Yes and the vast majority of the people on those flights are Australians going to and from
New Zealand. Not kiwis. And Australians are not going to support an AA -operated flight from Auckland to LA in the weakest months of the year. Australians will simply fly one of the many nonstops from Australia to the US.
And as Dennis posted, we should know soon
New Zealand is SMALL.l the population is only 4.8 MILLION. That’s simply SMALL. Simply not enough people to support anything more than Air New Zealand. Qantas is but a bit player, flying low fare low yield passengers, in what is already a small market. Sorry.
Provide some facts to support your assertion that Qantas are a "bit player" carrying "low fare low yield" passengers on their Trans Tasman flights or, respectfully, please shut up.
Here are some facts about the Trans-Tasman market:
- In 2015 Qantas had a total of 16,296 seats across the Tasman. In 2018 it had 24,643 - 18.5% of the market now up to 27%
- In 2015 Jetstar had a total of 10,740 seats across the Tasman. In 2018 it had 3,661 - 12.2% of the market now down to 4%
- In 2015 Emirates had a total of 12,677 seats across the Tasman. In 2018 it had 9,000 - 14.4% of the market now down to 9.9%
So what these facts support is that Qantas, the Premium brand, has grown at the expense of Jetstar, the budget brand, and more than replaced capacity of EK, it's premium partner in other markets. That is along with deploying A330's with lie flats across the Tasman all of which supports growth at the Premium end.
So these facts don't really support QF being a bit player on the Premium side of at least part of the New Zealand Market and, for comparison, Air New Zealands 2018 Tasman market share was 34.6%. So not that much greater than Qantas.[/quote]