uta999
Topic Author
Posts: 697
Joined: Mon Jun 14, 2010 11:10 am

Sudan - what now?

Fri Apr 12, 2019 1:39 pm

Sudan could now be about to rejoin the rest of the world after 30 years under President Omar al-Bashir.

With much of the old Sudan Airways fleet grounded at Khartoum, who will step in to create a new airline and will an open-skies policy follow? Tourism even.

It's important this happens quickly, learning from past mistakes elsewhere.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-47908785
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eta unknown
Posts: 2349
Joined: Wed Jun 13, 2001 5:03 am

Re: Sudan - what now?

Fri Apr 12, 2019 2:11 pm

What now... We should all sit still and be patient. Prior to Omar coming to power, KRT wasn't exactly a tourist hotspot, so I'd be surprised if anyone had high expectations.
 
behramjee
Posts: 4931
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Re: Sudan - what now?

Fri Apr 12, 2019 3:39 pm

High demand market segments out of KRT are primarily KSA UAE DOH KWI CAI UK. They really just need only few A321s and A320s for the next 3 years until the situation totally stabilizes.

They do not require a single WB for any route as KRT JED can operate double daily A321 easily instead.
 
CobaltScar
Posts: 434
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Re: Sudan - what now?

Fri Apr 12, 2019 3:40 pm

One huge difference between Ethiopia and Sudan.

Unfortunately Sudan will most likely remain a benighted hole for decades to come. Don't count on tourists except for the crazy kind that constantly get kidnapped and then wonder why their governments won't pay ransom.
 
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chunhimlai
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Re: Sudan - what now?

Fri Apr 12, 2019 4:01 pm

Would SD be QR for the Africa?
 
tu204
Posts: 1912
Joined: Wed Mar 08, 2006 12:36 am

Re: Sudan - what now?

Fri Apr 12, 2019 9:02 pm

I honestly don't see much difference.
The only one being that possibly US sanctions will be lifted and they will be able to buy parts directly for their 737's and maybe get the A320's flying again.
I do not dream about movie stars, they must dream about me for I am real and they are not. - Alexander Popov
 
c933103
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Re: Sudan - what now?

Fri Apr 12, 2019 9:22 pm

If I were an investor I would wait till after the transitional government completed its mission and a more appropriate government being established, with a more appropriate process being successfully established in the country without causing another huge unrest before I would considering invest into the country.
Say NO to Hong Kong police's cooperation with criminal organizations like triad.
 
berari
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Re: Sudan - what now?

Fri Apr 12, 2019 10:15 pm

chunhimlai wrote:
Would SD be QR for the Africa?


In what sense?
 
usflyer msp
Posts: 3303
Joined: Tue May 23, 2000 11:50 am

Re: Sudan - what now?

Fri Apr 12, 2019 10:23 pm

CobaltScar wrote:
One huge difference between Ethiopia and Sudan.

Unfortunately Sudan will most likely remain a benighted hole for decades to come. Don't count on tourists except for the crazy kind that constantly get kidnapped and then wonder why their governments won't pay ransom.


I went to Sudan on vacation last year and I loved it. Where else can you visit ancient Egyptian pyramids and be the only people there. I felt safer in Khartoum than I do in the US. It has a ton of potential.
 
behramjee
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Re: Sudan - what now?

Fri Apr 12, 2019 11:03 pm

chunhimlai wrote:
Would SD be QR for the Africa?


No chance of that happening for a very long time !

If the new military government followed by the transitional government in 2021, keeps things stable from a law & order perspective, the economy will gradually improve as would the inflow of oil investment dollars from the "Seven Sisters" as few U.S. sanctions were already lifted a year ago.

SD till 2022, only needs 2 A321s + 3 A320s maximum to serve its home market needs. They dont need to waste money buying brand new NEOs and instead should look at purchasing used aircraft between 4-6 years old only. The A321s are required for JED,RUH + DXB only whilst the 3 A320s would operate on other MENA routes to CAI, AMM, KWI, DOH, AUH, MCT, DMM, MED, IST, BEY and ADD.

Mind you, SD in the past used to carry a lot of traffic between Kano and Jeddah via Khartoum !
 
CobaltScar
Posts: 434
Joined: Thu Mar 23, 2017 2:30 pm

Re: Sudan - what now?

Fri Apr 12, 2019 11:25 pm

usflyer msp wrote:
CobaltScar wrote:
I felt safer in Khartoum than I do in the US. It has a ton of potential.


You can't be serious. Try Mogadishu next.
 
leftcoast8
Posts: 112
Joined: Wed Aug 03, 2016 12:59 am

Re: Sudan - what now?

Fri Apr 12, 2019 11:39 pm

Zim's aviation prospects didn't improve when Mugabe was replaced by Mnangagwa, and I doubt Sudan will fare much better.

chunhimlai wrote:
Would SD be QR for the Africa?


Ethiopian looks like it will beat SD to the punch, the Flight 302 crash was an exceptionally rare outlier for the airline. With SAA's downward spiral, ET has become the jewel of trans-Africa flights.
 
tu204
Posts: 1912
Joined: Wed Mar 08, 2006 12:36 am

Re: Sudan - what now?

Sat Apr 13, 2019 1:00 am

Khartoum is perfectly safe compared to the neighborhood. And people are friendly. But lets face it - I have never in my my life met any people, as a nation, that are lazier the Sudanese. Might have something to do with the +40 temperatures in Khartoum and most of Sudan.

Inshalla Bukra.
I do not dream about movie stars, they must dream about me for I am real and they are not. - Alexander Popov
 
MalevTU134
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Joined: Tue Oct 11, 2016 8:04 pm

Re: Sudan - what now?

Sat Apr 13, 2019 1:09 am

chunhimlai wrote:
Would SD be QR for the Africa?

How could they? They have no six-runway airport.
 
tu204
Posts: 1912
Joined: Wed Mar 08, 2006 12:36 am

Re: Sudan - what now?

Sat Apr 13, 2019 1:13 am

CobaltScar wrote:
usflyer msp wrote:
CobaltScar wrote:
I felt safer in Khartoum than I do in the US. It has a ton of potential.


You can't be serious. Try Mogadishu next.


I agree with this guy. I felt perfectly safe in Khartoum. People are friendly and don't look at you like a walking wallet unlike other African countries. I had shopkeepers chase me down the street with a couple Sudanese pounds (cause I didn't bother waiting for them to count the change), didn't bother to lock the car since I never had any issues with people stealing from it.

Wouldn't invest a Rouble/dollar into there though since people are so goddamn lazy though. But perfectly safe.
I do not dream about movie stars, they must dream about me for I am real and they are not. - Alexander Popov
 
tu204
Posts: 1912
Joined: Wed Mar 08, 2006 12:36 am

Re: Sudan - what now?

Sat Apr 13, 2019 1:18 am

MalevTU134 wrote:
chunhimlai wrote:
Would SD be QR for the Africa?

How could they? They have no six-runway airport.


And ATC at HSSS is wonderful. They literally have the ability to have 4 aircraft on frequency, and put you in conflict with all the other 3 in one command (they DO have secondary radar). Plus going off to pray and leaving everything unattended is their jewel.
Calling them 5+ times on frequency with no response is totally normal.

Darfur is nice though. Still have a bunch of leather goods I bought in HSNN for like a couple Euros - belts, shoes, sandals... great people.
I do not dream about movie stars, they must dream about me for I am real and they are not. - Alexander Popov
 
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spinkid
Posts: 1866
Joined: Fri Jul 20, 2001 5:59 am

Re: Sudan - what now?

Sat Apr 13, 2019 2:36 am

tu204 wrote:
CobaltScar wrote:
usflyer msp wrote:


You can't be serious. Try Mogadishu next.


I agree with this guy. I felt perfectly safe in Khartoum. People are friendly and don't look at you like a walking wallet unlike other African countries. I had shopkeepers chase me down the street with a couple Sudanese pounds (cause I didn't bother waiting for them to count the change), didn't bother to lock the car since I never had any issues with people stealing from it.

Wouldn't invest a Rouble/dollar into there though since people are so goddamn lazy though. But perfectly safe.



You offer some very conflicting attitudes toward Sudan. One sounding somewhat Progressive, the other outdated and colonial at best, racist at worst.

Perhaps in the recent past Sudan was safe to visit. Without a fully functioning government I wouldn't advise anyone to travel there at the moment. In terms of safety. I can agree many countries around the world are safer than the U.S. Sometimes that is because of a repressive regime that doesn't want you messing with the tourists and their Western Dollars. I don't know your background, but rest assured if you look European, or in some places any race you'll be kidnapped and your home country won't be doing much to help you. While the U.S. has some unsafe areas. Ransom kidnappings are not issue.
Bottom line, you take a certain risk wherever you go. I'd rather face pickpockets in Paris and knowing what areas to avoid in the U.|S. than being held for Ransom in parts of Kenya right now.

Calling the Sudanese Lazy. It seems a bit presumptious. Perhaps they are frustrated by a high unemployment or a system rigged with bribery, or against certain ethnic groups. Life moves much slower in countries in around the equator as well because of the heat.

I suspect their airport will grow if investment grows and sanctions are lifted.
 
bennett123
Posts: 8856
Joined: Sun Aug 15, 2004 12:49 am

Re: Sudan - what now?

Sat Apr 13, 2019 6:29 am

Concerning this issue about the price of goods in Sudan.

There is always a balance, you don’t want to pay over the odds, however an amount that we spend on a coffee is serious money in some countries.
 
GBNWB
Posts: 115
Joined: Thu Sep 29, 2016 4:56 pm

Re: Sudan - what now?

Sat Apr 13, 2019 7:52 am

The million dollar question is do they sell wine in the restaurants of downtown Khartoum? If so, people may eventually visit. If not, then who really cares about the place?
 
bennett123
Posts: 8856
Joined: Sun Aug 15, 2004 12:49 am

Re: Sudan - what now?

Sat Apr 13, 2019 8:12 am

Is access to alcohol your sole concern?.
 
GBNWB
Posts: 115
Joined: Thu Sep 29, 2016 4:56 pm

Re: Sudan - what now?

Sat Apr 13, 2019 8:26 am

bennett123 wrote:
Is access to alcohol your sole concern?.


Not sole, but definitely a factor. If going on holiday to relax from work, I, like many others enjoy a drink in the evening. There are enough places in the world to see without going to the dry ones.

I always had an emergency six pack of Shiner Bock in the car when visiting Mississippi.
 
uta999
Topic Author
Posts: 697
Joined: Mon Jun 14, 2010 11:10 am

Re: Sudan - what now?

Sat Apr 13, 2019 8:37 am

My point was, the EU, US and UK governments should be encouraging the new 'regime' asap, to avoid what is happening in Libya, Iraq and Afghanistan from repeating itself there. If we give the Sudanese people a brighter future, progress, an airline, trade and tourism, investment will follow.

I spent many summer holidays in Khartoum, and Fort Lamy (N'Djamena, Chad) as a child, and the perception most have of the people there could not be more wrong.

Sit around on our hands, then we know what will follow.
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directorguy
Posts: 1359
Joined: Mon Jul 28, 2008 10:58 am

Re: Sudan - what now?

Sat Apr 13, 2019 9:22 am

Still far too early to predict what the outcome of the coup/al-Bashir's removal will be. However the optimist in me believes that a responsible transitional government with wide support will be appointed and things start to improve.

Sudan has some potential for tourism. A lot of ancient stuff from the ancient Egyptian and Nubian civilizations. There have been talks of doing cruises between Lake Nasser in Egypt down to Wadi Halfa in the Sudan and beyond. Some good diving in Port Sudan on the Red Sea coast as well.
Right now the Sudan has a very cumbersome visa policy, relatively weak international connectivity and not much to do. But a concerted effort to change all this might bring results. I am sure there was a time when Vietnam/Georgia/Bosnia had non-existent tourism industries. Look at them now.

In terms of aviation, we'll probably see airlines like MS/TK/FZ increase flights. KLM might probably return. SD if it gets back in action will focus on the Holy Trinity of CAI/JED/DXB and a few obscure African cities in the region.
 
tu204
Posts: 1912
Joined: Wed Mar 08, 2006 12:36 am

Re: Sudan - what now?

Sat Apr 13, 2019 9:46 am

spinkid wrote:
tu204 wrote:
CobaltScar wrote:

You can't be serious. Try Mogadishu next.


I agree with this guy. I felt perfectly safe in Khartoum. People are friendly and don't look at you like a walking wallet unlike other African countries. I had shopkeepers chase me down the street with a couple Sudanese pounds (cause I didn't bother waiting for them to count the change), didn't bother to lock the car since I never had any issues with people stealing from it.

Wouldn't invest a Rouble/dollar into there though since people are so goddamn lazy though. But perfectly safe.



You offer some very conflicting attitudes toward Sudan. One sounding somewhat Progressive, the other outdated and colonial at best, racist at worst.

Perhaps in the recent past Sudan was safe to visit. Without a fully functioning government I wouldn't advise anyone to travel there at the moment. In terms of safety. I can agree many countries around the world are safer than the U.S. Sometimes that is because of a repressive regime that doesn't want you messing with the tourists and their Western Dollars. I don't know your background, but rest assured if you look European, or in some places any race you'll be kidnapped and your home country won't be doing much to help you. While the U.S. has some unsafe areas. Ransom kidnappings are not issue.
Bottom line, you take a certain risk wherever you go. I'd rather face pickpockets in Paris and knowing what areas to avoid in the U.|S. than being held for Ransom in parts of Kenya right now.

Calling the Sudanese Lazy. It seems a bit presumptious. Perhaps they are frustrated by a high unemployment or a system rigged with bribery, or against certain ethnic groups. Life moves much slower in countries in around the equator as well because of the heat.

I suspect their airport will grow if investment grows and sanctions are lifted.


I laid it out how it is. No need to call me racist or what not. It's just the way they are for whatever reasons. Nothing is done fast and nobody is in a hurry to do anything. Even greeting someone takes about a minute "How are you, how is your wife, how are your kids" and so on. It's their culture and honestly I think this will be difficult to change and will hinder any major development in Sudan. I'm not saying that I have anything against them, just that this is the way they are. I actually found the people to be very friendly and hospitable, and being a white European never felt out of place being the "visible minority" unlike other African countries where people stare at you/run up and ask for money just cause you are white...
I do not dream about movie stars, they must dream about me for I am real and they are not. - Alexander Popov
 
uta999
Topic Author
Posts: 697
Joined: Mon Jun 14, 2010 11:10 am

Re: Sudan - what now?

Sat Apr 13, 2019 12:00 pm

This part of East Africa still has some pretty interesting aviation though. A DC-3 Turbine. This one is 74 years old.

https://www.flightradar24.com/N467SP/20242a8c
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ME720
Posts: 164
Joined: Tue Jun 19, 2012 3:40 pm

Re: Sudan - what now?

Sat Apr 13, 2019 2:48 pm

tu204 wrote:
I honestly don't see much difference.
The only one being that possibly US sanctions will be lifted and they will be able to buy parts directly for their 737's and maybe get the A320's flying again.


US sanctions already lifted a few years ago. They were lifted when el bashir’s regime joined KSA and the UAE and US’s war on Yemen. They even forgot
About his crimes in Darfur ... criminals are no longer
Criminals when they start working with the US.

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