American Airlines/Qantas Joint Venture Approved

Ishrion · Tue Apr 09, 2019 4:20 pm

Has anyone heard anything on the approval of their JV?

AA/QF originally expected it to be approved in late 2018, but has now moved that expectation to “Early 2019”

winginit · Tue Apr 09, 2019 4:40 pm

I'm curious about this as well. Joyce said in December that he expected approval might slip to 'early' 2019, but the timeline on this one really is surprising given they re-applied in February 2018. That puts us today at the 14 month mark since filing.

To put that 14 month point in context, DL and KE filed for approval in I think June of 2017 after a March MOU, and they secured full approvals by March 2018 - eight months later.

While my experience is now dated, DL have a notoriously aggressive legal team when it comes to submitting and checking in on applications, but I'd be surprised if that was giving them accelerated approvals to the tune of several months. My guess would be the lag with the AA/QF approvals is because of the added consideration of the fact that the previous AA/QF JV application was denied outright.

Rdeggendorfer · Tue Apr 09, 2019 5:21 pm

It wasn’t denied, they pulled the application before it was formally denied or approved with conditions they didn’t like. We don’t know which. Either way, no formal decision was rendered.

Ishrion · Tue Apr 09, 2019 5:24 pm

Rdeggendorfer wrote:
It wasn’t denied, they pulled the application before it was formally denied or approved with conditions they didn’t like. We don’t know which. Either way, no formal decision was rendered.

Uhh I believe that was the 2015/16 JV. They resubmitted one in 2018.

osupoke07 · Tue Apr 09, 2019 6:07 pm

Ishrion wrote:
Rdeggendorfer wrote:
It wasn’t denied, they pulled the application before it was formally denied or approved with conditions they didn’t like. We don’t know which. Either way, no formal decision was rendered.

Uhh I believe that was the 2015/16 JV. They resubmitted one in 2018.

That person was responding to the previous posted and referring to the first JV application from 2015/2016, not saying the 2018 application was denied.

Cheers

NZ321 · Tue Apr 09, 2019 6:10 pm

I sure hope it is approved. NZ/UA/AC need some serious competition to keep things honest. Why wouldn't it be approved? What are the known issues or objections that have to be taken into consideration?

ITSTours · Tue Apr 09, 2019 6:30 pm

NZ321 wrote:
I sure hope it is approved. NZ/UA/AC need some serious competition to keep things honest. Why wouldn't it be approved? What are the known issues or objections that have to be taken into consideration?

NZ-UA JV does not include Australia. AA-QF JV will easily dominate the US-Australia market.

AirbusA322 · Tue Apr 09, 2019 6:31 pm

The lag is probably Virgin.

Who Usually file very comprehensive and detailed objections that forces the regulators to dig deeper. I

They are trying to block three JV’s that QF are going for. CX/HKG, Alliance and this one.

Obviously big upside for DL/VA if this is blocked.

Detroit313 · Tue Apr 09, 2019 8:52 pm

It is getting approved pretty soon.

aacun · Tue Apr 09, 2019 10:41 pm

Detroit313 wrote:
It is getting approved pretty soon.

Thats what the agents in AKL were telling us. Along with a list of routes that will be started down under!!!!!

sagechan · Tue Apr 09, 2019 10:49 pm

AA side is fairly easy to predict, AA upgauges SYD back to 77W, AKL goes back to year round or near year round, MEL and BNE added on 789. Not quite sure what QF does with the frames AA frees up. Probably MEL-DFW, and some others

Ishrion · Tue Apr 09, 2019 11:19 pm

aacun wrote:
Detroit313 wrote:
It is getting approved pretty soon.

Thats what the agents in AKL were telling us. Along with a list of routes that will be started down under!!!!!

Do you have a list of those routes?

smi0006 · Tue Apr 09, 2019 11:27 pm

I’m curious to see what happens here. QF have stated they would launch three new routes, but I expect MEL-SFO was one and not critical to the JV so they launched it. I’d imagine MEL-DFW and BNE-ORD. For AA I see LAX-BNE, and AKL and LAX-MEL seasonal.

QF are sending a 789 to HKG which I would assume is just using a frame waiting for an a decision on the JV. I do think we will see more seasonality in the route map with frequencies adjusted

I do wonder if we’d see NZ/UA respond? Perhaps including AC? But NZ and UA do compete for AU-US traffic do not too sure.

I’d imagine a decision in the next three months surely

Ishrion · Tue Apr 09, 2019 11:58 pm

smi0006 wrote:
I’m curious to see what happens here. QF have stated they would launch three new routes, but I expect MEL-SFO was one and not critical to the JV so they launched it. I’d imagine MEL-DFW and BNE-ORD. For AA I see LAX-BNE, and AKL and LAX-MEL seasonal.

QF are sending a 789 to HKG which I would assume is just using a frame waiting for an a decision on the JV. I do think we will see more seasonality in the route map with frequencies adjusted

I do wonder if we’d see NZ/UA respond? Perhaps including AC? But NZ and UA do compete for AU-US traffic do not too sure.

I’d imagine a decision in the next three months surely

Why not SYD-ORD on Qantas? Range issues I assume?

For AA, they already serve AKL seasonally from LAX so I'm assuming you mean from something like DFW?

UA is launching SFO-MEL this fall against QF's MEL-SFO so there's that.

AC is launching YVR-AKL this winter.

smi0006 · Wed Apr 10, 2019 12:53 am

Ishrion wrote:
smi0006 wrote:
I’m curious to see what happens here. QF have stated they would launch three new routes, but I expect MEL-SFO was one and not critical to the JV so they launched it. I’d imagine MEL-DFW and BNE-ORD. For AA I see LAX-BNE, and AKL and LAX-MEL seasonal.

QF are sending a 789 to HKG which I would assume is just using a frame waiting for an a decision on the JV. I do think we will see more seasonality in the route map with frequencies adjusted

I do wonder if we’d see NZ/UA respond? Perhaps including AC? But NZ and UA do compete for AU-US traffic do not too sure.

I’d imagine a decision in the next three months surely

Why not SYD-ORD on Qantas? Range issues I assume?

For AA, they already serve AKL seasonally from LAX so I'm assuming you mean from something like DFW?

UA is launching SFO-MEL this fall against QF's MEL-SFO so there's that.

AC is launching YVR-AKL this winter.

Yeah I don’t think a 789 could make SYD-ORD even in QFs config. But I could be wrong. Other option is maybe BNE-DFW, as I think this got quiet good loads for BNE when the 744 used to do SYD-DFW-BNE-SYD. But QF have mentioned three new routes, so both certain what the third would be? SEA has been mentioned by a few on here- but personally I have never seen the need or merit for it.

Sorry for AKL I meant year round from LAX.

I’d say QF knew UA was coming to SFO-MEL at some point and wanted the first mover advantage.

Ishrion · Wed Apr 10, 2019 12:57 am

smi0006 wrote:
Ishrion wrote:
smi0006 wrote:
I’m curious to see what happens here. QF have stated they would launch three new routes, but I expect MEL-SFO was one and not critical to the JV so they launched it. I’d imagine MEL-DFW and BNE-ORD. For AA I see LAX-BNE, and AKL and LAX-MEL seasonal.

QF are sending a 789 to HKG which I would assume is just using a frame waiting for an a decision on the JV. I do think we will see more seasonality in the route map with frequencies adjusted

I do wonder if we’d see NZ/UA respond? Perhaps including AC? But NZ and UA do compete for AU-US traffic do not too sure.

I’d imagine a decision in the next three months surely

Why not SYD-ORD on Qantas? Range issues I assume?

For AA, they already serve AKL seasonally from LAX so I'm assuming you mean from something like DFW?

UA is launching SFO-MEL this fall against QF's MEL-SFO so there's that.

AC is launching YVR-AKL this winter.

Yeah I don’t think a 789 could make SYD-ORD even in QFs config. But I could be wrong. Other option is maybe BNE-DFW, as I think this got quiet good loads for BNE when the 744 used to do SYD-DFW-BNE-SYD. But QF have mentioned three new routes, so both certain what the third would be? SEA has been mentioned by a few on here- but personally I have never seen the need or merit for it.

Sorry for AKL I meant year round from LAX.

I’d say QF knew UA was coming to SFO-MEL at some point and wanted the first mover advantage.

https://viewfromthewing.boardingarea.co ... /26/42961/
https://viewfromthewing.boardingarea.co ... nd-coffee/

These say SYD-ORD and MEL-DFW

kimshep · Wed Apr 10, 2019 1:51 am

Ishrion wrote:
https://viewfromthewing.boardingarea.co ... /26/42961/
https://viewfromthewing.boardingarea.co ... nd-coffee/

These say SYD-ORD and MEL-DFW

Both these quotes date from late 2015. I suspect that many details re: Australia <Australia-USA> have changed substantially since then, including fleet types and route desirability. it is like quoting MEL-ORD (which QF was about to launch, and pulled 2 days before 9/11) as being the preferred city pair.

Planes4you · Wed Apr 10, 2019 1:58 pm

Ishrion wrote:
smi0006 wrote:
I’m curious to see what happens here. QF have stated they would launch three new routes, but I expect MEL-SFO was one and not critical to the JV so they launched it. I’d imagine MEL-DFW and BNE-ORD. For AA I see LAX-BNE, and AKL and LAX-MEL seasonal.

QF are sending a 789 to HKG which I would assume is just using a frame waiting for an a decision on the JV. I do think we will see more seasonality in the route map with frequencies adjusted

I do wonder if we’d see NZ/UA respond? Perhaps including AC? But NZ and UA do compete for AU-US traffic do not too sure.

I’d imagine a decision in the next three months surely

Why not SYD-ORD on Qantas? Range issues I assume?

For AA, they already serve AKL seasonally from LAX so I'm assuming you mean from something like DFW?

UA is launching SFO-MEL this fall against QF's MEL-SFO so there's that.

AC is launching YVR-AKL this winter.

Because qantas 787s aren’t flying out of SYD

qf002 · Wed Apr 10, 2019 2:05 pm

Planes4you wrote:
Because qantas 787s aren’t flying out of SYD

Yes they are, started on SYD-HKG in March and will ramp up later this year as 787s replace the remaining 744s (which fly exclusively out of SYD).

SCFlyer · Wed Apr 10, 2019 2:19 pm

qf002 wrote:
Planes4you wrote:
Because qantas 787s aren’t flying out of SYD

Yes they are, started on SYD-HKG in March and will ramp up later this year as 787s replace the remaining 744s (which fly exclusively out of SYD).

The x6 SYD-HKG and x1 BNE-HKG 789 flying is in the interim depending on QF/AA JV approval IIRC. I do recall BNE-SEA mentioned by AJ as a backup (as SEA is a AS hub) should the QF/AA JV not be approved.

Ishrion · Wed Apr 10, 2019 2:47 pm

Planes4you wrote:
Ishrion wrote:
smi0006 wrote:
I’m curious to see what happens here. QF have stated they would launch three new routes, but I expect MEL-SFO was one and not critical to the JV so they launched it. I’d imagine MEL-DFW and BNE-ORD. For AA I see LAX-BNE, and AKL and LAX-MEL seasonal.

QF are sending a 789 to HKG which I would assume is just using a frame waiting for an a decision on the JV. I do think we will see more seasonality in the route map with frequencies adjusted

I do wonder if we’d see NZ/UA respond? Perhaps including AC? But NZ and UA do compete for AU-US traffic do not too sure.

I’d imagine a decision in the next three months surely

Why not SYD-ORD on Qantas? Range issues I assume?

For AA, they already serve AKL seasonally from LAX so I'm assuming you mean from something like DFW?

UA is launching SFO-MEL this fall against QF's MEL-SFO so there's that.

AC is launching YVR-AKL this winter.

Because qantas 787s aren’t flying out of SYD

https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/qf127

Planes4you · Wed Apr 10, 2019 3:31 pm

Ishrion wrote:
Planes4you wrote:
Ishrion wrote:

Why not SYD-ORD on Qantas? Range issues I assume?

For AA, they already serve AKL seasonally from LAX so I'm assuming you mean from something like DFW?

UA is launching SFO-MEL this fall against QF's MEL-SFO so there's that.

AC is launching YVR-AKL this winter.

Because qantas 787s aren’t flying out of SYD

https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/qf127

Ok yeah the 747s retiring makes sense they(787 used to not fly to SYD

Pbb152 · Sat Apr 13, 2019 3:05 am

Planes4you wrote:
Ishrion wrote:
smi0006 wrote:
I’m curious to see what happens here. QF have stated they would launch three new routes, but I expect MEL-SFO was one and not critical to the JV so they launched it. I’d imagine MEL-DFW and BNE-ORD. For AA I see LAX-BNE, and AKL and LAX-MEL seasonal.

QF are sending a 789 to HKG which I would assume is just using a frame waiting for an a decision on the JV. I do think we will see more seasonality in the route map with frequencies adjusted

I do wonder if we’d see NZ/UA respond? Perhaps including AC? But NZ and UA do compete for AU-US traffic do not too sure.

I’d imagine a decision in the next three months surely

Why not SYD-ORD on Qantas? Range issues I assume?

For AA, they already serve AKL seasonally from LAX so I'm assuming you mean from something like DFW?

UA is launching SFO-MEL this fall against QF's MEL-SFO so there's that.

AC is launching YVR-AKL this winter.

Because qantas 787s aren’t flying out of SYD

You really are allergic to facts, aren’t you?

Planes4you · Sat Apr 13, 2019 3:33 am

Pbb152 wrote:
Planes4you wrote:
Ishrion wrote:

Why not SYD-ORD on Qantas? Range issues I assume?

For AA, they already serve AKL seasonally from LAX so I'm assuming you mean from something like DFW?

UA is launching SFO-MEL this fall against QF's MEL-SFO so there's that.

AC is launching YVR-AKL this winter.

Because qantas 787s aren’t flying out of SYD

You really are allergic to facts, aren’t you?

I haven’t been keeping up with Australian aviation because recently the 787s DIDN'T fly out of SYD…

Ishrion · Sat Apr 13, 2019 3:33 am

Pbb152 wrote:
Planes4you wrote:
Ishrion wrote:

Why not SYD-ORD on Qantas? Range issues I assume?

For AA, they already serve AKL seasonally from LAX so I'm assuming you mean from something like DFW?

UA is launching SFO-MEL this fall against QF's MEL-SFO so there's that.

AC is launching YVR-AKL this winter.

Because qantas 787s aren’t flying out of SYD

You really are allergic to facts, aren’t you?

I feel like we've discussed this somewhere else lol.

Pbb152 · Sat Apr 13, 2019 3:36 am

Planes4you wrote:
Pbb152 wrote:
Planes4you wrote:

Because qantas 787s aren’t flying out of SYD

You really are allergic to facts, aren’t you?

I haven’t been keeping up with Australian aviation because recently the 787s DIDN'T fly out of SYD…

Maybe you should do some research before you post incorrect info.

ZK-NBT · Sat Apr 13, 2019 3:38 am

ITSTours wrote:
NZ321 wrote:
I sure hope it is approved. NZ/UA/AC need some serious competition to keep things honest. Why wouldn't it be approved? What are the known issues or objections that have to be taken into consideration?

NZ-UA JV does not include Australia. AA-QF JV will easily dominate the US-Australia market.

And NZ/AC don’t have a JV although I think they applied for one years ago when NZ first started YVR in 2007? AC are now starting a seasonal YVR-AKL, weather they apply for a JV now to cover Australia/NZ-Canada?

NZ dominate AKL-US like QF dominate OZ-US although QF get more competition, it is a much larger market ex Australia.

smi0006 · Sat Apr 13, 2019 4:12 am

ZK-NBT wrote:
ITSTours wrote:
NZ321 wrote:
I sure hope it is approved. NZ/UA/AC need some serious competition to keep things honest. Why wouldn't it be approved? What are the known issues or objections that have to be taken into consideration?

NZ-UA JV does not include Australia. AA-QF JV will easily dominate the US-Australia market.

And NZ/AC don’t have a JV although I think they applied for one years ago when NZ first started YVR in 2007? AC are now starting a seasonal YVR-AKL, weather they apply for a JV now to cover Australia/NZ-Canada?

NZ dominate AKL-US like QF dominate OZ-US although QF get more competition, it is a much larger market ex Australia.

I believe when AC announced AKL, they also highlighted they had signed a MOU with NZ to commence work on a JV.

I find it interesting AA/QF JV includes AU,NZ,US. Yet UA/NZ is NZ/US only. This leads me to believe both Nz/UA have pretty competitive positions carrying traffic ex-AU, and don’t need to rationalise that by sharing costs and revenue.

Ishrion · Wed May 01, 2019 7:24 am

https://australianaviation.com.au/2019/ ... -alliance/

“There’s good news on the horizon,” Parker said during American Airlines’ first quarter results presentation on April 26 (US time).
“We’re very confident that our Qantas JV will be approved to go forward sometime soon.”

"Soon"... so much for "early 2019".

Ishrion · Thu May 30, 2019 4:43 pm

One month later:

https://www.smh.com.au/business/compani ... 51svu.html

"We don’t know for sure, but everything's been submitted and all signs indicate that it will be some time soon," Mr Stache said.

LAXintl · Mon Jun 03, 2019 2:02 am

DOT tentative approval could come as soon as this week.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa- ... SKCN1T4041

Detroit313 · Mon Jun 03, 2019 5:46 am

It seems like an announcement is coming today.

Great news for both AA and Qantas!

janders · Mon Jun 03, 2019 5:51 am

Million dollar question -- will they impose any restrictions, carve-outs, or commitment in return from a green light?

Pcoder · Mon Jun 03, 2019 5:53 am

Reuters is usually very accurate on these reports, so I'll expect some confirmation soon.

It's probably not great for consumers.

YYZORD · Mon Jun 03, 2019 5:56 am

Finally maybe some QF routes to SEA!!!!

grbauc · Mon Jun 03, 2019 6:28 am

Pcoder wrote:
Reuters is usually very accurate on these reports, so I'll expect some confirmation soon.

It's probably not great for consumers.

Airfares are has affordable has 20years ago and that’s not good enough???

Lufthansa · Mon Jun 03, 2019 6:43 am

sagechan wrote:
AA side is fairly easy to predict, AA upgauges SYD back to 77W, AKL goes back to year round or near year round, MEL and BNE added on 789. Not quite sure what QF does with the frames AA frees up. Probably MEL-DFW, and some others

If they can work out their dispute with PER airport (not letting them use the new international facilities they built when taking over the old Virgin terminal
despite the fact a LHR flight already goes from there and they spend a fortune on lounges, customs facilities etc) the obvious choices would be
CDG, FRA and South Africa...either one of CPT (currently not served direct from AU but has a strong demand) or JNB.... with PER having a large
expat SA community who would like an alternative to SAA. It would be a no brainer.

As for AA... the 77W service was very well received at the Australian end. Initially ppl were skeptical as we all know AA went through a difficult
patch and its product reputation wasn't so good, but new lounges, QF miles, and reverse herringbone flat beds won the regulars over. Kind of similar to
what happened to BA on the JFK-LHR shuttle. But if it's metal neutral they don't care, both companies make a profit anyway.

Pcoder · Mon Jun 03, 2019 6:59 am

grbauc wrote:
Pcoder wrote:
Reuters is usually very accurate on these reports, so I'll expect some confirmation soon.

It's probably not great for consumers.

Airfares are has affordable has 20years ago and that’s not good enough???

Umm, I not referring to now obviously, but the issue is that AA/QF could use its market position to push competition out (i.e virgin and delta). This is why the approval took so long.

Detroit313 · Mon Jun 03, 2019 10:37 am

I wonder if we are getting official news today.

chepos · Mon Jun 03, 2019 1:02 pm

This should have been approved the first time around. Either way, hopefully this means the return of AKL to year round and SYD back to the 77W.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

chepos · Mon Jun 03, 2019 1:02 pm

This should have been approved the first time around. Either way, hopefully this means the return of AKL to year round and SYD back to the 77W.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

AAplat4life · Mon Jun 03, 2019 1:08 pm

From what I read, there’s only DOT approval. The DOJ could have a different perspective. Hopefully that will not be an issue.

IndianicWorld · Mon Jun 03, 2019 1:16 pm

chepos wrote:
This should have been approved the first time around. Either way, hopefully this means the return of AKL to year round and SYD back to the 77W.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Honestly, I tend to think the 789 is the right aircraft for LAX-SYD, especially as the route offering continues to fragment.

Opening up more non-LAX routes, along with more non-SYD services, reduces the need for an aircraft of the 77W’s size, especially when viewed in terms of year round demand and supply.

Seems a few steps to go yet though before full approval can be given.

LAXintl · Mon Jun 03, 2019 3:03 pm

Tentatively approved.

Secretary Elaine Chao announces Department of Transportation tentatively grants antitrust immunity for American-Qantas
https://afn.ajot.com/articles/full/secr ... can-qantas

Full order and details of the mentioned conditions being attached to deal should be posted soon.

UPlog · Mon Jun 03, 2019 3:43 pm

Lets see what the conditions are.

Remember last time airlines pulled their application since they did not like the Obama admin proposed conditions.

chepos · Mon Jun 03, 2019 3:49 pm

UPlog wrote:
Lets see what the conditions are.

Remember last time airlines pulled their application since they did not like the Obama admin proposed conditions.

The Obama Admin denied the application.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Ishrion · Mon Jun 03, 2019 3:54 pm

Here it is!

https://www.regulations.gov/document?D= ... -0030-0138

ClassicLover · Mon Jun 03, 2019 4:42 pm

Ishrion wrote:
Here it is!

https://www.regulations.gov/document?D= ... -0030-0138

Thank you for that!

It looks like they have many things to do, but it all looks like it's just about proving they meet the claims they made when they applied. Therefore all systems go really!

dfw88 · Mon Jun 03, 2019 4:42 pm

UPlog wrote:
Lets see what the conditions are.

Remember last time airlines pulled their application since they did not like the Obama admin proposed conditions.

I think you're confusing the QF JV with the LATAM JV, which was indeed pulled because of the proposed conditions. Though, they were Chile's conditions, not from the US.

JAAlbert · Mon Jun 03, 2019 5:10 pm

According to the OSC, QF/AA carry over 50% of the passengers between US/AUS and 54% of the non-stop traffic. The next largest carrier is Delta/Vigin at 18% and 32% for passengers vs nonstop passengers.

I am surprised DOT would allow the creation of such a juggernaut. I'm not convinced that this new beast will result in lower fares and better service based on what I've read of the OSC, but I need to study it more thoroughly. Your thoughts?

it will be interesting to see how Delta and United respond.

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