say you are wrong here. They've run UA off CLE and AA off PIT/BUF and DL off most of Florida (before their recent adds). These were all markets they started with nothing.

I think you seriously underestimate B6's pricing power out of BOS. You should take a look at certain routes like BOS-BNA/RDU/AUS to see how well they do in markets where they have zero brand loyalty. But I can't convince you otherwise, if you don't look at what I've been posting.

tphuang wrote:
Well thanks to eagerly jumping into routes like BUF/PIT/CLE, they are now gate constrained for those cities you are thinking about.


DL still has some space to expand. They're taking over 5 WN gates in September, but only adding about 10 daily flights initially above the summer schedule. In comparison, WN was operating 35+ flights out of those gates. I think DL could ramp up to 165-170 daily flights at BOS if they wanted to.

DL is not WN. WN is a special carrier in gate usage. Their most recent prognosis is 157 flights for next summer. We will see if they can get there.
 
FSDan
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Re: Delta and Virgin to launch LGW-JFK and BOS from 2020

Fri Apr 05, 2019 7:24 pm

tphuang wrote:
Have you looked at the numbers on those routes I mentioned. They are really not good. I mentioned those stations explicitly because I've looked at several quarters of data. I mean I'm posting them right now in the JetBlue thread. Would it be possible for you to just go there and take a look?

I looked earlier and there weren't numbers for anything but the transcons. BOS-SFO and BOS-LAX certainly aren't star performers for DL, but they were beating B6 on BOS-SEA and BOS-LAS, and handily beating them (unsurprisingly) on BOS-SLC. If you've posted additional numbers, I'll go back and take another look. I definitely appreciate the numbers you post, but I will say that your conclusions from the numbers often don't seem to match up with how DL feels about them. They obviously are happy enough with their expansion up to this point that they feel it's worth it to add more business markets in the Fall.

tphuang wrote:
DL is flying mostly RJ.

FSDan wrote:
Not true, actually. Through the summer schedule, DL will be just above 50% mainline. BOS is by no means one of DL's highest % mainline stations, but "mostly RJ" is definitely misleading. I think I've corrected you on that point before, too.

That's because fortress hubs/transcon stuff have to be mainline. It would be crazy for them to fly BOS-MSP on regional. All remaining route with the exception of a couple of Florida ones are on RJ. and DCA/EWR/ORD will certainly put it over 50%.

You can add a bunch of qualifiers, but your original statement was still misleading at best. If you subtract AA's fortress hub and transcon flights from their mainline stats, their operation at BOS is "mostly RJ" as well...

Also, even though DL's RJ % will climb above 50% in the Fall, I still don't think "mostly RJ" is accurate. Would you say that the U.S. Senate is "mostly Republican" right now? Probably not.

tphuang wrote:
As for medium sized domestic locations, E90 and A220 does give them the option to add markets like SDF/MEM at much lower cost than DL RJ. BOS is gate constrained. The move for DL to increase relevance and compete with B6 in cost is to upgauge and move away from RJ rather than increase it.

FSDan wrote:
If both airlines started up those markets, I would bet on DL to win out in the long run. RJs aren't always the wrong aircraft - sometimes that's the best fit for what the market can handle capacity-wise. Also, B6 would be starting from 0 in those markets as far as brand loyalty goes, while DL already has strong bases to build on.

I think evidence would say you are wrong here. They've run UA off CLE and AA off PIT/BUF and DL off most of Florida (before their recent adds). These were all markets they started with nothing.

I think you seriously underestimate B6's pricing power out of BOS. You should take a look at certain routes like BOS-BNA/RDU/AUS to see how well they do in markets where they have zero brand loyalty. But I can't convince you otherwise, if you don't look at what I've been posting.

I don't think the examples of how B6 has fared against AA and UA in non-hub markets are really applicable here. For years, both AA and UA have been following strategies to cut non-hub flying and strengthen their hubs. Honestly, I'm surprised AA still flies to MDT, ROC, and SYR from BOS given that those (along with PIT-RDU) are basically the only P2P routes they have left. And CLE for UA is down to just hubs, DCA and LGA (both within markets where UA has hubs), and some mostly-seasonal beach flying. DL, on the other hand, has been following a strategy where they work on building market share in economically vibrant non-hub cities where they feel they can capture significant business traffic.

I may be underestimating B6 slightly - although I want to point out that I'm not claiming they're failing or anything like that - but I think you're probably overestimating the likelihood that DL will blink. They haven't retracted much in any of their expansion markets this decade.

tphuang wrote:
Well thanks to eagerly jumping into routes like BUF/PIT/CLE, they are now gate constrained for those cities you are thinking about.

FSDan wrote:
DL still has some space to expand. They're taking over 5 WN gates in September, but only adding about 10 daily flights initially above the summer schedule. In comparison, WN was operating 35+ flights out of those gates. I think DL could ramp up to 165-170 daily flights at BOS if they wanted to.

DL is not WN. WN is a special carrier in gate usage. Their most recent prognosis is 157 flights for next summer. We will see if they can get there.

DL will have 16 gates this summer (WN will still have their 5) and will be operating up to 129 daily flights. That's approximately 8 flights per gate. I don't see why they wouldn't be able to get the same gate utilization out of the 5 gates they get in mid-September. DL's pretty good at efficient operations.
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richierich
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Re: Delta and Virgin to launch LGW-JFK and BOS from 2020

Fri Apr 05, 2019 7:33 pm

bkflyguy wrote:
gatibosgru wrote:
If B6 goes to LHR instead of LGW not the biggest blow, but a clear message is sent.

DL extra aggressive lately!


Taking a page from the NW playbook - NW aggressively defended its turf and would announce routes or dump capacity to drive out competitors and then pull the flight or reduce capacity once the threat was eliminated.


How did that work out for them?
None shall pass!!!!
 
skipness1E
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Re: Delta and Virgin to launch LGW-JFK and BOS from 2020

Fri Apr 05, 2019 7:52 pm

Dieuwer wrote:
BA shows trash yields on LGW-JFK compared to DY. So why would DL be better off? I suspect DL will also get trash yields on LGW-BOS compared to DY. In fact, VS4ever & tphuang have shown us that DL already get trash yields/loads on BOS-LHR. So are they doubling down on their losses?

Neither BA nor DY openly publish yields on a route by route basis, I would say BA have a lower yield than a comparable LHR service but how do we get to DY having a higher yield than BA?
 
smartplane
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Re: Delta and Virgin to launch LGW-JFK and BOS from 2020

Fri Apr 05, 2019 7:52 pm

Perhaps B6 will take the opportunity to strengthen their partnership with EK?
 
tphuang
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Re: Delta and Virgin to launch LGW-JFK and BOS from 2020

Fri Apr 05, 2019 7:59 pm

FSDan wrote:
I looked earlier and there weren't numbers for anything but the transcons. BOS-SFO and BOS-LAX certainly aren't star performers for DL, but they were beating B6 on BOS-SEA and BOS-LAS, and handily beating them (unsurprisingly) on BOS-SLC. If you've posted additional numbers, I'll go back and take another look. I definitely appreciate the numbers you post, but I will say that your conclusions from the numbers often don't seem to match up with how DL feels about them. They obviously are happy enough with their expansion up to this point that they feel it's worth it to add more business markets in the Fall.

Not star performers is a giant understatement to how they've performed on BOS-SFO/LAX vs other D1 routes.

DL is in a buildup phase. It's adding on markets where it thinks it can beat B6. I don't think losses are that important to them right now. Otherwise, going to 5x on BOS-PIT makes no sense.
I don't think the examples of how B6 has fared against AA and UA in non-hub markets are really applicable here. For years, both AA and UA have been following strategies to cut non-hub flying and strengthen their hubs. Honestly, I'm surprised AA still flies to MDT, ROC, and SYR from BOS given that those (along with PIT-RDU) are basically the only P2P routes they have left. And CLE for UA is down to just hubs, DCA and LGA (both within markets where UA has hubs), and some mostly-seasonal beach flying. DL, on the other hand, has been following a strategy where they work on building market share in economically vibrant non-hub cities where they feel they can capture significant business traffic.

I may be underestimating B6 slightly - although I want to point out that I'm not claiming they're failing or anything like that - but I think you're probably overestimating the likelihood that DL will blink. They haven't retracted much in any of their expansion markets this decade.

DL will have 16 gates this summer (WN will still have their 5) and will be operating up to 129 daily flights. That's approximately 8 flights per gate. I don't see why they wouldn't be able to get the same gate utilization out of the 5 gates they get in mid-September. DL's pretty good at efficient operations.

This goes back to your original statement that because B6 does not have brand loyalty in the other market, it will not succeed. I listed CLE and PIT, because they are two markets where AA/UA has significant ff for historical reasons and B6 slowly pushed them out. The vast majority of business markets out of BOS are markets where they have very little brand loyalty, yet they have no problem sticking around in them. I've posted all the numbers now. Those E90s out of BOS generate very high fares to business markets and they have significant cost advantage over legacy RJ.

I'm not saying DL with retreat, but you said DL would win out in those markets in long run, when there is entirely the possibility that both airlines will stick through. Can you think of any important market B6 has quit on out of BOS in their buildup? I don't understand what's the rationale for them to quit when they do well on pretty much every non-fortress hub out of BOS. If B6 can have more flight and capacity (+higher yield than DL mainline) on BOS-RDU, why would they be fearful of markets with much less DL presence. It makes no sense.

DL management in the past said they will be at 150 flights by 2018 and they + their partners reach 140 by this summer peak season. So if they are saying they will be up to 157 flights by 2020, I'm going to assume that's the most they will get to. Back to the original point, B6 has been able to make markets like SAV/CHS/OAK/SMF/PSP work out of which has very little O&D. Why would MSN/SDF/GSP/MEM be more difficult that?

Anyhow, I'm way off topic. I'm out now. Check the numbers I posted.
 
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VS4ever
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Re: Delta and Virgin to launch LGW-JFK and BOS from 2020

Fri Apr 05, 2019 8:16 pm

skipness1E wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:
BA shows trash yields on LGW-JFK compared to DY. So why would DL be better off? I suspect DL will also get trash yields on LGW-BOS compared to DY. In fact, VS4ever & tphuang have shown us that DL already get trash yields/loads on BOS-LHR. So are they doubling down on their losses?

Neither BA nor DY openly publish yields on a route by route basis, I would say BA have a lower yield than a comparable LHR service but how do we get to DY having a higher yield than BA?


The general consensus on DL on BOS-LHR is that the front of the house was carrying the back because although the overall loads were poor in the past, the front was making up for it. There's never been commentary on trash yields because frankly the only people that know that are the revenue guys at DL, certainly not me, that's for sure. However loads for DL have picked up a bit in recent times and their JV with VS helped mitigate the risks somewhat anyway.

What I have said about DY is that since they started BOS-LGW their loads have been excellent, again no indication of yields, however... once DY moved out OSL and CPH from the BOS rotation and went daily LGW, they have still held up on loads, even running a 344 seat 789 on the route. As I have said in other areas of this site. DY is really in no position to move above daily, and B6 isn't ready, so if DL/VS can see what i see which is LGW running pretty full most of the time for DY, why wouldn't they give this a punt, they did for DUB and at least on the load front has increased the market alongside EI. There's no guarantee of success and I for one am more skeptical of the 2nd daily VS flight competing with BA against this option.

from T-100 data, total flights, total seats, total pax, load %

BOS-LHR - DL (roughly 208-210 seats per flight)
1) 50 10,459 6,042 57.77%
2) 42 8,828 4,631 52.46%
3) 52 10,903 8,290 76.03%
4) 58 12,138 8,364 68.91%
5) 62 12,884 9,258 71.86%
6) 60 12,545 10,910 86.97%
7) 62 12,953 11,504 88.81%
8) 62 12,903 11,684 90.55%
9) 60 12,472 10,206 81.83%

BOS-LHR - VS (270 + per flight)
1) 56 14,752 9,642 65.36%
2) 47 12,852 7,322 56.97%
3) 53 14,496 11,414 78.74%
4) 60 18,480 12,373 66.95%
5) 62 19,096 12,725 66.64%
6) 60 18,304 15,982 87.31%
7) 62 16,808 14,527 86.43%
8) 62 16,032 14,481 90.33%
9) 60 17,080 13,291 77.82%

BOS-LGW - DI (this is YTD, i didn't split the months out for 2018 yet and it's on my other computer, but i think those figures say it all anyway)

493 169,592 155,143 91.48% (315 pax on each and every flight effectively)

Again, this says NOTHING about yields, but as I said, DL is taking the opportunity to give this a go whether it's VS or DL metal, I say more power to them, because in terms of butts on seats, LGW has done very well, the question is.. will DL stimulate a further increase in the market without cannibalizing the good parts of LHR and let's not forget the plan for the DL metal is to increase by going to the 764 at 238 seats over the 210 now. The strategists rightly or wrongly have seen an opportunity here. Time will tell whether it's proven to be a good one or not.
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FSDan
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Re: Delta and Virgin to launch LGW-JFK and BOS from 2020

Fri Apr 05, 2019 9:40 pm

tphuang wrote:
DL is in a buildup phase. It's adding on markets where it thinks it can beat B6. I don't think losses are that important to them right now. Otherwise, going to 5x on BOS-PIT makes no sense.


I think we're in agreement here, except I'd add that DL's not just adding markets for the sake of competing against B6 - they're adding markets they think they need to serve in order to be a contender for the BOS business traffic. The fact B6 serves those markets hasn't deterred DL from jumping in, but IMHO it's not the main reason DL is serving them.

tphuang wrote:
This goes back to your original statement that because B6 does not have brand loyalty in the other market, it will not succeed. I listed CLE and PIT, because they are two markets where AA/UA has significant ff for historical reasons and B6 slowly pushed them out. The vast majority of business markets out of BOS are markets where they have very little brand loyalty, yet they have no problem sticking around in them.


I guess the CLE and PIT examples still seem to me like a case of pushing someone who is already losing their balance. UA and AA placed very little strategic importance on serving those markets from BOS - they were willing to keep flying them until they became unprofitable, but that's it. Whether B6 would have the same level of success in those types of markets against a competitor much more committed to the BOS market is entirely debatable.

tphuang wrote:
I'm not saying DL with retreat, but you said DL would win out in those markets in long run, when there is entirely the possibility that both airlines will stick through. Can you think of any important market B6 has quit on out of BOS in their buildup? I don't understand what's the rationale for them to quit when they do well on pretty much every non-fortress hub out of BOS. If B6 can have more flight and capacity (+higher yield than DL mainline) on BOS-RDU, why would they be fearful of markets with much less DL presence. It makes no sense.


I wasn't talking about DL pushing B6 out of CLE, PIT, BUF, etc. I'm referring to the below markets (MSN/SDF/GSP/MEM) that wouldn't appear to warrant anything bigger than an RJ from BOS. Two airlines serving any of those routes would definitely be overcapacity, and I think DL has equipment better suited to serving those types of markets. There's a reason the legacy airlines all still have significant RJ fleets, and it's not because they enjoy the higher CASM... There are still plenty of markets that are best served by RJs.

tphuang wrote:
Back to the original point, B6 has been able to make markets like SAV/CHS/OAK/SMF/PSP work out of which has very little O&D. Why would MSN/SDF/GSP/MEM be more difficult that?


Out of those, SAV, CHS, and PSP are major leisure destinations. OAK and SMF are basically red-eye utilization flying to very populated metro areas. MSN/SDF/GSP/MEM are not the same types of markets. They lean more heavily towards business traffic (and I'd guess PoS would be skewed away from BOS), and are in smaller population centers than what we've seen B6 successfully serve from BOS thus far.

Who knows, I could be wrong. But B6 serving those types of markets would be a pretty significant departure from their strategy so far.
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Cunard
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Re: Delta and Virgin to launch LGW-JFK and BOS from 2020

Sat Apr 06, 2019 12:33 am

N649DL wrote:
Is this more or less DL covering for VS on their own metal on BOS-LGW?

Not sure why DL would want to go back to LGW anyway? I recall for a short while around 2009-2019 they flew ATL to both LGW and LHR and LGW eventually went away.


Delta started their inaugural transatlantic flight from Atlanta to London Gatwick Airport in May 1978, LGW was the London airport due to the British government's ruling at the time that all new airlines entering the London market had to use Gatwick instead of Heathrow.

Delta had a very successful time at LGW and served the airport for thirty years and for far longer than many other airlines had with quite a varied schedule.

Over those thirty years operations at LGW and with the well established Atlanta route Delta also added other gateways from the USA which overtime included Cincinnati, Detroit, Miami, New York JFK.

When Bermuda II was dismantled in 2008 the US airlines that operated into LGW were instantly given free access to LHR as long as they could obtain slots which was always going to be there first choice hence why eventually they up and left LGW at the first opportunity.

It would take the airline's several years to obtain the slots that they currently have at LHR, in Delta's case the reason why they had flights to Atlanta from both LGW and LHR was due to lack of slots at the latter, it wasn't until the start of the summer schedule in 2012 that Delta found a suitable slot at LHR for the remaining flight from Atlanta to LGW to move.

I'm not particularly surprised if Delta does make a return to LGW with their own metal as I was expecting one of the US3 to eventually return at some point and Delta seems to be the most obvious one out of the three to do so.

I wouldn't be too surprised to see Miami eventually being added from LGW but more than likely on VS metal. (Obviously this would be a resumption).
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questions
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Re: Delta and Virgin to launch LGW-JFK and BOS from 2020

Sat Apr 06, 2019 2:29 am

SteelChair wrote:
AA continues their long, slow decline. Just another example. I wonder how long their BOD will tolerate their inept management team?


The BOD isn’t going to do jack. Don’t assume the BOD is “independent.” The BOD is in bed with the CEO. The BOD only cares about their compensation and country club BOD lifestyle. Period.

Only if the stock price takes a dive or activist pressures become strong will the BOD start to care.

Regardless of how you think corporate governance is suppose to work, the BOD is only there to enrich themselves and the CEO. Period.
 
jbs2886
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Re: Delta and Virgin to launch LGW-JFK and BOS from 2020

Sat Apr 06, 2019 3:10 am

questions wrote:
SteelChair wrote:
AA continues their long, slow decline. Just another example. I wonder how long their BOD will tolerate their inept management team?


The BOD isn’t going to do jack. Don’t assume the BOD is “independent.” The BOD is in bed with the CEO. The BOD only cares about their compensation and country club BOD lifestyle. Period.

Only if the stock price takes a dive or activist pressures become strong will the BOD start to care.

Regardless of how you think corporate governance is suppose to work, the BOD is only there to enrich themselves and the CEO. Period.


This is not even close to accurate for a publicly traded company. I’m sorry that’s your view.
 
N649DL
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Re: Delta and Virgin to launch LGW-JFK and BOS from 2020

Sat Apr 06, 2019 4:50 am

Cunard wrote:
N649DL wrote:
Is this more or less DL covering for VS on their own metal on BOS-LGW?

Not sure why DL would want to go back to LGW anyway? I recall for a short while around 2009-2019 they flew ATL to both LGW and LHR and LGW eventually went away.


Delta started their inaugural transatlantic flight from Atlanta to London Gatwick Airport in May 1978, LGW was the London airport due to the British government's ruling at the time that all new airlines entering the London market had to use Gatwick instead of Heathrow.

Delta had a very successful time at LGW and served the airport for thirty years and for far longer than many other airlines had with quite a varied schedule.

Over those thirty years operations at LGW and with the well established Atlanta route Delta also added other gateways from the USA which overtime included Cincinnati, Detroit, Miami, New York JFK.

When Bermuda II was dismantled in 2008 the US airlines that operated into LGW were instantly given free access to LHR as long as they could obtain slots which was always going to be there first choice hence why eventually they up and left LGW at the first opportunity.

It would take the airline's several years to obtain the slots that they currently have at LHR, in Delta's case the reason why they had flights to Atlanta from both LGW and LHR was due to lack of slots at the latter, it wasn't until the start of the summer schedule in 2012 that Delta found a suitable slot at LHR for the remaining flight from Atlanta to LGW to move.

I'm not particularly surprised if Delta does make a return to LGW with their own metal as I was expecting one of the US3 to eventually return at some point and Delta seems to be the most obvious one out of the three to do so.

I wouldn't be too surprised to see Miami eventually being added from LGW but more than likely on VS metal. (Obviously this would be a resumption).


There's no way DL will restart MIA-London anytime soon. They had an embarrassing fail back in 2010 on MIA-LHR on the 764. Surprisingly, they also dropped EWR and PHL to LHR shortly after launching a few years ago as well.

Unfortunately (and I hate to say it) AA / BA is just really hard to compete with in general when you're DL. That codeshare agreement between AA / BA literally prints money.
 
n2dru
Posts: 129
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Re: Delta and Virgin to launch LGW-JFK and BOS from 2020

Sat Apr 06, 2019 5:01 am

N649DL wrote:
Cunard wrote:
N649DL wrote:
Is this more or less DL covering for VS on their own metal on BOS-LGW?

Not sure why DL would want to go back to LGW anyway? I recall for a short while around 2009-2019 they flew ATL to both LGW and LHR and LGW eventually went away.


Delta started their inaugural transatlantic flight from Atlanta to London Gatwick Airport in May 1978, LGW was the London airport due to the British government's ruling at the time that all new airlines entering the London market had to use Gatwick instead of Heathrow.

Delta had a very successful time at LGW and served the airport for thirty years and for far longer than many other airlines had with quite a varied schedule.

Over those thirty years operations at LGW and with the well established Atlanta route Delta also added other gateways from the USA which overtime included Cincinnati, Detroit, Miami, New York JFK.

When Bermuda II was dismantled in 2008 the US airlines that operated into LGW were instantly given free access to LHR as long as they could obtain slots which was always going to be there first choice hence why eventually they up and left LGW at the first opportunity.

It would take the airline's several years to obtain the slots that they currently have at LHR, in Delta's case the reason why they had flights to Atlanta from both LGW and LHR was due to lack of slots at the latter, it wasn't until the start of the summer schedule in 2012 that Delta found a suitable slot at LHR for the remaining flight from Atlanta to LGW to move.

I'm not particularly surprised if Delta does make a return to LGW with their own metal as I was expecting one of the US3 to eventually return at some point and Delta seems to be the most obvious one out of the three to do so.

I wouldn't be too surprised to see Miami eventually being added from LGW but more than likely on VS metal. (Obviously this would be a resumption).


There's no way DL will restart MIA-London anytime soon. They had an embarrassing fail back in 2010 on MIA-LHR on the 764. Surprisingly, they also dropped EWR and PHL to LHR shortly after launching a few years ago as well.

Unfortunately (and I hate to say it) AA / BA is just really hard to compete with in general when you're DL. That codeshare agreement between AA / BA literally prints money.


DL never operated EWR LHR. They do now via the JV with VS. Also they are already on the MIA-London route, again via the JV. The PHL flight was a remedy slot and had to be operated for a specific amount of time then they were able to move it. It was never intended to be kept. So not really a fail.
 
Boof02671
Posts: 1394
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2016 12:15 am

Re: Delta and Virgin to launch LGW-JFK and BOS from 2020

Sat Apr 06, 2019 5:16 am

First of all B6 doesn’t have a plane for Europe flights yet, two they have no slots and third they aren’t an ETOPS qualified airline not qualified planes.
 
n2dru
Posts: 129
Joined: Thu Nov 09, 2017 7:02 am

Re: Delta and Virgin to launch LGW-JFK and BOS from 2020

Sat Apr 06, 2019 5:41 am

n2dru wrote:
N649DL wrote:
Cunard wrote:

Delta started their inaugural transatlantic flight from Atlanta to London Gatwick Airport in May 1978, LGW was the London airport due to the British government's ruling at the time that all new airlines entering the London market had to use Gatwick instead of Heathrow.

Delta had a very successful time at LGW and served the airport for thirty years and for far longer than many other airlines had with quite a varied schedule.

Over those thirty years operations at LGW and with the well established Atlanta route Delta also added other gateways from the USA which overtime included Cincinnati, Detroit, Miami, New York JFK.

When Bermuda II was dismantled in 2008 the US airlines that operated into LGW were instantly given free access to LHR as long as they could obtain slots which was always going to be there first choice hence why eventually they up and left LGW at the first opportunity.

It would take the airline's several years to obtain the slots that they currently have at LHR, in Delta's case the reason why they had flights to Atlanta from both LGW and LHR was due to lack of slots at the latter, it wasn't until the start of the summer schedule in 2012 that Delta found a suitable slot at LHR for the remaining flight from Atlanta to LGW to move.

I'm not particularly surprised if Delta does make a return to LGW with their own metal as I was expecting one of the US3 to eventually return at some point and Delta seems to be the most obvious one out of the three to do so.

I wouldn't be too surprised to see Miami eventually being added from LGW but more than likely on VS metal. (Obviously this would be a resumption).


There's no way DL will restart MIA-London anytime soon. They had an embarrassing fail back in 2010 on MIA-LHR on the 764. Surprisingly, they also dropped EWR and PHL to LHR shortly after launching a few years ago as well.

Unfortunately (and I hate to say it) AA / BA is just really hard to compete with in general when you're DL. That codeshare agreement between AA / BA literally prints money.


DL never operated EWR LHR. They do now via the JV with VS. Also they are already on the MIA-London route, again via the JV. The PHL flight was a remedy slot and had to be operated for a specific amount of time then they were able to move it. It was never intended to be kept. So not really a fail.



EDIT DL did operate EWRLHR on their own metal...unable to edit for some reason
 
N649DL
Posts: 489
Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2018 10:21 pm

Re: Delta and Virgin to launch LGW-JFK and BOS from 2020

Sat Apr 06, 2019 9:06 am

n2dru wrote:
n2dru wrote:
N649DL wrote:

There's no way DL will restart MIA-London anytime soon. They had an embarrassing fail back in 2010 on MIA-LHR on the 764. Surprisingly, they also dropped EWR and PHL to LHR shortly after launching a few years ago as well.

Unfortunately (and I hate to say it) AA / BA is just really hard to compete with in general when you're DL. That codeshare agreement between AA / BA literally prints money.


DL never operated EWR LHR. They do now via the JV with VS. Also they are already on the MIA-London route, again via the JV. The PHL flight was a remedy slot and had to be operated for a specific amount of time then they were able to move it. It was never intended to be kept. So not really a fail.



EDIT DL did operate EWRLHR on their own metal...unable to edit for some reason


Damn right - I was in EWR B-1 and saw DL the LHR, CDG, AMS all depart at the same time when flying back to LAX via SLC.

And yes, DL did operate EWR-LHR back in 2015 along with CDG / AMS. Nowadays, it seems like DL is focused on domestic ops out of EWR like BOS and RDU
 
gsg013
Posts: 509
Joined: Wed Feb 15, 2017 4:03 pm

Re: Delta and Virgin to launch LGW-JFK and BOS from 2020

Sat Apr 06, 2019 3:11 pm

tphuang wrote:
jumbojet wrote:
tphuang wrote:

Actually I would agree with you here. AA/BA has more on the line given JFK-LHR is their most important route in the network. Imo, it's surprising for DL/VS to announce this route so early if they are gearing up for B6. Adding 1 or 2 flights a day on JFK-LON is nothing considering how much capacity there is.

Why don't we wait a week and see what B6 actually announces.



I just don't see B6 becoming a significant player in the London market. Its taken the majors decades to build up what they have. Maybe in 10 to 20 years Blue will get to the point where DL was before they partnered with VS. I suppose Its also entirely possible, as you 'Blue' folks like to say, that they will be eating their lunch on JFK/BOS - London flights before long!


Don't get hang up on my comments too much.

BA is too strong at London and B6 won't have enough slots to move the market unless there is a massive slot release. But it will give them the ability to get more ff and corporate contract in NYC, which will help the entire system. It's going to be great for everyone. Going to Europe in J will get a lot cheaper. Those one way fares will also come down. All the corporate travel account are going to show B6 pricing, so BA will have to match fares on at least some flights. I don't see why anyone would be against that.

Believe it or not, I rarely fly B6 these days. They simply don't cover my flight needs out of NYC. But if they start flying to more European locations, I will fly them a lot more.

Out of BOS, it's a necessary market for them to enter given their stated aim with corporate clients. I see the J fares on BOS-LON market to come down significantly in a few years. B6 won't dominate, but they will have a nice share of the pie like on BOS-LAX/SFO/SEA, all markets where they have minimal point of sale on the other side.


Agree on this for many years Premium Transcon J and F on AA UA and DL were in the 2-3 K range now with mind you can easily find transcon JFK-LAX-JFK around $1200-$1500.. (I truly believe Mint is the reason for this)... As you said NYC-LON wont have as many slot pairs but I don't see the $8K one way full fare J fairs sticking around too much longer between these two city pairs once Mint comes on it... Occasionally you can find JFK-CDG around $3k round trip in J on AF I see that being a possible new norm for NYC & BOS--LON once mint comes around.
 
Cunard
Posts: 2353
Joined: Fri Nov 11, 2016 6:45 pm

Re: Delta and Virgin to launch LGW-JFK and BOS from 2020

Sat Apr 06, 2019 11:20 pm

N649DL wrote:
Cunard wrote:
N649DL wrote:
Is this more or less DL covering for VS on their own metal on BOS-LGW?

Not sure why DL would want to go back to LGW anyway? I recall for a short while around 2009-2019 they flew ATL to both LGW and LHR and LGW eventually went away.


Delta started their inaugural transatlantic flight from Atlanta to London Gatwick Airport in May 1978, LGW was the London airport due to the British government's ruling at the time that all new airlines entering the London market had to use Gatwick instead of Heathrow.

Delta had a very successful time at LGW and served the airport for thirty years and for far longer than many other airlines had with quite a varied schedule.

Over those thirty years operations at LGW and with the well established Atlanta route Delta also added other gateways from the USA which overtime included Cincinnati, Detroit, Miami, New York JFK.

When Bermuda II was dismantled in 2008 the US airlines that operated into LGW were instantly given free access to LHR as long as they could obtain slots which was always going to be there first choice hence why eventually they up and left LGW at the first opportunity.

It would take the airline's several years to obtain the slots that they currently have at LHR, in Delta's case the reason why they had flights to Atlanta from both LGW and LHR was due to lack of slots at the latter, it wasn't until the start of the summer schedule in 2012 that Delta found a suitable slot at LHR for the remaining flight from Atlanta to LGW to move.

I'm not particularly surprised if Delta does make a return to LGW with their own metal as I was expecting one of the US3 to eventually return at some point and Delta seems to be the most obvious one out of the three to do so.

I wouldn't be too surprised to see Miami eventually being added from LGW but more than likely on VS metal. (Obviously this would be a resumption).


There's no way DL will restart MIA-London anytime soon. They had an embarrassing fail back in 2010 on MIA-LHR on the 764. Surprisingly, they also dropped EWR and PHL to LHR shortly after launching a few years ago as well.

Unfortunately (and I hate to say it) AA / BA is just really hard to compete with in general when you're DL. That codeshare agreement between AA / BA literally prints money.


Not sure if you read my post correctly but in no way was I suggesting Delta restart Miami to London, if you had actually read my post correctly you would have read that I was listing destinations within the USA that Delta had previously flown from to LGW with Miami being one of them and FYI I'm totally aware of the fact that Miami to LHR didn't work out but that's another discussion!
94 Countries, 327 Destinations Worldwide, 32 Airlines, 29 Aircraft Types, 182 Airports, 335 Flights.
 
jumbojet
Posts: 2727
Joined: Mon Dec 29, 2003 3:01 am

Re: Delta and Virgin to launch LGW-JFK and BOS from 2020

Sat Apr 06, 2019 11:57 pm

tphuang wrote:
FSDan wrote:


I'm not saying DL with retreat, but you said DL would win out in those markets in long run, when there is entirely the possibility that both airlines will stick through. Can you think of any important market B6 has quit on out of BOS in their buildup? .


I can. BOS-ATL. Blue went from 5 or 6 daily A320's down to (currently) 3 190's and 2 320's and those flights aren't exactly going out full. The first flight out (ATL - BOS) is a 190 and they cant even fill that up. While that might not be giving up on a market, its pretty close to it. I have seen them drop down to all 190's. I am sure that Blue is losing their shirt on this market. They mine as well just give it up entirely like they did once before, its clearly not working out to well for them. In fact, there are some days they are only flying 4x daily and 3 are on 190's.
 
jumbojet
Posts: 2727
Joined: Mon Dec 29, 2003 3:01 am

Re: Delta and Virgin to launch LGW-JFK and BOS from 2020

Sun Apr 07, 2019 12:59 am

And the only reason Blues bookings look so good on the BOS-ATL flights for the next few weeks is due to spring break. They simply cant compete against DL's 13 daily flights on this route.
 
tphuang
Posts: 2891
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: Delta and Virgin to launch LGW-JFK and BOS from 2020

Sun Apr 07, 2019 1:08 am

jumbojet wrote:
tphuang wrote:
FSDan wrote:


I'm not saying DL with retreat, but you said DL would win out in those markets in long run, when there is entirely the possibility that both airlines will stick through. Can you think of any important market B6 has quit on out of BOS in their buildup? .


I can. BOS-ATL. Blue went from 5 or 6 daily A320's down to (currently) 3 190's and 2 320's and those flights aren't exactly going out full. The first flight out (ATL - BOS) is a 190 and they cant even fill that up. While that might not be giving up on a market, its pretty close to it. I have seen them drop down to all 190's. I am sure that Blue is losing their shirt on this market. They mine as well just give it up entirely like they did once before, its clearly not working out to well for them. In fact, there are some days they are only flying 4x daily and 3 are on 190's.

That discussion was over and had nothing to do with you.

They switched from 5 A320s to 2 A320s and 3 E90s. How is that called quitting? Of course they are loosing money on that route, but that's not the basis of the question. They need to make adjustments to have it work out better. One of the few routes that would definitely be served by A220 in the future. BOS-DTW is a route they make money on now, they have plenty of time to turn ATL around to one that at least performs better.

jumbojet wrote:
And the only reason Blues bookings look so good on the BOS-ATL flights for the next few weeks is due to spring break. They simply cant compete against DL's 13 daily flights on this route.

you want a long list of routes DL can't compete against B6 out of BOS?

By your definition of quitting, DL already quit on BOS-SFO since they went from 2 daily D1 757s to 1 daily non-D1 757 for most part of the year.
 
marcogr12
Posts: 189
Joined: Sun Mar 04, 2018 2:36 pm

Re: Delta and Virgin to launch LGW-JFK and BOS from 2020

Sun Apr 07, 2019 11:27 am

Is a 4-class 764, the refurbished ones from Delta,really suitable for the LGW-market ?Or should it have another configuration,like a 2-or-3 class,suited to the demands of Gatters?I also dont get Delta's distinction between Premium Economy and Economy plus..Are they really that different or is it just a gimmick to milk pax for their money?
Flying is breathing..no planes no life..

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